Contrasting principal stratum and hypothetical strategy estimands in multi-period crossover trials with incomplete data.

Complete case analyses of complete crossover designs provide an opportunity to make comparisons based on patients who can tolerate all treatments. It is argued that this provides a means of estimating a principal stratum strategy estimand, something which is difficult to do in parallel group trials. While some trial users will consider this a relevant aim, others may be interested in hypothetical strategy estimands, that is, the effect that would be found if all patients completed the trial. Whether these estimands differ importantly is a question of interest to the different users of the trial results. This paper derives the difference between principal stratum strategy and hypothetical strategy estimands, where the former is estimated by a complete-case analysis of the crossover design, and a model for the dropout process is assumed. Complete crossover designs, that is, those where all treatments appear in all sequences, and which compare t treatments over p periods with respect to a continuous outcome are considered. Numerical results are presented for Williams designs with four and six periods. Results from a trial of obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea (TOMADO) are also used for illustration. The results demonstrate that the percentage difference between the estimands is modest, exceeding 5% only when the trial has been severely affected by dropouts or if the within-subject correlation is low.

Impact of changes to the interscreening interval and faecal immunochemical test threshold in the national bowel cancer screening programme in England: results from the FIT pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: The NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) faces endoscopy capacity challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic and plans to lower the screening starting age. This may necessitate modifying the interscreening interval or threshold. METHODS: We analysed data from the English Faecal Immunochemical Testing (FIT) pilot, comprising 27,238 individuals aged 59-75, screened for colorectal cancer (CRC) using FIT. We estimated screening sensitivity to CRC, adenomas, advanced adenomas (AA) and mean sojourn time of each pathology by faecal haemoglobin (f-Hb) thresholds, then predicted the detection of these abnormalities by interscreening interval and f-Hb threshold. RESULTS: Current 2-yearly screening with a f-Hb threshold of 120 µg/g was estimated to generate 16,092 colonoscopies, prevent 186 CRCs, detect 1142 CRCs, 7086 adenomas and 4259 AAs per 100,000 screened over 15 years. A higher threshold at 180 µg/g would reduce required colonoscopies to 11,500, prevent 131 CRCs, detect 1077 CRCs, 4961 adenomas and 3184 AAs. A longer interscreening interval of 3 years would reduce required colonoscopies to 10,283, prevent 126 and detect 909 CRCs, 4796 adenomas and 2986 AAs. CONCLUSION: Increasing the f-Hb threshold was estimated to be more efficient than increasing the interscreening interval regarding overall colonoscopies per screen-benefited cancer. Increasing the interval was more efficient regarding colonoscopies per cancer prevented.

Mediation of the total effect of cystic fibrosis-related diabetes on mortality: A UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry cohort study.

AIM: To investigate whether the effect of cystic fibrosis-related diabetes (CFRD) on the composite outcome of mortality or transplant could act through lung function, pulmonary exacerbations and/or nutritional status. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of adult cystic fibrosis (CF) patients who had not been diagnosed with CFRD were identified from the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry (n = 2750). Rate of death or transplant was compared between patients who did and did not develop CFRD (with insulin use) during follow-up using Poisson regression, separately by sex. Causal mediation methods were used to investigate whether lung function, pulmonary exacerbations and nutritional status lie on the causal pathway between insulin-treated CFRD and mortality/transplant. RESULTS: At all ages, the mortality/transplant rate was higher in both men and women diagnosed with CFRD. Pulmonary exacerbations were the strongest mediator of the effect of CFRD on mortality/transplant, with an estimated 15% [95% CI: 7%, 28%] of the effect at 2 years post-CFRD diagnosis attributed to exacerbations, growing to 24% [95% CI: 9%, 46%] at 4 years post-diagnosis. Neither lung function nor nutritional status were found to be significant mediators of this effect. Estimates were similar but with wider confidence intervals in a cohort that additionally included people with CFRD but not using insulin. CONCLUSION: There is evidence that pulmonary exacerbations mediate the effect of CFRD on mortality but, as they are estimated to mediate less than one-quarter of the total effect, the mechanism through which CFRD influences survival may involve other factors.

