Relationships between hope, optimism, and conservation engagement.

The loss and degradation of nature can lead to hopelessness and despair, which may undermine engagement in conservation actions. Emerging movements, such as that behind the organization Conservation Optimism, aim to avert potential despair of those involved in conservation. Some argue that fostering positive states, such as hope or optimism, can motivate engagement and action; however, others question whether fostering hope or optimism may inadvertently undermine perceived gravity of conservation challenges. We examined this issue by quantifying dispositional hope and optimism with a representative sample of Australians (n = 4285) and assessing their relationship with indicators of conservation engagement. We used the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia as a case study. We asked participants what they could do to help the GBR, then classified their responses into 2 outcome variables: identifying climate actions (i.e., actions that tackle the main threat to the reef) and identifying plastic actions (i.e., actions that are popular among community members). We also quantified likelihood of performing these actions and appraisals of both threats and actions. One dimension of hope, hope pathways (defined by Snyder's hope theory as knowing different ways to act), was associated with greater capacity to identify climate-related behaviors (odds ratio [OR] = 1.44) and plastic reduction behaviors (OR = 1.22) and greater likelihood of adopting climate-related actions (ß = 0.20). Optimism was associated with recognition of plastic reduction behaviors only (OR = 1.22). Neither hope nor optimism undermined appraisal of conservation threats. The effects of optimism were mediated by reduced action futility, and effects of hope pathways were mediated by stronger perceptions of threats to the reef (threat appraisal) and confidence in performing useful actions (coping appraisal). Our findings suggest that dispositional hope can strengthen, rather than undermine, appraisal of conservation challenges and solutions and thereby increase conservation engagement.

La pérdida y la degradación de la naturaleza pueden derivar en desesperanza y desesperación, las cuales pueden disminuir la participación en las actividades de conservación. Los movimientos, como aquél detrás de la organización Conservation Optimism, buscan evitar la potencial desesperación de aquellos involucrados en la conservación. Hay quienes argumentan que promover estados positivos, como la esperanza y el optimismo, puede debilitar inadvertidamente la gravedad percibida de los retos para la conservación. Analizamos este tema mediante la cuantificación de la disposición a la esperanza y el optimismo en una muestra representativa de australianos (n = 4285) y la valoración de sus relaciones con los indicadores de participación en la conservación. Usamos la Gran Barrera de Arrecife como un estudio de caso. Preguntamos a los participantes qué podrían hacer para ayudar a este ecosistema y después clasificamos sus respuestas en dos variables de resultado: identificar acciones climáticas (acciones que combaten la amenaza principal del arrecife) e identificar acciones plásticas (acciones que son populares entre los miembros de la comunidad). También cuantificamos la probabilidad de realizar estas acciones y las valoraciones tanto de las amenazas como de las acciones. Una dimensión de la esperanza, los caminos de la esperanza (definidas por la Teoría de la Esperanza de Snyder como saber actuar de diferentes maneras), estuvo asociada con una mayor capacidad para identificar los comportamientos relacionados con el clima (razón de oportunidades [OR]=1.44) y aquellos de reducción del plástico (OR = 1.22) y también con una mayor probabilidad de actuar en relación con el clima (ß = 0.20). El optimismo solamente estuvo asociado con el reconocimiento de los comportamientos de reducción del plástico (OR = 1.22). Ni el optimismo ni la esperanza debilitaron la valoración de las amenazas a la conservación. Los efectos del optimismo estuvieron mediados por la reducción de la futilidad de las acciones, mientras que los efectos de los caminos de la esperanza lo estuvieron por percepciones más firmes de las amenazas para el arrecife (valoración de amenazas) y la confianza en realizar acciones útiles (valoración del afrontamiento). Nuestros resultados sugieren que la disposición a la esperanza puede fortalecer, en lugar de debilitar, la valoración de la conservación y, por lo tanto, incrementar su participación.

Evaluating the conservation impact of Antarctica's protected areas.

Antarctic specially protected areas (ASPAs) are a key regulatory mechanism for protecting Antarctic environmental values. Previous evaluations of the effectiveness of the ASPA system focused on its representativeness and design characteristics, presenting a compelling rationale for its systematic revision. Upgrading the system could increase the representation of values within ASPAs, but representation alone does not guarantee the avoided loss or improvement of those values. Identifying factors that influence the effectiveness of ASPAs would inform the design and management of an ASPA system with the greatest capacity to deliver its intended conservation outcomes. To facilitate evaluations of ASPA effectiveness, we devised a research and policy agenda that includes articulating a theory of change for what outcomes ASPAs generate and how; building evaluation principles into ASPA design and designation processes; employing complementary approaches to evaluate multiple dimensions of effectiveness; and extending evaluation findings to identify and exploit drivers of positive conservation impact. Implementing these approaches will enhance the efficacy of ASPAs as a management tool, potentially leading to improved outcomes for Antarctic natural values in an era of rapid global change. Evaluación del impacto de conservación de las áreas protegidas de la Antártida.

