Anti-Spike IgG antibodies as correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in the pre-Omicron and Omicron era.

Anti-Spike IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, which are elicited by vaccination and infection, are correlates of protection against infection with pre-Omicron variants. Whether this association can be generalized to infections with Omicron variants is unclear. We conducted a retrospective cohort study with 8457 blood donors in Tyrol, Austria, analyzing 15,340 anti-Spike IgG antibody measurements from March 2021 to December 2022 assessed by Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG II chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay. Using a Bayesian joint model, we estimated antibody trajectories and adjusted hazard ratios for incident SARS-CoV-2 infection ascertained by self-report or seroconversion of anti-Nucleocapsid antibodies. At the time of their earliest available anti-Spike IgG antibody measurement (median November 23, 2021), participants had a median age of 46.0 years (IQR 32.8-55.2), with 45.3% being female, 41.3% having a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, and 75.5% having received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Among 6159 participants with endpoint data, 3700 incident SARS-CoV-2 infections with predominantly Omicron sublineages were recorded over a median of 8.8 months (IQR 5.7-12.4). The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio for SARS-CoV-2 associated with having twice the anti-Spike IgG antibody titer was 0.875 (95% credible interval 0.868-0.881) overall, 0.842 (0.827-0.856) during 2021, and 0.884 (0.877-0.891) during 2022 (all p < 0.001). The associations were similar in females and males (Pinteraction = 0.673) and across age (Pinteraction = 0.590). Higher anti-Spike IgG antibody titers were associated with reduced risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection across the entire observation period. While the magnitude of association was slightly weakened in the Omicron era, anti-Spike IgG antibody continues to be a suitable correlate of protection against newer SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Effectiveness of a fourth SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose in previously infected individuals from Austria.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence is limited on the effectiveness of a fourth vaccine dose against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in populations with prior severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. We estimated the risk of COVID-19 deaths and SARS-CoV-2 infections according to vaccination status in previously infected individuals in Austria. METHODS: This is a nationwide retrospective observational study. We calculated age and gender adjusted Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) of COVID-19 deaths (primary outcome) and SARS-CoV-2 infections (secondary outcome) from 1 November to 31 December 2022, primarily comparing individuals with four versus three vaccine doses. Relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) was calculated as (1-HR) X 100. RESULTS: Among 3,986,312 previously infected individuals, 281,291 (7,1%) had four and 1,545,242 (38.8%) had three vaccinations at baseline. We recorded 69 COVID-19 deaths and 89,056 SARS-CoV-2 infections. rVE for four versus three vaccine doses was -24% (95% CI: -120 to 30) against COVID-19 deaths, and 17% (95% CI: 14-19) against SARS-CoV-2 infections. This latter effect rapidly diminished over time and infection risk with four vaccinations was higher compared to less vaccinated individuals during extended follow-up until June 2023. Adjusted HR (95% CI) for all-cause mortality for four versus three vaccinations was 0.79 (0.74-0.85). DISCUSSION: In previously infected individuals, a fourth vaccination was not associated with COVID-19 death risk, but with transiently reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections and reversal of this effect in longer follow-up. All-cause mortality data suggest healthy vaccinee bias.

