Development and validation of a risk score to identify children at risk of life-threatening asthma.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a prediction risk score for identification of children at risk of developing life-threatening asthma (LTA). METHODS: Our study utilized existing medical records and retrospective analysis to develop and validate a risk score. The study population included children aged 2-17 years, admitted with a primary diagnosis of asthma, to Sydney Children's Hospital between 2011-2016. Children admitted in the intensive care unit with asthma at risk of LTA (cases) and those admitted into general ward (comparison group), were randomly divided into a derivation and a validation cohort. Candidate predictors from derivation cohort were selected through multivariable regression, which were used to estimate each child's risk of developing LTA in the validation cohort. Predictive performance of the risk score was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. RESULTS: The study population comprised of 1171 children; 586 in the derivation and 585 in the validation cohort. Four independent candidate variables from derivation cohort (age at admission, socioeconomic status, a family history of asthma/atopy and previous asthma hospitalizations) were retained in the predictive model (AUROC 0.759; 95% CI, 0.694-0.823), with a sensitivity of 78.5% and specificity of 46.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Our risk algorithm based on routinely collected clinical data may be used to develop a user-friendly risk score for early identification and monitoring of children at risk of developing LTA.

Children with bronchiectasis have poorer lung function than those with cystic fibrosis and do not receive the same standard of care.

BACKGROUND: Children with cystic fibrosis (CF) are routinely managed in a multidisciplinary clinic at tertiary pediatric centers. However, children with bronchiectasis may not be managed in the same way. We sought to compare the management model and clinical outcomes of children with bronchiectasis with children diagnosed with CF, in a single pediatric center. METHODS: We identified patients with bronchiectasis from hospital medical records at an urban tertiary pediatric hospital and identified a sex- and age-matched CF patient at the same center to compare lung function, nutritional status, frequency of physiotherapy and respiratory physician visits, and number of microbiological samples taken for bacterial culture. RESULTS: Twenty-two children with bronchiectasis were identified, mean (standard deviation [SD]) age was 11 (3) years. The most common known etiology for bronchiectasis was postinfective (6 of 22) but was unknown in 8 of 22. The cohort with bronchiectasis had poorer lung function (FEV1 mean [SD] percent predicted 78.6 [20.5] vs 94.5 [14.7], P = .005) and had less outpatient reviews by the respiratory physician (P < .001) and respiratory physiotherapist (P < .001) when compared to those with CF. Nutritional parameters did not differ between the groups. Many children (10 of 22, 45%) with bronchiectasis did not have any microbiological respiratory tract samples taken for evaluation. CONCLUSION: Children with bronchiectasis at this institution have poorer lung function than children with CF, and are deserving of improved multidisciplinary care.