Las áreas antárticas con protección especial (AAPE) son un mecanismo regulador clave para la protección de los valores ambientales en la Antártida. Las evaluaciones previas de la efectividad del sistema AAPE se centraron en su representatividad y características de diseño, lo que representó una justificación convincente para su revisión sistemática. La actualización del sistema podría aumentar la representación de los valores dentro de las AAPE, pero la representación por sí sola no garantiza que se evite la pérdida o la mejora de dichos valores. La identificación de los factores que influyen en la eficiencia de las AAPE contribuiría al diseño y la gestión de un sistema de AAPE con mayor capacidad de obtención de los resultados diseñados de conservación. Para facilitar las evaluaciones de la eficiencia de las AAPE, diseñamos una agenda política y de investigación que incluye la articulación de una teoría del cambio sobre cuáles resultados generan las AAPE y cómo lo hacen; la incorporación de principios de evaluación en los procesos de diseño y designación de AAPE; el empleo de enfoques complementarios para evaluar múltiples dimensiones de la eficiencia; y la ampliación de los resultados de la evaluación para identificar y explotar los impulsores del impacto positivo en la conservación. La aplicación de estos enfoques mejorará la eficiencia de las AAPE como herramienta de gestión, lo que potencialmente llevará a mejores resultados para los valores naturales antárticos en una era de rápido cambio global.

Environmental Management in the Peri-urban Region: Psychological and Contextual Factors Influencing Private Land Conservation Actions.

Peri-urban areas, defined as the region between urban and rural settlements, are heterogeneous, dynamic regions experiencing rapid land use change in cities around the world. Ongoing development and land use change has resulted in the fragmentation, degradation and loss of natural assets, threatening biodiversity, and ecosystems within the peri-urban region. With much of this land privately owned, the actions of landholders have considerable opportunity to deliver environmental outcomes, yet an understanding of this diverse group of landholders is challenging. Through a survey of landholders (N = 184) in Australian peri-urban regions we sought to understand motivations and barriers to engagement in environmental management. Factors influencing willingness to engage in environmental management included perceived personal capacity to act, feeling that actions were helpful, and community participation. We discuss how engagement strategies could incorporate these findings by focussing on improving capacity and environmental knowledge with hands on, face-to-face extension activities, encouraging simple actions, and fostering greater community interaction.

Effects of amusing memes on concern for unappealing species.

There is limited knowledge of the mechanisms that can inspire people's concern and engagement in the protection of unpopular and unappealing species. We analyzed Polish people's interest in themed internet memes featuring the proboscis monkey (Nasalis larvatus) and the consequences of this interest for conservation marketing. We examined Google Trends data, used Google Search, and searched popular media materials to estimate interest in the proboscis monkey in Poland. Photos of the proboscis monkey when presented with humor in internet memes attracted as much interest as usually more popular species (e.g., koala, panda, and orangutan) used in marketing by nongovernmental organizations. Amusing internet memes spread by social media positively correlated with increasing interest in the unappealing species, such as proboscis monkey. Interest in amusing internet memes positively correlated with individuals' decisions to donate to 6 crowdfunding actions. Thus, conservation marketing that includes amusing memes and social media may provide a worthwhile complement to traditional campaigns and are likely to influence individuals who are unaffected by the usual means.

Efectos de los Memes Divertidos sobre el Interés por las Especies Poco Atractivas Resumen El conocimiento existente sobre los mecanismos que pueden incentivar el interés y la participación de las personas en la protección de especies poco populares y poco atractivas actualmente es limitado. Analizamos el interés del pueblo polaco por algunos memes temáticos de internet en los que aparecía el mono násico (Nasalis larvatus) y la relevancia que tiene este interés para la mercadotecnia de la conservación. Examinamos los datos en Tendencias de Google, usamos el buscador de Google y buscamos entre los materiales populares en los medios digitales para estimar el interés por el mono násico en Polonia. Las fotografías del mono násico, al ser presentadas con humor en los memes, atrajeron tal nivel de interés como lo hacen otras especies generalmente más populares (p. ej., koalas, panda, orangután) usadas por organizaciones no gubernamentales en su publicidad. Los memes divertidos de distribuidos en las redes sociales tuvieron una correlación positiva con el aumento en el interés por especies poco atractivas, como el mono násico. El interés por estos memes divertidos también tuvo una correlación positiva con las decisión individual de donar a seis acciones de financiación colectiva. Por lo tanto, la mercadotecnia de la conservación que incluye memes divertidos o graciosos y a las redes sociales puede proporcionar un complemento provechoso para las campañas tradicionales y es probable que influya sobre aquellos individuos a los que los medios tradicionales no suelen generar efecto alguno.

