Unified semicompeting risks analysis of hepatitis natural history through mediation modeling.

Natural history of hepatitis B or C is comprised of multiple milestones such as liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. To fully characterize its natural course, semicompeting risks represent a common problem where liver cirrhosis and liver cancer are both of interest, but only the former may be censored by the latter. Copula, frailty and multistate models serve as well-established analytics for semicompeting risks. Here, we cast the semicompeting risks in a mediation framework, with liver cirrhosis as a mediator and liver cancer as an outcome. We define the indirect and direct effects as the effects of an exposure on the liver cancer incidence mediated and not mediated through liver cirrhosis, respectively. With the estimands derived as conditional probabilities, we derive respective expressions under the copula, frailty, and multistate models. Next, we propose estimators based on nonparametric maximum likelihood or U-statistics and establish their asymptotic results. Numerical studies demonstrate that the efficiency of copula models leads to potential bias due to model misspecification. Moreover, the robustness of frailty models is accompanied by a loss in efficiency, and multistate models balance the efficiency and robustness. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed methods by a hepatitis study, showing that hepatitis B and C lead to a higher incidence of liver cancer by increasing liver cirrhosis incidence. Thus, mediation modeling provides a unified framework that accommodates various semicompeting risks models.

Mediation and instrumental variable analyses for vaccine-induced antibody titer against influenza B.

OBJECTIVE: Immune correlate analyses for vaccine trials have been applied to investigate associations of vaccine efficacy and surrogate markers such as vaccine-induced antibodies. However, the role of antibody as a surrogate marker in predicting the outcome can vary by time, and surrogate-outcome confounding may have resulted in bias even in randomized trials. We provide a framework for surrogate marker assessment to address the aforementioned issues. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We reanalyzed the vaccine randomized trial for influenza B. We conducted a mediation analysis that enables estimation of vaccine efficacy, mediation effects and proportion of mediation on disease probabilities at various follow-up times. We proposed instrumental variable (IV) analyses with randomized vaccination as an IV accounting for potential unmeasured confounding. RESULTS: The mediation effect of vaccine efficacy by hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titer was significantly protective at 181 days after vaccination: 63.2% [95% confidence interval, (CI) = (39.9%, 82.0%)], and HAI titer explained 61.1% [95% CI = (36.7%, 96.2%)] of the protective effect of vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Most of vaccine efficacy is mediated by HAI titer, particularly in children 10 years and older. Our contribution is to provide causal analytics for the role of surrogate marker with weaker assumptions regarding surrogate-disease causation.

Assessment of fenofibrate-methylation interactions on triglycerides using longitudinal family data.

BACKGROUND: Triglyceride (TG) concentrations decrease in response to fenofibrate treatment, and also are associated with DNA methylation. But how interactions between fenofibrate response and DNA methylation affect TGs remains unclear. METHODS: In the present study, we identified and compared differential methylation sites associated with TG concentrations in individuals before and after fenofibrate treatment. We then estimated interactions between fenofibrate treatment and methylation to identify differential methylation effects associated with fenofibrate treatment on TG concentrations using the entire longitudinal family sample. To account for within-family and within-individual corrections, the generalized estimating equations approach was used to estimate main and interaction effects between methylation sites and fenofibrate treatment, adjusting for potential confounders. Analyses were also performed with and without adjusting for high-density lipoprotein (HDL) concentrations. RESULTS: Prior to fenofibrate treatment, 23 cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) sites were significantly associated with TG concentrations, while only 13 CpG sites were identified posttreatment, adjusting for HDL. Without adjusting for HDL, pretreatment, 20 CpG sites were significantly associated with TG concentrations, while only 12 CpG sites were identified posttreatment. Among these sites, only one differential site (cg19003390 in the CPT1A gene) overlapped from pre- and posttreatment measurements regardless of HDL adjustment. Furthermore, 11 methylation sites showed substantial interaction effects (p < 1.43 × 10-7with Bonferroni correction) with or without HDL adjustment when using the whole longitudinal data. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses suggest that DNA methylation likely modified the effect of fenofibrate on TG concentrations. Differential fenofibrate-associated methylation sites on TGs differed with and without adjusting for HDL concentrations, suggesting that these HDLs and TGs might share some common epigenetic processes.

The Role of Consolidation Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Receiving Chemotherapy: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PURPOSE: The role of consolidation chemoradiation (CCRT) after systemic chemotherapy in locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) is still controversial. We aim to evaluate the effectiveness of CCRT in LAPC using systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prospective clinical trials of LAPC receiving chemotherapy with or without subsequent CCRT were included in the analysis. We systematically searched in PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science. The primary outcome of interest was 1-year survival. Secondary endpoints were median overall survival, progression-free survival, toxicity, and resection rate. RESULTS: Forty-one studies with 49 study arms were included with a total of 1,018 patients receiving CCRT after induction chemotherapy (ICT) and 954 patients receiving chemotherapy alone. CCRT after ICT did not improve 1-year survival significantly in LAPC patients compared with chemotherapy alone (58% vs. 52%). ICT lasted for at least 3 months revealed significantly improved survival of additional CCRT to LAPC patients compared to chemotherapy alone (65% vs. 52%). A marginal survival benefit of consolidation CCRT was noted in studies using maintenance chemotherapy (59% vs. 52%), and fluorouracil-based CCRT (64% vs. 52%), as well as in studies conducted after the 2010 (64% vs. 55%). CONCLUSION: The survival benefit of ICT+CCRT over chemotherapy alone in treating LAPC was noted when ICT lasted for at least 3 months. Fluorouracil-based CCRT, and maintenance chemotherapy were associated with improved clinical outcomes.