The Association Between Beta-blocker and Renin-Angiotensin System Inhibitor Use After Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction Hospitalization and Outcomes in Older Patients.

INTRODUCTION: Beta-blockers (BB) and renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASi) are foundational for the treatment of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). However, given the increased risk of side effects in older patients, uncertainty remains as to whether, on net, older patients benefit as much as the younger patients studied in trials. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry linked with Medicare data, overlap propensity weighted Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association between BB and RASi use at hospital discharge and 30-day and 1-year outcomes among patients with HFrEF. Among the 48,711 patients (aged ≥65 years) hospitalized with HFrEF, there were significant associations between BB and/or RASi use at discharge and lower rates of 30-day and 1-year mortality, including those over age 85 (30-day hazard ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.45-0.70; 1-year hazard ratio 0.69, 95% confidence interval 0.61-0.78). In addition, the magnitude of benefit associated with BB and/or RASi use after discharge did not decrease with advancing age. Even among the oldest patients, those over age 85, with hypotension, renal insufficiency or frailty, BB and/or RASi use at discharge was still associated with lower 1-year mortality or readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Among older patients hospitalized with HFrEF, BB and/or RASi use at discharge is associated with lower rates of 30-day and 1-year mortality across all age groups and the magnitude of this benefit does not seem to decrease with advancing age. These data suggest that, absent a clinical contraindication, BB and RASi should be considered in all patients hospitalized with HFrEF before or at hospital discharge, regardless of age.

Advance Care Planning and Treatment Intensity Before Death Among Black, Hispanic, and White Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Black and Hispanic people are more likely to contract COVID-19, require hospitalization, and die than White people due to differences in exposures, comorbidity risk, and healthcare access. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of race and ethnicity with treatment decisions and intensity for patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis of manually abstracted electronic medical records. PATIENTS: 7,997 patients (62% non-Hispanic White, 16% non-Black Hispanic, and 23% Black) hospitalized for COVID-19 at 135 community hospitals between March and June 2020 MAIN MEASURES: Advance care planning (ACP), do not resuscitate (DNR) orders, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation (MV), and in-hospital mortality. Among decedents, we classified the mode of death based on treatment intensity and code status as treatment limitation (no MV/DNR), treatment withdrawal (MV/DNR), maximal life support (MV/no DNR), or other (no MV/no DNR). KEY RESULTS: Adjusted in-hospital mortality was similar between White (8%) and Black patients (9%, OR=1.1, 95% CI=0.9-1.4, p=0.254), and lower among Hispanic patients (6%, OR=0.7, 95% CI=0.6-1.0, p=0.032). Black and Hispanic patients were significantly more likely to be treated in the ICU (White 23%, Hispanic 27%, Black 28%) and to receive mechanical ventilation (White 12%, Hispanic 17%, Black 16%). The groups had similar rates of ACP (White 12%, Hispanic 12%, Black 11%), but Black and Hispanic patients were less likely to have a DNR order (White 13%, Hispanic 8%, Black 7%). Among decedents, there were significant differences in mode of death by race/ethnicity (treatment limitation: White 39%, Hispanic 17% (p=0.001), Black 18% (p<0.0001); treatment withdrawal: White 26%, Hispanic 43% (p=0.002), Black 28% (p=0.542); and maximal life support: White 21%, Hispanic 26% (p=0.308), Black 36% (p<0.0001)). CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalized Black and Hispanic COVID-19 patients received greater treatment intensity than White patients. This may have simultaneously mitigated disparities in in-hospital mortality while increasing burdensome treatment near death.

Modeling peer effect modification by network strength: The diffusion of implantable cardioverter defibrillators in the US hospital network.

We develop methodology that allows peer effects (also referred to as social influence and contagion) to be modified by the structural importance of the focal actor's position in the network. The methodology is first developed for a single peer effect and then extended to simultaneously model multiple peer-effects and their modifications by the structural importance of the focal actor. This work is motivated by the diffusion of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) in patients with congestive heart failure across a cardiovascular disease patient-sharing network of United States hospitals. We apply the general methodology to estimate peer effects for the adoption of capability to implant ICDs, the number of ICD implants performed by hospitals that are capable, and the number of patients referred to other hospitals by noncapable hospitals. Applying our novel methodology to study ICD diffusion across hospitals, we find evidence that exposure to ICD-capable peer hospitals is strongly associated with the chance a hospital becomes ICD-capable and that the direction and magnitude of the association is extensively modified by the strength of that hospital's position in the network, even after controlling for effects of geography. Therefore, interhospital networks, rather than geography per se, may explain key patterns of regional variations in healthcare utilization.

