RESUMO
BACKGROUND: After a single-center trial and observational studies suggesting that early, goal-directed therapy (EGDT) reduced mortality from septic shock, three multicenter trials (ProCESS, ARISE, and ProMISe) showed no benefit. This meta-analysis of individual patient data from the three recent trials was designed prospectively to improve statistical power and explore heterogeneity of treatment effect of EGDT. METHODS: We harmonized entry criteria, intervention protocols, outcomes, resource-use measures, and data collection across the trials and specified all analyses before unblinding. After completion of the trials, we pooled data, excluding the protocol-based standard-therapy group from the ProCESS trial, and resolved residual differences. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included 1-year survival, organ support, and hospitalization costs. We tested for treatment-by-subgroup interactions for 16 patient characteristics and 6 care-delivery characteristics. RESULTS: We studied 3723 patients at 138 hospitals in seven countries. Mortality at 90 days was similar for EGDT (462 of 1852 patients [24.9%]) and usual care (475 of 1871 patients [25.4%]); the adjusted odds ratio was 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.14; P=0.68). EGDT was associated with greater mean (±SD) use of intensive care (5.3±7.1 vs. 4.9±7.0 days, P=0.04) and cardiovascular support (1.9±3.7 vs. 1.6±2.9 days, P=0.01) than was usual care; other outcomes did not differ significantly, although average costs were higher with EGDT. Subgroup analyses showed no benefit from EGDT for patients with worse shock (higher serum lactate level, combined hypotension and hyperlactatemia, or higher predicted risk of death) or for hospitals with a lower propensity to use vasopressors or fluids during usual resuscitation. CONCLUSIONS: In this meta-analysis of individual patient data, EGDT did not result in better outcomes than usual care and was associated with higher hospitalization costs across a broad range of patient and hospital characteristics. (Funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences and others; PRISM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02030158 .).
Assuntos
Transfusão de Eritrócitos , Hidratação , Ressuscitação/métodos , Choque Séptico/terapia , Vasoconstritores/uso terapêutico , Idoso , Cardiotônicos/uso terapêutico , Terapia Combinada , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Hospitalização/economia , Humanos , Infusões Intravenosas , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Ressuscitação/economia , Choque Séptico/mortalidade , Análise de Sobrevida , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
Importance: Vasopressors are commonly administered to intensive care unit (ICU) patients to raise blood pressure. Balancing risks and benefits of vasopressors is a challenge, particularly in older patients. Objective: To determine whether reducing exposure to vasopressors through permissive hypotension (mean arterial pressure [MAP] target, 60-65 mm Hg) reduces mortality at 90 days in ICU patients aged 65 years or older with vasodilatory hypotension. Design, Setting, and Participants: A multicenter, pragmatic, randomized clinical trial was conducted in 65 ICUs in the United Kingdom and included 2600 randomized patients aged 65 years or older with vasodilatory hypotension (assessed by treating clinician). The study was conducted from July 2017 to March 2019, and follow-up was completed in August 2019. Interventions: Patients were randomized 1:1 to vasopressors guided either by MAP target (60-65 mm Hg, permissive hypotension) (n = 1291) or according to usual care (at the discretion of treating clinicians) (n = 1307). Main Outcome and Measures: The primary clinical outcome was all-cause mortality at 90 days. Results: Of 2600 randomized patients, after removal of those who declined or had withdrawn consent, 2463 (95%) were included in the analysis of the primary outcome (mean [SD] age 75 years [7 years]; 1387 [57%] men). Patients randomized to the permissive hypotension group had lower exposure to vasopressors compared with those in the usual care group (median duration 33 hours vs 38 hours; difference in medians, -5.0; 95% CI, -7.8 to -2.2 hours; total dose in norepinephrine equivalents median, 17.7 mg vs 26.4 mg; difference in medians, -8.7 mg; 95% CI, -12.8 to -4.6 mg). At 90 days, 500 of 1221 (41.0%) in the permissive hypotension compared with 544 of 1242 (43.8%) in the usual care group had died (absolute risk difference, -2.85%; 95% CI, -6.75 to 1.05; P = .15) (unadjusted relative risk, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.85-1.03). When adjusted for prespecified baseline variables, the odds ratio for 90-day mortality was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.98). Serious adverse events were reported for 79 patients (6.2%) in the permissive care group and 75 patients (5.8%) in the usual care group. The most common serious adverse events were acute renal failure (41 [3.2%] vs 33 [2.5%]) and supraventricular cardiac arrhythmia (12 [0.9%] vs 13 [1.0%]). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients 65 years or older receiving vasopressors for vasodilatory hypotension, permissive hypotension compared with usual care did not result in a statistically significant reduction in mortality at 90 days. However, the confidence interval around the point estimate for the primary outcome should be considered when interpreting the clinical importance of the study. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN10580502.
