Predicting survival after transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma using a neural network: A Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Deciding when to repeat and when to stop transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can be difficult even for experienced investigators. Our aim was to develop a survival prediction model for such patients undergoing TACE using novel machine learning algorithms and to compare it to conventional prediction scores, ART, ABCR and SNACOR. METHODS: For this retrospective analysis, 282 patients who underwent TACE for HCC at our tertiary referral centre between January 2005 and December 2017 were included in the final analysis. We built an artificial neural network (ANN) including all parameters used by the aforementioned risk scores and other clinically meaningful parameters. Following an 80:20 split, the first 225 patients were used for training; the more recently treated 20% were used for validation. RESULTS: The ANN had a promising performance at predicting 1-year survival, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.77 ± 0.13. Internal validation yielded an AUC of 0.83 ± 0.06, a positive predictive value of 87.5% and a negative predictive value of 68.0%. The sensitivity was 77.8% and specificity 81.0%. In a head-to-head comparison, the ANN outperformed the aforementioned scoring systems, which yielded lower AUCs (SNACOR 0.73 ± 0.07, ABCR 0.70 ± 0.07 and ART 0.54 ± 0.08). This difference reached significance for ART (P < .001); for ABCR and SNACOR significance was not reached (P = .143 and P = .201). CONCLUSIONS: Artificial neural networks could be better at predicting patient survival after TACE for HCC than traditional scoring systems. Once established, such prediction models could easily be deployed in clinical routine and help determine optimal patient care.

Endovascular simulation training: a tool to increase enthusiasm for interventional radiology among medical students.

OBJECTIVES: Interventional radiology (IR) is a growing field but is underrepresented in most medical school curricula. We tested whether endovascular simulator training improves medical students' attitudes towards IR. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted this prospective study at two university medical centers; overall, 305 fourth-year medical students completed a 90-min IR course. The class consisted of theoretical and practical parts involving endovascular simulators. Students completed questionnaires before the course, after the theoretical and after the practical part. On a 7-point Likert scale, they rated their interest in IR, knowledge of IR, attractiveness of IR, and the likelihood to choose IR as subspecialty. We used a crossover design to prevent position-effect bias. RESULTS: The seminar/simulator parts led to the improvement for all items compared with baseline: interest in IR (pre-course 5.2 vs. post-seminar/post-simulator 5.5/5.7), knowledge of IR (pre-course 2.7 vs. post-seminar/post-simulator 5.1/5.4), attractiveness of IR (pre-course 4.6 vs. post-seminar/post-simulator 4.8/5.0), and the likelihood of choosing IR as a subspecialty (pre-course 3.3 vs. post-seminar/post-simulator 3.8/4.1). Effect was significantly stronger for simulator training compared with that for seminar for all items (p < 0.05). For simulator training, subgroup analysis of students with pre-existing positive attitude showed considerable improvement regarding "interest in IR" (× 1.4), "knowledge of IR" (× 23), "attractiveness of IR" (× 2), and "likelihood to choose IR" (× 3.2) compared with pretest. CONCLUSION: Endovascular simulator training significantly improves students' attitude towards IR regarding all items. Implementing such courses at a very early stage in the curriculum should be the first step to expose medical students to IR and push for IR. KEY POINTS: • Dedicated IR-courses have a significant positive effect on students' attitudes towards IR. • Simulator training is superior to a theoretical seminar in positively influencing students' attitudes towards IR. • Implementing dedicated IR courses in medical school might ease recruitment problems in the field.

