Towards fair and clinically relevant polygenic predictions.

Lennon et al. recently proposed a clinical polygenic score (PGS) pipeline as part of the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) network initiative. In this spotlight article we discuss the broader context for the use of PGS in preventive medicine and highlight key limitations and challenges facing their inclusion in prediction models.

Risk factors for anorexia nervosa: A population-based investigation of sex differences in polygenic risk and early life exposures.

OBJECTIVE: To examine sex differences in risk factors for anorexia nervosa (AN). METHOD: This population-based study involved 44,743 individuals (6,239 AN cases including 5,818 females and 421 males, and 38,504 controls including 18,818 females and 19,686 males) born in Denmark between May 1981 and December 2009. Follow-up began on the individual's sixth birthday and ended at AN diagnosis, emigration, death, or December 31, 2016, whichever occurred first. Exposures included socioeconomic status (SES), pregnancy, birth, and early childhood factors based on data from Danish registers, and psychiatric and metabolic polygenic risk scores (PRS) based on genetic data. Hazard ratios were estimated using weighted Cox proportional hazards models stratified by sex (assigned at birth), with AN diagnosis as the outcome. RESULTS: The effects of early life exposures and PRS on AN risk were comparable between females and males. Although we observed some differences in the magnitude and direction of effects, there were no significant interactions between sex and SES, pregnancy, birth, or early childhood exposures. The effects of most PRS on AN risk were highly similar between the sexes. We observed significant sex-specific effects of parental psychiatric history and body mass index PRS, though these effects did not survive corrections for multiple comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for AN are comparable between females and males. Collaboration across countries with large registers is needed to further investigate sex-specific effects of genetic, biological, and environmental exposures on AN risk, including exposures in later childhood and adolescence as well as the additive effects of exposures. PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE: Sex differences in the prevalence and clinical presentation of AN warrant examination of sex-specific risk factors. This population-based study indicates that the effects of polygenic risk and early life exposures on AN risk are comparable between females and males. Collaboration between countries with large registers is needed to further investigate sex-specific AN risk factors and improve early identification of AN.

Genetic and psychosocial influence on the association between early childhood infections and later psychiatric disorders.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of extensive genetic and psychosocial confounding on the association between early childhood infection and five major psychiatric disorders METHODS: A case-cohort study including participants from the Danish iPSYCH2012 sample, a case-cohort sample where all cases born between May 1, 1981, and December 31, 2005, diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), bipolar affective disorder (BIP), Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) or schizophrenia (SCZ), were identified and pooled with a representative sample (subcohort) of the Danish population. We used Cox proportional hazards regression customized to the case-cohort setup to calculate hazard ratios of outcome with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), following exposure to early childhood infection before the age of 5 years for ADHD and ASD, and before the age of 10 years for BIP, MDD, and SCZ. To evaluate psychosocial confounding we included sex, calendar period, sibling infections, urbanicity, parental socio-economic status, parental mental health information, and polygenic risk scores for all five disorders, as covariates. To estimate how liability for psychiatric disorders measured through the PRS influenced the risk of early childhood infection, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs, using logistic regression RESULTS: Early childhood infection was associated with ADHD, ASD, MDD, and SCZ with number of childhood infections increasing the hazard. The HR was still significant in the model with full adjustments after 1 infection for ADHD (HR 1.29, 95% CI: 1.19-1.41), ASD (HR 1.28, 95% CI: 1.18-1.40), MDD (HR 1.23, 95% CI: 1.14-1.33), and SCZ (HR 1.21, 95% CI: 1.07-1.36), but not for BIP (HR1.17, 95% CI: 0.96-1.42). Probands exposed to sibling infections, but not own infection had an absolute risk of ADHD, BIP, MDD, and SCZ that closely approached the absolute risk for individuals exposed to own infections. We found evidence of gene-environment correlation with higher PRS of MDD and to some extent SCZ increasing the risk of infections and higher PRS of BIP associated with significantly decreased risk CONCLUSION: Early childhood infection is significantly associated with ADHD, ASD, MDD, and SCZ and not explained by genetic or psychosocial confounding. Although we found evidence of gene-environment correlation, it had minor impact on the results.

Diagnosed eating disorders in Danish registers - incidence, prevalence, mortality, and polygenic risk.

Eating disorders are a group of severe and potentially enduring psychiatric disorders associated with increased mortality. Compared to other severe mental illnesses, they have received relatively limited research attention. Epidemiological studies often only report relative measures despite these being difficult to interpret having limited practical use. The aims of this study were to evaluate the incidence and prevalence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa, and eating disorder not otherwise specified recorded in Danish hospital registers and estimate both relative and absolute measures of subsequent mortality - both all-cause and cause-specific in a general nationwide population of 1,667,374 individuals. In a smaller, genetically informed case-cohort sample, the prediction of polygenic scores for AN, body fat percentage, and body mass index on AN prevalence and severity was estimated. Despite males being less likely to be diagnosed with an eating disorder, those that do have significantly increased rates of mortality. AN prevalence was highest for individuals with high AN and low body fat percentage/body mass index polygenic scores.

