Prevalence of Independence at Home-Qualifying Beneficiaries in Traditional Medicare, 2014-2021.

Importance: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Innovation Center Independence at Home (IAH) demonstration, a test of home-based primary care operating in a value-based shared-savings payment model, ended December 2023 after a decade of consistently showing savings to Medicare. It is important to assess whether high-need, IAH-qualified beneficiaries continue to pose a growing challenge to traditional Medicare (TM) or if Medicare Advantage (MA), with programmatic features favorable to caring for this subset of the general Medicare population, can disproportionately provide such care. Objective: To examine the size and share of IAH-qualified beneficiaries in TM and MA. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used all Medicare claims data and MA encounter data for 2014 and 2021. IAH qualifying criteria were applied to the TM populations enrolled in Parts A and B in 2014 and 2021, and to MA enrollees in 2021. Growth in the number of IAH-qualified TM beneficiaries from 2014 to 2021 was calculated, and the proportions and numbers of IAH-qualified enrollees in the total 2021 TM and MA populations were compared. Data were analyzed between April and June 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The number and share of beneficiaries meeting IAH criteria in TM and MA; the share of TM spending among IAH-qualified beneficiaries. Results: Among 64 million Medicare beneficiaries in 2021, there were 30.55 million beneficiaries in TM with Parts A and B coverage, down from 33.82 million in 2014. The number of IAH-qualified beneficiaries in TM grew 51%, from 2.16 million to 3.27 million, while their proportionate share in TM grew 67% from 6.4% to 10.7% of TM between 2014 and 2021. IAH-qualified beneficiaries represented $155 billion in 2021 Medicare Parts A and B spending, 44% of all TM spending, up from 29% of total spending in 2014. In 2021, 2.15 million IAH-qualified beneficiaries represented 8.0% of Medicare Advantage enrollees. Combining TM and MA, 5.42 million IAH-qualified beneficiaries represented 9.3% of all Medicare beneficiaries, with 3.27 million (60.3%) being insured by TM. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of IAH-qualified Medicare beneficiaries, the share of IAH-qualified beneficiaries in TM grew between 2014 and 2021, with 60% of Medicare high-need beneficiaries accounting for 44% of TM spending. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services should continue to operate value-based programs like IAH that are specifically designed for these high-needs individuals.

Integrated Home- and Community-Based Services Improve Community Survival Among Independence at Home Medicare Beneficiaries Without Increasing Medicaid Costs.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the effect of home-based primary care (HBPC) for frail older adults, operating under Independence at Home (IAH) incentive alignment on long-term institutionalization (LTI). DESIGN: Case-cohort study using HBPC site, Medicare administrative data, and National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) benchmarks. SETTING: Three IAH-participating HBPC sites in Philadelphia, PA, Richmond, VA, and Washington, DC. PARTICIPANTS: HBPC integrated with long-term services and supports (LTSS) cases (n = 721) and concurrent comparison groups (HBPC not integrated with LTSS: n = 82; no HBPC: n = 573). Cases were eligible if enrolled at one of the three HBPC sites from 2012 to 2015. Independence at Home-qualified (IAH-Q) concurrent comparison groups were selected from Philadelphia, PA; Richmond, VA; and Washington, DC. INTERVENTION: HBPC integrated with LTSS under IAH demonstration incentives. MEASUREMENTS: Measurements include LTI rate and mortality rates, community survival, and LTSS costs. RESULTS: The LTI rate in the three HBPC programs (8%) was less than that of both concurrent comparison groups (IAH-Q beneficiaries not receiving HBPC, 16%; patients receiving HBPC but not in the IAH demonstration practices, 18%). LTI for patients at each HBPC site declined over the three study years (9.9%, 9.4%, and 4.9%, respectively). Costs of home- and community-based services (HCBS) were nonsignificantly lower among integrated care patients ($2151/mo; observed-to-expected ratio = .88 [.68-1.09]). LTI-free survival in the IAH HBPC group was 85% at 36 months, extending average community residence by 12.8 months compared with IAH-q participants in NHATS. CONCLUSION: HBPC integrated with long-term support services delays LTI in frail, medically complex Medicare beneficiaries without increasing HCBS costs.

