Obesity and adverse childhood experiences in relation to stress during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging.

BACKGROUND: People with obesity are at increased risk of chronic stress, and this may have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Adverse childhood experiences (ACE) are also associated with both obesity and stress, and may modify risk of stress among people with obesity. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the associations between obesity, ACEs, and stress during the pandemic, and to determine if the association between obesity and stress was modified by ACEs. METHODS: A longitudinal study was conducted among adults aged 50-96 years (n = 23,972) from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA) COVID-19 Study. Obesity and ACEs were collected pre-pandemic (2015-2018), and stress was measured at COVID-19 Exit Survey (Sept-Dec 2020). We used logistic, Poisson, and negative binomial regression to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between obesity, ACEs, and stress outcomes during the pandemic. Interaction by ACEs was evaluated on the additive and multiplicative scales. RESULTS: People with obesity were more likely to experience an increase in overall stressors (class III obesity vs. healthy weight RR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.12-1.27) as well as increased health related stressors (class III obesity vs. healthy weight RR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.12-1.39) but did not perceive the consequences of the pandemic as negative. ACEs were also associated an increase in overall stressors (4-8 ACEs vs. none RR = 1.38; 95% CI: 1.33-1.44) and being more likely to perceive the pandemic as negative (4-8 ACEs vs. none RR = 1.32; 95% CI: 1.19-1.47). The association between obesity and stress was not modified by ACEs. CONCLUSIONS: Increased stress during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic was observed among people with obesity or ACEs. The long-term outcomes of stress during the pandemic need to be determined.

Resurrecting Multiattribute Utility Function: Developing a Value Set for Health Utility for Glaucoma.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop a scoring function to calculate health utilities for health states described by the Health Utility for Glaucoma (HUG-5) based on the preferences of the general population in the United States. METHODS: Preferences for HUG-5 health states were elicited using the standard gamble and visual analog scale through an online survey. Quota-based sampling was used to recruit a representative sample of the US general population in terms of age, sex, and race. A multiple attribute disutility function (MADUF) approach was adopted to derive scoring for the HUG-5. Model fit was assessed using mean absolute error associated with 5 HUG-5 marker health states that describe mild/moderate and severe glaucoma. RESULTS: Of 634 respondents completing the tasks, 416 were included in the estimation of the MADUF; 260 respondents (63%) considered worst possible HUG-5 health state better than death. The preferred scoring function generates the utilities ranging from 0.05 (worst HUG-5 health state) to 1 (best HUG-5 health state). The correlation between mean elicited and estimated values for marker states was strong (R2 = 0.97) with mean absolute error = 0.11. CONCLUSIONS: The MADUF for HUG-5 is used to measure health utilities on the scale of perfect health and death, which can be used to estimate quality-adjusted life-years for economic evaluations of glaucoma interventions.

Health care utilization and outcomes of patients seen by virtual urgent care versus in-person emergency department care.

BACKGROUND: Virtual urgent care (VUC) is intended to support diversion of patients with low-acuity complaints and reduce the need for in-person emergency department visits. We aimed to describe subsequent health care utilization and outcomes of patients who used VUC compared with similar patients who had an in-person emergency department visit. METHODS: We used patient-level encounter data that were prospectively collected for patients using VUC services provided by 14 pilot programs in Ontario, Canada. We linked the data to provincial administrative databases to identify subsequent 30-day health care utilization and outcomes. We defined 2 subgroups of VUC users; those with a documented prompt referral to an emergency department by a VUC provider, and those without. We matched patients in each cohort to an equal number of patients presenting to an emergency department in person, based on encounter date, medical concern and the logit of a propensity score. For the subgroup of patients not promptly referred to an emergency department, we matched patients to those who were seen in an emergency department and then discharged home. RESULTS: Of the 19 595 patient VUC visits linked to administrative data, we matched 2129 patients promptly referred to the emergency department by a VUC provider to patients presenting to the emergency department in person. Index visit hospital admissions (9.4% v. 8.7%), 30-day emergency department visits (17.0% v. 17.5%), and hospital admissions (12.9% v. 11.0%) were similar between the groups. We matched 14 179 patients who were seen by a VUC provider with no documented referral to the emergency department. Patients seen by VUC were more likely to have a subsequent in-person emergency department visit within 72 hours (13.7% v. 7.0%), 7 days (16.5% v. 10.3%) and 30 days (21.9% v. 17.9%), but hospital admissions were similar within 72 hours (1.1% v. 1.3%), and higher within 30 days for patients who were discharged home from the emergency department (2.6% v. 3.4%). INTERPRETATION: The impact of the provincial VUC pilot program on subsequent health care utilization was limited. There is a need to better understand the inherent limitations of virtual care and ensure future virtual providers have timely access to in-person outpatient resources, to prevent subsequent emergency department visits.