Interplay of ADHD Polygenic Liability With Birth-Related, Somatic, and Psychosocial Factors in ADHD: A Nationwide Study.

OBJECTIVE: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a multifactorial neurodevelopmental disorder, yet the interplay between ADHD polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and other risk factors remains relatively unexplored. The authors investigated associations, confounding, and interactions of ADHD PRS with birth-related, somatic, and psychosocial factors previously associated with ADHD. METHODS: Participants included a random general population sample (N=21,578) and individuals diagnosed with ADHD (N=13,697) from the genotyped Danish iPSYCH2012 case cohort, born between 1981 and 2005. The authors derived ADHD PRSs and identified 24 factors previously associated with ADHD using national registers. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations of ADHD PRS with each risk factor in the general population. Cox models were used to evaluate confounding of risk factor associations with ADHD diagnosis by ADHD PRS and parental psychiatric history, and interactions between ADHD PRS and each risk factor. RESULTS: ADHD PRS was associated with 12 of 24 risk factors (odds ratio range, 1.03-1.30), namely, small gestational age, infections, traumatic brain injury, and most psychosocial risk factors. Nineteen risk factors were associated with ADHD diagnosis (odds ratio range, 1.20-3.68), and adjusting for ADHD PRS and parental psychiatric history led to only minor attenuations. Only the interaction between ADHD PRS and maternal autoimmune disease survived correction for multiple testing. CONCLUSIONS: Higher ADHD PRS in the general population is associated with small increases in risk for certain birth-related and somatic ADHD risk factors, and broadly to psychosocial adversity. Evidence of gene-environment interaction was limited, as was confounding by ADHD PRS and family psychiatric history on ADHD risk factor associations. This suggests that the majority of the investigated ADHD risk factors act largely independently of current ADHD PRS to increase risk of ADHD.

Polygenic Risk of Mental Disorders and Subject-Specific School Grades.

BACKGROUND: Education is essential for socioeconomic security and long-term mental health; however, mental disorders are often detrimental to the educational trajectory. Genetic correlations between mental disorders and educational attainment do not always align with corresponding phenotypic associations, implying heterogeneity in the genetic overlap. METHODS: We unraveled this heterogeneity by investigating associations between polygenic risk scores for 6 mental disorders and fine-grained school outcomes: school grades in language and mathematics in ninth grade and high school, as well as educational attainment by age 25, using nationwide-representative data from established cohorts (N = 79,489). RESULTS: High polygenic liability of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder was associated with lower grades in language and mathematics, whereas high polygenic risk of anorexia nervosa or bipolar disorder was associated with higher grades in language and mathematics. Associations between polygenic risk and school grades were mixed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder and neutral for autism spectrum disorder. CONCLUSIONS: Polygenic risk scores for mental disorders are differentially associated with language and mathematics school grades.

Anorexia nervosa and inflammatory bowel diseases-Diagnostic and genetic associations.

Background: Anorexia nervosa (AN), a serious eating disorder, and inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) share a number of key symptoms, for example, discomfort during eating and early satiety. Despite the symptom overlap, studies on comorbidity are limited and mostly conducted in relatively small samples. This study investigates the comorbidity of diagnosed AN with IBD, and the subtypes Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, in a population-based sample and explores whether genetic factors could play a role in the overlap. Methods: The study included 1,238,813 individuals born in Denmark 1981-2005 selected from the population register (5067 diagnosed with AN and 6947 diagnosed with any IBD), including a subsample of 23,236 individuals with genetic information (4271 with AN and 176 with any IBD). By combining hospital-based diagnoses recorded in health registers until 2013 with polygenic scores (PGS) of AN and IBD, we investigated possible associations between diagnoses of each disorder, both within individuals and families, and between PGS of one disorder and diagnosis of the other disorder. Analyses were conducted using Cox regression and logistic regression. Results: We found that a prior diagnosis of AN was associated with hazard ratios of 1.44 (1.05, 1.97) for any IBD, 1.60 (1.04, 2.46) for Crohn's disease, and 1.66 (1.15, 2.39) for ulcerative colitis, whereas IBD diagnoses were not significantly associated with later AN diagnosis. No significant within-families associations were observed. We found no associations between AN and IBD using PGS. Conclusions: AN was associated with later risk of IBD, Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis; however, the reverse was not observed. It is important for clinicians to be aware of this association to evaluate IBD as a differential diagnosis or an emergent condition in patients with AN.

