Comparison of evaluation metrics of deep learning for imbalanced imaging data in osteoarthritis studies.

PURPOSE: To compare the evaluation metrics for deep learning methods that were developed using imbalanced imaging data in osteoarthritis studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study utilized 2996 sagittal intermediate-weighted fat-suppressed knee MRIs with MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score readings from 2467 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative study. We obtained probabilities of the presence of bone marrow lesions (BMLs) from MRIs in the testing dataset at the sub-region (15 sub-regions), compartment, and whole-knee levels based on the trained deep learning models. We compared different evaluation metrics (e.g., receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision-recall (PR) curves) in the testing dataset with various class ratios (presence of BMLs vs. absence of BMLs) at these three data levels to assess the model's performance. RESULTS: In a subregion with an extremely high imbalance ratio, the model achieved a ROC-AUC of 0.84, a PR-AUC of 0.10, a sensitivity of 0, and a specificity of 1. CONCLUSION: The commonly used ROC curve is not sufficiently informative, especially in the case of imbalanced data. We provide the following practical suggestions based on our data analysis: 1) ROC-AUC is recommended for balanced data, 2) PR-AUC should be used for moderately imbalanced data (i.e., when the proportion of the minor class is above 5% and less than 50%), and 3) for severely imbalanced data (i.e., when the proportion of the minor class is below 5%), it is not practical to apply a deep learning model, even with the application of techniques addressing imbalanced data issues.

Development and validation of risk stratification trees for incident slow gait speed in persons at high risk for knee osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Disability prevention strategies are more achievable before osteoarthritis disease drives impairment. It is critical to identify high-risk groups, for strategy implementation and trial eligibility. An established measure, gait speed is associated with disability and mortality. We sought to develop and validate risk stratification trees for incident slow gait in persons at high risk for knee osteoarthritis, feasible in community and clinical settings. METHODS: Osteoarthritis Initiative (derivation cohort) and Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (validation cohort) participants at high risk for knee osteoarthritis were included. Outcome was incident slow gait over up to 10-year follow-up. Derivation cohort classification and regression tree analysis identified predictors from easily assessed variables and developed risk stratification models, then applied to the validation cohort. Logistic regression compared risk group predictive values; area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) summarised discrimination ability. RESULTS: 1870 (derivation) and 1279 (validation) persons were included. The most parsimonious tree identified three risk groups, from stratification based on age and WOMAC Function. A 7-risk-group tree also included education, strenuous sport/recreational activity, obesity and depressive symptoms; outcome occurred in 11%, varying 0%-29 % (derivation) and 2%-23 % (validation) depending on risk group. AUCs were comparable in the two cohorts (7-risk-group tree, 0.75, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.78 (derivation); 0.72, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.76 (validation)). CONCLUSIONS: In persons at high risk for knee osteoarthritis, easily acquired data can be used to identify those at high risk of incident functional impairment. Outcome risk varied greatly depending on tree-based risk group membership. These trees can inform individual awareness of risk for impaired function and define eligibility for prevention trials.

Organizing seniors to protect the health safety net: the way forward.

Over the past century, the organized voice of seniors has been critical in building the U.S. health safety net. Since the 2016 election, that safety net, particularly the Medicaid program, is in jeopardy. As we have seen with the rise of the Tea Party, senior support for health care programs-even programs that they use in large numbers-cannot and should not be taken for granted. This article provides a brief history of senior advocacy and an overview of the current senior organizing landscape. It also identifies opportunities for building the transformational organizing of low-income seniors needed to defend against sustained attacks on critical programs. Several suggestions are made, drawn from years of work in philanthropy, advocacy, and campaigns, for strengthening the ability to organize seniors-particularly low-income seniors-into an effective political force advocating for Medicaid and other safety net programs.