One-year mortality of colorectal cancer patients: development and validation of a prediction model using linked national electronic data.

BACKGROUND: The existing literature does not provide a prediction model for mortality of all colorectal cancer patients using contemporary national hospital data. We developed and validated such a model to predict colorectal cancer death within 90, 180 and 365 days after diagnosis. METHODS: Cohort study using linked national cancer and death records. The development population included 27,480 patients diagnosed in England in 2015. The test populations were diagnosed in England in 2016 (n = 26,411) and Wales in 2015-2016 (n = 3814). Predictors were age, gender, socioeconomic status, referral source, performance status, tumour site, TNM stage and treatment intent. Cox regression models were assessed using Brier scores, c-indices and calibration plots. RESULTS: In the development population, 7.4, 11.7 and 17.9% of patients died from colorectal cancer within 90, 180 and 365 days after diagnosis. T4 versus T1 tumour stage had the largest adjusted association with the outcome (HR 4.67; 95% CI: 3.59-6.09). C-indices were 0.873-0.890 (England) and 0.856-0.873 (Wales) in the test populations, indicating excellent separation of predicted risks by outcome status. Models were generally well calibrated. CONCLUSIONS: The model was valid for predicting short-term colorectal cancer mortality. It can provide personalised information to support clinical practice and research.

Effect of rituximab on a salivary gland ultrasound score in primary Sjögren's syndrome: results of the TRACTISS randomised double-blind multicentre substudy.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the effects of rituximab versus placebo on salivary gland ultrasound (SGUS) in primary Sjögren's syndrome (PSS) in a multicentre, multiobserver phase III trial substudy. METHODS: Subjects consenting to SGUS were randomised to rituximab or placebo given at weeks 0, 2, 24 and 26, and scanned at baseline and weeks 16 and 48. Sonographers completed a 0-11 total ultrasound score (TUS) comprising domains of echogenicity, homogeneity, glandular definition, glands involved and hypoechoic foci size. Baseline-adjusted TUS values were analysed over time, modelling change from baseline at each time point. For each TUS domain, we fitted a repeated-measures logistic regression model to model the odds of a response in the rituximab arm (≥1-point improvement) as a function of the baseline score, age category, disease duration and time point. RESULTS: 52 patients (n=26 rituximab and n=26 placebo) from nine centres completed baseline and one or more follow-up visits. Estimated between-group differences (rituximab-placebo) in baseline-adjusted TUS were -1.2 (95% CI -2.1 to -0.3; P=0.0099) and -1.2 (95% CI -2.0 to -0.5; P=0.0023) at weeks 16 and 48. Glandular definition improved in the rituximab arm with an OR of 6.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 43.0; P=0.043) at week 16 and 10.3 (95% CI 1.0 to 105.9; P=0.050) at week 48. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated statistically significant improvement in TUS after rituximab compared with placebo. This encourages further research into both B cell depletion therapies in PSS and SGUS as an imaging biomarker. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: 65360827, 2010-021430-64; Results.

Does the "Weekend Effect" for Postoperative Mortality Stand Up to Scrutiny? Association for Cardiothoracic Anesthesia and Critical Care Cohort Study of 110,728 Cardiac Surgical Patients.

OBJECTIVE: Ongoing debate focuses on whether patients admitted to the hospital on weekends have higher mortality than those admitted on weekdays. Whether this apparent "weekend effect" reflects differing patient risk, care quality differences, or inadequate adjustment for risk during analysis remains unclear. This study aimed to examine the existence of a "weekend effect" for risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality after cardiac surgery. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected cardiac registry data. SETTING: Ten UK specialist cardiac centers. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 110,728 cases, undertaken by 127 consultant surgeons and 190 consultant anesthetists between April 2002 and March 2012. INTERVENTIONS: Major risk-stratified cardiac surgical operations. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Crude in-hospital mortality rate was 3.1%. Multilevel multivariable models were employed to estimate the effect of operative day on in-hospital mortality, adjusting for center, surgeon, anesthetist, patient risk, and procedure priority. Weekend elective cases had significantly lower mortality risk compared to Monday elective cases (odds ratio [OR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42, 0.96) following risk adjustment by the logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and procedure priority; differences between weekend and Monday for urgent and emergency/salvage cases were not significant (OR 1.12, 95% CI 0.73, 1.72, and 1.07, 95% CI 0.79, 1.45 respectively). Considering only the logistic EuroSCORE but not procedure priority yielded 29% higher odds of death for weekend cases compared to Monday operations (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.08, 1.54). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that undergoing cardiac surgery during the weekend does not affect negatively patient survival, and highlights the importance of comprehensive risk adjustment to avoid detecting spurious "weekend effects."

