Multimodeling approach to evaluating the efficacy of layering pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza pandemics.

When an influenza pandemic emerges, temporary school closures and antiviral treatment may slow virus spread, reduce the overall disease burden, and provide time for vaccine development, distribution, and administration while keeping a larger portion of the general population infection free. The impact of such measures will depend on the transmissibility and severity of the virus and the timing and extent of their implementation. To provide robust assessments of layered pandemic intervention strategies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded a network of academic groups to build a framework for the development and comparison of multiple pandemic influenza models. Research teams from Columbia University, Imperial College London/Princeton University, Northeastern University, the University of Texas at Austin/Yale University, and the University of Virginia independently modeled three prescribed sets of pandemic influenza scenarios developed collaboratively by the CDC and network members. Results provided by the groups were aggregated into a mean-based ensemble. The ensemble and most component models agreed on the ranking of the most and least effective intervention strategies by impact but not on the magnitude of those impacts. In the scenarios evaluated, vaccination alone, due to the time needed for development, approval, and deployment, would not be expected to substantially reduce the numbers of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths that would occur. Only strategies that included early implementation of school closure were found to substantially mitigate early spread and allow time for vaccines to be developed and administered, especially under a highly transmissible pandemic scenario.

Timing of influenza antiviral therapy and risk of death in adults hospitalized with influenza-associated pneumonia, FluSurv-NET, 2012-2019.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is common in adults hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza, but the association between timeliness of influenza antiviral treatment and severe clinical outcomes in patients with influenza-associated pneumonia is not well characterized. METHODS: We included adults aged ≥18 years hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza and a discharge diagnosis of pneumonia over 7 influenza seasons (2012-2019) sampled from a multi-state population-based surveillance network. We evaluated 3 treatment groups based on timing of influenza antiviral initiation relative to admission date (day 0, day 1, days 2-5). Baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes were compared across groups using unweighted counts and weighted percentages accounting for the complex survey design. Logistic regression models were generated to evaluate the association between delayed treatment and 30-day all-cause mortality. RESULTS: 26,233 adults were sampled in the analysis. Median age was 71 years and most (92.2%) had ≥1 non-immunocompromising condition. Overall, 60.9% started antiviral treatment on day 0, 29.5% on day 1, and 9.7% on days 2-5 (median 2 days). Baseline characteristics were similar across groups. Thirty-day mortality occurred in 7.5%, 8.5%, and 10.2% of patients who started treatment on day 0, day 1, and days 2-5, respectively. Compared to those treated on day 0, adjusted OR for death was 1.14 (95%CI: 1.01-1.27) in those starting treatment on day 1 and 1.40 (95%CI: 1.17-1.66) in those starting on days 2-5. DISCUSSION: Delayed initiation of antiviral treatment in patients hospitalized with influenza-associated pneumonia was associated with higher risk of death, highlighting the importance of timely initiation of antiviral treatment at admission.

Estimating community-wide indirect effects of influenza vaccination: triangulation using mathematical models and bias analysis.

Understanding whether influenza vaccine promotion strategies produce community-wide indirect effects is important for establishing vaccine coverage targets and optimizing vaccine delivery. Empirical epidemiologic studies and mathematical models have been used to estimate indirect effects of vaccines but rarely for the same estimand in the same dataset. Using these approaches together could be a powerful tool for triangulation in infectious disease epidemiology because each approach is subject to distinct sources of bias. We triangulated evidence about indirect effects from a school-located influenza vaccination program using two approaches: a difference-in-difference (DID) analysis, and an age-structured, deterministic, compartmental model. The estimated indirect effect was substantially lower in the mathematical model than in the DID analysis (2.1% (95% Bayesian credible intervals 0.4 - 4.4%) vs. 22.3% (95% CI 7.6% - 37.1%)). To explore reasons for differing estimates, we used sensitivity analyses and probabilistic bias analyses. When we constrained model parameters such that projections matched the DID analysis, results only aligned with the DID analysis with substantially lower pre-existing immunity among school-age children and older adults. Conversely, DID estimates corrected for potential bias only aligned with mathematical model estimates under differential outcome misclassification. We discuss how triangulation using empirical and mathematical modelling approaches could strengthen future studies.

