Author Correction: Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise.

Change history: In Fig. 2b of this Letter, 'Relative wetland change (km2)' should have read 'Relative wetland change (%)' and equations (2) and (3) have been changed from 'RSLRcrit = (m × TRe) × Sed + i' and 'Sedcrit = (RSLR - i)/(m × TRe)', respectively. The definition of the variables in equation (2) has been updated. These errors have been corrected online.

Chronic kidney disease and transvenous cardiac implantable electronic device infection-is there an impact on healthcare utilization, costs, disease progression, and mortality?

AIMS: Cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) infections are a burden to hospitals and costly for healthcare systems. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases the risk of CIED infections, but its differential impact on healthcare utilization, costs, and outcomes is not known. METHODS AND RESULTS: This retrospective analysis used de-identified Medicare Fee-for-Service claims to identify patients implanted with a CIED from July 2016 to December 2020. Outcomes were defined as hospital days and costs within 12 months post-implant, post-infection CKD progression, and mortality. Generalized linear models were used to calculate results by CKD and infection status while controlling for other comorbidities, with differences between cohorts representing the incremental effect associated with CKD. A total of 584 543 patients had a CIED implant, of which 26% had CKD and 1.4% had a device infection. The average total days in hospital for infected patients was 23.5 days with CKD vs. 14.5 days (P < 0.001) without. The average cost of infection was $121 756 with CKD vs. $55 366 without (P < 0.001), leading to an incremental cost associated with CKD of $66 390. Infected patients with CKD were more likely to have septicaemia or severe sepsis than those without CKD (11.0 vs. 4.6%, P < 0.001). After infection, CKD patients were more likely to experience CKD progression (hazard ratio 1.26, P < 0.001) and mortality (hazard ratio 1.89, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Cardiac implantable electronic device infection in patients with CKD was associated with more healthcare utilization, higher cost, greater disease progression, and greater mortality compared to patients without CKD.

Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise.

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of biodiversity and highly valued ecosystem services1-3. These projections do not necessarily take into account all essential geomorphological4-7 and socio-economic system feedbacks8. Here we present an integrated global modelling approach that considers both the ability of coastal wetlands to build up vertically by sediment accretion, and the accommodation space, namely, the vertical and lateral space available for fine sediments to accumulate and be colonized by wetland vegetation. We use this approach to assess global-scale changes in coastal wetland area in response to global sea-level rise and anthropogenic coastal occupation during the twenty-first century. On the basis of our simulations, we find that, globally, rather than losses, wetland gains of up to 60 per cent of the current area are possible, if more than 37 per cent (our upper estimate for current accommodation space) of coastal wetlands have sufficient accommodation space, and sediment supply remains at present levels. In contrast to previous studies1-3, we project that until 2100, the loss of global coastal wetland area will range between 0 and 30 per cent, assuming no further accommodation space in addition to current levels. Our simulations suggest that the resilience of global wetlands is primarily driven by the availability of accommodation space, which is strongly influenced by the building of anthropogenic infrastructure in the coastal zone and such infrastructure is expected to change over the twenty-first century. Rather than being an inevitable consequence of global sea-level rise, our findings indicate that large-scale loss of coastal wetlands might be avoidable, if sufficient additional accommodation space can be created through careful nature-based adaptation solutions to coastal management.

Two-year outcomes of leadless vs. transvenous single-chamber ventricular pacemaker in high-risk subgroups.