The role of sarcopenia in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Prognostic marker or hyped parameter?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Sarcopenia has emerged as a prognostic parameter in numerous cancer entities. Current research favours its role as a determining factor for overall survival (OS) in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC); however, it is unclear whether sarcopenia is a truly independent survival predictor if combined with established prognostic factors. METHODS: Between 1997-2018, 417 patients with histopathologically confirmed ICC were referred to our centre, of whom 293 were included in this study. Cross-sectional imaging, laboratory examinations and histopathological reports were retrospectively analysed. Psoas muscle index (PMI) as easy-to-measure marker of sarcopenia was calculated. Using optimal stratification, sex-specific PMI cut-offs were calculated and tested in hazard regression models against previously published risk factors-for the entire cohort, and within resected and non-resected subgroups. RESULTS: Median OS for patients with low respectively high PMI was 23.5 and 34.5 months in the resected subgroup (P = 0.008) and 5.1 and 7.8 months (P = 0.01) in the non-resected subgroup. In multivariate hazard regression models for the entire cohort, low PMI exhibited independent predictive value (P = 0.01) as did translobar tumour spread (P = 0.005), extrahepatic extension (P = 0.03), tumour boundary type (P < 0.001), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) levels (P = 0.001), alkaline phosphatase levels (P = 0.001) and distant metastasis (P < 0.001). In subgroup analyses, low PMI remained predictive among non-resected patients (P = 0.03), but lost its predictive value among resected patients (P = 0.15). CONCLUSIONS: Psoas muscle index strongly predicted OS in univariate analysis. However, addition of established risk factors eliminated its predictive value among resected patients. Thus, when resection is deemed oncologically reasonable, patients should not be excluded from surgery because of sarcopenia alone.

Extent of portal vein tumour thrombosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: The more, the worse?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Portal vein tumour thrombosis (PVTT) has a significant impact on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The degree of PVTT varies from sub-/segmental invasion to complete occlusion of the main trunk. Aim of this study was to evaluate whether the degree of PVTT correlates with prognosis. METHODS: A total of 1317 patients with HCC treated at our tertiary referral centre between January 2005 and December 2016 were included. PVTT was diagnosed by contrast-enhanced computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. The extent of PVTT was documented according to the Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan classification: Vp0 = no PVTT, Vp1 = segmental portal vein invasion, Vp2 = right anterior/posterior portal vein, Vp3 = right/left portal vein and Vp4 = main trunk. Median overall survival (OS) was calculated for each group. RESULTS: Portal vein tumour thrombosis was present in 484 (36.8%) patients. Median OS without PVTT was 35.7 months, significantly longer than in patients with PVTT (7.2 months, P < 0.001). The patients with PVTT were subclassified as follows: 103 Vp1, 87 Vp2, 143 Vp3 and 151 Vp4. The corresponding median OS yielded 14.6, 9.4, 5.8 and 4.8 months for Vp1-Vp4, respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Portal vein tumour thrombosis in patients with HCC is associated with a dismal prognosis. The results indicate an association between the extent of PVTT and OS. However, the extent of PVTT is not that decisive, as even minor PVTT leads to a very poor prognosis. Therefore, meticulous evaluation of cross-sectional imaging is crucial for the clinical management of patients with HCC.

[Hepatocellular carcinoma in an inflammatory adenoma with ß-catenin mutation in a patient with hepatocellular adenomatosis due to germline mutation in HNF1α]. / Entstehung eines hepatozellulären Karzinoms in einem inflammatorischen Adenom mit ß-Catenin-Mutation bei einem Patienten mit hepatozellulärer Adenomatose und HNF1α-Keimbahnmutation.

Hepatocyte nuclear factor 1 α (HNF1α) mutations cause maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) type 3 and are associated with hepatocellular adenomatosis. Malignant transformation of HNF1α-mutated hepatocellular adenomas is rare. We report a case of a 28-year-old man with HNF1α-inactivated adenomatosis who developed an inflammatory adenoma with ß catenin mutation with malignant transformation into a well-differentiated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Validation of insulin-like growth factor-1 as a prognostic parameter in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in a European cohort.

BACKGROUND: In hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (CTP) is one of the most established tools to assess hepatic reserve and determine survival. Serum levels of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) are decreased in patients with chronic liver disease or HCC. A modified score combining circulating IGF-1 with the CTP score (IGF-CTP) was recently proposed. METHODS: IGF-CTP scoring was evaluated in 216 patients diagnosed with HCC between 2007 and 2017 to assess the predictive value of serum IGF-1 levels for patient risk stratification and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Liver cirrhosis was identified in 80.1% of the study cohort, and alcohol-induced liver disease was the most frequent underlying cause of HCC (44.4%). Serum IGF-1 levels were significantly lower in patients with HCC in cirrhosis compared with non-cirrhotic HCC (p < 0.01). A lower serum level of IGF-1 was associated with more advanced stages of liver cirrhosis (p < 0.05) and cancer stages (p < 0.001). Median OS in the cohort was 11.4 months (range 0.5-118.2 months). OS was significantly higher (10.9 vs. 7.9 months; p < 0.05) in patients with a serum IGF-1 level above the median of 43.4 ng/mL. Patient reassignment using IGF-CTP scoring reclassified 35.6% of patients. Through reassignment, stratification regarding OS was comparable to CTP. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to investigate IGF-1 and the IGF-CTP classification in a European cohort of HCC patients. Serum IGF-1 correlates with OS in patients with HCC. However, the IGF-CTP classification was not superior compared to CTP score regarding OS.

