Controlling alcohol availability through local policy: an observational study to evaluate Cumulative Impact Zones in a London borough.

Background: Cumulative impact zones (CIZs) are a discretionary policy lever available to local government, used to restrict the availability of alcohol in areas deemed already saturated. Despite little evidence of their effect, over 200 such zones have been introduced. This study explores the impact of three CIZs on the licensing of venues in the London Borough of Southwark. Methods: Using 10 years of licensing data, we examined changes in the issuing of licences on the introduction of three CIZs within Southwark, relative to control areas. The number of licence applications made (N = 1110), the number issued, and the proportion objected to, were analysed using negative binomial regression. Results: In one area tested, CIZ implementation was associated with 119% more licence applications than control areas (incidence rate ratios (IRR) = 2.19, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.29-3.73, P = 0.004) and 133% more licences granted (IRR = 2.33, 95% CI: 1.31-4.16, P = 0.004). No significant effect was found for the other two areas. CIZs were found to have no discernible effect on the relative proportion of licence applications receiving objections. Conclusions: CIZs are proposed as a key lever to limit alcohol availability in areas of high outlet density. We found no evidence that CIZ establishment reduced the number of successful applications in Southwark.

Is number sense impaired in chronic pain patients?

BACKGROUND: Recent advances in imaging have improved our understanding of the role of the brain in painful conditions. Discoveries of morphological changes have been made in patients with chronic pain, with little known about the functional consequences when they occur in areas associated with 'number-sense'; thus, it can be hypothesized that chronic pain impairs this sense. METHODS: First, an audit of the use of numbers in gold-standard pain assessment tools in patients with acute and chronic pain was undertaken. Secondly, experiments were conducted with patients with acute and chronic pain and healthy controls. Participants marked positions of numbers on lines (number marking), before naming numbers on pre-marked lines (number naming). Finally, subjects bisected lines flanked with '2' and '9'. Deviations from expected responses were determined for each experiment. RESULTS: Four hundred and ninety-four patients were audited; numeric scores in the 'moderate' and 'severe' pain categories were significantly higher in chronic compared with acute pain patients. In experiments (n=150), more than one-third of chronic pain patients compared with 1/10th of controls showed greater deviations from the expected in number marking and naming indicating impaired number sense. Line bisection experiments suggest prefrontal and parietal cortical dysfunction as cause of this impairment. CONCLUSIONS: Audit data suggest patients with chronic pain interpret numbers differently from acute pain sufferers. Support is gained by experiments indicating impaired number sense in one-third of chronic pain patients. These results cast doubts on the appropriateness of the use of visual analogue and numeric rating scales in chronic pain in clinics and research.

Developing and validating a risk prediction model for acute care based on frailty syndromes.

OBJECTIVES: Population ageing may result in increased comorbidity, functional dependence and poor quality of life. Mechanisms and pathophysiology underlying frailty have not been fully elucidated, thus absolute consensus on an operational definition for frailty is lacking. Frailty scores in the acute medical care setting have poor predictive power for clinically relevant outcomes. We explore the utility of frailty syndromes (as recommended by national guidelines) as a risk prediction model for the elderly in the acute care setting. SETTING: English Secondary Care emergency admissions to National Health Service (NHS) acute providers. PARTICIPANTS: There were N=2,099,252 patients over 65 years with emergency admission to NHS acute providers from 01/01/2012 to 31/12/2012 included in the analysis. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes investigated include inpatient mortality, 30-day emergency readmission and institutionalisation. We used pseudorandom numbers to split patients into train (60%) and test (40%). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and ordering the patients by deciles of predicted risk was used to assess model performance. Using English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data, we built multivariable logistic regression models with independent variables based on frailty syndromes (10th revision International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Injuries and Causes of Death (ICD-10) coding), demographics and previous hospital utilisation. Patients included were those>65 years with emergency admission to acute provider in England (2012). RESULTS: Frailty syndrome models exhibited ROC scores of 0.624-0.659 for inpatient mortality, 0.63-0.654 for institutionalisation and 0.57-0.63 for 30-day emergency readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty syndromes are a valid predictor of outcomes relevant to acute care. The models predictive power is in keeping with other scores in the literature, but is a simple, clinically relevant and potentially more acceptable measurement for use in the acute care setting. Predictive powers of the score are not sufficient for clinical use.

Quantifying the prevalence of frailty in English hospitals.

OBJECTIVES: Population ageing has been associated with an increase in comorbid chronic disease, functional dependence, disability and associated higher health care costs. Frailty Syndromes have been proposed as a way to define this group within older persons. We explore whether frailty syndromes are a reliable methodology to quantify clinically significant frailty within hospital settings, and measure trends and geospatial variation using English secondary care data set Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). SETTING: National English Secondary Care Administrative Data HES. PARTICIPANTS: All 50,540,141 patient spells for patients over 65 years admitted to acute provider hospitals in England (January 2005-March 2013) within HES. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We explore the prevalence of Frailty Syndromes as coded by International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Injuries and Causes of Death (ICD-10) over time, and their geographic distribution across England. We examine national trends for admission spells, inpatient mortality and 30-day readmission. RESULTS: A rising trend of admission spells was noted from January 2005 to March 2013 (daily average admissions for month rising from over 2000 to over 4000). The overall prevalence of coded frailty is increasing (64,559 spells in January 2005 to 150,085 spells by Jan 2013). The majority of patients had a single frailty syndrome coded (10.2% vs total burden of 13.9%). Cognitive impairment and falls (including significant fracture) are the most common frailty syndromes coded within HES. Geographic variation in frailty burden was in keeping with known distribution of prevalence of the English elderly population and location of National Health Service (NHS) acute provider sites. Overtime, in-hospital mortality has decreased (>65 years) whereas readmission rates have increased (esp.>85 years). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a novel methodology to reliably quantify clinically significant frailty. Applications include evaluation of health service improvement over time, risk stratification and optimisation of services.