Linking atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic environments: Regime shifts in the Estonian climate over the past 50 years.

Climate change in recent decades has been identified as a significant threat to natural environments and human wellbeing. This is because some of the contemporary changes to climate are abrupt and result in persistent changes in the state of natural systems; so called regime shifts (RS). This study aimed to detect and analyse the timing and strength of RS in Estonian climate at the half-century scale (1966-2013). We demonstrate that the extensive winter warming of the Northern Hemisphere in the late 1980s was represented in atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems to an extent not observed before or after the event within the studied time series. In 1989, abiotic variables displayed statistically significant regime shifts in atmospheric, river and marine systems, but not in lake and bog systems. This was followed by regime shifts in the biotic time series of bogs and marine ecosystems in 1990. However, many biotic time series lacked regime shifts, or the shifts were uncoupled from large-scale atmospheric circulation. We suggest that the latter is possibly due to complex and temporally variable interactions between abiotic and biotic elements with ecosystem properties buffering biotic responses to climate change signals, as well as being affected by concurrent anthropogenic impacts on natural environments.

Effect of Microcystis aeruginosa and Nodularia spumigena on survival of Eurytemora affinis and the embryonic and larval development of the Baltic herring Clupea harengus membras.

Laboratory experiments were carried out to investigate the effect of two strains of Microcystis aeruginosa and a strain of Nodularia spumigena on the survival of Eurytemora affinis (Copepoda) and on the embryonic and larval development of the Baltic spring-spawning herring Clupea harengus membras. The trials were made in water taken from Pärnu Bay, at a salinity of 3.7-5.1 psu, a constant temperature (15 degrees C +/- 1 degrees C in trials with Eurytemora and herring embryos; 18 degrees C +/- 2 degrees C with herring larvae), and an oxygen concentration of 8.8-10.4 ppm. The strains tested had a negative impact on the survival of Eurytemora, as well as on the embryonic development and hatching regime of the Baltic herring. In Eurytemora the response depended on the sex of the animals: the survival was clearly higher in females. In the embryonic stages of herring, the influence resulted in an increase in deviations from the normal pattern of development and a higher mortality. The impact of the strains on the larval development of herring was rather moderate.