Validation of the SNACOR clinical scoring system after transarterial chemoembolisation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Transarterial chemoembolisation is the standard of care for intermediate stage (BCLC B) hepatocellular carcinoma, but it is challenging to decide when to repeat or stop treatment. Here we performed the first external validation of the SNACOR (tumour Size and Number, baseline Alpha-fetoprotein, Child-Pugh and Objective radiological Response) risk prediction model. METHODS: A total of 1030 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma underwent transarterial chemoembolisation at our tertiary referral centre from January 2000 to December 2016. We determined the following variables that were needed to calculate the SNACOR at baseline: tumour size and number, alpha-fetoprotein level, Child-Pugh class, and objective radiological response after the first transarterial chemoembolisation. Overall survival, time-dependent area under receiver-operating characteristic curves, Harrell's C-index, and the integrated Brier score were calculated to assess predictive ability. Finally, multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of survival. RESULTS: The study included 268 patients. Low, intermediate, and high SNACOR scores predicted a median survival of 31.5, 19.9, and 9.2 months, respectively. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for overall survival were 0.641, 0.633, and 0.609 at 1, 3, and 6 years, respectively. Harrell's C-index was 0.59, and the integrated Brier Score was 0.175. Independent predictors of survival included tumour size (P < 0.001), baseline alpha-fetoprotein level (P < 0.001) and Child-Pugh class (P < 0.004). Objective radiological response (P = 0.821) and tumour number (P = 0.127) were not additional independent predictors of survival. CONCLUSIONS: The SNACOR risk prediction model can be used to identify patients with a dismal prognosis after the first transarterial chemoembolisation who are unlikely to benefit from further transarterial chemoembolisation. However, Harrell's C-index showed only moderate performance. Accordingly, this risk prediction model can only serve as one of several components used to make the decision about whether to repeat treatment.

Visceral artery aneurysms: Incidence, management, and outcome analysis in a tertiary care center over one decade.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the incidence, management, and outcome of visceral artery aneurysms (VAA) over one decade. METHODS: 233 patients with 253 VAA were analyzed according to location, diameter, aneurysm type, aetiology, rupture, management, and outcome. RESULTS: VAA were localized at the splenic artery, coeliac trunk, renal artery, hepatic artery, superior mesenteric artery, and other locations. The aetiology was degenerative, iatrogenic after medical procedures, connective tissue disease, and others. The rate of rupture was much higher in pseudoaneurysms than true aneurysms (76.3% vs.3.1%). Fifty-nine VAA were treated by intervention (n = 45) or surgery (n = 14). Interventions included embolization with coils or glue, covered stents, or combinations of these. Thirty-five cases with ruptured VAA were treated on an emergency basis. There was no difference in size between ruptured and non-ruptured VAA. After interventional treatment, the 30-day mortality was 6.7% in ruptured VAA compared to no mortality in non-ruptured cases. Follow-up included CT and/or MRI after a mean period of 18.0 ± 26.8 months. The current status of the patient was obtained by a structured telephone survey. CONCLUSIONS: Pseudoaneurysms of visceral arteries have a high risk for rupture. Aneurysm size seems to be no reliable predictor for rupture. Interventional treatment is safe and effective for management of VAA. KEY POINTS: • Diagnosis of visceral artery aneurysms is increasing due to CT and MRI. • Diameter of visceral arterial aneurysms is no reliable predictor for rupture. • False aneurysms/pseudoaneurysms and symptomatic cases need emergency treatment. • Interventional treatment is safe and effective.

Outcomes of complex femorodistal sequential autologous vein and biologic prosthesis composite bypass grafts.