Comorbidities associated with dysphagia after acute ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Pre-existing comorbidities increase the likelihood of post-stroke dysphagia. This study investigates comorbidity prevalence in patients with dysphagia after ischemic stroke. METHODS: The data of patients with acute ischemic stroke from two large representative cohorts (STROKE-CARD trial 2014-2019 and STROKE-CARD registry 2020-2022 - both study center Innsbruck, Austria) were analyzed for the presence of dysphagia at hospital admission (clinical swallowing examination). Comorbidities were assessed using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). RESULTS: Of 2054 patients with ischemic stroke, 17.2% showed dysphagia at hospital admission. Patients with dysphagia were older (77.8 ± 11.9 vs. 73.6 ± 14.3 years, p < 0.001), had more severe strokes (NIHSS 7(4-12) vs. 2(1-4), p < 0.001) and had higher CCI scores (4.7 ± 2.1 vs. 3.8 ± 2.0, p < 0.001) than those without swallowing impairment. Dysphagia correlated with hypertension (p = 0.034), atrial fibrillation (p < 0.001), diabetes (p = 0.002), non-smoking status (p = 0.014), myocardial infarction (p = 0.002), heart failure (p = 0.002), peripheral arterial disease (p < 0.001), severe chronic liver disease (p = 0.002) and kidney disease (p = 0.010). After adjusting for relevant factors, the associations with dysphagia remained significant for diabetes (p = 0.005), peripheral arterial disease (p = 0.007), kidney disease (p = 0.014), liver disease (p = 0.003) and overall CCI (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with multiple comorbidities have a higher risk of developing post-stroke dysphagia. Therefore, early and thorough screening for swallowing impairment after acute ischemic stroke is crucial especially in those with multiple concomitant diseases. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Stroke Card Registry (NCT04582825), Stroke Card Trial (NCT02156778).

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and cardiovascular disease risk: A Mendelian Randomisation study.

Objective: Observational studies show that hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDPs) are related to unfavourable maternal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profiles later in life. We investigated whether genetic liability to pre-eclampsia/eclampsia and gestational hypertension is associated with CVD risk factors and occurrence of CVD events. Methods: We obtained genetic associations with HDPs from a genome-wide association study and used individual-participant-data from the UK Biobank to obtain genetic associations with CVD risk factors and CVD events (defined as myocardial infarction or stroke). In our primary analysis, we applied Mendelian Randomisation using inverse-variance weighted regression analysis in ever pregnant women. In sensitivity analyses, we studied men and nulligravidae to investigate genetic liability to HDPs and CVD risk without the ability to experience the underlying phenotype. Results: Our primary analysis included 221,155 ever pregnant women (mean age 56.8 [SD 7.9]) with available genetic data. Odds ratios for CVD were 1.20 (1.02-1.41) and 1.24 (1.12-1.38) per unit increase in the log odds of genetic liability to pre-eclampsia/eclampsia and gestational hypertension, respectively. Furthermore, genetic liability to HDPs was associated with higher levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure and younger age at hypertension diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses revealed no statistically significant differences when comparing the findings to those of nulligravidae and men. Conclusions: Genetic liability to HDPs is associated with higher CVD risk, lower blood pressure levels, and earlier hypertension diagnosis. Our study suggests similar findings in ever pregnant women, nulligravidae and men, implying biological mechanisms relating to HDPs are causally related to CVD risk.

High immunoglobulin-M levels to oxidation-specific epitopes are associated with lower risk of acute myocardial infarction.

Immunoglobulin M (IgM) autoantibodies to oxidation-specific epitopes (OSEs) can be present at birth and protect against atherosclerosis in experimental models. This study sought to determine whether high titers of IgM titers to OSE (IgM OSE) are associated with a lower risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in humans. IgM to malondialdehyde (MDA)-LDL, phosphocholine-modified BSA, IgM apolipoprotein B100-immune complexes, and a peptide mimotope of MDA were measured within 24 h of first AMI in 4,559 patients and 4,617 age- and sex-matched controls in the Pakistan Risk of Myocardial Infarction Study. Multivariate-adjusted logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval for AMI. All four IgM OSEs were lower in AMI versus controls (P < 0.001 for all). Males, smokers and individuals with hypertension and diabetes had lower levels of all four IgM OSE than unaffected individuals (P < 0.001 for all). Compared to the lowest quintile, the highest quintiles of IgM MDA-LDL, phosphocholine-modified BSA, IgM apolipoprotein B100-immune complexes, and MDA mimotope P1 had a lower OR of AMI: OR (95% confidence interval) of 0.67 (0.58-0.77), 0.64 (0.56-0.73), 0.70 (0.61-0.80) and 0.72 (0.62-0.82) (P < 0.001 for all), respectively. Upon the addition of IgM OSE to conventional risk factors, the C-statistic improved by 0.0062 (0.0028-0.0095) and net reclassification by 15.5% (11.4-19.6). These findings demonstrate that IgM OSE provides clinically meaningful information and supports the hypothesis that higher levels of IgM OSE may be protective against AMI.