Assessing Variation in Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator Therapy Guideline Adherence With Physician and Hospital Patient-sharing Networks.

BACKGROUND: Implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) therapy is used for primary prevention of death among people with heart failure, and new evidence in 2005 on its effectiveness changed practice guidelines in the United States. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to examine how the connectedness of physicians and hospitals, measured using network analysis, relates to guideline-consistent ICD implantation. RESEARCH DESIGN: We constructed physician and hospital networks for cardiovascular disease. Physicians were linked if they shared cardiovascular disease patients; these links were aggregated by hospital affiliation to construct a hospital network. SUBJECTS: Medicare beneficiaries who underwent ICD therapy for primary prevention from 2007 to 2011. MEASURES: The clinical outcome of interest was guideline-consistent ICD implantation, calculated using the National Cardiovascular Data Registry. The exposure variables of interest were the network measures of the ICD surgeon, the referring hospital, and the hospital where the ICD surgery occurred. RESULTS: We focused on patients who were referred between hospitals for ICD implantation because they were more likely influenced by the hospital network (n=28,179). Patients were less likely to meet guidelines if their referring hospital had more connections to other hospitals (OR, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.96) and more likely to meet guidelines if their ICD surgery hospital had more connections (OR, 1.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-2.64). The ICD surgeon's network measures were not associated with guideline-consistent implantation. CONCLUSIONS: Associations between the hospital network measures and guideline adherence suggests new approaches to better disseminate clinical guidelines across health systems.

The relationship of regional hemoglobin A1c testing and amputation rate among patients with diabetes.

Objective The risk of leg amputation among patients with diabetes has declined over the past decade, while use of preventative measures-such as hemoglobin A1c monitoring-has increased. However, the relationship between hemoglobin A1c testing and amputation risk remains unclear. Methods We examined annual rates of hemoglobin A1c testing and major leg amputation among Medicare patients with diabetes from 2003 to 2012 across 306 hospital referral regions. We created linear regression models to study associations between hemoglobin A1c testing and lower extremity amputation. Results From 2003 to 2012, the proportion of patients who received hemoglobin A1c testing increased 10% (74% to 84%), while their rate of lower extremity amputation decreased 50% (430 to 232/100,000 beneficiaries). Regional hemoglobin A1c testing weakly correlated with crude amputation rate in both years (2003 R = -0.20, 2012 R = -0.21), and further weakened with adjustment for age, sex, and disability status (2003 R = -0.11, 2012 R = -0.17). In a multivariable model of 2012 amputation rates, hemoglobin A1c testing was not a significant predictor. Conclusion Lower extremity amputation among patients with diabetes nearly halved over the past decade but only weakly correlated with hemoglobin A1c testing throughout the study period. Better metrics are needed to understand the relationship between preventative care and amputation.

Hemoglobin A1c Testing and Amputation Rates in Black, Hispanic, and White Medicare Patients.

BACKGROUND: Major (above-knee or below-knee) amputation is a complication of diabetes and is seen more common among black and Hispanic patients. While amputation rates have declined for patients with diabetes in the last decade, it remains unknown if these improvements have equitably extended across racial groups and if measures of diabetic care, such as hemoglobin A1c testing, are associated with these improvements. We set out to characterize secular changes in amputation rates among black, Hispanic, and white patients, and to determine associations between hemoglobin A1c testing and amputation risk. METHODS: We identified 11,942,840 Medicare patients (55% female) with diabetes over the age of 65 years between 2002 and 2012 and followed them for a mean of 6.6 years. Of these, 86% were white, 11.5% were black, and 2.5% were Hispanic. We recorded the occurrence of major amputation and hemoglobin A1c testing during this time period and studied secular changes in amputation rate by race (black, Hispanic, and white). Finally, we examined associations between amputation risk and hemoglobin A1c testing. We measured both the presence of any testing and testing consistency using 3 categories: poor consistency (hemoglobin A1c testing in 0-50% of years), medium consistency (testing in 50-90% of years), and high consistency (testing in >90% of the years in the cohort). RESULTS: Between 2002 and 2012, the average major lower-extremity amputation rate in diabetic Medicare patients was 1.78 per 1,000 per year for black patients, 1.15 per 1,000 per year for Hispanic patients, and 0.56 per 1,000 per year for white patients (P < 0.001). Over the study period, the incidence of major amputation in Medicare patients with diabetes declined by 54%, from 1.15 per 1,000 in 2002 to 0.53 per 1,000 in 2012 (rate ratio = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.51-0.54). The reduction in amputation rate was similar across racial groups: 52% for black patients, 61% for Hispanic patients, and 55% for white patients. In multivariable analysis adjusting for patient characteristics, including race, any use of hemoglobin A1c testing was associated with a 15% decline in amputation risk (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.83-0.87; P < 0.001). High consistency hemoglobin A1c testing was associated with a 39% decline in amputation (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.59-0.62; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Although more frequent among racial minorities, major lower-extremity amputation rates have declined similarly across black, Hispanic, and white patients over the last decade. Hemoglobin A1c testing, particularly the consistency of testing over time, may be an effective component metric of longitudinal quality measures toward limiting amputation in all races.

