Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a TB high endemic city. METHODS: This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models. RESULTS: A total of 1620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both sexes, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend in the years 2002-2018, with a trend of stability. CONCLUSIONS: The study evidenced a decreasing trend in tuberculosis, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, for both sex and age; however, in a step really slow from that recommended by the World Health Organization. According to the results, the disease would have achieved a level of stability in the city next years, however it might have been aggravated by the pandemic. These findings are relevant to evidence the serious behavior and trends of TB in a high endemic scenario considering a context prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Determinants of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in São Paulo-Brazil: a multilevel Bayesian analysis of factors associated with individual, community and access to health services.

OBJECTIVE: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remains a serious public health problem worldwide. Accordingly, this study sought to identify individual, community and access to health services risk factors for MDR-TB. METHODS: Retrospective cohort of all TB cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2016 in the state of São Paulo. A Bayesian spatial hierarchical analysis with a multilevel design was carried out. RESULTS: It was identified that the history of previous TB treatment (Odds Ratios [OR]:13.86, 95% credibility interval [95% CI]:12.06-15.93), positive sputum culture test (OR: 5.26, 95% CI: 4.44-6.23), diabetes mellitus (OR: 2.34, 95% CI: 1.87-2.91), residing at a standard address (OR: 2.62, 95% CI: 1.91-3.60), positive sputum smear microscopy (OR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.44-2.12), cavitary pulmonary TB (OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.14-1.60) and diagnosis performed due to spontaneous request (OR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.10-1.46) were associated with MDR-TB. Furthermore, municipalities that performed HIV tests in less than 42.65% of patients with TB (OR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.25-1.79), that diagnosed TB cases only after death (OR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.17-1.93) and that had more than 20.16% of their population with income between » and ½ of one minimum wage (OR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.30-1.87) were also related to the MDR-TB. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of these predictive factors may help to develop more comprehensive disease prevention strategies for MDR-TB, avoiding the risks expressed regarding drug resistance expansion.

OBJECTIF: La tuberculose multirésistante (TB-MDR) reste un grave problème de santé publique dans le monde. Cette étude visait à identifier les facteurs de risque individuels, communautaires et d'accès aux services de santé pour la TB-MDR. MÉTHODES: Analyse de cohorte rétrospective de tous les cas de TB diagnostiqués entre 2006 et 2016 dans l'Etat de São Paulo par analyse bayésienne spatiale à plusieurs niveaux. RÉSULTATS: Les antécédents de traitements antituberculeux (Rapports de cotes [OR]: 13,86, Intervalle de confiance à 95% [IC95%]: 12.06-15.93), un test de culture d'expectorations positif (OR: 5,26, IC95%: 4,44-6,23), le diabète sucré (OR: 2,34, IC95%: 1,87-2,91), la résidence à une adresse standard (OR: 2,62, IC95%: 1,91-3,60), la microscopie à frottis positif (OR: 1,74, IC95%: 1,44-2,12), la TB pulmonaire (OR: 1,35, IC95%: 1,14-1,60) et le diagnostic réalisé en raison d'une demande spontanée (OR: 1,26; IC95%: 1,10-1,46) étaient associés à la TB-MDR. Les municipalités qui ont effectué des tests de dépistage du VIH chez moins de 42,65% des patients atteints de TB (OR: 1,50, IC95%: 1,25-1,79), qui ont diagnostiqué des cas de TB uniquement après le décès (OR: 1,50, IC95%: 1,17-1,93) et qui avaient plus de 20,16% de leur population avec un revenu entre » et ½ d'un salaire minimum (OR: 1,56, IC95%: 1,30-1,87) étaient également associées à la TB-MDR. CONCLUSIONS: La connaissance de ces facteurs prédictifs peut aider à développer des stratégies plus complètes de prévention des maladies pour la TB-MDR, en évitant les risques d'extension de la résistance aux médicaments.