Assuntos
Hipotensão/tratamento farmacológico , Vasoconstritores/administração & dosagem , Injúria Renal Aguda/etiologia , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Complexos Atriais Prematuros/etiologia , Transtornos Cognitivos/etiologia , Intervalos de Confiança , Feminino , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Humanos , Hipotensão/complicações , Hipotensão/mortalidade , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Masculino , Vasoconstritores/efeitos adversosRESUMO
Importance: A meta-analysis of outcomes during the 6 months after intensive care unit (ICU) discharge indicate a prevalence for clinically important posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms of 25%. Objective: To determine whether a nurse-led preventive, complex psychological intervention, initiated in the ICU, reduces patient-reported PTSD symptom severity at 6 months. Design, Setting, and Participants: A multicenter, parallel-group, cluster-randomized clinical trial with integrated economic and process evaluations conducted in 24 ICUs in the United Kingdom. Participants were critically ill patients who regained mental capacity following receipt of level 3 (intensive) care. A total of 2961 eligible patients were identified from September 2015 to January 2017. A total of 2048 were approached for participation in the ICU, of which 1458 provided informed consent. Follow-up was completed December 2017. Interventions: Twenty four ICUs were randomized 1:1 to the intervention or control group. Intervention ICUs (n = 12; 669 participants) delivered usual care during a baseline period followed by an intervention period. The preventive, complex psychological intervention comprised promotion of a therapeutic ICU environment plus 3 stress support sessions and a relaxation and recovery program delivered by trained ICU nurses to high-risk (acutely stressed) patients. Control ICUs (n = 12; 789 participants) delivered usual care in both baseline and intervention periods. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary clinical outcome was PTSD symptom severity among survivors at 6 months measured using the PTSD Symptom Scale-Self-Report questionnaire (score range, 0-51, with higher scores indicating greater symptom severity; the minimal clinically important difference was considered to be 4.2 points). Results: Among 1458 enrolled patients (mean [SD] age, 58 [16] years; 599 women [41%]), 1353 (93%) completed the study and were included in the final analysis. At 6 months, the mean PTSD Symptom Scale-Self-Report questionnaire score in intervention ICUs was 11.8 (baseline period) compared with 11.5 (intervention period) (difference, -0.40 [95% CI, -2.46 to 1.67]) and in control ICUs, 10.1 (baseline period) compared with 10.2 (intervention period) (difference, 0.06 [95% CI, -1.74 to 1.85]) between periods. There was no significant difference in PTSD symptom severity at 6 months (treatment effect estimate [difference in differences] of -0.03 [95% CI, -2.58 to 2.52]; P = .98). Conclusions and Relevance: Among critically ill patients in the ICU, a nurse-led preventive, complex psychological intervention did not significantly reduce patient-reported PTSD symptom severity at 6 months. These findings do not support the use of this psychological intervention. Trial Registration: ISRCTN53448131.
Assuntos
Estado Terminal/psicologia , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Psicoterapia/métodos , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/prevenção & controle , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Papel do Profissional de Enfermagem , Autorrelato , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/enfermagem , Inquéritos e Questionários , Falha de TratamentoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Early, goal-directed therapy (EGDT) is recommended in international guidelines for the resuscitation of patients presenting with early septic shock. However, adoption has been limited, and uncertainty about its effectiveness remains. METHODS: We conducted a pragmatic randomized trial with an integrated cost-effectiveness analysis in 56 hospitals in England. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either EGDT (a 6-hour resuscitation protocol) or usual care. The primary clinical outcome was all-cause mortality at 90 days. RESULTS: We enrolled 1260 patients, with 630 assigned to EGDT and 630 to usual care. By 90 days, 184 of 623 patients (29.5%) in the EGDT group and 181 of 620 patients (29.2%) in the usual-care group had died (relative risk in the EGDT group, 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85 to 1.20; P=0.90), for an absolute risk reduction in the EGDT group of -0.3 percentage points (95% CI, -5.4 to 4.7). Increased treatment intensity in the EGDT group was indicated by increased use of intravenous fluids, vasoactive drugs, and red-cell transfusions and reflected by significantly worse organ-failure scores, more days receiving advanced cardiovascular support, and longer stays in the intensive care unit. There were no significant differences in any other secondary outcomes, including health-related quality of life, or in rates of serious adverse events. On average, EGDT increased costs, and the probability that it was cost-effective was below 20%. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with septic shock who were identified early and received intravenous antibiotics and adequate fluid resuscitation, hemodynamic management according to a strict EGDT protocol did not lead to an improvement in outcome. (Funded by the United Kingdom National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme; ProMISe Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN36307479.).