The burden of health care costs for patients with dementia in the last 5 years of life.

BACKGROUND: Common diseases, particularly dementia, have large social costs for the U.S. population. However, less is known about the end-of-life costs of specific diseases and the associated financial risk for individual households. OBJECTIVE: To examine social costs and financial risks faced by Medicare beneficiaries 5 years before death. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. SETTING: The HRS (Health and Retirement Study). PARTICIPANTS: Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, aged 70 years or older, who died between 2005 and 2010 (n = 1702), stratified into 4 groups: persons with a high probability of dementia or those who died because of heart disease, cancer, or other causes. MEASUREMENTS: Total social costs and their components, including Medicare, Medicaid, private insurance, out-of-pocket spending, and informal care, measured over the last 5 years of life; and out-of-pocket spending as a proportion of household wealth. RESULTS: Average total cost per decedent with dementia ($287 038) was significantly greater than that of those who died of heart disease ($175 136), cancer ($173 383), or other causes ($197 286) (P < 0.001). Although Medicare expenditures were similar across groups, average out-of-pocket spending for patients with dementia ($61 522) was 81% higher than that for patients without dementia ($34 068); a similar pattern held for informal care. Out-of-pocket spending for the dementia group (median, $36 919) represented 32% of wealth measured 5 years before death compared with 11% for the nondementia group (P < 0.001). This proportion was greater for black persons (84%), persons with less than a high school education (48%), and unmarried or widowed women (58%). LIMITATION: Imputed Medicaid, private insurance, and informal care costs. CONCLUSION: Health care expenditures among persons with dementia were substantially larger than those for other diseases, and many of the expenses were uncovered (uninsured). This places a large financial burden on families, and these burdens are particularly pronounced among the demographic groups that are least prepared for financial risk. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute on Aging.

Prescription opioid use among disabled Medicare beneficiaries: intensity, trends, and regional variation.

BACKGROUND: Prescription opioid use and overdose deaths are increasing in the United States. Among disabled Medicare beneficiaries under the age of 65, the rise in musculoskeletal conditions as qualifying diagnoses suggests that opioid analgesic use may be common and increasing, raising safety concerns. METHODS: From a 40% random-sample Medicare denominator, we identified fee-for-service beneficiaries under the age of 65 and created annual enrollment cohorts from 2007 to 2011 (6.4 million person-years). We obtained adjusted, annual opioid use measures: any use, chronic use (≥ 6 prescriptions), intensity of use [daily morphine equivalent dose (MED)], and opioid prescribers per user. Geographic variation was studied across Hospital Referral Regions. RESULTS: Most measures peaked in 2010. The adjusted proportion with any opioid use was 43.9% in 2007, 44.7% in 2010, and 43.7% in 2011. The proportion with chronic use rose from 21.4% in 2007 to 23.1% in 2011. Among chronic users: mean MED peaked at 81.3 mg in 2010, declining to 77.4 mg in 2011; in 2011, 19.8% received ≥ 100 mg MED; 10.4% received ≥ 200 mg. In 2011, Hospital Referral Region-level measures varied broadly (5th-95th percentile): any use: 33.0%-58.6%, chronic use: 13.9%-36.6%; among chronic users, mean MED: 45 mg-125 mg; mean annual opioid prescribers: 2.4-3.7. CONCLUSIONS: Among these beneficiaries, opioid use was common. Although intensity stabilized, the population using opioids chronically grew. Variation shows a lack of a standardized approach and reveals regions with mean MED at levels associated with overdose risk. Future work should assess outcomes, chronic use predictors, and policies balancing pain control and safety.