Detection of risk clusters for deaths due to tuberculosis specifically in areas of southern Brazil where the disease was supposedly a non-problem.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is the infectious disease that kills the most people worldwide. The use of geoepidemiological techniques to demonstrate the dynamics of the disease in vulnerable communities is essential for its control. Thus, this study aimed to identify risk clusters for TB deaths and their variation over time. METHODS: This ecological study considered cases of TB deaths in residents of Londrina, Brazil between 2008 and 2015. We used standard, isotonic scan statistics for the detection of spatial risk clusters. The Poisson discrete model was adopted with the high and low rates option used for 10, 30 and 50% of the population at risk, with circular format windows and 999 replications considered the maximum cluster size. Getis-Ord Gi* (Gi*) statistics were used to diagnose hotspot areas for TB mortality. Kernel density was used to identify whether the clusters changed over time. RESULTS: For the standard version, spatial risk clusters for 10, 30 and 50% of the exposed population were 4.9 (95% CI 2.6-9.4), 3.2 (95% CI: 2.1-5.7) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.1-5.7), respectively. For the isotonic spatial statistics, the risk clusters for 10, 30 and 50% of the exposed population were 2.8 (95% CI: 1.5-5.1), 2.7 (95% CI: 1.6-4.4), 2.2 (95% CI: 1.4-3.9), respectively. All risk clusters were located in the eastern and northern regions of the municipality. Additionally, through Gi*, hotspot areas were identified in the eastern and western regions. CONCLUSIONS: There were important risk areas for tuberculosis mortality in the eastern and northern regions of the municipality. Risk clusters for tuberculosis deaths were observed in areas where TB mortality was supposedly a non-problem. The isotonic and Gi* statistics were more sensitive for the detection of clusters in areas with a low number of cases; however, their applicability in public health is still restricted.

How do social-economic differences in urban areas affect tuberculosis mortality in a city in the tri-border region of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) launched the "End TB Strategy", which aims to reduce tuberculosis (TB) mortality by 95% by 2035, Brazil has made a commitment to this, however, one challenge is achieving the goal in the border region, where the TB situation is more critical. The proposal was to analyse the spatial mortality due to TB and its socio-economic determinants in the general population, around the border areas of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina, as well as the temporal trend in this region. METHOD: This ecological study considered the cases of TB deaths of residents of Foz do Iguaçu (BR), with its units of analysis being the census sectors. The standardized mortality rate was calculated for each area. Socioeconomic variables data were obtained from the 2010 Demographic Census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The scan statistic was applied to calculate the spatial relative risk (RR), considering a 95% confidence interval (CI). Spatial dependence was analysed using the Global Bivariate Moran I and Local Bivariate Moran I (LISA) to test the relationship between the socioeconomic conditions of the urban areas and mortality from TB. Analysis of the temporal trend was also performed using the Prais-Winsten test. RESULTS: A total of 74 cases of TB death were identified, of which 53 (71.6%) were male and 51 (68.9%) people of white skin colour. The mortality rate ranged from 0.28 to 22.75 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. A spatial relative risk area was identified, RR = 5.07 (95% CI 1.79-14.30). Mortality was associated with: proportion of people of brown skin colour (I: 0.0440, p = 0.033), income (low income I: - 0.0611, p = 0.002; high income I: - 0.0449, p = 0.026) and density of residents (3 and 4 residents, I: 0.0537, p = 0.007; 10 or more residents, I: - 0.0390, p = 0.035). There was an increase in the mortality rate in people of brown skin colour (6.1%; 95% CI = 0.029, 0.093). CONCLUSION: Death due to TB was associated with income, race resident density and social conditions. Although the TB mortality rate is stationary in the general population, it is increasing among people of brown skin colour.

Validity and reliability of the tuberculosis-related stigma scale version for Brazilian Portuguese.