Health TAPESTRY Ontario: A Multi-Site Randomized Controlled Trial Testing Implementation and Reproducibility.

PURPOSE: Health Teams Advancing Patient Experience: Strengthening Quality (Health TAPESTRY) is a complex primary care program aimed at assisting older adults to stay healthier for longer. This study evaluated the feasibility of implementation across multiple sites, and the reproducibility of the effects found in the previous randomized controlled trial. METHODS: This was a pragmatic, unblinded, 6-month parallel group randomized controlled trial. Participants were randomized (intervention or control) using a computer-generated system. Eligible patients, aged 70 years and older, were rostered to 1 of 6 participating interprofessional primary care practices (urban and rural). In total, 599 (301 intervention, 298 control) patients were recruited from March 2018 through August 2019. Intervention participants received a home visit from volunteers to collect information on physical and mental health, and social context. An interprofessional care team created and implemented a plan of care. The primary outcomes were physical activity and number of hospitalizations. RESULTS: Based on the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework, Health TAPESTRY had widespread reach and adoption. In the intention-to-treat analysis (257 intervention, 255 control), there were no statistically significant between-group differences for hospitalizations (incidence rate ratio = 0.79; 95% CI, 0.48-1.30; P = .35) or total physical activity (mean difference = -0.26; 95% CI, -1.18 to 0.67; P = .58). There were 37 non-study related serious adverse events (19 intervention, 18 control). CONCLUSIONS: We found Health TAPESTRY was successfully implemented for patients in diverse primary care practices; however, implementation did not reproduce the effect on hospitalizations and physical activity found in the initial randomized controlled trial.

Return on investment of Canadian tobacco control policies implemented between 2001 and 2016.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the return on investment (ROI) associated with tobacco control policies implemented between 2001 and 2016 in Canada. METHODS: Canadian expenditures on tobacco policies were collected from government sources. The economic benefits considered in our analyses (decrease in healthcare costs, productivity costs and monetised life years lost, as well as tax revenues) were based on the changes in smoking prevalence and attributable deaths derived from the SimSmoke simulation model for the period 2001-2016. The net economic benefit (monetised benefits minus expenditures) and ROI associated with these policies were determined from the government and societal perspectives. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to check the robustness of the result. Costs were expressed in 2019 Canadian dollars. RESULTS: The total of provincial and federal expenditures associated with the implementation of tobacco control policies in Canada from 2001 through 2016 was estimated at $2.4 billion. Total economic benefits from these policies during that time were calculated at $49.2 billion from the government perspective and at $54.2 billion from the societal perspective. The corresponding ROIs were $19.8 and $21.9 for every dollar invested. Sensitivity analyses yielded ROI values ranging from $16.3 to $28.3 for every dollar invested depending on the analyses and perspective. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis has found that the costs to implement the Canadian tobacco policies between 2001 and 2016 were far outweighed by the monetised value associated with the benefits of these policies, making a powerful case for the investment in tobacco control policies.

Health Utilities Index Mark 3 scores for children and youth: Population norms for Canada based on cycles 5 (2016 and 2017) and 6 (2018 and 2019) of the Canadian Health Measures Survey.

Background: Utility scores are an important tool for evaluating health-related quality of life. Utility score norms have been published for Canadian adults, but no nationally representative utility score norms are available for children and youth. Data and methods: Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3) data from two recent cycles of the Canadian Health Measures Survey (i.e., 2016 and 2017, and 2018 and 2019) were used to provide utility score norms for children aged 6 to 11 years and adolescents aged 12 to 17 years. Children younger than 14 years answered the HUI3 under the supervision of an adult, while older children answered without supervision. Utility scores were reported as a weighted average (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) and median values (interquartile range). Utility scores were stratified by sociodemographic and medical characteristics of the child or adolescent. Regression analyses were used to identify predictors of utility scores. All results were weighted using sampling weights provided by Statistics Canada. Results: Among the 2,297,136 children aged 6 to 11 years and the 2,329,185 adolescents aged 12 to 17 years in the weighted sample, the average utility scores were 0.95 (95% CI: 0.94 to 0.95) and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.87 to 0.90), respectively. Approximately 60% of the children and 34% of the adolescents had a utility score of 1.00. Analyses identified several factors associated with utility scores (e.g., age, chronic condition and income levels), although differences were observed between children and adolescents. Interpretation: This study provides utility score estimates based on a nationally representative sample of Canadian children and youth. Further research examining the determinants of utility scores of children and adolescents is warranted.