The role of comorbidities, medications, and social determinants of health in understanding urban-rural outcome differences among patients with heart failure.

PURPOSE: There is now a 20% disparity in all-cause, excess deaths between urban and rural areas, much of which is driven by disparities in cardiovascular death. We sought to explain the sources of these disparities for Medicare beneficiaries with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). METHODS: Using a sample of Medicare Parts A, B, and D, we created a cohort of 389,528 fee-for-service beneficiaries with at least 1 heart failure hospitalization from 2008 to 2017. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality after discharge; 1-year mortality, readmissions, and return emergency room (ER) admissions were secondary outcomes. We used hierarchical, logistic regression modeling to determine the contribution of comorbidities, guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT), and social determinants of health (SDOH) to outcomes. RESULTS: Thirty-day mortality rates after hospital discharge were 6.3% in rural areas compared to 5.7% in urban regions (P < .001); after adjusting for patient health and GDMT receipt, the 30-day mortality odds ratio for rural residence was 1.201 (95% CI 1.164-1.239). Adding the SDOH measure reduced the odds ratio somewhat (1.140, 95% CI 1.103-1.178) but a gap remained. Readmission rates in rural areas were consistently lower for all model specifications, while ER admissions were consistently higher. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with HFrEF, living in a rural area is associated with an increased risk of death and return ER visits within 30 days of discharge from HF hospitalization. Differences in SDOH appear to partially explain mortality differences but the remaining gap may be the consequence of rural-urban differences in HF treatment.

Association between physician supply, local practice norms, and outpatient visit rates.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable regional variation in Medicare outpatient visit rates; such variations may be the consequence of patient health, race/ethnicity differences, patient preferences, or physician supply and beliefs about the efficacy of frequently scheduled visits. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to test associations between varying regional Medicare outpatient visit rates and beneficiaries' health, race/ethnicity, preferences, and physician practice norms and supply. METHODS: We used Medicare claims from 2006 and 2007 and data from national surveys of 3 different groups in 2005-Medicare beneficiaries, cardiologists, and primary care physicians. Regression analysis tested explanations for outpatient visit rates: patient health (self-reported and hierarchical condition category score), self-reported race/ethnicity, preferences for care, and local physician practice norms and supply in beneficiaries' Hospital Referral Regions (HRRs) of residence. RESULTS: Beneficiaries in the highest quintile of the hierarchical condition category scores experienced 4.99 more visits than those in the lowest. Beneficiaries who were black experienced 2.14 fewer visits than others with similar health and preferences. Higher care-seeking preferences were marginally significantly associated with more visits, whereas education and poverty were insignificant. HRRs with high physician supply and high-frequency practice norms were associated with 2.04 additional visits per year, whereas HRRs with high supply but low-frequency norms were associated with 1.45 additional visits. Adjusting for all individual beneficiary covariates explained <20% of the original associations between visit rates and physician supply and practice norms. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare beneficiaries' health status, race, and preferences help explain individual office visit frequency; in particular, African-American patients appear to experience lower access to care. Yet, these factors explain a small fraction of the observed regional differences associated with physician supply and beliefs about the appropriate frequency of office visits.

Out-of-pocket spending in the last five years of life.

BACKGROUND: A key objective of the Medicare program is to reduce risk of financial catastrophe due to out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures. Yet little is known about cumulative financial risks arising from out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures faced by older adults, particularly near the end of life. DESIGN: Using the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS) cohort, we conducted retrospective analyses of Medicare beneficiaries' total out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures over the last 5 years of life. PARTICIPANTS: We identified HRS decedents between 2002 and 2008; defined a 5 year study period using each subject's date of death; and excluded those without Medicare coverage at the beginning of this period (n = 3,209). MAIN MEASURES: We examined total out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures in the last 5 years of life and expenditures as a percentage of baseline household assets. We then stratified results by marital status and cause of death. All measurements were adjusted for inflation to 2008 US dollars. RESULTS: Average out-of-pocket expenditures in the 5 years prior to death were $38,688 (95 % Confidence Interval $36,868, $40,508) for individuals, and $51,030 (95 % CI $47,649, $54,412) for couples in which one spouse dies. Spending was highly skewed, with the median and 90th percentile equal to $22,885 and $89,106, respectively, for individuals, and $39,759 and $94,823, respectively, for couples. Overall, 25 % of subjects' expenditures exceeded baseline total household assets, and 43 % of subjects' spending surpassed their non-housing assets. Among those survived by a spouse, 10 % exceeded total baseline assets and 24 % exceeded non-housing assets. By cause of death, average spending ranged from $31,069 for gastrointestinal disease to $66,155 for Alzheimer's disease. CONCLUSION: Despite Medicare coverage, elderly households face considerable financial risk from out-of-pocket healthcare expenses at the end of life. Disease-related differences in this risk complicate efforts to anticipate or plan for health-related expenditures in the last 5 years of life.

