Deep mutational scanning of hepatitis B virus reveals a mechanism for cis-preferential reverse transcription.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a small double-stranded DNA virus that chronically infects 296 million people. Over half of its compact genome encodes proteins in two overlapping reading frames, and during evolution, multiple selective pressures can act on shared nucleotides. This study combines an RNA-based HBV cell culture system with deep mutational scanning (DMS) to uncouple cis- and trans-acting sequence requirements in the HBV genome. The results support a leaky ribosome scanning model for polymerase translation, provide a fitness map of the HBV polymerase at single-nucleotide resolution, and identify conserved prolines adjacent to the HBV polymerase termination codon that stall ribosomes. Further experiments indicated that stalled ribosomes tether the nascent polymerase to its template RNA, ensuring cis-preferential RNA packaging and reverse transcription of the HBV genome.

Learning from prepandemic data to forecast viral escape.

Effective pandemic preparedness relies on anticipating viral mutations that are able to evade host immune responses to facilitate vaccine and therapeutic design. However, current strategies for viral evolution prediction are not available early in a pandemic-experimental approaches require host polyclonal antibodies to test against1-16, and existing computational methods draw heavily from current strain prevalence to make reliable predictions of variants of concern17-19. To address this, we developed EVEscape, a generalizable modular framework that combines fitness predictions from a deep learning model of historical sequences with biophysical and structural information. EVEscape quantifies the viral escape potential of mutations at scale and has the advantage of being applicable before surveillance sequencing, experimental scans or three-dimensional structures of antibody complexes are available. We demonstrate that EVEscape, trained on sequences available before 2020, is as accurate as high-throughput experimental scans at anticipating pandemic variation for SARS-CoV-2 and is generalizable to other viruses including influenza, HIV and understudied viruses with pandemic potential such as Lassa and Nipah. We provide continually revised escape scores for all current strains of SARS-CoV-2 and predict probable further mutations to forecast emerging strains as a tool for continuing vaccine development ( evescape.org ).

Evolution of Amino Acid Propensities under Stability-Mediated Epistasis.

Site-specific amino acid preferences are influenced by the genetic background of the protein. The preferences for resident amino acids are expected to, on average, increase over time because of replacements at other sites-a nonadaptive phenomenon referred to as the "evolutionary Stokes shift." Alternatively, decreases in resident amino acid propensity have recently been viewed as evidence of adaptations to external environmental changes. Using population genetics theory and thermodynamic stability constraints, we show that nonadaptive evolution can lead to both positive and negative shifts in propensities following the fixation of an amino acid, emphasizing that the detection of negative shifts is not conclusive evidence of adaptation. By examining propensity shifts from when an amino acid is first accepted at a site until it is subsequently replaced, we find that ≈50% of sites show a decrease in the propensity for the newly resident amino acid while the remaining sites show an increase. Furthermore, the distributions of the magnitudes of positive and negative shifts were comparable. Preferences were often conserved via a significant negative autocorrelation in propensity changes-increases in propensities often followed by decreases, and vice versa. Lastly, we explore the underlying mechanisms that lead propensities to fluctuate. We observe that stabilizing replacements increase the mutational tolerance at a site and in doing so decrease the propensity for the resident amino acid. In contrast, destabilizing substitutions result in more rugged fitness landscapes that tend to favor the resident amino acid. In summary, our results characterize propensity trajectories under nonadaptive stability-constrained evolution against which evidence of adaptations should be calibrated.

Consequences of Stability-Induced Epistasis for Substitution Rates.

Do interactions between residues in a protein (i.e., epistasis) significantly alter evolutionary dynamics? If so, what consequences might they have on inference from traditional codon substitution models which assume site-independence for the sake of computational tractability? To investigate the effects of epistasis on substitution rates, we employed a mechanistic mutation-selection model in conjunction with a fitness framework derived from protein stability. We refer to this as the stability-informed site-dependent (S-SD) model and developed a new stability-informed site-independent (S-SI) model that captures the average effect of stability constraints on individual sites of a protein. Comparison of S-SI and S-SD offers a novel and direct method for investigating the consequences of stability-induced epistasis on protein evolution. We developed S-SI and S-SD models for three natural proteins and showed that they generate sequences consistent with real alignments. Our analyses revealed that epistasis tends to increase substitution rates compared with the rates under site-independent evolution. We then assessed the epistatic sensitivity of individual site and discovered a counterintuitive effect: Highly connected sites were less influenced by epistasis relative to exposed sites. Lastly, we show that, despite the unrealistic assumptions, traditional models perform comparably well in the presence and absence of epistasis and provide reasonable summaries of average selection intensities. We conclude that epistatic models are critical to understanding protein evolutionary dynamics, but epistasis might not be required for reasonable inference of selection pressure when averaging over time and sites.

