Cost-effectiveness of noninvasive liver fibrosis tests for treatment decisions in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

UNLABELLED: The cost-effectiveness of noninvasive tests (NITs) as alternatives to liver biopsy is unknown. We compared the cost-effectiveness of using NITs to inform treatment decisions in adult patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to calculate the diagnostic accuracy of various NITs using a bivariate random-effects model. We constructed a probabilistic decision analytical model to estimate health care costs and outcomes (quality-adjusted life-years; QALYs) using data from the meta-analysis, literature, and national UK data. We compared the cost-effectiveness of four treatment strategies: testing with NITs and treating patients with fibrosis stage≥F2; testing with liver biopsy and treating patients with ≥F2; treat none; and treat all irrespective of fibrosis. We compared all NITs and tested the cost-effectiveness using current triple therapy with boceprevir or telaprevir, but also modeled new, more-potent antivirals. Treating all patients without any previous NIT was the most effective strategy and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £9,204 per additional QALY gained. The exploratory analysis of currently licensed sofosbuvir treatment regimens found that treat all was cost-effective, compared to using an NIT to decide on treatment, with an ICER of £16,028 per QALY gained. The exploratory analysis to assess the possible effect on results of new treatments, found that if SVR rates increased to >90% for genotypes 1-4, the incremental treatment cost threshold for the "treat all" strategy to remain the most cost-effective strategy would be £37,500. Above this threshold, the most cost-effective option would be noninvasive testing with magnetic resonance elastography (ICER=£9,189). CONCLUSIONS: Treating all adult patients with CHC, irrespective of fibrosis stage, is the most cost-effective strategy with currently available drugs in developed countries.

Comparison of total cortisol, free cortisol, and surrogate markers of free cortisol in diagnosis of adrenal insufficiency in patients with stable cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Measurements of serum levels of total cortisol can overestimate the prevalence of adrenal dysfunction in patients with cirrhosis because they have low concentrations of corticosteroid-binding globulin and albumin. We used measurements of serum total cortisol and serum free cortisol after the low-dose short Synacthen test (LDSST) to assess adrenal dysfunction. METHODS: We studied 79 patients with stable cirrhosis; adrenal dysfunction was defined by peak concentrations of total cortisol ≤494 mmol/L and/or peak concentrations of free cortisol ≤33 nmol/L after the LDSST. We determined free cortisol index (FCI) scores and calculated free cortisol levels by using Coolens' equation. The Cox regression model was used to assess the relationship between adrenal dysfunction and outcomes (death or liver transplant). RESULTS: On the basis of measurement of total cortisol, 34% of patients had adrenal dysfunction, and on the basis of measurement of free cortisol, 29% had adrenal dysfunction. There was agreement between total cortisol and free cortisol levels in 22% of patients; in 13%, adrenal dysfunction was diagnosed only on the basis of total cortisol and in 6% only on the basis of free cortisol (κ coefficient, 0.56; P < .01). Low concentrations of corticosteroid-binding globulin (21 vs 54 µg/mL, P < .01) led to an overestimation of adrenal dysfunction that was based on measurement of total cortisol. Measurements of calculated free cortisol constantly overestimated free cortisol concentrations, with variations as large as 87% for baseline values and up to 84% after stimulation. Adrenal insufficiency, defined by FCI scores <12, was detected in 30% of patients; among them, 23% also had subnormal peak levels of free cortisol (κ coefficient, 0.70; P < .001). Adrenal dysfunction was not significantly associated with patient outcomes, on the basis of Cox model analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Adrenal insufficiency, defined by LDSST, is frequent in patients with stable cirrhosis, on the basis of measurements of total and free cortisol. FCI scores are better than measurement of total cortisol in assessing adrenal function in patients with cirrhosis. We did not associate adrenal dysfunction with outcome, but further studies are needed.

Embolization of large spontaneous portosystemic shunts for refractory hepatic encephalopathy: a multicenter survey on safety and efficacy.

