The typhoon-induced drying of the Maritime Continent.

The Maritime Continent plays a role in the global circulation pattern, due to the energy released by convective condensation over the region which influences the global atmospheric circulation. We demonstrate that tropical cyclones contribute to drying the Maritime Continent atmosphere, influencing the definition of the onset of the dry season. The process was investigated using observational data and reanalysis. Our findings were confirmed by numerical experiments using low- and high-resolution versions of the CMCC-CM2 General Circulation Model contributing to the HighResMIP CMIP6 effort.

Remote subsurface ocean temperature as a predictor of Atlantic hurricane activity.

Predicting North Atlantic hurricane activity months in advance is of great potential societal significance. The ocean temperature, both in terms of North Atlantic/tropical averages and upper ocean heat content, is demonstrated to be a significant predictor. To investigate the relationship between the thermal state of the Atlantic Ocean and the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), we use observed 1980-2015 TC records and a 1/4° resolution global ocean reanalysis. This paper highlights the nonlocal effect associated with eastern Atlantic Ocean temperature, via a reduction of wind shear, and provides additional predictive skill of TC activity, when considering subsurface temperature instead of sea surface temperature (SST) only. The most active TC seasons occur for lower than normal wind shear conditions over the main development region, which is also driven by reduced trade wind strength. A significant step toward operationally reliable TC activity predictions is gained after including upper ocean mean temperatures over the eastern Atlantic domain. Remote effects are found to provide potential skill of ACE up to 3 months in advance. These results indicate that consideration of the upper 40-m ocean average temperature improves upon a prediction of September Atlantic hurricane activity using only SST.

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble.

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities.

Extreme climatic events to intensify over the Lake Victoria Basin under global warming.

This paper presents an analysis of future precipitation patterns over the Lake Victoria Basin, East Africa, using bias-corrected CMIP6 model projections. A mean increase of about 5% in mean annual (ANN) and seasonal [March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), and October-December (OND)] precipitation climatology is expected over the domain by mid-century (2040-2069). The changes intensify towards the end of the century (2070-2099) with an increase in mean precipitation of about 16% (ANN), 10% (MAM), and 18% (OND) expected, relative to the 1985-2014 baseline period. Additionally, the mean daily precipitation intensity (SDII), the maximum 5-day precipitation values (RX5Day), and the heavy precipitation events-represented by the width of the right tail distribution of precipitation (99p-90p)-show an increase of 16%, 29%, and 47%, respectively, by the end of the century. The projected changes have a substantial implication for the region-which is already experiencing conflicts over water and water-related resources.

Thinning Can Reduce Losses in Carbon Use Efficiency and Carbon Stocks in Managed Forests Under Warmer Climate.

Forest carbon use efficiency (CUE, the ratio of net to gross primary productivity) represents the fraction of photosynthesis that is not used for plant respiration. Although important, it is often neglected in climate change impact analyses. Here we assess the potential impact of thinning on projected carbon cycle dynamics and implications for forest CUE and its components (i.e., gross and net primary productivity and plant respiration), as well as on forest biomass production. Using a detailed process-based forest ecosystem model forced by climate outputs of five Earth System Models under four representative climate scenarios, we investigate the sensitivity of the projected future changes in the autotrophic carbon budget of three representative European forests. We focus on changes in CUE and carbon stocks as a result of warming, rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, and forest thinning. Results show that autotrophic carbon sequestration decreases with forest development, and the decrease is faster with warming and in unthinned forests. This suggests that the combined impacts of climate change and changing CO2 concentrations lead the forests to grow faster, mature earlier, and also die younger. In addition, we show that under future climate conditions, forest thinning could mitigate the decrease in CUE, increase carbon allocation into more recalcitrant woody pools, and reduce physiological-climate-induced mortality risks. Altogether, our results show that thinning can improve the efficacy of forest-based mitigation strategies and should be carefully considered within a portfolio of mitigation options.

Global assessment of heat wave magnitudes from 1901 to 2010 and implications for the river discharge of the Alps.

Heat waves represent one of the most significant climatic stressors for ecosystems, economies and societies. A main topic of debate is whether they have increased or not in intensity and/or their duration due to the observed climate change. Firstly, this is because of the lack of reliable long-term daily temperature data at the global scale; secondly, because of the intermittent nature of such phenomena. Long datasets are required to produce a reliable and meaningful assessment. In this study, we provide a global estimate of heat wave magnitudes based on the three most appropriate datasets currently available, derived from models and observations (i.e. the 20th Century Reanalyses from NOAA and ECMWF), spanning the last century and before. The magnitude of the heat waves is calculated by means of the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId), taking into account both duration and amplitude. We compare the magnitude of the most severe heat waves occurred across different regions of the world and we discuss the decadal variability of the larger events since the 1850s. We concentrate our analysis from 1901 onwards, where all datasets overlap. Our results agree with other studies focusing on heat waves that have occurred in the recent decades, but using different data. In addition, we found that the percentage of global area covered by heat wave exceeding a given magnitude has increased almost three times, in the last decades, with respect to that measured in the early 20th century. Finally, we discuss the specific implications of the heat waves on the river runoff generated in the Alps, for which comparatively long datasets exist, affecting the water quality and availability in a significant portion of the European region in summer.

Observed shift towards earlier spring discharge in the main Alpine rivers.

In this study, we analyse the observed long-term discharge time-series of the Rhine, the Danube, the Rhone and the Po rivers. These rivers are characterised by different seasonal cycles reflecting the diverse climates and morphologies of the Alpine basins. However, despite the intensive and varied water management adopted in the four basins, we found common features in the trend and low-frequency variability of the spring discharge timings. All the discharge time-series display a tendency towards earlier spring peaks of more than two weeks per century. These results can be explained in terms of snowmelt, total precipitation (i.e. the sum of snowfall and rainfall) and rainfall variability. The relative importance of these factors might be different in each basin. However, we show that the change of seasonality of total precipitation plays a major role in the earlier spring runoff over most of the Alps.