A Phenotype-Genotype Codon Model for Detecting Adaptive Evolution.

A central objective in biology is to link adaptive evolution in a gene to structural and/or functional phenotypic novelties. Yet most analytic methods make inferences mainly from either phenotypic data or genetic data alone. A small number of models have been developed to infer correlations between the rate of molecular evolution and changes in a discrete or continuous life history trait. But such correlations are not necessarily evidence of adaptation. Here, we present a novel approach called the phenotype-genotype branch-site model (PG-BSM) designed to detect evidence of adaptive codon evolution associated with discrete-state phenotype evolution. An episode of adaptation is inferred under standard codon substitution models when there is evidence of positive selection in the form of an elevation in the nonsynonymous-to-synonymous rate ratio $\omega$ to a value $\omega > 1$. As it is becoming increasingly clear that $\omega > 1$ can occur without adaptation, the PG-BSM was formulated to infer an instance of adaptive evolution without appealing to evidence of positive selection. The null model makes use of a covarion-like component to account for general heterotachy (i.e., random changes in the evolutionary rate at a site over time). The alternative model employs samples of the phenotypic evolutionary history to test for phenomenological patterns of heterotachy consistent with specific mechanisms of molecular adaptation. These include 1) a persistent increase/decrease in $\omega$ at a site following a change in phenotype (the pattern) consistent with an increase/decrease in the functional importance of the site (the mechanism); and 2) a transient increase in $\omega$ at a site along a branch over which the phenotype changed (the pattern) consistent with a change in the site's optimal amino acid (the mechanism). Rejection of the null is followed by post hoc analyses to identify sites with strongest evidence for adaptation in association with changes in the phenotype as well as the most likely evolutionary history of the phenotype. Simulation studies based on a novel method for generating mechanistically realistic signatures of molecular adaptation show that the PG-BSM has good statistical properties. Analyses of real alignments show that site patterns identified post hoc are consistent with the specific mechanisms of adaptation included in the alternate model. Further simulation studies show that the covarion-like component of the PG-BSM plays a crucial role in mitigating recently discovered statistical pathologies associated with confounding by accounting for heterotachy-by-any-cause. [Adaptive evolution; branch-site model; confounding; mutation-selection; phenotype-genotype.].

Phenomenological Load on Model Parameters Can Lead to False Biological Conclusions.

When a substitution model is fitted to an alignment using maximum likelihood, its parameters are adjusted to account for as much site-pattern variation as possible. A parameter might therefore absorb a substantial quantity of the total variance in an alignment (or more formally, bring about a substantial reduction in the deviance of the fitted model) even if the process it represents played no role in the generation of the data. When this occurs, we say that the parameter estimate carries phenomenological load (PL). Large PL in a parameter estimate is a concern because it not only invalidates its mechanistic interpretation (if it has one) but also increases the likelihood that it will be found to be statistically significant. The problem of PL was not identified in the past because most off-the-shelf substitution models make simplifying assumptions that preclude the generation of realistic levels of variation. In this study, we use the more realistic mutation-selection framework as the basis of a generating model formulated to produce data that mimic an alignment of mammalian mitochondrial DNA. We show that a parameter estimate can carry PL when 1) the substitution model is underspecified and 2) the parameter represents a process that is confounded with other processes represented in the data-generating model. We then provide a method that can be used to identify signal for the process that a given parameter represents despite the existence of PL.

Shifting Balance on a Static Mutation-Selection Landscape: A Novel Scenario of Positive Selection.