The diffusion of health care fraud: A bipartite network analysis.

Many studies have examined the diffusion of health care innovation but less is known about the diffusion of health care fraud. In this paper, we consider the diffusion of potentially fraudulent Medicare home health care billing in the United States during 2002-16, with a focus on the 21 hospital referral regions (HRRs) covered by local Department of Justice (DOJ) anti-fraud "strike force" offices. We hypothesize that patient-sharing across home health care agencies (HHAs) provides a mechanism for the rapid diffusion of fraudulent strategies. We measure such activity using a novel bipartite mixture (or BMIX) network index, which captures patient sharing across multiple agencies and thus conveys more information about the diffusion process than conventional unipartite network measures. Using a complete population of fee-for-service Medicare claims data, we first find a remarkable increase in home health care activity between 2002 and 2009 in many regions targeted by the DOJ; average billing per Medicare enrollee in McAllen TX and Miami increased by $2127 and $2422 compared to just an average $289 increase in other HRRs not targeted by the DOJ. Second, we establish that the HRR-level BMIX (but not other network measures) was a strong predictor of above-average home health care expenditures across HRRs. Third, within HRRs, agencies sharing more patients with other agencies were predicted to increase billing. Finally, the initial 2002 BMIX index was a strong predictor of subsequent changes in HRR-level home health billing during 2002-9. These results highlight the importance of bipartite network structure in diffusion and in infection and contagion models more generally.

Association Between Opening a Palliative Care Unit and Hospital Care for Patients With Serious Illness.

Background: Palliative care units (PCUs) are devoted to intensive management of symptoms and other palliative care needs. We examined the association between opening a PCU and acute care processes at a single U.S. academic medical center. Methods: We retrospectively compared acute care processes for seriously ill patients admitted before and after the opening of a PCU at a single academic medical center. Outcomes included rates of change in code status to do-not-resuscitate (DNR) and comfort measures only (CMO) status, and time to DNR and CMO. We calculated unadjusted and adjusted rates and used logistic regression to assess interaction between care period and palliative care consultation. Results: There were 16,611 patients in the pre-PCU period and 18,305 patients in the post-PCU period. The post-PCU cohort was slightly older, with a higher Charlson index (p < 0.001 for both). Post-PCU, unadjusted rates of DNR and CMO increased from 16.4% to 18.3% (p < 0.001) and 9.3% to 11.5% (p < 0.001), respectively. Post-PCU, median time to DNR was unchanged (0 days), and time to CMO decreased from 6 to 5 days. The adjusted odds ratio was 1.08 (p = 0.01) for DNR and 1.19 (p < 0.001) for CMO. Significant interaction between care period and palliative care consultation for DNR (p = 0.04) and CMO (p = 0.01) suggests an important role for palliative care engagement. Conclusions: The opening of a PCU at a single center was associated with increased rates of DNR and CMO status for seriously ill patients.

Hospital quality and the cost of inpatient surgery in the United States.