Do Inactive Older Adults Who Increase Physical Activity Experience Less Disability: Evidence From the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is a leading risk factor for developing disability. Although randomized clinical trials have demonstrated improving physical activity can reduce this risk in older adults with arthritis, these studies did not specifically evaluate inactive adults. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship of changes in physical activity with disability changes among initially inactive adults with or at high risk of knee osteoarthritis from Osteoarthritis Initiative. METHODS: Inactive persons were identified at baseline based on the US Department of Health and Human Services classification (no [zero] 10-minute session of moderate-to-vigorous [MV] activity over 1 week) from objective accelerometer monitoring. Two years later, physical activity change status was classified as follows: (1) met Federal physical activity guidelines (≥150 MV minutes/week acquired in bouts ≥10 minutes), (2) insufficiently increased activity (some but <150 MV bout minutes/week), or (3) remained inactive. Disability at baseline and 2 years was assessed by Late Life Disability Instrument limitation and frequency scores. Multiple regression evaluated the relationship of physical activity change status with baseline-to-2-year changes in disability scores adjusting for socioeconomics, health factors, and baseline disability score. RESULTS: Increased physical activity showed a graded relationship with improved disability scores in Late Life Disability Instrument limitation (P < 0.001) and frequency scores (P = 0.027). While increasing MV activity to guideline levels showed the greatest reduction, even insufficiently increased physical activity was related to reduced disability. CONCLUSIONS: Findings support advice to increase MV physical activity to reduce disability among inactive adults with or at high risk of knee osteoarthritis, even when guidelines are not met.

Clinical significance of worsening versus stable preradiographic MRI lesions in a cohort study of persons at higher risk for knee osteoarthritis.

BACKGROUND: Whether preradiographic lesions in knees at risk for osteoarthritis are incidental versus disease is unclear. We hypothesised, in persons without but at higher risk for knee osteoarthritis, that: 12-48 month MRI lesion status worsening is associated with 12-48 month incident radiographic osteoarthritis (objective component of clinical definition of knee osteoarthritis) and 48-84 month persistent symptoms. METHODS: In 849 Osteoarthritis Initiative participants Kellgren/Lawrence (KL) 0 in both knees, we assessed cartilage damage, bone marrow lesions (BMLs), and menisci on 12 month (baseline) and 48 month MRIs. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between 12-48 month worsening versus stable status and outcome (12-48 month incident KL ≥1 and KL ≥2, and 48-84 month persistent symptoms defined as frequent symptoms or medication use most days of ≥1 month in past 12 month, at consecutive visits 48-84 months), adjusting for age, gender, body mass index (BMI), injury and surgery. RESULTS: Mean age was 59.6 (8.8), BMI 26.7 (4.2) and 55.9% were women. 12-48 month status worsening of cartilage damage, meniscal tear, meniscal extrusion, and BMLs was associated with 12-48 month incident radiographic outcomes, and worsening of cartilage damage and BMLs with 48-84 month persistent symptoms. There was a dose-response association for magnitude of worsening of cartilage damage, meniscal tear, meniscal extrusion, and BMLs and radiographic outcomes, and cartilage damage and BMLs and persistent symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: In persons at higher risk, worsening MRI lesion status was associated with concurrent incident radiographic osteoarthritis and subsequent persistent symptoms. These findings suggest that such lesions represent early osteoarthritis, and add support for a paradigm shift towards investigation of intervention effectiveness at this stage.

Comparison of radiographic joint space width and magnetic resonance imaging for prediction of knee replacement: A longitudinal case-control study from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether change in fixed-location measures of radiographic joint space width (JSW) and cartilage thickness by MRI predict knee replacement. METHODS: Knees replaced between 36 and 60 months' follow-up in the Osteoarthritis Initiative were each matched with one control by age, sex and radiographic status. Radiographic JSW was determined from fixed flexion radiographs and subregional femorotibial cartilage thickness from 3 T MRI. Changes between the annual visit before replacement (T0) and 2 years before T0 (T-2) were compared using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: One hundred and nineteen knees from 102 participants (55.5 % women; age 64.2 ± 8.7 [mean ± SD] years) were studied. Fixed-location JSW change at 22.5 % from medial to lateral differed more between replaced and control knees (case-control [cc] OR = 1.57; 95 % CI: 1.23-2.01) than minimum medial JSW change (ccOR = 1.38; 95 % CI: 1.11-1.71). Medial femorotibial cartilage loss displayed discrimination similar to minimum JSW, and central tibial cartilage loss similar to fixed-location JSW. Location-independent thinning and thickening scores were elevated prior to knee replacement. CONCLUSIONS: Discrimination of structural progression between knee pre-placement cases versus controls was stronger for fixed-location than minimum radiographic JSW. MRI displayed similar discrimination to radiography and suggested greater simultaneous cartilage thickening and loss prior to knee replacement. KEY POINTS: • Fixed-location JSW predicts surgical knee replacement more strongly than minimum JSW. • MRI predicts knee replacement with similar accuracy to radiographic JSW. • MRI reveals greater cartilage thinning and thickening prior to knee replacement.

