Recommendations for the conduct of economic evaluations in osteoporosis: outcomes of an experts' consensus meeting organized by the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases (ESCEO) and the US branch of the International Osteoporosis Foundation.

Economic evaluations are increasingly used to assess the value of health interventions, but variable quality and heterogeneity limit the use of these evaluations by decision-makers. These recommendations provide guidance for the design, conduct, and reporting of economic evaluations in osteoporosis to improve their transparency, comparability, and methodologic standards. INTRODUCTION: This paper aims to provide recommendations for the conduct of economic evaluations in osteoporosis in order to improve their transparency, comparability, and methodologic standards. METHODS: A working group was convened by the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis to make recommendations for the design, conduct, and reporting of economic evaluations in osteoporosis, to define an osteoporosis-specific reference case to serve a minimum standard for all economic analyses in osteoporosis, to discuss methodologic challenges and initiate a call for research. A literature review, a face-to-face meeting in New York City (including 11 experts), and a review/approval by a larger group of experts worldwide (including 23 experts in total) were conducted. RESULTS: Recommendations on the type of economic evaluation, methods for economic evaluation, modeling aspects, base-case analysis and population, excess mortality, fracture costs and disutility, treatment characteristics, and model validation were provided. Recommendations for reporting economic evaluations in osteoporosis were also made and an osteoporosis-specific checklist was designed that includes items to report when performing an economic evaluation in osteoporosis. Further, 12 minimum criteria for economic evaluations in osteoporosis were identified and 12 methodologic challenges and need for further research were discussed. CONCLUSION: While the working group acknowledges challenges and the need for further research, these recommendations are intended to supplement general and national guidelines for economic evaluations, improve transparency, quality, and comparability of economic evaluations in osteoporosis, and maintain methodologic standards to increase their use by decision-makers.

Preoperative breast MRI and mortality in older women with breast cancer.

PURPOSE: The survival benefit from detecting additional breast cancers by preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) continues to be controversial. METHODS: We followed a cohort of 4454 women diagnosed with non-metastatic breast cancer (stage I-III) from 2/2005-6/2010 in five registries of the breast cancer surveillance consortium (BCSC). BCSC clinical and registry data were linked to Medicare claims and enrollment data. We estimated the cumulative probability of breast cancer-specific and all-cause mortality. We tested the association of preoperative MRI with all-cause mortality using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: 917 (20.6%) women underwent preoperative MRI. No significant difference in the cumulative probability of breast cancer-specific mortality was found. We observed no significant difference in the hazard of all-cause mortality during the follow-up period after adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors among women with MRI (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.72-1.12) compared to those without MRI. CONCLUSION: Our findings of no breast cancer-specific or all-cause mortality benefit supplement prior results that indicate a lack of improvement in surgical outcomes associated with use of preoperative MRI. In combination with other reports, the results of this analysis highlight the importance of exploring the benefit of preoperative MRI in patient-reported outcomes such as women's decision quality and confidence levels with decisions involving treatment choices.

Impact of prescription drugs on second fragility fractures among US Medicare patients.

Drugs that increase the risk of fracture are commonly prescribed to survivors of a fragility fracture. This study shows that starting new high-risk medications after fracture increases the risk of a second, potentially preventable fracture. For most drug classes, however, it is safe to continue medications taken before the fracture. INTRODUCTION: Most patients who survive a fragility fracture are subsequently exposed to prescription drugs that have been linked to increased fracture risk. This study was designed to quantify the extent to which current prescribing practices result in potentially preventable second fractures. METHODS: We analyzed a cohort of 138,526 Medicare beneficiaries who returned to the community after a fragility fracture. Post-fracture drug use was defined using retail pharmacy fills. The risk of second fracture associated with individual drug classes was analyzed using Cox proportional hazard models. Data were further analyzed to determine whether there is a difference in risk between continuing previous therapy and initiating new therapy after fracture. RESULTS: Many drug classes previously identified as increasing fracture risk were not associated with increased fracture risk in this cohort. Discontinuing therapy at the time of fracture was only beneficial for patients taking selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors; however, initiating therapy in previous non-users increased second fracture risk for five classes of drugs (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, tricyclic antidepressants, antipsychotics, proton pump inhibitors, and non-benzodiazepine hypnotics). CONCLUSION: Discontinuing high-risk drugs after fracture was not generally protective against subsequent fractures. Preventing the addition of new medications may result in greater improvements in post-fracture care.