Comparison of different risk scores for Parkinson disease in a population-based 10-year study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Different algorithms aiming to identify individuals at risk of Parkinson disease (PD) have been proposed. Comparative studies of these scores and their recent updates in the general elder population are needed. METHODS: We have previously applied the "basic" PREDICT-PD algorithm, designed for remote screening, and the original and updated Movement Disorder Society (MDS) criteria for prodromal PD to the longitudinal population-based Bruneck study cohort. We have now additionally employed the "enhanced" PREDICT-PD algorithm (which includes motor assessment, olfaction, probable rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder status, pesticide exposure, and diabetes as additional factors). Risk scores were calculated based on comprehensive baseline assessments (2005) in 574 subjects aged 55-94 years (290 females), and cases of incident PD were identified at 5-year (n = 11) and 10-year follow-up (n = 9). We analysed the association of the different log-transformed risk scores with incident PD at follow-up (calculated per 1-SD unit change). RESULTS: The enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm was associated with incident PD over 10-years of follow-up, yielding higher odds for incident PD (odds ratio [OR] = 4.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.68-7.93, p < 0.001) compared with the basic PREDICT-PD score (OR = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.49-3.79, p < 0.001). The updated MDS prodromal criteria yielded a numerically higher OR of 7.13 (95% CI = 3.49-14.54, p < 0.001) in comparison with the original criteria as well as the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm, with overlapping 95% CIs. CONCLUSIONS: The enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm was significantly associated with incident PD. The consistent performance of both the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm and the updated MDS prodromal criteria compared to their original versions supports their use in PD risk screening.

Neutrophil-Derived Protein S100A8/A9 Alters the Platelet Proteome in Acute Myocardial Infarction and Is Associated With Changes in Platelet Reactivity.

OBJECTIVE: Platelets are central to acute myocardial infarction (MI). How the platelet proteome is altered during MI is unknown. We sought to describe changes in the platelet proteome during MI and identify corresponding functional consequences. Approach and Results: Platelets from patients experiencing ST-segment-elevation MI (STEMI) before and 3 days after treatment (n=30) and matched patients with severe stable coronary artery disease before and 3 days after coronary artery bypass grafting (n=25) underwent quantitative proteomic analysis. Elevations in the proteins S100A8 and S100A9 were detected at the time of STEMI compared with stable coronary artery disease (S100A8: FC, 2.00; false discovery rate, 0.05; S100A9: FC, 2.28; false discovery rate, 0.005). During STEMI, only S100A8 mRNA and protein levels were correlated in platelets (R=0.46, P=0.012). To determine whether de novo protein synthesis occurs, activated platelets were incubated with 13C-labeled amino acids for 24 hours and analyzed by mass spectrometry. No incorporation was confidently detected. Platelet S100A8 and S100A9 was strongly correlated with neutrophil abundance at the time of STEMI. When isolated platelets and neutrophils were coincubated under quiescent and activated conditions, release of S100A8 from neutrophils resulted in uptake of S100A8 by platelets. Neutrophils released S100A8/A9 as free heterodimer, rather than in vesicles or extracellular traps. In the community-based Bruneck study (n=338), plasma S100A8/A9 was inversely associated with platelet reactivity-an effect abrogated by aspirin. CONCLUSIONS: Leukocyte-to-platelet protein transfer may occur in a thromboinflammatory environment such as STEMI. Plasma S100A8/A9 was negatively associated with platelet reactivity. These findings highlight neutrophils as potential modifiers for thrombotic therapies in coronary artery disease.