Cluster of Influenza A(H5) Cases Associated with Poultry Exposure at Two Facilities - Colorado, July 2024.

Persons who work in close contact with dairy cattle and poultry that are infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) virus are at increased risk for infection. In July 2024, the Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment responded to two poultry facilities with HPAI A(H5N1) virus detections in poultry. Across the two facilities, 663 workers assisting with poultry depopulation (i.e., euthanasia) received screening for illness; 109 (16.4%) reported symptoms and consented to testing. Among those who received testing, nine (8.3%) received a positive influenza A(H5) virus test result, and 19 (17.4%) received a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. All nine workers who received positive influenza A(H5) test results had conjunctivitis, experienced mild illness, and received oseltamivir. This poultry exposure-associated cluster of human cases of influenza A(H5) is the first reported in the United States. The identification of these cases highlights the ongoing risk to persons who work in close contact with infected animals. Early response to each facility using multidisciplinary, multilingual teams facilitated case-finding, worker screening, and treatment. As the prevalence of HPAI A(H5N1) virus clade 2.3.4.4b genotype B3.13 increases, U.S. public health agencies should prepare to rapidly investigate and respond to illness in agricultural workers, including workers with limited access to health care.

Interim Estimates of 2023-24 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness - United States.

In the United States, annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months. Using data from four vaccine effectiveness (VE) networks during the 2023-24 influenza season, interim influenza VE was estimated among patients aged ≥6 months with acute respiratory illness-associated medical encounters using a test-negative case-control study design. Among children and adolescents aged 6 months-17 years, VE against influenza-associated outpatient visits ranged from 59% to 67% and against influenza-associated hospitalization ranged from 52% to 61%. Among adults aged ≥18 years, VE against influenza-associated outpatient visits ranged from 33% to 49% and against hospitalization from 41% to 44%. VE against influenza A ranged from 46% to 59% for children and adolescents and from 27% to 46% for adults across settings. VE against influenza B ranged from 64% to 89% for pediatric patients in outpatient settings and from 60% to 78% for all adults across settings. These findings demonstrate that the 2023-24 seasonal influenza vaccine is effective at reducing the risk for medically attended influenza virus infection. CDC recommends that all persons aged ≥6 months who have not yet been vaccinated this season get vaccinated while influenza circulates locally.

Association of Culturable-Virus Detection and Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, California and Tennessee, 2020-2022.

From 2 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) household transmission studies (enrolling April 2020 to January 2022) with rapid enrollment and specimen collection for 14 days, 61% (43/70) of primary cases had culturable virus detected ≥6 days post-onset. Risk of secondary infection among household contacts tended to be greater when primary cases had culturable virus detected after onset. Regardless of duration of culturable virus, most secondary infections (70%, 28/40) had serial intervals <6 days, suggesting early transmission. These data examine viral culture as a proxy for infectiousness, reaffirm the need for rapid control measures after infection, and highlight the potential for prolonged infectiousness (≥6 days) in many individuals.

Comparison of Influenza and Coronavirus Disease 2019-Associated Hospitalizations Among Children Younger Than 18 Years Old in the United States: FluSurv-NET (October-April 2017-2021) and COVID-NET (October 2020-September 2021).

BACKGROUND: Influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 are significant causes of respiratory illness in children. METHODS: Influenza- and COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among children <18 years old were analyzed from FluSurv-NET and COVID-NET, 2 population-based surveillance systems with similar catchment areas and methodology. The annual COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate per 100 000 during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic (1 October 2020-30 September 2021) was compared with influenza-associated hospitalization rates during the 2017-2018 through 2019-2020 influenza seasons. In-hospital outcomes, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death, were compared. RESULTS: Among children <18 years, the COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate (48.2) was higher than influenza-associated hospitalization rates: 2017-2018 (33.5), 2018-2019 (33.8), and 2019-2020 (41.7). The COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate was higher among adolescents 12-17 years old (COVID-19: 59.9; influenza range: 12.2-14.1), but similar or lower among children 5-11 (COVID-19: 25.0; influenza range: 24.3-31.7) and 0-4 (COVID-19: 66.8; influenza range: 70.9-91.5) years old. Among children <18 years, a higher proportion with COVID-19 required ICU admission compared with influenza (26.4% vs 21.6%; P < .01). Pediatric deaths were uncommon during both COVID-19- and influenza-associated hospitalizations (0.7% vs 0.5%; P = .28). CONCLUSIONS: In the setting of extensive mitigation measures during the COVID-19 pandemic, the annual COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate during 2020-2021 was higher among adolescents and similar or lower among children <12 years compared with influenza during the 3 seasons before the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 adds substantially to the existing burden of pediatric hospitalizations and severe outcomes caused by influenza and other respiratory viruses.

