Real-world nudging, pricing, and mobile physical activity coaching was insufficient to improve lifestyle behaviours and cardiometabolic health: the Supreme Nudge parallel cluster-randomised controlled supermarket trial.

BACKGROUND: Context-specific interventions may contribute to sustained behaviour change and improved health outcomes. We evaluated the real-world effects of supermarket nudging and pricing strategies and mobile physical activity coaching on diet quality, food-purchasing behaviour, walking behaviour, and cardiometabolic risk markers. METHODS: This parallel cluster-randomised controlled trial included supermarkets in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods across the Netherlands with regular shoppers aged 30-80 years. Supermarkets were randomised to receive co-created nudging and pricing strategies promoting healthier purchasing (N = 6) or not (N = 6). Nudges targeted 9% of supermarket products and pricing strategies 3%. Subsequently, participants were individually randomised to a control (step counter app) or intervention arm (step counter and mobile coaching app) to promote walking. The primary outcome was the average change in diet quality (low (0) to high (150)) over all follow-up time points measured with a validated 40-item food frequency questionnaire at baseline and 3, 6, and 12 months. Secondary outcomes included healthier food purchasing (loyalty card-derived), daily step count (step counter app), cardiometabolic risk markers (lipid profile and HbA1c via finger prick, and waist circumference via measuring tape), and supermarket customer satisfaction (questionnaire-based: very unsatisfied (1) to very satisfied (7)), evaluated using linear mixed-models. Healthy supermarket sales (an exploratory outcome) were analysed via controlled interrupted time series analyses. RESULTS: Of 361 participants (162 intervention, 199 control), 73% were female, the average age was 58 (SD 11) years, and 42% were highly educated. Compared to the control arm, the intervention arm showed no statistically significant average changes over time in diet quality (ߠ- 1.1 (95% CI - 3.8 to 1.7)), percentage healthy purchasing (ß 0.7 ( - 2.7 to 4.0)), step count (ߠ- 124.0 (- 723.1 to 475.1), or any of the cardiometabolic risk markers. Participants in the intervention arm scored 0.3 points (0.1 to 0.5) higher on customer satisfaction on average over time. Supermarket-level sales were unaffected (ß - 0.0 (- 0.0 to 0.0)). CONCLUSIONS: Co-created nudging and pricing strategies that predominantly targeted healthy products via nudges were unable to increase healthier food purchases and intake nor improve cardiometabolic health. The mobile coaching intervention did not affect step count. Governmental policy measures are needed to ensure more impactful supermarket modifications that promote healthier purchases. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch Trial Register ID NL7064, 30 May 2018, https://www.onderzoekmetmensen.nl/en/trial/20990.

A system dynamics approach to understand Dutch adolescents' sleep health using a causal loop diagram.

BACKGROUND: Healthy sleep is crucial for the physical and mental wellbeing of adolescents. However, many adolescents suffer from poor sleep health. Little is known about how to effectively improve adolescent sleep health as it is shaped by a complex adaptive system of many interacting factors. This study aims to provide insights into the system dynamics underlying adolescent sleep health and to identify impactful leverage points for sleep health promotion interventions. METHODS: Three rounds of single-actor workshops, applying Group Model Building techniques, were held with adolescents (n = 23, 12-15 years), parents (n = 14) and relevant professionals (n = 26). The workshops resulted in a multi-actor Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) visualizing the system dynamics underlying adolescent sleep health. This CLD was supplemented with evidence from the literature. Subsystems, feedback loops and underlying causal mechanisms were identified to understand overarching system dynamics. Potential leverage points for action were identified applying the Action Scales Model (ASM). RESULTS: The resulting CLD comprised six subsystems around the following themes: (1) School environment; (2) Mental wellbeing; (3) Digital environment; (4) Family & Home environment; (5) Health behaviors & Leisure activities; (6) Personal system. Within and between these subsystems, 16 reinforcing and 7 balancing feedback loops were identified. Approximately 60 potential leverage points on different levels of the system were identified as well. CONCLUSIONS: The multi-actor CLD and identified system dynamics illustrate the complexity of adolescent sleep health and supports the need for developing a coherent package of activities targeting different leverage points at all system levels to induce system change.

The effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax and a nutrient profiling tax based on Nutri-Score on consumer food purchases in a virtual supermarket: a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax and a nutrient profiling tax on consumer food purchases in a virtual supermarket. DESIGN: A randomised controlled trial was conducted with a control condition with regular food prices (n 152), an SSB tax condition (n 130) and a nutrient profiling tax condition based on Nutri-Score (n 112). Participants completed a weekly grocery shop for their household. Primary outcome measures were SSB purchases (ordinal variable) and the overall healthiness of the total shopping basket (proportion of total unit food items classified as healthy). The secondary outcome measure was the energy (kcal) content of the total shopping basket. Data were analysed using regression analyses. SETTING: Three-dimensional virtual supermarket. PARTICIPANTS: Dutch adults aged ≥18 years are being responsible for grocery shopping in their household (n 394). RESULTS: The SSB tax (OR = 1·62, (95 % CI 1·03, 2·54)) and the nutrient profiling tax (OR = 1·88, (95 %CI 1·17, 3·02)) increased the likelihood of being in a lower-level category of SSB purchases. The overall healthiness of the total shopping basket was higher (+2·7 percent point, (95 % CI 0·1, 5·3)), and the energy content was lower (-3301 kcal, (95 % CI -6425, -177)) for participants in the nutrient profiling tax condition than for those in the control condition. The SSB tax did not affect the overall healthiness and energy content of the total shopping basket (P > 0·05). CONCLUSIONS: A nutrient profiling tax targeting a wide range of foods and beverages with a low nutritional quality seems to have larger beneficial effects on consumer food purchases than taxation of SSB alone.

Impact of taxes on purchases of close substitute foods: analysis of cross-price elasticities using data from a randomized experiment.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of health-related food taxes on substitution and complementary purchases within food groups, including from unhealthier to healthier alternatives and between brands. METHODS: We used data from a virtual supermarket experiment with data from 4,259 shopping events linked to varying price sets. Substitution or complementary effects within six frequently purchased food categories were analyzed. Products' own- and cross-price elasticities were analyzed using Almost Ideal Demand System models. RESULTS: Overall, 37.5% of cross-price elasticities were significant (p < 0.05) and included values greater than 0.10. Supplementary and complementary effects were particularly found in the dairy, meats and snacks categories. For example, a 1% increase in the price of high saturated fat dairy was associated with a 0.18% (SE 0.06%) increase in purchases of low saturated fat dairy. For name- and home-brand products, significant substitution effects were found in 50% (n = 3) of cases, but only in one case this was above the 0.10 threshold. CONCLUSIONS/POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Given the relatively low own-price elasticities and the limited substitution and complementary effects, relatively high taxes are needed to substantively increase healthy food purchases at the population level. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study included secondary analyses; the original trial was registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459 .

Reducing cardiometabolic risk in adults with a low socioeconomic position: protocol of the Supreme Nudge parallel cluster-randomised controlled supermarket trial.

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy lifestyle behaviours such as unhealthy dietary intake and insufficient physical activity (PA) tend to cluster in adults with a low socioeconomic position (SEP), putting them at high cardiometabolic disease risk. Educational approaches aiming to improve lifestyle behaviours show limited effect in this population. Using environmental and context-specific interventions may create opportunities for sustainable behaviour change. In this study protocol, we describe the design of a real-life supermarket trial combining nudging, pricing and a mobile PA app with the aim to improve lifestyle behaviours and lower cardiometabolic disease risk in adults with a low SEP. METHODS: The Supreme Nudge trial includes nudging and pricing strategies cluster-randomised on the supermarket level, with: i) control group receiving no intervention; ii) group 1 receiving healthy food nudges (e.g., product placement or promotion); iii) group 2 receiving nudges and pricing strategies (taxing of unhealthy foods and subsidizing healthy foods). In collaboration with a Dutch supermarket chain we will select nine stores located in low SEP neighbourhoods, with the nearest competitor store at > 1 km distance and managed by a committed store manager. Across the clusters, a personalized mobile coaching app targeting walking behaviour will be randomised at the individual level, with: i) control group; ii) a group receiving the mobile PA app. All participants (target n = 1485) should be Dutch-speaking, aged 45-75 years with a low SEP and purchase more than half of their household grocery shopping at the selected supermarkets. Participants will be recruited via advertisements and mail-invitations followed by community-outreach methods. Primary outcomes are changes in systolic blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, HbA1c and dietary intake after 12 months follow-up. Secondary outcomes are changes in diastolic blood pressure, blood lipid markers, waist circumference, steps per day, and behavioural factors including healthy food purchasing, food decision style, social cognitive factors related to nudges and to walking behaviours and customer satisfaction after 12 months follow-up. The trial will be reflexively monitored to support current and future implementation. DISCUSSION: The findings can guide future research and public health policies on reducing lifestyle-related health inequalities, and contribute to a supermarket-based health promotion intervention implementation roadmap. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch Trial Register ID NL7064, 30th of May, 2018.