UNLABELLED: Refractory hepatic encephalopathy (HE) remains a major cause of morbidity in cirrhosis patients. Large spontaneous portosystemic shunts (SPSSs) have been previously suggested to sustain HE in these patients. We aimed to retrospectively assess the efficacy and safety of patients treated with embolization of large SPSSs for the treatment of chronic therapy-refractory HE in a European multicentric working group and to identify patients who may benefit from this procedure. Between July 1998 and January 2012, 37 patients (Child A6-C13, MELD [Model of Endstage Liver Disease] 5-28) with refractory HE were diagnosed with single large SPSSs that were considered eligible for embolization. On a short-term basis (i.e., within 100 days after embolization), 22 out of 37 patients (59.4%) were free of HE (P < 0.001 versus before embolization) of which 18 (48.6% of patients overall) remained HE-free over a mean follow-up period of 697 ± 157 days (P < 0.001 versus before embolization). Overall, we noted improved autonomy, decreased number of hospitalizations, and severity of the worst HE episode after embolization in three-quarters of the patients. Logistic regression identified the MELD score as strongest positive predictive factor of HE recurrence with a cutoff of 11 for patient selection. As to safety, we noted one major nonlethal procedure-related complication. There was no significant increase in de novo development or aggravation of preexisting varices, portal hypertensive gastropathy, or ascites. CONCLUSION: This multicenter European cohort study demonstrated a role for large SPSSs in chronic protracted or recurrent HE and substantiated the effectiveness and safety of embolization of these shunts, provided there is sufficient functional liver reserve.

Early tacrolimus exposure after liver transplantation: relationship with moderate/severe acute rejection and long-term outcome.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver transplant (LT) patients might be overimmunosuppressed as recommendations for tacrolimus trough concentrations (TC) within 4-6 weeks after liver transplantation are set too high (10-15 ng/ml). Early tacrolimus exposure was evaluated in relation to acute rejection and long-term outcomes. METHODS: Four hundred and ninety-three consecutive LT patients receiving tacrolimus as primary immunosuppression (1995-2008) were analyzed. Acute rejection was diagnosed using protocol biopsies at day 6.1 ± 2.5. Median follow-up was 7.3 years (IQR 3.9-10.5). Early tacrolimus exposure (<15 days) was evaluated against moderate/severe acute rejection, chronic rejection, graft loss, chronic renal impairment and mortality using multiple logistic and Cox regression. RESULTS: Maintenance immunosuppression was tacrolimus monotherapy (48.1%), double therapy combination with antimetabolites or steroids (18%), or triple therapy combination with antimetabolites and steroids (33.9%). Histological grade of acute rejection was moderate in 157 cases (31.8%) and severe in 19 cases (3.9%). Tacrolimus TC>7 ng/ml on the day of protocol biopsy was associated with less moderate/severe rejection (23.8%) compared with<7 ng/ml (41.2%) (p = 0.004). Mean tacrolimus TC 7-10 ng/ml within 15 days after LT were associated with reduced risk of graft loss (RR = 0.46; p = 0.014) compared to TC 10-15 ng/ml. A peak TC>20 ng/ml within this period was independently related to higher mortality (RR = 1.67; p = 0.005), particularly due to cardiovascular events, infections and malignancy (RR = 2.15; p = 0.001). Early tacrolimus exposure did not influence chronic rejection (p = 0.58), or chronic renal impairment (p = 0.25). CONCLUSIONS: During the first 2 weeks after LT, tacrolimus TC between 7 and 10 ng/ml are safe in terms of acute rejection and are associated with longer graft survival.

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis: a prospective Greek multicenter study of its epidemiology, microbiology, and outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is an ominous complication of decompensated cirrhosis. This study aimed to assess several epidemiological, clinical, microbiological and outcome characteristics in Greek patients with SBP, as no solid representative nationwide data of this type was available. METHODS: During a 3-year period, 77 consecutive patients with SBP (61 male; median age: 67 years; model for end-stage liver disease [MELD] score: 20), diagnosed and followed in 5 tertiary liver units, were prospectively recruited and studied. Various prognostic factors for disease outcome were studied. RESULTS: Thirty-eight patients had alcohol-related cirrhosis, 17 viral hepatitis, 6 non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, 6 autoimmune liver diseases, and 10 cryptogenic cirrhosis. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was present in 23 (29.9%), whereas 10 (13%) had portal vein thrombosis. The first SBP episode at baseline was community-acquired in 53 (68.8%), while in 24 (31.1%) was hospital-acquired, with predominant symptoms abdominal pain and encephalopathy. A positive ascitic culture was documented in 36% of patients in the initial episode, with almost equal gram (+) and gram (-) pathogens, including 3 multidrug-resistant pathogens. Significant factors for 6-month survival were: higher MELD score, previous b-blocker use, lower serum albumin, higher lactate on admission and need for vasopressors, while factors for 12-month survival were MELD score and lactate. For overall survival, higher MELD score and lactate along with HCC presence were negative predictive factors. CONCLUSIONS: MELD score, lactate, albumin, HCC and treatment with vasopressors were predictive of survival in SBP patients. In hospital-acquired SBP the prevalence of difficult-to-treat pathogens was higher.