Assuntos
Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Transfusão de Sangue , Hidratação , Ressuscitação/métodos , Choque Séptico/terapia , Vasoconstritores/uso terapêutico , Adulto , Idoso , Protocolos Clínicos , Terapia Combinada , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Humanos , Infusões Intravenosas , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Qualidade de Vida , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Ressuscitação/economia , Choque Séptico/mortalidadeRESUMO
Many cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) use data from observational studies. Statistical methods can only address selection bias if they make plausible assumptions. No quality assessment tool is available for appraising CEAs that use observational studies. We developed a new checklist to assess statistical methods for addressing selection bias in CEAs that use observational data. The checklist criteria were informed by a conceptual review and applied in a systematic review of economic evaluations. Criteria included whether the study assessed the 'no unobserved confounding' assumption, overlap of baseline covariates between the treatment groups and the specification of the regression models. The checklist also considered structural uncertainty from the choice of statistical approach. We found 81 studies that met the inclusion criteria: studies tended to use regression (51%), matching on individual covariates (25%) or matching on the propensity score (22%). Most studies (77%) did not assess the 'no observed confounding' assumption, and few studies (16%) fully considered structural uncertainty from the choice of statistical approach. We conclude that published CEAs do not assess the main assumptions behind statistical methods for addressing selection bias. This checklist can raise awareness about the assumptions behind statistical methods for addressing selection bias and can complement existing method guidelines for CEAs.
Assuntos
Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Economia Médica/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise Custo-Benefício , Humanos , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de VidaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: In the UK, 10% of admissions to intensive care units receive continuous renal replacement therapy with regional citrate anticoagulation replacing systemic heparin anticoagulation over the last decade. Regional citrate anticoagulation is now used in > 50% of intensive care units, despite little evidence of safety or effectiveness. AIM: The aim of the Renal Replacement Anticoagulant Management study was to evaluate the clinical and health economic impacts of intensive care units moving from systemic heparin anticoagulation to regional citrate anticoagulation for continuous renal replacement therapy. DESIGN: This was an observational comparative effectiveness study. SETTING: The setting was NHS adult general intensive care units in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were adults receiving continuous renal replacement therapy in an intensive care unit participating in the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme national clinical audit between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2017. INTERVENTIONS: Exposure - continuous renal replacement therapy in an intensive care unit after completion of transition to regional citrate anticoagulation. Comparator - continuous renal replacement therapy in an intensive care unit before starting transition to regional citrate anticoagulation or had not transitioned. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary effectiveness - all-cause mortality at 90 days. Primary economic - incremental net monetary benefit at 1 year. Secondary outcomes - mortality at hospital discharge, 30 days and 1 year; days of renal, cardiovascular and advanced respiratory support in intensive care unit; length of stay in intensive care unit and hospital; bleeding and thromboembolic events; prevalence of end-stage renal disease at 1 year; and estimated lifetime incremental net monetary benefit. DATA SOURCES: Individual patient data from the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme were linked with the UK Renal Registry, Hospital Episode Statistics (for England), Patient Episodes Data for Wales and Civil Registrations (Deaths) data sets, and combined with identified periods of systemic heparin anticoagulation and regional citrate anticoagulation (survey of intensive care units). Staff time and consumables were obtained from micro-costing. Continuous renal replacement therapy system failures were estimated from the Post-Intensive Care Risk-adjusted Alerting and Monitoring data set. EuroQol-3 Dimensions, three-level version, health-related quality of life was obtained from the Intensive Care Outcomes Network study. RESULTS: Out of the 188 (94.9%) units that responded to the survey, 182 (96.8%) use continuous renal replacement therapy. After linkage, data were available from 69,001 patients across 181 intensive care units (60,416 during periods of systemic heparin anticoagulation use and 8585 during regional citrate anticoagulation use). The change to regional citrate anticoagulation was not associated with a step change in 90-day mortality (odds ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.08). Secondary outcomes showed step increases in days of renal support (difference in means 0.53 days, 95% confidence interval 0.28 to 0.79 days), advanced cardiovascular support (difference in means 0.23 days, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.38 days) and advanced respiratory support (difference in means, 0.53 days, 95% CI 0.03 to 1.03 days) with a trend toward fewer bleeding episodes (odds ratio 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 1.06) with transition to regional citrate anticoagulation. The micro-costing study indicated that regional citrate anticoagulation was more expensive and was associated with an estimated incremental net monetary loss (step change) of -£2376 (95% confidence interval -£3841 to -£911). The estimated likelihood of cost-effectiveness at 1 year was less than 0.1%. LIMITATIONS: Lack of patient-level treatment data means that the results represent average effects of changing to regional citrate anticoagulation in intensive care units. Administrative data are subject to variation in data quality over time, which may contribute to observed trends. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of regional citrate anticoagulation has not improved outcomes for patients and is likely to have substantially increased costs. This study demonstrates the feasibility of evaluating effects of changes in practice using routinely collected data. FUTURE WORK: (1) Prioritise other changes in clinical practice for evaluation and (2) methodological research to understand potential implications of trends in data quality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03545750. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 13. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
Acute kidney injury, which prevents kidneys from working properly, is common in critically ill patients being treated in an intensive care unit. Patients with acute kidney injury are treated with a machine that takes over kidney functions, a process called continuous renal replacement therapy. Traditionally, as part of continuous renal replacement therapy, heparin (an anticoagulant that stops the blood from clotting) is added to the blood as it enters the continuous renal replacement therapy machine. Recently, citrate anticoagulation (an alternative to heparin) has been increasingly used in intensive care units in the UK. However, the increased use of citrate is happening without evidence that this is better for patients and cost-effective for the NHS. We aimed to find out whether or not changing to citrate anticoagulation for continuous renal replacement therapy is more beneficial than heparin anticoagulation for patients with acute kidney injury treated in an intensive care unit. We also looked at whether or not changing to citrate is cost-effective for the NHS. We used routinely collected data from the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme national clinical audit to identify 69,001 patients who received continuous renal replacement therapy in an intensive care unit in England or Wales between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2017. To get a more comprehensive view of the long-term effects of changing to citrate, we 'linked' data from the 69,001 patients together with other routinely collected data sets to get information on their hospital admissions, longer-term kidney problems and survival after leaving the intensive care unit. We combined this information with a survey of anticoagulant use in intensive care units in England and Wales to compare patients who received continuous renal replacement therapy with heparin and citrate. We found that the change to citrate was not associated with a significant change in the death rate at 90 days, but that it was more expensive for hospitals. Our findings suggest that the change to citrate-based anticoagulation may have been premature and should cause clinicians in intensive care units that are still using systemic heparin anticoagulation to pause before making this change.
Assuntos
Terapia de Substituição Renal Contínua , Heparina , Adulto , Anticoagulantes/efeitos adversos , Ácido Cítrico , Análise Custo-Benefício , Cuidados Críticos , Heparina/efeitos adversos , Humanos , Qualidade de VidaRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Previous cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) reported that Drotrecogin alfa (DrotAA) is cost-effective based on a Phase III clinical trial (PROWESS). There is little evidence on whether DrotAA is cost-effective in routine clinical practice. We assessed whether DrotAA is cost-effective in routine practice for adult patients with severe sepsis and multiple organ systems failing. METHODS: This CEA used data from a prospective cohort study that compared DrotAA versus no DrotAA (control) for severe sepsis patients with multiple organ systems failing admitted to critical care units in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The cohort study used case-mix and mortality data from a national audit, linked with a separate audit of DrotAA infusions. Re-admissions to critical care and corresponding mortality were recorded for four years. Patients receiving DrotAA (n = 1,076) were matched to controls (n = 1,650) with a propensity score (Pscore), and Genetic Matching (GenMatch). The CEA projected long-term survival to report lifetime incremental costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) overall, and for subgroups with two or three to five organ systems failing at baseline. RESULTS: The incremental costs per QALY for DrotAA were £30,000 overall, and £16,000 for the subgroups with three to five organ systems failing. For patients with two organ systems failing, DrotAA resulted in an average loss of one QALY at an incremental cost of £15,000. When the subgroup with two organ systems was restricted to patients receiving DrotAA within 24 hours, DrotAA led to a gain of 1.2 QALYs at a cost per QALY of £11,000. The results were robust to other assumptions including the approach taken to projecting long-term outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: DrotAA is cost-effective in routine practice for severe sepsis patients with three to five organ systems failing. For patients with two organ systems failing, this study could not provide unequivocal evidence on the cost-effectiveness of DrotAA.