Landholder typologies illuminate pathways for social change in a deforestation hotspot.

Psychosocial factors determine individual and collective behaviours, and there is growing evidence of their influence on land management behaviours. Native vegetation management encompasses biophysical, economic, political, and cultural dimensions that are immensely complex, and a more thorough understanding of the personal and cultural dimensions of deforestation activity is required. We emphasise this interdisciplinary imperative using Queensland, Australia, as an exemplar case study, where the controversial Vegetation Management Act1999 has been met with significant scrutiny over its effects on private landholders and its ability to curb deforestation behaviours. We surveyed landholders across Queensland in order to identify different landholder typologies based upon (1) their recent tree clearing behaviours and (2) their psychosocial characteristics, mapped their distribution in the landscape, and determined the unique demographic and psychosocial factors associated with typology membership. We identified a heterogeneous mosaic of landholders in the clearing landscape, composed of four clearing typologies and five psychosocial typologies. Social norms, identity, trust, and security played crucial roles in distinguishing different types of landholders. The two most contrasting clearing typologies-active and inactive clearers-were primarily located in hot- and cold-spots of deforestation, respectively; in contrast, most psychosocial typologies could be found throughout the landscape, highlighting the potential benefit of complementing generalised state-wide psychosocial targets with localised behavioural targets. We discuss how conservation policy instruments can be regionally tailored, and relevant strategies for effective communication and engagement can be developed to create behaviour change by understanding the characteristics and distribution of these types of landholders. If modified top-down efforts (e.g. strategic messages, community-based communication) can be supplemented with more bottom-up approaches (e.g. collective learning, building network support), sustainable land management in deforestation hotspots around the world may be achievable.

Program Awareness, Social Capital, and Perceptions of Trees Influence Participation in Private Land Conservation Programs in Queensland, Australia.

Voluntary private land conservation (PLC) is becoming an increasingly important complement to state protected areas around the world. PLC programs can serve as valuable strategies to increase biodiversity on agricultural lands, but their effectiveness depends on high participation rates. Amidst growing concerns regarding scalability and effectiveness of conservation strategies like national parks, researchers and practitioners are looking for new strategies to increase adoption of PLC. This study investigates the demographic, social, and psychological factors associated with participation in three classes of voluntary PLC programs-grant payments, land management agreements, and covenants-and how this relates to landholders' attitudes toward tree clearing. We compare participation rates between these programs in Queensland and identify the most frequently cited reasons why land managers have or have not participated. Land managers who are more involved in agricultural organizations and whose tree clearing decisions are more influenced by the aesthetic value of trees are more likely to have participated in one or more of these programs. Participation was highly biased toward once-off grant payments, and participation in covenants was lowest of all programs. Although 58% of land managers have never participated, nearly half expressed interest in one or more programs. A lack of program knowledge and perceived losses of autonomy were the most frequently cited barriers to participation. We conclude with recommendations for increasing participation rates and raise important questions that need to be answered in order to promote a PLC culture that effectively curbs ongoing habitat degradation.

Conservation Research Is Not Happening Where It Is Most Needed.

Target 19, set by the Convention on Biological Diversity, seeks to improve the knowledge, science base, and technologies relating to biodiversity. We will fail to achieve this target unless prolific biases in the field of conservation science are addressed. We reveal that comparatively less research is undertaken in the world's most biodiverse countries, the science conducted in these countries is often not led by researchers based in-country, and these scientists are also underrepresented in important international fora. Mitigating these biases requires wide-ranging solutions: reforming open access publishing policies, enhancing science communication strategies, changing author attribution practices, improving representation in international processes, and strengthening infrastructure and human capacity for research in countries where it is most needed.

Equity trade-offs in conservation decision making.