AIMS: This study compares clinical outcomes between leadless pacemakers (leadless-VVI) and transvenous ventricular pacemakers (transvenous ventricular permanent-VVI) in subgroups of patients at higher risk of pacemaker complications. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study is based on the Micra Coverage with Evidence Development (CED) study. Patients from the Micra CED study were considered in a high-risk subgroup if they had a diagnosis of chronic kidney disease Stages 4-5 (CKD45), end-stage renal disease, malignancy, diabetes, tricuspid valve disease (TVD), or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) 12 months prior to pacemaker implant. A pre-specified set of complications and reinterventions were identified using diagnosis and procedure codes. Competing risks models were used to compare reinterventions and complications between leadless-VVI and transvenous-VVI patients within each subgroup; results were adjusted for multiple comparisons. A post hoc comparison of a composite outcome of reinterventions and device complications was conducted. Out of 27 991 patients, 9858 leadless-VVI and 12 157 transvenous-VVI patients have at least one high-risk comorbidity. Compared to transvenous-VVI patients, leadless-VVI patients in four subgroups [malignancy, HR 0.68 (0.48-0.95); diabetes, HR 0.69 (0.53-0.89); TVD, HR 0.60 (0.44-0.82); COPD, HR 0.73 (0.55-0.98)] had fewer complications, in three subgroups [diabetes, HR 0.58 (0.37-0.89); TVD, HR 0.46 (0.28-0.76); COPD, HR 0.51 (0.29-0.90)) had fewer reinterventions, and in four subgroups (malignancy, HR 0.52 (0.32-0.83); diabetes, HR 0.52 (0.35-0.77); TVD, HR 0.44 (0.28-0.70); COPD, HR 0.55 (0.34-0.89)] had lower rates of the combined outcome. CONCLUSION: In a real-world study, leadless pacemaker patients had lower 2-year complications and reinterventions rates compared with transvenous-VVI pacing in several high-risk subgroups. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT03039712.

Cost-effectiveness of an antibacterial envelope for infection prevention in patients undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy reoperations in Denmark.

AIMS: Use of an absorbable antibacterial envelope during implantation prevents cardiac implantable electronic device infections in patients with a moderate-to-high infection risk. Previous studies demonstrated that an envelope is cost-effective in high-risk patients within German, Italian, and English healthcare systems, but these analyses were based on limited data and may not be generalizable to other healthcare settings. METHODS AND RESULTS: A previously published decision-tree-based cost-effectiveness model was used to compare the costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) associated with adjunctive use of an antibacterial envelope for infection prevention compared to standard-of-care intravenous antibiotics. The model was adapted using data from a Danish observational two-centre cohort study that investigated infection-risk patients undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) reoperations with and without an antibacterial envelope (n = 1943). We assumed a cost-effectiveness threshold of €34 125/QALY gained, based on the upper threshold used by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (£30 000). An antibacterial envelope was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €12 022 per QALY in patients undergoing CRT reoperations, thus indicating that the envelope is cost-effective when compared with standard of care. A separate analysis stratified by device type showed ICERS of €6227 (CRT defibrillator) and €29 177 (CRT pacemaker) per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Cost-effectiveness ratios were favourable for patients undergoing CRT reoperations in the Danish healthcare system, and thus are in line with previous studies. Results from this study can contribute to making the technology available to Danish patients and align preventive efforts in the pacemaker and ICD area.

Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas.

The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5°C and 2.0°C stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Cost comparison of two implantable cardiac monitors in two different settings: Reveal XT in a catheterization laboratory vs. Reveal LINQ in a procedure room.

AIMS: Implantable cardiac monitors (ICMs) are used for long-term heart rhythm monitoring, e.g. to diagnose unexplained syncope or for detection of suspected atrial and ventricular arrhythmias. The newest ICM, Reveal LINQ™ (Medtronic Inc.), is miniaturized and inserted with a specific insertion tool kit. The procedure is therefore minimally invasive and can be moved from catheterization laboratory (cath lab) to a less resource intensive setting. This study aims to assess the change in procedure costs when performed outside the cath lab. METHODS AND RESULTS: A bottom-up costing methodology was used. Data were collected from interviews with physicians, cath lab managers, and financial controllers. Hospitals in the Netherlands, France, and the UK were included in this study. The cost comparison of a Reveal XT implantation in a cath lab setting vs. a Reveal LINQ insertion outside a cath lab resulted in an estimated reduction of €662 for the UK, €682 for the Netherlands, and €781 for France. These cost savings were primarily realized through fewer staff, less equipment, and overhead costs. The net effect on savings depends on the price differential between these two technologies. The patient care pathway can be improved due to the possibility to move the procedure out of the cath lab. CONCLUSION: Inserting the miniaturized version of the ICM is simpler and faster, and the procedure can take place outside the cath lab in a less resource intensive environment. Hospitals save resources when the higher price of the Reveal LINQ does not outweigh these savings.