Assuntos
Anti-Infecciosos/economia , Insuficiência de Múltiplos Órgãos/tratamento farmacológico , Proteína C/economia , Sepse/tratamento farmacológico , Idoso , Anti-Infecciosos/uso terapêutico , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Análise Custo-Benefício , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Insuficiência de Múltiplos Órgãos/complicações , Insuficiência de Múltiplos Órgãos/mortalidade , Estudos Prospectivos , Proteína C/uso terapêutico , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Proteínas Recombinantes/economia , Proteínas Recombinantes/uso terapêutico , Sepse/mortalidade , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
CONTEXT: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) can support gas exchange in patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), but its role has remained controversial. ECMO was used to treat patients with ARDS during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic. OBJECTIVE: To compare the hospital mortality of patients with H1N1-related ARDS referred, accepted, and transferred for ECMO with matched patients who were not referred for ECMO. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: A cohort study in which ECMO-referred patients were defined as all patients with H1N1-related ARDS who were referred, accepted, and transferred to 1 of the 4 adult ECMO centers in the United Kingdom during the H1N1 pandemic in winter 2009-2010. The ECMO-referred patients and the non-ECMO-referred patients were matched using data from a concurrent, longitudinal cohort study (Swine Flu Triage study) of critically ill patients with suspected or confirmed H1N1. Detailed demographic, physiological, and comorbidity data were used in 3 different matching techniques (individual matching, propensity score matching, and GenMatch matching). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Survival to hospital discharge analyzed according to the intention-to-treat principle. RESULTS: Of 80 ECMO-referred patients, 69 received ECMO (86.3%) and 22 died (27.5%) prior to discharge from the hospital. From a pool of 1756 patients, there were 59 matched pairs of ECMO-referred patients and non-ECMO-referred patients identified using individual matching, 75 matched pairs identified using propensity score matching, and 75 matched pairs identified using GenMatch matching. The hospital mortality rate was 23.7% for ECMO-referred patients vs 52.5% for non-ECMO-referred patients (relative risk [RR], 0.45 [95% CI, 0.26-0.79]; P = .006) when individual matching was used; 24.0% vs 46.7%, respectively (RR, 0.51 [95% CI, 0.31-0.81]; P = .008) when propensity score matching was used; and 24.0% vs 50.7%, respectively (RR, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.31-0.72]; P = .001) when GenMatch matching was used. The results were robust to sensitivity analyses, including amending the inclusion criteria and restricting the location where the non-ECMO-referred patients were treated. CONCLUSION: For patients with H1N1-related ARDS, referral and transfer to an ECMO center was associated with lower hospital mortality compared with matched non-ECMO-referred patients.
Assuntos
Oxigenação por Membrana Extracorpórea , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1 , Influenza Humana/mortalidade , Transferência de Pacientes , Síndrome do Desconforto Respiratório/terapia , Adulto , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Humanos , Influenza Humana/complicações , Influenza Humana/terapia , Análise de Intenção de Tratamento , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Encaminhamento e Consulta , Síndrome do Desconforto Respiratório/etiologia , Análise de Sobrevida , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Vasopressors are administered to critical care patients to avoid hypotension, which is associated with myocardial injury, kidney injury and death. However, they work by causing vasoconstriction, which may reduce blood flow and cause other adverse effects. A mean arterial pressure target typically guides administration. An individual patient data meta-analysis (Lamontagne F, Day AG, Meade MO, Cook DJ, Guyatt GH, Hylands M, et al. Pooled analysis of higher versus lower blood pressure targets for vasopressor therapy septic and vasodilatory shock. Intensive Care Med 2018;44:12-21) suggested that greater exposure, through higher mean arterial pressure targets, may increase risk of death in older patients. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of reduced vasopressor exposure through permissive hypotension (i.e. a lower mean arterial pressure target of 60-65 mmHg) in older critically ill patients. DESIGN: A pragmatic, randomised clinical trial with integrated economic evaluation. SETTING: Sixty-five NHS adult general critical care units. PARTICIPANTS: Critically ill patients aged ≥ 65 years receiving vasopressors for vasodilatory hypotension. INTERVENTIONS: Intervention - permissive hypotension (i.e. a mean arterial pressure target of 60-65 mmHg). Control (usual care) - a mean arterial pressure target at the treating clinician's discretion. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary clinical outcome was 90-day all-cause mortality. The primary cost-effectiveness outcome was 90-day incremental net monetary benefit. Secondary outcomes included receipt and duration of advanced respiratory and renal support, mortality at critical care and acute hospital discharge, and questionnaire assessment of cognitive decline and health-related quality of life at 90 days and 1 year. RESULTS: Of 2600 patients randomised, 2463 (permissive hypotension, n = 1221; usual care, n = 1242) were analysed for the primary clinical outcome. Permissive hypotension resulted in lower exposure to vasopressors than usual care [mean duration 46.0 vs. 55.9 hours, difference -9.9 hours (95% confidence interval -14.3 to -5.5 hours); total noradrenaline-equivalent dose 31.5 mg vs. 44.3 mg, difference -12.8 mg (95% CI -18.0 mg to -17.6 mg)]. By 90 days, 500 (41.0%) patients in the permissive hypotension group and 544 (43.8%) patients in the usual-care group had died (absolute risk difference -2.85%, 95% confidence interval -6.75% to 1.05%; p = 0.154). Adjustment for prespecified baseline variables resulted in an odds ratio for 90-day mortality of 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.98) favouring permissive hypotension. There were no significant differences in prespecified secondary outcomes or subgroups; however, patients with chronic hypertension showed a mortality difference favourable to permissive hypotension. At 90 days, permissive hypotension showed similar costs to usual care. However, with higher incremental life-years and quality-adjusted life-years in the permissive hypotension group, the incremental net monetary benefit was positive, but with high statistical uncertainty (£378, 95% confidence interval -£1347 to £2103). LIMITATIONS: The intervention was unblinded, with risk of bias minimised through central allocation concealment and a primary outcome not subject to observer bias. The control group event rate was higher than anticipated. CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill patients aged ≥ 65 years receiving vasopressors for vasodilatory hypotension, permissive hypotension did not significantly reduce 90-day mortality compared with usual care. The absolute treatment effect on 90-day mortality, based on 95% confidence intervals, was between a 6.8-percentage reduction and a 1.1-percentage increase in mortality. FUTURE WORK: Future work should (1) update the individual patient data meta-analysis, (2) explore approaches for evaluating heterogeneity of treatment effect and (3) explore 65 trial conduct, including use of deferred consent, to inform future trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN10580502. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 14. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
Low blood pressure is common in patients in intensive care. It is associated with a high risk of death. It can be treated with drugs called vasopressors. These drugs raise blood pressure, but also come with risks and side effects. Usually, a blood pressure target is used to guide how much of the drugs to give to patients. Two previous clinical trials suggested that using a lower blood pressure target (and therefore giving less of the drugs) might reduce the number of deaths among older patients. However, although these results were promising, more research was needed to find out if they were correct. The 65 trial was carried out to test if using a lower blood pressure target really did improve outcomes for older patients. The trial also looked at whether or not it would provide value for money for the NHS. A total of 2600 patients aged ≥ 65 years who had low blood pressure in intensive care joined the trial. Half were randomly assigned to the new lower blood pressure target (less drugs). The other half were assigned to usual care (control group). As we had hoped, patients in the low blood pressure target group received less vasopressor drugs than the usual-care group. After 90 days, 41% of patients in the new low blood pressure target group had died, compared with 44% in the usual-care group. Although fewer patients died in the low blood pressure target group, the difference was small and may have occurred by chance. On average, the new target saved a small amount of money for the NHS. Although we could not prove that use of a lower blood pressure target saves lives for older patients in intensive care, our trial suggests that it might. Receiving less vasopressor drugs appeared safe for patients.
Assuntos
Estado Terminal , Hipotensão , Adulto , Idoso , Análise Custo-Benefício , Humanos , Hipotensão/tratamento farmacológico , Qualidade de Vida , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como AssuntoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The FIRST-ABC trial comprises of two pragmatic, multicentre, parallel groups, non-inferiority randomised clinical trials designed to evaluate the clinical non-inferiority of first-line use of high flow nasal cannula (HFNC) to continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) in critically ill children who require non-invasive respiratory support (NRS). OBJECTIVES: To describe the pre-specified statistical and health economic analysis for the FIRST-ABC trial before completion of patient recruitment and data collection. METHODS: The statistical analysis plan was designed by the chief investigators and statisticians. We define the primary and secondary outcomes, summarise methods for data collection and safety monitoring, and present a detailed description of the planned statistical and health economic analysis. RESULTS: The primary clinical outcome is time to liberation from respiratory support. The primary effect estimate will be the adjusted hazard ratio, reported with a 95% confidence interval. As a sensitivity analysis, the primary analysis will be repeated using time to start weaning of NRS. Subgroup analyses will be performed to test for interactions between the effect of allocated treatment group and pre-specified baseline covariates. The health economic analysis will follow the intention-to-treat principle and report the mean (95% confidence interval) incremental costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost-effectiveness up to 6 months. All analyses will be performed separately for each of the two trials, and any results will not be combined. CONCLUSION: The FIRST-ABC trial will assess the non-inferiority of HFNC compared to CPAP in two parallel trials with shared infrastructure (step-up RCT and step-down RCT). We have developed a pre-specified statistical and health economics analysis plan for the FIRST-ABC study before trial completion to minimise analytical bias. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN60048867 . Registered on 19 June 2019.