Bariatric Surgery and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Obesity and Cardiovascular Disease:: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery has been shown to significantly reduce cardiovascular risk factors. However, whether surgery can reduce major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), especially in patients with established cardiovascular disease, remains poorly understood. The present study aims to determine the association between bariatric surgery and MACE among patients with cardiovascular disease and severe obesity. METHODS: This was a propensity score-matched cohort study using province-wide multiple-linked administrative databases in Ontario, Canada. Patients with previous ischemic heart disease or heart failure who received bariatric surgery were matched on age, sex, heart failure history, and a propensity score to similar controls from a primary care medical record database in a 1:1 ratio. The primary outcome was the incidence of extended MACE (first occurrence of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, cerebrovascular events, and heart failure hospitalization). Secondary outcome included 3-component MACE (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and all-cause mortality). Outcomes were evaluated through a combination of matching via propensity score and subsequent multivariable adjustment. RESULTS: A total of 2638 patients (n=1319 in each group) were included, with a median follow-up time of 4.6 years. The primary outcome occurred in 11.5% (151/1319) of the surgery group and 19.6% (259/1319) of the controls (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.58 [95% CI, 0.48-0.71]; P<0.001). The association was notable for those with heart failure (HR, 0.44 [95% CI, 0.31-0.62]; P<0.001; absolute risk difference, 19.3% [95% CI, 12.0%-26.7%]) and in those with ischemic heart disease (HR, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.48-0.74]; P<0.001; absolute risk difference, 7.5% [95% CI, 4.7%-10.5%]). Surgery was also associated with a lower incidence of the secondary outcome (HR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.52-0.84]; P=0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 0.35 [95% CI, 0.15-0.80]; P=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric surgery was associated with a lower incidence of MACE in patients with cardiovascular disease and obesity. These findings require confirmation by a large-scale randomized trial.

Hip fracture predicts subsequent hip fracture: a retrospective observational study to support a call to early hip fracture prevention efforts in post-fracture patients.

In this real-world retrospective cohort, subsequent hip fracture occurred in one in four patients with any initial fracture, most often after hip fracture, on average within 1.5 years. These data support the need for early post-fracture interventions to help reduce imminent hip fracture risk and high societal and humanistic costs. PURPOSE: This large retrospective cohort study aimed to provide hip fracture data, in the context of other fractures, to help inform efforts related to hip fracture prevention focusing on post-fracture patients. METHODS: A cohort of 115,776 patients (72.3% female) aged > 65 (median age 81) with an index fracture occurring at skeletal sites related to age-related bone loss between January 1, 2011, and March 31, 2015, was identified using health services data from Ontario, Canada, and followed until March 31, 2017. RESULTS: Hip fracture was the most common second fracture (27.8%), occurring in ≥ 19% of cases after each index fracture site and most frequently (33.0%) after hip index fracture. Median time to a second fracture of the hip was ~ 1.5 years post-index event. Patients with index hip fracture contributed the most to fracture-related initial surgeries (64.1%) and post-surgery complications (71.9%) and had the second-highest total mean healthcare cost per patient in the first year after index fracture ($62,793 ± 44,438). One-year mortality (any cause) after index hip fracture was 26.2% vs. 15.9% in the entire cohort, and 25.9% after second hip fracture. CONCLUSION: A second fracture at the hip was observed in one in four patients after any index fracture and in one in three patients with an index hip fracture, on average within 1.5 years. Index hip fracture was associated with high mortality and post-surgery complication rates and healthcare costs relative to other fractures. These data support focusing on early hip fracture prevention efforts in post-fracture patients.

