TimeTeller: A tool to probe the circadian clock as a multigene dynamical system.

Recent studies have established that the circadian clock influences onset, progression and therapeutic outcomes in a number of diseases including cancer and heart diseases. Therefore, there is a need for tools to measure the functional state of the molecular circadian clock and its downstream targets in patients. Moreover, the clock is a multi-dimensional stochastic oscillator and there are few tools for analysing it as a noisy multigene dynamical system. In this paper we consider the methodology behind TimeTeller, a machine learning tool that analyses the clock as a noisy multigene dynamical system and aims to estimate circadian clock function from a single transcriptome by modelling the multi-dimensional state of the clock. We demonstrate its potential for clock systems assessment by applying it to mouse, baboon and human microarray and RNA-seq data and show how to visualise and quantify the global structure of the clock, quantitatively stratify individual transcriptomic samples by clock dysfunction and globally compare clocks across individuals, conditions and tissues thus highlighting its potential relevance for advancing circadian medicine.

Prediction of photoperiodic regulators from quantitative gene circuit models.

Photoperiod sensors allow physiological adaptation to the changing seasons. The prevalent hypothesis is that day length perception is mediated through coupling of an endogenous rhythm with an external light signal. Sufficient molecular data are available to test this quantitatively in plants, though not yet in mammals. In Arabidopsis, the clock-regulated genes CONSTANS (CO) and FLAVIN, KELCH, F-BOX (FKF1) and their light-sensitive proteins are thought to form an external coincidence sensor. Here, we model the integration of light and timing information by CO, its target gene FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT), and the circadian clock. Among other predictions, our models show that FKF1 activates FT. We demonstrate experimentally that this effect is independent of the known activation of CO by FKF1, thus we locate a major, novel controller of photoperiodism. External coincidence is part of a complex photoperiod sensor: modeling makes this complexity explicit and may thus contribute to crop improvement.

Geometry of gene regulatory dynamics.

Embryonic development leads to the reproducible and ordered appearance of complexity from egg to adult. The successive differentiation of different cell types that elaborate this complexity results from the activity of gene networks and was likened by Waddington to a flow through a landscape in which valleys represent alternative fates. Geometric methods allow the formal representation of such landscapes and codify the types of behaviors that result from systems of differential equations. Results from Smale and coworkers imply that systems encompassing gene network models can be represented as potential gradients with a Riemann metric, justifying the Waddington metaphor. Here, we extend this representation to include parameter dependence and enumerate all three-way cellular decisions realizable by tuning at most two parameters, which can be generalized to include spatial coordinates in a tissue. All diagrams of cell states vs. model parameters are thereby enumerated. We unify a number of standard models for spatial pattern formation by expressing them in potential form (i.e., as topographic elevation). Turing systems appear nonpotential, yet in suitable variables the dynamics are low dimensional and potential. A time-independent embedding recovers the original variables. Lateral inhibition is described by a saddle point with many unstable directions. A model for the patterning of the Drosophila eye appears as relaxation in a bistable potential. Geometric reasoning provides intuitive dynamic models for development that are well adapted to fit time-lapse data.

Quantifying cell transitions in C. elegans with data-fitted landscape models.

Increasing interest has emerged in new mathematical approaches that simplify the study of complex differentiation processes by formalizing Waddington's landscape metaphor. However, a rational method to build these landscape models remains an open problem. Here we study vulval development in C. elegans by developing a framework based on Catastrophe Theory (CT) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to build data-fitted landscape models. We first identify the candidate qualitative landscapes, and then use CT to build the simplest model consistent with the data, which we quantitatively fit using ABC. The resulting model suggests that the underlying mechanism is a quantifiable two-step decision controlled by EGF and Notch-Delta signals, where a non-vulval/vulval decision is followed by a bistable transition to the two vulval states. This new model fits a broad set of data and makes several novel predictions.

Multiplexing information flow through dynamic signalling systems.

We consider how a signalling system can act as an information hub by multiplexing information arising from multiple signals. We formally define multiplexing, mathematically characterise which systems can multiplex and how well they can do it. While the results of this paper are theoretical, to motivate the idea of multiplexing, we provide experimental evidence that tentatively suggests that the NF-κB transcription factor can multiplex information about changes in multiple signals. We believe that our theoretical results may resolve the apparent paradox of how a system like NF-κB that regulates cell fate and inflammatory signalling in response to diverse stimuli can appear to have the low information carrying capacity suggested by recent studies on scalar signals. In carrying out our study, we introduce new methods for the analysis of large, nonlinear stochastic dynamic models, and develop computational algorithms that facilitate the calculation of fundamental constructs of information theory such as Kullback-Leibler divergences and sensitivity matrices, and link these methods to a new theory about multiplexing information. We show that many current models such as those of the NF-κB system cannot multiplex effectively and provide models that overcome this limitation using post-transcriptional modifications.