Quality of life for up to 18 months after low-energy hip, vertebral, and distal forearm fractures-results from the ICUROS.

This study used data from the International Costs and Utilities Related to Osteoporotic fractures Study (ICUROS) to estimate the quality of life (QoL) impact of fracture. Hip, vertebral, and distal forearm fractures incur substantial QoL losses. Hip and vertebral fracture results in markedly impaired QoL for at least 18 months. INTRODUCTION: The International Costs and Utilities Related to Osteoporotic fractures Study (ICUROS) is a multinational observational study that aims to describe costs and quality of life (QoL) consequences of osteoporotic fractures. To date, 11 countries have participated in the study: Australia, Austria, Estonia, France, Italy, Lithuania, Mexico, Russia, Spain, the UK, and the USA. The objective of this paper is to describe the QoL impact of hip, vertebral, and distal forearm fracture. METHODS: Data were collected at four time-points for five QoL point estimates: within 2 weeks after fracture (including pre-fracture recall) and at 4, 12, and 18 months after fracture. Quality of life was measured as health state utility values (HSUVs) derived from the EQ-5D-3L. Complete case analysis was conducted as the base case with available case and multiple imputation performed as sensitivity analyses. Multivariate analysis was performed to explore predictors of QoL impact of fracture. RESULTS: Among 5456 patients enrolled using convenience sampling, 3021 patients were eligible for the base case analysis (1415 hip, 1047 distal forearm, and 559 vertebral fractures). The mean (SD) difference between HSUV before and after fracture for hip, vertebral, and distal forearm fracture was estimated at 0.89 (0.40), 0.67 (0.45), and 0.48 (0.34), respectively (p < 0.001 for all fracture types). Eighteen months after fracture, mean HSUVs were lower than before the fracture in patients with hip fracture (0.66 vs. 0.77 p < 0.001) and vertebral fracture (0.70 vs. 0.83 p < 0.001). Hospitalization and higher recalled pre-fracture QoL were associated with increased QoL impact for all fracture types. CONCLUSIONS: Hip, vertebral, and distal forearm fractures incur substantial loss in QoL and for patients with hip or vertebral fracture, QoL is markedly impaired for at least 18 months.

Temporal trends in healthcare utilization following primary melanoma diagnosis among Medicare beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the impact of primary melanoma diagnosis on healthcare utilization and changes in utilization over time. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate population-based temporal trends in healthcare utilization following primary melanoma diagnosis. METHODS: We conducted a before-and-after multiple time series study of Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥ 66 years with primary melanoma diagnoses between 2000 and 2009 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Medicare database. Primary exposure was time from primary melanoma diagnosis at 3-6 months and 6-24 months postdiagnosis. Covariates included tumour-, patient- and geographical-level characteristics and healthcare utilization in the 6 months before diagnosis. Poisson regression was used to estimate population-based risk-adjusted utilization rates for skin biopsies, benign skin excisions, internal medicine office visits and dermatology office visits. RESULTS: The study population included 56 254 patients with first diagnoses of primary melanoma. Most patients were ≥ 75 years old (56·8%), male (62·1%), and had in situ melanoma (42·4%) or localized invasive melanoma (45·9%). From 2000 to 2009, risk-adjusted skin biopsy rates 24 months postdiagnosis increased from 358·3 to 541·3 per 1000 person-years (P < 0·001), and dermatology visits increased from 989·0 to 1535·6 per 1000 person-years (P < 0·001). Benign excisions and internal medicine visits remained stable. In 2000, risk-adjusted skin biopsy rates 6 months postdiagnosis increased by 208·5 relative to the 6 months before diagnosis (148·7 vs. 357·2) compared with an observed absolute increase of 272·5 (290·9 vs. 563·1) in 2009. Trends in dermatology visits were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Utilization of skin biopsies and dermatology office visits following primary melanoma diagnosis has increased substantially over time. These results may inform optimization of care delivery for melanoma within the Medicare population.