Nursing home characteristics related to medicare costs for residents with and without dementia.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the relationship of nursing home characteristics to Medicare costs overall and by dementia status. DESIGN: New admissions followed for 2 years. Setting. Random stratified sample of 55 Maryland nursing homes. PARTICIPANTS: Sample of 1257 residents. MEASURES: Records, interview, and observation. RESULTS: Medicare costs were lower in facilities that have a better environmental quality, hospice beds, and more food service workers; costs were higher in hospital-based facilities and those that have a higher Medicaid case mix, X-ray, and some specified types of staff. Across all characteristics, costs for residents with dementia were consistently two-thirds the cost of other residents. DISCUSSION: In terms of dementia status, resident characteristics drive Medicare costs, as opposed to facility characteristics. Using alternative residential settings for individuals with dementia may increase Medicare costs of nursing home residents and Medicare costs of residents with dementia who are cared for in settings less able to attend to medical needs.

Home-Based Primary Care: Beyond Extension of the Independence at Home Demonstration.

The Independence at Home (IAH) Demonstration Year 2 results confirmed that the first-year savings were 10 times as great as those of the pioneer accountable care organizations during their initial 2 years. We update projected savings from nationwide conversion of the IAH demonstration, incorporating Year 2 results and improving attribution of IAH-qualified (IAH-Q) Medicare beneficiaries to home-based primary care (HBPC) practices. Applying IAH qualifying criteria to beneficiaries in the Medicare 5% claims file, the effect of expanding HBPC to the 2.4 million IAH-Q beneficiaries is projected using various growth rates. Total 10-year system-wide savings (accounting for IAH implementation but before excluding shared savings) range from $2.6 billion to $27.8 billion, depending on how many beneficiaries receive HBPC on conversion to a Medicare benefit, mix of clinical practice success, and growth rate of IAH practices. Net projected savings to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) after routine billing for IAH services and distribution of shared savings ranges from $1.8 billion to $10.9 billion. If aligning IAH with other advanced alternative payment models achieved at least 35% penetration of the eligible population in 10 years, CMS savings would exceed savings with the current IAH design and HBPC growth rate. If the demonstration were simply extended 2 years with a beneficiary cap of 50,000 instead of 15,000 (as currently proposed), CMS would save an additional $46 million. The recent extension of IAH, a promising person-centered CMS program for managing medically complex and frail elderly adults, offers the chance to evaluate modifications to promote more rapid HBPC growth.

National Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel's updated pressure ulcer staging system.

The National Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel has updated the definition of a pressure ulcer and the stages of pressure ulcers based on current research and expert opinion solicited from hundreds of clinicians, educators, and researchers across the country. The amount of anatomical tissue loss described with each stage has not changed. New definitions were drafted to achieve accuracy, clarity, succinctness, clinical utility, and discrimination between and among the definitions of other pressure ulcer stages and other types of wounds. Deep tissue injury was also added as a distinct pressure ulcer in this updated system.

National Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel's updated pressure ulcer staging system.

The National Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel has updated the definition of a pressure ulcer and the stages of pressure ulcers based on current research and expert opinion solicited from hundreds of clinicians, educators, and researchers across the country. The amount of anatomical tissue loss described with each stage has not changed. New definitions were drafted to achieve accuracy, clarity, succinctness, clinical utility, and discrimination between and among the definitions of other pressure ulcer stages and other types of wounds. Deep tissue injury was also added as a distinct pressure ulcer in this updated system.

Projected Savings and Workforce Transformation from Converting Independence at Home to a Medicare Benefit.