A version of the mechanistic mutation-selection (MutSel) model that accounts for temporal dynamics at a site is presented. This is used to show that the rate ratio dN/dS at a site can be transiently >1 even when fitness coefficients are fixed or the fitness landscape is static. This occurs whenever a site drifts away from its fitness peak and is then forced back by selection, a process reminiscent of shifting balance. Shifting balance is strongest when the substitution process is not dominated by selection or drift, but admits interplay between the two. Under this condition, site-specific changes in dN/dS were inferred in 78-100% of trials, and positive selection (i.e., dN/dS>1) in 10-40% of trials, when sequence alignments generated under MutSel were fitted to two popular phenomenological branch-site models. These results demonstrate that positive selection can occur without a change in fitness regime, and that this is detectable by branch-site models. In addition, MutSel is used to show that a site can be occupied by a sub-optimal amino acid for long periods on a fixed landscape when selection is stringent. This has implications for the interpretation of constant-but-different site patterns typically attributed to changes in fitness. Furthermore, a version of MutSel with episodic changes in fitness coefficients is used to illustrate systematic differences between parameters used to generate data under MutSel and their counterparts estimated by a simple codon model. Motivated by a discrepancy in the literature, interpretation of dN/dS in the context of MutSel is also discussed.

Shifts in amino acid preferences as proteins evolve: A synthesis of experimental and theoretical work.

Amino acid preferences vary across sites and time. While variation across sites is widely accepted, the extent and frequency of temporal shifts are contentious. Our understanding of the drivers of amino acid preference change is incomplete: To what extent are temporal shifts driven by adaptive versus nonadaptive evolutionary processes? We review phenomena that cause preferences to vary (e.g., evolutionary Stokes shift, contingency, and entrenchment) and clarify how they differ. To determine the extent and prevalence of shifted preferences, we review experimental and theoretical studies. Analyses of natural sequence alignments often detect decreases in homoplasy (convergence and reversions) rates, and variation in replacement rates with time-signals that are consistent with temporally changing preferences. While approaches inferring shifts in preferences from patterns in natural alignments are valuable, they are indirect since multiple mechanisms (both adaptive and nonadaptive) could lead to the observed signal. Alternatively, site-directed mutagenesis experiments allow for a more direct assessment of shifted preferences. They corroborate evidence from multiple sequence alignments, revealing that the preference for an amino acid at a site varies depending on the background sequence. However, shifts in preferences are usually minor in magnitude and sites with significantly shifted preferences are low in frequency. The small yet consistent perturbations in preferences could, nevertheless, jeopardize the accuracy of inference procedures, which assume constant preferences. We conclude by discussing if and how such shifts in preferences might influence widely used time-homogenous inference procedures and potential ways to mitigate such effects.

Expanding the Search for Sperm Transmission Elements in the Mitochondrial Genomes of Bivalve Mollusks.

Doubly uniparental inheritance (DUI) of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) in bivalve mollusks is one of the most notable departures from the paradigm of strict maternal inheritance of mtDNA among metazoans. Recently, work on the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis suggested that a nucleotide motif in the control region of this species, known as the sperm transmission element (STE), helps protect male-transmitted mitochondria from destruction during spermatogenesis. Subsequent studies found similar, yet divergent, STE motifs in other marine mussels. Here, we extend the in silico search for mtDNA signatures resembling known STEs. This search is carried out for the large unassigned regions of 157 complete mitochondrial genomes from within the Mytiloida, Veneroida, Unionoida, and Ostreoida bivalve orders. Based on a sliding window approach, we present evidence that there are additional putative STE signatures in the large unassigned regions of several marine clams and freshwater mussels with DUI. We discuss the implications of this finding for interpreting the origin of doubly uniparental inheritance in ancestral bivalve mollusks, as well as potential future in vitro and in silico studies that could further refine our understanding of the early evolution of this unusual system of mtDNA inheritance.

Introduction to Genome Biology and Diversity.

Organisms display astonishing levels of cell and molecular diversity, including genome size, shape, and architecture. In this chapter, we review how the genome can be viewed as both a structural and an informational unit of biological diversity and explicitly define our intended meaning of genetic information. A brief overview of the characteristic features of bacterial, archaeal, and eukaryotic cell types and viruses sets the stage for a review of the differences in organization, size, and packaging strategies of their genomes. We include a detailed review of genetic elements found outside the primary chromosomal structures, as these provide insights into how genomes are sometimes viewed as incomplete informational entities. Lastly, we reassess the definition of the genome in light of recent advancements in our understanding of the diversity of genomic structures and the mechanisms by which genetic information is expressed within the cell. Collectively, these topics comprise a good introduction to genome biology for the newcomer to the field and provide a valuable reference for those developing new statistical or computation methods in genomics. This review also prepares the reader for anticipated transformations in thinking as the field of genome biology progresses.