Valgus malalignment is a risk factor for lateral knee osteoarthritis incidence and progression: findings from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study and the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To study the effect of valgus malalignment on knee osteoarthritis (OA) incidence and progression. METHODS: We measured the mechanical axis from long limb radiographs from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) and the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) to define limbs with valgus malalignment (mechanical axis of ≥1.1° valgus) and examined the effect of valgus alignment versus neutral alignment (neither varus nor valgus) on OA structural outcomes. Posteroanterior radiographs and knee magnetic resonance (MR) images were obtained at the time of the long limb radiograph and at followup examinations. Lateral progression was defined as an increase in joint space narrowing (on a semiquantitative scale) in knees with OA, and incidence was defined as new lateral narrowing in knees without radiographic OA. We defined lateral cartilage damage and progressive meniscal damage as increases in cartilage or meniscus scores at followup on the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score scale (for the MOST) or the Boston Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score scale (for the OAI). We used logistic regression with adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, and Kellgren/Lawrence grade, as well as generalized estimating equations, to evaluate the effect of valgus alignment versus neutral alignment on disease outcomes. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). RESULTS: We studied 5,053 knees (881 valgus) of subjects in the MOST cohort and 5,953 knees (1,358 valgus) of subjects in the OAI cohort. In both studies, all strata of valgus malalignment, including 1.1° to 3° valgus, were associated with an increased risk of lateral disease progression. In knees without radiographic OA, valgus alignment >3° was associated with incidence (e.g., in the MOST, adjusted OR 2.5 [95% CI 1.0-5.9]). Valgus alignment >3° was also associated with cartilage damage on MR imaging in knees without OA (e.g., in the OAI, adjusted OR 5.9 [95% CI 1.1-30.3]).We found a strong relationship of valgus malalignment with progressive lateral meniscal damage. CONCLUSION: Valgus malalignment increases the risk of knee OA radiographic progression and incidence as well as the risk of lateral cartilage damage. It may cause these effects, in part, by increasing the risk of meniscal damage.

The role of varus and valgus alignment in the initial development of knee cartilage damage by MRI: the MOST study.

OBJECTIVE: Varus and valgus alignment are associated with progression of knee osteoarthritis, but their role in incident disease is less certain. Radiographic measures of incident knee osteoarthritis may be capturing early progression rather than disease development. The authors tested the hypothesis: in knees with normal cartilage morphology by MRI, varus is associated with incident medial cartilage damage and valgus with incident lateral damage. METHODS: In MOST, a prospective study of persons at risk of or with knee osteoarthritis, baseline full-limb x-rays and baseline and 30-month MRI were acquired. In knees with normal baseline cartilage morphology in all tibiofemoral subregions, logistic regression was used with generalised estimating equations to examine the association between alignment and incident cartilage damage adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, laxity, meniscal tear and extrusion. RESULTS: Of 1881 knees, 293 from 256 persons met the criteria. Varus versus non-varus was associated with incident medial damage (adjusted OR 3.59, 95% CI 1.59 to 8.10), as was varus versus neutral, with evidence of a dose effect (adjusted OR 1.38/1° varus, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.59). The findings held even excluding knees with medial meniscal damage. Valgus was not associated with incident lateral damage. Varus and valgus were associated with a reduced risk of incident lateral and medial damage, respectively. CONCLUSION: In knees with normal cartilage morphology, varus was associated with incident cartilage damage in the medial compartment, and varus and valgus with a reduced risk of incident damage in the less loaded compartment. These results support that varus increases the risk of the initial development of knee osteoarthritis.