Disentangling juxtacrine from paracrine signalling in dynamic tissue.

Prolactin is a major hormone product of the pituitary gland, the central endocrine regulator. Despite its physiological importance, the cell-level mechanisms of prolactin production are not well understood. Having significantly improved the resolution of real-time-single-cell-GFP-imaging, the authors recently revealed that prolactin gene transcription is highly dynamic and stochastic yet shows space-time coordination in an intact tissue slice. However, it still remains an open question as to what kind of cellular communication mediates the observed space-time organization. To determine the type of interaction between cells we developed a statistical model. The degree of similarity between two expression time series was studied in terms of two distance measures, Euclidean and geodesic, the latter being a network-theoretic distance defined to be the minimal number of edges between nodes, and this was used to discriminate between juxtacrine from paracrine signalling. The analysis presented here suggests that juxtacrine signalling dominates. To further determine whether the coupling is coordinating transcription or post-transcriptional activities we used stochastic switch modelling to infer the transcriptional profiles of cells and estimated their similarity measures to deduce that their spatial cellular coordination involves coupling of transcription via juxtacrine signalling. We developed a computational model that involves an inter-cell juxtacrine coupling, yielding simulation results that show space-time coordination in the transcription level that is in agreement with the above analysis. The developed model is expected to serve as the prototype for the further study of tissue-level organised gene expression for epigenetically regulated genes, such as prolactin.

Systems Chronotherapeutics.

Chronotherapeutics aim at treating illnesses according to the endogenous biologic rhythms, which moderate xenobiotic metabolism and cellular drug response. The molecular clocks present in individual cells involve approximately fifteen clock genes interconnected in regulatory feedback loops. They are coordinated by the suprachiasmatic nuclei, a hypothalamic pacemaker, which also adjusts the circadian rhythms to environmental cycles. As a result, many mechanisms of diseases and drug effects are controlled by the circadian timing system. Thus, the tolerability of nearly 500 medications varies by up to fivefold according to circadian scheduling, both in experimental models and/or patients. Moreover, treatment itself disrupted, maintained, or improved the circadian timing system as a function of drug timing. Improved patient outcomes on circadian-based treatments (chronotherapy) have been demonstrated in randomized clinical trials, especially for cancer and inflammatory diseases. However, recent technological advances have highlighted large interpatient differences in circadian functions resulting in significant variability in chronotherapy response. Such findings advocate for the advancement of personalized chronotherapeutics through interdisciplinary systems approaches. Thus, the combination of mathematical, statistical, technological, experimental, and clinical expertise is now shaping the development of dedicated devices and diagnostic and delivery algorithms enabling treatment individualization. In particular, multiscale systems chronopharmacology approaches currently combine mathematical modeling based on cellular and whole-body physiology to preclinical and clinical investigations toward the design of patient-tailored chronotherapies. We review recent systems research works aiming to the individualization of disease treatment, with emphasis on both cancer management and circadian timing system-resetting strategies for improving chronic disease control and patient outcomes.

Time-Series Transcriptomics Reveals That AGAMOUS-LIKE22 Affects Primary Metabolism and Developmental Processes in Drought-Stressed Arabidopsis.

In Arabidopsis thaliana, changes in metabolism and gene expression drive increased drought tolerance and initiate diverse drought avoidance and escape responses. To address regulatory processes that link these responses, we set out to identify genes that govern early responses to drought. To do this, a high-resolution time series transcriptomics data set was produced, coupled with detailed physiological and metabolic analyses of plants subjected to a slow transition from well-watered to drought conditions. A total of 1815 drought-responsive differentially expressed genes were identified. The early changes in gene expression coincided with a drop in carbon assimilation, and only in the late stages with an increase in foliar abscisic acid content. To identify gene regulatory networks (GRNs) mediating the transition between the early and late stages of drought, we used Bayesian network modeling of differentially expressed transcription factor (TF) genes. This approach identified AGAMOUS-LIKE22 (AGL22), as key hub gene in a TF GRN. It has previously been shown that AGL22 is involved in the transition from vegetative state to flowering but here we show that AGL22 expression influences steady state photosynthetic rates and lifetime water use. This suggests that AGL22 uniquely regulates a transcriptional network during drought stress, linking changes in primary metabolism and the initiation of stress responses.