BACKGROUND: Stigma associated with tuberculosis (TB) has been an object of interest in several regions of the world. The behaviour presented by patients as a result of social discrimination has contributed to delays in diagnosis and the abandonment of treatment, leading to an increase in the cases of TB and drug resistance. The identification of populations affected by stigma and its measurement can be assessed with the use of valid and reliable instruments developed or adapted to the target culture. This aim of this study was to analyse the initial psychometric properties of the Tuberculosis-Related Stigma scale in Brazil, for TB patients. METHODS: The Tuberculosis-Related Stigma scale is a specific scale for measuring stigma associated with TB, originally validated in Thailand. It presents two dimensions to be assessed, namely Community perspectives toward tuberculosis and Patient perspectives toward tuberculosis. The first has 11 items regarding the behaviour of the community in relation to TB, and the second is made up of 12 items related to feelings such as fear, guilt and sorrow in coping with the disease. A pilot test was conducted with 83 TB patients, in order to obtain the initial psychometric properties of the scale in the Brazilian Portuguese version, enabling simulation of the field study. RESULTS: As regards its psychometric properties, the scale presented acceptable internal consistency for its dimensions, with values ≥0.70, the absence of floor and ceiling effects, which is favourable for the property of scale responsiveness, satisfactory converging validity for both dimensions, with values over 0.30 for initial studies, and diverging validity, with adjustment values different from 100%. CONCLUSION: The results found show that the Tuberculosis-Related Stigma scale can be a valid and reliable instrument for the Brazilian context.

Integrated health service delivery networks and tuberculosis avoidable hospitalizations: is there a relation between them in Brazil?

BACKGROUND: The early identification of the Breathing Symptoms within the scope of Primary Health Care is recommended, and is also one of the strategies of national sanitary authorities for reaching the elimination of tuberculosis. The purpose of this study is to consider which attributes and which territories have shown the most significant progress in Primary Health Care, in terms of coordination of Health Care Networks, and also check if those areas of Primary Health Care that are most critical regarding coordination, there were more or less cases of avoidable hospitalizations for tuberculosis. METHODS: This is an ecological study that uses primary and secondary data. For analysis, coropletic maps were developed through the ArcGIS software, version 10.2. There was also the calculation of gross annual and Bayesian rates for hospitalizations for tuberculosis, for each Primary Health Care territory. RESULTS: There were satisfactory results for attributes such as Population (n = 37; 80.4 %), Primary Health Care (n = 43; 93.5 %), Support System (n = 45; 97.8 %); the exceptions were Logistics System (n = 32; 76.0 %) and Governance System, with fewer units in good condition (n = 31; 67.3 %). There is no evidence of any connection between networks' coordination by Primary Health Care and tuberculosis avoidable admissions. CONCLUSION: The results show that progress has been made regarding the coordination of the Health Care Networks, and a positive trend has been shown, even though the levels are not excellent. It was found no relationship between the critical areas of Primary Health Care and tuberculosis avoidable hospitalizations, possibly because other variables necessary to comprehend the phenomena.

Assessment of the coordination of integrated health service delivery networks by the primary health care: COPAS questionnaire validation in the Brazilian context.

BACKGROUND: Health systems organized as networks and coordinated by the Primary Health Care (PHC) may contribute to the improvement of clinical care, sanitary conditions, satisfaction of patients and reduction of local budget expenditures. The aim of this study was to adapt and validate a questionnaire - COPAS - to assess the coordination of Integrated Health Service Delivery Networks by the Primary Health Care. METHODS: A cross sectional approach was used. The population was pooled from Family Health Strategy healthcare professionals, of the Alfenas region (Minas Gerais, Brazil). Data collection was performed from August to October 2013. The results were checked for the presence of floor and ceiling effects and the internal consistency measured through Cronbach alpha. Construct validity was verified through convergent and discriminant values following Multitrait-Multimethod (MTMM) analysis. RESULTS: Floor and ceiling effects were absent. The internal consistency of the instrument was satisfactory; as was the convergent validity, with a few correlations lower then 0.30. The discriminant validity values of the majority of items, with respect to their own dimension, were found to be higher or significantly higher than their correlations with the dimensions to which they did not belong. CONCLUSION: The results showed that the COPAS instrument has satisfactory initial psychometric properties and may be used by healthcare managers and workers to assess the PHC coordination performance within the Integrated Health Service Delivery Network.