Knee confidence as it relates to physical function outcome in persons with or at high risk of knee osteoarthritis in the osteoarthritis initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether low knee confidence at baseline is associated with poor baseline-to-3-year physical function outcome in the Osteoarthritis Initiative. METHODS: Knee confidence was assessed using an item from the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score instrument. Physical function was assessed using self-report measures (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index [WOMAC] function score and Short Form 12 physical component scale) and performance-based measures (20-meter walk and chair stand test). Poor function outcome was defined as moving into a worse function group or remaining in the 2 worst function groups between baseline and 3 years. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the relationship between baseline knee confidence level and poor baseline-to-3-year function outcome, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: The sample included 3,975 men and women with or at high risk of developing osteoarthritis of the knee, of whom 37-53% had poor baseline-to-3-year function outcome. For both self-report measures, increasingly worse knee confidence was associated with a greater risk of poor function outcome, and trend tests supported a graded response (e.g., the adjusted odds ratios [95% confidence intervals] for the WOMAC function score for worsening confidence categories were 1.26 [1.07-1.49], 1.43 [1.16-1.77], and 2.05 [1.49-2.82], P for trend <0.0001). Similar associations between confidence and performance-based function outcome were observed, but statistical significance did not persist in adjusted analyses. Factors independently associated with poor function outcome for all 4 outcome measures were depressive symptoms, comorbidity, body mass index, and joint space narrowing. CONCLUSION: These findings indicate that worse knee confidence at baseline is independently associated with greater risk of poor function outcome by self-report measures, with evidence of a graded response; the relationship with performance measures is not significant in fully adjusted models.

The Association Between Severity of Radiographic Knee OA and Recurrent Falls in Middle and Older Aged Adults: The Osteoarthritis Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Knee osteoarthritis (KOA) is the most prevalent type of OA and a leading cause of disability in the United States. Falls are a major public health concern in older adults. Our aim was to examine how the severity of radiographic KOA affects recurrent falls in a cohort of middle-aged and older individuals enrolled in the Osteoarthritis Initiative. METHODS: About 3 972 participants, mean age of 63 years, 58% female were included. Participants were divided into 5 mutually exclusive groups based on their worst Kellgren-Lawrence grade of radiographic KOA from annual x-rays from baseline to 36 months. Generalized estimating equations for repeated logistic regression were used to model the association between KOA severity and the likelihood of recurrent falls (≥2 falls/year) over 5 years of follow-up (>36 to 96 months). RESULTS: Older adults (≥age 65) with KOA were at higher odds of recurrent falls in comparison to individuals without KOA in multivariate models (possible OA odds ratio [OR] = 2.22, 95% CI = 1.09-4.52; mild OA OR = 2.48, 95% CI = 1.34-4.62; unilateral moderate-severe OA OR = 2.84, 95% CI = 1.47-5.50; bilateral moderate-severe OA OR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.13-5.62). Middle-aged adults (aged 45-64) with KOA did not have increased odds of recurrent falls in comparison to those without KOA except for possible KOA (OR = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.01-2.78; KOA severity × Age interaction = 0.025). CONCLUSION: Older adults with radiographic evidence of KOA have an increased likelihood of experiencing recurrent falls in comparison to those without KOA independent of established risk factors. Our results suggest that fall prevention efforts should include older adults with all stages of KOA.

The Natural History of Knee Osteoarthritis Pain Experience and Risk Profiles.

The study aimed to characterize the natural history of the pain experience, concurrently considering intermittent and constant pain over 4 years, and determine baseline factors associated with unfavorable trajectories in individuals with chronic knee pain. The Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) is a prospective, observational study of people with or at higher risk for knee osteoarthritis. The Intermittent and Constant Osteoarthritis Pain (ICOAP) was assessed annually at 48-to-96-month OAI visits. Twenty-eight baseline sociodemographic, knee-specific, and health-related characteristics were assessed. Group-based dual-trajectory modeling identified pain experience patterns indicated by ICOAP intermittent and constant pain scores over 4 years. Multivariable multinomial logistic regression models determined baseline factors associated with membership in each dual-trajectory group. Four longitudinal pain experience patterns were identified (n = 3,584, mean age = 64.8 [standard deviation 9.0] years, BMI = 28.6 [5.0] kg/m2; 57.9% women). Group 1 (37.7%) had minimal intermittent and no constant pain; Group 2 (35.1%) had mild intermittent and no constant pain; Group 3 (18.5%) had mild intermittent and low-grade constant pain; and Group 4 (8.7%) had moderate intermittent and constant pain. Baseline widespread pain, knee stiffness, back pain, hip pain, ankle pain, obesity, depressive symptoms, more advanced radiographic disease, and analgesic use were each associated with an increased risk of membership in less favorable Groups 2, 3, and 4. These distinct courses of pain experience may be driven by different underlying pain mechanisms. The benchmarked ICOAP scores could be used to stratify patients and tailor management. Addressing and preventing the development of modifiable risks (eg, widespread pain and knee joint stiffness) may reduce the chance of belonging to unfavorable dual-trajectory groups. PERSPECTIVE: Concurrently tracking intermittent versus constant pain experience, group-based dual-trajectory modeling identified 4 distinct pain experience patterns over 4 years. The benchmarked ICOAP scores in these dual trajectories could aid in stratifying patients for tailored management strategies and intensity of care.