Sex-related differences in left ventricular remodeling in severe aortic stenosis and reverse remodeling after aortic valve replacement: A cardiovascular magnetic resonance study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac adaptation to aortic stenosis (AS) appears to differ according to sex, but reverse remodeling after aortic valve replacement has not been extensively described. The aim of the study was to determine using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging whether any sex-related differences exist in AS in terms of left ventricular (LV) remodeling, myocardial fibrosis, and reverse remodeling after valve replacement. METHODS: One hundred patients (men, n = 60) with severe AS undergoing either transcatheter or surgical aortic valve replacement underwent cardiac magnetic resonance scans at baseline and 6 months after valve replacement. RESULTS: Despite similar baseline comorbidity and severity of AS, women had a lower indexed LV mass than did men (65.3 ± 18.4 vs 81.5 ± 21.3 g/m(2), P < .001) and a smaller indexed LV end-diastolic volume (87.3 ± 17.5 vs 101.2 ± 28.6 mL/m(2), P = .002) with a similar LV ejection fraction (58.6% ± 10.2% vs 54.8% ± 12.9%, P = .178). Total myocardial fibrosis mass was similar between sexes (2.3 ± 4.1 vs 1.3 ± 1.1 g, P = .714), albeit with a differing distribution according to sex. After aortic valve replacement, men had more absolute LV mass regression than did women (18.3 ± 10.6 vs 12.7 ± 8.8 g/m(2), P = .007). When expressed as a percentage reduction of baseline indexed LV mass, mass regression was similar between the sexes (men 21.7% ± 10.1% vs women 18.4% ± 11.0%, P = .121). There was no sex-related difference in postprocedural LV ejection fraction or aortic regurgitation. Sex was not found to be a predictor of LV reverse remodeling on multiple regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: There are significant differences in the way that male and female hearts adapt to AS. Six months after aortic valve replacement, there are no sex-related differences in reverse remodeling, but superior reverse remodeling in men as a result of their more adverse remodeling profile at baseline.

The relationship between three-dimensional knee MRI bone shape and total knee replacement-a case control study: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: There is growing understanding of the importance of bone in OA. Our aim was to determine the relationship between 3D MRI bone shape and total knee replacement (TKR). METHODS: A nested case-control study within the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort identified case knees with confirmed TKR for OA and controls that were matched using propensity scores. Active appearance modelling quantification of the bone shape of all knee bones identified vectors between knees having or not having OA. Vectors were scaled such that -1 and +1 represented the mean non-OA and mean OA shapes. RESULTS: Compared to controls (n = 310), TKR cases (n = 310) had a more positive mean baseline 3D bone shape vector, indicating more advanced structural OA, for the femur [mean 0.98 vs -0.11; difference (95% CI) 1.10 (0.88, 1.31)], tibia [mean 0.86 vs -0.07; difference (95% CI) 0.94 (0.72, 1.16)] and patella [mean 0.95 vs 0.03; difference (95% CI) 0.92 (0.65, 1.20)]. Odds ratios (95% CI) for TKR per normalized unit of 3D bone shape vector for the femur, tibia and patella were: 1.85 (1.59, 2.16), 1.64 (1.42, 1.89) and 1.36 (1.22, 1.50), respectively, all P < 0.001. After including Kellgren-Lawrence grade in a multivariable analysis, only the femur 3D shape vector remained significantly associated with TKR [odds ratio 1.24 (1.02, 1.51)]. CONCLUSION: 3D bone shape was associated with the endpoint of this study, TKR, with femoral shape being most associated. This study contributes to the validation of quantitative MRI bone biomarkers for OA structure-modification trials.

