Simplified criteria for selecting patients for vertebral fracture assessment.

The 2013 Position Development Conference of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) has adopted simplified indications for vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) based on an analysis of the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). This showed that a simpler regression model, which included only age, bone mineral density (BMD), and height loss, was able to differentiate women with vertebral fractures from those without vertebral fractures almost as well as more complex models. We aimed to verify these findings in 1228 women referred for BMD testing and determine if the 2013 ISCD indications for VFA would perform as well the 2007 indications. The simple and complex SOF-based models were similar in terms of sensitivity (88.4% vs 89.4%), specificity (44.4% vs 45.5%), positive (25.9% vs 26.5%) and negative (94.5% vs 95.1%) predictive values, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) (0.664 vs 0.674). The 2013 and 2007 ISCD VFA indications did not differ significantly in terms of sensitivity (88.2% vs 91.3%), specificity (41.3% vs 37.5%), positive (25.3% vs 22.9%) and negative (93.9% vs 95.5%) predictive values, and AUROC (0.648 vs 0.644). Our study provides support for the use of the simplified 2013 ISCD VFA indications as a practical approach to VFA testing.

Prediction models of prevalent radiographic vertebral fractures among older men.

No studies have compared how well different prediction models discriminate older men who have a radiographic prevalent vertebral fracture (PVFx) from those who do not. We used area under receiver operating characteristic curves and a net reclassification index to compare how well regression-derived prediction models and nonregression prediction tools identify PVFx among men age ≥65 yr with femoral neck T-score of -1.0 or less enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study. The area under receiver operating characteristic for a model with age, bone mineral density, and historical height loss (HHL) was 0.682 compared with 0.692 for a complex model with age, bone mineral density, HHL, prior non-spine fracture, body mass index, back pain, grip strength, smoking, and glucocorticoid use (p values for difference in 5 bootstrapped samples 0.14-0.92). This complex model, using a cutpoint prevalence of 5%, correctly reclassified only a net 5.7% (p = 0.13) of men as having or not having a PVFx compared with a simple criteria list (age ≥ 80 yr, HHL >4 cm, or glucocorticoid use). In conclusion, simple criteria identify older men with PVFx and regression-based models. Future research to identify additional risk factors that more accurately identify older men with PVFx is needed.

Prediction models of prevalent radiographic vertebral fractures among older women.

It is unknown how well prediction models incorporating multiple risk factors identify women with radiographic prevalent vertebral fracture (PVFx) compared with simpler models and what their value might be in clinical practice to select older women for lateral spine imaging. We compared 4 regression models for predicting PVFx in women aged 68 y and older enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures with a femoral neck T-score ≤ -1.0, using area under receiving operator characteristic curves (AUROC) and a net reclassification index. The AUROC for a model with age, femoral neck bone mineral density, historical height loss (HHL), prior nonspine fracture, body mass index, back pain, and grip strength was only minimally better than that of a more parsimonious model with age, femoral neck bone mineral density, and historical height loss (AUROC 0.689 vs 0.679, p values for difference in 5 bootstrapped samples <0.001-0.35). The prevalence of PVFx among this older population of Caucasian women remained more than 20% even when women with low probability of PVFx, as estimated by the prediction models, were included in the screened population. These results suggest that lateral spine imaging is appropriate to consider for all Caucasian women aged 70 y and older with low bone mass to identify those with PVFx.