The Independence at Home (IAH) Demonstration Year 1 results have confirmed earlier studies that showed the ability of home-based primary care (HBPC) to improve care and lower costs for Medicare's frailest beneficiaries. The first-year report showed IAH savings of 7.7% for all programs and 17% for the nine of 17 programs that surpassed the 5% mandatory savings threshold. Using these results as applied to the Medicare 5% claims file, the effect of expanding HBPC to the 2.2 million Medicare beneficiaries who are similar to IAH demonstration participants was projected. Total savings ranged from $12 billion to $53 billion depending on the speed and extent of dissemination of HBPC among this IAH-like population. Using a fixed growth rate, as hospitalists experienced in their first decade, 35% coverage would be achieved at the end of 10 years, with total 10-year savings through IAH reaching $37.5 billion and $17.3 billion accruing to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services as a net reduction in overall expenditures, with $12.6 billion from Medicare Parts A and B savings.

The National Pressure Ulcer Long-Term Care Study: outcomes of pressure ulcer treatments in long-term care.

OBJECTIVES: To identify resident, wound, and treatment characteristics associated with pressure ulcer (PrU) healing in long-term care residents. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study with convenience sampling. SETTING: Ninety-five long-term care facilities participating in the National Pressure Ulcer Long-Term Care Study throughout the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Eight hundred eighty-two residents, aged 18 and older, with length of stay of 14 days or longer, who had at least one Stage II to IV PrU. MEASUREMENTS: Data collected for each resident over a 12-week period included resident characteristics, treatment characteristics, and change in PrU area. Data were obtained from medical records, Minimum Data Set, and other records. RESULTS: Two multiple regression models, one for each stage grouping (Stage II, Stage III and IV), were completed. The area of Stage II PrU was reduced more with moist (F=21.91, P<.001) than with dry (F=13.41, P<.001) dressings. PrUs cleaned with saline or soap showed less decrease in area (F=12.34, P<.001) than PrUs cleaned with other cleansers such as antiseptic, antibiotic, or commercial cleansers. Change in area of Stage III and IV PrUs was related to sufficient enteral feeding (F=5.23, P=.02), enteral feeding without higher acuity levels (F=3.94, P=.048), size of PrU (very large (F=120.89, P=.001) and large (F=27.82, P=.001)), and type of dressing (moist (F=14.70, P<.001) and dry (F=5.88, P=.02)). Stage III and IV PrUs increased in area when debrided (F=5.97, P=.02). The overall models were significant (Stage III and IV, F=20.30, coefficient of determination (R2)=0.06, P<.001; Stage II, F=40.28, R2=0.13, P<.001) but explained little of the variation in change in PrU area. CONCLUSION: In this sample of nursing facility residents, use of moist dressings (Stage II, Stage III and IV) and adequate nutritional support (Stage III and IV) are strong predictors of PrU healing.

Mortality and adverse health events in newly admitted nursing home residents with and without dementia.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between dementia and mortality, adverse health events, and discharge disposition of newly admitted nursing home residents. It was hypothesized that residents with dementia would die at a higher rate and develop more adverse health events (e.g., infections, fevers, pressure ulcers, falls) than residents without dementia because of communication and self-care difficulties. DESIGN: An expert clinician panel diagnosed an admission cohort from a stratified random sample of 59 Maryland nursing homes, between 1992 and 1995. The cohort was followed for up to 2 years or until discharge. SETTING: Fifty-nine Maryland nursing homes. PARTICIPANTS: Two thousand one hundred fifty-three newly admitted residents aged 65 and older not having resided in a nursing home for 8 or more days in the previous year. MEASUREMENTS: Mortality, infection, fever, pressure ulcers, fractures, and discharge home. RESULTS: Residents with dementia had significantly lower overall rates of infection (relative risk (RR)=0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.70-0.85) and mortality (RR=0.61, 95% CI=0.53-0.71) than those without dementia, whereas rates of fever, pressure ulcers, and fractures were similar for the two groups. These results persisted when rates were adjusted for demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, and functional status. During the first 90 days of the nursing home stay, residents with dementia had significantly lower rates of mortality if not admitted for rehabilitative care under a Medicare qualifying stay (RR=0.25, 95% CI=0.14-0.45), were less often discharged home (RR=0.33, 95% CI=0.28-0.38), and tended to have lower fever rates (RR=0.78, 95% CI=0.63-0.96) than residents without dementia. CONCLUSION: Newly admitted nursing home residents with dementia have a profile of health events that is distinct from that of residents without dementia, indicating that the two groups have different long-term care needs. Results suggest that further investigation of whether residents with dementia can be well managed in alternative residential settings would be valuable.

