Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota.

Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) marine ecosystems have been changing for at least the last 30 years, including in response to increasing ocean temperatures and changes in the extent and seasonality of sea ice; the magnitude and direction of these changes differ between regions around Antarctica that could see populations of the same species changing differently in different regions. This article reviews current and expected changes in ASO physical habitats in response to climate change. It then reviews how these changes may impact the autecology of marine biota of this polar region: microbes, zooplankton, salps, Antarctic krill, fish, cephalopods, marine mammals, seabirds, and benthos. The general prognosis for ASO marine habitats is for an overall warming and freshening, strengthening of westerly winds, with a potential pole-ward movement of those winds and the frontal systems, and an increase in ocean eddy activity. Many habitat parameters will have regionally specific changes, particularly relating to sea ice characteristics and seasonal dynamics. Lower trophic levels are expected to move south as the ocean conditions in which they are currently found move pole-ward. For Antarctic krill and finfish, the latitudinal breadth of their range will depend on their tolerance of warming oceans and changes to productivity. Ocean acidification is a concern not only for calcifying organisms but also for crustaceans such as Antarctic krill; it is also likely to be the most important change in benthic habitats over the coming century. For marine mammals and birds, the expected changes primarily relate to their flexibility in moving to alternative locations for food and the energetic cost of longer or more complex foraging trips for those that are bound to breeding colonies. Few species are sufficiently well studied to make comprehensive species-specific vulnerability assessments possible. Priorities for future work are discussed.

Population dynamics and spatial structure of the grey rockcod (Lepidonotothen squamifrons) in the vicinity of Heard Island and the McDonald Islands.

The grey rockcod, Lepidonotothen squamifrons is an important prey species for seals, penguins and Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in the Southern Ocean. Across the Kerguelen Plateau, the species was fished to commercial extinction (ca. 152 000 tonnes between 1971 and 1978) prior to the declaration of the French Exclusive Economic Zone in 1979 and the Australian Fishing Zone in 1981. In this study we estimate; age, growth, maturity, sex ratio, body condition (weight-at-length), and population density of grey rockcod using data from 19 trawl surveys from 1990 to 2014. There appeared to be three distinct geographical populations, with differences in biological parameters within each population. This study has identified separate metapopulations within the southern region of the Kerguelen Plateau and we recommend that management should take into account the different characteristics of these populations, and that this meta-population structure may be a factor in why this species required several decades to show signs of recovery.

Heard off Heard: Acoustic detections of sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) and other cetaceans off Heard Island.

An underwater acoustic recorder was moored off Heard Island from September 2017 through March 2018 to listen for marine mammals. Analysis of data was initially conducted by visual inspection of long-term spectral averages to reveal sounds from sperm whales, Antarctic and pygmy blue whales, fin whales, minke whales, odontocete whistles, and noise from nearby ships. Automated detection of sperm whale clicks revealed they were seldom detected from September through January (n = 35 h) but were detected nearly every day of February and March (n = 684 h). Additional analysis of these detections revealed further diel and demographic patterns.

Commercial fishing patterns influence odontocete whale-longline interactions in the Southern Ocean.

The emergence of longline fishing around the world has been concomitant with an increase in depredation-interactions by odontocete whales (removal of fish caught on hooks), resulting in substantial socio-economic and ecological impacts. The extent, trends and underlying mechanisms driving these interactions remain poorly known. Using long-term (2003-2017) datasets from seven major Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) longline fisheries, this study assessed the levels and inter-annual trends of sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) and/or killer whale (Orcinus orca) interactions as proportions of fishing time (days) and fishing area (spatial cells). The role of fishing patterns in explaining between-fisheries variations of probabilities of odontocete interactions was investigated. While interaction levels remained globally stable since the early 2000s, they varied greatly between fisheries from 0 to >50% of the fishing days and area. Interaction probabilities were influenced by the seasonal concentration of fishing effort, size of fishing areas, density of vessels, their mobility and the depth at which they operated. The results suggest that between-fisheries variations of interaction probabilities are largely explained by the extent to which vessels provide whales with opportunities for interactions. Determining the natural distribution of whales will, therefore, allow fishers to implement better strategies of spatio-temporal avoidance of depredation.

Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina Linn.) depredate toothfish longlines in the midnight zone.

Humans have devised fishing technologies that compete with marine predators for fish resources world-wide. One such fishery for the Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) has developed interactions with a range of predators, some of which are marine mammals capable of diving to extreme depths for extended periods. A deep-sea camera system deployed within a toothfish fishery operating in the Southern Ocean acquired the first-ever video footage of an extreme-diver, the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina), depredating catch from longlines set at depths in excess of 1000m. The interactions recorded were non-lethal, however independent fisheries observer reports confirm elephant seal-longline interactions can be lethal. The seals behaviour of depredating catch at depth during the line soak-period differs to other surface-breathing species and thus presents a unique challenge to mitigate their by-catch. Deployments of deep-sea cameras on exploratory fishing gear prior to licencing and permit approvals would gather valuable information regarding the nature of interactions between deep diving/dwelling marine species and longline fisheries operating at bathypelagic depths. Furthermore, the positive identification by sex and age class of species interacting with commercial fisheries would assist in formulating management plans and mitigation strategies founded on species-specific life-history strategies.

Bio-physical characterisation of polynyas as a key foraging habitat for juvenile male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica.

Antarctic coastal polynyas are persistent open water areas in the sea ice zone, and regions of high biological productivity thought to be important foraging habitat for marine predators. This study quantified southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) habitat use within and around the polynyas of the Prydz Bay region (63°E- 88°E) in East Antarctica, and examined the bio-physical characteristics structuring polynyas as foraging habitat. Output from a climatological regional ocean model was used to provide context for in situ temperature-salinity vertical profiles collected by tagged elephant seals and to characterise the physical properties structuring polynyas. Biological properties were explored using remotely-sensed surface chlorophyll (Chl-a) and, qualitatively, historical fish assemblage data. Spatially gridded residence time of seals was examined in relation to habitat characteristics using generalized additive mixed models. The results showed clear polynya usage during early autumn and increasingly concentrated usage during early winter. Bathymetry, Chl-a, surface net heat flux (representing polynya location), and bottom temperature were identified as significant bio-physical predictors of the spatio-temporal habitat usage. The findings from this study confirm that the most important marine habitats for juvenile male southern elephant seals within Prydz Bay region are polynyas. A hypothesis exists regarding the seasonal evolution of primary productivity, coupling from surface to subsurface productivity and supporting elevated rates of secondary production in the upper water column during summer-autumn. An advancement to this hypothesis is proposed here, whereby this bio-physical coupling is likely to extend throughout the water column as it becomes fully convected during autumn-winter, to also promote pelagic-benthic linkages important for benthic foraging within polynyas.