Ultra-processed foods have the worst nutrient profile, yet they are the most available packaged products in a sample of New Zealand supermarkets.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the availability of packaged food products in New Zealand supermarkets by level of industrial processing, nutrient profiling score (NPSC), price (energy, unit and serving costs) and brand variety. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of cross-sectional survey data on packaged supermarket food and non-alcoholic beverages. Products were classified according to level of industrial processing (minimally, culinary and ultra-processed) and their NPSC. SETTING: Packaged foods available in four major supermarkets in Auckland, New Zealand. SUBJECTS: Packaged supermarket food products for the years 2011 and 2013. RESULTS: The majority (84% in 2011 and 83% in 2013) of packaged foods were classified as ultra-processed. A significant positive association was found between the level of industrial processing and NPSC, i.e., ultra-processed foods had a worse nutrient profile (NPSC=11.63) than culinary processed foods (NPSC=7.95), which in turn had a worse nutrient profile than minimally processed foods (NPSC=3.27), P<0.001. No clear associations were observed between the three price measures and level of processing. The study observed many variations of virtually the same product. The ten largest food manufacturers produced 35% of all packaged foods available. CONCLUSIONS: In New Zealand supermarkets, ultra-processed foods comprise the largest proportion of packaged foods and are less healthy than less processed foods. The lack of significant price difference between ultra- and less processed foods suggests ultra-processed foods might provide time-poor consumers with more value for money. These findings highlight the need to improve the supermarket food supply by reducing numbers of ultra-processed foods and by reformulating products to improve their nutritional profile.

Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study).

BACKGROUND: There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. METHODS/DESIGN: The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. DISCUSSION: The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy options. Findings will inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459 (registered 3 February 2016).

Testing for baseline differences in randomized controlled trials: an unhealthy research behavior that is hard to eradicate.

BACKGROUND: According to the CONSORT statement, significance testing of baseline differences in randomized controlled trials should not be performed. In fact, this practice has been discouraged by numerous authors throughout the last forty years. During that time span, reporting of baseline differences has substantially decreased in the leading general medical journals. Our own experience in the field of nutrition behavior research however, is that co-authors, reviewers and even editors are still very persistent in their demand for these tests. The aim of this paper is therefore to negate this demand by providing clear evidence as to why testing for baseline differences between intervention groups statistically is superfluous and why such results should not be published. DISCUSSION: Testing for baseline differences is often propagated because of the belief that it shows whether randomization was successful and it identifies real or important differences between treatment arms that should be accounted for in the statistical analyses. Especially the latter argument is flawed, because it ignores the fact that the prognostic strength of a variable is also important when the interest is in adjustment for confounding. In addition, including prognostic variables as covariates can increase the precision of the effect estimate. This means that choosing covariates based on significance tests for baseline differences might lead to omissions of important covariates and, less importantly, to inclusion of irrelevant covariates in the analysis. We used data from four supermarket trials on the effects of pricing strategies on fruit and vegetables purchases, to show that results from fully adjusted analyses sometimes do appreciably differ from results from analyses adjusted for significant baseline differences only. We propose to adjust for known or anticipated important prognostic variables. These could or should be pre-specified in trial protocols. Subsequently, authors should report results from the fully adjusted as well as crude analyses, especially for dichotomous and time to event data. Based on our arguments, which were illustrated by our findings, we propose that journals in and outside the field of nutrition behavior actively adopt the CONSORT 2010 statement on this topic by not publishing significance tests for baseline differences anymore.