Evaluating Potential Impacts of a Preferential Vaccine Recommendation for Adults 65 Years of Age and Older on US Influenza Burden.

BACKGROUND: High-dose, adjuvanted, and recombinant influenza vaccines may offer improved effectiveness among older adults compared with standard-dose, unadjuvanted, inactivated vaccines. However, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) only recently recommended preferential use of these "higher-dose or adjuvanted" vaccines. One concern was that individuals might delay or decline vaccination if a preferred vaccine is not readily available. METHODS: We mathematically model how a recommendation for preferential use of higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines in adults ≥65 years might impact influenza burden in the United States during exemplar "high-" and "low-"severity seasons. We assume higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines are more effective than standard vaccines and that such a recommendation would increase uptake of the former but could cause (i) delays in administration of additional higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines relative to standard vaccines and/or (ii) reductions in overall coverage if individuals only offered standard vaccines forego vaccination. RESULTS: In a best-case scenario, assuming no delay or coverage reduction, a new recommendation could decrease hospitalizations and deaths in adults ≥65 years by 0%-4% compared with current uptake. However, intermediate and worst-case scenarios, with assumed delays of 3 or 6 weeks and/or 10% or 20% reductions in coverage, included projections in which hospitalizations and deaths increased by over 7%. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that increased use of higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines could decrease influenza burden in adults ≥65 in the United States provided there is timely and adequate access to these vaccines, and that standard vaccines are administered when they are unavailable.

High Influenza Incidence and Disease Severity Among Children and Adolescents Aged <18 Years - United States, 2022-23 Season.

During the 2022-23 influenza season, early increases in influenza activity, co-circulation of influenza with other respiratory viruses, and high influenza-associated hospitalization rates, particularly among children and adolescents, were observed. This report describes the 2022-23 influenza season among children and adolescents aged <18 years, including the seasonal severity assessment; estimates of U.S. influenza-associated medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths; and characteristics of influenza-associated hospitalizations. The 2022-23 influenza season had high severity among children and adolescents compared with thresholds based on previous seasons' influenza-associated outpatient visits, hospitalization rates, and deaths. Nationally, the incidences of influenza-associated outpatient visits and hospitalization for the 2022-23 season were similar for children aged <5 years and higher for children and adolescents aged 5-17 years compared with previous seasons. Peak influenza-associated outpatient and hospitalization activity occurred in late November and early December. Among children and adolescents hospitalized with influenza during the 2022-23 season in hospitals participating in the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network, a lower proportion were vaccinated (18.3%) compared with previous seasons (35.8%-41.8%). Early influenza circulation, before many children and adolescents had been vaccinated, might have contributed to the high hospitalization rates during the 2022-23 season. Among symptomatic hospitalized patients, receipt of influenza antiviral treatment (64.9%) was lower than during pre-COVID-19 pandemic seasons (80.8%-87.1%). CDC recommends that all persons aged ≥6 months without contraindications should receive the annual influenza vaccine, ideally by the end of October.