Rates of health services use among residents of retirement homes in Ontario: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Because there are no standardized reporting systems specific to residents of retirement homes in North America, little is known about the health of this distinct population of older adults. We evaluated rates of health services use by residents of retirement homes relative to those of residents of long-term care homes and other populations of older adults. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using population health administrative data from 2018 on adults 65 years or older in Ontario. We matched the postal codes of individuals to those of licensed retirement homes to identify residents of retirement homes. Outcomes included rates of hospital-based care and physician visits. RESULTS: We identified 54 733 residents of 757 retirement homes (mean age 86.7 years, 69.0% female) and 2 354 385 residents of other settings. Compared to residents of long-term care homes, residents of retirement homes had significantly higher rates per 1000 person months of emergency department visits (10.62 v. 4.48, adjusted relative rate [RR] 2.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.55 to 2.67), hospital admissions (5.42 v. 2.08, adjusted RR 2.77, 95% CI 2.71 to 2.82), alternate level of care (ALC) days (6.01 v. 2.96, adjusted RR 1.51, 95% CI 1.48 to 1.54), and specialist physician visits (6.27 v. 3.21, adjusted RR 1.64, 95% CI 1.61 to 1.68), but a significantly lower rate of primary care visits (16.71 v. 108.47, adjusted RR 0.13, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.14). INTERPRETATION: Residents of retirement homes are a distinct population with higher rates of hospital-based care. Our findings can help to inform policy debates about the need for more coordinated primary and supportive health care in privately operated congregate care homes.

A comparison of confounder selection and adjustment methods for estimating causal effects using large healthcare databases.

PURPOSE: Confounding adjustment is required to estimate the effect of an exposure on an outcome in observational studies. However, variable selection and unmeasured confounding are particularly challenging when analyzing large healthcare data. Machine learning methods may help address these challenges. The objective was to evaluate the capacity of such methods to select confounders and reduce unmeasured confounding bias. METHODS: A simulation study with known true effects was conducted. Completely synthetic and partially synthetic data incorporating real large healthcare data were generated. We compared Bayesian adjustment for confounding (BAC), generalized Bayesian causal effect estimation (GBCEE), Group Lasso and Doubly robust estimation, high-dimensional propensity score (hdPS), and scalable collaborative targeted maximum likelihood algorithms. For the hdPS, two adjustment approaches targeting the effect in the whole population were considered: Full matching and inverse probability weighting. RESULTS: In scenarios without hidden confounders, most methods were essentially unbiased. The bias and variance of the hdPS varied considerably according to the number of variables selected by the algorithm. In scenarios with hidden confounders, substantial bias reduction was achieved by using machine-learning methods to identify proxies as compared to adjusting only by observed confounders. hdPS and Group Lasso performed poorly in the partially synthetic simulation. BAC, GBCEE, and scalable collaborative-targeted maximum likelihood algorithms performed particularly well. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning can help to identify measured confounders in large healthcare databases. They can also capitalize on proxies of unmeasured confounders to substantially reduce residual confounding bias.

Economic Evaluation of Early Psychosis Interventions From A Canadian Perspective.

BACKGROUND: Compared to treatment as usual (TAU), early psychosis intervention programs (EPI) have been shown to reduce mortality, hospitalizations and days of assisted living while improving employment status. AIMS: The study aim was to conduct a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to compare EPI and TAU in Canada. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was used to estimate the 5-year costs and benefits of treating patients with a first episode of psychosis with EPI or TAU. EPI benefits were derived from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and Canadian administrative data. The cost of EPI was based on a published survey of 52 EPI centers in Canada while hospitalizations, employment and days of assisted living were valued using Canadian unit costs. The outcomes of the CBA and CEA were expressed in terms of net benefit (NB) and incremental cost per life year gained (LYG), respectively. Scenario analyses were conducted to examine the impact of key assumptions. Costs are reported in 2019 Canadian dollars. RESULTS: Base case results indicated that EPI had a NB of $85,441 (95% CI: $41,140; $126,386) compared to TAU while the incremental cost per LYG was $26,366 (95% CI: EPI dominates TAU (less costs, more life years); $102,269). In all sensitivity analyses the NB of EPI remained positive and the incremental cost per LYG was less than $50,000. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to EPI demonstrated clinical benefits, our results suggest that large-scale implementation of EPI in Canada would be desirable from an economic point of view .