Costs of unstructured investigation of unexplained syncope: insights from a micro-costing analysis of the observational PICTURE registry.

AIMS: The observational PICTURE (Place of Reveal In the Care pathway and Treatment of patients with Unexplained Recurrent Syncope) registry enrolled 570 patients with unexplained syncope, documented their care pathway and the various tests they underwent before the insertion of an implantable loop recorder (ILR). The aims were to describe the extent and cost of diagnostic tests performed before the implant. METHODS AND RESULTS: Actual costs of 17 predefined diagnostic tests were characterized based on a combination of data from PICTURE and a micro-costing study performed at a medium-sized UK university hospital in the UK. The median cost of diagnostic tests per patient was £1114 (95% CI £995-£1233). As many patients received more than the median number of tests, the mean expenditure per patient was higher with £1613 (95% CI £1494-£1732), and for 10% of the patients the cost exceeded £3539. Tests were frequently repeated, and early use of specific and expensive tests was common. In the 12% of patients with types of tests entirely within the recommendations for an initial evaluation before ILR implant, the mean cost was £710. CONCLUSION: Important opportunities to reduce test-related costs before an ILR implant were identified, e.g. by more appropriate use of tests recommended in the initial evaluation, by decreasing repetition of tests, and by avoiding early use of specialized and expensive tests. A structured multidisciplinary approach would be the best model to achieve an optimal outcome.

Delayed times to tissue fixation result in unpredictable global phosphoproteome changes.

Protein phosphorylation controls the activity of signal transduction pathways regulated by kinases and phosphatases. Little is known, however, about the impact of preanalytical factors, for example, delayed times to tissue fixation, on global phosphoprotein levels in tissues. The aim of this study was to characterize the potential effects of delayed tissue preservation (cold ischemia) on the levels of phosphoproteins using targeted and nontargeted proteomic approaches. Rat and murine liver samples were exposed to different cold ischemic conditions ranging from 10 to 360 min prior to cryopreservation. The phosphoproteome was analyzed using reverse phase protein array (RPPA) technology and phosphoprotein-enriched quantitative tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). RPPA analysis of rat liver tissues with long (up to 360 min) cold ischemia times did not reveal statistically significant alterations of specific phosphoproteins even though nonphosphorylated cytokeratin 18 (CK18) showed increased levels after 360 min of delay to freezing. Keeping the samples on ice prior to cryopreservation prevented this effect. LC-MS/MS-based quantification of 1684 phosphorylation sites in rat liver tissues showed broadening of their distribution compared to time point zero, but without reaching statistical significance for individual phosphosites. Similarly, RPPA analysis of mouse liver tissues with short (<60 min) cold ischemia times did not reveal directed or predictable changes of protein and phosphoprotein levels. Using LC-MS/MS and quantification of 791 phosphorylation sites, we found that the distribution of ratios compared to time point zero broadens with prolonged ischemia times, but these were rather undirected and diffuse changes, as we could not detect significant alterations of individual phosphosites. On the basis of our results from RPPA and LC-MS/MS analysis of rat and mouse liver tissues, we conclude that prolonged cold ischemia results in unspecific phosphoproteome changes that can be neither predicted nor assigned to individual proteins. On the other hand, we identified a number of phosphosites which were extraordinarily stable even after 360 min of cold ischemia and, therefore, may be used as general reference markers for future companion diagnostics for kinase inhibitors.

Setback zones can effectively reduce exposure to sea-level rise in Europe.

Coastal space is one of the most valuable assets of the EU coastal member states, as the coast is highly urbanized. Hard engineering has traditionally been employed to protect communities in coastal lowlands, but as this alternative becomes less sustainable and more costly, coastal managers are increasingly turning to landuse planning strategies, such as setback zones or managed retreat. To explore the efficiency of these planning tools in reducing future urban exposure to sea-level rise and associated hazards, we developed spatially explicit projections of urban extent that account for different socio-economic futures and various types of setback zones. We find that the establishment of coastal setback zones can reduce the exposure of new urban development by at least 50% in the majority of EU countries by 2100. Our results emphasize that future urban exposure to sea-level rise will be significantly influenced by the ways in which we plan, design, and develop urban space in the EU coastal lowlands.

Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise.

Climate change-induced sea-level rise will lead to an increase in internal migration, whose intensity and spatial patterns will depend on the amount of sea-level rise; future socioeconomic development; and adaptation strategies pursued to reduce exposure and vulnerability to sea-level rise. To explore spatial feedbacks between these drivers, we combine sea-level rise projections, socioeconomic projections, and assumptions on adaptation policies in a spatially-explicit model ('CONCLUDE'). Using the Mediterranean region as a case study, we find up to 20 million sea-level rise-related internal migrants by 2100 if no adaptation policies are implemented, with approximately three times higher migration in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries compared to northern Mediterranean countries. We show that adaptation policies can reduce the number of internal migrants by a factor of 1.4 to 9, depending on the type of strategies pursued; the implementation of hard protection measures may even lead to migration towards protected coastlines. Overall, spatial migration patterns are robust across all scenarios, with out-migration from a narrow coastal strip and in-migration widely spread across urban settings. However, the type of migration (e.g. proactive/reactive, managed/autonomous) depends on future socioeconomic developments that drive adaptive capacity, calling for decision-making that goes well beyond coastal issues.

Profiling signalling pathways in formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded breast cancer tissues reveals cross-talk between EGFR, HER2, HER3 and uPAR.

In the last few years, new approaches and developments in patient-tailored cancer therapies have raised the need to select, more precisely, those patients who will respond to personalized treatments. Therefore, the most efficient way for optimal therapy and patient selection is to provide a tumour-specific protein network portrait prior to treatment. The aim of our study was to monitor protein networks in formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) breast cancer tissues, with special emphasis on epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-mediated signalling pathways, to identify and validate new disease markers. For this purpose we used a recently developed technology to extract full-length proteins from FFPE tissues and analysed 23 molecules involved in HER2-related signalling by reverse phase protein microarray (RPPA) in a series of 106 FFPE breast cancer tissue samples. We found a significant correlation of HER2 with human epidermal growth factor receptor 3 (HER3/erbB3), epidermal growth factor receptor 1 (EGFR/HER1/erbB1) and urokinase plasminogen receptor (uPAR) in routinely used FFPE breast cancer tissues. Thus, targeting HER2, EGFR, HER3 and uPAR together may offer a more efficient treatment option for patients with breast cancer.

Antibody validation by combining immunohistochemistry and protein extraction from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues.

AIMS: Personalized cancer treatment strategies depend on comprehensive and detailed characterization of individual human malignancies. Clinical pathology, particularly immunohistochemical evaluation of biomarkers in tissues, is considered to be the approved standard for diagnostic and therapeutic decisions, having a direct influence on patient management and therapy. Although antibody-based approaches are established and integrated successfully into both clinical and research applications, for personalized treatment regimens new demands have been placed on the quality, reproducibility and accuracy of antibody-based assays. To ensure the accuracy of specific antigen detection in immunohistochemistry, we introduce a novel approach for antibody validation. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a tandem approach we used the same archival tissue of interest for antibody validation by combining extraction of immunoreactive proteins from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue with Western blot analysis and immunohistochemistry. This procedure allows for specification of the antigen detected and for localization of the protein in the tissue. Of the 32 antibodies tested used in research and routine diagnostics, 19 showed reliable specificity in both assays. CONCLUSION: This study emphasizes the advantage of combining suitable methods to ensure reproducibility and specific antigen detection. Based on our results, we propose a novel step-by-step strategy to validate antibody specificity and reduce variability of immunohistochemical results.

Signalling networks associated with urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA) and its inhibitor PAI-1 in breast cancer tissues: new insights from protein microarray analysis.

The urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA) and the main uPA inhibitor PAI-1 play important roles in cell migration and invasion in both physiological and pathological contexts. Both factors are clinically applicable predictive markers in node-negative breast cancer patients that are used to stratify patients for adjuvant chemotherapy. In addition to their classical functions in plasmin regulation, both factors are key components in cancer-related cell signalling. Such signalling cascades are well described in cell culture systems, but a better understanding of uPA- and PAI-1-associated signalling networks in clinical tissues is needed. We examined the expression of uPA, PAI-1, and 21 signalling molecules in 201 primary breast cancer tissues using protein microarrays. Expression of uPA was significantly correlated with the expression of ERK and Stat3, while expression of PAI-1 was correlated with the uPA receptor and Akt activation, presumably via integrin and HER-receptor signalling. Analysis of uPA expression did not reveal any significant correlation with staging, grading or age of the patients. The PAI-1 expression was correlated with nodal stage. Network monitoring for uPA and PAI-1 in breast cancer reveals interactions with main signalling cascades and extends the findings from cell culture experiments. Our results reveal possible mechanisms underlying cancer development.

Cost and cost effectiveness of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets - a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends that national malaria programmes universally distribute long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLINs). LLINs provide effective insecticide protection for at least three years while conventional nets must be retreated every 6-12 months. LLINs may also promise longer physical durability (lifespan), but at a higher unit price. No prospective data currently available is sufficient to calculate the comparative cost effectiveness of different net types. We thus constructed a model to explore the cost effectiveness of LLINs, asking how a longer lifespan affects the relative cost effectiveness of nets, and if, when and why LLINs might be preferred to conventional insecticide-treated nets. An innovation of our model is that we also considered the replenishment need i.e. loss of nets over time. METHODS: We modelled the choice of net over a 10-year period to facilitate the comparison of nets with different lifespan (and/or price) and replenishment need over time. Our base case represents a large-scale programme which achieves high coverage and usage throughout the population by distributing either LLINs or conventional nets through existing health services, and retreats a large proportion of conventional nets regularly at low cost. We identified the determinants of bed net programme cost effectiveness and parameter values for usage rate, delivery and retreatment cost from the literature. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to explicitly compare the differential effect of changing parameters such as price, lifespan, usage and replenishment need. RESULTS: If conventional and long-lasting bed nets have the same physical lifespan (3 years), LLINs are more cost effective unless they are priced at more than USD 1.5 above the price of conventional nets. Because a longer lifespan brings delivery cost savings, each one year increase in lifespan can be accompanied by a USD 1 or more increase in price without the cheaper net (of the same type) becoming more cost effective. Distributing replenishment nets each year in addition to the replacement of all nets every 3-4 years increases the number of under-5 deaths averted by 5-14% at a cost of USD 17-25 per additional person protected per annum or USD 1080-1610 per additional under-5 death averted. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the World Health Organization recommendation to distribute only LLINs, while giving guidance on the price thresholds above which this recommendation will no longer hold. Programme planners should be willing to pay a premium for nets which have a longer physical lifespan, and if planners are willing to pay USD 1600 per under-5 death averted, investing in replenishment is cost effective.

Do implantable loop recorders impact the survival of patients with recurrent unexplained syncope?

Aim: This study compares the outcomes of patients who receive an implantable loop recorder (ILR) for unexplained syncope to a control group without the diagnostic device in German claims data. Methods and materials: Patients with ILR were matched to a control group based on prior syncope events, age, gender and Charlson Comorbidity index (CCI). Survival, syncope hospitalizations, treatment and costs were compared. Results/conclusion: Four hundred and twelve ILR patients were matched with controls, mean age was 68, mean CCI was 2.7, 42% females. ILR patients lived on average 1.2 years longer than patients in the control group. Twenty-five percent of ILR patients received a therapeutic device compared with 5% in the control group. ILRs might help to diagnose and treat patients with positive impact on survival.

Burden of recurrent syncope and injuries and the usefulness of implantable cardiac monitors: insights from a nationwide longitudinal cohort analysis.