Genetic, Clinical, and Sociodemographic Factors Associated With Stimulant Treatment Outcomes in ADHD.

OBJECTIVE: Stimulant medications are effective for treating attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), yet discontinuation and switch to nonstimulant ADHD medications are common. This study aimed to identify genetic, clinical, and sociodemographic factors influencing stimulant treatment initiation, discontinuation, and switch to nonstimulants in individuals with ADHD. METHODS: The authors obtained genetic and national register data for 9,133 individuals with ADHD from the Danish iPSYCH2012 sample and defined stimulant treatment initiation, discontinuation, and switch from prescriptions. For each stimulant treatment outcome, they examined associations with polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for psychiatric disorders and clinical and sociodemographic factors using survival analyses, and conducted genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and estimated single-nucleotide polymorphism heritability (h2SNP). RESULTS: Eighty-one percent of the sample initiated stimulant treatment. Within 2 years, 45% discontinued stimulants and 15% switched to nonstimulants. Bipolar disorder PRS (hazard ratio=1.05, 95% CI=1.02, 1.09) and schizophrenia PRS (hazard ratio=1.07, 95% CI=1.03, 1.11) were associated with discontinuation. Depression, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia PRSs were marginally but not significantly associated with switch (hazard ratio range, 1.05-1.07). No associations were observed for ADHD and autism PRSs. Individuals diagnosed with ADHD at age 13 or older had higher rates of stimulant initiation, discontinuation, and switch (hazard ratio range, 1.27-2.01). Psychiatric comorbidities generally reduced rates of initiation (hazard ratio range, 0.84-0.88) and increased rates of discontinuation (hazard ratio range, 1.19-1.45) and switch (hazard ratio range, 1.40-2.08). h2SNP estimates were not significantly different from zero. No GWAS hits were identified for stimulant initiation or discontinuation. A locus on chromosome 16q23.3 reached genome-wide significance for switch. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest that individuals with ADHD with higher polygenic liability for mood and/or psychotic disorders, delayed ADHD diagnosis, and psychiatric comorbidities have a higher risk for stimulant treatment discontinuation and switch to nonstimulants. Despite the study's limited sample size, one putative GWAS hit for switch was identified, illustrating the potential of utilizing genomics linked to prescription databases to advance ADHD pharmacogenomics.

Polygenic Risk Score-Enhanced Risk Stratification of Coronary Artery Disease in Patients With Stable Chest Pain.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are associated with coronary artery disease (CAD), but the clinical potential of using PRSs at the single-patient level for risk stratification has yet to be established. We investigated whether adding a PRS to clinical risk factors (CRFs) improves risk stratification in patients referred to coronary computed tomography angiography on a suspicion of obstructive CAD. METHODS: In this prespecified diagnostic substudy of the Dan-NICAD trial (Danish study of Non-Invasive testing in Coronary Artery Disease), we included 1617 consecutive patients with stable chest symptoms and no history of CAD referred for coronary computed tomography angiography. CRFs used for risk stratification were age, sex, symptoms, prior or active smoking, antihypertensive treatment, lipid-lowering treatment, and diabetes. In addition, patients were genotyped, and their PRSs were calculated. All patients underwent coronary computed tomography angiography. Patients with a suspected ≥50% stenosis also underwent invasive coronary angiography with fractional flow reserve. A combined end point of obstructive CAD was defined as a visual invasive coronary angiography stenosis >90%, fractional flow reserve <0.80, or a quantitative coronary analysis stenosis >50% if fractional flow reserve measurements were not feasible. RESULTS: The PRS was associated with obstructive CAD independent of CRFs (adjusted odds ratio, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.5-2.2] per SD). The PRS had an area under the curve of 0.63 (0.59-0.68), which was similar to that for age and sex. Combining the PRS with CRFs led to a CRF+PRS model with area under the curve of 0.75 (0.71-0.79), which was 0.04 more than the CRF model (P=0.0029). By using pretest probability (pretest probability) cutoffs at 5% and 15%, a net reclassification improvement of 15.8% (P=3.1×10-4) was obtained, with a down-classification of risk in 24% of patients (211 of 862) in whom the pretest probability was 5% to 15% based on CRFs alone. CONCLUSIONS: Adding a PRS improved risk stratification of obstructive CAD beyond CRFs, suggesting a modest clinical potential of using PRSs to guide diagnostic testing in the contemporary clinical setting. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02264717.

