Neonatal mortality in Ethiopia: trends and determinants.

BACKGROUND: The Ethiopian neonatal mortality rate constitutes 42% of under-5 deaths. We aimed to examine the trends and determinants of Ethiopian neonatal mortality. METHODS: We analyzed the birth history information of live births from the 2000, 2005 and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). We used simple linear regression analyses to examine trends in neonatal mortality rates and a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model using a hierarchical approach to examine the associated factors. RESULTS: The neonatal mortality rate declined by 1.9% per annum from 1995 to 2010, logarithmically. The early neonatal mortality rate declined by 0.9% per annum and was where 74% of the neonatal deaths occurred. Using multivariate analyses, increased neonatal mortality risk was associated with male sex (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.38; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.23 - 1.55); neonates born to mothers aged < 18 years (HR = 1.41; 95% CI, 1.15 - 1.72); and those born within 2 years of the preceding birth (HR = 2.19; 95% CI, 1.89 - 2.51). Winter birth increased the risk of dying compared with spring births (HR = 1.28; 95% CI, 1.08 - 1.51). Giving two Tetanus Toxoid Injections (TTI) to the mothers before childbirth decreased neonatal mortality risk (HR = 0.44; 95% CI, 0.36 - 0.54). Neonates born to women with secondary or higher schooling vs. no education had a lower risk of dying (HR = 0.68; 95% CI, 0.49 - 0.95). Compared with neonates in Addis Ababa, neonates in Amhara (HR: 1.88; 95% CI: 1.26 - 2.83), Benishangul Gumuz (HR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.15 - 2.67) and Tigray (HR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.01 - 2.34) regions carried a significantly higher risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: Neonatal mortality must decline more rapidly to achieve the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 target for under-5 mortality in Ethiopia. Strategies to address neonatal survival require a multifaceted approach that encompasses health-related and other measures. Addressing short birth interval and preventing early pregnancy must be considered as interventions. Programs must improve the coverage of TTI and prevention of hypothermia for winter births should be given greater emphasis. Strategies to improve neonatal survival must address inequalities in neonatal mortality by women's education and region.

Burial surveillance detected significant reduction in HIV--related deaths in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the level of HIV-related mortality reduction after the introduction of large-scale antiretroviral therapy (ART) using a burial surveillance system coupled with verbal autopsy (VA) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: Prospective burial surveillance was established in 2001 at cemeteries in Addis Ababa. VA interviews were periodically conducted on a random sample of adult burials registered between 2001 and 2009. Independent physicians reviewed the completed VA questionnaires and assigned underlying causes of death. The period before 2005 was defined as pre-ART and that since 2005 as the ART era. HIV-specific mortality fractions were calculated by age, sex and year of burial to examine the mortality trends before and during the ART era. RESULTS: Of the 4239 VA physician diagnoses, 1087 (25.6%) were ascribed to HIV-related deaths. HIV-related deaths in 2009 were 33% fewer than in 2001. The proportion of HIV-related deaths was reduced from 44.0% in the pre-ART period to 20.0% in the ART era. Mortality in women (36.7%) declined more than in men (30%). A marked reduction in HIV-specific mortality was observed in the age group 30-39 years (from 69.1% pre-ART to 46.8% during ART era) compared to 20-29 (from 60.5% pre-ART to 41.0% during ART) and 40-49 year olds (49.7%) pre-ART to 34.4% during ART provision). CONCLUSION: Burial surveillance combined with VA demonstrated a significant reduction in HIV-related deaths during the provision of free ART. Replication of burial surveillance is recommended in similar settings, where a vital registration system is non-existent, to track large-scale population-level interventions.

Evaluating the InterVA model for determining AIDS mortality from verbal autopsies in the adult population of Addis Ababa.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of a verbal autopsy (VA) expert algorithm (the InterVA model) for diagnosing AIDS mortality against a reference standard from hospital records that include HIV serostatus information in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: Verbal autopsies were conducted for 193 individuals who visited a hospital under surveillance during terminal illness. Decedent admission diagnosis and HIV serostatus information are used to construct two reference standards (AIDS vs. other causes of death and TB/AIDS vs. other causes). The InterVA model is used to interpret the VA interviews; and the sensitivity, specificity and cause-specific mortality fractions are calculated as indicators of the diagnostic accuracy of the InterVA model. RESULTS: The sensitivity and specificity of the InterVA model for diagnosing AIDS are 0.82 (95% CI: 0.74-0.89) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64-0.86), respectively. The sensitivity and specificity for TB/AIDS are 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63-0.89), respectively. The AIDS-specific mortality fraction estimated by the model is 61.7% (95% CI: 54-69%), which is close to 64.7% (95% CI: 57-72%) in the reference standard. The TB/AIDS mortality fraction estimated by the model is 73.6% (95% CI: 67-80%), compared to 74.1% (95% CI: 68-81%) in the reference standard. CONCLUSION: The InterVA model is an easy to use and cheap alternative to physician review for assessing AIDS mortality in populations without vital registration and medical certification of causes of death. The model seems to perform better when TB and AIDS are combined, but the sample is too small to statistically confirm that.

Effect on Neonatal Mortality of Newborn Infection Management at Health Posts When Referral Is Not Possible: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Rural Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recently provided guidelines for outpatient treatment of possible severe bacterial infections (PSBI) in young infants, when referral to hospital is not feasible. This study evaluated newborn infection treatment at the most peripheral level of the health system in rural Ethiopia. METHODS: We performed a cluster-randomized trial in 22 geographical clusters (11 allocated to intervention, 11 to control). In both arms, volunteers and government-employed Health Extension Workers (HEWs) conducted home visits to pregnant and newly delivered mothers; assessed newborns; and counseled caregivers on prevention of newborn illness, danger signs, and care seeking. Volunteers referred sick newborns to health posts for further assessment; HEWs referred newborns with PSBI signs to health centers. In the intervention arm only, between July 2011 and June 2013, HEWs treated newborns with PSBI with intramuscular gentamicin and oral amoxicillin for 7 days at health posts when referral to health centers was not possible or acceptable to caregivers. Intervention communities were informed of treatment availability at health posts to encourage care seeking. Masking was not feasible. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality of newborns 2-27 days after birth, measured by household survey data. Baseline data were collected between June 2008 and May 2009; endline data, between February 2013 and June 2013. We sought to detect a 33% mortality reduction. Analysis was by intention to treat. (ClinicalTrials.gov registry: NCT00743691). RESULTS: Of 1,011 sick newborns presenting at intervention health posts, 576 (57%) were identified by HEWs as having at least 1 PSBI sign; 90% refused referral and were treated at the health post, with at least 79% completing the antibiotic regimen. Estimated treatment coverage at health posts was in the region of 50%. Post-day 1 neonatal mortality declined more in the intervention arm (17.9 deaths per 1,000 live births at baseline vs. 9.4 per 1,000 at endline) than the comparison arm (14.4 per 1,000 vs. 11.2 per 1,000, respectively). After adjusting for baseline mortality and region, the estimated post-day 1 mortality risk ratio was 0.83, but the result was not statistically significant (95% confidence interval, 0.55 to 1.24; P=.33). INTERPRETATION: When referral to higher levels of care is not possible, HEWs can deliver outpatient antibiotic treatment of newborns with PSBI, but estimated treatment coverage in a rural Ethiopian setting was only around 50%. While our data suggest a mortality reduction consistent with that which might be expected at this level of coverage, they do not provide conclusive results.