Conservation decisions increasingly involve multiple environmental and social objectives, which result in complex decision contexts with high potential for trade-offs. Improving social equity is one such objective that is often considered an enabler of successful outcomes and a virtuous ideal in itself. Despite its idealized importance in conservation policy, social equity is often highly simplified or ill-defined and is applied uncritically. What constitutes equitable outcomes and processes is highly normative and subject to ethical deliberation. Different ethical frameworks may lead to different conceptions of equity through alternative perspectives of what is good or right. This can lead to different and potentially conflicting equity objectives in practice. We promote a more transparent, nuanced, and pluralistic conceptualization of equity in conservation decision making that particularly recognizes where multidimensional equity objectives may conflict. To help identify and mitigate ethical conflicts and avoid cases of good intentions producing bad outcomes, we encourage a more analytical incorporation of equity into conservation decision making particularly during mechanistic integration of equity objectives. We recommend that in conservation planning motivations and objectives for equity be made explicit within the problem context, methods used to incorporate equity objectives be applied with respect to stated objectives, and, should objectives dictate, evaluation of equity outcomes and adaptation of strategies be employed during policy implementation.

How do marine and coastal citizen science experiences foster environmental engagement?

Citizen science programs enable community involvement in scientific research. In addition to fostering greater science literacy, some citizen science programs aim to foster engagement in environmental issues. However, few data are available to indicate whether and how citizen science programs can achieve greater environmental engagement. We survey individuals choosing to attend one of seventeen reef citizen science events and examine the extent to which attendees reported three indicators of greater environmental engagement: (i) willingness to share information, (ii) increased support for marine conservation and citizen science, and (iii) intentions to adopt a new behavior. Most participants reported being willing to share information about reef conservation (91%) and described increased support for marine science and conservation (87%). Half of participants (51%) reported intentions to adopt a new conservation behavior. We found that key elements of the citizen science experience associated with these outcomes were learning about actions to protect reefs and coasts (procedural learning), experiencing surprise, and experiencing negative emotions about environmental problems. Excitement was also associated with positive outcomes, but only in participants who were less likely to see themselves as environmental, or were less frequent visitors to reefs and coasts. Importantly, the association between factual learning and environmental engagement outcomes was limited or negative. These findings suggest that the way citizen science experiences make people feel, may be more important for fostering future environmental engagement than factual-based learning. When designing citizen science programs for community members, these findings provide a reminder to not focus on provision of factual information alone, but to highlight environmental impacts while providing meaningful experiences and building environmental skills.

Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review.

Climate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer-reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation.

Using a social-ecological framework to inform the implementation of conservation plans.

One of the key determinants of success in biodiversity conservation is how well conservation planning decisions account for the social system in which actions are to be implemented. Understanding elements of how the social and ecological systems interact can help identify opportunities for implementation. Utilizing data from a large-scale conservation initiative in southwestern of Australia, we explored how a social-ecological system framework can be applied to identify how social and ecological factors interact to influence the opportunities for conservation. Using data from semistructured interviews, an online survey, and publicly available data, we developed a conceptual model of the social-ecological system associated with the conservation of the Fitz-Stirling region. We used this model to identify the relevant variables (remnants of vegetation, stakeholder presence, collaboration between stakeholders, and their scale of management) that affect the implementation of conservation actions in the region. We combined measures for these variables to ascertain how areas associated with different levels of ecological importance coincided with areas associated with different levels of stakeholder presence, stakeholder collaboration, and scales of management. We identified areas that could benefit from different implementation strategies, from those suitable for immediate conservation action to areas requiring implementation over the long term to increase on-the-ground capacity and identify mechanisms to incentivize implementation. The application of a social-ecological framework can help conservation planners and practitioners facilitate the integration of ecological and social data to inform the translation of priorities for action into implementation strategies that account for the complexities of conservation problems in a focused way.

Replacing underperforming protected areas achieves better conservation outcomes.

Protected areas vary enormously in their contribution to conserving biodiversity, and the inefficiency of protected area systems is widely acknowledged. However, conservation plans focus overwhelmingly on adding new sites to current protected area estates. Here we show that the conservation performance of a protected area system can be radically improved, without extra expenditure, by replacing a small number of protected areas with new ones that achieve more for conservation. Replacing the least cost-effective 1% of Australia's 6,990 strictly protected areas could increase the number of vegetation types that have 15% or more of their original extent protected from 18 to 54, of a maximum possible of 58. Moreover, it increases markedly the area that can be protected, with no increase in overall spending. This new paradigm for protected area system expansion could yield huge improvements to global conservation at a time when competition for land is increasingly intense.