Effect of Care Guided by Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance, Myocardial Perfusion Scintigraphy, or NICE Guidelines on Subsequent Unnecessary Angiography Rates: The CE-MARC 2 Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Among patients with suspected coronary heart disease (CHD), rates of invasive angiography are considered too high. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that among patients with suspected CHD, cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR)-guided care is superior to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines-directed care and myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS)-guided care in reducing unnecessary angiography. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Multicenter, 3-parallel group, randomized clinical trial using a pragmatic comparative effectiveness design. From 6 UK hospitals, 1202 symptomatic patients with suspected CHD and a CHD pretest likelihood of 10% to 90% were recruited. First randomization was November 23, 2012; last 12-month follow-up was March 12, 2016. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomly assigned (240:481:481) to management according to UK NICE guidelines or to guided care based on the results of CMR or MPS testing. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was protocol-defined unnecessary coronary angiography (normal fractional flow reserve >0.8 or quantitative coronary angiography [QCA] showing no percentage diameter stenosis ≥70% in 1 view or ≥50% in 2 orthogonal views in all coronary vessels ≥2.5 mm diameter) within 12 months. Secondary end points included positive angiography, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), and procedural complications. RESULTS: Among 1202 symptomatic patients (mean age, 56.3 years [SD, 9.0]; women, 564 [46.9%] ; mean CHD pretest likelihood, 49.5% [SD, 23.8%]), number of patients with invasive coronary angiography after 12 months was 102 in the NICE guidelines group (42.5% [95% CI, 36.2%-49.0%])], 85 in the CMR group (17.7% [95% CI, 14.4%-21.4%]); and 78 in the MPS group (16.2% [95% CI, 13.0%-19.8%]). Study-defined unnecessary angiography occurred in 69 (28.8%) in the NICE guidelines group, 36 (7.5%) in the CMR group, and 34 (7.1%) in the MPS group; adjusted odds ratio of unnecessary angiography: CMR group vs NICE guidelines group, 0.21 (95% CI, 0.12-0.34, P < .001); CMR group vs the MPS group, 1.27 (95% CI, 0.79-2.03, P = .32). Positive angiography proportions were 12.1% (95% CI, 8.2%-16.9%; 29/240 patients) for the NICE guidelines group, 9.8% (95% CI, 7.3%-12.8%; 47/481 patients) for the CMR group, and 8.7% (95% CI, 6.4%-11.6%; 42/481 patients) for the MPS group. A MACE was reported at a minimum of 12 months in 1.7% of patients in the NICE guidelines group, 2.5% in the CMR group, and 2.5% in the MPS group (adjusted hazard ratios: CMR group vs NICE guidelines group, 1.37 [95% CI, 0.52-3.57]; CMR group vs MPS group, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.46-1.95]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In patients with suspected angina, investigation by CMR resulted in a lower probability of unnecessary angiography within 12 months than NICE guideline-directed care, with no statistically significant difference between CMR and MPS strategies. There were no statistically significant differences in MACE rates. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01664858.

Efficacy and cost of video-assisted thoracoscopic partial pleurectomy versus talc pleurodesis in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma (MesoVATS): an open-label, randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Malignant pleural mesothelioma incidence continues to rise, with few available evidence-based therapeutic options. Results of previous non-randomised studies suggested that video-assisted thoracoscopic partial pleurectomy (VAT-PP) might improve symptom control and survival. We aimed to compare efficacy in terms of overall survival, and cost, of VAT-PP and talc pleurodesis in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma. METHODS: We undertook an open-label, parallel-group, randomised, controlled trial in patients aged 18 years or older with any subtype of confirmed or suspected mesothelioma with pleural effusion, recruited from 12 hospitals in the UK. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either VAT-PP or talc pleurodesis by computer-generated random numbers, stratified by European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer risk category (high vs low). The primary outcome was overall survival at 1 year, analysed by intention to treat (all patients randomly assigned to a treatment group with a final diagnosis of mesothelioma). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00821860. FINDINGS: Between Oct 24, 2003, and Jan 24, 2012, we randomly assigned 196 patients, of whom 175 (88 assigned to talc pleurodesis, 87 assigned to VAT-PP) had confirmed mesothelioma. Overall survival at 1 year was 52% (95% CI 41-62) in the VAT-PP group and 57% (46-66) in the talc pleurodesis group (hazard ratio 1·04 [95% CI 0·76-1·42]; p=0·81). Surgical complications were significantly more common after VAT-PP than after talc pleurodesis, occurring in 24 (31%) of 78 patients who completed VAT-PP versus ten (14%) of 73 patients who completed talc pleurodesis (p=0·019), as were respiratory complications (19 [24%] vs 11 [15%]; p=0·22) and air-leak beyond 10 days (five [6%] vs one [1%]; p=0·21), although not significantly so. Median hospital stay was longer at 7 days (IQR 5-11) in patients who received VAT-PP compared with 3 days (2-5) for those who received talc pleurodesis (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: VAT-PP is not recommended to improve overall survival in patients with pleural effusion due to malignant pleural mesothelioma, and talc pleurodesis might be preferable considering the fewer complications and shorter hospital stay associated with this treatment. FUNDING: BUPA Foundation.