A scoping review of strategies to support public health recovery in the transition to a "new normal" in the age of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the public health workforce has experienced re-deployment from core functions such as health promotion, disease prevention, and health protection, to preventing and tracking the spread of COVID-19. With continued pandemic deployment coupled with the exacerbation of existing health disparities due to the pandemic, public health systems need to re-start the delivery of core public health programming alongside COVID-19 activities. The purpose of this scoping review was to identify strategies that support the re-integration of core public health programming alongside ongoing pandemic or emergency response. METHODS: The Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for scoping reviews was used to guide this study. A comprehensive search was conducted using: a) online databases, b) grey literature, c) content experts to identify additional references, and d) searching reference lists of pertinent studies. All references were screened by two team members. References were included that met the following criteria: a) involved public health organizations (local, regional, national, and international); b) provided descriptions of strategies to support adaptation or delivery of routine public health measures alongside disaster response; and c) quantitative, qualitative, or descriptive designs. No restrictions were placed on language, publication status, publication date, or outcomes. Data on study characteristics, intervention/strategy, and key findings were independently extracted by two team members. Emergent themes were established through independent inductive analysis by two team members. RESULTS: Of 44,087 records identified, 17 studies were included in the review. Study designs of included studies varied: descriptive (n = 8); qualitative (n = 4); mixed-methods (n = 2); cross-sectional (n = 1); case report (n = 1); single-group pretest/post-test design (n = 1). Included studies were from North America (n = 10), Africa (n = 4), and Asia (n = 3) and addressed various public health disasters including natural disasters (n = 9), infectious disease epidemics (n = 5), armed conflict (n = 2) and hazardous material disasters (n = 1). Five emergent themes were identified on strategies to support the re-integration of core public health services: a) community engagement, b) community assessment, c) collaborative partnerships and coordination, d) workforce capacity development and allocation, and e) funding/resource enhancement. CONCLUSION: Emergent themes from this study can be used by public health organizations as a beginning understanding of strategies that can support the re-introduction of essential public health services and programs in COVID-19 recovery.

Challenges of Conducting Value Assessment for Comprehensive Genomic Profiling.

OBJECTIVES: Clinical practice is shifting toward an era of precision medicine. The use of comprehensive genomic profiling (CGP) in oncology has broad potential as a universal companion diagnostic for targeted therapies which may significantly improve health outcomes while using healthcare resources more efficiently. Given the nature of this technology, assessing the value of CGP presents unique challenges. METHODS: This paper draws on evidence from the academic and policy literature in oncology, as well as stakeholder interviews (health economists, payers, clinicians, and public policy officials) in countries using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) as part of health technology assessment (HTA). RESULTS: The degree to which CGP is subject to a value assessment varies significantly across healthcare systems. Current HTA processes focus on evaluating diagnostic testing through co-dependent assessment of diagnostic testing and associated therapeutic interventions. Diagnostic tests with multiple associated therapeutic interventions are rapidly evolving and poorly unsuited to current HTA approaches. Moreover, HTA approaches are limited in their ability to consider broader systemic benefits of the expanded diagnostic capabilities and enhanced opportunities for clinical trial participation offered by CGP. CONCLUSIONS: The assessment of the overall value of CGP is limited by the current models of HTA. This paper suggests policy proposals for value assessment and funding reforms to help broaden patient access to CGP. These include investing in genomic testing infrastructure; decoupling the assessment of the value of CGP testing to identifying predetermined therapeutic interventions; tailoring evaluation methodology; and developing approaches to collecting evidence of clinical, healthcare system and societal benefit.