Haemodynamic Gain Index Is Associated with Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death and Improves Risk Prediction: A Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Haemodynamic gain index (HGI) is a novel haemodynamic parameter which can be obtained from cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX), but its association with sudden cardiac death (SCD) is not known. We aimed to assess the association of HGI with SCD risk in a long-term prospective cohort study. METHODS: HGI was calculated using heart rate and systolic blood pressure (SBP) responses measured in 1897 men aged 42­61 years during CPX from rest to peak exercise. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) was measured using respiratory gas exchange analysis. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were estimated for SCD. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 28.7 years, 205 SCDs occurred. The risk of SCD decreased gradually with increasing HGI (p value for non-linearity = 0.63). A unit (bpm/mm Hg) higher HGI was associated with a decreased risk of SCD (HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.71-0.99), which was attenuated following adjustment for CRF. CRF was inversely associated with SCD, which remained after further adjustment for HGI (HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.77-0.94) per each unit higher CRF. Addition of HGI to a SCD risk prediction model containing established risk factors improved risk discrimination (C-index change = 0.0096; p = 0.017) and reclassification (net reclassification improvement [NRI] = 39.40%, p = 0.001). The corresponding values for CRF were (C-index change = 0.0178; p = 0.007) and (NRI = 43.79%, p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Higher HGI during CPX is associated with a lower SCD risk, consistent with a dose-response relationship but dependent on CRF levels. Though HGI significantly improves the prediction and classification of SCD beyond common cardiovascular risk factors, CRF remains a stronger risk indicator and predictor of SCD compared to HGI.

Effects of regular sauna bathing in conjunction with exercise on cardiovascular function: a multi-arm, randomized controlled trial.

Regular exercise and sauna bathing have each been shown to improve cardiovascular function in clinical populations. However, experimental data on the cardiovascular adaptations to regular exercise in conjunction with sauna bathing in the general population are lacking. Therefore, we compared the effects of exercise and sauna bathing to regular exercise using a multi-arm randomized controlled trial. Participants (n = 47) aged 49 ± 9 with low physical activity levels and at least one traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to guideline-based regular exercise and 15-min postexercise sauna (EXS), guideline-based regular exercise (EXE), or control (CON) for 8 wk. The primary outcomes were blood pressure (BP) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF). Secondary outcomes included fat mass, total cholesterol levels, and arterial stiffness. EXE had a greater change in CRF (+6.2 mL/kg/min; 95% CI, +4.2 to +8.3 mL/kg/min) and fat mass but no differences in BP when compared with CON. EXS displayed greater change in CRF (+2.7 mL/kg/min; 95% CI, +0.2 to +5.3 mL/kg/min), lower systolic BP (-8.0 mmHg; 95% CI, -14.6 to -1.4 mmHg), and lower total cholesterol levels compared with EXE. Regular exercise improved CRF and body composition in sedentary adults with CVD risk factors. However, when combined with exercise, sauna bathing demonstrated a substantially supplementary effect on CRF, systolic BP, and total cholesterol levels. Sauna bathing is a valuable lifestyle tool that complements exercise for improving CRF and decreasing systolic BP. Future research should focus on the duration and frequency of exposure to ascertain the dose-response relationship.

