Temporal Risk of Nonfatal Cardiovascular Events After Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation: A Population-based Study.

Rationale: Cardiovascular events after chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations are recognized. Studies to date have been post hoc analyses of trials, did not differentiate exacerbation severity, included death in the cardiovascular outcome, or had insufficient power to explore individual outcomes temporally.Objectives: We explore temporal relationships between moderate and severe exacerbations and incident, nonfatal hospitalized cardiovascular events in a primary care-derived COPD cohort.Methods: We included people with COPD in England from 2014 to 2020, from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care database. The index date was the date of first COPD exacerbation or, for those without exacerbations, date upon eligibility. We determined composite and individual cardiovascular events (acute coronary syndrome, arrhythmia, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and pulmonary hypertension) from linked hospital data. Adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate average and time-stratified adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs).Measurements and Main Results: Among 213,466 patients, 146,448 (68.6%) had any exacerbation; 119,124 (55.8%) had moderate exacerbations, and 27,324 (12.8%) had severe exacerbations. A total of 40,773 cardiovascular events were recorded. There was an immediate period of cardiovascular relative rate after any exacerbation (1-14 d; aHR, 3.19 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.71-3.76]), followed by progressively declining yet maintained effects, elevated after one year (aHR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.78-1.91]). Hazard ratios were highest 1-14 days after severe exacerbations (aHR, 14.5 [95% CI, 12.2-17.3]) but highest 14-30 days after moderate exacerbations (aHR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.63-2.31]). Cardiovascular outcomes with the greatest two-week effects after a severe exacerbation were arrhythmia (aHR, 12.7 [95% CI, 10.3-15.7]) and heart failure (aHR, 8.31 [95% CI, 6.79-10.2]).Conclusions: Cardiovascular events after moderate COPD exacerbations occur slightly later than after severe exacerbations; heightened relative rates remain beyond one year irrespective of severity. The period immediately after an exacerbation presents a critical opportunity for clinical intervention and treatment optimization to prevent future cardiovascular events.

Eligibility of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease for inclusion in randomised control trials investigating triple therapy: a study using routinely collected data.

BACKGROUND: Randomised control trials (RCTs) with strict eligibility criteria can lead to trial populations not commonly seen in clinical practice. We described the proportion of people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in England eligible for RCTs investigating treatment with triple therapy. METHODS: MEDLINE and Clinicaltrials.gov were searched for RCTs investigating triple therapy and eligibility criteria for each trial were extracted. Using routinely collected primary care data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum linked with Hospital Episode Statistics, we defined a population of COPD patients registered at a general practice in England, who were ≥ 40 years old, and had a history of smoking. Inclusion date was January 1, 2020. Patients who died earlier or left the general practice were excluded. Eligibility criteria for each RCT was applied to the population of COPD patients and the proportion of patients meeting each trial eligibility criteria were described. RESULTS: 26 RCTs investigating triple therapy were identified from the literature. The most common eligibility criteria were post-bronchodilator FEV1% predicted 30-80%, ≥ 2 moderate/≥ 1 severe exacerbations 12-months prior, no moderate exacerbations one-month prior and no severe exacerbations three-months prior, and the use of maintenance therapy or ICS use prior to inclusion. After applying each RCT eligibility criteria to our population of 79,810 COPD patients, a median of 11.2% [interquartile range (IQR) 1.8-17.4] of patients met eligibility criteria. The most discriminatory criteria included the presence exacerbations of COPD and previous COPD related medication use with a median of 67.6% (IQR 8.5-73.4) and 63% (IQR 69.3-38.4) of COPD patients not meeting these criteria, respectively. CONCLUSION: Data from these RCTs may not be generalisable to the wider population of people with COPD seen in everyday clinical practice and real-world evidence studies are needed to supplement trials to understand effectiveness in all people with COPD.