Survival extrapolation in the presence of cause specific hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

Bayesian regression discontinuity designs: incorporating clinical knowledge in the causal analysis of primary care data.

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the causal effects of a treatment by exploiting naturally occurring treatment rules. It can be applied in any context where a particular treatment or intervention is administered according to a pre-specified rule linked to a continuous variable. Such thresholds are common in primary care drug prescription where the RD design can be used to estimate the causal effect of medication in the general population. Such results can then be contrasted to those obtained from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and inform prescription policy and guidelines based on a more realistic and less expensive context. In this paper, we focus on statins, a class of cholesterol-lowering drugs, however, the methodology can be applied to many other drugs provided these are prescribed in accordance to pre-determined guidelines. Current guidelines in the UK state that statins should be prescribed to patients with 10-year cardiovascular disease risk scores in excess of 20%. If we consider patients whose risk scores are close to the 20% risk score threshold, we find that there is an element of random variation in both the risk score itself and its measurement. We can therefore consider the threshold as a randomising device that assigns statin prescription to individuals just above the threshold and withholds it from those just below. Thus, we are effectively replicating the conditions of an RCT in the area around the threshold, removing or at least mitigating confounding. We frame the RD design in the language of conditional independence, which clarifies the assumptions necessary to apply an RD design to data, and which makes the links with instrumental variables clear. We also have context-specific knowledge about the expected sizes of the effects of statin prescription and are thus able to incorporate this into Bayesian models by formulating informative priors on our causal parameters.

State selection in Markov models for panel data with application to psoriatic arthritis.

Markov multistate models in continuous-time are commonly used to understand the progression over time of disease or the effect of treatments and covariates on patient outcomes. The states in multistate models are related to categorisations of the disease status, but there is often uncertainty about the number of categories to use and how to define them. Many categorisations, and therefore multistate models with different states, may be possible. Different multistate models can show differences in the effects of covariates or in the time to events, such as death, hospitalisation, or disease progression. Furthermore, different categorisations contain different quantities of information, so that the corresponding likelihoods are on different scales, and standard, likelihood-based model comparison is not applicable. We adapt a recently developed modification of Akaike's criterion, and a cross-validatory criterion, to compare the predictive ability of multistate models on the information which they share. All the models we consider are fitted to data consisting of observations of the process at arbitrary times, often called 'panel' data. We develop an implementation of these criteria through Hidden Markov models and apply them to the comparison of multistate models for the Health Assessment Questionnaire score in psoriatic arthritis. This procedure is straightforward to implement in the R package 'msm'.