Skin biopsy utilization and melanoma incidence among Medicare beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma incidence has increased in recent decades in the U.S.A. Uncertainty remains regarding how much of this increase is attributable to greater melanoma screening activities, potential detection bias and overdiagnosis. OBJECTIVES: To use a cross-sectional ecological analysis to evaluate the relationship between skin biopsy and melanoma incidence rates over a more recent time period than prior reports. METHODS: Examination of the association of biopsy rates and melanoma incidence (invasive and in situ) in SEER-Medicare data (including 10 states) for 2002-2009. RESULTS: The skin biopsy rate increased by approximately 50% (6% per year) throughout this 8-year period, from 7012 biopsies per 100 000 persons in 2002 to 10 528 biopsies per 100 000 persons in 2009. The overall melanoma incidence rate increased approximately 4% (< 1% per year) over the same time period. The incidence of melanoma in situ increased approximately 10% (1% per year), while the incidence of invasive melanoma increased from 2002 to 2005 then decreased from 2006 to 2009. Regression models estimated that, on average, for every 1000 skin biopsies performed, an additional 5·2 (95% confidence interval 4·1-6·3) cases of melanoma in situ were diagnosed and 8·1 (95% confidence interval 6·7-9·5) cases of invasive melanoma were diagnosed. When considering individual states, some demonstrated a positive association between biopsy rate and invasive melanoma incidence, others an inverse association, and still others a more complex pattern. CONCLUSIONS: Increased skin biopsies over time are associated with increased diagnosis of in situ melanoma, but the association with invasive melanoma is more complex.

Second fractures among older adults in the year following hip, shoulder, or wrist fracture.

UNLABELLED: We report on second fracture occurrence in the year following a hip, shoulder or wrist fracture using insurance claims. Among 273,330 people, 4.3 % had a second fracture; risk did not differ by first fracture type. Estimated adjusted second fracture probabilities may facilitate population-based evaluation of secondary fracture prevention strategies. INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was estimate second fracture risk for the older US population in the year following a hip, shoulder, or wrist fracture. METHODS: Observational cohort study of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with an index hip, shoulder, or wrist fragility fracture in 2009. Time-to-event analyses using Cox proportional hazards models to characterize the relationship between index fracture type (hip, shoulder, wrist) and patient factors (age, gender, and comorbidity) on second fracture risk in the year following the index fracture. RESULTS: Among 273,330 individuals with fracture, 11,885 (4.3 %) sustained a second hip, shoulder or wrist fracture within one year. Hip fracture was most common, regardless of the index fracture type. Comparing adjusted second fracture risks across index fracture types reveals that the magnitude of second fracture risk within each age-comorbidity group is similar regardless of the index fracture. Men and women face similar risks with frequently overlapping confidence intervals, except among women aged 85 years or older who are at greater risk. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of index fracture type, second fractures are common in the year following hip, shoulder or wrist fracture. Secondary fracture prevention strategies that take a population perspective should be informed by these estimates which take competing mortality risks into account.

Oral bisphosphonates and upper gastrointestinal toxicity: a study of cancer and early signals of esophageal injury.