Polygenic risk score, psychosocial environment and the risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

The objective of the present study was to investigate whether the polygenic liability for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and the psychosocial environment impact the risk of ADHD in interaction or independently of each other. We conducted a register- and biobank-based cohort study of 13,725 individuals with ADHD and 20,147 randomly drawn population-based controls. These 33,872 cohort members were genotyped on the Infinium PsychChip v1.0 array (Illumina). Subsequently, we calculated the polygenic risk score (PRS) for ADHD and extracted register data regarding the following risk factors pertaining to the psychosocial environment for each cohort member at the time of birth: maternal/paternal history of mental disorders, maternal/paternal education, maternal/paternal work status, and maternal/paternal income. We used logistic regression analyses to assess the main effects of the PRS for ADHD and the psychosocial environment on the risk of ADHD. Subsequently, we evaluated whether the effect of the PRS and the psychosocial environment act independently or in interaction upon the risk of ADHD. We found that ADHD was strongly associated with the PRS (odds ratio: 6.03, 95%CI: 4.74-7.70 for highest vs. lowest 2% liability). All risk factors pertaining to the psychosocial environment were associated with an increased risk of ADHD. These associations were only slightly attenuated after mutual adjustments. We found no statistically significant interaction between the polygenic liability and the psychosocial environment upon the risk of ADHD. In conclusion, we found main effects of both polygenic liability and risk factors pertaining to the psychosocial environment on the risk of ADHD-in the expected direction.

Association Between Childhood Green Space, Genetic Liability, and the Incidence of Schizophrenia.

Childhood exposure to green space has previously been associated with lower risk of developing schizophrenia later in life. It is unclear whether this association is mediated by genetic liability or whether the 2 risk factors work additively. Here, we investigate possible gene-environment associations with the hazard ratio (HR) of schizophrenia by combining (1) an estimate of childhood exposure to residential-level green space based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from Landsat satellite images, with (2) genetic liability estimates based on polygenic risk scores for 19 746 genotyped individuals from the Danish iPSYCH sample. We used information from the Danish registers of health, residential address, and socioeconomic status to adjust HR estimates for established confounders, ie, parents' socioeconomic status, and family history of mental illness. The adjusted HRs show that growing up surrounded by the highest compared to the lowest decile of NDVI was associated with a 0.52-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.40 to 0.66) lower schizophrenia risk, and children with the highest polygenic risk score had a 1.24-fold (95% CI: 1.18 to 1.30) higher schizophrenia risk. We found that NDVI explained 1.45% (95% CI: 1.07 to 1.90) of the variance on the liability scale, while polygenic risk score for schizophrenia explained 1.01% (95% CI: 0.77 to 1.46). Together they explained 2.40% (95% CI: 1.99 to 3.07) with no indication of a gene-environment interaction (P = .29). Our results suggest that risk of schizophrenia is associated additively with green space exposure and genetic liability, and provide no support for an environment-gene interaction between NDVI and schizophrenia.

Association of Childhood Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide and Polygenic Risk Score for Schizophrenia With the Risk of Developing Schizophrenia.

Importance: Schizophrenia is a highly heritable psychiatric disorder, and recent studies have suggested that exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during childhood is associated with an elevated risk of subsequently developing schizophrenia. However, it is not known whether the increased risk associated with NO2 exposure is owing to a greater genetic liability among those exposed to highest NO2 levels. Objective: To examine the associations between childhood NO2 exposure and genetic liability for schizophrenia (as measured by a polygenic risk score), and risk of developing schizophrenia. Design, Setting, and Participants: Population-based cohort study including individuals with schizophrenia (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision code F20) and a randomly selected subcohort. Using national registry data, all individuals born in Denmark between May 1, 1981, and December 31, 2002, were followed up from their 10th birthday until the first occurrence of schizophrenia, emigration, death, or December 31, 2012, whichever came first. Statistical analyses were conducted between October 24, 2018, and June 17, 2019. Exposures: Individual exposure to NO2 during childhood estimated as mean daily exposure to NO2 at residential addresses from birth to the 10th birthday. Polygenic risk scores were calculated as the weighted sum of risk alleles at selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms based on genetic material obtained from dried blood spot samples from the Danish Newborn Screening Biobank and on the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium genome-wide association study summary statistics file. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was schizophrenia. Weighted Cox proportional hazards regression models were fitted to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) for schizophrenia with 95% CIs according to the exposures. Results: Of a total of 23 355 individuals, 11 976 (51.3%) were male and all had Danish-born parents. During the period of the study, 3531 were diagnosed with schizophrenia. Higher polygenic risk scores were correlated with higher childhood NO2 exposure (ρ = 0.0782; 95% CI, 0.065-0.091; P < .001). A 10-µg/m3 increase in childhood daily NO2 exposure (AHR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.15-1.32) and a 1-SD increase in polygenic risk score (AHR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.23-1.35) were independently associated with increased schizophrenia risk. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the apparent association between NO2 exposure and schizophrenia is only slightly confounded by a higher polygenic risk score for schizophrenia among individuals living in areas with greater NO2. The findings demonstrate the utility of including polygenic risk scores in epidemiologic studies.