Associations of Gait Disorders and Recurrent Falls in Older People: A Prospective Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: Recurrent falls represent a major source of serious adverse health outcomes in the general older population. Gait impairment has been linked to recurrent falls, but there are only limited long-term data on this association. OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study was to investigate the association of gait disorders (GDs) and gait tests with future falls in an existing longitudinal population-based cohort. METHOD: The study was performed in participants of the Bruneck Study cohort 2010 aged 60-97 years, with prospective 5-year follow-up. At baseline, participants underwent a clinical gait assessment (to determine neurological and non-neurological GDs according to an established classification) and were also evaluated by quantitative and semiquantitative gait tests (Hauser Index, Tinetti balance and gait test, and gait speed). Logistic regression analysis adjusted for age and sex was used to determine the relationship of baseline variables with incident recurrent falls at 5-year follow-up. RESULTS: Of 328 included participants, 22 (6.7%) reported recurrent falls at follow-up. Baseline presence of GDs was associated with recurrent falls at follow-up (odds ratio [OR] 4.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-11.1; p = 0.004), and this effect was largely driven by neurological GDs (OR 5.5; 95% CI 1.7-17.4; p = 0.004). All 3 simple gait tests were predictive for incident falls (Hauser Index, p = 0.002; Tinetti test, p = 0.006; and gait speed, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical assessment of GDs and gait tests both had independent significant predictive value for recurrent falls over a 5-year follow-up period. This highlights the potential of such assessments for early fall risk screening and timely implementation of fall-preventive measures.

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Progression as Surrogate Marker for Cardiovascular Risk: Meta-Analysis of 119 Clinical Trials Involving 100 667 Patients.

BACKGROUND: To quantify the association between effects of interventions on carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) progression and their effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. METHODS: We systematically collated data from randomized, controlled trials. cIMT was assessed as the mean value at the common-carotid-artery; if unavailable, the maximum value at the common-carotid-artery or other cIMT measures were used. The primary outcome was a combined CVD end point defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization procedures, or fatal CVD. We estimated intervention effects on cIMT progression and incident CVD for each trial, before relating the 2 using a Bayesian meta-regression approach. RESULTS: We analyzed data of 119 randomized, controlled trials involving 100 667 patients (mean age 62 years, 42% female). Over an average follow-up of 3.7 years, 12 038 patients developed the combined CVD end point. Across all interventions, each 10 µm/y reduction of cIMT progression resulted in a relative risk for CVD of 0.91 (95% Credible Interval, 0.87-0.94), with an additional relative risk for CVD of 0.92 (0.87-0.97) being achieved independent of cIMT progression. Taken together, we estimated that interventions reducing cIMT progression by 10, 20, 30, or 40 µm/y would yield relative risks of 0.84 (0.75-0.93), 0.76 (0.67-0.85), 0.69 (0.59-0.79), or 0.63 (0.52-0.74), respectively. Results were similar when grouping trials by type of intervention, time of conduct, time to ultrasound follow-up, availability of individual-participant data, primary versus secondary prevention trials, type of cIMT measurement, and proportion of female patients. CONCLUSIONS: The extent of intervention effects on cIMT progression predicted the degree of CVD risk reduction. This provides a missing link supporting the usefulness of cIMT progression as a surrogate marker for CVD risk in clinical trials.

Physical activity may not be associated with long-term risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: While it is well established that physical activity is associated with reduced risk of vascular and nonvascular outcomes as well as mortality, evidence on the association between physical activity and dementia is inconsistent. We aimed to assess the associations of physical activity with the risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). MATERIAL AND METHODS: We analysed data on 2394 apparently healthy men with good baseline cognitive function from the prospective population-based Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease study. We assessed habits of physical activity at baseline using a 12-month leisure time physical activity (LTPA) questionnaire. Using Cox regression, we calculated hazard ratios adjusted for body mass index, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of type-2 diabetes, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, alcohol consumption, history of coronary heart disease and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 24.9 years (interquartile range: 18.3-26.9), 208 men developed dementia and 128 developed AD. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for dementia comparing top vs bottom tertiles of physical activity were 0.97 (95% confidence intervals: 0.69-1.38) for total physical activity volume, 0.96 (0.69-1.34) for conditioning LTPA volume and 1.13 (0.80-1.61) for total LTPA volume. Corresponding hazard ratios for AD were 1.19 (0.76-1.85), 0.98 (0.64-1.49) and 1.22 (0.77-1.93). Associations were consistent in analyses restricted to participants with ≥10 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In middle-aged Caucasian men, various physical activity exposures were not associated with all-cause dementia or AD. Future studies should address biases due to reverse causation and regression dilution and should involve objective measures of physical activity.