Factors associated with non-fatal heart failure and atrial fibrillation or flutter within the first 30 days post COPD exacerbation: a nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: An immediate, temporal risk of heart failure and arrhythmias after a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) exacerbation has been demonstrated, particularly in the first month post-exacerbation. However, the clinical profile of patients who develop heart failure (HF) or atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) following exacerbation is unclear. Therefore we examined factors associated with people being hospitalized for HF or AF, respectively, following a COPD exacerbation. METHODS: We conducted two nested case-control studies, using primary care electronic healthcare records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, Office for National Statistics for mortality, and socioeconomic data (2014-2020). Cases had hospitalization for HF or AF within 30 days of a COPD exacerbation, with controls matched by GP practice (HF 2:1;AF 3:1). We used conditional logistic regression to explore demographic and clinical factors associated with HF and AF hospitalization. RESULTS: Odds of HF hospitalization (1,569 cases, 3,138 controls) increased with age, type II diabetes, obesity, HF and arrhythmia history, exacerbation severity (hospitalization), most cardiovascular medications, GOLD airflow obstruction, MRC dyspnea score, and chronic kidney disease. Strongest associations were for severe exacerbations (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=6.25, 95%CI 5.10-7.66), prior HF (aOR=2.57, 95%CI 1.73-3.83), age≥80 years (aOR=2.41, 95%CI 1.88-3.09), and prior diuretics prescription (aOR=2.81, 95%CI 2.29-3.45). Odds of AF hospitalization (841 cases, 2,523 controls) increased with age, male sex, severe exacerbation, arrhythmia and pulmonary hypertension history and most cardiovascular medications. Strongest associations were for severe exacerbations (aOR=5.78, 95%CI 4.45-7.50), age≥80 years (aOR=3.15, 95%CI 2.26-4.40), arrhythmia (aOR=3.55, 95%CI 2.53-4.98), pulmonary hypertension (aOR=3.05, 95%CI 1.21-7.68), and prescription of anticoagulants (aOR=3.81, 95%CI 2.57-5.64), positive inotropes (aOR=2.29, 95%CI 1.41-3.74) and anti-arrhythmic drugs (aOR=2.14, 95%CI 1.10-4.15). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiopulmonary factors were associated with hospitalization for HF in the 30 days following a COPD exacerbation, while only cardiovascular-related factors and exacerbation severity were associated with AF hospitalization. Understanding factors will help target people for prevention.

Left-sided heart failure burden and mortality in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is prevalent in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), yet the extent of left-sided heart failure (HF) burden, whether this has changed with time and whether HF impacts mortality risk in these patients are unknown. The aims of this study were therefore to determine the temporal trends in incidence and prevalence of left-sided HF in patients with IPF in England and compare these to published estimates in the general population and those with comparable chronic respiratory conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), as well as determine the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in patients with comorbid left-sided HF and IPF at population-level using electronic healthcare data. METHODS: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum primary-care data linked to mortality and secondary-care data was used to identify IPF patients in England. Left-sided HF prevalence and incidence rates were calculated for each calendar year between 2010 and 2019, stratified by age and sex. Risk of all-cause, cardiovascular and IPF-specific mortality was calculated using multivariate Cox regression. RESULTS: From 40,577patients with an IPF code in CPRD Aurum, 25, 341 IPF patients met inclusion criteria. Left-sided HF prevalence decreased from 33.4% (95% CI 32.2-34.6) in 2010 to 20.9% (20.0-21.7) in 2019. Left-sided HF incidence rate per 100 person-years (95% CI) remained stable between 2010 and 2017 but decreased from 4.3 (3.9-4.8) in 2017 to 3.4 (3.0-3.9) in 2019. Throughout follow-up, prevalence and incidence were higher in men and with increasing age. Comorbid HF was associated with poorer survival (adjusted HR (95%CI) 1.08 (1.03-1.14) for all-cause mortality; 1.32 (1.09-1.59) for cardiovascular mortality). CONCLUSION: Left-sided HF burden in IPF patients in England remains high, with incidence almost 4 times higher than in COPD, a comparable lung disease with similar cardiovascular risk factors. Comorbid left-sided HF is also a poor prognostic marker. More substantial reduction in left-sided HF prevalence than incidence suggests persistently high IPF mortality. Given rising IPF incidence in the UK, this calls for better management of comorbidities such as left-sided HF to help optimise IPF survival.