SUMMARY: We evaluated the association between bisphosphonate use and (1) upper gastrointestinal cancer, (2) upper endoscopy, (3) incident Barrett's esophagus, and (4) prescription antacid initiation among Medicare beneficiaries. We found no bisphosphonate-cancer association and negative bisphosphonate-Barrett's association. INTRODUCTION: Bisphosphonates can irritate the esophagus; a cancer association has been suggested. Widespread bisphosphonates use compels continued investigation of upper gastrointestinal toxicity. METHODS: Using a 40% Medicare random sample denominator, inpatient, outpatient (2003-2011), and prescription (2006-2011) claims, we studied patients age 68 and older with osteoporosis and/or oral bisphosphonate use. Inverse propensity weighting estimated marginal structural models for the effect of bisphosphonate intensity (pills per month) and cumulative bisphosphonate pills received on upper gastrointestinal cancer risk. Secondary analyses of sub-cohorts without past bisphosphonates or upper endoscopy assessed bisphosphonate initiation and risk of (1) upper endoscopy, (2) incident Barrett's esophagus, and (3) prescription antacid initiation. RESULTS: The cohort included 1.64 million beneficiaries: 87.9% women, mean age, 76.8 (standard deviation (SD) 9.3); mean follow-up, 39.6 months; 38.1% received oral bisphosphonates. Cumulative bisphosphonate receipt, among users, ranged from 4 to 252 pills (5th to 95th percentile). We identified 2,308 upper gastrointestinal cancers (0.43/1000 person years). We found no association between cumulative bisphosphonate pills and cancer, odds ratio (OR) for each additional pill 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00, 1.00). In sub-cohorts, compared to none, lowest cumulative bisphosphonate use (one to nine pills) was associated with higher risk of endoscopy (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.08-1.14) and antacid initiation (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.10-1.16); higher intensity conferred no increased risk. Higher intensity and higher cumulative bisphosphonate category were associated with lower Barrett's risk. CONCLUSIONS: We found no bisphosphonate-cancer association and negative bisphosphonate-Barrett's association. Bisphosphonate initiation appears to identify patients susceptible to early irritating effects; clinicians might offer alternatives and delay endoscopy or antacids.

The International Costs and Utilities Related to Osteoporotic Fractures Study (ICUROS)--quality of life during the first 4 months after fracture.

UNLABELLED: The quality of life during the first 4 months after fracture was estimated in 2,808 fractured patients from 11 countries. Analysis showed that there were significant differences in the quality of life (QoL) loss between countries. Other factors such as QoL prior fracture and hospitalisation also had a significant impact on the QoL loss. INTRODUCTION: The International Costs and Utilities Related to Osteoporotic Fractures Study (ICUROS) was initiated in 2007 with the objective of estimating costs and quality of life related to fractures in several countries worldwide. The ICUROS is ongoing and enrols patients in 11 countries (Australia, Austria, Estonia, France, Italy, Lithuania, Mexico, Russia, Spain, UK and the USA). The objective of this paper is to outline the study design of ICUROS and present results regarding the QoL (measured using the EQ-5D) during the first 4 months after fracture based on the patients that have been thus far enrolled ICUROS. METHODS: ICUROS uses a prospective study design where data (costs and quality of life) are collected in four phases over 18 months after fracture. All countries use the same core case report forms. Quality of life was collected using the EQ-5D instrument and a time trade-off questionnaire. RESULTS: The total sample for the analysis was 2,808 patients (1,273 hip, 987 distal forearm and 548 vertebral fracture). For all fracture types and countries, the QoL was reduced significantly after fracture compared to pre-fracture QoL. A regression analysis showed that there were significant differences in the QoL loss between countries. Also, a higher level of QoL prior to the fracture significantly increased the QoL loss and patients who were hospitalised for their fracture also had a significantly higher loss compared to those who were not. CONCLUSIONS: The findings in this study indicate that there appear to be important variations in the QoL decrements related to fracture between countries.

Predicting EQ-5D-US and SF-6D societal health state values from the Osteoporosis Assessment Questionnaire.

SUMMARY: Linear regression was applied to data from 275 persons with osteoporosis-related fracture to estimate EQ-5D-US and SF-6D health state values from the Osteoporosis Assessment Questionnaire. The models explained 56% and 58% of the variance in scores, respectively, and root mean square error values (0.096 and 0.085) indicated adequate prediction for use when actual values are unavailable. INTRODUCTION: This study was conducted to provide models that predict EQ-5D-US and SF-6D societal health state values from the Osteoporosis Assessment Questionnaire (OPAQ). METHODS: OPAQ, EQ-5D, and SF-6D data from individuals at two centers with prior osteoporosis-related fracture were used. Fractures were classified by type as hip/hip-like, spine/spine-like, or wrist/wrist-like. Spearman rank correlations between preference-based system (EQ-5D and SF-6D) dimensions and OPAQ subscales were estimated. Linear regression was used to estimate preference-based system health state values based on OPAQ subscales. We assessed models including age, sex, and fracture type and chose the model with the best performance based on the root mean square error (RMSE) estimate. RESULTS: Among the 275 participants (198 women), with mean age of 68 years (range 50-94), the distribution of fracture types included 10% hip/5% hip-like, 18% spine/11% spine-like, and 24% wrist/18% wrist-like. The final regression model for EQ-5D-US included three OPAQ attributes (physical function, emotional status, and symptoms), predicted 56% of the variance in EQ-5D-US scores, and had a RMSE of 0.096. The final model for SF-6D, which included all four OPAQ dimensions, predicted 58% of the variance in SF-6D scores and had a RMSE of 0.085. CONCLUSIONS: Two models were developed to estimate EQ-5D-US and SF-6D health state values from OPAQ and demonstrated adequate prediction for use when actual values are not available.

