A Bayesian Method for Material Identification of Composite Plates via Dispersion Curves.

Ultrasonic guided waves offer a convenient and practical approach to structural health monitoring and non-destructive evaluation. A key property of guided waves is the fully defined relationship between central frequency and propagation characteristics (phase velocity, group velocity and wavenumber)-which is described using dispersion curves. For many guided wave-based strategies, accurate dispersion curve information is invaluable, such as group velocity for localisation. From experimental observations of dispersion curves, a system identification procedure can be used to determine the governing material properties. As well as returning an estimated value, it is useful to determine the distribution of these properties based on measured data. A method of simulating samples from these distributions is to use the iterative Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure, which allows for freedom in the shape of the posterior. In this work, a scanning-laser Doppler vibrometer is used to record the propagation of Lamb waves in a unidirectional-glass-fibre composite plate, and dispersion curve data for various propagation angles are extracted. Using these measured dispersion curve data, the MCMC sampling procedure is performed to provide a Bayesian approach to determining the dispersion curve information for an arbitrary plate. The distribution of the material properties at each angle is discussed, including the inferred confidence in the predicted parameters. The percentage errors of the estimated values for the parameters were 10-15 points larger when using the most likely estimates, as opposed to calculating from the posterior distributions, highlighting the advantages of using a probabilistic approach.

Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterize uncertainty in model inputs and how that propagates through to outputs or predictions; examples of this can be seen in the papers of this issue. In this review and perspective piece, we draw attention to an important and under-addressed source of uncertainty in our predictions-that of uncertainty in the model structure or the equations themselves. The difference between imperfect models and reality is termed model discrepancy, and we are often uncertain as to the size and consequences of this discrepancy. Here, we provide two examples of the consequences of discrepancy when calibrating models at the ion channel and action potential scales. Furthermore, we attempt to account for this discrepancy when calibrating and validating an ion channel model using different methods, based on modelling the discrepancy using Gaussian processes and autoregressive-moving-average models, then highlight the advantages and shortcomings of each approach. Finally, suggestions and lines of enquiry for future work are provided. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Towards the Probabilistic Analysis of Small Bowel Capsule Endoscopy Features to Predict Severity of Duodenal Histology in Patients with Villous Atrophy.

Small bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE) can be complementary to histological assessment of celiac disease (CD) and serology negative villous atrophy (SNVA). Determining the severity of disease on SBCE using statistical machine learning methods can be useful in the follow up of patients. SBCE can play an additional role in differentiating between CD and SNVA. De-identified SBCEs of patients with CD and SNVA were included. Probabilistic analysis of features on SBCE were used to predict severity of duodenal histology and to distinguish between CD and SNVA. Patients with higher Marsh scores were more likely to have a positive SBCE and a continuous distribution of macroscopic features of disease than those with lower Marsh scores. The same pattern was also true for patients with CD when compared to patients with SNVA. The validation accuracy when predicting the severity of Marsh scores and when distinguishing between CD and SNVA was 69.1% in both cases. When the proportions of each SBCE class group within the dataset were included in the classification model, to distinguish between the two pathologies, the validation accuracy increased to 75.3%. The findings of this work suggest that by using features of CD and SNVA on SBCE, predictions can be made of the type of pathology and the severity of disease.

Fatigue-Crack Detection in a Multi-Riveted Strap-Joint Aluminium Aircraft Panel Using Amplitude Characteristics of Diffuse Lamb Wave Field.

Structural health monitoring of riveted aircraft panels is a real challenge for maintenance engineers. Here, a diffused Lamb wave field is used for fatigue-crack detection in a multi-riveted strap-joint aircraft panel. The panel is instrumented with a network of low-profile surface-bonded piezoceramic transducers. Various amplitude characteristics of Lamb waves are used to extract information on fatigue damage. A statistical outlier analysis based on these characteristics is also performed to detect damage. The experimental work is supported by simplified modelling of wave scattering from crack tips to explain complex response features. The Local Interaction Simulation Approach (LISA) is used for this modelling task. The results demonstrate the potential and limitations of the method for reliable fatigue-crack detection in complex aircraft components.

A sampling-based approach for information-theoretic inspection management.