OBJECTIVE: Femorodistal autologous vein bypass proves to be the preferred surgical therapy for long arterial occlusions and provides excellent early and long-term results in critical lower limb ischemia. Whenever vein length was insufficient and two distal outflow arteries were present, a sequential composite bypass configuration was chosen with human umbilical vein (HUV) or ovine collagen prosthesis (Omniflow II; Bio Nova International Pty Ltd, North Melbourne, Australia) as the proximal prosthetic part of the bypass. Single-center experience with this technique regarding limb salvage, graft function, secondary reinterventions, and biodegeneration is presented. METHODS: Between January 1998 and January 2009, 122 consecutive sequential composite bypass operations were performed on 116 patients for short-distance claudication (2), chronic critical ischemia (117), or acute ischemia (3) in the absence of sufficient autologous vein length. HUV was used in 90 cases and Omniflow II in 32 cases. Grafts were followed by duplex scan supplemented by angiography in case of recurrent ischemia with prospective documentation of follow-up data in a computerized vascular database. Retrospective analysis of graft patency, limb salvage, and aneurysmal degeneration of the biologic prosthesis was performed. RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 59 ± 45.5 months (range, 1-161 months). The 30-day mortality was 4.1%. Early postoperative complete or partial bypass thrombosis developed in 16% (20 cases) and required successful revision in 16 cases. During follow-up, 30 complete and 12 partial bypass occlusions occurred, necessitating selective surgical or interventional revision. Primary, primary assisted, and secondary patency rates and the limb salvage rate were 48%, 62%, 71%, and 87%, respectively, after 5 years and 26%, 46%, 54%, and 77%, respectively, after 10 years for all bypasses. Late biodegeneration of HUV prostheses was detected in four instances. CONCLUSIONS: Late graft patency and limb salvage were good. These factors, combined with a tolerable rate of late aneurysmal degeneration, justify the use of biologic vascular conduits and autologous vein for complex femorodistal reconstructions.

Radiomics-Based Prediction of Future Portal Vein Tumor Infiltration in Patients with HCC-A Proof-of-Concept Study.

Portal vein infiltration (PVI) is a typical complication of HCC. Once diagnosed, it leads to classification as BCLC C with an enormous impact on patient management, as systemic therapies are henceforth recommended. Our aim was to investigate whether radiomics analysis using imaging at initial diagnosis can predict the occurrence of PVI in the course of disease. Between 2008 and 2018, we retrospectively identified 44 patients with HCC and an in-house, multiphase CT scan at initial diagnosis who presented without CT-detectable PVI but developed it in the course of disease. Accounting for size and number of lesions, growth type, arterial enhancement pattern, Child-Pugh stage, AFP levels, and subsequent therapy, we matched 44 patients with HCC who did not develop PVI to those developing PVI in the course of disease (follow-up ended December 2021). After segmentation of the tumor at initial diagnosis and texture analysis, we used LASSO regression to find radiomics features suitable for PVI detection in this matched set. Using an 80:20 split between training and holdout validation dataset, 17 radiomics features remained in the fitted model. Applying the model to the holdout validation dataset, sensitivity to detect occurrence of PVI was 0.78 and specificity was 0.78. Radiomics feature extraction had the ability to detect aggressive HCC morphology likely to result in future PVI. An additional radiomics evaluation at initial diagnosis might be a useful tool to identify patients with HCC at risk for PVI during follow-up benefiting from a closer surveillance.

Hepatic vein tumor thrombosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: Prevalence and clinical significance.