The potential impact of the National Osteoporosis Foundation guidance on treatment eligibility in the USA: an update in NHANES 2005-2008.

UNLABELLED: This analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2008 data describes the prevalence of risk factors for osteoporosis and the proportions of men and postmenopausal women age 50 years and older who are candidates for treatment to lower fracture risk, according to the new Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)-based National Osteoporosis Foundation Clinician's Guide. INTRODUCTION: It is important to update estimates of the proportions of the older US population considered eligible for pharmacologic treatment for osteoporosis for purposes of understanding the health care burden of this disease. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study of the NHANES 2005-2008 data in 3,608 men and women aged 50 years and older. Variables in the analysis included race/ethnicity, age, lumbar spine and femoral neck bone mineral density, risk factor profiles, and FRAX 10-year fracture probabilities. RESULTS: The prevalence of osteoporosis of the femoral neck ranged from 6.0% in non-Hispanic black to 12.6% in Mexican American women. Spinal osteoporosis was more prevalent among Mexican American women (24.4%) than among either non-Hispanic blacks (5.3%) or non-Hispanic whites (10.9%). Treatment eligibility was similar in Mexican American and non-Hispanic white women (32.0% and 32.8%) and higher than it was in non-Hispanic black women (11.0%). Treatment eligibility among men was 21.1% in non-Hispanic whites, 12.6% in Mexican Americans, and 3.0% in non-Hispanic blacks. CONCLUSIONS: Nineteen percent of older men and 30% of older women in the USA are at sufficient risk for fracture to warrant consideration for pharmacotherapy.

Hip fracture risk in older US adults by treatment eligibility status based on new National Osteoporosis Foundation guidance.

UNLABELLED: This analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III data found a significant risk of incident hip fracture in adults aged 65 years and older who are candidates for treatment to lower fracture risk, according to the new National Osteoporosis Foundation Clinician's Guide. INTRODUCTION: The relationship between treatment eligibility by the new National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) Guide to the Prevention and Treatment of Osteoporosis and the risk of subsequent hip fracture is unknown. METHODS: The study sample consisted of 3,208 men and women ages 65 years and older who were examined in the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988-1994), a nationally representative survey. Risk factors used to define treatment eligibility at baseline were measured in NHANES III or were simulated using World Health Organization study cohorts. Incident hip fractures were ascertained using linked mortality and Medicare records that were obtained for NHANES III participants through December 31, 2000. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of hip fracture by treatment eligibility status. RESULTS: The RR for subsequent hip fracture was 4.9 (95% CI 3.30, 7.94) in treatment-eligible vs treatment-ineligible persons. The increased risk for treatment-eligible persons remained statistically significant when examined by sex or age: RR(men) = 5.5 (2.6, 11.4) and RR(women) = 4.3 (2.2, 8.4); RR(65-79 y) = 4.8 (2.6, 8.7) and RR(80+ y) = 4.6 (2.1, 10.1). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment-eligible persons were about five times more likely to experience a subsequent hip fracture than the non-eligible persons. The new NOF guidelines appear to predict future hip fracture risk equally in men as in women, and fracture risk prediction did not appear to diminish with age.

Persistence and switching patterns among women with varied osteoporosis medication histories: 12-month results from POSSIBLE US.