Sensitivity and specificity of the antigen-based anterior nasal self-testing programme for detecting SARS-CoV-2 infection in schools, Austria, March 2021.

This study evaluates the performance of the antigen-based anterior nasal screening programme implemented in all Austrian schools to detect SARS-CoV-2 infections. We combined nationwide antigen-based screening data obtained in March 2021 from 5,370 schools (Grade 1-8) with an RT-qPCR-based prospective cohort study comprising a representative sample of 244 schools. Considering a range of assumptions, only a subset of infected individuals are detected with the programme (low to moderate sensitivity) and non-infected individuals mainly tested negative (very high specificity).

The interconnection between lipoprotein(a), lipoprotein(a) cholesterol and true LDL-cholesterol in the diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolemia.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Elevated levels of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] are present in 30-50% of patients with familial hypercholesterolemia. The contribution of Lp(a) towards risk stratification of patients with familial hypercholesterolemia has been recently recognized, with studies showing a significantly worse prognosis if Lp(a) is elevated. However, the role of elevated Lp(a) in diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolemia is less well defined or accepted. RECENT FINDINGS: An important confounder in the diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolemia is the significant contribution of the cholesterol content on Lp(a) (Lp(a)-C) in individuals with elevated Lp(a). Because Lp(a)-C is incorporated into all clinical LDL-C measurements, it can contribute significantly to the cholesterol threshold diagnostic criteria for familial hypercholesterolemia used in most clinical algorithms. SUMMARY: In this review, we discuss the interrelationship of Lp(a), Lp(a)-C and correct LDL-C in the diagnosis and prognosis of familial hypercholesterolemia. Future studies of accurately measuring correct LDL-C or in using apoB-100 and Lp(a) criteria may overcome the limitations of using estimated LDL-C in the diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolemia in individuals with concomitant elevation of Lp(a).

Birth Weight and Weight Changes from Infancy to Early Childhood as Predictors of Body Mass Index in Adolescence.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the time point during infancy and early childhood at which greater than expected weight gain is associated with overweight in adolescence. STUDY DESIGN: Current height, weight, and body mass index (BMI) were assessed in 1520 adolescents (mean age of boys, 15.52 ± 0.84 years; mean age of girls, 15.37 ± 0.77 years). Information on weight and height trajectories during infancy and early childhood (birth and 6 other time points) was extracted from mother-child booklets. Conditional relative weights were computed to estimate greater or lower than expected weight gain (ie, soft tissue gain at a specific age independent of linear growth), and their association with BMI in adolescence was investigated using linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The mean BMI in adolescence was 21.77 ± 3.69 in boys and 21.70 ± 3.50 in girls. The proportion of overweight was 14.8% in each group. Overweight adolescents had significantly higher weight z-scores at birth, 1.2 month, 3.3 months, 7.6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 4 years of age as compared with normal-weight adolescents. There were significant positive associations of weight z-scores and conditional relative weights with adolescent BMI at all ages except birth, which were strongest after the first year of life. In a majority of overweight adolescents, overweight had manifested within the first 4 years of life. CONCLUSIONS: Greater than expected weigh gain at any time in the first years of life is associated with an increased BMI in adolescence. The effect is strongest after the first year.

Carotid intima-media thickness predicts carotid plaque development: Meta-analysis of seven studies involving 9341 participants.