[Tuberculosis and social inequity in health: an ecological study using multivariate statistical techniques, São Paulo, Brazil]. / Tuberculose e iniquidade social em saúde: uma análise ecológica utilizando técnicas estatísticas multivariadas, São Paulo, Brasil.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the patterns of São Paulo state municipalities, in Brazil, regarding the relationship between tuberculosis and indicators of health care services, health care service availability, context, and social inequality. METHODS: This ecological study covered all 645 municipalities of São Paulo and eight variables belonging to three dimensions: health care service availability, context, and social inequality. Data were analyzed using hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering, principal components analysis, and geoprocessing. RESULTS: The analysis revealed five groups of municipalities: group 1 (117 municipalities), with similar directly observed treatment (DOT) and family health strategy (FHS) coverage, high tuberculosis incidence and death coefficients, and a low human development index (HDI); group 2 (142 municipalities), with low DOT and FHS coverage; group 3 (36 municipalities), with medium DOT and FHS coverage and high tuberculosis incidence, high demand for anti-HIV testing, and treatment dropout; group 4 (186 municipalities) with lower HDI as compared to groups 2, 3, and 5, but high FHS coverage and the lowest numbers of anti-HIV testing, tuberculosis incidence, and DOT coverage; and group 5 (164 municipalities), with better social conditions as compared to the other groups, medium FHS coverage, and higher DOT coverage. Together, the first two components selected for the study-health service availability in terms of DOT coverage indicator and social inequality indicator-explained 76.96% of the variance. In municipalities with high DOT coverage there was evidence of better organized tuberculosis control services. CONCLUSIONS: Municipalities with the highest social inequality had FHS coverage. However, without DOT, FHS seem less efficient to control tuberculosis.

[The families and directly observed treatment of tuberculosis: senses and prospects to the production of care]. / Famílias e o tratamento diretamente observado da tuberculose: sentidos e perspectivas para produção do cuidado.

The purpose was to identify the families' participation on care management of patients with tuberculosis. Also, to ascertain the contribution offered by health professionals for patients'families with ongoing treatment, and investigate the importance attributed by the families to the directly observed treatment It is a descriptive, cross-sectional study conducted in the municipality of Ribeirão Preto/SP with families of patients diagnosed with tuberculosis. For data collection, it was developed an instrument that underwent pretesting and content validation. Ninety four subjects were interviewed. According to the results, 64 (68.096) relatives participated in the care management and 81 (86.2%) reported a good relationship with the staff. Sixty three family members (67%) did not receive any guidance about drugs and 75 (80.0%) of the respondents considered the strategy as relevant. The findings indicate that the Directly Observed Treatment has limitations regarding the guidelines of clinical management of the disease, the inclusion of family in care management and understanding of its goals.

Disease burden of congenital Zika virus syndrome in Brazil and its association with socioeconomic data.

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection became a global public health concern, causing an epidemic in Latin America from 2015 to 2016, when a sudden increase in cases of microcephaly and other congenital anomalies was observed. In 2016, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization defined congenital Zika-associated syndrome (CZS) as a set of congenital anomalies seen in children born to mothers with a history of gestational Zika fever, who have microcephaly as the most prevalent clinical sign. In order to describe the magnitude of CZS in Brazil, this study estimated the burden of disease due to CZS in Brazil using the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) indicator and other frequency measures, such as incidence and mortality rate, during the years 2015-2020. The association of these indicators with socioeconomic variables was also evaluated using Spearman's correlation coefficient. Choropleth maps were used to evaluate the spatial distribution of the indicators evaluated and the spatial autocorrelation was verified by the Bivariate Moran Local Index. From 2015 to 2020, 3,591 cases of CZS were confirmed in Brazil, with an incidence of 44.03 cases per 1000 live births, and a specific mortality of 12.35 deaths per 1000 live births. A global loss of 30,027.44 DALYs was estimated from 2015 to 2020. The Northeast region had the highest values for all health indicators assessed. Spatial correlation and autocorrelation analyses showed significant associations between health and socioeconomic indicators, such as per capita income, Gini index, illiteracy rate and basic sanitation. The study allowed us to have access to all reported cases of CZS, showing us the possible situation of the disease in Brazil; therefore, we believe that our results can help in the understanding of future studies.

Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis and COVID-19: A Scoping Review on a New Threat to Antimicrobial Resistance.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of COVID-19 on the morbidity and mortality associated with drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB). METHODS: A comprehensive review of articles published in international databases since December 2019 was conducted. The findings are presented in a narrative format, supplemented with tables, diagrams, and a map created using ArcGIS software. RESULTS: Thirty-five studies were selected, highlighting the significant consequences of COVID-19 on TB and DR-TB treatment progress. Four main thematic areas were identified: Clinical and epidemiological aspects of the interaction between COVID-19 and DR-TB; Management of physical resources and the team; Challenges and circumstances; Perspectives and possibilities. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly negatively impacted the control of long-standing diseases like TB, particularly in the context of morbidity and mortality related to DR-TB.

Teaching and learning strategies in Home Enteral Nutritional Therapy: Knowledge gains perceived by caregivers.

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate how different educational strategies contribute to knowledge gains perceived by caregivers of people using Enteral Nutritional Therapy. METHOD: a quasi-experimental study conducted in two stages: the first one included an interactive lecture class (LC) and the second was carried out in two groups: in-situ simulated skills training (ST) and reading of an educational booklet (EB). The caregivers answered a self-administered questionnaire to assess knowledge before and after the interventions; for the analysis, a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution was proposed and the comparisons were carried out using orthogonal contrasts. RESULTS: the participants were 30 caregivers; evidence of a difference in knowledge between the t1and t0 moments is evidenced. The analysis of the final comparison about the knowledge gain between the EB and ST groups, according to Student's t, evidenced an estimated difference of -1,33, with 95% CI (-4.98; 2.31) and p-value=0.46. CONCLUSION: knowledge was further increased between the t1 and t0 moments, when compared to the t2 and t1 moments in both groups. When compared, we cannot conclude that one of the groups changed more than the other in relation to moment t0 and t2; thus, the study evidenced the knowledge gain after all the educational strategies in both groups.

Factors associated with deaths from COVID-19 in a region of northeastern Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: There is a need to improve knowledge and understanding of the factors associated with mortality from COVID-19 so that managers and decision-makers can implement strategies to mitigate and control the severe forms of the disease. This study aimed to determine the factors associated with deaths from COVID-19 in the state of Maranhão, in northeastern Brazil. METHODOLOGY: This is a cross-sectional and analytical study with patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 who died from March 2020 to January 2022. Simple and multiple logistic regression models were used to assess the association between clinical-epidemiological characteristics and death. The odds ratios were expressed using a 95% confidence interval and a 5% significance level. RESULTS: A total of 386,567 cases of COVID-19 were registered in the period, of which 10,986 died. Risk factors associated with deaths from COVID-19 were male sex, age over 30 years, positive reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) result, positive CT scan, and having one or more associated comorbidities. The three comorbidities linked to the highest propensity to die were diabetes mellitus, neurological disease, and obesity. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings support the implementation of strategic actions by health care and surveillance professionals and managers towards reducing the incidence of the risk factors for mortality by COVID-19 in Maranhão.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of syphilis in pregnant women and congenital syphilis in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

We aimed to estimate the occurrence of syphilis in pregnant women (SPW) and congenital syphilis (CS) in the municipalities of the state of São Paulo (SP) and evaluate their relationship with socioeconomic, demographic, and health care variables. We developed an ecological study based on secondary data of SPW and CS with spatiotemporal components from 645 municipalities in SP including data from 2007 to 2018. We modeled the data in a Bayesian context, considered spatial and temporal random effects, and used binomial negative probability distributions. We found a continuous increase in the relative temporal risk of SPW, from 2007 to 2018, and CS, from 2007 to 2017, when their incidences increased by 8.6 and 6.6 times, respectively. This increase occurred en bloc in practically all municipalities of SP. The increase in SPW was associated with teenage pregnancy, municipalities with a large number of inhabitants, and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence. The increase in CS was associated with municipalities with a large number of inhabitants, incomplete antenatal care, and AIDS incidence. Although actions to control these diseases are required in all municipalities of SP, the identification of high-risk areas points to priority regions for development.

Vulnerable territories to tuberculosis-diabetes mellitus comorbidity in a northeastern Brazilian scenario.

