A hybrid empirical and parametric approach for managing ecosystem complexity: Water quality in Lake Geneva under nonstationary futures.

Severe deterioration of water quality in lakes, characterized by overabundance of algae and declining dissolved oxygen in the deep lake (DOB), was one of the ecological crises of the 20th century. Even with large reductions in phosphorus loading, termed "reoligotrophication," DOB and chlorophyll (CHL) have often not returned to their expected pre-20th-century levels. Concurrently, management of lake health has been confounded by possible consequences of climate change, particularly since the effects of climate are not neatly separable from the effects of eutrophication. Here, using Lake Geneva as an iconic example, we demonstrate a complementary alternative to parametric models for understanding and managing lake systems. This involves establishing an empirically-driven baseline that uses supervised machine learning to capture the changing interdependencies among biogeochemical variables and then combining the empirical model with a more conventional equation-based model of lake physics to predict DOB over decadal time-scales. The hybrid model not only leads to substantially better forecasts, but also to a more actionable description of the emergent rates and processes (biogeochemical, ecological, etc.) that drive water quality. Notably, the hybrid model suggests that the impact of a moderate 3°C air temperature increase on water quality would be on the same order as the eutrophication of the previous century. The study provides a template and a practical path forward to cope with shifts in ecology to manage environmental systems for non-analogue futures.

Temperatures and hypolimnetic oxygen in German lakes: Observations, future trends and adaptation potential.

We investigated trends in temperature, stratification, and hypolimnetic oxygen concentration of German lakes under climate change using observational data and hydrodynamic modelling. Observations from 46 lakes revealed that annually averaged surface temperatures increased by + 0.5 °C between 1990 and 2020 while bottom temperatures remained almost constant. Modelling of 12 lakes predicted further increases in surface temperatures by 0.3 °C/decade until the year 2099 in the most pessimistic emission scenario RCP 8.5 (RCP 4.5: + 0.18 °C/decade; RCP 2.6: + 0.04 °C/decade). Again, bottom temperatures increased much less while summer stratification extended by up to 38 days. Using a simplified oxygen model, we showed that hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations decreased by 0.7-1.9 mg L-1 in response to the extended stratification period. However, model runs assuming lower productivity (e. g. through nutrient reduction) resulted in increased oxygen concentrations even in the most pessimistic emission scenario. Our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on the oxygen budget of lakes can be efficiently mitigated by nutrient control.

Oxygen consumption in seasonally stratified lakes decreases only below a marginal phosphorus threshold.

Areal oxygen (O2) consumption in deeper layers of stratified lakes and reservoirs depends on the amount of settling organic matter. As phosphorus (P) limits primary production in most lakes, protective and remediation efforts often seek to reduce P input. However, lower P concentrations do not always lead to lower O2 consumption rates. This study used a large hydrochemical dataset to show that hypolimnetic O2 consumption rates in seasonally stratified European lakes remain consistently elevated within a narrow range (1.06 ± 0.08 g O2 m-2 d-1) as long as areal P supply (APS) exceeded 0.54 ± 0.06 g P m-2 during the productive season. APS consists of the sum of total P present in the productive top 15 m of the water column after winter mixing plus the load of total dissolved P imported during the stratified season, normalized to the lake area. Only when APS sank below this threshold, the areal hypolimnetic mineralization rate (AHM) decreased in proportion to APS. Sediment trap material showed increasing carbon:phosphorus (C:P) ratios in settling particulate matter when APS declined. This suggests that a decreasing P load results in lower P concentration but not necessarily in lower AHM rates because the phytoplankton community is able to maintain maximum biomass production by counteracting the decreasing P supply by a more efficient P utilization. In other words, in-lake organic matter production depends only on APS if the latter falls below the threshold of 0.54 g P m-2 and correspondingly, the atomic C:P ratio of the settling material exceeds ~155.