RESUMO
This paper takes a novel approach for forecasting the risk of disease emergence by combining risk management, signal processing and econometrics to develop a new forecasting approach. We propose quantifying risk using the Value at Risk criterion and then propose a two staged model based on Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis and Quantile Regression (MSSA-QR model). The proposed risk measure (PLVaR) and forecasting model (MSSA-QR) is used to forecast the worst cases of waterborne disease outbreaks in 22 European and North American countries based on socio-economic and environmental indicators. The results show that the proposed method perfectly forecasts the worst case scenario for less common waterborne diseases whilst the forecasting of more common diseases requires more socio-economic and environmental indicators.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Previsões/métodos , Doenças Transmitidas pela Água , Indicadores Ambientais , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , América do Norte , Gestão de Riscos , Processamento de Sinais Assistido por Computador , Fatores SocioeconômicosRESUMO
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the scholarly footprint of ChatGPT, an AI language model, using bibliometric and scientometric methods. The study zooms in on the early outbreak phase from when ChatGPT was launched in November 2022 to early June 2023. It aims to understand the evolution of research output, citation patterns, collaborative networks, application domains, and future research directions related to ChatGPT. By retrieving data from the Scopus database, 533 relevant articles were identified for analysis. The findings reveal the prominent publication venues, influential authors, and countries contributing to ChatGPT research. Collaborative networks among researchers and institutions are visualized, highlighting patterns of co-authorship. The application domains of ChatGPT, such as customer support and content generation, are examined. Moreover, the study identifies emerging keywords and potential research areas for future exploration. The methodology employed includes data extraction, bibliometric analysis using various indicators, and visualization techniques such as Sankey diagrams. The analysis provides valuable insights into ChatGPT's early footprint in academia and offers researchers guidance for further advancements. This study stimulates discussions, collaborations, and innovations to enhance ChatGPT's capabilities and impact across domains.
RESUMO
This application note investigates the causal relationship between oil price and tourist arrivals to further explain the impact of oil price volatility on tourism-related economic activities. The analysis itself considers the time domain, frequency domain and information theory domain perspectives. Data relating to US and nine European countries are exploited in this paper with causality tests which include time domain, frequency domain, and Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM). The CCM approach is nonparametric and therefore not restricted by assumptions. We contribute to existing research through the successful and introductory application of an advanced method, and via the uncovering of significant causal links from oil prices to tourist arrivals.
RESUMO
Signal extraction and analysis is of great importance, not only in fields such as economics and meteorology, but also in genetics and even biomedicine. There exists a range of parametric and nonparametric techniques which can perform signal extractions. However, the aim of this paper is to define a new approach for optimising signal extraction from bicoid gene expression profile. Having studied both parametric and nonparametric signal extraction techniques, we identified the lack of specific criteria enabling users to select the optimal signal extraction parameters. Exploiting the expression profile of bicoid gene, which is a maternal segmentation coordinate gene found in Drosophila melanogaster, we introduce a new approach for optimising the signal extraction using a nonparametric technique. The underlying criteria are based on the distribution of the residual, more specifically its skewness.
Assuntos
Drosophila melanogaster , Proteínas de Homeodomínio , Modelos Teóricos , Processamento de Sinais Assistido por Computador , Transativadores , Transcriptoma , Animais , Proteínas de DrosophilaRESUMO
The maternal segmentation coordinate gene bicoid plays a significant role during Drosophila embryogenesis. The gradient of Bicoid, the protein encoded by this gene, determines most aspects of head and thorax development. This paper seeks to explore the applicability of a variety of signal processing techniques at extracting bicoid expression signal, and whether these methods can outperform the current model. We evaluate the use of six different powerful and widely-used models representing both parametric and nonparametric signal processing techniques to determine the most efficient method for signal extraction in bicoid. The results are evaluated using both real and simulated data. Our findings show that the Singular Spectrum Analysis technique proposed in this paper outperforms the synthesis diffusion degradation model for filtering the noisy protein profile of bicoid whilst the exponential smoothing technique was found to be the next best alternative followed by the autoregressive integrated moving average.
Assuntos
Simulação por Computador , Drosophila melanogaster/embriologia , Proteínas de Homeodomínio/metabolismo , Processamento de Sinais Assistido por Computador , Transativadores/metabolismo , Animais , Proteínas de Drosophila , Drosophila melanogaster/metabolismo , Feminino , Proteínas de Homeodomínio/genética , Razão Sinal-Ruído , Transativadores/genéticaRESUMO
Along with the increasing availability of large databases under the purview of National Statistical Institutes, the application of data mining techniques to official statistics is now a hot topic that is far more important at present than it was ever before. Presented in this article is a thorough review of published work to date on the application of data mining in official statistics, and on identification of the techniques that have been explored. In addition, the importance of data mining to official statistics is flagged and a summary of the challenges that have hindered its development over the course of the last two decades is presented.