Characteristics and Outcomes of Hospitalized Pregnant Women With Influenza, 2010 to 2019 : A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women may be at increased risk for severe influenza-associated outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To describe characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized pregnant women with influenza. DESIGN: Repeated cross-sectional study. SETTING: The population-based U.S. Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network during the 2010-2011 through 2018-2019 influenza seasons. PATIENTS: Pregnant women (aged 15 to 44 years) hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza identified through provider-initiated or facility-based testing practices. MEASUREMENTS: Clinical characteristics, interventions, and in-hospital maternal and fetal outcomes were obtained through medical chart abstraction. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between influenza A subtype and severe maternal influenza-associated outcomes, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or in-hospital death. RESULTS: Of 9652 women aged 15 to 44 years and hospitalized with influenza, 2690 (27.9%) were pregnant. Among the 2690 pregnant women, the median age was 28 years, 62% were in their third trimester, and 42% had at least 1 underlying condition. Overall, 32% were vaccinated against influenza and 88% received antiviral treatment. Five percent required ICU admission, 2% required mechanical ventilation, and 0.3% (n = 8) died. Pregnant women with influenza A H1N1 were more likely to have severe outcomes than those with influenza A H3N2 (adjusted risk ratio, 1.9 [95% CI, 1.3 to 2.8]). Most women (71%) were still pregnant at hospital discharge. Among 754 women who were no longer pregnant at discharge, 96% had a pregnancy resulting in live birth, and 3% experienced fetal loss. LIMITATION: Maternal and fetal outcomes that occurred after hospital discharge were not captured. CONCLUSION: Over 9 influenza seasons, one third of reproductive-aged women hospitalized with influenza were pregnant. Influenza A H1N1 was associated with more severe maternal outcomes. Pregnant women remain a high-priority target group for vaccination. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Household Transmission of Influenza A Viruses in 2021-2022.

Importance: Influenza virus infections declined globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. Loss of natural immunity from lower rates of influenza infection and documented antigenic changes in circulating viruses may have resulted in increased susceptibility to influenza virus infection during the 2021-2022 influenza season. Objective: To compare the risk of influenza virus infection among household contacts of patients with influenza during the 2021-2022 influenza season with risk of influenza virus infection among household contacts during influenza seasons before the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective study of influenza transmission enrolled households in 2 states before the COVID-19 pandemic (2017-2020) and in 4 US states during the 2021-2022 influenza season. Primary cases were individuals with the earliest laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) virus infection in a household. Household contacts were people living with the primary cases who self-collected nasal swabs daily for influenza molecular testing and completed symptom diaries daily for 5 to 10 days after enrollment. Exposures: Household contacts living with a primary case. Main Outcomes and Measures: Relative risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) virus infection in household contacts during the 2021-2022 season compared with prepandemic seasons. Risk estimates were adjusted for age, vaccination status, frequency of interaction with the primary case, and household density. Subgroup analyses by age, vaccination status, and frequency of interaction with the primary case were also conducted. Results: During the prepandemic seasons, 152 primary cases (median age, 13 years; 3.9% Black; 52.0% female) and 353 household contacts (median age, 33 years; 2.8% Black; 54.1% female) were included and during the 2021-2022 influenza season, 84 primary cases (median age, 10 years; 13.1% Black; 52.4% female) and 186 household contacts (median age, 28.5 years; 14.0% Black; 63.4% female) were included in the analysis. During the prepandemic influenza seasons, 20.1% (71/353) of household contacts were infected with influenza A(H3N2) viruses compared with 50.0% (93/186) of household contacts in 2021-2022. The adjusted relative risk of A(H3N2) virus infection in 2021-2022 was 2.31 (95% CI, 1.86-2.86) compared with prepandemic seasons. Conclusions and Relevance: Among cohorts in 5 US states, there was a significantly increased risk of household transmission of influenza A(H3N2) in 2021-2022 compared with prepandemic seasons. Additional research is needed to understand reasons for this association.

Healthcare-Seeking Behavior for Respiratory Illness Among Flu Near You Participants in the United States During the 2015-2016 Through 2018-2019 Influenza Seasons.

BACKGROUND: Flu Near You (FNY) is an online participatory syndromic surveillance system that collects health-related information. In this article, we summarized the healthcare-seeking behavior of FNY participants who reported influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms. METHODS: We applied inverse probability weighting to calculate age-adjusted estimates of the percentage of FNY participants in the United States who sought health care for ILI symptoms during the 2015-2016 through 2018-2019 influenza season and compared seasonal trends across different demographic and regional subgroups, including age group, sex, census region, and place of care using adjusted χ 2 tests. RESULTS: The overall age-adjusted percentage of FNY participants who sought healthcare for ILI symptoms varied by season and ranged from 22.8% to 35.6%. Across all seasons, healthcare seeking was highest for the <18 and 65+ years age groups, women had a greater percentage compared with men, and the South census region had the largest percentage while the West census region had the smallest percentage. CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of FNY participants who sought healthcare for ILI symptoms varied by season, geographical region, age group, and sex. FNY compliments existing surveillance systems and informs estimates of influenza-associated illness by adding important real-time insights into healthcare-seeking behavior.

