Forecasting and Uncertainty Quantification Using a Hybrid of Mechanistic and Non-mechanistic Models for an Age-Structured Population Model.

In this paper, we present a new method for the prediction and uncertainty quantification of data-driven multivariate systems. Traditionally, either mechanistic or non-mechanistic modeling methodologies have been used for prediction; however, it is uncommon for the two to be incorporated together. We compare the forecast accuracy of mechanistic modeling, using Bayesian inference, a non-mechanistic modeling approach based on state space reconstruction, and a novel hybrid methodology composed of the two for an age-structured population data set. The data come from cannibalistic flour beetles, in which it is observed that the adults preying on the eggs and pupae result in non-equilibrium population dynamics. Uncertainty quantification methods for the hybrid models are outlined and illustrated for these data. We perform an analysis of the results from Bayesian inference for the mechanistic model and hybrid models to suggest reasons why hybrid modeling methodology may enable more accurate forecasts of multivariate systems than traditional approaches.

The first case of CDK5RAP2-related primary microcephaly in a non-consanguineous patient identified by next generation sequencing.

Primary autosomal recessive microcephaly (MCPH) is a genetically heterogeneous condition characterized by congenital microcephaly and intellectual disability. To date, 10 MCPH loci have been identified and due to the genetic heterogeneity of this condition, molecular testing for MCPH can be complicated. Our methods involved employing a next generation sequencing panel of MCPH-related genes allowing for the evaluation of multiple disease loci simultaneously. Next generation sequencing analysis of a 6 year old female with primary microcephaly identified novel compound heterozygous mutations (c.524_528del and c.4005-1G>A) in the CDK5RAP2 gene. A review of the published literature to date reveals that only three mutations have been previously reported in the CDK5RAP2 gene in the homozygous state in three Northern Pakistani and one Somali consanguineous MCPH families. Our patient represents the first non-consanguineous Caucasian individual to have been identified with CDK5RAP2-related MCPH. As only a handful of patients have been reported in the literature with CDK5RAP2-related MCPH, we anticipate the identification of individuals with CDK5RAP2 mutations from all ethnic backgrounds will continue. Our patient contributes to the ethnic and genotypic spectrum of CDK5RAP2-related MCPH and supports the occurrence of this genetic condition beyond that of consanguineous families of certain ethnic populations. Our results also highlight the utility of multi-gene sequencing panels to elucidate the etiology of genetically heterogeneous conditions.