An exploratory cohort study comparing prothrombin complex concentrate and fresh frozen plasma for the treatment of coagulopathy after complex cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Administration of coagulation factor concentrates to treat bleeding after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass might be a strategy for reducing allogeneic blood transfusions, particularly for patients treated with warfarin preoperatively. We performed an exploratory analysis on whether the use of prothrombin complex concentrate (PCC) is safe and effective compared with fresh frozen plasma (FFP) to treat coagulopathy after pulmonary endarterectomy surgery with deep hypothermic circulatory arrest. METHODS: Consecutive adult patients who underwent pulmonary endarterectomy surgery between January 2010 and September 2012 and received PCC or FFP to treat coagulopathy were studied. Blood loss during the first 12 hours of admission to the intensive care unit and patient outcomes were compared with propensity score adjustment. RESULTS: Three hundred fifty-one patients underwent pulmonary endarterectomy surgery, all of whom had warfarin discontinued for up to 5 days before surgery; bleeding complications requiring transfusion of blood products were observed in 108 (31%) patients. Of those, 55 received only FFP and 45 received only PCC, whereas 8 received both. Blood loss was significantly greater in the FFP group compared with the PCC group after 12 hours (median [interquartile range], 650 mL [325-1075] vs 277 mL [175-608], P = 0.008). However, there was no difference in the frequency of patients receiving a red blood cell transfusion (number [percent], 44 [80%] vs 34 [76%], P = 0.594) or in the number of units of red blood cells transfused (median [interquartile range], 2 [1-4] vs 3 [1-5] units, P = 0.181). The final propensity score included preoperative international normalized ratio, postoperative activated partial thromboplastin time, and postoperative platelet count. After inclusion of the propensity score in the regression analyses, there were no differences between patients receiving only PCC and patients receiving only FFP in the need for renal replacement therapy (odds ratio [OR] 2.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.51-11.20, P = 0.27), 30-day-mortality (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.03-3.36, P = 0.35), intracranial hemorrhage (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.14-3.89, P = 0.71), hospital length of stay (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% CI 0.50-1.19, P = 0.24), or duration of intensive care stay (hazard ratio 0.91, 95% CI 0.59-1.40, P = 0.66). CONCLUSIONS: This retrospective analysis suggests that PCC may be an alternative to FFP in patients previously treated with warfarin who are coagulopathic after major cardiac surgery. Randomized controlled studies powered to evaluate efficacy and important postoperative outcomes for patients receiving PCC versus FFP for coagulopathic bleeding after cardiopulmonary bypass are warranted.

Impact of donor mismatches at individual HLA-A, -B, -C, -DR, and -DQ loci on the development of HLA-specific antibodies in patients listed for repeat renal transplantation.

We have analyzed the relationship between donor mismatches at each HLA locus and development of HLA locus-specific antibodies in patients listed for repeat transplantation. HLA antibody screening was undertaken using single-antigen beads in 131 kidney transplant recipients returning to the transplant waiting list following first graft failure. The number of HLA mismatches and the calculated reaction frequency of antibody reactivity against 10,000 consecutive deceased organ donors were determined for each HLA locus. Two-thirds of patients awaiting repeat transplantation were sensitized (calculated reaction frequency over 15%) and half were highly sensitized (calculated reaction frequency of 85% and greater). Antibody levels peaked after re-listing for repeat transplantation, were independent of graft nephrectomy and were associated with length of time on the waiting list (odds ratio 8.4) and with maintenance on dual immunosuppression (odds ratio 0.2). Sensitization was independently associated with increasing number of donor HLA mismatches (odds ratio 1.4). All mismatched HLA loci contributed to the development of HLA locus-specific antibodies (HLA-A: odds ratio 3.2, HLA-B: odds ratio 3.4, HLA-C: odds ratio 2.5, HLA-DRB1: odds ratio 3.5, HLA-DRB3/4/5: odds ratio 3.9, and HLA-DQ: odds ratio 3.0 (all significant)). Thus, the risk of allosensitization following failure of a first renal transplant increases incrementally with the number of mismatches at all HLA loci assessed. Maintenance of re-listed patients on dual immunosuppression was associated with a reduced risk of sensitization.

Cost effectiveness of endosonography versus surgical staging in potentially resectable lung cancer: a health economics analysis of the ASTER trial from a European perspective.

In the ASTER study, mediastinal staging was more accurate for patients randomised to combined endobronchial and endoscopic ultrasound, followed by surgical staging if endoscopy was negative, versus surgical staging alone. Here, we report survival, quality of life and cost effectiveness up to 6 months, for the UK, The Netherlands and Belgium, separately. Survival in the two arms of the study was similar. In all three countries, the endosonography strategy had slightly higher quality-adjusted life years over 6 months, and was cheaper. Therefore, based on clinical accuracy and cost effectiveness, we conclude that mediastinal staging should commence with endosonography.