CONTEXT: Payers, policy makers, and professional organizations have launched a variety of initiatives aimed at improving hospital quality with inpatient surgery. Despite their obvious benefits for patients, the likely impact of these efforts on health care costs is uncertain. In this context, we examined relationships between hospital outcomes and expenditures in the US Medicare population. METHODS: Using the 100% national claims files, we identified all US hospitals performing coronary artery bypass graft, total hip replacement, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, or colectomy procedures between 2005 and 2007. For each procedure, we ranked hospitals by their risk- and reliability-adjusted outcomes (complication and mortality rates, respectively) and sorted them into quintiles. We then examined relationships between hospital outcomes and risk-adjusted, 30-day episode payments. RESULTS: There was a strong, positive correlation between hospital complication rates and episode payments for all procedures. With coronary artery bypass graft, for example, hospitals in the highest complication quintile had average payments that were $5353 per patient higher than at hospitals in the lowest quintile ($46,024 vs $40,671, P < 0.001). Payments to hospitals with high complication rates were also higher for colectomy ($2719 per patient), abdominal aortic aneurysm repair ($5279), and hip replacement ($2436). Higher episode payments at lower-quality hospitals were attributable in large part to higher payments for the index hospitalization, although 30-day readmissions, physician services, and postdischarge ancillary care also contributed. Despite the strong association between hospital complication rates and payments, hospital mortality was not associated with expenditures. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare payments around episodes of inpatient surgery are substantially higher at hospitals with high complications. These findings suggest that local, regional, and national efforts aimed at improving surgical quality may ultimately reduce costs and improve outcomes.

Decision-making process reported by Medicare patients who had coronary artery stenting or surgery for prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Patients facing decisions should be told about their options, have the opportunity to discuss the pros and cons, and have their preferences reflected in the final decision. OBJECTIVES: To learn how decisions were made for two major preference-sensitive interventions. DESIGN: Mail survey of probability samples of patients who underwent the procedures. PARTICIPANTS: Fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries who had surgery for prostate cancer or elective coronary artery stenting in the last half of 2008. MAIN MEASUREMENTS: Patients' reports of which options were presented for serious consideration, the amount of discussion of the pros and cons of the chosen option, and if they were asked about their preferences. RESULTS: The majority (64%) of prostate cancer surgery patients reported that at least one alternative to surgery was presented as a serious option. Almost all (94%) said they and their doctors discussed the pros, and 63% said they discussed the cons of surgery "a lot" or "some". Most (76%) said they were asked about their treatment preferences. Few who received stents said they were presented with options to seriously consider (10%). While most (77%) reported talking with doctors about the reasons for stents "a lot" or "some", few (19%) reported talking about the cons. Only 16% said they were asked about their treatment preferences. CONCLUSIONS: While prostate cancer surgery patients reported more involvement in decision making than elective stent patients, the reports of both groups document the need for increased efforts to inform and involve patients facing preference-sensitive intervention decisions.

Spending differences associated with the Medicare Physician Group Practice Demonstration.

CONTEXT: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) recently launched accountable care organization (ACO) programs designed to improve quality and slow cost growth. The ACOs resemble an earlier pilot, the Medicare Physician Group Practice Demonstration (PGPD), in which participating physician groups received bonus payments if they achieved lower cost growth than local controls and met quality targets. Although evidence indicates the PGPD improved quality, uncertainty remains about its effect on costs. OBJECTIVE: To estimate cost savings associated with the PGPD overall and for beneficiaries dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. DESIGN: Quasi-experimental analyses comparing preintervention (2001-2004) and postintervention (2005-2009) trends in spending of PGPD participants to local control groups. We compared estimates using several alternative approaches to adjust for case mix. SETTING: Ten physician groups from across the United States. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: The intervention group was composed of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries (n = 990,177) receiving care primarily from the physicians in the participating medical groups. Controls were Medicare beneficiaries (n = 7,514,453) from the same regions who received care largely from non-PGPD physicians. Overall, 15% of beneficiaries were dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Annual spending per Medicare fee-for-service beneficiary. RESULTS: Annual savings per beneficiary were modest overall (adjusted mean $114, 95% CI, $12-$216). Annual savings were significant in dually eligible beneficiaries (adjusted mean $532, 95% CI, $277-$786), but were not significant among nondually eligible beneficiaries (adjusted mean $59, 95% CI, $166 in savings to $47 in additional spending). The adjusted mean spending reductions were concentrated in acute care (overall, $118, 95% CI, $65-$170; dually eligible: $381, 95% CI, $247-$515; nondually eligible: $85, 95% CI, $32-$138). There was significant variation in savings across practice groups, ranging from an overall mean per-capita annual saving of $866 (95% CI, $815-$918) to an increase in expenditures of $749 (95% CI, $698-$799). Thirty-day medical readmissions decreased overall (-0.67%, 95% CI, -1.11% to -0.23%) and in the dually eligible (-1.07%, 95% CI, -1.73% to -0.41%), while surgical readmissions decreased only for the dually eligible (-2.21%, 95% CI, -3.07% to -1.34%). Estimates were sensitive to the risk-adjustment method. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial PGPD savings achieved by some participating institutions were offset by a lack of saving at other participating institutions. Most of the savings were concentrated among dually eligible beneficiaries.