Ecosystem services from a degraded peatland of Central Kalimantan: implications for policy, planning, and management.

Increasingly, landscapes are managed for multiple objectives to balance social, economic, and environmental goals. The Ex-Mega Rice Project (EMRP) peatland in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia provides a timely example with globally significant development, carbon, and biodiversity concerns. To inform future policy, planning, and management in the EMRP, we quantified and mapped ecosystem service values, assessed their spatial interactions, and evaluated the potential provision of ecosystem services under future land-use scenarios. We focus on key policy-relevant regulating (carbon stocks and the potential for emissions reduction), provisioning (timber, crops from smallholder agriculture, palm oil), and supporting (biodiversity) services. We found that implementation of existing land-use plans has the potential to improve total ecosystem service provision. We identify a number of significant inefficiencies, trade-offs, and unintended outcomes that may arise. For example, the potential development of existing palm oil concessions over one-third of the region may shift smallholder agriculture into low-productivity regions and substantially impact carbon and biodiversity outcomes. While improved management of conservation zones may enhance the protection of carbon stocks, not all biodiversity features will be represented, and there will be a reduction in timber harvesting and agricultural production. This study highlights how ecosystem service analyses can be structured to better inform policy, planning, and management in globally significant but data-poor regions.

Effects of threat management interactions on conservation priorities.

Decisions need to be made about which biodiversity management actions are undertaken to mitigate threats and about where these actions are implemented. However, management actions can interact; that is, the cost, benefit, and feasibility of one action can change when another action is undertaken. There is little guidance on how to explicitly and efficiently prioritize management for multiple threats, including deciding where to act. Integrated management could focus on one management action to abate a dominant threat or on a strategy comprising multiple actions to abate multiple threats. Furthermore management could be undertaken at sites that are in close proximity to reduce costs. We used cost-effectiveness analysis to prioritize investments in fire management, controlling invasive predators, and reducing grazing pressure in a bio-diverse region of southeastern Queensland, Australia. We compared outcomes of 5 management approaches based on different assumptions about interactions and quantified how investment needed, benefits expected, and the locations prioritized for implementation differed when interactions were taken into account. Managing for interactions altered decisions about where to invest and in which actions to invest and had the potential to deliver increased investment efficiency. Differences in high priority locations and actions were greatest between the approaches when we made different assumptions about how management actions deliver benefits through threat abatement: either all threats must be managed to conserve species or only one management action may be required. Threatened species management that does not consider interactions between actions may result in misplaced investments or misguided expectations of the effort required to mitigate threats to species.

Scale mismatches, conservation planning, and the value of social-network analyses.

Many of the challenges conservation professionals face can be framed as scale mismatches. The problem of scale mismatch occurs when the planning for and implementation of conservation actions is at a scale that does not reflect the scale of the conservation problem. The challenges in conservation planning related to scale mismatch include ecosystem or ecological process transcendence of governance boundaries; limited availability of fine-resolution data; lack of operational capacity for implementation; lack of understanding of social-ecological system components; threats to ecological diversity that operate at diverse spatial and temporal scales; mismatch between funding and the long-term nature of ecological processes; rate of action implementation that does not reflect the rate of change of the ecological system; lack of appropriate indicators for monitoring activities; and occurrence of ecological change at scales smaller or larger than the scale of implementation or monitoring. Not recognizing and accounting for these challenges when planning for conservation can result in actions that do not address the multiscale nature of conservation problems and that do not achieve conservation objectives. Social networks link organizations and individuals across space and time and determine the scale of conservation actions; thus, an understanding of the social networks associated with conservation planning will help determine the potential for implementing conservation actions at the required scales. Social-network analyses can be used to explore whether these networks constrain or enable key social processes and how multiple scales of action are linked. Results of network analyses can be used to mitigate scale mismatches in assessing, planning, implementing, and monitoring conservation projects.

The role of incentive mechanisms in promoting forest restoration.

Forest restoration has been proposed as a scalable nature-based solution to achieve global environmental and socio-economic outcomes and is central to many policy initiatives, such as the Bonn Challenge. Restored forests contain appreciable biodiversity, improve habitat connectivity and sequester carbon. Incentive mechanisms (e.g. payments for ecosystem services and allocation of management rights) have been a focus of forest restoration efforts for decades. Yet, there is still little understanding of their role in promoting restoration success. We conducted a systematic literature review to investigate how incentive mechanisms are used to promote forest restoration, outcomes, and the biophysical and socio-economic factors that influence implementation and program success. We found that socio-economic factors, such as governance, monitoring systems and the experience and beliefs of participants, dominate whether or not an incentive mechanism is successful. We found that approximately half of the studies report both positive ecological and socio-economic outcomes. However, reported adverse outcomes were more commonly socio-economic than ecological. Our results reveal that achieving forest restoration at a sufficient scale to meet international commitments will require stronger assessment and management of socio-economic factors that enable or constrain the success of incentive mechanisms. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Beyond ecology: ecosystem restoration as a process for social-ecological transformation.

