RESUMO
Understanding the regional hydrological response to varying CO2 concentration is critical for cost-benefit analysis of mitigation and adaptation polices in the near future. To characterize summer monsoon rainfall change in East Asia in a changing CO2 pathway, we used the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with 28 ensemble members in which the CO2 concentration increases at a rate of 1% per year until its quadrupling peak, i.e., 1468 ppm (ramp-up period), followed by a decrease of 1% per year until the present-day climate conditions, i.e., 367 ppm (ramp-down period). Although the CO2 concentration change is symmetric in time, the amount of summer rainfall anomaly in East Asia is increased 42% during a ramp-down period than that during a ramp-up period when the two periods of the same CO2 concentration are compared. This asymmetrical rainfall response is mainly due to an enhanced El Niño-like warming pattern as well as its associated increase in the sea surface temperature in the western North Pacific during a ramp-down period. These sea surface temperature patterns enhance the atmospheric teleconnections and the local meridional circulations around East Asia, resulting in more rainfall over East Asia during a ramp-down period. This result implies that the removal of CO2 does not guarantee the return of regional rainfall to the previous climate state with the same CO2 concentration.
Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Estações do Ano , Ásia Oriental , TemperaturaRESUMO
Characteristics of sea ice extent (SIE) have been rapidly changing in the Pacific Arctic sector (PAS) in recent years. The SIE variability in PAS during the late spring and early summer (i.e., April-May-June, AMJ) plays a key role in determining the SIE during the following fall when SIE is at a minimum. We find that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is the most dominant variability of sea surface temperature (SST) on the low-frequency timescales, differently influences the SIE in PAS during AMJ before and after the mid-1990s. While a positive phase of PDO during the previous winter acts to increases SIE during AMJ before the mid-1990s, it acts to decrease SIE during AMJ after the mid-1990s. Further analysis indicates that atmospheric circulation associated with PDO differently influences the variability of SIE in the PAS during AMJ by modulating poleward moisture transport across the Alaska or the Far East Asia peninsula. This results in the change in the relationship of PDO and SIE in the PAS before and after the mid-1990s.
RESUMO
PURPOSE: To assess graft vascularity via dynamic contrast enhanced-magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) at 1-year and 2-year postoperatively and to evaluate the relationship between the vascularity using DCE-MRI and the synovialization using second-look arthroscopy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty-four patients from prospective data included who underwent anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) and DCE-MRI. The graft was divided into proximal, middle, and distal zones; average of three zones was calculated. Signal/noise quotient (SNQ) was measured on proton-density image and normalized area under the curve (nAUC) was calculated from DCE-MRI. The results at 1-year (SNQ-1 and nAUC-1) and 2-year (SNQ-2 and nAUC-2) postoperatively were compared between two time points. Forty-one patients underwent second-look arthroscopy were classified into three groups according to the synovialization: Excellent (n = 17), Fair (n = 16), and Poor (n = 8). The SNQs and nAUCs were compared between three groups. RESULTS: Fifty-four and 23 patients underwent DCE-MRI at 1-year and 2-year, respectively. A significant decrease was observed from nAUCaverage-1 to nAUCaverage-2 (95 % confidential interval, 0.4-2.3; P = .007). Both SNQaverage-1 and SNQaverage-2 were significantly lower in the excellent than in the poor (SNQaverage-1, P < .001; SNQaverage-2, P = .003). Both SNQaverage-1 and SNQaverage-2 were significantly lower in the fair than in the poor (SNQaverage-1, P=.032; SNQaverage-2, P = .012). Both nAUCaverage-1 and nAUCaverage-2 were significantly higher in the excellent than in the poor (nAUCaverage-1, P < .001; nAUCaverage-2, P = .010). The nAUCaverage-1 was significantly higher in the excellent than the fair (nAUCaverage-1, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Well-synovialized grafts showed significantly lower SNQs and significantly higher nAUCs than did poor-synovialized grafts based on the second-look arthroscopic findings. We can indirectly infer from this result that well-synovialized grafts may have better biomechanical properties.