The National Pressure Ulcer Long-Term Care Study: pressure ulcer development in long-term care residents.

OBJECTIVES: To identify resident, treatment, and facility characteristics associated with pressure ulcer (PU) development in long-term care residents. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study with convenience sampling. SETTING: Ninety-five long-term care facilities participating in the National Pressure Ulcer Long-Term Care Study throughout the United States. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1,524 residents aged 18 and older, with length of stay of 14 days or longer, who did not have an existing PU but were at risk of developing a PU, as defined by a Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk score of 17 or less, on study entry. MEASUREMENTS: Data collected for each resident over a 12-week period included resident characteristics (e.g., demographics, medical history, severity of illness using the Comprehensive Severity Index, Braden Scale scores, nutritional factors), treatment characteristics (nutritional interventions, pressure management strategies, incontinence treatments, medications), staffing ratios and other facility characteristics, and outcome (PU development during study period). Data were obtained from medical records, Minimum Data Set, and other written records (e.g., physician orders, medication logs). RESULTS: Seventy-one percent of subjects (n=1,081) did not develop a PU during the 12-week study period; the remaining 29% of residents (n=443) developed a new PU. Resident, treatment, and facility characteristics associated with greater likelihood of developing a Stage I to IV PU included higher initial severity of illness, history of recent PU, significant weight loss, oral eating problems, use of catheters, and use of positioning devices. Characteristics associated with decreased likelihood of developing a Stage I to IV PU included new resident, nutritional intervention (e.g., use of oral medical nutritional supplements and tube feeding for >21 days), antidepressant use, use of disposable briefs for more than 14 days, registered nurse hours of 0.25 hours per resident per day or more, nurses' aide hours of 2 hours per resident per day or more, and licensed practical nurse turnover rate of less than 25%. When Stage I PUs were excluded from the analyses, the same variables were significant, with the addition of fluid orders associated with decreased likelihood of developing a PU. CONCLUSION: A broad range of factors, including nutritional interventions, fluid orders, medications, and staffing patterns, are associated with prevention of PUs in long-term care residents. Research-based PU prevention protocols need to be developed that include these factors and target interventions for reducing risk factors.

Dementia as a risk factor for falls and fall injuries among nursing home residents.

OBJECTIVES: To compare rates of falling between nursing home residents with and without dementia and to examine dementia as an independent risk factor for falls and fall injuries. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study with 2 years of follow-up. SETTING: Fifty-nine randomly selected nursing homes in Maryland, stratified by geographic region and facility size. PARTICIPANTS: Two thousand fifteen newly admitted residents aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: During 2 years after nursing home admission, fall data were collected from nursing home charts and hospital discharge summaries. RESULTS: The unadjusted fall rate for residents in the nursing home with dementia was 4.05 per year, compared with 2.33 falls per year for residents without dementia (P<.0001). The effect of dementia on the rate of falling persisted when known risk factors were taken into account. Among fall events, those occurring to residents with dementia were no more likely to result in injury than falls of residents without dementia, but, given the markedly higher rates of falling by residents with dementia, their rate of injurious falls was higher than for residents without dementia. CONCLUSION: Dementia is an independent risk factor for falling. Although most falls do not result in injury, the fact that residents with dementia fall more often than their counterparts without dementia leaves them with a higher overall risk of sustaining injurious falls over time. Nursing home residents with dementia should be considered important candidates for fall-prevention and fall-injury-prevention strategies.