Healthy or Unhealthy on Sale? A cross-sectional study on the proportion of healthy and unhealthy foods promoted through flyer advertising by supermarkets in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: It is generally assumed that supermarkets promote unhealthy foods more heavily than healthy foods. Promotional flyers could be an effective tool for encouraging healthier food choices; however, there is a lack of good-quality evidence on this topic. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the proportions of healthy and unhealthy foods on promotion in Dutch supermarket flyers. METHODS: Supermarket food promotions were assessed using the weekly promotional flyers of four major Dutch supermarkets over a period of eight weeks. All promotions were evaluated for healthiness, price discount, minimum purchase amount, product category and promotion type. The level of healthiness consists of a 'healthy' group; products which have a positive effect on preventing chronic diseases and can be eaten every day. The 'unhealthy' group contain products which have adverse effects on the prevention of chronic diseases. Data were analysed using ANOVA, independent t-tests and chi-square tests. RESULTS: A total of 1,495 promotions were included in this study. There were more promotions in the unhealthy category; 70% of promotions were categorised as unhealthy. The price discount was greater for the healthy promotions (mean 29.5%, SD 12.1) than for the two categories of unhealthy promotions (23.7%, SD 10.8; 25.4%, SD 10.5, respectively), a tendency which was mainly due to discounts in the fruit and vegetables category. To obtain the advertised discount, a significantly higher number of products had to be purchased in the unhealthy category than in the healthier categories. Promotions in the category meat, poultry and fish category occurred frequently. Compared to traditional supermarkets, discounter supermarkets had higher percentages of unhealthy food discounts, lower discount levels and lower minimum purchase amounts. CONCLUSION: This research confirmed that unhealthy foods are more frequently advertised than healthier foods in Dutch supermarket flyers. Moreover, consumers had to buy more products to achieve the discount when the promotion was categorized as unhealthy, providing extra incentive for buying additional unhealthy products. Future research should explore the proportion of healthy and unhealthy food discounts in relation to supermarkets' total product range, to determine if unhealthy products are over-represented in promotions or if there are more unhealthy products stocked in supermarkets overall. The findings of this study provide an important basis for future intervention and policy development aiming to achieve healthier supermarket environments.

Effects of different discount levels on healthy products coupled with a healthy choice label, special offer label or both: results from a web-based supermarket experiment.

BACKGROUND: Two strategies commonly recommended to improve population diets include food labels and food taxes/subsidies. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of both strategies separately and in combination. FINDINGS: An experiment with a 3x3 factorial design was conducted, including: three levels of price reduction (10%; 25%; and 50%) x three labels ('special offer', 'healthy choice' and 'special offer & healthy choice') on healthy foods defined following the Choices front-of-pack nutrition label. N=109 participants completed the experiment by conducting a typical weekly shop for their household at a three-dimensional web-based supermarket. Data were analysed using analysis of covariance. Participants receiving a 50% price discount purchased significantly more healthy foods for their household in a typical weekly shop than the 10% discount (+8.7 items; 95%CI=3.8-13.6) and the 25% discount group (+7.7 items; 95%CI=2.74 - 12.6). However, the proportion of healthy foods was not significantly higher and the discounts lead to an increased amount of energy purchased. No significant effects of the labels were found. CONCLUSION: This study brings some relevant insights into the effects of price discounts on healthier foods coupled with different labels and shows that price effects over shadowed food labels. However, price discounts seem to have ambiguous effects; they do encourage the purchase of healthy products, but also lead to increased energy purchases. More research is needed to examine how pricing strategies can work in directing consumers towards interchanging unhealthier options for healthier alternatives.

Does the availability of snack foods in supermarkets vary internationally?

BACKGROUND: Cross-country differences in dietary behaviours and obesity rates have been previously reported. Consumption of energy-dense snack foods and soft drinks are implicated as contributing to weight gain, however little is known about how the availability of these items within supermarkets varies internationally. This study assessed variations in the display of snack foods and soft drinks within a sample of supermarkets across eight countries. METHODS: Within-store audits were used to evaluate and compare the availability of potato chips (crisps), chocolate, confectionery and soft drinks. Displays measured included shelf length and the proportion of checkouts and end-of-aisle displays containing these products. Audits were conducted in a convenience sample of 170 supermarkets across eight developed nations (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden, United Kingdom (UK), and United States of America (US)). RESULTS: The mean total aisle length of snack foods (adjusted for store size) was greatest in supermarkets from the UK (56.4 m) and lowest in New Zealand (21.7 m). When assessed by individual item, the greatest aisle length devoted to chips, chocolate and confectionery was found in UK supermarkets while the greatest aisle length dedicated to soft drinks was in Australian supermarkets. Only stores from the Netherlands (41%) had less than 70% of checkouts featuring displays of snack foods or soft drinks. CONCLUSION: Whilst between-country variations were observed, overall results indicate high levels of snack food and soft drinks displays within supermarkets across the eight countries. Exposure to snack foods is largely unavoidable within supermarkets, increasing the likelihood of purchases and particularly those made impulsively.

