Breast cancer incidence and mortality in a transitioning Chinese population: current and future trends.

BACKGROUND: Projections of future trends in cancer incidence and mortality are important for public health planning. METHODS: By using 1976-2010 data in Hong Kong, we fitted Poisson age-period-cohort models and made projections for future breast cancer incidence and mortality to 2025. RESULTS: Age-standardised breast cancer incidence (/mortality) is projected to increase (/decline) from 56.7 (/9.3) in 2011-2015 to 62.5 (/8.6) per 100,000 women in 2021-2025. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence pattern may relate to Hong Kong's socio-economic developmental history, while falling mortality trends are, most likely, due to improvements in survival from treatment advancement and improved health service delivery.

Age-period-cohort analysis of tuberculosis notifications in Hong Kong from 1961 to 2005.

BACKGROUND: Despite its wealth, excellent vital indices and robust health care infrastructure, Hong Kong has a relatively high incidence of tuberculosis (TB) (85.4 per 100 000). Hong Kong residents have also experienced a very rapid and recent epidemiological transition; the population largely originated from migration by southern Chinese in the mid 20th century. Given the potentially long latency period of TB infection, an investigation was undertaken to determine the extent to which TB incidence rates reflect the population history and the impact of public health interventions. METHODS: An age-period-cohort model was used to break down the Hong Kong TB notification rates from 1961 to 2005 into the effects of age, calendar period and birth cohort. RESULTS: Analysis by age showed a consistent pattern across all the cohorts by year of birth, with a peak in the relative risk of TB at 20-24 years of age. Analysis by year of birth showed an increase in the relative risk of TB from 1880 to 1900, stable risk until 1910, then a linear rate of decline from 1910 with an inflection point at 1990 for a steeper rate of decline. Period effects yielded only one inflection during the calendar years 1971-5. CONCLUSIONS: Economic development, social change and the World Health Organisation's short-course directly observed therapy (DOTS) strategy have contributed to TB control in Hong Kong. The linear cohort effect until 1990 suggests that a relatively high, but slowly falling, incidence of TB in Hong Kong will continue into the next few decades.

The impact of community psychological responses on outbreak control for severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the public's knowledge and perception of SARS and the extent to which various precautionary measures have been adopted. DESIGN: Cross sectional survey. SETTING: General population of Hong Kong at the height of the SARS outbreak (29 March to 6 April 2003). PARTICIPANTS: 1115 ethnic Chinese adults. MAIN RESULTS: Forty per cent did not recognise fomites as a possible mode of transmission whereas 55.1% believed that the infection could be transmitted airborne. A large proportion (30.1%) believed they were very or somewhat likely to contract SARS while only one quarter believed they were very likely to survive if they contracted the disease, benchmarked against an actual case fatality ratio of 2.8% at the time of the survey and 15%-20% according to current best estimates. Precautionary measures directed against person to person droplet spread were generally adopted by most while the prevention of transmission through fomites was not practised as frequently. Respondents with higher risk perceptions and a moderate level of anxiety were most likely to take comprehensive precautionary measures against the infection, as were older, female, more educated people as well as those with a positive contact history and SARS-like symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: The findings demonstrate that the promotion of protective personal health practices to interrupt the self sustaining transmission of the SARS virus in the community must take into account background perceptions of risk and anxiety levels of the public at large. Continuing public education about preventive measures should be targeted at the identified groups with low current uptake of precautions.

Satisfaction with inpatient care in a population-based Hong Kong Chinese sample.

OBJECTIVE: To measure self-reported inpatient experience in Hong Kong. DESIGN: Data were derived from the 2005 Thematic Household Survey. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 24,364 non-institutional and 3390 institutionalised respondents aged at least 18 years systematically drawn to represent the Hong Kong adult population, 6.9% of whom were admitted at least once as an inpatient during the previous 12 months. Data from this group was analysed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Picker Patient Experience Questionnaire-15. RESULTS: Overall, respondents scored their last inpatient episode 39.6 (range=0-100, the lower the score, the better the patient experience). Patients who sought care from private hospitals reported a lower Picker Patient Experience Questionnaire-15 score than those cared for in public facilities (31.1 vs 41.8 respectively, p<0.001). We observed substantial differences between public hospital geographic clusters that were confirmed by multivariable regression. When benchmarked against the UK, Germany and the USA, Hong Kong patients tended to report a significantly higher number of problems. CONCLUSIONS: We found systematic differences between the level of satisfaction and type of problems reported by Hong Kong Chinese compared to those in Euro-American settings. The observed heterogeneities among different public hospitals, between the private and public sectors, and among subgroups of inpatients should provide an evidence based on which quality improvement initiatives can be designed and evaluated.