UNLABELLED: During the first year of Prospective Observational Scientific Study Investigating Bone Loss Experience (POSSIBE US), many women transitioned (i.e., discontinued or switched) from their baseline osteoporosis medication. Participants not on stable therapy at entry, with side effects, and with poor physical status were at higher risk of transitioning. Understanding factors associated with persistence may lead to improved outcomes. INTRODUCTION: Postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO) medication use patterns may differ by treatment history and drug class. We describe these patterns among patients in primary care settings using patient-reported data. METHODS: Data from 3,006 participants of the POSSIBLE US were used to estimate the probability of a baseline PMO medication transition (i.e., discontinuation or switch) and hazard ratios (HRs) for predictors of these transitions. RESULTS: One year after study entry, the probability of persisting with a baseline medication was 66% (95% CI: 64-68%). After adjusting for age and osteoporosis diagnosis, factors at entry independently associated with a higher risk of baseline medication transition were treatment status cohort, side effect severity, and OPAQ-SV physical function score. Compared to participants stable on therapy at entry, others had a higher risk, ranging from HR = 1.59 (95% CI: 1.36-1.85) for those new to therapy to HR = 2.00 (95% CI: 1.27-3.15) for those who recently augmented therapy at entry. Participants reporting moderate (HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.09-1.57) or severe (HR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.49-2.39) side effects had a higher risk than those not reporting side effects. Participants reporting Osteoporosis Assessment Questionnaire-Short Version physical function scores in the lowest tertile had a higher risk (HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.07-1.52) than those reporting scores in the highest tertile. CONCLUSION: Baseline osteoporosis medication transitions were common in the first year of POSSIBLE US. Participants not on stable therapy at entry, or who reported severe side effects, or had poor physical health status were at higher risk for these transitions.

The potential impact of new National Osteoporosis Foundation guidance on treatment patterns.

UNLABELLED: This analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III data describes the prevalence of risk factors for osteoporosis and the proportions of men and postmenopausal women age 50 years and older who are candidates for treatment to lower fracture risk, according to the new FRAX-based National Osteoporosis Foundation Clinician's Guide. INTRODUCTION: Little information is available on prevalence of osteoporosis risk factors or proportions of US men and women who are potential candidates for treatment. METHODS: The prevalence of risk factors used in the new National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) FRAX-based Guide to the Prevention and Treatment of Osteoporosis was estimated using data from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). Risk factors not measured in NHANES III were simulated using World Health Organization cohorts. The proportion of US men and postmenopausal women age 50+ years who are treatment candidates by the new NOF Guide were calculated; for non-Hispanic white (NHW) women, the proportion eligible by the new NOF Guide was compared with that based on an earlier NOF Guide. RESULTS: Twenty percent of men and 37% of women were potential candidates for treatment to prevent fractures by the new NOF Guide. Among NHW women, 53% were potential candidates by the previous NOF Guide compared with 41% by the new guide. CONCLUSIONS: One fifth of men and 37% of postmenopausal women are eligible for osteoporosis treatment consideration by the new NOF Guide. However, fewer NHW women are eligible by the new guide than by the previous NOF Guide.

Design of the POSSIBLE UStrade mark Study: postmenopausal women's compliance and persistence with osteoporosis medications.

UNLABELLED: Failure to take prescribed medication is common. The POSSIBLE US study is evaluating the impact of physician and patient characteristics on patient-reported compliance and persistence with osteoporosis medications. We report our study design and the baseline characteristics of 4,994 postmenopausal women recruited from primary care physician offices in 33 states. INTRODUCTION: The Prospective Observational Scientific Study Investigating Bone Loss Experience (POSSIBLE US) is a longitudinal cohort study of osteoporosis therapy in primary care. METHODS: Between 2004 and 2007, 134 physicians (in 33 states) enrolled postmenopausal women initiating, changing, or continuing osteoporosis medications. After completing a baseline questionnaire, participants will provide data semi-annually for up to 3 years through 2008. Physicians provide patient data at baseline and routine follow-up visits. Participants from 23 sites also signed a release regarding administrative claims data for economic analyses and validation of self-reported data. BASELINE RESULTS: Four thousand nine hundred and ninety-four evaluable women were recruited from internal medicine (n = 1,784), family practice (n = 1,556), obstetrics/gynecology (n = 1,556), and from one rheumatology practice (n = 98). Mean participant age was 64.3 years (SD = 9.97); 89% were Caucasian; 59% had some college education. Sixty-three percent used a single osteoporosis agent, usually a bisphosphonate. For monotherapy patients, concordance between clinic- and patient-reported medication use was lowest for patients prescribed estrogen therapy (70%) or calcium/vitamin D (72%). Obstetrician/gynecologists enrolled younger women, who were more likely to use estrogen therapy than patients enrolled by other physicians. The 934 women (19%) prescribed only calcium/vitamin D were younger than women prescribed pharmacologic therapy. CONCLUSIONS: POSSIBLE US provides a unique foundation for evaluating longitudinal use of osteoporosis medications and related outcomes.