Accelerated FEV1 decline and risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in a primary care population of COPD patients.

Accelerated lung function decline has been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a general population, but little is known about this association in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We investigated the association between accelerated lung function decline and CVD outcomes and mortality in a primary care COPD population.COPD patients without a history of CVD were identified in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)-GOLD primary care dataset (n=36 382). Accelerated decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) was defined using the fastest quartile of the COPD population's decline. A Cox regression was used to assess the association between baseline accelerated FEV1 decline and a composite CVD outcome over follow-up (myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease and CVD mortality). The model was adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, body mass index, history of asthma, hypertension, diabetes, statin use, Modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnoea score, exacerbation frequency and baseline FEV1 % predicted.6110 COPD patients (16.8%) had a CVD event during follow-up; median length of follow-up was 3.6 years (interquartile range (IQR) 1.7-6.1 years). Median rate of FEV1 decline was -19.4 mL·year-1 (IQR -40.5-1.9); 9095 patients (25%) had accelerated FEV1 decline (> -40.5 mL·year-1), 27 287 (75%) did not (≤ -40.5 mL·year-1). Risk of CVD and mortality was similar between patients with and without accelerated FEV1 decline (HRadj 0.98, 95% CI 0.90-1.06). Corresponding risk estimates were 0.99 (95% CI 0.83-1.20) for heart failure, 0.89 (95% CI 0.70-1.12) for myocardial infarction, 1.01 (95% CI 0.82-1.23) for stroke, 0.97 (95% CI 0.81-1.15) for atrial fibrillation, 1.02 (95% CI 0.87-1.19) for coronary artery disease and 0.94 (95% CI 0.71-1.25) for CVD mortality. Rather, risk of CVD was associated with a mMRC score ≤2 and two or more exacerbations in the year prior.CVD outcomes and mortality were associated with exacerbation frequency and severity and increased mMRC dyspnoea score but not with accelerated FEV1 decline.

Inhaled corticosteroids and FEV1 decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review.

Rate of FEV1 decline in COPD is heterogeneous and the extent to which inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) influence the rate of decline is unclear. The majority of previous reviews have investigated specific ICS and non-ICS inhalers and have consisted of randomised control trials (RCTs), which have specific inclusion and exclusion criteria and short follow up times. We aimed to investigate the association between change in FEV1 and ICS-containing medications in COPD patients over longer follow up times.MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched and literature comparing change in FEV1 in COPD patients taking ICS-containing medications with patients taking non-ICS-containing medications were identified. Titles, abstract, and full texts were screened and information extracted using the PICO checklist. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool and a descriptive synthesis of the literature was carried out due to high heterogeneity of included studies.Seventeen studies met our inclusion criteria. We found that the difference in change in FEV1 in people using ICS and non-ICS containing medications depended on the study follow-up time. Shorter follow-up studies (1 year or less) were more likely to report an increase in FEV1 from baseline in both patients on ICS and in patients on non-ICS-containing medications, with the majority of these studies showing a greater increase in FEV1 in patients on ICS-containing medications. Longer follow-up studies (greater than 1 year) were more likely to report a decline in FEV1 from baseline in patients on ICS and in patients on non-ICS containing medications but rates of FEV1 decline were similar.Further studies are needed to better understand changes in FEV1 when ICS-containing medications are prescribed and to determine whether ICS-containing medications influence rate of decline in FEV1 in the long term. Results from inclusive trials and observational patient cohorts may provide information more generalisable to a population of COPD patients.

Using Routinely Collected Electronic Healthcare Record Data to Investigate Fibrotic Multimorbidity in England.