Reverse Total Shoulder Arthroplasty Is the Most Cost-effective Treatment Strategy for Proximal Humerus Fractures in Older Adults: A Cost-utility Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Proximal humerus fractures are the second-most common fragility fracture in older adults. Although reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (RTSA) is a promising treatment strategy for proximal humerus fractures with favorable clinical and quality of life outcomes, it is associated with much higher, and possibly prohibitive, upfront costs relative to nonoperative treatment and other surgical alternatives. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: (1) What is the cost-effectiveness of open reduction internal fixation (ORIF), hemiarthroplasty, and RTSA compared with the nonoperative treatment of complex proximal humerus fractures in adults older than 65 years from the perspective of a single-payer Canadian healthcare system? (2) Which factors, if any, affect the cost-effectiveness of ORIF, hemiarthroplasty, and RTSA compared with nonoperative treatment of proximal humerus fractures including quality of life outcomes, cost, and complication rates after each treatment? METHODS: This cost-utility analysis compared RTSA, hemiarthroplasty, and ORIF with the nonoperative management of complex proximal humerus fractures in adults older than 65 years over a lifetime time horizon from the perspective of a single-payer healthcare system. Short-term and intermediate-term complications in the 2-year postoperative period were modeled using a decision tree, with long-term outcomes estimated through a Markov model. The model was initiated with a cohort of 75-year-old patients who had a diagnosis of a comminuted (three- or four-part) proximal humerus fractures; 90% of the patients were women. The mean age and gender composition of the model's cohort was based on a systematic review conducted as part of this analysis. Patients were managed nonoperatively or surgically with either ORIF, hemiarthroplasty, or RTSA. The three initial surgical treatment options of ORIF, hemiarthroplasty, and RTSA resulted in uncomplicated healing or the development of a complication that would result in a subsequent surgical intervention. The model reflects the complications that result in repeat surgery and that are assumed to have the greatest impact on clinical outcomes and costs. Transition probabilities and health utilities were derived from published sources, with costs (2020 CAD) sourced from regional costing databases. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-utility ratio, which was calculated using expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and costs. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the impact of changing key model parameters. RESULTS: Based on both pairwise and sequential analysis, RTSA was found to be the most cost-effective strategy for managing complex proximal humerus fractures in adults older than 65 years. Compared with nonoperative management, the pairwise incremental cost-utility ratios of hemiarthroplasty and RTSA were CAD 25,759/QALY and CAD 7476/QALY, respectively. ORIF was dominated by nonoperative management, meaning that it was both more costly and less effective. Sequential analysis, wherein interventions are compared from least to most expensive in a pairwise manner, demonstrated ORIF to be dominated by hemiarthroplasty, and hemiarthroplasty to be extendedly dominated by RTSA. Further, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of CAD 50,000/QALY, RTSA had 66% probability of being the most cost-effective treatment option. The results were sensitive to changes in the parameters for the probability of revision RTSA after RTSA, the treatment cost of RTSA, and the health utilities associated with the well state for all treatment options except ORIF, although none of these changes were found to be clinically realistic based on the existing evidence. CONCLUSION: Based on this economic analysis, RTSA is the preferred treatment strategy for complex proximal humerus fractures in adults older than 65 years, despite high upfront costs. Based on the evidence to date, it is unlikely that the parameters this model was sensitive to would change to the degree necessary to alter the model's outcome. A major strength of this model is that it reflects the most recent randomized controlled trials evaluating the management of this condition. Therefore, clinicians should feel confident recommending RTSA for the management of proximal humerus fractures in adults older than 65 years, and they are encouraged to advocate for this intervention as being a cost-effective practice, especially in publicly funded healthcare systems wherein resource stewardship is a core principle. Future high-quality trials should continue to collect both clinical and quality of life outcomes using validated tools such as the EuroQOL-5D to reduce parameter uncertainty and support decision makers in understanding relevant interventions' value for money. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, economic and decision analysis.

Patient characteristics and determinants of CD4 at diagnosis of HIV in Mexico from 2008 to 2017: a 10-year population-based study.

BACKGROUND: In 2007-2012 the Mexican government launched the National HIV program and there was a major change in HIV policies implemented in 2013-2018, when efforts focused on prevention, increase in early diagnosis and timely treatment. Still, late HIV diagnosis is a major concern in Mexico due to its association with the development of AIDS development and mortality. Thus, the objectives of this study were to identify the determinants of late HIV diagnosis (i.e. CD4 count less than 200 cells/mm3) in Mexico from 2008 to 2017 and to evaluate the impact of the 2013-2017 National HIV program. METHODS: Using patient level data from the SALVAR database, which includes 64% of the population receiving HIV care in Mexico, an adjusted logistic model was conducted. Main study outcomes were HIV late diagnosis which was defined as CD4 count less than 200 cells/mm3 at diagnosis. RESULTS: The study included 106,830 individuals newly diagnosed with HIV and treated in Mexican public health facilities between 2008 and 2017 (mean age: 33 years old, 80% male). HIV late diagnosis decreased from 45 to 43% (P < 0.001) between 2008 and 2012 and 2013-2017 (i.e. before and after the implementation of the 2013-2017 policy). Multivariable logistic regressions indicated that being diagnosed between 2013 and 2017 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.96 [95% Confidence interval [CI] [0.93, 0.98]) or in health facilities specialized in HIV care (OR = 0.64 [95% CI 0.60, 0.69]) was associated with early diagnosis. Being male, older than 29 years old, diagnosed in Central East, the South region of Mexico or in high-marginalized locality increased the odds of a late diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that the 2013-2017 National HIV program in Mexico has been marginally successful in decreasing the proportion of individuals with late HIV diagnosis in Mexico. We identified several predictors of late diagnosis which could help establishing health policies. The main determinants for late diagnosis were being male, older than 29 years old, and being diagnosed in a Hospital or National Institute.