A crossover randomised controlled trial of oral mandibular advancement devices for obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea (TOMADO).

RATIONALE: Mandibular advancement devices (MADs) are used to treat obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea syndrome (OSAHS) but evidence is lacking regarding their clinical and cost-effectiveness in less severe disease. OBJECTIVES: To compare clinical- and cost-effectiveness of a range of MADs against no treatment in mild to moderate OSAHS. MEASUREMENTS AND METHODS: This open-label, randomised, controlled, crossover trial was undertaken at a UK sleep centre. Adults with Apnoea-Hypopnoea Index (AHI) 5-<30/h and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score ≥9 underwent 6 weeks of treatment with three non-adjustable MADs: self-moulded (SleepPro 1; SP1); semi-bespoke (SleepPro 2; SP2); fully-bespoke MAD (bMAD); and 4 weeks no treatment. Primary outcome was AHI scored by a polysomnographer blinded to treatment. Secondary outcomes included ESS, quality of life, resource use and cost. MAIN RESULTS: 90 patients were randomised and 83 were analysed. All devices reduced AHI compared with no treatment by 26% (95% CI 11% to 38%, p=0.001) for SP1, 33% (95% CI 24% to 41%) for SP2 and 36% (95% CI 24% to 45%, p<0.001) for bMAD. ESS was 1.51 (95% CI 0.73 to 2.29, p<0.001, SP1) to 2.37 (95% CI 1.53 to 3.22, p<0.001, bMAD) lower than no treatment (p<0.001 for all). Compliance was lower for SP1, which was the least preferred treatment at trial exit. All devices were cost-effective compared with no treatment at a £20,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold. SP2 was the most cost-effective up to £39,800/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Non-adjustable MADs achieve clinically important improvements in mild to moderate OSAHS and are cost-effective. Of those trialled, the semi-bespoke MAD is an appropriate first choice. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN02309506.

Health benefits and cost effectiveness of endoscopic and nonendoscopic cytosponge screening for Barrett's esophagus.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We developed a model to compare the health benefits and cost effectiveness of screening for Barrett's esophagus by either Cytosponge™ or by conventional endoscopy vs no screening, and to estimate their abilities to reduce mortality from esophageal adenocarcinoma. METHODS: We used microsimulation modeling of a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old men in the United Kingdom with histories of gastroesophageal reflux disease symptoms, assuming the prevalence of Barrett's esophagus to be 8%. Participants were invited to undergo screening by endoscopy or Cytosponge (invitation acceptance rates of 23% and 45%, respectively), and outcomes were compared with those from men who underwent no screening. We estimated the number of incident esophageal adenocarcinoma cases prevented and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of the different strategies. Patients found to have high-grade dysplasia or intramucosal cancer received endotherapy. Model inputs included data on disease progression, test accuracy, post-treatment status, and surveillance protocols. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per year. Supplementary and sensitivity analyses comprised esophagectomy management of high-grade dysplasia or intramucosal cancer, screening by ultrathin nasal endoscopy, and different assumptions of uptake of screening invitations for either strategy. RESULTS: We estimated that compared with no screening, Cytosponge screening followed by treatment of patients with dysplasia or intramucosal cancer costs an additional $240 (95% credible interval, $196-$320) per screening participant and results in a mean gain of 0.015 (95% credible interval, -0.001 to 0.029) QALYs and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $15.7 thousand (K) per QALY. The respective values for endoscopy were $299 ($261-$367), 0.013 (0.003-0.023) QALYs, and $22.2K. Screening by the Cytosponge followed by treatment of patients with dysplasia or intramucosal cancer would reduce the number of cases of incident symptomatic esophageal adenocarcinoma by 19%, compared with 17% for screening by endoscopy, although this greater benefit for Cytosponge depends on more patients accepting screening by Cytosponge compared with screening by endoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: In a microsimulation model, screening 50-year-old men with symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease by Cytosponge is cost effective and would reduce mortality from esophageal adenocarcinoma compared with no screening.