Background: Electronic healthcare records (EHRs) are used to document diagnoses, symptoms, tests, and prescriptions. Though not primarily collected for research purposes, owing to the size of the data as well as the depth of information collected, they have been used extensively to conduct epidemiological research. The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) is an EHR database containing representative data of the UK population with regard to age, sex, race, and social deprivation measures. Fibrotic conditions are characterised by excessive scarring, contributing towards organ dysfunction and eventual organ failure. Fibrosis is associated with ageing as well as many other factors, it is hypothesised that fibrotic conditions are caused by the same underlying pathological mechanism. We calculated the prevalence of fibrotic conditions (as defined in a previous Delphi survey of clinicians) as well as the prevalence of fibrotic multimorbidity (the proportion of people with multiple fibrotic conditions). Methods: We included a random sample of 993,370 UK adults, alive, and enrolled at a UK general practice, providing data to the CPRD Aurum database as of 1st of January 2015. Individuals had to be eligible for linkage to hospital episode statistics (HES) and ONS death registration. We calculated the point prevalence of fibrotic conditions and multi-morbid fibrosis on the 1st of January 2015. Using death records of those who died in 2015, we investigated the prevalence of fibrosis associated death. We explored the most commonly co-occurring fibrotic conditions and determined the settings in which diagnoses were commonly made (primary care, secondary care or after death). Results: The point prevalence of any fibrotic condition was 21.46%. In total, 6.00% of people had fibrotic multimorbidity. Of the people who died in 2015, 34.82% had a recording of a fibrotic condition listed on their death certificate. Conclusion: The key finding was that fibrotic multimorbidity affects approximately 1 in 16 people.

Fibrotic conditions are scarring conditions which impact the way an organ functions and eventually lead to organ failure. We studied routinely collected health data from GPs, hospitals, and death certificates to estimate the percentage of UK adults who had fibrotic diseases. We found that 1 in 5 people had at least one fibrotic disease, and we also found that 1 in 16 people had more than one fibrotic disease.

Inhaled Corticosteroid Withdrawal and Change in Lung Function in Primary Care Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in England.

Rationale: In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) are associated with pneumonia, highlighting the importance of investigating subgroups of patients who may benefit from prolonged ICS use. Despite this, the WISDOM (Withdrawal of Inhaled Steroids during Optimized Bronchodilator Management) trial found a greater decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) in patients with COPD who withdrew from ICS compared with patients who remained on triple therapy. Objectives: We investigated the association between ICS withdrawal and the rate of FEV1 decline in patients with COPD using routinely collected electronic healthcare records. Methods: Using CPRD (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) Aurum and Hospital episode statistics, we included patients with COPD who had been on triple therapy for at least 4 months. Patients were categorized into those who withdrew from ICS and those who remained on triple therapy during follow-up. Three cohorts were created: 1) patients meeting the WISDOM trial eligibility criteria; 2) patients with COPD not restricted by the WISDOM trial eligibility criteria; and 3) patients who would have been excluded from the WISDOM trial on the basis of their comorbidities. Mixed linear regression was used to model the association between ICS withdrawal and the rate of FEV1 decline (ml/year) adjusted for baseline characteristics. Results: A total of 6,008 patients with COPD met the WISDOM eligibility criteria, of which 9.0% withdrew from ICS. Mean rates of FEV1 declined -7.8 ml/year (95% confidence interval [CI], -19.7 to 4.1) for withdrawers and -15.2 ml/year (95% CI, -18.7 to -11.8) for those who remained on triple therapy (difference, P = 0.264). A total of 60,645 patients with COPD were not restricted by the WISDOM eligibility criteria. The mean rate of FEV1 decline was -32.6 ml/year (95% CI, -33.6 to -31.5) for withdrawers and -36.4 ml/year (95% CI, -39.4 to -33.4) for those who remained on triple therapy. A total of 32,882 patients with COPD were included in the last population representing those who would have been excluded from the WISDOM trial because of their comorbidities. The mean rate of FEV1 decline was -29.4 ml/year (95% CI, -30 to -28.1) in withdrawers and -31.3 ml/year (95% CI, -35 to -27.5) in those who remained on triple therapy. Conclusions: The rate of FEV1 decline was similar between patients on triple therapy and patients who withdrew from ICS regardless of the specific COPD population studied. In routine clinical practice, few patients with COPD meet WISDOM eligibility criteria, and few patients are withdrawn from ICS.