Do assisted living facilities that offer a dementia care program differ from those that do not? A population-level cross-sectional study in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Many residents of assisted living facilities live with dementia, but little is known about the characteristics of assisted living facilities that provide specialized care for older adults who live with dementia. In this study, we identify the characteristics of assisted living facilities that offer a dementia care program, compared to those that do not offer such a program. METHODS: We conducted a population-level cross-sectional study on all licensed assisted living facilities in Ontario, Canada in 2018 (n = 738). Facility-level characteristics (e.g., resident and suite capacities, etc.) and the provision of the other 12 provincially regulated care services (e.g., pharmacist and medical services, skin and wound care, etc.) attributed to assisted living facilities were examined. Multivariable Poisson regression with robust standard errors was used to model the characteristics of assisted living facilities associated with the provision of a dementia care program. RESULTS: There were 123 assisted living facilities that offered a dementia care program (16.7% versus 83.3% no dementia care). Nearly half of these facilities had a resident capacity exceeding 140 older adults (44.7% versus 21.6% no dementia care) and more than 115 suites (46.3% versus 20.8% no dementia care). All assisted living facilities that offered a dementia care program also offered nursing services, meals, assistance with bathing and hygiene, and administered medications. After adjustment for facility characteristics and other provincially regulated care services, the prevalence of a dementia care program was nearly three times greater in assisted living facilities that offered assistance with feeding (Prevalence Ratio [PR] 2.91, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.98 to 4.29), and almost twice as great among assisted living facilities that offered medical services (PR 1.78, 95% CI 1.00 to 3.17), compared to those that did not. CONCLUSIONS: A dementia care program was more prevalent in assisted living facilities that housed many older adults, had many suites, and offered at least five of the other 12 regulated care services. Our findings deepen the understanding of specialized care for dementia in assisted living facilities.

Association Between Bariatric Surgery and All-Cause Mortality: A Population-Based Matched Cohort Study in a Universal Health Care System.

BACKGROUND: Mortality after bariatric surgery has been previously studied, but cohort selection bias, completeness of follow-up, and collection of confounders have limited the inference of results. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between bariatric surgery and all-cause mortality. DESIGN: Population-based matched cohort study. SETTING: Ontario, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: 13 679 patients who underwent bariatric surgery from January 2010 to December 2016 and 13 679 matched nonsurgical patients. INTERVENTION: Bariatric surgery. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, with cause-specific mortality as the secondary outcome. Patients were matched according to age, sex, body mass index, and diabetes duration. RESULTS: 13 679 patients who underwent bariatric surgery were matched to 13 679 nonsurgical patients. After a median follow-up of 4.9 years, the overall mortality rate was 1.4% (n = 197) in the surgery group and 2.5% (n = 340) in the nonsurgery group, with a lower adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of overall all-cause mortality (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.57 to 0.81]). Patients aged 55 years or older had an absolute risk reduction of 3.3% (CI, 2.3% to 4.3%), with a lower HR of mortality in the surgery group (HR, 0.53 [CI, 0.41 to 0.69]). Observed relative effects were similar across sex; however, the observed association in absolute terms was greater in men. Surgery also was associated with lower cardiovascular mortality (HR, 0.53 [CI, 0.34 to 0.84]) and lower cancer mortality (HR, 0.54 [CI, 0.36 to 0.80]). LIMITATION: The observational design limits causal inference. CONCLUSION: Bariatric surgery was associated with substantially lower all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality. The lowered observed mortality of surgery was significant across most subgroups. The largest absolute effects were for men and patients aged 55 years or older. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Ontario Bariatric Network.

