Impacts of climate change on water quality, benthic mussels, and suspended mussel culture in a shallow, eutrophic estuary.

Climate change is a global problem that causes severe local changes to marine biota, ecosystem functioning, and ecosystem services. The Limfjorden is a shallow, eutrophic estuary influenced by episodic summer hypoxia with an important mussel fishery and suspended mussel culture industry. Three future climate change scenarios ranging from low greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1-2.6), to intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high emissions (SSP5-8.5) were combined with nutrient load reductions according to the National Water Plans to investigate potential impacts on natural benthic mussel populations and suspended mussel culture for the two periods 2051-2060 and 2090-2099, relative to a reference period from 2009 to 2018. The FlexSem model combined 3D hydrodynamics with a pelagic biogeochemical model, a sediment-benthos model, and a dynamic energy budget - farm scale model for mussel culture. Model results showed that the Limfjorden was sensitive to climate change impacts with the strongest responses of physics and water quality in the worst case SSP5-8.5 scenario with no nutrient reductions. In the two low emissions scenarios, expected improvements of bottom oxygen and Chlorophyll a concentrations due to reduced nutrient loads were counteracted by climate change impacts on water physics (warming, freshening, stronger stratification). Hence, higher nutrient reductions in the Water Plans would be needed to reach a good ecological status under the influence of climate change. Suspended mussel culture was intensified in all scenarios showing a high potential harvest, whereas the benthic mussels suffered from reduced food supply and hypoxia. Provided the environmental changes and trends in social demands, in the future, it is likely that suspended mussel cultivation will become the primary source of mussels for the industry. Model scenarios can be used to inform managers, mussel farmers, fishermen, and the local population on potential future changes in bivalve harvesting and ecosystem health, and to find solutions to mitigate climate change impacts.

Nutrient extraction and ecosystem impact by suspended mussel mitigation cultures at two contrasting sites.

Mussel mitigation culture is increasingly recognized as a tool to extract nutrients from eutrophic systems by harvesting mussel biomass and nutrients contained therein. The net effect of mussel production on the nutrient cycling in the ecosystem is, however, not straightforward due to the interaction with physical- and biogeochemical processes regulating ecosystem functioning. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the potential of using mussel culture as a tool to mitigate eutrophication at two contrasting sites: a semi-enclosed fjord and a coastal bay. We applied a 3D coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical-sediment model combined with a mussel eco-physiological model. The model was validated against monitoring data and research field data on mussel growth, sediment impacts, and particle depletion from a pilot mussel farm in the study area. Model scenarios with intensified mussel farming in the fjord and/or the bay were conducted. The results showed that mussel mitigation culture still has a high net N-extraction when including ecosystem effects, such as changes in biodeposition, nutrient retention, denitrification, and sediment nutrient fluxes in the model. Mussel farms located in the fjord were more effective in directly addressing excess nutrients and improving water quality due to the relative vicinity to primary nutrient sources (riparian) and physical characteristics of the fjord system. The results will be important to consider in other systems concerning site selection, development of bivalve aquaculture, and associated sampling strategies for monitoring the farming impacts.

Drivers of hypoxia variability in a shallow and eutrophicated semi-enclosed fjord.

Seasonal deoxygenation of coastal waters has been observed with increasing frequency around the world, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and continued benthic capacity to buffer hypoxia. Here, we present a hydrodynamical-ecological model study of the Limfjord in Denmark, an example of a semi-enclosed water body affected by recurring seasonal deoxygenation. Applying observations and model results, we show that water temperature, combined with wind strength and direction are the most important controllers of short-term interannual variability of bottom oxygen, while ventilation through episodic water inflow from the North Sea and local stratification create a spatial decoupling of deoxygenation. Nutrient load to the fjord drives sustained high biological productivity, but does not affect the interannual variability to the same degree. However, high biological turnover rates likely push the system closer towards a deoxygenated state, making the fjord more sensitive to future changes in temperature, wind and ventilation by reducing the buffer capacity of the sediments.

Modelled dispersal pathways of non-indigenous species in the Danish Wadden Sea.

The introduction-rate of non-indigenous species (NIS) to coastal water bodies has accelerated over the last century. We present a model study assessing the fate of NIS released in likely point sources of the Danish Wadden Sea. We show that NIS-particles released in the deep North Sea are generally transported away from the Wadden Sea, while those released in the coastal North Sea and the Wadden Sea show large variability in track pattern and settlement location. Consequently, the introduction of NIS from ships entering the port of Esbjerg pose a threat to the Wadden Sea through primary and secondary spreading, while transport of species from sources in the south likely causes a slow and steady settling of NIS in the Wadden Sea and coastal North Sea. The study points to the importance of enforcing an efficient monitoring system to ensure early detection of changes to the species composition of the Wadden Sea.

Shine a light: Under-ice light and its ecological implications in a changing Arctic Ocean.

The Arctic marine ecosystem is shaped by the seasonality of the solar cycle, spanning from 24-h light at the sea surface in summer to 24-h darkness in winter. The amount of light available for under-ice ecosystems is the result of different physical and biological processes that affect its path through atmosphere, snow, sea ice and water. In this article, we review the present state of knowledge of the abiotic (clouds, sea ice, snow, suspended matter) and biotic (sea ice algae and phytoplankton) controls on the underwater light field. We focus on how the available light affects the seasonal cycle of primary production (sympagic and pelagic) and discuss the sensitivity of ecosystems to changes in the light field based on model simulations. Lastly, we discuss predicted future changes in under-ice light as a consequence of climate change and their potential ecological implications, with the aim of providing a guide for future research.

Methodology for defining homogeneous water bodies for management purposes.

European legislation requires monitoring of toxic algae in marine areas where shellfish are harvested for consumption. Monitoring assumes the existence of homogeneous water bodies, the definition of which have important implications for stakeholders and consumers. Yet, the definition of homogeneous water bodies remains unclear. Here we present a methodology to divide coastal and estuarine waters into homogeneous water bodies to monitor toxic algae. The proposed method is mainly based on water transport, and secondarily on oceanographic characteristics; salinity and sea surface height. We apply the methodology to the Limfjord in Denmark and demonstrate its usefulness in areas with a complicated coastal morphology. The oceanographic descriptors applied in the method are standard outputs from coastal hydrodynamical models. Provided that validated and high resolution model output is available for a given area, the technique is thus adaptable to other morphologically and oceanographically complicated estuarine and coastal areas where toxic algae monitoring is necessary.