The 'Switch' study protocol: a randomised-controlled trial of switching to an alternative tumour-necrosis factor (TNF)-inhibitor drug or abatacept or rituximab in patients with rheumatoid arthritis who have failed an initial TNF-inhibitor drug.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) is one of the most common autoimmune diseases, affecting approximately 1% of the UK adult population. Patients suffer considerable pain, stiffness and swelling and can sustain various degrees of joint destruction, deformity, and significant functional decline. In addition, the economic burden due to hospitalisation and loss of employment is considerable, with over 50% of patients being work-disabled within 10 years of diagnosis. Despite several biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARD) now available, there is a lack of data to guide biologic sequencing. In the UK, second-line biologic treatment is restricted to a single option, rituximab. The aim of the SWITCH trial is to establish whether an alternative-mechanism-TNF-inhibitor (TNFi) or abatacept are as effective as rituximab in patients with RA who have failed an initial TNFi drug. METHODS/DESIGN: SWITCH is a pragmatic, phase IV, multi-centre, parallel-group design, open-label, randomised, controlled trial (RCT) comparing alternative-mechanism-TNFi and abatacept with rituximab in patients with RA who have failed an initial TNFi drug. Participants are randomised in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive alternative mechanism TNFi, (monoclonal antibodies: infliximab, adalimumab, certolizumab or golimumab or the receptor fusion protein, etanercept), abatacept or rituximab during the interventional phase (from randomisation up to week 48). Participants are subsequently followed up to a maximum of 96 weeks, which constitutes the observational phase. The primary objective is to establish whether an alternative-mechanism-TNFi or abatacept are non-inferior to rituximab in terms of disease response at 24 weeks post randomisation. The secondary objectives include the comparison of alternative-mechanism-TNFi and abatacept to rituximab in terms of disease response, quality of life, toxicity, safety and structural and bone density outcomes over a 12-month period (48 weeks) and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of switching patients to alternative active therapies compared to current practice. DISCUSSION: SWITCH is a well-designed trial in this therapeutic area that aims to develop a rational treatment algorithm to potentially inform personalised treatment regimens (as opposed to switching all patients to only one available (and possibly unsuccessful) therapy), which may lead to long-term improved patient outcomes and gains in population health. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UKCRN Portfolio ID: 12343; ISRCTN89222125 ; NCT01295151.

Improving risk models for patients having emergency bowel cancer surgery using linked electronic health records: a national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Life-saving emergency major resection of colorectal cancer (CRC) is a high-risk procedure. Accurate prediction of postoperative mortality for patients undergoing this procedure is essential for both healthcare performance monitoring and preoperative risk assessment. Risk-adjustment models for CRC patients often include patient and tumour characteristics, widely available in cancer registries and audits. The authors investigated to what extent inclusion of additional physiological and surgical measures, available through linkage or additional data collection, improves accuracy of risk models. METHODS: Linked, routinely-collected data on patients undergoing emergency CRC surgery in England between December 2016 and November 2019 were used to develop a risk model for 90-day mortality. Backwards selection identified a 'selected model' of physiological and surgical measures in addition to patient and tumour characteristics. Model performance was assessed compared to a 'basic model' including only patient and tumour characteristics. Missing data was multiply imputed. RESULTS: Eight hundred forty-six of 10 578 (8.0%) patients died within 90 days of surgery. The selected model included seven preoperative physiological and surgical measures (pulse rate, systolic blood pressure, breathlessness, sodium, urea, albumin, and predicted peritoneal soiling), in addition to the 10 patient and tumour characteristics in the basic model (calendar year of surgery, age, sex, ASA grade, TNM T stage, TNM N stage, TNM M stage, cancer site, number of comorbidities, and emergency admission). The selected model had considerably better discrimination compared to the basic model (C-statistic: 0.824 versus 0.783, respectively). CONCLUSION: Linkage of disease-specific and treatment-specific datasets allowed the inclusion of physiological and surgical measures in a risk model alongside patient and tumour characteristics, which improves the accuracy of the prediction of the mortality risk for CRC patients having emergency surgery. This improvement will allow more accurate performance monitoring of healthcare providers and enhance clinical care planning.