Trends in Clinical Breast Density Assessment From the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium.

Changes to mammography practice, including revised Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) density classification guidelines and implementation of digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT), may impact clinical breast density assessment. We investigated temporal trends in clinical breast density assessment among 2 990 291 digital mammography (DM) screens and 221 063 DBT screens interpreted by 722 radiologists from 144 facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. After age-standardization, 46.3% (95% CI = 44.1% to 48.6%) of DM screens were assessed as dense (heterogeneously/extremely dense) during the BI-RADS 4th edition era (2005-2013), compared to 46.5% (95% CI = 43.8% to 49.1%) during the 5th edition era (2014-2016) (P = .93 from two-sided generalized score test). Among DBT screens in the BI-RADS 5th edition era, 45.8% (95% CI = 42.0% to 49.7%) were assessed as dense (P = .77 from two-sided generalized score test) compared to 46.5% (95% CI = 43.8% to 49.1%) dense on DM in BI-RADS 5th edition era. Results were similar when examining all four density categories and age subgroups. Clinicians, researchers, and policymakers may reasonably expect stable density distributions across screened populations despite changes to the BI-RADS guidelines and implementation of DBT.

Deficits in preference-based health-related quality of life after complications associated with tibial fracture.

Aims: The aims of this study were to quantify health state utility values (HSUVs) after a tibial fracture, investigate the effect of complications, to determine the trajectory in HSUVs that result in these differences and to quantify the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) experienced by patients. Patients and Methods: This is an analysis of 2138 tibial fractures enrolled in the Fluid Lavage of Open Wounds (FLOW) and Study to Prospectively Evaluate Reamed Intramedullary Nails in Patients with Tibial Fractures (SPRINT) trials. Patients returned for follow-up at two and six weeks and three, six, nine and 12 months. Short-Form Six-Dimension (SF-6D) values were calculated and used to calculate QALYs. Results: Compared with those who did not have a complication, those with a complication treated either nonoperatively or operatively had lower HSUVs at all times after two weeks. The HSUVs improved in all patients with the passage of time. However, they did not return to the remembered baseline preinjury values nor to US age-adjusted normal values by 12 months after the injury. Conclusion: While the acute fracture and complications may have resolved clinically, the detrimental effect on a patient's quality of life persists up to 12 months after the injury. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:1227-33.

Perceptions of breast cancer risk and screening effectiveness in women younger than 50 years of age.

