Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction for Symptom Management in Older Individuals with HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Disorder.

The growing number of people aging with HIV represents a group vulnerable to the symptom burdens of HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder (HAND). Among younger groups, Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction (MBSR) has been shown to help people living with HIV manage HIV-related and other life stress, and although there is some theoretical and empirical evidence that it may be effective among those with cognitive deficits, the approach has not been studied in older populations with HAND. Participants (n = 180) 55 years or older with HIV and cognitive impairment were randomly assigned to either an 8-week MBSR arm or a waitlist control. We assessed the impact of MBSR compared to a waitlist control on psychological outcomes [stress, anxiety, depression, and quality of life (QOL)] and cognitive metrics (e.g., speed of information processing, working memory, attention, impulsivity) measured at baseline, immediately post intervention (8 weeks) and one month later (16 weeks). Intent to treat analyses showed significant improvement in the MBSR group compared to control on symptoms of depression from baseline to 8 weeks, however, the difference was not sustained at 16 weeks. The MBSR group also showed improvement in perceived QOL from baseline to 16 weeks compared to the waitlist control group. Cognitive performance did not differ between the two treatment arms. MBSR shows promise as a tool to help alleviate the symptom burden of depression and low QOL in older individuals living with HAND and future work should address methods to better sustain the beneficial impact on depression and QOL.

Estimating contact network properties by integrating multiple data sources associated with infectious diseases.

To effectively mitigate the spread of communicable diseases, it is necessary to understand the interactions that enable disease transmission among individuals in a population; we refer to the set of these interactions as a contact network. The structure of the contact network can have profound effects on both the spread of infectious diseases and the effectiveness of control programs. Therefore, understanding the contact network permits more efficient use of resources. Measuring the structure of the network, however, is a challenging problem. We present a Bayesian approach to integrate multiple data sources associated with the transmission of infectious diseases to more precisely and accurately estimate important properties of the contact network. An important aspect of the approach is the use of the congruence class models for networks. We conduct simulation studies modeling pathogens resembling SARS-CoV-2 and HIV to assess the method; subsequently, we apply our approach to HIV data from the University of California San Diego Primary Infection Resource Consortium. Based on simulation studies, we demonstrate that the integration of epidemiological and viral genetic data with risk behavior survey data can lead to large decreases in mean squared error (MSE) in contact network estimates compared to estimates based strictly on risk behavior information. This decrease in MSE is present even in settings where the risk behavior surveys contain measurement error. Through these simulations, we also highlight certain settings where the approach does not improve MSE.

Primary Neural Degeneration in Noise-Exposed Human Cochleas: Correlations with Outer Hair Cell Loss and Word-Discrimination Scores.

Animal studies suggest that cochlear nerve degeneration precedes sensory cell degeneration in both noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) and age-related hearing loss (ARHL), producing a hearing impairment that is not reflected in audiometric thresholds. Here, we investigated the histopathology of human ARHL and NIHL by comparing loss of auditory nerve fibers (ANFs), cochlear hair cells and the stria vascularis in a group of 52 cases with noise-exposure history against an age-matched control group. Although strial atrophy increased with age, there was no effect of noise history. Outer hair cell (OHC) loss also increased with age throughout the cochlea but was unaffected by noise history in the low-frequency region (<2 kHz), while greatly exacerbated at high frequencies (≥2 kHz). Inner hair cell (IHC) loss was primarily seen at high frequencies but was unaffected by noise at either low or high frequencies. ANF loss was substantial at all cochlear frequencies and was exacerbated by noise throughout. According to a multivariable regression model, this loss of neural channels contributes to poor word discrimination among those with similar audiometric threshold losses. The histopathological patterns observed also suggest that, whereas the low-frequency OHC loss may be an unavoidable consequence of aging, the high-frequency loss, which produces the classic down-sloping audiogram of ARHL, may be partially because of avoidable ear abuse, even among those without a documented history of acoustic overexposure.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT As regenerative therapeutics in sensorineural hearing loss enter clinical trials, it becomes critical to infer which cochlear pathologies are present in addition to hair cell loss. Here, by analyzing human autopsy material, we show that acoustic injury accelerates age-related primary neural degeneration, but not strial degeneration, neither of which can be inferred from audiometric thresholds. It exacerbates outer hair cell (OHC) loss only in the high-frequency half of the cochlea, suggesting that the apical loss is age-related, whereas the basal loss is partially noise induced, and therefore avoidable. Statistical analysis suggests that neural loss helps explain differences in word-recognition ability among individuals with similar audiometric thresholds. The surprising correlation between neural loss and OHC loss in the cochlea's speech region also implicates neural loss in the well-known decline in word scores as thresholds deteriorate with age.

Coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination is protective of clinical disease in solid organ transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND: Clinical effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) is not well documented despite multiple studies demonstrating sub-optimal immunogenicity. METHODS: We reviewed medical records of eligible SOTRs at a single center to assess vaccination status and identify cases of symptomatic COVID-19 from January 1 to August 12, 2021. We developed a Cox proportional hazards model using the date of vaccination and time since transplantation as a time-varying covariate with age and gender as potential time-invariant confounders. Survival curves were created using the parameters estimated from the Cox model. RESULTS: Among 1904 SOTRs, 1362 were fully vaccinated (96% received mRNA vaccines) and 542 were either unvaccinated (n = 470) or partially vaccinated (n = 72). There were 115 cases of COVID-19, of which 12 occurred in fully vaccinated individuals. Cox regression with the date of vaccination and time since transplantation as the time-varying co-variates showed that after baseline adjustment for age and sex, being fully vaccinated had a significantly lower hazard for COVID-19, hazard ratio (HR) = 0.29 and 95% confidence interval ([CI] 0.09, 0.91). CONCLUSION: We found that 2-dose mRNA COVID-19 vaccination was protective of symptomatic COVID-19 in vaccinated versus unvaccinated SOTRs. TWEET: COVID-19 vaccination was associated with a significantly lower hazard for symptomatic COVID-19 (HR 0.29; 95% CI 0.09, 0.91) among 1904 SOT recipients at a single center from January 1 to August 12, 2021.

Age-Related Hearing Loss Is Dominated by Damage to Inner Ear Sensory Cells, Not the Cellular Battery That Powers Them.

Age-related hearing loss arises from irreversible damage in the inner ear, where sound is transduced into electrical signals. Prior human studies suggested that sensory-cell loss is rarely the cause; correspondingly, animal work has implicated the stria vascularis, the cellular "battery" driving the amplification of sound by hair cell "motors." Here, quantitative microscopic analysis of hair cells, auditory nerve fibers, and strial tissues in 120 human inner ears obtained at autopsy, most of whom had recent audiograms in their medical records, shows that the degree of hearing loss is well predicted from the amount of hair cell loss and that inclusion of strial damage does not improve the prediction. Although many aging ears showed significant strial degeneration throughout the cochlea, our statistical models suggest that, by the time strial tissues are lost, hair cell death is so extensive that the loss of battery is no longer important to pure-tone thresholds and that audiogram slope is not diagnostic for strial degeneration. These data comprise the first quantitative survey of hair cell death in normal-aging human cochleas, and reveal unexpectedly severe hair cell loss in low-frequency cochlear regions, and dramatically greater loss in high-frequency regions than seen in any aging animal model. Comparison of normal-aging ears to an age-matched group with acoustic-overexposure history suggests that a lifetime of acoustic overexposure is to blame.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT This report upends dogma about the causes of age-related hearing loss. Our analysis of over 120 autopsy specimens shows that inner-ear sensory cell loss can largely explain the audiometric patterns in aging, with minimal contribution from the stria vascularis, the "battery" that powers the inner ear, previously viewed as the major locus of age-related hearing dysfunction. Predicting inner ear damage from the audiogram is critical, now that clinical trials of therapeutics designed to regrow hair cells are underway. Our data also show that hair cell degeneration in aging humans is dramatically worse than that in aging animals, suggesting that the high-frequency hearing losses that define human presbycusis reflect avoidable contributions of chronic ear abuse to which aging animals are not exposed.

Evaluation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission Mitigation Strategies on a University Campus Using an Agent-Based Network Model.

Universities are faced with decisions on how to resume campus activities while mitigating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) risk. To provide guidance for these decisions, we developed an agent-based network model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to assess the potential impact of strategies to reduce outbreaks. The model incorporates important features related to risk at the University of California San Diego. We found that structural interventions for housing (singles only) and instructional changes (from in-person to hybrid with class size caps) can substantially reduce the basic reproduction number, but masking and social distancing are required to reduce this to at or below 1. Within a risk mitigation scenario, increased frequency of asymptomatic testing from monthly to twice weekly has minimal impact on average outbreak size (1.1-1.9), but substantially reduces the maximum outbreak size and cumulative number of cases. We conclude that an interdependent approach incorporating risk mitigation, viral detection, and public health intervention is required to mitigate risk.

Envelope following responses predict speech-in-noise performance in normal-hearing listeners.