A partially supervised approach to Structural Health Monitoring is proposed, to manage the cost associated with expert inspections and maximize the value of monitoring regimes. Unlike conventional data-driven procedures, the monitoring classifier is learnt online while making predictions-negating the requirement for complete data before a system is in operation (which are rarely available). Most critically, periodic inspections are replaced (or enhanced) by an automatic inspection regime, which only queries measurements that appear informative to the evolving model of the damage-sensitive features. The result is a partially supervised Dirichlet process clustering that manages expert inspections online given incremental data. The method is verified on a simulated example and demonstrated on in situ bridge monitoring data.

On the application of population-based structural health monitoring in aerospace engineering.

One of the major obstacles to the widespread uptake of data-based Structural Health Monitoring so far, has been the lack of damage-state data for the (mostly high-value) structures of interest. To address this issue, a methodology for sharing data and models between structures has been developed-Population-Based Structural Health Monitoring (PBSHM). PBSHM works on the principle that, if populations of structures are sufficiently similar, or share sections which can be considered similar, then data and models can be shared between them for use in diagnostic inference. The PBSHM methodology therefore relies on two key components: firstly, identifying whether structures are sufficiently similar for successful transfer of diagnostics; this is achieved by the use of an abstract representation of structures. Secondly, machine learning techniques are exploited to effectively transfer information between the structures in a way that improves damage detection and classification across the whole population. Although PBSHM has been conceived to deal with large and general classes of structures, much of the detailed developments presented so far have concerned bridges; the aim of this paper is to provide similarly detailed discussions in the aerospace context. The overview here will examine data transfer between aircraft components, as well as illustrating how one might construct an abstract representation of a full aircraft.

Albumin level and patient age predict outcomes in patients referred for gastrostomy insertion: internal and external validation of a gastrostomy score and comparison with artificial neural networks.

BACKGROUND: Significant mortality after gastrostomy insertion remains and some risk factors have been identified, but no predictive scoring system exists. OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for mortality, formulate a predictive scoring system, and validate the score. Comparison to an artificial neural network (ANN). DESIGN: Endoscopic database analysis. SETTING: Six hospitals (2 teaching hospitals) in the South Yorkshire region, United Kingdom. PATIENTS: This study involved all patients referred for gastrostomy insertion. INTERVENTION: Generation of clinical scores to predict 30-day mortality in patients undergoing gastrostomy insertion. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: Risk factors for 30-day mortality. Internal and external validation of the score. Comparison with an ANN. RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that 30-day mortality was associated with age, albumin levels, and cardiac and neurological comorbidities. Multivariate analysis showed that only age and albumin levels were independent. Modeling provided scores of 0, 1, 2, and 3 corresponding to 30-day mortalities of 0% (0-2.1), 7% (2.9-13.9), 21.3% (13.5-30.9), and 37.3% (24.1-51.9), respectively. Application of the scoring system at the other teaching hospital and the 4 district general hospitals gave 30-day mortality rates that were not significantly different from those predicted. Receiver operating characteristic curves for the score and the ANN were comparable. LIMITATIONS: Nonrandomized study. Score not used as a decision-making tool. CONCLUSION: The gastrostomy score provides an estimate of 30-day mortality for patients (and their relatives) when gastrostomy insertion is being discussed. This score requires evaluation as a decision-making tool in clinical practice. ANN analysis results were similar to the outcomes from the clinical score.

Simultaneous Force Regression and Movement Classification of Fingers via Surface EMG within a Unified Bayesian Framework.

This contribution presents a novel methodology for myolectric-based control using surface electromyographic (sEMG) signals recorded during finger movements. A multivariate Bayesian mixture of experts (MoE) model is introduced which provides a powerful method for modeling force regression at the fingertips, while also performing finger movement classification as a by-product of the modeling algorithm. Bayesian inference of the model allows uncertainties to be naturally incorporated into the model structure. This method is tested using data from the publicly released NinaPro database which consists of sEMG recordings for 6 degree-of-freedom force activations for 40 intact subjects. The results demonstrate that the MoE model achieves similar performance compared to the benchmark set by the authors of NinaPro for finger force regression. Additionally, inherent to the Bayesian framework is the inclusion of uncertainty in the model parameters, naturally providing confidence bounds on the force regression predictions. Furthermore, the integrated clustering step allows a detailed investigation into classification of the finger movements, without incurring any extra computational effort. Subsequently, a systematic approach to assessing the importance of the number of electrodes needed for accurate control is performed via sensitivity analysis techniques. A slight degradation in regression performance is observed for a reduced number of electrodes, while classification performance is unaffected.