Inferring transcriptional logic from multiple dynamic experiments.

MOTIVATION: The availability of more data of dynamic gene expression under multiple experimental conditions provides new information that makes the key goal of identifying not only the transcriptional regulators of a gene but also the underlying logical structure attainable. RESULTS: We propose a novel method for inferring transcriptional regulation using a simple, yet biologically interpretable, model to find the logic by which a set of candidate genes and their associated transcription factors (TFs) regulate the transcriptional process of a gene of interest. Our dynamic model links the mRNA transcription rate of the target gene to the activation states of the TFs assuming that these interactions are consistent across multiple experiments and over time. A trans-dimensional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used to efficiently sample the regulatory logic under different combinations of parents and rank the estimated models by their posterior probabilities. We demonstrate and compare our methodology with other methods using simulation examples and apply it to a study of transcriptional regulation of selected target genes of Arabidopsis Thaliana from microarray time series data obtained under multiple biotic stresses. We show that our method is able to detect complex regulatory interactions that are consistent under multiple experimental conditions. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Programs are written in MATLAB and Statistics Toolbox Release 2016b, The MathWorks, Inc., Natick, Massachusetts, United States and are available on GitHub https://github.com/giorgosminas/TRS and at http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/systemsbiology/research/software. CONTACT: giorgos.minas@warwick.ac.uk or b.f.finkenstadt@warwick.ac.uk. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Long-time analytic approximation of large stochastic oscillators: Simulation, analysis and inference.

In order to analyse large complex stochastic dynamical models such as those studied in systems biology there is currently a great need for both analytical tools and also algorithms for accurate and fast simulation and estimation. We present a new stochastic approximation of biological oscillators that addresses these needs. Our method, called phase-corrected LNA (pcLNA) overcomes the main limitations of the standard Linear Noise Approximation (LNA) to remain uniformly accurate for long times, still maintaining the speed and analytically tractability of the LNA. As part of this, we develop analytical expressions for key probability distributions and associated quantities, such as the Fisher Information Matrix and Kullback-Leibler divergence and we introduce a new approach to system-global sensitivity analysis. We also present algorithms for statistical inference and for long-term simulation of oscillating systems that are shown to be as accurate but much faster than leaping algorithms and algorithms for integration of diffusion equations. Stochastic versions of published models of the circadian clock and NF-κB system are used to illustrate our results.

ReTrOS: a MATLAB toolbox for reconstructing transcriptional activity from gene and protein expression data.

BACKGROUND: Given the development of high-throughput experimental techniques, an increasing number of whole genome transcription profiling time series data sets, with good temporal resolution, are becoming available to researchers. The ReTrOS toolbox (Reconstructing Transcription Open Software) provides MATLAB-based implementations of two related methods, namely ReTrOS-Smooth and ReTrOS-Switch, for reconstructing the temporal transcriptional activity profile of a gene from given mRNA expression time series or protein reporter time series. The methods are based on fitting a differential equation model incorporating the processes of transcription, translation and degradation. RESULTS: The toolbox provides a framework for model fitting along with statistical analyses of the model with a graphical interface and model visualisation. We highlight several applications of the toolbox, including the reconstruction of the temporal cascade of transcriptional activity inferred from mRNA expression data and protein reporter data in the core circadian clock in Arabidopsis thaliana, and how such reconstructed transcription profiles can be used to study the effects of different cell lines and conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The ReTrOS toolbox allows users to analyse gene and/or protein expression time series where, with appropriate formulation of prior information about a minimum of kinetic parameters, in particular rates of degradation, users are able to infer timings of changes in transcriptional activity. Data from any organism and obtained from a range of technologies can be used as input due to the flexible and generic nature of the model and implementation. The output from this software provides a useful analysis of time series data and can be incorporated into further modelling approaches or in hypothesis generation.

Reconstruction of Cell Surface Densities of Ion Pumps, Exchangers, and Channels from mRNA Expression, Conductance Kinetics, Whole-Cell Calcium, and Current-Clamp Voltage Recordings, with an Application to Human Uterine Smooth Muscle Cells.