Ecosystem restoration conventionally focuses on ecological targets. However, while ecological targets are crucial to mobilizing political, social, and financial capital, they do not encapsulate the need to: integrate social, economic, and ecological dimensions and systems approaches; reconcile global targets and local objectives; and measure the rate of progress toward multiple and synergistic goals. Restoration is better conceived as an inclusive social-ecological process that integrates diverse values, practices, knowledge, and restoration objectives across temporal and spatial scales and stakeholder groups. Taking a more process-based approach will ultimately enable greater social-ecological transformation, greater restoration effectiveness, and more long-lasting benefits to people and nature across time and place.

Prioritizing global conservation efforts.

One of the most pressing issues facing the global conservation community is how to distribute limited resources between regions identified as priorities for biodiversity conservation. Approaches such as biodiversity hotspots, endemic bird areas and ecoregions are used by international organizations to prioritize conservation efforts globally. Although identifying priority regions is an important first step in solving this problem, it does not indicate how limited resources should be allocated between regions. Here we formulate how to allocate optimally conservation resources between regions identified as priorities for conservation--the 'conservation resource allocation problem'. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to find the optimal schedule of resource allocation for small problems but is intractable for large problems owing to the "curse of dimensionality". We identify two easy-to-use and easy-to-interpret heuristics that closely approximate the optimal solution. We also show the importance of both correctly formulating the problem and using information on how investment returns change through time. Our conservation resource allocation approach can be applied at any spatial scale. We demonstrate the approach with an example of optimal resource allocation among five priority regions in Wallacea and Sundaland, the transition zone between Asia and Australasia.

Drivers of global mangrove loss and gain in social-ecological systems.

Mangrove forests store high amounts of carbon, protect communities from storms, and support fisheries. Mangroves exist in complex social-ecological systems, hence identifying socioeconomic conditions associated with decreasing losses and increasing gains remains challenging albeit important. The impact of national governance and conservation policies on mangrove conservation at the landscape-scale has not been assessed to date, nor have the interactions with local economic pressures and biophysical drivers. Here, we assess the relationship between socioeconomic and biophysical variables and mangrove change across coastal geomorphic units worldwide from 1996 to 2016. Globally, we find that drivers of loss can also be drivers of gain, and that drivers have changed over 20 years. The association with economic growth appears to have reversed, shifting from negatively impacting mangroves in the first decade to enabling mangrove expansion in the second decade. Importantly, we find that community forestry is promoting mangrove expansion, whereas conversion to agriculture and aquaculture, often occurring in protected areas, results in high loss. Sustainable development, community forestry, and co-management of protected areas are promising strategies to reverse mangrove losses, increasing the capacity of mangroves to support human-livelihoods and combat climate change.

Effectiveness of 20 years of conservation investments in protecting orangutans.

Conservation strategies are rarely systematically evaluated, which reduces transparency, hinders the cost-effective deployment of resources, and hides what works best in different contexts. Using data on the iconic and critically endangered orangutan (Pongo spp.), we developed a novel spatiotemporal framework for evaluating conservation investments. We show that around USD 1 billion was invested between 2000 and 2019 into orangutan conservation by governments, nongovernmental organizations, companies, and communities. Broken down by allocation to different conservation strategies, we find that habitat protection, patrolling, and public outreach had the greatest return on investment for maintaining orangutan populations. Given the variability in threats, land-use opportunity costs, and baseline remunerations in different regions, there were differential benefits per dollar invested across conservation activities and regions. We show that although challenging from a data and analysis perspective, it is possible to fully understand the relationships between conservation investments and outcomes and the external factors that influence these outcomes. Such analyses can provide improved guidance toward a more effective biodiversity conservation. Insights into the spatiotemporal interplays between the costs and benefits driving effectiveness can inform decisions about the most suitable orangutan conservation strategies for halting population declines. Although our study focuses on the three extant orangutan species of Sumatra and Borneo, our findings have broad application for evidence-based conservation science and practice worldwide.