SARS-CoV-2 Virus Dynamics in Recently Infected People-Data From a Household Transmission Study.

We used daily real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) results from 67 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a household transmission study, conducted April 2020-May 2021, to examine the trajectory of cycle threshold (Ct) values, an inverse correlate of viral RNA concentration. Ct values varied across RT-PCR platforms and by participant age. Specimens collected from children and adolescents had higher Ct values and adults aged ≥50 years showed lower Ct values than adults aged 18-49 years. Ct values were lower on days when participants reported experiencing symptoms, with the lowest Ct value occurring 2-6 days after symptom onset.

Five-Year Community Surveillance Study for Acute Respiratory Infections Using Text Messaging: Findings From the MoSAIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory infections (ARI) are the most common infectious diseases globally. Community surveillance may provide a more comprehensive picture of disease burden than medically attended illness alone. METHODS: In this longitudinal study conducted from 2012 to 2017 in the Washington Heights/Inwood area of New York City, we enrolled 405 households with 1915 individuals. Households were sent research text messages twice weekly inquiring about ARI symptoms. Research staff confirmed symptoms by follow-up call. If ≥2 criteria for ARI were met (fever/feverish, cough, congestion, pharyngitis, myalgias), staff obtained a mid-turbinate nasal swab in participants' homes. Swabs were tested using the FilmArray reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) respiratory panel. RESULTS: Among participants, 43.9% were children, and 12.8% had a chronic respiratory condition. During the 5 years, 114 724 text messages were sent; the average response rate was 78.8% ± 6.8%. Swabs were collected for 91.4% (2756/3016) of confirmed ARI; 58.7% had a pathogen detected. Rhino/enteroviruses (51.9%), human coronaviruses (13.9%), and influenza (13.2%) were most commonly detected. The overall incidence was 0.62 ARI/person-year, highest (1.73) in <2 year-olds and lowest (0.46) in 18-49 year-olds. Approximately one-fourth of those with ARI sought healthcare; percents differed by pathogen, demographic factors, and presence of a chronic respiratory condition. CONCLUSIONS: Text messaging is a novel method for community-based surveillance that could be used both seasonally as well as during outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics. The importance of community surveillance to accurately estimate disease burden is underscored by the findings of low rates of care-seeking that varied by demographic factors and pathogens.

Use of At-Home COVID-19 Tests - United States, August 23, 2021-March 12, 2022.

COVID-19 testing provides information regarding exposure and transmission risks, guides preventative measures (e.g., if and when to start and end isolation and quarantine), identifies opportunities for appropriate treatments, and helps assess disease prevalence (1). At-home rapid COVID-19 antigen tests (at-home tests) are a convenient and accessible alternative to laboratory-based diagnostic nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 (2-4). With the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) and B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variants in 2021, demand for at-home tests increased† (5). At-home tests are commonly used for school- or employer-mandated testing and for confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a COVID-19-like illness or following exposure (6). Mandated COVID-19 reporting requirements omit at-home tests, and there are no standard processes for test takers or manufacturers to share results with appropriate health officials (2). Therefore, with increased COVID-19 at-home test use, laboratory-based reporting systems might increasingly underreport the actual incidence of infection. Data from a cross-sectional, nonprobability-based online survey (August 23, 2021-March 12, 2022) of U.S. adults aged ≥18 years were used to estimate self-reported at-home test use over time, and by demographic characteristics, geography, symptoms/syndromes, and reasons for testing. From the Delta-predominant period (August 23-December 11, 2021) to the Omicron-predominant period (December 19, 2021-March 12, 2022)§ (7), at-home test use among respondents with self-reported COVID-19-like illness¶ more than tripled from 5.7% to 20.1%. The two most commonly reported reasons for testing among persons who used an at-home test were COVID-19 exposure (39.4%) and COVID-19-like symptoms (28.9%). At-home test use differed by race (e.g., self-identified as White [5.9%] versus self-identified as Black [2.8%]), age (adults aged 30-39 years [6.4%] versus adults aged ≥75 years [3.6%]), household income (>$150,000 [9.5%] versus $50,000-$74,999 [4.7%]), education (postgraduate degree [8.4%] versus high school or less [3.5%]), and geography (New England division [9.6%] versus West South Central division [3.7%]). COVID-19 testing, including at-home tests, along with prevention measures, such as quarantine and isolation when warranted, wearing a well-fitted mask when recommended after a positive test or known exposure, and staying up to date with vaccination,** can help reduce the spread of COVID-19. Further, providing reliable and low-cost or free at-home test kits to underserved populations with otherwise limited access to COVID-19 testing could assist with continued prevention efforts.