BACKGROUND: The National Cancer Institute has recently changed its approach and has substituted summary-of-evidence statements for specific recommendations for breast cancer screening in women 40-50 years of age, leaving these women with a greater share of decision-making responsibility. To make an informed decision about breast cancer screening, women need accurate information about their breast cancer risk and the benefit of screening. Although it has been suggested that women younger than 50 years of age overestimate this risk and benefit, their estimates have not been quantified. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to determine how women 40-50 years of age perceive their risk of breast cancer and the effectiveness of screening and how these perceptions compare with estimates derived from epidemiologic studies of breast cancer incidence and randomized clinical trials of screening. METHODS: We mailed a questionnaire to 200 women, identified through the computerized medical records of Dartmouth-Hitchock Medical Center, who were between 40 and 50 years of age and had no history of breast cancer. Each woman was asked about her risk factors for breast cancer and asked to estimate her probabilities of developing breast cancer and dying of it within 10 years, with and without screening. The women's answers were compared with individual probabilities derived from the Gail et al. model, age-specific probabilities of developing and dying of breast cancer in the United States, and the results of randomized clinical trials of screening. RESULTS: The mailed questionnaire was completed and returned by 145 (73%) of the 200 women. Respondents over-estimated their probability of dying of breast cancer within 10 years by more than 20-fold (median, 22.3; interquartile range, 11.1-74.2). Assuming a 10% relative risk reduction from screening, respondents overestimated the relative risk reduction by sixfold (median, 6.0; interquartile range, 5.0-7.5) and the absolute risk reduction more than 100-fold (median, 127.5; interquartile range, 47.1-399.6). The median perceived estimate of absolute risk reduction was 6.0 breast cancer deaths per 100 women; the median calculated estimate was only 0.04 per 100 women. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that many women younger than 50 years of age substantially overestimate their breast cancer risk and the effectiveness of screening. IMPLICATIONS: A balanced presentation of information about breast cancer risk and screening effectiveness may improve decision making for women younger than 50 years of age and reduce their anxiety about breast cancer, regardless of whether they choose to be screened.

Statewide study of diagnostic agreement in breast pathology.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the degree of diagnostic agreement among community-based general pathologists reading slides of representative breast tissue specimens and tested whether diagnostic variability is associated with type of breast specimen (e.g., core needle or excisional biopsy) or slide quality. METHODS: Twenty-six of the 44 eligible pathologists working at community-based pathology practices in New Hampshire participated. Each pathologist evaluated slides of breast tissue obtained from 30 case subjects randomly selected from a statewide breast pathology database. The diagnostic categories used were benign, benign with atypia, noninvasive malignant, and invasive malignant. The levels of agreement (i.e., kappa coefficients) for the diagnoses were assessed. RESULTS: Agreement was high among pathologists for assignment of diagnostic category (kappa coefficient = 0.71) and was nearly perfect for their selection of benign versus malignant categories (kappa coefficient = 0.95). There was less agreement for the categories of noninvasive malignant and benign with atypia (kappa coefficients of 0.59 and 0.22, respectively). There was no apparent relationship between levels of diagnostic agreement and specimen type or perceived slide quality. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnostic agreement for breast tissue specimens is high overall among community-based pathologists, but clinically relevant disagreements may occur in the assessment of noninvasive malignant diagnoses. The establishment of reread policies for certain diagnostic categories may reduce the possibility that diagnostic misclassification will lead to overtreatment or undertreatment. The high degree of diagnostic reproducibility for invasive cancerous lesions of the breast suggests that it is unnecessary for a central review of these lesions in national cancer trials.

The relative influence of secondary versus primary prevention using the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel II guidelines.

OBJECTIVES: This study was undertaken to project the population-wide effect of full implementation of the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) II guidelines of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP). BACKGROUND: The ATP II has proposed guidelines for cholesterol reduction, but the long-term epidemiologic influence of its components has not been fully examined. METHODS: We used a calibrated, validated simulation of the U.S. population, aged 35 to 84 years to estimate the potential for the NCEP guidelines, under varying assumptions, to reduce coronary heart disease morbidity and mortality and overall mortality from the years 2000 to 2020. RESULTS: Primary prevention would yield only about half of the benefits of secondary prevention despite requiring nearly twice as many person-years of treatment. The projected increase in quality-adjusted years of life per year of treatment for secondary prevention was 3- to 12-fold higher than for primary prevention. To yield population-wide epidemiologic benefits equivalent to NCEP recommendations for secondary prevention, primary prevention would require a nearly sixfold increase in the number of persons treated compared with NCEP recommendations. All benefits of universal success of the NCEP primary prevention "screen and treat" guidelines could be achieved by a 11 mg/dl (8%) population-wide reduction in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels among persons without preexisting coronary heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: The NCEP guidelines for targeted primary prevention can be a useful component of a rational public health strategy, but only as a complement to the more appealing strategies of secondary prevention and "across-the-board" programs to lower all cholesterol levels.