Trends in Mortality Rates Among Medicare Enrollees With Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias Before and During the Early Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

IMPORTANCE: The COVID-19 pandemic fundamentally altered the delivery of health care in the United States. The associations between these COVID-19-related changes and outcomes in vulnerable patients, such as among persons with Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD), are not yet well understood. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between regional rates of COVID-19 infection and excess mortality among individuals with ADRD. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective cross-sectional study used data from beneficiaries of 100% fee-for-service Medicare Parts A and B between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2020, to assess age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates. Participants were 53 640 888 Medicare enrollees 65 years of age or older categorized into 4 prespecified cohorts: enrollees with or without ADRD and enrollees with or without ADRD residing in nursing homes. EXPOSURES: Monthly COVID-19 infection rates by hospital referral region between January and December 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Mortality rates from March through December 2020 were compared with those from March through December 2019. Excess mortality was calculated by comparing mortality rates in 2020 with rates in 2019 for specific, predetermined groups. Means were compared using t tests, and 95% CIs were estimated using the delta method. RESULTS: This cross-sectional study included 26 952 752 Medicare enrollees in 2019 and 26 688 136 enrollees in 2020. In 2019, the mean (SD) age of community-dwelling beneficiaries without ADRD was 74.1 (8.8) years and with ADRD was 82.6 (8.4) years. The mean (SD) age of nursing home residents with ADRD (83.6 [8.4] years) was similar to that for patients without ADRD (79.7 [8.8] years). Among patients diagnosed as having ADRD in 2019, 63.5% were women, 2.7% were Asian, 9.2% were Black, 5.7% were Hispanic, 80.7% were White, and 1.7% were identified as other (included all races or ethnicities other than those given); the composition did not change appreciably in 2020. Compared with 2019, adjusted mortality in 2020 was 12.4% (95% CI, 12.1%-12.6%) higher among enrollees without ADRD and 25.7% (95% CI, 25.3%-26.2%) higher among all enrollees with ADRD, with even higher percentages for Asian (36.0%; 95% CI, 32.6%-39.3%), Black (36.7%; 95% CI, 35.2%-38.2%), and Hispanic (40.1%; 95% CI, 37.9%-42.3%) populations with ADRD. The hospital referral region in the lowest quintile for COVID-19 infections in 2020 had no excess mortality among enrollees without ADRD but 8.8% (95% CI, 7.5%-10.2%) higher mortality among community-dwelling enrollees with ADRD and 14.2% (95% CI, 12.2%-16.2%) higher mortality among enrollees with ADRD living in nursing homes. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The results of this cross-sectional study suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic may be associated with excess mortality among older adults with ADRD, especially for Asian, Black, and Hispanic populations and people living in nursing homes, even in areas with low COVID-19 prevalence.

Complications and Mortality Following CRT-D Versus ICD Implants in Older Medicare Beneficiaries With Heart Failure.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to assess the comparative effectiveness of cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator (CRT-D) over implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) alone in older Medicare patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). BACKGROUND: Despite growing numbers of older patients with HFrEF, the benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in this group are largely unknown. METHODS: A cohort of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 years of age with HFrEF and enrolled in Medicare Part D who underwent CRT-D or ICD implantation from January 2008 to August 2015 was identified. Beneficiaries were divided by age (65-74, 75-84, and 85+ years), and outcomes were compared between the CRT-D and ICD groups after inverse probability weighting. RESULTS: Compared with the ICD group, the CRT-D group was older and more likely to be White, be female, and have left bundle branch block. After weighting, overall complications were high across age and device groups (14%-20%). The 1-year mortality was high across all groups. In the 2 oldest age strata, the hazard of death was lower in the CRT-D group (HR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.86-0.95 and HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.72-0.90, respectively; P < 0.001); the hazard of heart failure hospitalization was lower for CRT-D vs ICD in the 85+ years age group (HR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.74-0.92; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In older Medicare beneficiaries undergoing ICD with or without CRT, complications and 1-year mortality were high. Compared with ICD alone, CRT-D was associated with a lower hazard of mortality in patients ≥74 years of age and lower hazard of HF hospitalization in those ≥85 years of age. These findings support the use of CRT in eligible older patients undergoing ICD implantation.