Challenges and Pitfalls of Using Repeat Spirometry Recordings in Routine Primary Care Data to Measure FEV1 Decline in a COPD Population.

BACKGROUND: Electronic healthcare records (EHR) are increasingly used in epidemiological studies but are often viewed as lacking quality compared to randomised control trials and prospective cohorts. Studies of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often use the rate of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) decline as an outcome; however, its definition and robustness in EHR have not been investigated. We aimed to investigate how the rate of FEV1 decline differs by the criteria used in an EHR database. METHODS: Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics were used. Patient populations were defined using 8 sets of criteria around repeated FEV1 measurements. At a minimum, patients had a diagnosis of COPD, were ≥35 years old, were current or ex-smokers, and had data recorded from 2004. FEV1 measurements recorded during follow-up were identified. Thereafter, eight populations were defined based on criteria around: i) the exclusion of patients or individual measurements with potential measurement error; ii) minimum number of FEV1 measurements; iii) minimum time interval between measurements; iv) specific timing of measurements; v) minimum follow-up time; and vi) the use of linked data. For each population, the rate of FEV1 decline was estimated using mixed linear regression. RESULTS: For 7/8 patient populations, rates of FEV1 decline (age and sex adjusted) were similar and ranged from -18.7mL/year (95% CI -19.2 to -18.2) to -16.5mL/year (95% CI -17.3 to -15.7). Rates of FEV1 decline in populations that excluded patients with potential measurement error ranged from -79.4mL/year (95% CI -80.7 to -78.2) to -46.8mL/year (95% CI -47.6 to -46.0). CONCLUSION: FEV1 decline remained similar in a COPD population regardless of number of FEV1 measurements, time intervals between measurements, follow-up period, exclusion of specific FEV1 measurements, and linkage to HES. However, exclusion of individuals with questionable data led to selection bias and faster rates of decline.

GP consultation rates for sequelae after acute covid-19 in patients managed in the community or hospital in the UK: population based study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the rates for consulting a general practitioner (GP) for sequelae after acute covid-19 in patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 and those managed in the community, and to determine how the rates change over time for patients in the community and after vaccination for covid-19. DESIGN: Population based study. SETTING: 1392 general practices in England contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. PARTICIPANTS: 456 002 patients with a diagnosis of covid-19 between 1 August 2020 and 14 February 2021 (44.7% men; median age 61 years), admitted to hospital within two weeks of diagnosis or managed in the community, and followed-up for a maximum of 9.2 months. A negative control group included individuals without covid-19 (n=38 511) and patients with influenza before the pandemic (n=21 803). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comparison of rates for consulting a GP for new symptoms, diseases, prescriptions, and healthcare use in individuals admitted to hospital and those managed in the community, separately, before and after covid-19 infection, using Cox regression and negative binomial regression for healthcare use. The analysis was repeated for the negative control and influenza cohorts. In individuals in the community, outcomes were also described over time after a diagnosis of covid-19, and compared before and after vaccination for individuals who were symptomatic after covid-19 infection, using negative binomial regression. RESULTS: Relative to the negative control and influenza cohorts, patients in the community (n=437 943) had significantly higher GP consultation rates for multiple sequelae, and the most common were loss of smell or taste, or both (adjusted hazard ratio 5.28, 95% confidence interval 3.89 to 7.17, P<0.001); venous thromboembolism (3.35, 2.87 to 3.91, P<0.001); lung fibrosis (2.41, 1.37 to 4.25, P=0.002), and muscle pain (1.89, 1.63 to 2.20, P<0.001); and also for healthcare use after a diagnosis of covid-19 compared with 12 months before infection. For absolute proportions, the most common outcomes ≥4 weeks after a covid-19 diagnosis in patients in the community were joint pain (2.5%), anxiety (1.2%), and prescriptions for non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (1.2%). Patients admitted to hospital (n=18 059) also had significantly higher GP consultation rates for multiple sequelae, most commonly for venous thromboembolism (16.21, 11.28 to 23.31, P<0.001), nausea (4.64, 2.24 to 9.21, P<0.001), prescriptions for paracetamol (3.68, 2.86 to 4.74, P<0.001), renal failure (3.42, 2.67 to 4.38, P<0.001), and healthcare use after a covid-19 diagnosis compared with 12 months before infection. For absolute proportions, the most common outcomes ≥4 weeks after a covid-19 diagnosis in patients admitted to hospital were venous thromboembolism (3.5%), joint pain (2.7%), and breathlessness (2.8%). In patients in the community, anxiety and depression, abdominal pain, diarrhoea, general pain, nausea, chest tightness, and tinnitus persisted throughout follow-up. GP consultation rates were reduced for all symptoms, prescriptions, and healthcare use, except for neuropathic pain, cognitive impairment, strong opiates, and paracetamol use in patients in the community after the first vaccination dose for covid-19 relative to before vaccination. GP consultation rates were also reduced for ischaemic heart disease, asthma, and gastro-oesophageal disease. CONCLUSIONS: GP consultation rates for sequelae after acute covid-19 infection differed between patients with covid-19 who were admitted to hospital and those managed in the community. For individuals in the community, rates of some sequelae decreased over time but those for others, such as anxiety and depression, persisted. Rates of some outcomes decreased after vaccination in this group.