BACKGROUND: Carotid intima-media thickness and carotid plaque are well-established imaging markers used to capture different stages of the atherosclerotic disease process. We aimed to quantify to which extent carotid intima-media thickness predicts incidence of first-ever carotid plaque. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two independent reviewers conducted a comprehensive literature search of PubMed and Web of Science. To be eligible for inclusion, prospective studies were required to involve participants free of carotid plaque at baseline and report on the association of baseline carotid intima-media thickness with development of first-ever carotid plaque. Study-specific relative risks and 95% confidence intervals were collected and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: We identified seven relevant prospective studies involving a total of 9341 participants. Individuals were recruited between 1987 and 2012, average age at baseline was 54 years, and 63% were female. Studies reported on 1288 incident first-ever carotid plaques, occurring over an average maximum follow-up of 8.7 years. When individuals in the top fourth of baseline carotid intima-media thickness distribution were compared with those in the bottom fourth, the pooled relative risk for incidence of first-ever carotid plaque was 1.78 (95% confidence interval: 1.53-2.07, P < .001, I2  = 2.8%). The strength of association was not modified by mean baseline age, proportion of female participants, length of follow-up, year of baseline, and geographical location of the studies. CONCLUSIONS: In general population studies, elevated baseline carotid intima-media thickness is associated with incidence of carotid plaque in individuals free of carotid plaque at baseline.

Application of a Simple Parkinson's Disease Risk Score in a Longitudinal Population-Based Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Identifying individuals at risk of developing Parkinson's disease (PD) is critical to define target populations for future neuroprotective trials. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to apply the PREDICT-PD algorithm of risk indicators for PD in a prospective community-based study (the Bruneck study), representative of the general elderly population. METHODS: PREDICT-PD risk scores were calculated based on risk factor assessments obtained at baseline (2005, n = 574 participants). Cases of incident PD were identified at 5-year and 10-year follow-ups. Participants with PD or secondary parkinsonism at baseline were excluded (n = 35). We analyzed the association of log-transformed risk scores with the presence of well-established markers as surrogates for PD risk at baseline and with incident PD at follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 20 participants with incident PD were identified during follow-up (11 after 5 years and 9 after 10 years). Baseline PREDICT-PD risk scores were associated with incident PD with odds ratios of 2.09 (95% confidence interval, 1.35-3.25; P = 0.001) after 5 years and of 1.95 (1.36-2.79; P < 0.001) after 10 years of follow-up per doubling of risk scores. In addition, higher PREDICT-PD scores were significantly correlated with established PD risk markers (olfactory dysfunction, signs of rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder and motor deficits) and significantly associated with higher probability for prodromal PD according to the Movement Disorder Society research criteria at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: The PREDICT-PD score was associated with an increased risk for incident PD in our sample and may represent a useful first screening step in future algorithms aiming to identify cases of prodromal PD. © 2020 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration: individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies.

AIMS: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after 'recalibration', a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at 'high' 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29-39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44-51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms. CONCLUSION: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.

Association Between Depressive Symptoms and Incident Cardiovascular Diseases.

Importance: It is uncertain whether depressive symptoms are independently associated with subsequent risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Objective: To characterize the association between depressive symptoms and CVD incidence across the spectrum of lower mood. Design, Setting, and Participants: A pooled analysis of individual-participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 162 036 participants; 21 cohorts; baseline surveys, 1960-2008; latest follow-up, March 2020) and the UK Biobank (401 219 participants; baseline surveys, 2006-2010; latest follow-up, March 2020). Eligible participants had information about self-reported depressive symptoms and no CVD history at baseline. Exposures: Depressive symptoms were recorded using validated instruments. ERFC scores were harmonized across studies to a scale representative of the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale (range, 0-60; ≥16 indicates possible depressive disorder). The UK Biobank recorded the 2-item Patient Health Questionnaire 2 (PHQ-2; range, 0-6; ≥3 indicates possible depressive disorder). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were incident fatal or nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and CVD (composite of the 2). Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher log CES-D or PHQ-2 adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and diabetes were reported. Results: Among 162 036 participants from the ERFC (73%, women; mean age at baseline, 63 years [SD, 9 years]), 5078 CHD and 3932 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 9.5 years). Associations with CHD, stroke, and CVD were log linear. The HR per 1-SD higher depression score for CHD was 1.07 (95% CI, 1.03-1.11); stroke, 1.05 (95% CI, 1.01-1.10); and CVD, 1.06 (95% CI, 1.04-1.08). The corresponding incidence rates per 10 000 person-years of follow-up in the highest vs the lowest quintile of CES-D score (geometric mean CES-D score, 19 vs 1) were 36.3 vs 29.0 for CHD events, 28.0 vs 24.7 for stroke events, and 62.8 vs 53.5 for CVD events. Among 401 219 participants from the UK Biobank (55% were women, mean age at baseline, 56 years [SD, 8 years]), 4607 CHD and 3253 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 8.1 years). The HR per 1-SD higher depression score for CHD was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.08-1.14); stroke, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.06-1.14); and CVD, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08-1.13). The corresponding incidence rates per 10 000 person-years of follow-up among individuals with PHQ-2 scores of 4 or higher vs 0 were 20.9 vs 14.2 for CHD events, 15.3 vs 10.2 for stroke events, and 36.2 vs 24.5 for CVD events. The magnitude and statistical significance of the HRs were not materially changed after adjustment for additional risk factors. Conclusions and Relevance: In a pooled analysis of 563 255 participants in 22 cohorts, baseline depressive symptoms were associated with CVD incidence, including at symptom levels lower than the threshold indicative of a depressive disorder. However, the magnitude of associations was modest.