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza Coinfection and Clinical Characteristics Among Children and Adolescents Aged <18 Years Who Were Hospitalized or Died with Influenza - United States, 2021-22 Influenza Season.

The 2022-23 influenza season shows an early rise in pediatric influenza-associated hospitalizations (1). SARS-CoV-2 viruses also continue to circulate (2). The current influenza season is the first with substantial co-circulation of influenza viruses and SARS-CoV-2 (3). Although both seasonal influenza viruses and SARS-CoV-2 can contribute to substantial pediatric morbidity (3-5), whether coinfection increases disease severity compared with that associated with infection with one virus alone is unknown. This report describes characteristics and prevalence of laboratory-confirmed influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 coinfections among patients aged <18 years who had been hospitalized or died with influenza as reported to three CDC surveillance platforms during the 2021-22 influenza season. Data from two Respiratory Virus Hospitalizations Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) platforms (October 1, 2021-April 30, 2022),§ and notifiable pediatric deaths associated¶ with influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 coinfection (October 3, 2021-October 1, 2022)** were analyzed. SARS-CoV-2 coinfections occurred in 6% (32 of 575) of pediatric influenza-associated hospitalizations and in 16% (seven of 44) of pediatric influenza-associated deaths. Compared with patients without coinfection, a higher proportion of those hospitalized with coinfection received invasive mechanical ventilation (4% versus 13%; p = 0.03) and bilevel positive airway pressure or continuous positive airway pressure (BiPAP/CPAP) (6% versus 16%; p = 0.05). Among seven coinfected patients who died, none had completed influenza vaccination, and only one received influenza antivirals.†† To help prevent severe outcomes, clinicians should follow recommended respiratory virus testing algorithms to guide treatment decisions and consider early antiviral treatment initiation for pediatric patients with suspected or confirmed influenza, including those with SARS-CoV-2 coinfection who are hospitalized or at increased risk for severe illness. The public and parents should adopt prevention strategies including considering wearing well-fitted, high-quality masks when respiratory virus circulation is high and staying up-to-date with recommended influenza and COVID-19 vaccinations for persons aged ≥6 months.

Estimated Incidence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Illness and Hospitalization-United States, February-September 2020.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is nationally notifiable. However, reported case counts are recognized to be less than the true number of cases because detection and reporting are incomplete and can vary by disease severity, geography, and over time. METHODS: To estimate the cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations, we adapted a simple probabilistic multiplier model. Laboratory-confirmed case counts that were reported nationally were adjusted for sources of underdetection based on testing practices in inpatient and outpatient settings and assay sensitivity. RESULTS: We estimated that through the end of September, 1 of every 2.5 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 2.0-3.1) hospitalized infections and 1 of every 7.1 (95% UI: 5.8-9.0) nonhospitalized illnesses may have been nationally reported. Applying these multipliers to reported SARS-CoV-2 cases along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews, we estimate that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the US population from 27 February-30 September 2020. CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary estimates help demonstrate the societal and healthcare burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic and can help inform resource allocation and mitigation planning.