Prediction of five-year mortality after COPD diagnosis using primary care records.

Accurate prognosis information after a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) would facilitate earlier and better informed decisions about the use of prevention strategies and advanced care plans. We therefore aimed to develop and validate an accurate prognosis model for incident COPD cases using only information present in general practitioner (GP) records at the point of diagnosis. Incident COPD patients between 2004-2012 over the age of 35 were studied using records from 396 general practices in England. We developed a model to predict all-cause five-year mortality at the point of COPD diagnosis, using 47,964 English patients. Our model uses age, gender, smoking status, body mass index, forced expiratory volume in 1-second (FEV1) % predicted and 16 co-morbidities (the same number as the Charlson Co-morbidity Index). The performance of our chosen model was validated in all countries of the UK (N = 48,304). Our model performed well, and performed consistently in validation data. The validation area under the curves in each country varied between 0.783-0.809 and the calibration slopes between 0.911-1.04. Our model performed better in this context than models based on the Charlson Co-morbidity Index or Cambridge Multimorbidity Score. We have developed and validated a model that outperforms general multimorbidity scores at predicting five-year mortality after COPD diagnosis. Our model includes only data routinely collected before COPD diagnosis, allowing it to be readily translated into clinical practice, and has been made available through an online risk calculator (https://skiddle.shinyapps.io/incidentcopdsurvival/).

Characteristics Associated with Accelerated Lung Function Decline in a Primary Care Population with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Background: Estimates for lung function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have differed by study setting and have not been described in a UK primary care population. Purpose: To describe rates of FEV1 and FVC decline in COPD and investigate characteristics associated with accelerated decline. Patients and Methods: Current/ex-smoking COPD patients (35 years+) who had at least 2 FEV1 or FVC measurements ≥6 months apart were included using Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Patients were followed up for a maximum of 13 years. Accelerated rate of lung function decline was defined as the fastest quartile of decline using mixed linear regression, and association with baseline characteristics was investigated using logistic regression. Results: A total of 72,683 and 50,649 COPD patients had at least 2 FEV1 or FVC measurements, respectively. Median rates of FEV1 and FVC changes or decline were -18.1mL/year (IQR: -31.6 to -6.0) and -22.7mL/year (IQR: -39.9 to -6.7), respectively. Older age, high socioeconomic status, being underweight, high mMRC dyspnoea and frequent AECOPD or severe AECOPD were associated with an accelerated rate of FEV1 and FVC decline. Current smoking, mild airflow obstruction and inhaled corticosteroid treatment were additionally associated with accelerated FEV1 decline whilst women, sputum production and severe airflow obstruction were associated with accelerated FVC decline. Conclusion: Rate of FEV1 and FVC decline was similar and showed similar heterogeneity. Whilst FEV1 and FVC shared associations with baseline characteristics, a few differences highlighted the importance of both lung function measures in COPD progression. We identified important characteristics that should be monitored for disease progression.