Uterine smooth muscle cells remain quiescent throughout most of gestation, only generating spontaneous action potentials immediately prior to, and during, labor. This study presents a method that combines transcriptomics with biophysical recordings to characterise the conductance repertoire of these cells, the 'conductance repertoire' being the total complement of ion channels and transporters expressed by an electrically active cell. Transcriptomic analysis provides a set of potential electrogenic entities, of which the conductance repertoire is a subset. Each entity within the conductance repertoire was modeled independently and its gating parameter values were fixed using the available biophysical data. The only remaining free parameters were the surface densities for each entity. We characterise the space of combinations of surface densities (density vectors) consistent with experimentally observed membrane potential and calcium waveforms. This yields insights on the functional redundancy of the system as well as its behavioral versatility. Our approach couples high-throughput transcriptomic data with physiological behaviors in health and disease, and provides a formal method to link genotype to phenotype in excitable systems. We accurately predict current densities and chart functional redundancy. For example, we find that to evoke the observed voltage waveform, the BK channel is functionally redundant whereas hERG is essential. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that activation of calcium-activated chloride conductances by intracellular calcium release is the key factor underlying spontaneous depolarisations.

Phase locking and multiple oscillating attractors for the coupled mammalian clock and cell cycle.

Daily synchronous rhythms of cell division at the tissue or organism level are observed in many species and suggest that the circadian clock and cell cycle oscillators are coupled. For mammals, despite known mechanistic interactions, the effect of such coupling on clock and cell cycle progression, and hence its biological relevance, is not understood. In particular, we do not know how the temporal organization of cell division at the single-cell level produces this daily rhythm at the tissue level. Here we use multispectral imaging of single live cells, computational methods, and mathematical modeling to address this question in proliferating mouse fibroblasts. We show that in unsynchronized cells the cell cycle and circadian clock robustly phase lock each other in a 1:1 fashion so that in an expanding cell population the two oscillators oscillate in a synchronized way with a common frequency. Dexamethasone-induced synchronization reveals additional clock states. As well as the low-period phase-locked state there are distinct coexisting states with a significantly higher period clock. Cells transition to these states after dexamethasone synchronization. The temporal coordination of cell division by phase locking to the clock at a single-cell level has significant implications because disordered circadian function is increasingly being linked to the pathogenesis of many diseases, including cancer.

PeTTSy: a computational tool for perturbation analysis of complex systems biology models.

BACKGROUND: Over the last decade sensitivity analysis techniques have been shown to be very useful to analyse complex and high dimensional Systems Biology models. However, many of the currently available toolboxes have either used parameter sampling, been focused on a restricted set of model observables of interest, studied optimisation of a objective function, or have not dealt with multiple simultaneous model parameter changes where the changes can be permanent or temporary. RESULTS: Here we introduce our new, freely downloadable toolbox, PeTTSy (Perturbation Theory Toolbox for Systems). PeTTSy is a package for MATLAB which implements a wide array of techniques for the perturbation theory and sensitivity analysis of large and complex ordinary differential equation (ODE) based models. PeTTSy is a comprehensive modelling framework that introduces a number of new approaches and that fully addresses analysis of oscillatory systems. It examines sensitivity analysis of the models to perturbations of parameters, where the perturbation timing, strength, length and overall shape can be controlled by the user. This can be done in a system-global setting, namely, the user can determine how many parameters to perturb, by how much and for how long. PeTTSy also offers the user the ability to explore the effect of the parameter perturbations on many different types of outputs: period, phase (timing of peak) and model solutions. PeTTSy can be employed on a wide range of mathematical models including free-running and forced oscillators and signalling systems. To enable experimental optimisation using the Fisher Information Matrix it efficiently allows one to combine multiple variants of a model (i.e. a model with multiple experimental conditions) in order to determine the value of new experiments. It is especially useful in the analysis of large and complex models involving many variables and parameters. CONCLUSIONS: PeTTSy is a comprehensive tool for analysing large and complex models of regulatory and signalling systems. It allows for simulation and analysis of models under a variety of environmental conditions and for experimental optimisation of complex combined experiments. With its unique set of tools it makes a valuable addition to the current library of sensitivity analysis toolboxes. We believe that this software will be of great use to the wider biological, systems biology and modelling communities.

A stochastic transcriptional switch model for single cell imaging data.

Gene expression is made up of inherently stochastic processes within single cells and can be modeled through stochastic reaction networks (SRNs). In particular, SRNs capture the features of intrinsic variability arising from intracellular biochemical processes. We extend current models for gene expression to allow the transcriptional process within an SRN to follow a random step or switch function which may be estimated using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This stochastic switch model provides a generic framework to capture many different dynamic features observed in single cell gene expression. Inference for such SRNs is challenging due to the intractability of the transition densities. We derive a model-specific birth-death approximation and study its use for inference in comparison with the linear noise approximation where both approximations are considered within the unifying framework of state-space models. The methodology is applied to synthetic as well as experimental single cell imaging data measuring expression of the human prolactin gene in pituitary cells.

