A simple rule to determine which insolation cycles lead to interglacials.

The pacing of glacial-interglacial cycles during the Quaternary period (the past 2.6 million years) is attributed to astronomically driven changes in high-latitude insolation. However, it has not been clear how astronomical forcing translates into the observed sequence of interglacials. Here we show that before one million years ago interglacials occurred when the energy related to summer insolation exceeded a simple threshold, about every 41,000 years. Over the past one million years, fewer of these insolation peaks resulted in deglaciation (that is, more insolation peaks were 'skipped'), implying that the energy threshold for deglaciation had risen, which led to longer glacials. However, as a glacial lengthens, the energy needed for deglaciation decreases. A statistical model that combines these observations correctly predicts every complete deglaciation of the past million years and shows that the sequence of interglacials that has occurred is one of a small set of possibilities. The model accounts for the dominance of obliquity-paced glacial-interglacial cycles early in the Quaternary and for the change in their frequency about one million years ago. We propose that the appearance of larger ice sheets over the past million years was a consequence of an increase in the deglaciation threshold and in the number of skipped insolation peaks.

Evidence for warmer interglacials in East Antarctic ice cores.

Stable isotope ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in the Antarctic ice core record have revolutionized our understanding of Pleistocene climate variations and have allowed reconstructions of Antarctic temperature over the past 800,000 years (800 kyr; refs 1, 2). The relationship between the D/H ratio of mean annual precipitation and mean annual surface air temperature is said to be uniform +/-10% over East Antarctica and constant with time +/-20% (refs 3-5). In the absence of strong independent temperature proxy evidence allowing us to calibrate individual ice cores, prior general circulation model (GCM) studies have supported the assumption of constant uniform conversion for climates cooler than that of the present day. Here we analyse the three available 340 kyr East Antarctic ice core records alongside input from GCM modelling. We show that for warmer interglacial periods the relationship between temperature and the isotopic signature varies among ice core sites, and that therefore the conversions must be nonlinear for at least some sites. Model results indicate that the isotopic composition of East Antarctic ice is less sensitive to temperature changes during warmer climates. We conclude that previous temperature estimates from interglacial climates are likely to be too low. The available evidence is consistent with a peak Antarctic interglacial temperature that was at least 6 K higher than that of the present day -approximately double the widely quoted 3 +/- 1.5 K (refs 5, 6).

Southern Ocean sea-ice extent, productivity and iron flux over the past eight glacial cycles.

Sea ice and dust flux increased greatly in the Southern Ocean during the last glacial period. Palaeorecords provide contradictory evidence about marine productivity in this region, but beyond one glacial cycle, data were sparse. Here we present continuous chemical proxy data spanning the last eight glacial cycles (740,000 years) from the Dome C Antarctic ice core. These data constrain winter sea-ice extent in the Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean biogenic productivity and Patagonian climatic conditions. We found that maximum sea-ice extent is closely tied to Antarctic temperature on multi-millennial timescales, but less so on shorter timescales. Biological dimethylsulphide emissions south of the polar front seem to have changed little with climate, suggesting that sulphur compounds were not active in climate regulation. We observe large glacial-interglacial contrasts in iron deposition, which we infer reflects strongly changing Patagonian conditions. During glacial terminations, changes in Patagonia apparently preceded sea-ice reduction, indicating that multiple mechanisms may be responsible for different phases of CO2 increase during glacial terminations. We observe no changes in internal climatic feedbacks that could have caused the change in amplitude of Antarctic temperature variations observed 440,000 years ago.

Constraints on soluble aerosol iron flux to the Southern Ocean at the Last Glacial Maximum.

Relief of iron (Fe) limitation in the Southern Ocean during ice ages, with potentially increased carbon storage in the ocean, has been invoked as one driver of glacial-interglacial atmospheric CO2 cycles. Ice and marine sediment records demonstrate that atmospheric dust supply to the oceans increased by up to an order of magnitude during glacial intervals. However, poor constraints on soluble atmospheric Fe fluxes to the oceans limit assessment of the role of Fe in glacial-interglacial change. Here, using novel techniques, we present estimates of water- and seawater-soluble Fe solubility in Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) atmospheric dust from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome C and Berkner Island ice cores. Fe solubility was very variable (1-42%) during the interval, and frequently higher than typically assumed by models. Soluble aerosol Fe fluxes to Dome C at the LGM (0.01-0.84 mg m(-2) per year) suggest that soluble Fe deposition to the Southern Ocean would have been ≥10 × modern deposition, rivalling upwelling supply.

Preparation of aqueous standards for low temperature X-ray microanalysis.

A technique, using Nuclepore polycarbonate membrane filters as a containing medium for very small volumes of ionic standard solutions, to produce homogeneous ice standards is described. The standards are suitable for use in a scanning electron microscope. The relationship between elemental X-ray counts and ionic concentration is found to be linear. The method is rapid and simple. Minimum detectable concentrations are given.

Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years.

A high-resolution deuterium profile is now available along the entire European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C ice core, extending this climate record back to marine isotope stage 20.2, approximately 800,000 years ago. Experiments performed with an atmospheric general circulation model including water isotopes support its temperature interpretation. We assessed the general correspondence between Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their smoothed Antarctic counterparts for this Dome C record, which reveals the presence of such features with similar amplitudes during previous glacial periods. We suggest that the interplay between obliquity and precession accounts for the variable intensity of interglacial periods in ice core records.

A technique for the examination of polar ice using the scanning electron microscope.

The microstructure and location of impurities in polar ice are of great relevance to ice core studies. We describe a reliable method to examine ice in the scanning electron microscope (SEM). Specimens were cut in a cold room and could have their surfaces altered by sublimation either before (pre-etching) or after (etching) introduction to the cryo-chamber of the SEM. Pre-etching was used to smooth surfaces, whilst etching stripped away layers from the specimen surface, aiding the location of particles in situ, and allowing embedded structures to be revealed. X-ray analysis was used to determine the composition of localized impurities, which in some cases had been concentrated on the surface by etching. Examining uncoated surfaces was found to be advantageous and did not detract from qualitative X-ray analysis. Imaging uncoated was performed at low accelerating voltages and probe currents to avoid problems of surface charging.