BACKGROUND: There is strong evidence that portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) is associated with poor survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, data regarding the clinical significance of hepatic vein tumor thrombosis (HVTT) is rare, particularly in Western patients. OBJECTIVE: To determine the HVTT prevalence in a Western patient population and its impact on survival. METHODS: We included 1310 patients with HCC treated in our tertiary referral center between January 2005 and December 2016. HVTT and PVTT were diagnosed with contrast-enhanced cross-sectional imaging. Overall survival (OS) was calculated starting from the initial HCC diagnosis, and in a second step, starting from the first appearance of vascular invasion. RESULTS: We observed macrovascular invasion (MVI) in 519 patients who suffered from either isolated HVTT (n = 40), isolated PVTT (n = 352), or both combined (HVTT + PVTT) (n = 127). Calculated from the initial HCC diagnosis, the median OS for patients with isolated HVTT was significantly shorter than that of patients without MVI (13.3 vs. 32.5 months, p < 0.001). Calculated from the first appearance of MVI, the median OS was similar among patients with isolated HVTT (6.5 months), isolated PVTT (5 months), and HVTT + PVTT (5 months). Multivariate analysis confirmed HVTT as an independent risk factor for poor survival. CONCLUSIONS: HVTT may be more common than typically reported. In most patients, it was accompanied by PVTT. Isolated HVTT occurred less frequently and later than isolated PVTT; however, once developed, it had the same deleterious impact on survival. Therefore, patients with HVTT should be classified as advanced stage of HCC.

The impact of portal vein tumor thrombosis on survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with different therapies: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) is a frequent complication of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which leads to classification as advanced stage disease (regardless of the degree of PVTT) according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Classification. For such patients, systemic therapy is the standard of care. However, in clinical reality, many patients with PVTT undergo different treatments, such as resection, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT), or best supportive care (BSC). Here we examined whether patients benefited from such alternative therapies, according to the extent of PVTT. METHODS: This analysis included therapy-naïve patients with HCC and PVTT treated between January 2005 and December 2016. PVTT was classified according to the Liver Cancer study group of Japan as follows: Vp1 = segmental PV invasion; Vp2 = right anterior or posterior PV; Vp3 = right or left PV; Vp4 = main trunk. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed for each treatment subgroup considering the extent of PVTT. We performed Cox regression analysis with adjustment for possible confounders. To further attenuate selection bias, we applied propensity score weighting using the inverse probability of treatment weights. RESULTS: A total of 278 treatment-naïve patients with HCC and PVTT were included for analysis. The median observed OS in months for each treatment modality (resection, TACE/SIRT, sorafenib, BSC, respectively) was 32.4, 8.1, N/A, and 1.7 for Vp1; 10.7, 6.9, 5.5, and 1.2 for Vp2; 6.6, 7.5, 2.9, and 0.6 for Vp3; and 8.0, 3.6, 5.3, and 0.7 for Vp4. Thus, the median OS in the resection group in case of segmental PVTT (Vp1) was significantly longer compared to any other treatment group (all p values <0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment strategy for HCC with PVTT should not be limited to systemic therapy in general. The extent of PVTT should be considered when deciding on treatment alternatives. In patients with segmental PVTT (Vp1), resection should be evaluated.

Risk prediction in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Direct comparison of the MEGNA score and the 8th edition of the UICC/AJCC Cancer staging system.

BACKGROUND: External validation of prognostic risk models is essential before they are implemented in clinical practice. This study evaluated the recently developed MEGNA score for survival prediction after resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), with a focus on the direct comparison of its prognostic value to that of the current International Union Against Cancer (UICC)/American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Cancer staging system. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Between 1997 and 2018, 417 consecutive patients with ICC were referred to our tertiary care centre and were retrospectively identified out of a dedicated clinical database. Of this group, 203 patients underwent surgical resection and met the inclusion criteria. Multivariate analysis was performed to assess the predictors of the recently proposed MEGNA score regarding overall survival (OS). Concordance indices (C-indices) and integrated Brier scores (IBS) were calculated to assess the ability of both the MEGNA score and the current (8th) edition of the UICC/AJCC Cancer staging system to predict individual patient outcome. RESULTS: Stratification according to the MEGNA score resulted in a median OS of 34.5 months, 26.1 months, 21.5 months, and 16.6 months for MEGNA scores 0, 1, 2, and ≥3, respectively (log rank p < 0.001). However, of the five factors that contribute to the MEGNA score, age > 60 years was not a predictor for poor OS in our cohort. The C-index for the MEGNA score was 0.58, the IBS was 0.193. The 8th edition of the UICC/AJCC system performed slightly better, with a C-index of 0.61 and an IBS of 0.186. CONCLUSION: The ability of the MEGNA score to predict individual patient outcome was only moderate in this external validation. Its prognostic value did not reach that of the more widely known and used UICC/AJCC system. However, neither scoring system performed well enough to support clear-cut clinical decisions.