Ambulatory support moment contribution patterns and MRI-detected tibiofemoral and patellofemoral disease worsening in adults with knee osteoarthritis: A preliminary study.

We investigated whether baseline sagittal-plane ankle, knee, and hip contribution to the total support moment (TSM) are each associated with baseline-to-2-year tibiofemoral and patellofemoral tissue damage worsening in adults with knee osteoarthritis. Ambulatory lower-limb kinetics were captured and computed. TSM is the sum of ankle, knee, and hip extensor moments at each instant during gait. Ankle, knee, and hip contributions to TSM were computed as joint moments divided by TSM, expressed as percentages. Participants underwent MRI of both knees at baseline and 2 years later. Logistic regression models assessed associations of baseline ankle contribution to TSM with baseline-to-2-year cartilage damage and bone marrow lesion worsening, adjusted for age, sex, BMI, gait speed, disease severity, and pain. We used similar analytic approaches for knee and hip contributions to TSM. Sample included 391 knees from 204 persons (age[SD]: 64[10] years; 76.5% women). Greater ankle contribution may be associated with increased odds of tibiofemoral cartilage damage worsening (OR = 2.38; 95% CI: 1.02-5.57) and decreased odds of patellofemoral bone marrow lesion worsening (OR = 0.14; 95% CI: 0.03-0.73). The ORs for greater knee contribution were in the protective range for tibiofemoral compartment and in the deleterious range for patellofemoral. Greater hip contribution may be associated with increased odds of tibiofemoral worsening (OR = 2.71; 95% CI: 1.17-6.30). Greater ankle contribution to TSM may be associated with baseline-to-2-year tibiofemoral worsening, but patellofemoral tissue preservation. Conversely, greater knee contribution may be associated with patellofemoral worsening, but tibiofemoral preservation. Preliminary findings illustrate potential challenges in developing biomechanical interventions beneficial to both tibiofemoral and patellofemoral compartments.

Breaking the Law of Valgus: the surprising and unexplained prevalence of medial patellofemoral cartilage damage.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the prevalence of medial and lateral patellofemoral (PF) cartilage damage in three large osteoarthritis (OA) studies and determine the relationship of this damage to varus, neutral and valgus knee alignment. METHODS: In the Boston OA of the Knee, Framingham OA and Multicenter OA studies, MRIs were read for cartilage morphology at the medial and lateral patella and trochlea femoris using Whole-Organ MRI Scores (WORMS). WORMS scores ≥2 (any cartilage defect), ≥3 (areas of partial thickness loss), ≥4 (diffuse partial thickness loss) and ≥5 (extensive full thickness loss) were all variously considered as thresholds to identify damage that may indicate OA. Full-limb radiographs were measured for mechanical alignment, and varus (<-2°), neutral (-2° to 2°) and valgus (>2°) knees were identified. RESULTS: The prevalence of medial PF cartilage damage exceeded that of lateral damage in all three studies and according to nearly every threshold. Only among severely involved knees (WORMS ≥4 or ≥5) did the prevalence of lateral PF cartilage damage approximate that of medial damage. The high prevalence of medial PF damage persisted in all strata of knee alignment. Even among knees with valgus alignment, the prevalence of lateral PF cartilage damage equalled or surpassed that of medial PF damage only when the threshold was specific to severely involved knees. CONCLUSIONS: Medial PF cartilage damage is at least as prevalent within these older adult populations as lateral PF cartilage damage.

Physical activity levels and functional performance in the osteoarthritis initiative: a graded relationship.