Hepascore and hyaluronic acid as markers of fibrosis in liver disease of mixed aetiology.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate hyaluronic acid (HA) and Hepascore as diagnostic replacements for liver biopsy in a population with mixed liver disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The utility of HA concentration and Hepascore for staging fibrosis, detecting any fibrosis and detecting advanced fibrosis, was assessed in 73 consecutive patients, with varied liver pathologies requiring biopsy. Subgroup analyses compared utility of disease-specific and universal cut-offs for HA and Hepascore. RESULTS: Forty-one patients (56.2%) had liver fibrosis on biopsy. HA and Hepascore varied significantly with METAVIR stage, although ranges overlapped, precluding their use in staging fibrosis. When detecting any fibrosis (METAVIR F1-F4), HA and Hepascore had areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.63 and 0.66, respectively, and approximately two-thirds of patients were correctly categorized using optimal cut-offs. For detection of advanced fibrosis (METAVIR F3/4), HA and Hepascore had areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.81 and 0.80, respectively, and three-quarters of patients were correctly categorized using optimal cut-offs. In subgroup analysis, locally derived, disease-specific cut-offs in hepatitis C virus patients yielded greatest diagnostic efficiency, whereas the tests performed worst in cryptogenic aetiologies. CONCLUSION: HA and Hepascore cannot accurately stage hepatic fibrosis in this population. Locally derived, disease-specific cut-offs for HA gave the higher diagnostic efficiency observed. Although HA and Hepascore may be useful where the disease aetiology is known, particularly in established hepatitis C virus, the high cost of false positives and false negatives are such that neither a reliable enough to replace biopsy without substantial further characterization.

Cost-effectiveness of non-invasive methods for assessment and monitoring of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease: systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Liver biopsy is the reference standard for diagnosing the extent of fibrosis in chronic liver disease; however, it is invasive, with the potential for serious complications. Alternatives to biopsy include non-invasive liver tests (NILTs); however, the cost-effectiveness of these needs to be established. OBJECTIVE: To assess the diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of NILTs in patients with chronic liver disease. DATA SOURCES: We searched various databases from 1998 to April 2012, recent conference proceedings and reference lists. METHODS: We included studies that assessed the diagnostic accuracy of NILTs using liver biopsy as the reference standard. Diagnostic studies were assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Meta-analysis was conducted using the bivariate random-effects model with correlation between sensitivity and specificity (whenever possible). Decision models were used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the NILTs. Expected costs were estimated using a NHS perspective and health outcomes were measured as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Markov models were developed to estimate long-term costs and QALYs following testing, and antiviral treatment where indicated, for chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and chronic hepatitis C (HCV). NILTs were compared with each other, sequential testing strategies, biopsy and strategies including no testing. For alcoholic liver disease (ALD), we assessed the cost-effectiveness of NILTs in the context of potentially increasing abstinence from alcohol. Owing to a lack of data and treatments specifically for fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), the analysis was limited to an incremental cost per correct diagnosis. An analysis of NILTs to identify patients with cirrhosis for increased monitoring was also conducted. RESULTS: Given a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY, treating everyone with HCV without prior testing was cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £9204. This was robust in most sensitivity analyses but sensitive to the extent of treatment benefit for patients with mild fibrosis. For HBV [hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative)] this strategy had an ICER of £28,137, which was cost-effective only if the upper bound of the standard UK cost-effectiveness threshold range (£30,000) is acceptable. For HBeAg-positive disease, two NILTs applied sequentially (hyaluronic acid and magnetic resonance elastography) were cost-effective at a £20,000 threshold (ICER: £19,612); however, the results were highly uncertain, with several test strategies having similar expected outcomes and costs. For patients with ALD, liver biopsy was the cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of £822. LIMITATIONS: A substantial number of tests had only one study from which diagnostic accuracy was derived; therefore, there is a high risk of bias. Most NILTs did not have validated cut-offs for diagnosis of specific fibrosis stages. The findings of the ALD model were dependent on assuptions about abstinence rates assumptions and the modelling approach for NAFLD was hindered by the lack of evidence on clinically effective treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Treating everyone without NILTs is cost-effective for patients with HCV, but only for HBeAg-negative if the higher cost-effectiveness threshold is appropriate. For HBeAg-positive, two NILTs applied sequentially were cost-effective but highly uncertain. Further evidence for treatment effectiveness is required for ALD and NAFLD. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42011001561. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.