Measurement of single-cell dynamics.

Populations of cells are almost always heterogeneous in function and fate. To understand the plasticity of cells, it is vital to measure quantitatively and dynamically the molecular processes that underlie cell-fate decisions in single cells. Early events in cell signalling often occur within seconds of the stimulus, whereas intracellular signalling processes and transcriptional changes can take minutes or hours. By contrast, cell-fate decisions, such as whether a cell divides, differentiates or dies, can take many hours or days. Multiparameter experimental and computational methods that integrate quantitative measurement and mathematical simulation of these noisy and complex processes are required to understand the highly dynamic mechanisms that control cell plasticity and fate.

Frequency modulated translocational oscillations of Nrf2, a transcription factor functioning like a wireless sensor.

The discovery that nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) undergoes translocational oscillations from cytoplasm to nucleus in human cells with frequency modulation linked to activation of a stress-stimulated cytoprotective response raises the prospect that the Nrf2 works mechanistically analogous to a wireless sensor. Herein, we consider how this new model of Nrf2 oscillation resolves previous inexplicable experimental findings on Nrf2 regulation and why it is fit-for-purpose. Further investigation is required to assess how generally applicable the oscillatory mechanism is and if characteristics of this regulatory control can be found in vivo. It suggests there are multiple, potentially re-enforcing receptors for Nrf2 activation, indicating that potent Nrf2 activation for improved health and treatment of disease may be achieved through combination of Nrf2 system stimulants.

Inference on periodicity of circadian time series.

Estimation of the period length of time-course data from cyclical biological processes, such as those driven by the circadian pacemaker, is crucial for inferring the properties of the biological clock found in many living organisms. We propose a methodology for period estimation based on spectrum resampling (SR) techniques. Simulation studies show that SR is superior and more robust to non-sinusoidal and noisy cycles than a currently used routine based on Fourier approximations. In addition, a simple fit to the oscillations using linear least squares is available, together with a non-parametric test for detecting changes in period length which allows for period estimates with different variances, as frequently encountered in practice. The proposed methods are motivated by and applied to various data examples from chronobiology.

A temporal switch model for estimating transcriptional activity in gene expression.

MOTIVATION: The analysis and mechanistic modelling of time series gene expression data provided by techniques such as microarrays, NanoString, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and advanced sequencing are invaluable for developing an understanding of the variation in key biological processes. We address this by proposing the estimation of a flexible dynamic model, which decouples temporal synthesis and degradation of mRNA and, hence, allows for transcriptional activity to switch between different states. RESULTS: The model is flexible enough to capture a variety of observed transcriptional dynamics, including oscillatory behaviour, in a way that is compatible with the demands imposed by the quality, time-resolution and quantity of the data. We show that the timing and number of switch events in transcriptional activity can be estimated alongside individual gene mRNA stability with the help of a Bayesian reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. To demonstrate the methodology, we focus on modelling the wild-type behaviour of a selection of 200 circadian genes of the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. The results support the idea that using a mechanistic model to identify transcriptional switch points is likely to strongly contribute to efforts in elucidating and understanding key biological processes, such as transcription and degradation.

A hierarchical model of transcriptional dynamics allows robust estimation of transcription rates in populations of single cells with variable gene copy number.

MOTIVATION: cis-regulatory DNA sequence elements, such as enhancers and silencers, function to control the spatial and temporal expression of their target genes. Although the overall levels of gene expression in large cell populations seem to be precisely controlled, transcription of individual genes in single cells is extremely variable in real time. It is, therefore, important to understand how these cis-regulatory elements function to dynamically control transcription at single-cell resolution. Recently, statistical methods have been proposed to back calculate the rates involved in mRNA transcription using parameter estimation of a mathematical model of transcription and translation. However, a major complication in these approaches is that some of the parameters, particularly those corresponding to the gene copy number and transcription rate, cannot be distinguished; therefore, these methods cannot be used when the copy number is unknown. RESULTS: Here, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate biokinetic parameters from live cell enhancer-promoter reporter measurements performed on a population of single cells. This allows us to investigate transcriptional dynamics when the copy number is variable across the population. We validate our method using synthetic data and then apply it to quantify the function of two known developmental enhancers in real time and in single cells. AVAILABILITY: Supporting information is submitted with the article.