OBJECTIVE: Physical activity improves function in adults with arthritis, but it is unknown if there is a graded relationship between physical activity and functional benefit. This study was undertaken to examine the cross-sectional and longitudinal relationship between self-reported physical activity and observed functional performance in adults with knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: The Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort included 2,589 patients with knee OA (2,301 with longitudinal followup data) who were ages 45-79 years at baseline. Prospective annual functional performance was assessed for 2 years using timed 20-meter walk tests. We used linear regression to estimate differences across physical activity quartiles in subsequent function (baseline and 1-year activity predicts 1-year and 2-year function, respectively) adjusted for demographic factors (age, sex, race/ethnicity, education level, and marital status) and health factors (OA severity, knee symptoms, knee pain, knee injury, body mass index, comorbidity, depression, smoking, alcohol use, and other joint pain). RESULTS: Increasing physical activity levels had a significant graded relationship to functional performance. Adults in physical activity quartile groups from least active to most active had an average gait speed of 4.0, 4.2, 4.3, and 4.5 feet/second, respectively, at baseline (P for trend<0.001) and 4.0, 4.2, 4.3, and 4.5 feet/second, respectively, after 1 year (P for trend<0.001); increasing trends remained significant after adjusting for covariates. Findings were similar within sex and age groups. CONCLUSION: These prospective data indicate a consistent graded relationship between physical activity level and better performance in adults with knee OA. These findings support guidelines that encourage patients with arthritis who cannot attain minimum recommended physical activity to be as active as possible.

Varus-valgus alignment: reduced risk of subsequent cartilage loss in the less loaded compartment.

OBJECTIVE: Varus-valgus alignment has been linked to subsequent progression of osteoarthritis (OA) within the mechanically stressed (medial for varus, lateral for valgus) tibiofemoral compartment. Cartilage data from the off-loaded compartment are sparse. The purpose of this study was to examine our hypotheses that neutral and valgus (versus varus) knees each have reduced odds of cartilage loss in the medial subregions and that neutral and varus (versus valgus) knees each have reduced odds of cartilage loss in the lateral subregions. METHODS: Patients with knee OA underwent knee magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and 2 years. The mean cartilage thickness was quantified within 5 tibial and 3 femoral subregions. We used logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to analyze the relationship between baseline alignment and subregional cartilage loss at 2 years, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, and disease severity. RESULTS: A reduced risk of cartilage loss in the medial subregions was associated with neutral (versus varus) alignment (external tibial, central femoral, external femoral) and with valgus (versus varus) alignment (central tibial, external tibial, central femoral, external femoral). A reduced risk of cartilage loss in the lateral subregions was associated with neutral (versus valgus) alignment (central tibial, internal tibial, posterior tibial) and with varus (versus valgus) alignment (central tibial, external tibial, posterior tibial, external femoral). CONCLUSION: Neutral and valgus alignment were each associated with a reduction in the risk of subsequent cartilage loss in certain medial subregions and neutral and varus alignment with a reduction in the risk of cartilage loss in certain lateral subregions. These results support load redistribution as an in vivo mechanism of the long-term alignment effects on cartilage loss in knee OA.

Objective physical activity measurement in the osteoarthritis initiative: Are guidelines being met?

OBJECTIVE: Osteoarthritis (OA) clinical practice guidelines identify a substantial therapeutic role for physical activity, but objective information about the physical activity of this population is lacking. The aim of this study was to objectively measure levels of physical activity in adults with knee OA and report the prevalence of meeting public health physical activity guidelines. METHODS: Cross-sectional accelerometry data from 1,111 adults with radiographic knee OA (49-84 years old) participating in the Osteoarthritis Initiative accelerometry monitoring ancillary study were assessed for meeting the aerobic component of the 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans (≥150 minutes/week moderate-to-vigorous-intensity activity lasting ≥10 minutes). Quantile regression was used to test median sex differences in physical activity levels. RESULTS: Aerobic physical activity guidelines were met by 12.9% of men and 7.7% of women with knee OA. A substantial proportion of men and women (40.1% and 56.5%, respectively) were inactive, having done no moderate-to-vigorous activity that lasted 10 minutes or more during the 7 days. Although men engaged in significantly more moderate-to-vigorous activity (average daily minutes 20.7 versus 12.3), they also spent more time in no or very-low-intensity activity than women (average daily minutes 608.2 versus 585.8). CONCLUSION: Despite substantial health benefits from physical activity, adults with knee OA were particularly inactive based on objective accelerometry monitoring. The proportions of men and women who met public health physical activity guidelines were substantially less than those previously reported based on self-reported activity in arthritis populations. These findings support intensified public health efforts to increase physical activity levels among people with knee OA.