Assuntos
Cânula , Pressão Positiva Contínua nas Vias Aéreas , Criança , Análise Custo-Benefício , Humanos , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de VidaRESUMO
Vasodilatory shock is common in critically ill patients and vasopressors are a mainstay of therapy. A meta-analysis suggested that use of a higher, as opposed to a lower, mean arterial pressure target to guide titration of vasopressor therapy, could be associated with a higher risk of death in older critically ill patients. The 65 trial is a pragmatic, multi-centre, parallel-group, open-label, randomised clinical trial of permissive hypotension (a mean arterial pressure target of 60 -65 mmHg during vasopressor therapy) versus usual care in critically ill patients aged 65 years or over with vasodilatory hypotension. The trial is conducted in 2600 patients from 65 United Kingdom adult, general critical care units. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality at 90 days. An economic evaluation is embedded. The 65 trial received favourable ethical opinion from the South Central - Oxford C Research Ethics Committee and approval from the Health Research Authority. The results will be presented at national and international conferences and published in peer-reviewed medical journals. Trial registration: ISRCTN10580502.
RESUMO
The 65 trial is a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel-group, open-label, randomised clinical trial of permissive hypotension (targeting a mean arterial pressure target of 60-65 mmHg during vasopressor therapy) versus usual care in critically ill patients aged 65 years or over with vasodilatory hypotension. The trial will recruit 2600 patients from 65 United Kingdom adult general critical care units. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality at 90 days. An economic evaluation is embedded. This paper describes the proposed statistical and health economic analysis for the 65 trial.
RESUMO
Individuals' free choices in vaccination do not guarantee social optimum since individuals' decision is based on imperfect information, and vaccination decision involves positive externality. Public policy of compulsory vaccination or subsidised vaccination aims to increase aggregate private demand closer to social optimum. However, there is controversy over the effectiveness of public intervention compared to the free choice outcome in vaccination, and this article provides a brief discussion on this issue. It can be summarised that individuals' incentives to vaccination and accordingly their behavioural responses can greatly influence public policy's pursuit to control disease transmission, and compulsory (or subsidised) vaccination policy without incorporating such behavioural responses will not be able to achieve the best social outcome.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Malnutrition is a common problem in critically ill patients in UK NHS critical care units. Early nutritional support is therefore recommended to address deficiencies in nutritional state and related disorders in metabolism. However, evidence is conflicting regarding the optimum route (parenteral or enteral) of delivery. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effect of early nutritional support via the parenteral route compared with the enteral route on mortality at 30 days and on incremental cost-effectiveness at 1 year. Secondary objectives were to compare the route of early nutritional support on duration of organ support; infectious and non-infectious complications; critical care unit and acute hospital length of stay; all-cause mortality at critical care unit and acute hospital discharge, at 90 days and 1 year; survival to 90 days and 1 year; nutritional and health-related quality of life, resource use and costs at 90 days and 1 year; and estimated lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: A pragmatic, open, multicentre, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with an integrated economic evaluation. SETTING: Adult general critical care units in 33 NHS hospitals in England. PARTICIPANTS: 2400 eligible patients. INTERVENTIONS: Five days of early nutritional support delivered via the parenteral (n = 1200) and enteral (n = 1200) route. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause mortality at 30 days after randomisation and incremental net benefit (INB) (at £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year) at 1 year. RESULTS: By 30 days, 393 of 1188 (33.1%) patients assigned to receive early nutritional support via the parenteral route and 409 of 1195 (34.2%) assigned to the enteral route had died [p = 0.57; absolute risk reduction 1.15%, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.65 to 4.94; relative risk 0.97 (0.86 to 1.08)]. At 1 year, INB for the parenteral route compared with the enteral route was negative at -£1320 (95% CI -£3709 to £1069). The probability that early nutritional support via the parenteral route is more cost-effective - given the data - is < 20%. The proportion of patients in the parenteral group who experienced episodes of hypoglycaemia (p = 0.006) and of vomiting (p < 0.001) was significantly lower than in the enteral group. There were no significant differences in the 15 other secondary outcomes and no significant interactions with pre-specified subgroups. LIMITATIONS: Blinding of nutritional support was deemed to be impractical and, although the primary outcome was objective, some secondary outcomes, although defined and objectively assessed, may have been more vulnerable to observer bias. CONCLUSIONS: There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality at 30 days for early nutritional support via the parenteral route compared with the enteral route among adults admitted to critical care units in England. On average, costs were higher for the parenteral route, which, combined with similar survival and quality of life, resulted in negative INBs at 1 year. FUTURE WORK: Nutritional support is a complex combination of timing, dose, duration, delivery and type, all of which may affect outcomes and costs. Conflicting evidence remains regarding optimum provision to critically ill patients. There is a need to utilise rigorous consensus methods to establish future priorities for basic and clinical research in this area. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17386141. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 28. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