Changes in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Seroprevalence Over Time in 10 Sites in the United States, March-August, 2020.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody prevalence can complement case reporting to inform more accurate estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection burden, but few studies have undertaken repeated sampling over time on a broad geographic scale. METHODS: We performed serologic testing on a convenience sample of residual serum obtained from persons of all ages, at 10 sites in the United States from 23 March through 14 August 2020, from routine clinical testing at commercial laboratories. We standardized our seroprevalence rates by age and sex, using census population projections and adjusted for laboratory assay performance. Confidence intervals were generated with a 2-stage bootstrap. We used bayesian modeling to test whether seroprevalence changes over time were statistically significant. RESULTS: Seroprevalence remained below 10% at all sites except New York and Florida, where it reached 23.2% and 13.3%, respectively. Statistically significant increases in seroprevalence followed peaks in reported cases in New York, South Florida, Utah, Missouri, and Louisiana. In the absence of such peaks, some significant decreases were observed over time in New York, Missouri, Utah, and Western Washington. The estimated cumulative number of infections with detectable antibody response continued to exceed reported cases in all sites. CONCLUSIONS: Estimated seroprevalence was low in most sites, indicating that most people in the United States had not been infected with SARS-CoV-2 as of July 2020. The majority of infections are likely not reported. Decreases in seroprevalence may be related to changes in healthcare-seeking behavior, or evidence of waning of detectable anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels at the population level. Thus, seroprevalence estimates may underestimate the cumulative incidence of infection.

Serologic Testing of US Blood Donations to Identify Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-Reactive Antibodies: December 2019-January 2020.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, with subsequent worldwide spread. The first US cases were identified in January 2020. METHODS: To determine if SARS-CoV-2-reactive antibodies were present in sera prior to the first identified case in the United States on 19 January 2020, residual archived samples from 7389 routine blood donations collected by the American Red Cross from 13 December 2019 to 17 January 2020 from donors resident in 9 states (California, Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, and Wisconsin) were tested at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Specimens reactive by pan-immunoglobulin (pan-Ig) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) against the full spike protein were tested by IgG and IgM ELISAs, microneutralization test, Ortho total Ig S1 ELISA, and receptor-binding domain/ACE2 blocking activity assay. RESULTS: Of the 7389 samples, 106 were reactive by pan-Ig. Of these 106 specimens, 90 were available for further testing. Eighty-four of 90 had neutralizing activity, 1 had S1 binding activity, and 1 had receptor-binding domain/ACE2 blocking activity >50%, suggesting the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2-reactive antibodies. Donations with reactivity occurred in all 9 states. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may have been introduced into the United States prior to 19 January 2020.

Implications of Shortened Quarantine Among Household Contacts of Index Patients with Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Infection - Tennessee and Wisconsin, April-September 2020.

To prevent further transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), CDC currently recommends that persons who have been in close contact with someone with SARS-CoV-2 infection should quarantine (stay away from other persons) for 14 days after the last known contact.* However, quarantine might be difficult to maintain for a prolonged period. A shorter quarantine might improve compliance, and CDC recommends two options to reduce the duration of quarantine for close contacts without symptoms, based on local circumstances and availability of testing: 1) quarantine can end on day 10 without a test or 2) quarantine can end on day 7 after receiving a negative test result.† However, shorter quarantine might permit ongoing disease transmission from persons who develop symptoms or become infectious near the end of the recommended 14-day period. Interim data from an ongoing study of household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 were analyzed to understand the proportion of household contacts that had detectable virus after a shortened quarantine period. Persons who were household contacts of index patients completed a daily symptom diary and self-collected respiratory specimens for 14 days. Specimens were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Among 185 household contacts enrolled, 109 (59%) had detectable SARS-CoV-2 at any time; 76% (83/109) of test results were positive within 7 days, and 86% (94 of 109) were positive within 10 days after the index patient's illness onset date. Among household contacts who received negative SARS-CoV-2 test results and were asymptomatic through day 7, there was an 81% chance (95% confidence interval [CI] = 67%-90%) of remaining asymptomatic and receiving negative RT-PCR test results through day 14; this increased to 93% (95% CI = 78%-98%) for household members who were asymptomatic with negative RT-PCR test results through day 10. Although SARS-CoV-2 quarantine periods shorter than 14 days might be easier to adhere to, there is a potential for onward transmission from household contacts released before day 14.