Permanent threshold elevation after noise exposure or aging is caused by loss of sensory cells; however, animal studies show that hair cell loss is often preceded by degeneration of the synapses between sensory cells and auditory nerve fibers. Silencing these neurons is likely to degrade auditory processing and may contribute to difficulties understanding speech in noisy backgrounds. Reduction of suprathreshold ABR amplitudes can be used to quantify synaptopathy in inbred mice. However, ABR amplitudes are highly variable in humans, and thus more challenging to use. Since noise-induced neuropathy preferentially targets fibers with high thresholds and low spontaneous rate and because phase locking to temporal envelopes is particularly strong in these fibers, measuring envelope following responses (EFRs) might be a more robust measure of cochlear synaptopathy. A recent auditory model further suggests that modulation of carrier tones with rectangular envelopes should be less sensitive to cochlear amplifier dysfunction and, therefore, a better metric of cochlear neural damage than sinusoidal amplitude modulation. In this study, we measure performance scores on a variety of difficult word-recognition tasks among listeners with normal audiograms and assess correlations with EFR magnitudes to rectangular versus sinusoidal modulation. Higher harmonics of EFR magnitudes evoked by a rectangular-envelope stimulus were significantly correlated with word scores, whereas those evoked by sinusoidally modulated tones did not. These results support previous reports that individual differences in synaptopathy may be a source of speech recognition variability despite the presence of normal thresholds at standard audiometric frequencies.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Recent studies suggest that millions of people may be at risk of permanent impairment from cochlear synaptopathy, the age-related and noise-induced degeneration of neural connections in the inner ear. This study examines electrophysiological responses to stimuli designed to improve detection of neural damage in subjects with normal hearing sensitivity. The resultant correlations with word recognition performance are consistent with a contribution of cochlear neural damage to deficits in hearing in noise abilities.

Investigation of patient-sharing networks using a Bayesian network model selection approach for congruence class models.

A Bayesian approach to conduct network model selection is presented for a general class of network models referred to as the congruence class models (CCMs). CCMs form a broad class that includes as special cases several common network models, such as the Erdos-Rényi-Gilbert model, stochastic block model, and many exponential random graph models. Due to the range of models that can be specified as CCMs, our proposed method is better able to select models consistent with generative mechanisms associated with observed networks than are current approaches. In addition, our approach allows for incorporation of prior information. We illustrate the use of this approach to select among several different proposed mechanisms for the structure of patient-sharing networks; such networks have been found to be associated with the cost and quality of medical care. We found evidence in support of heterogeneity in sociality but not selective mixing by provider type or degree.

The Relationship Between the Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 Transmission Network and the HIV Care Continuum in Los Angeles County.

BACKGROUND: Public health action combating human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) includes facilitating navigation through the HIV continuum of care: timely diagnosis followed by linkage to care and initiation of antiretroviral therapy to suppress viral replication. Molecular epidemiology can identify rapidly growing HIV genetic transmission clusters. How progression through the care continuum relates to transmission clusters has not been previously characterized. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study on HIV surveillance data from 5226 adult cases in Los Angeles County diagnosed from 2010 through 2014. Genetic transmission clusters were constructed using HIV-TRACE. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the impact of transmission cluster growth on the time intervals between care continuum events. Gamma frailty models incorporated the effect of heterogeneity associated with genetic transmission clusters. RESULTS: In contrast to our expectations, there were no differences in time to the care continuum events among individuals in clusters with different growth dynamics. However, upon achieving viral suppression, individuals in high growth clusters were slower to experience viral rebound (hazard ratio 0.83, P = .011) compared with individuals in low growth clusters. Heterogeneity associated with cluster membership in the timing to each event in the care continuum was highly significant (P < .001), with and without adjustment for transmission risk and demographics. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals within the same transmission cluster have more similar trajectories through the HIV care continuum than those across transmission clusters. These findings suggest molecular epidemiology can assist public health officials in identifying clusters of individuals who may benefit from assistance in navigating the HIV care continuum.

Electrophysiological markers of cochlear function correlate with hearing-in-noise performance among audiometrically normal subjects.

Hearing loss caused by noise exposure, ototoxic drugs, or aging results from the loss of sensory cells, as reflected in audiometric threshold elevation. Animal studies show that loss of hair cells can be preceded by loss of auditory-nerve peripheral synapses, which likely degrades auditory processing. While this condition, known as cochlear synaptopathy, can be diagnosed in mice by a reduction of suprathreshold cochlear neural responses, its diagnosis in humans remains challenging. To look for evidence of cochlear nerve damage in normal hearing subjects, we measured their word recognition performance in difficult listening environments and compared it to cochlear function as assessed by otoacoustic emissions and click-evoked electrocochleography. Several electrocochleographic markers were correlated with word scores, whereas distortion product otoacoustic emissions were not. Specifically, the summating potential (SP) was larger and the cochlear nerve action potential (AP) was smaller in those with the worst word scores. Adding a forward masker or increasing stimulus rate reduced SP in the worst performers, suggesting that this potential includes postsynaptic components as well as hair cell receptor potentials. Results suggests that some of the variance in word scores among listeners with normal audiometric threshold arises from cochlear neural damage.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Recent animal studies suggest that millions of people may be at risk of permanent impairment from cochlear synaptopathy, the age-related and noise-induced degeneration of neural connections in the inner ear that "hides" behind a normal audiogram. This study examines electrophysiological responses to clicks in a large cohort of subjects with normal hearing sensitivity. The resultant correlations with word recognition performance are consistent with an important contribution cochlear neural damage to deficits in hearing in noise abilities.