Assuntos
Estado Terminal/terapia , Nutrição Enteral , Nutrição Parenteral , Idoso , Análise Custo-Benefício , Estado Terminal/economia , Inglaterra , Nutrição Enteral/economia , Feminino , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Tempo de Internação , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Nutrição Parenteral/economia , Qualidade de Vida , Análise de Sobrevida , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Early goal-directed therapy (EGDT) is recommended in international guidance for the resuscitation of patients presenting with early septic shock. However, adoption has been limited and uncertainty remains over its clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective was to estimate the effect of EGDT compared with usual resuscitation on mortality at 90 days following randomisation and on incremental cost-effectiveness at 1 year. The secondary objectives were to compare EGDT with usual resuscitation for requirement for, and duration of, critical care unit organ support; length of stay in the emergency department (ED), critical care unit and acute hospital; health-related quality of life, resource use and costs at 90 days and at 1 year; all-cause mortality at 28 days, at acute hospital discharge and at 1 year; and estimated lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: A pragmatic, open, multicentre, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with an integrated economic evaluation. SETTING: Fifty-six NHS hospitals in England. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1260 patients who presented at EDs with septic shock. INTERVENTIONS: EGDT (n = 630) or usual resuscitation (n = 630). Patients were randomly allocated 1 : 1. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause mortality at 90 days after randomisation and incremental net benefit (at £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year) at 1 year. RESULTS: Following withdrawals, data on 1243 (EGDT, n = 623; usual resuscitation, n = 620) patients were included in the analysis. By 90 days, 184 (29.5%) in the EGDT and 181 (29.2%) patients in the usual-resuscitation group had died [p = 0.90; absolute risk reduction -0.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI) -5.4 to 4.7; relative risk 1.01, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.20]. Treatment intensity was greater for the EGDT group, indicated by the increased use of intravenous fluids, vasoactive drugs and red blood cell transfusions. Increased treatment intensity was reflected by significantly higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores and more advanced cardiovascular support days in critical care for the EGDT group. At 1 year, the incremental net benefit for EGDT versus usual resuscitation was negative at -£725 (95% CI -£3000 to £1550). The probability that EGDT was more cost-effective than usual resuscitation was below 30%. There were no significant differences in any other secondary outcomes, including health-related quality of life, or adverse events. LIMITATIONS: Recruitment was lower at weekends and out of hours. The intervention could not be blinded. CONCLUSIONS: There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality at 90 days for EGDT compared with usual resuscitation among adults identified with early septic shock presenting to EDs in England. On average, costs were higher in the EGDT group than in the usual-resuscitation group while quality-adjusted life-years were similar in both groups; the probability that it is cost-effective is < 30%. FUTURE WORK: The ProMISe (Protocolised Management In Sepsis) trial completes the planned trio of evaluations of EGDT across the USA, Australasia and England; all have indicated that EGDT is not superior to usual resuscitation. Recognising that each of the three individual, large trials has limited power for evaluating potentially important subgroups, the harmonised approach adopted provides the opportunity to conduct an individual patient data meta-analysis, enhancing both knowledge and generalisability. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN36307479. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 97. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
Assuntos
Ressuscitação/métodos , Choque Séptico/terapia , Adulto , Análise Custo-Benefício , Gerenciamento Clínico , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Inglaterra , Fidelidade a Diretrizes , Humanos , Ressuscitação/economia , Choque Séptico/economia , Choque Séptico/mortalidade , Avaliação da Tecnologia Biomédica , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
Faced with an epidemic of an infectious disease, persons may take precautionary actions to try to reduce their risk. Such actions include avoiding situations that persons perceive to be risky, which can have negative health and economic effects. Therefore, we conducted a population-based survey of persons' precautionary actions in response to a hypothetical influenza pandemic. For the 5 European and 3 Asian regions that had been affected by severe acute respiratory syndrome, the pattern of reported precautionary action was broadly similar across the regions; approximately 75% of respondents reported that they would avoid public transportation and 20%-30% would try to stay indoors. Some regional differences were noted; Europeans were more likely than Asians to avoid places of entertainment, and Asians were more likely to avoid seeing physicians. This international survey provides insight into what might be expected during an influenza pandemic.