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological investigations on tuberculosis-diabetes comorbidity using spatial analysis should be encouraged towards a more comprehensive view of the health of individuals affected by such comorbidity in different contexts. This study analyzes the territories vulnerable to tuberculosis-diabetes comorbidity in a municipality in northeastern Brazil using spatial analysis techniques. METHODS: An ecological study was carried out in Imperatriz, Maranhão, Brazil. Tuberculosis-diabetes cases reported in the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System between 2009 and 2018 were analyzed. Kernel density estimation and spatial scanning techniques were used to identify the areas with the greatest occurrence of spatial clusters. RESULTS: A heterogeneous spatial distribution was found, ranging from 0.00 to 4.12 cases/km2. The spatial scanning analysis revealed three high-risk spatial clusters with statistical significance (p < 0.05), involving eleven strictly urban sectors with a relative risk of 4.00 (95% CI: 2.60-6.80), 5.10 (95% CI: 2.75-7.30), and 6.10 (95% CI: 3.21-8.92), indicating that the population living in these areas had a high risk of tuberculosis-diabetes comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: The highest concentration of cases/km2, as well as risk clusters, were found in areas with high circulation of people and socio-economic and environmental vulnerabilities. Such findings reinforce the need for public health interventions to reduce social inequalities.

Tuberculosis/HIV co-infection in Northeastern Brazil: Prevalence trends, spatial distribution, and associated factors.

INTRODUCTION: The objective was to analyze the prevalence trend, spatial distribution, and TB-HIV co-infection-associated factors in an endemic scenario for TB in Northeastern Brazil. METHODS: An ecological and temporal series study was conducted based on secondary data obtained from the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System between January 2008 and December 2019. The prevalence rates were determined for each year and the average for the period. Prais-Winsten regressions were used for temporal variation analysis, scanning techniques were used to detect spatial clusters, and the Poisson regression model was used to explore the factors associated with the outcome. RESULTS: A total of 947 TB cases were reported, of which 501 (52.9%) underwent HIV testing, and of these, 73 were positive. The average prevalence was 20.0%, ranging from 1.5% in 2018 to 44.4% in 2009. A decreasing trend was found. Sixty-seven cases (92%) were geocoded, and two statistically significant (p < 0.005) high relative risk (RR) spatial clusters were detected. Statistically significant associations (p < 0.05) between the co-infection and variables such as male gender, living in the urban area, entry due to relapse, and case closure due to loss to follow-up were evidenced, and these variables constituted risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: A decreasing prevalence of TB-HIV co-infection has been found, as well as a heterogeneous spatial distribution with the formation of spatial clusters in urban areas characterized by socio-spatial inequalities associated with clinical-epidemiological factors. Such findings provide subsidies for rethinking health care activities and improving public policies for vulnerable populations.

Risk factors associated with drug-resistant tuberculosis in prisons in Sao Paulo State, Brazil (2006-2016).

INTRODUCTION: Prisons are high-risk settings for drug-resistant tuberculosis because the prevalence of the tuberculosis (TB) is much higher than in the general population. This study to investigated the factors associated with drug-resistant tuberculosis in prisons in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODOLOGY: Retrospective cohort of drug-resistant TB cases for incarcerated people in São Paulo state, reported in the Tuberculosis Patient Control System between 2006 and 2016. To analyze the factors associated with drug-resistant TB, the backward method (likelihood ratio) was used, determining the adjusted odds ratio and respective 95%CI coefficients. Multiple models were proposed to adjust for potential confusion and interaction. The best fit model was selected based on the lowest Akaike information criterion coefficient. RESULTS: In total, 473 drug-resistant tuberculosis cases were reported in the prison population of Sao Paulo state, the majority were male. The cases that presented negative results for sputum smear and sputum culture had, respectively, an aOR=0.6 and aOR=0.16 for drug-resistant tuberculosis in relation to the cases with positive results. The cases where the patient had AIDS and reported alcoholism, respectively, an aOR=1.47 and aOR=1.60 for drug-resistant TB. Individuals with a background treatment history for TB presented a stronger association with drug-resistant tuberculosis, aOR=35.08. CONCLUSIONS: Sputum spear, sputum culture, chest X-ray, AIDS, alcoholism and background treatment history for TB were factors associated with resistance to antituberculosis drugs among prisoners. This is useful for the implementation of disease control measures related to the detection and monitoring of cases in the prison system.

Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá - Amapá.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence after the implementation of the rapid molecular test (RMT-TB), to identify whether tuberculosis presents seasonal variation and to classify the territory according to case density and risk areas in Macapá, Amapá. METHODS: Ecological study of tuberculosis cases registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN - Information System for Notifiable Diseases) between 2001 and 2017. We used the Prais-Winsten test to classify the temporal trend of incidence and the interrupted time series to identify changes in the temporal trend before and after the implementation of the rapid molecular test, and to verify seasonality in the municipality. The Kernel estimator was used to classify case density and scan statistics to identify areas of tuberculosis risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,730 cases were identified, with a decreasing temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence (-0.27% per month, 95%CI -0.13 to -0.41). The time series showed no change in level after the implementation of the GeneXpert®MTB/RIF molecular test; however, the incidence increased in the post-test period (+2.09% per month, 95%CI 0.92 to 3.27). Regarding the seasonal variation, it showed growth (+13.7%/month, 95%CI 4.71 to 23.87) from December to June, the rainy season - called amazon winter season -, and decrease (-9.21% per month, CI95% -1.37 to -16.63) in the other periods. We classified areas with high density of cases in the Central and Northern districts using Kernel and identified three protection clusters, SC1 (RR = 0.07), SC2 (RR = 0.23) and SC3 (RR = 0.36), and a high-risk cluster, SC4 (RR = 1.47), with the scan statistics. CONCLUSION: The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was decreasing in the time series; however, detection increased after the introduction of RMT-TB, and tuberculosis showed seasonal behavior. The case distribution was heterogeneous, with a tendency to concentrate in vulnerable and risk territories, evidencing a pattern of disease inequality in the territory.

Social inequalities and their association with the leprosy burden in a Brazilian city of low endemicity: An ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the association between social inequalities and the leprosy burden in a low endemicity scenario in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: This ecological study was carried out in the city of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo, Brazil, considering leprosy cases notified from 2006 to 2016. Regarding social inequalities, dimensions related to high household density, literacy, home occupation conditions, health conditions, household income, ethnicity and age were considered. The generalised additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) was used to verify the association between the social inequalities and leprosy burden. RESULTS: The increase in men and women with no education and people with an income of 1 to 2 minimum wages was associated with a relative increase in the number of leprosy cases (7.37%, 7.10% and 2.44%, respectively). Regarding the ethnicity variables, the increase in the proportion of men (black) and women (mixed race) with no schooling was associated with a relative increase in the number of cases of the disease (10.77% and 4.02%, respectively). Finally, for people of mixed race or ethnicity, the increase in the proportion of households with 1/2 to 1 minimum wage was related to a relative decrease in the total number of cases (-4.90%). CONCLUSION: The results show that the determinants associated with the increase in leprosy cases are similar to those in Brazilian hyperendemic regions, and that even in cities with low endemicity, social inequality is one of the main determinants of the disease.

Inequality of gender, age and disabilities due to leprosy and trends in a hyperendemic metropolis: Evidence from an eleven-year time series study in Central-West Brazil.

The present study aimed to investigate the epidemiological situation of leprosy (Hansen's Disease), in a hyperendemic metropolis in the Central-West region of Brazil. We studied trends over eleven years, both in the detection of the disease and in disabilities, analyzing disparities and/or differences regarding gender and age. This is an ecological time series study conducted in Cuiabá, capital of the state of Mato Grosso. The population consisted of patients diagnosed with leprosy between the years 2008 and 2018. The time series of leprosy cases was used, stratifying it according to gender (male and female), disability grade (G0D, G1D, G2D, and not evaluated) and age. The calendar adjustment technique was applied. For modeling the trends, the Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) was used. We identified 9.739 diagnosed cases, in which 58.37% were male and 87.55% aged between 15 and 59 years. Regarding detection according to gender, there was a decrease among women and an increase in men. The study shows an increasing trend in disabilities in both genders, which may be related to the delay in diagnosis. There was also an increasing number of cases that were not assessed for disability at the time of diagnosis, which denotes the quality of the services.