Evaluation of neural network robust reliability using information-gap theory.

A novel technique for the evaluation of neural network robustness against uncertainty using a nonprobabilistic approach is presented. Conventional optimization techniques were employed to train multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks, which were then probed with an uncertainty analysis using an information-gap model to quantify the network response to uncertainty in the input data. It is demonstrated that the best performing network on data with low uncertainty is not in general the optimal network on data with a higher degree of input uncertainty. Using the concepts of information-gap theory, this paper develops a theoretical framework for information-gap uncertainty applied to neural networks, and explores the practical application of the procedure to three sample cases. The first consists of a simple two-dimensional (2-D) classification network operating on a known Gaussian distribution, the second a nine-lass vibration classification problem from an aircraft wing, and the third a two-class example from a database of breast cancer incidence.

Simulation of ultrasonic lamb wave generation, propagation and detection for a reconfigurable air coupled scanner.

A computer simulator, to facilitate the design and assessment of a reconfigurable, air-coupled ultrasonic scanner is described and evaluated. The specific scanning system comprises a team of remote sensing agents, in the form of miniature robotic platforms that can reposition non-contact Lamb wave transducers over a plate type of structure, for the purpose of non-destructive evaluation (NDE). The overall objective is to implement reconfigurable array scanning, where transmission and reception are facilitated by different sensing agents which can be organised in a variety of pulse-echo and pitch-catch configurations, with guided waves used to generate data in the form of 2-D and 3-D images. The ability to reconfigure the scanner adaptively requires an understanding of the ultrasonic wave generation, its propagation and interaction with potential defects and boundaries. Transducer behaviour has been simulated using a linear systems approximation, with wave propagation in the structure modelled using the local interaction simulation approach (LISA). Integration of the linear systems and LISA approaches are validated for use in Lamb wave scanning by comparison with both analytic techniques and more computationally intensive commercial finite element/difference codes. Starting with fundamental dispersion data, the paper goes on to describe the simulation of wave propagation and the subsequent interaction with artificial defects and plate boundaries, before presenting a theoretical image obtained from a team of sensing agents based on the current generation of sensors and instrumentation.

The application of machine learning to structural health monitoring.

In broad terms, there are two approaches to damage identification. Model-driven methods establish a high-fidelity physical model of the structure, usually by finite element analysis, and then establish a comparison metric between the model and the measured data from the real structure. If the model is for a system or structure in normal (i.e. undamaged) condition, any departures indicate that the structure has deviated from normal condition and damage is inferred. Data-driven approaches also establish a model, but this is usually a statistical representation of the system, e.g. a probability density function of the normal condition. Departures from normality are then signalled by measured data appearing in regions of very low density. The algorithms that have been developed over the years for data-driven approaches are mainly drawn from the discipline of pattern recognition, or more broadly, machine learning. The object of this paper is to illustrate the utility of the data-driven approach to damage identification by means of a number of case studies.

An introduction to structural health monitoring.

The process of implementing a damage identification strategy for aerospace, civil and mechanical engineering infrastructure is referred to as structural health monitoring (SHM). Here, damage is defined as changes to the material and/or geometric properties of these systems, including changes to the boundary conditions and system connectivity, which adversely affect the system's performance. A wide variety of highly effective local non-destructive evaluation tools are available for such monitoring. However, the majority of SHM research conducted over the last 30 years has attempted to identify damage in structures on a more global basis. The past 10 years have seen a rapid increase in the amount of research related to SHM as quantified by the significant escalation in papers published on this subject. The increased interest in SHM and its associated potential for significant life-safety and economic benefits has motivated the need for this theme issue. This introduction begins with a brief history of SHM technology development. Recent research has begun to recognize that the SHM problem is fundamentally one of the statistical pattern recognition (SPR) and a paradigm to address such a problem is described in detail herein as it forms the basis for organization of this theme issue. In the process of providing the historical overview and summarizing the SPR paradigm, the subsequent articles in this theme issue are cited in an effort to show how they fit into this overview of SHM. In conclusion, technical challenges that must be addressed if SHM is to gain wider application are discussed in a general manner.