Knee Confidence Trajectories Over Eight Years and Factors Associated With Poor Trajectories in Individuals With or at Risk for Knee Osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify distinct trajectories of lack of knee confidence over an 8-year follow-up period and to examine baseline factors associated with poor trajectories in individuals with or at risk for knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: The Osteoarthritis Initiative is a prospective cohort study of individuals with or at high risk for knee OA. Confidence in the knees was assessed within the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score instrument querying how much the individual is troubled by lack of confidence in his/her knee(s), rated as not-at-all (score = 0), mildly (score = 1), moderately (score = 2), severely (score = 3), and extremely (score = 4) troubled, reported annually from baseline to 96 months. Lack of knee confidence was defined as a score of ≥2. We used latent class models to identify subgroups that share similar underlying knee confidence trajectories over an 8-year period and multivariable multinomial logistic regression models to examine baseline factors associated with poor trajectories. RESULTS: Among 4,515 participants (mean ± SD age 61.2 ± 9.2 years, mean ± SD BMI 28.6 ± 4.8 kg/m2 ; 2,640 [58.5%] women), 4 distinct knee confidence trajectories were identified: persistently good (65.6%); declining (9.1%); poor, improving (13.9%); and persistently poor (11.4%). Baseline predictors associated with persistently poor confidence (reference: persistently good) were younger age, male sex, higher body mass index (BMI), depressive symptoms, more advanced radiographic disease, worse knee pain, weaker knee extensors, history of knee injury and surgery, and reported hip and/or ankle pain. CONCLUSION: Findings suggest the dynamic nature of self-reported knee confidence and that addressing modifiable factors (e.g., BMI, knee strength, depressive symptoms, and lower extremity pain) may improve its long-term course.

Longitudinal Relationship Between Tibiofemoral Contact Stress at Baseline and Worsening of Knee Pain Over 84 Months in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to determine whether tibiofemoral contact stress predicts risk for worsening knee pain over 84 ms in adults aged 50-79 yrs with or at elevated risk for knee osteoarthritis. DESIGN: Baseline tibiofemoral contact stress was estimated using discrete element analysis. Other baseline measures included weight, height, hip-knee-ankle alignment, Kellgren-Lawrence grade, and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain subscale. Logistic regression models assessed the association between baseline contact stress and 84-mo worsening of Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain subscale. RESULTS: Data from the dominant knee (72.6% Kellgren-Lawrence grade 0/1 and 27.4% Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2) of 208 participants (64.4% female, mean ± SD body mass index = 29.6 ± 5.1 kg/m 2 ) were analyzed. Baseline mean and peak contact stress were 3.3 ± 0.9 and 9.4 ± 4.3 MPa, respectively. Forty-seven knees met the criterion for worsening pain. The highest tertiles in comparison with the lowest tertiles of mean (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 2.47 [1.03-5.95], P = 0.04) and peak (2.49 [1.03-5.98], P = 0.04) contact stress were associated with worsening pain at 84 mos, after adjustment for age, sex, race, clinic site, and baseline pain. Post hoc sensitivity analyses including adjustment for body mass index and hip-knee-ankle alignment attenuated the effect. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that elevated tibiofemoral contact stress can predict the development of worsening of knee pain.

Subregional effects of meniscal tears on cartilage loss over 2 years in knee osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Meniscal tears have been linked to knee osteoarthritis progression, presumably by impaired load attenuation. How meniscal tears affect osteoarthritis is unclear; subregional examination may help to elucidate whether the impact is local. This study examined the association between a tear within a specific meniscal segment and subsequent 2-year cartilage loss in subregions that the torn segment overlies. METHODS: Participants with knee osteoarthritis underwent bilateral knee MRI at baseline and 2 years. Mean cartilage thickness within each subregion was quantified. Logistic regression with generalised estimating equations were used to analyse the relationship between baseline meniscal tear in each segment and baseline to 2-year cartilage loss in each subregion, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, tear in the other two segments and extrusion. RESULTS: 261 knees were studied in 159 individuals. Medial meniscal body tear was associated with cartilage loss in external subregions and in central and anterior tibial subregions, and posterior horn tear specifically with posterior tibial subregion loss; these relationships were independent of tears in the other segments and persisted in tibial subregions after adjustment for extrusion. Lateral meniscal body and posterior horn tear were also associated with cartilage loss in underlying subregions but not after adjustment for extrusion. Cartilage loss in the internal subregions, not covered by the menisci, was not associated with meniscal tear in any segment. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that the detrimental effect of meniscal tears is not spatially uniform across the tibial and femoral cartilage surfaces and that some of the effect is experienced locally.