Approaches to addressing the rise in obesity levels.

Levels of obesity and overweight are increasing globally, with affected individuals often experiencing health issues and reduced quality of life. The pathogenesis of obesity is complex and multifactorial, and effective solutions have been elusive. In this Viewpoint, experts in the fields of medical therapy, adipocyte biology, exercise and muscle, bariatric surgery, genetics, and public health give their perspectives on current and future progress in addressing the rising prevalence of obesity.

The effects of a 25% discount on fruits and vegetables: results of a randomized trial in a three-dimensional web-based supermarket.

BACKGROUND: Lowering the price of fruit and vegetables is a promising strategy in stimulating the purchase of those foods. However, the true effects of this strategy are not well studied and it is unclear how the money saved is spent. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of a 25% discount on fruits and vegetables on food purchases in a supermarket environment. METHODS: A randomized controlled trial with two research conditions was conducted: a control condition with regular prices (n = 52) and an experimental condition with a 25% discount on fruits and vegetables (n = 63). The experiment was carried out using a three-dimensional web-based supermarket, which is a software application in the image of a real supermarket. Data were collected in 2010 in the Netherlands. Participants received a fixed budget and were asked to buy weekly household groceries at the web-based supermarket. Differences in fruit and vegetable purchases, differences in expenditures in other food categories and differences in total calories were analyzed using independent samples t-tests and multiple linear regression models accounting for potential effect modifiers and confounders. RESULTS: The purchased amount of fruit plus vegetables was significantly higher in the experimental condition compared to the control condition (Δ984 g per household per week, p = .03) after appropriate adjustments. This corresponds to a 25% difference compared to the control group. Both groups had similar expenditures in unhealthier food categories, including desserts, soda, crisps, candy and chocolate. Furthermore, both groups purchased an equal number of food items and an equal amount of calories, indicating that participants in the discount condition did not spend the money they saved from the discounts on other foods than fruits and vegetables. CONCLUSION: A 25% discount on fruits and vegetables was effective in stimulating purchases of those products and did neither lead to higher expenditures in unhealthier food categories nor to higher total calories purchased. Future studies in real supermarkets need to confirm these findings.

Introducing taxes, subsidies or both: the effects of various food pricing strategies in a web-based supermarket randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: Fiscal policies may form a solution in improving dietary intake. This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of varying taxing and subsiding schemes to stimulate healthier food purchases. METHODS: A randomized controlled trial with three levels of price reduction on healthy foods (no; 25%; 50%)×three levels of price increase on unhealthy foods (5%; 10%; 25%) factorial design was used. 150 participants were randomized into one of nine conditions and were asked to purchase groceries at a web-based supermarket. Data were collected in the Netherlands in January-February 2010 and analyzed using analysis of covariance. RESULTS: Subjects receiving 50% discount purchased significantly more healthy foods than subjects receiving no (mean difference=6.62 items, p<0.01) or 25% discount (mean difference=4.87 items, p<0.05). Moreover, these subjects purchased more vegetables (mean difference=821 g;p<0.05 compared to no discount). However, participants with the highest discount also purchased significantly more calories. No significant effects of the price increases on unhealthy foods were found. CONCLUSION: Price decreases are effective in stimulating healthy food purchases, but the proportion of healthy foods remains unaffected. Price increases up to 25% on unhealthier products do not significantly affect food purchases. Future studies are important to validate these results in real supermarkets and across different countries.

[Health-related food taxes and the new Dutch government: from ambitions to real measures]. / Gezondheidsbelastingen in Rutte IV.

The new Dutch government has the ambition to implement several health-related food taxes. We provide an evidence-based agenda for improving population health with these policy ambitions. First, we argue that a sugary drinks tax should be at least 10, preferably 20%, comparable to the UK sugar industry levy. The new government omits alcohol, whereas Minimum Unit Pricing provides a proportionate measure for decreasing alcohol abuse. A broader tax on unhealthy foods, such as a tax on foods high in added sugar, and a zero rate on value-added taxes for fruits and vegetables, are effective in improving overall diet. However, these policies will encounter more legal and technical hurdles, although there are proofs of success in other countries. The listed policy ambitions will have a higher chance of success if implementation issues are seriously considered, and if public health goals are coupled to goals of public finance and environmental sustainability.