Cost-effectiveness of noninvasive liver fibrosis tests for treatment decisions in patients with chronic hepatitis B in the UK: systematic review and economic evaluation.

We compared the cost-effectiveness of various noninvasive tests (NITs) in patients with chronic hepatitis B and elevated transaminases and/or viral load who would normally undergo liver biopsy to inform treatment decisions. We searched various databases until April 2012. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to calculate the diagnostic accuracy of various NITs using a bivariate random-effects model. We constructed a probabilistic decision analytical model to estimate health care costs and outcomes quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) using data from the meta-analysis, literature, and national UK data. We compared the cost-effectiveness of four decision-making strategies: testing with NITs and treating patients with fibrosis stage ≥F2, testing with liver biopsy and treating patients with ≥F2, treat none (watchful waiting) and treat all irrespective of fibrosis. Treating all patients without prior fibrosis assessment had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £28,137 per additional QALY gained for HBeAg-negative patients. For HBeAg-positive patients, using Fibroscan was the most cost-effective option with an ICER of £23,345. The base case results remained robust in the majority of sensitivity analyses, but were sensitive to changes in the ≥ F2 prevalence and the benefit of treatment in patients with F0-F1. For HBeAg-negative patients, strategies excluding NITs were the most cost-effective: treating all patients regardless of fibrosis level if the high cost-effectiveness threshold of £30,000 is accepted; watchful waiting if not. For HBeAg-positive patients, using Fibroscan to identify and treat those with ≥F2 was the most cost-effective option.

Geoepidemiology and space-time analysis of Primary biliary cirrhosis in Crete, Greece.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prevalence of Primary biliary cirrhosis varies in different geographical areas. This might reflect genetic or environmental risk factors. We aimed to define Primary biliary cirrhosis prevalence and incidence, describe patient's spatial distribution, generate prediction maps and detect any possible routing pattern of time-spatial appearance of the disease in Crete, Greece. METHODS: From 1990-2010, 245 Primary biliary cirrhosis patients diagnosed and followed up at the Gastroenterology Department of the University Hospital and the District Hospitals of the island, were contacted and 222 were included in the time-spatial analysis. To map their spatial distribution per 5-year periods, geospatial models were applied in Gis-ArcMap 9.3 software. Kriging Interpolation methods were used to generate prediction maps for the disease in Crete. Areas of high and low probability of disease occurrence were estimated through multicriteria modelling. The disease route was defined by Gis-ArcMap's toolbox. RESULTS: Prevalence was found to be 365 cases per million, with a mean incidence of 20.88 (range 3.79-35.99). Prediction map estimates from 1.22 to 11 patients per 50 km2 all over Crete. Areas of high risk of disease occurrence are located in the Eastern part, while low risk in the Western part of the island. DISCUSSION: Prevalence and incidence of Primary biliary cirrhosis in Crete are among the higher published in Europe. Given the homogeneous and stable study population and the geopolitics of the island, the heterogeneity in the time-spatial distribution and the route of disease appearance strongly suggest a role for environmental causative agents.

Hoarseness as imminent symptom of aortic aneurysm rupture (Ortner's syndrome).

Ortner's syndrome (cardiovocal syndrome) is the clinical entity of hoarseness due to left recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy caused by cardiovascular disease. We present a case of an 86-year-old woman with hoarseness as a prominent symptom due to a large painless aneurysm of the thoracic aorta, which soon ruptured. Cardiovocal syndrome can be a rare but an important and probably the only major clinical finding of a painless aortic rupture.

Nine scoring models for short-term mortality in alcoholic hepatitis: cross-validation in a biopsy-proven cohort.

BACKGROUND: Several prognostic models have emerged in alcoholic hepatitis (AH), but lack of external validation precludes their universal use. AIM: To validate the Maddrey Discriminant Function (DF); Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS); Mayo End-stage Liver Disease (MELD); Age, Bilirubin, INR, Creatinine (ABIC); MELD-Na, UK End-stage Liver Disease (UKELD), and three scores of corticosteroid response at 1 week: an Early Change in Bilirubin Levels (ECBL), a 25% fall in bilirubin, and the Lille score. METHODS: Seventy-one consecutive patients with biopsy-proven AH, admitted between November 2007-September 2011, were evaluated. The clinical and biochemical parameters were analysed to assess prognostic models with respect to 30- and 90-day mortality. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in the areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCs) relative to 30-day/90-day mortality: MELD 0.79/0.84, DF 0.71/0.74, GAHS 0.75/0.78, ABIC 0.71/0.78, MELD-Na 0.68/0.76, UKELD 0.56/0.68. One-week rescoring yielded a trend towards improved predictive accuracies (30-day/90-day AUROCs: 0.69­0.84/0.77­0.86). In patients with admission DF ≥ 32 (n = 31), response to corticosteroids according to ECBL, 25% fall in bilirubin and the Lille model yielded AUROCs of 0.73/0.73, 0.78/0.72 and 0.81/0.82 for a 30-day/90-day outcome respectively. All models showed excellent negative predictive values (NPVs; range: 86­100%), while the positive ones were low (range: 17­50%). CONCLUSIONS: MELD, DF, GAHS, ABIC and scores of corticosteroid response proved to be valid in an independent cohort of biopsy-proven alcoholic hepatitis. MELD modifications incorporating sodium did not confer any prognostic advantage over classical MELD. Based on excellent NPVs, the models are best to identify patients at low risk of death.

Biochemical criteria at 1 year are not robust indicators of response to ursodeoxycholic acid in early primary biliary cirrhosis: results from a 29-year cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), biochemical criteria at 1 year are considered surrogates of response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). However, due to the slow natural history of PBC, evaluation at 1 year may be suboptimal to assess the therapeutic response, particularly in early disease. AIM: To determine whether evaluation of biochemical criteria at 1 year is a reliable surrogate of UDCA response in early PBC. METHODS: We analysed the prospectively collected data of 215 patients (untreated = 129; UDCA-treated = 86) with early PBC (normal baseline bilirubin/albumin) and a median follow-up of 8 years (range: 1-29.1). The 1-year attainment rates of the Barcelona, Paris-I, Paris-II and Toronto definitions, and their predictive relevance for a poor outcome (death, transplantation, complications of cirrhosis), were assessed either as a result of UDCA or no treatment. Independent associations with attaining each UDCA response definition were identified by multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Untreated patients displayed 1-year biochemical features compatible with 'treatment response' at rates (Barcelona: 36.4%, Paris-I: 66.7%, Toronto: 59.7%, Paris-II: 40.3%) similar to those obtained under UDCA. Depending on the definition, baseline ALP≤3xULN (OR: 4.80-35.90), AST≤2xULN (OR: 5.63-9.34) and early histological stage (OR: 3.67-3.87) were the stronger predictors for attaining the criteria. UDCA treatment was associated with attaining Barcelona (OR = 2.16) and Paris-II (OR = 2.84), but not Paris-I, and not Toronto definition when excluding late histological cases. Paris-I criteria were significantly predictive of long-term outcomes (HR = 2.83) in untreated patients. CONCLUSIONS: In early PBC, biochemical criteria at 1 year reflect severity of the disease rather than the therapeutic response to UDCA.