Eligibility for Lung Volume Reduction Surgery in Patients With COPD Identified in a UK Primary Care Setting.

BACKGROUND: Although lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) improves survival in appropriately selected patients with COPD, few procedures are performed. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence has recommended a more systematic approach to identifying potential candidates. We investigated LVRS referrals from a UK primary care population and aimed to establish an accurate estimate of eligible patients and determine a strategy for identifying potential candidates systematically. METHODS: Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD (a primary care database) and the linked Hospital Episode Statistics inpatient and Diagnostic Imaging Dataset were used. Patients with COPD who had undergone LVRS, patients who met basic eligibility criteria for further screening for LVRS, and patients meeting a more stringent eligibility criteria were identified from April 2012 to September 2015. Thoracic CT scan, pulmonary rehabilitation status, referral to respiratory outpatient clinics, and acute exacerbation of COPD requiring hospitalization were compared between actual LVRS recipients and potentially eligible patients. RESULTS: Among the 73,697 patients with COPD included, 36 (0.05%) received LVRS, 5,984 (8.1%) met basic eligibility criteria, and 159 (0.2%) met more stringent eligibility criteria. LVRS recipients were younger (mean age ± SD, 64 ± 9.2 years) than the stringently eligible patients (mean age ± SD, 69 ± 8.9 years; P = .01). Few patients meeting stringent eligibility criteria (6.9%) had a CT scan of the thorax in the preceding 3 years or had been referred for assessment in secondary care. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial unmet need exists among patients with COPD who could potentially benefit from a lung volume reduction procedure but who are not being investigated or referred to consider this possibility.

Inhaled corticosteroids, blood eosinophils, and FEV1 decline in patients with COPD in a large UK primary health care setting.

Background: Inhaled corticosteroid (ICS)-containing medications slow rate of decline of FEV1. Blood eosinophil (EOS) levels are associated with the degree of exacerbation reduction with ICS. Purpose: We investigated whether FEV1 decline differs between patients with and without ICS, stratified by blood EOS level. Patients and methods: The UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (primary care records) and Hospital Episode Statistics (hospital records) were used to identify COPD patients aged 35 years or older, who were current or ex-smokers with ≥2 FEV1 measurements ≥6 months apart. Prevalent ICS use and the nearest EOS count to start of follow-up were identified. Patients were classified at baseline as higher stratum EOS (≥150 cell/µL) on ICS; higher stratum EOS not on ICS; lower stratum EOS (<150 cells/µL) on ICS; and lower stratum EOS not on ICS. In addition, an incident ICS cohort was used to investigate the rate of FEV1 change by EOS and incident ICS use. Mixed-effects linear regression was used to compare rates of FEV1 change in mL/year. Results: A total of 26,675 COPD patients met our inclusion criteria (median age 69, 46% female). The median duration of follow up was 4.2 years. The rate of FEV1 change in prevalent ICS users was slower than non-ICS users (-12.6 mL/year vs -21.1 mL/year; P =0.001). The rate of FEV1 change was not significantly different when stratified by EOS level. The rate of FEV1 change in incident ICS users increased (+4.2 mL/year) vs -21.2 mL/year loss in non-ICS users; P<0.001. In patients with high EOS, incident ICS patients showed an increase in FEV1 (+12 mL/year) compared to non-ICS users whose FEV1 decreased (-20.8 mL/year); P<0.001. No statistical difference was seen in low EOS patients. Incident ICS use is associated with an improvement in FEV1 change, however, over time this association is lost. Conclusion: Regardless of blood EOS level, prevalent ICS use is associated with slower rates of FEV1 decline in COPD.