Mortality in older adults following a fragility fracture: real-world retrospective matched-cohort study in Ontario.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies are lacking reports on mortality after non-hip fractures in adults aged > 65. METHODS: This retrospective, matched-cohort study used de-identified health services data from the publicly funded healthcare system in Ontario, Canada, contained in the ICES Data Repository. Patients aged 66 years and older with an index fragility fracture occurring at any osteoporotic site between 2011 and 2015 were identified from acute hospital admissions, emergency and ambulatory care using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes and data were analyzed until 2017. Thus, follow-up ranged from 2 years to 6 years. Patients were excluded if they presented with an index fracture occurring at a non-osteoporotic fracture site, their index fracture was associated with a trauma code, or they experienced a previous fracture within 5 years prior to their index fracture. This fracture cohort was matched 1:1 to controls within a non-fracture cohort by date, sex, age, geography and comorbidities. All-cause mortality risk was assessed. RESULTS: The survival probability for up to 6 years post-fracture was significantly reduced for the fracture cohort vs matched non-fracture controls (p < 0.0001; n = 101,773 per cohort), with the sharpest decline occurring within the first-year post-fracture. Crude relative risk of mortality (95% confidence interval) within 1-year post-fracture was 2.47 (2.38-2.56) in women and 3.22 (3.06-3.40) in men. In the fracture vs non-fracture cohort, the absolute mortality risk within one year after a fragility fracture occurring at any site was 12.5% vs 5.1% in women and 19.5% vs 6.0% in men. The absolute mortality risk within one year after a fragility fracture occurring at a non-hip vs hip site was 9.4% vs 21.5% in women and 14.4% vs 32.3% in men. CONCLUSIONS: In this real-world cohort aged > 65 years, a fragility fracture occurring at any site was associated with reduced survival for up to 6 years post-fracture. The greatest reduction in survival occurred within the first-year post-fracture, where mortality risk more than doubled and deaths were observed in 1 in 11 women and 1 in 7 men following a non-hip fracture and in 1 in 5 women and 1 in 3 men following a hip fracture.

Fragility fracture identifies patients at imminent risk for subsequent fracture: real-world retrospective database study in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: The secondary fracture prevention gap in the osteoporosis field has been previously described as a 'crisis'. Closing this gap is increasingly important in the context of accumulating evidence showing that an incident fragility fracture is associated with an increased risk of subsequent fracture within 1-2 years, known as imminent fracture risk. The objective of this study was to use health services data to characterize the time between index fragility fractures occurring at different osteoporotic sites and subsequent fractures. METHODS: This retrospective observational study used de-identified health services data from the publicly funded healthcare system in Ontario, the largest province of Canada. Patients aged > 65 with an index fragility fracture occurring between 2011 and 2015 were identified from the ICES Data Repository using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes. We examined median time to subsequent fragility fractures for osteoporotic fracture sites until the end of follow-up (2017). BMD assessment and use of osteoporosis therapies following index fracture were also characterized. RESULTS: Among 115,776 patients with an index fragility fracture, 17.8% incurred a second fragility fracture. Median time between index and second fracture occurring at any site was 555 days (interquartile range: 236-955). For each index fracture site examined, median time from index to second fracture was < 2 years. The proportion of patients with BMD assessment was 10.3% ≤1 year prior to and 16.4% ≤1 year post index fracture. The proportion of patients receiving osteoporosis therapy was 29.8% ≤1 year prior, 34.6% ≤1 year post, and 25.9% > 3 years post index fracture. CONCLUSIONS: This cohort of Canadian patients aged > 65 years who experienced a fragility fracture at any site are at imminent risk of experiencing subsequent fracture within the next 2 years and should be proactively assessed and treated.

Monitoring and evaluation of breast cancer screening programmes: selecting candidate performance indicators.

BACKGROUND: In the scope of the European Commission Initiative on Breast Cancer (ECIBC) the Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) subgroup was tasked to identify breast cancer screening programme (BCSP) performance indicators, including their acceptable and desirable levels, which are associated with breast cancer (BC) mortality. This paper documents the methodology used for the indicator selection. METHODS: The indicators were identified through a multi-stage process. First, a scoping review was conducted to identify existing performance indicators. Second, building on existing frameworks for making well-informed health care choices, a specific conceptual framework was developed to guide the indicator selection. Third, two group exercises including a rating and ranking survey were conducted for indicator selection using pre-determined criteria, such as: relevance, measurability, accurateness, ethics and understandability. The selected indicators were mapped onto a BC screening pathway developed by the M&E subgroup to illustrate the steps of BC screening common to all EU countries. RESULTS: A total of 96 indicators were identified from an initial list of 1325 indicators. After removing redundant and irrelevant indicators and adding those missing, 39 candidate indicators underwent the rating and ranking exercise. Based on the results, the M&E subgroup selected 13 indicators: screening coverage, participation rate, recall rate, breast cancer detection rate, invasive breast cancer detection rate, cancers > 20 mm, cancers ≤10 mm, lymph node status, interval cancer rate, episode sensitivity, time interval between screening and first treatment, benign open surgical biopsy rate, and mastectomy rate. CONCLUSION: This systematic approach led to the identification of 13 BCSP candidate performance indicators to be further evaluated for their association with BC mortality.