Baseline and on-statin treatment lipoprotein(a) levels for prediction of cardiovascular events: individual patient-data meta-analysis of statin outcome trials.

BACKGROUND: Elevated lipoprotein(a) is a genetic risk factor for cardiovascular disease in general population studies. However, its contribution to risk for cardiovascular events in patients with established cardiovascular disease or on statin therapy is uncertain. METHODS: Patient-level data from seven randomised, placebo-controlled, statin outcomes trials were collated and harmonised to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular events, defined as fatal or non-fatal coronary heart disease, stroke, or revascularisation procedures. HRs for cardiovascular events were estimated within each trial across predefined lipoprotein(a) groups (15 to <30 mg/dL, 30 to <50 mg/dL, and ≥50 mg/dL, vs <15 mg/dL), before pooling estimates using multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS: Analyses included data for 29 069 patients with repeat lipoprotein(a) measurements (mean age 62 years [SD 8]; 8064 [28%] women; 5751 events during 95 576 person-years at risk). Initiation of statin therapy reduced LDL cholesterol (mean change -39% [95% CI -43 to -35]) without a significant change in lipoprotein(a). Associations of baseline and on-statin treatment lipoprotein(a) with cardiovascular disease risk were approximately linear, with increased risk at lipoprotein(a) values of 30 mg/dL or greater for baseline lipoprotein(a) and 50 mg/dL or greater for on-statin lipoprotein(a). For baseline lipoprotein(a), HRs adjusted for age and sex (vs <15 mg/dL) were 1·04 (95% CI 0·91-1·18) for 15 mg/dL to less than 30 mg/dL, 1·11 (1·00-1·22) for 30 mg/dL to less than 50 mg/dL, and 1·31 (1·08-1·58) for 50 mg/dL or higher; respective HRs for on-statin lipoprotein(a) were 0·94 (0·81-1·10), 1·06 (0·94-1·21), and 1·43 (1·15-1·76). HRs were almost identical after further adjustment for previous cardiovascular disease, diabetes, smoking, systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol. The association of on-statin lipoprotein(a) with cardiovascular disease risk was stronger than for on-placebo lipoprotein(a) (interaction p=0·010) and was more pronounced at younger ages (interaction p=0·008) without effect-modification by any other patient-level or study-level characteristics. INTERPRETATION: In this individual-patient data meta-analysis of statin-treated patients, elevated baseline and on-statin lipoprotein(a) showed an independent approximately linear relation with cardiovascular disease risk. This study provides a rationale for testing the lipoprotein(a) lowering hypothesis in cardiovascular disease outcomes trials. FUNDING: Novartis Pharma AG.