Aim: The study assesses the burden and costs of recurring unexplained syncope and injuries and the effectiveness of implantable loop recorders. Methods: The English national hospital database (Hospital Episode Statistics) was retrospectively analyzed. Results: 12,002 patients were identified with repeated syncope hospitalizations. 25% of patients were hospitalized at least once again for syncope, 9% of the patients were hospitalized at least once for an injury, causing substantial costs. In the second analysis: 10,902 patients implanted with an implantable cardiac monitor were tracked. By year 3, hospitalizations due to syncope had dropped by 60% versus pre-implantable cardiac monitor (ICM) levels. Conclusion: This study shows a high rate of recurrent syncope admissions and a parallel burden of hospitalizations for injuries. Use of an ICM appears to reduce syncope hospitalizations.

Future urban development exacerbates coastal exposure in the Mediterranean.

Changes in the spatial patterns and rate of urban development will be one of the main determinants of future coastal flood risk. Existing spatial projections of urban extent are, however, often available at coarse spatial resolutions, local geographical scales or for short time horizons, which limits their suitability for broad-scale coastal flood impact assessments. Here, we present a new set of spatially explicit projections of urban extent for ten countries in the Mediterranean, consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). To model plausible future urban development, we develop an Urban Change Model, which uses input variables such as elevation, population density or road network and an artificial neural network to project urban development on a regional scale. The developed future projections for the five SSPs indicate that accounting for the spatial patterns of urban development can lead to significant differences in the assessment of future coastal urban exposure. The increase in exposure in the Extended Low Elevation Coastal Zone (E-LECZ = area below 20 m of elevation) until 2100 can vary, by up to 104%, depending on the urban development scenario chosen. This finding highlights that accounting for urban development in long-term adaptation planning, e.g. in the form of land-use planning, can be an effective measure for reducing future coastal flood risk on a regional scale.

Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts.

We introduce a novel approach to statistically assess the non-linear interaction of tide and non-tidal residual in order to quantify its contribution to extreme sea levels and hence its role in modulating coastal protection levels, globally. We demonstrate that extreme sea levels are up to 30% (or 70 cm) higher if non-linear interactions are not accounted for (e.g., by independently adding astronomical and non-astronomical components, as is often done in impact case studies). These overestimates are similar to recent sea-level rise projections to 2100 at some locations. Furthermore, we further find evidence for changes in this non-linear interaction over time, which has the potential for counteracting the increasing flood risk associated with sea-level rise and tidal and/or meteorological changes alone. Finally, we show how accounting for non-linearity in coastal impact assessment modulates coastal exposure, reducing recent estimates of global coastal flood costs by ~16%, and population affected by ~8%.

Coastal flood risks in China through the 21st century - An application of DIVA.

China experiences frequent coastal flooding, with nearly US$ 77 billion of direct economic losses and over 7,000 fatalities reported from 1989 to 2014. Flood damages are likely to grow due to climate change induced sea-level rise and increasing exposure if no further adaptation measures are taken. This paper quantifies potential damage and adaptation costs of coastal flooding in China over the 21st Century, including the effects of sea-level rise. It develops and utilises a new, detailed coastal database of China developed within the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) model framework. The refined database provides a more realistic spatial representation of coasts, with more than 2700 coastal segments, covering 28,966 km of coastline. Over 50% of China's coast is artificial, representing defended coast and/or claimed land. Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs for China are assessed for different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) combinations representing climate change and socio-economic change and two adaptation strategies: no upgrade of currently existing defences and maintaining current protection levels. By 2100, 0.7-20.0 million people may be flooded/yr and US$ 67-3,308 billion damages/yr are projected without upgrade to defences. In contrast, maintaining the current protection level would reduce those numbers to 0.2-0.4 million people flooded/yr and US$ 22-60 billion/yr flood costs by 2100, with protection investment costs of US$ 8-17 billion/yr. In 2100, maintaining current protection levels, dikes costs are two orders of magnitude smaller than flood costs across all scenarios, even without accounting for indirect damages. This research improves on earlier national assessments of China by generating a wider range of projections, based on improved datasets. The information delivered in this study will help governments, policy-makers, insurance companies and local communities in China understand risks and design appropriate strategies to adapt to increasing coastal flood risk in an uncertain world.