RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program explored the feasibility and impact of contact tracing and the provision of single dose rifampicin (SDR) to eligible contacts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Tanzania. As the impact of the programme is difficult to establish in the short term, we apply mathematical modelling to predict its long-term impact on the leprosy incidence. METHODOLOGY: The individual-based model SIMCOLEP was calibrated and validated to the historic leprosy incidence data in the study areas. For each area, we assessed two scenarios: 1) continuation of existing routine activities as in 2014; and 2) routine activities combined with LPEP starting in 2015. The number of contacts per index patient screened varied from 1 to 36 between areas. Projections were made until 2040. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In all areas, the LPEP program increased the number of detected cases in the first year(s) of the programme as compared to the routine programme, followed by a faster reduction afterwards with increasing benefit over time. LPEP could accelerate the reduction of the leprosy incidence by up to six years as compared to the routine programme. The impact of LPEP varied by area due to differences in the number of contacts per index patient included and differences in leprosy epidemiology and routine control programme. CONCLUSIONS: The LPEP program contributes significantly to the reduction of the leprosy incidence and could potentially accelerate the interruption of transmission. It would be advisable to include contact tracing/screening and SDR in routine leprosy programmes.
Assuntos
Busca de Comunicante/métodos , Hanseníase/epidemiologia , Hanseníase/prevenção & controle , Programas de Rastreamento/métodos , Prevenção Primária/métodos , Brasil , Humanos , Índia , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Hansenostáticos/uso terapêutico , Mianmar/epidemiologia , Nepal/epidemiologia , Profilaxia Pós-Exposição/métodos , Rifampina/uso terapêutico , Sri Lanka/epidemiologia , Tanzânia/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Data from a nationally representative study in Bangladesh (BDHS 1996-97) were analysed to identify significant predictors of use of periodic abstinence, in comparison with other modern contraceptive methods. The study found that women in Bangladesh mostly use modern methods during their peak reproductive years, after which some of them switch to periodic abstinence. These women tend to be more from educated and from higher socioeconomic backgrounds and with at least one living son. Another set of data from the Matlab DSS was analysed and the results were in the same direction. Focus group discussions found that women were using the periodic abstinence method incorrectly, abstaining for more days than is necessary. For Bangladeshi contraceptive users to reach a higher degree of use-effectiveness for period abstinence, more IEC materials need to be developed.