Description of the National Pressure Ulcer Long-Term Care Study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe and provide baseline data from The National Pressure Ulcer Long-Term Care Study (NPULS). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of detailed resident characteristics, treatments, and outcomes using convenience sampling. SETTING: One hundred nine long-term care facilities throughout the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Two thousand four hundred twenty adult residents aged 18 and older, with a length of stay of 14 days or longer and who were at risk of developing a pressure ulcer, as defined by a Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk MEASUREMENTS: More than 500 characteristics were obtained for each resident over a 12-week period. This paper describes the NPULS database with respect to the resident (sex, age, diagnoses, severity of illness scores, Braden Scale score, activities of daily living, cognitive ability, mobility, bowel or bladder incontinence, laboratory values, nutritional assessment, and pressure ulcer assessment documentation), treatment (nutritional interventions, pressure relieving devices, incontinence interventions, protective devices, turning schedules, and pressure ulcer treatments), and outcome variables (pressure ulcer development and healing, pressure ulcer and systemic infection, changes in nutritional status, and discharge disposition) associated with pressure ulcers. Descriptive statistics and bivariate associations were used for preliminary analyses of resident, treatment, and outcome characteristics. RESULTS: The average age +/- standard deviation was 79.7 +/- 14.2; 70% of the residents were female. Fifty-three percent of residents (n = 1,293) were at risk of developing a pressure ulcer but never developed one during the study (Group 1), 19% developed a new pressure ulcer during the study (n = 457) (Group 2), 22% had an existing pressure ulcer (n = 534) (Group 3), and 6% had an existing pressure ulcer and developed a new ulcer during the study (n = 136) (Group 4). Residents who developed a new pressure ulcer (Group 2) were more likely to be female, older, cognitively impaired, and immobile than residents who had an existing pressure ulcer (Group 3). CONCLUSIONS: This baseline study describes the NPULS database with respect to the resident, treatment, and outcome variables associated with pressure ulcers. Future studies will focus on multivariate analyses for risk factor prediction of pressure ulcer development and pressure ulcer healing. Research-based pressure ulcer prevention and treatment protocols can then be developed.

Is there a doctor in the house?

The Washington Hospital Center initiated a geriatric medical and house call service for its local elderly population. Preliminary data shows that ER visits have been reduced by about 30 percent and admissions reduced by 10 percent, compared to the same patients in the year before enrollment. In most cases, the medical care is more effective, less costly, and more accessible for both the family and the health care system.

Effects of home-based primary care on Medicare costs in high-risk elders.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the effect of home-based primary care (HBPC) on Medicare costs and mortality in frail elders. DESIGN: Case-control concurrent study using Medicare administrative data. SETTING: HBPC practice in Washington, District of Columbia. PARTICIPANTS: HBPC cases (n = 722) and controls (n = 2,161) matched for sex, age bands, race, Medicare buy-in status (whether Medicaid covers Part B premiums), long-term nursing home status, cognitive impairment, and frailty. Cases were eligible if enrolled in MedStar Washington Hospital Center's HBPC program during 2004 to 2008. Controls were selected from Washington, District of Columbia, and urban counties in Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. INTERVENTION: HBPC clinical service. MEASUREMENTS: Medicare costs, utilization events, mortality. RESULTS: Mean age was 83.7 for cases and 82.0 for controls (P < .001). A majority of both groups was female (77%) and African American (90%). During a mean 2-year follow-up, in univariate analysis, cases had lower Medicare ($44,455 vs $50,977, P = .01), hospital ($17,805 vs $22,096, P = .003), and skilled nursing facility care ($4,821 vs $6,098, P = .001) costs, and higher home health ($6,579 vs $4,169; P < .001) and hospice ($3,144 vs. $1,505; P = .005) costs. Cases had 23% fewer subspecialist visits (P = .001) and 105% more generalist visits (P < .001). In a multivariate model, cases had 17% lower Medicare costs, averaging $8,477 less per beneficiary (P = .003) over 2 years of follow-up. There was no difference between cases and controls in mortality (40% vs 36%, hazard ratio = 1.06, P = .44) or in average time to death (16.2 vs 16.8 months, P = .30). CONCLUSION: HBPC reduces Medicare costs for ill elders, with similar survival outcomes in cases and controls.