Novel methods for the analysis of stepped wedge cluster randomized trials.

Stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs) have become increasingly popular and are used for a variety of interventions and outcomes, often chosen for their feasibility advantages. SW-CRTs must account for time trends in the outcome because of the staggered rollout of the intervention. Robust inference procedures and nonparametric analysis methods have recently been proposed to handle such trends without requiring strong parametric modeling assumptions, but these are less powerful than model-based approaches. We propose several novel analysis methods that reduce reliance on modeling assumptions while preserving some of the increased power provided by the use of mixed effects models. In one method, we use the synthetic control approach to find the best matching clusters for a given intervention cluster. Another method makes use of within-cluster crossover information to construct an overall estimator. We also consider methods that combine these approaches to further improve power. We test these methods on simulated SW-CRTs, describing scenarios in which these methods have increased power compared with existing nonparametric methods while preserving nominal validity when mixed effects models are misspecified. We also demonstrate theoretical properties of these estimators with less restrictive assumptions than mixed effects models. Finally, we propose avenues for future research on the use of these methods; motivation for such research arises from their flexibility, which allows the identification of specific causal contrasts of interest, their robustness, and the potential for incorporating covariates to further increase power. Investigators conducting SW-CRTs might well consider such methods when common modeling assumptions may not hold.

Middle Ear Muscle Reflex and Word Recognition in "Normal-Hearing" Adults: Evidence for Cochlear Synaptopathy?

OBJECTIVES: Permanent threshold elevation after noise exposure, ototoxic drugs, or aging is caused by loss of sensory cells; however, animal studies show that hair cell loss is often preceded by degeneration of synapses between sensory cells and auditory nerve fibers. The silencing of these neurons, especially those with high thresholds and low spontaneous rates, degrades auditory processing and may contribute to difficulties in understanding speech in noise. Although cochlear synaptopathy can be diagnosed in animals by measuring suprathreshold auditory brainstem responses, its diagnosis in humans remains a challenge. In mice, cochlear synaptopathy is also correlated with measures of middle ear muscle (MEM) reflex strength, possibly because the missing high-threshold neurons are important drivers of this reflex. The authors hypothesized that measures of the MEM reflex might be better than other assays of peripheral function in predicting difficulties hearing in difficult listening environments in human subjects. DESIGN: The authors recruited 165 normal-hearing healthy subjects, between 18 and 63 years of age, with no history of ear or hearing problems, no history of neurologic disorders, and unremarkable otoscopic examinations. Word recognition in quiet and in difficult listening situations was measured in four ways: using isolated words from the Northwestern University auditory test number six corpus with either (a) 0 dB signal to noise, (b) 45% time compression with reverberation, or (c) 65% time compression with reverberation, and (d) with a modified version of the QuickSIN. Audiometric thresholds were assessed at standard and extended high frequencies. Outer hair cell function was assessed by distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs). Middle ear function and reflexes were assessed using three methods: the acoustic reflex threshold as measured clinically, wideband tympanometry as measured clinically, and a custom wideband method that uses a pair of click probes flanking an ipsilateral noise elicitor. Other aspects of peripheral auditory function were assessed by measuring click-evoked gross potentials, that is, summating potential (SP) and action potential (AP) from ear canal electrodes. RESULTS: After adjusting for age and sex, word recognition scores were uncorrelated with audiometric or DPOAE thresholds, at either standard or extended high frequencies. MEM reflex thresholds were significantly correlated with scores on isolated word recognition, but not with the modified version of the QuickSIN. The highest pairwise correlations were seen using the custom assay. AP measures were correlated with some of the word scores, but not as highly as seen for the MEM custom assay, and only if amplitude was measured from SP peak to AP peak, rather than baseline to AP peak. The highest pairwise correlations with word scores, on all four tests, were seen with the SP/AP ratio, followed closely by SP itself. When all predictor variables were combined in a stepwise multivariate regression, SP/AP dominated models for all four word score outcomes. MEM measures only enhanced the adjusted r values for the 45% time compression test. The only other predictors that enhanced model performance (and only for two outcome measures) were measures of interaural threshold asymmetry. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that, among normal-hearing subjects, there is a significant peripheral contribution to diminished hearing performance in difficult listening environments that is not captured by either threshold audiometry or DPOAEs. The significant univariate correlations between word scores and either SP/AP, SP, MEM reflex thresholds, or AP amplitudes (in that order) are consistent with a type of primary neural degeneration. However, interpretation is clouded by uncertainty as to the mix of pre- and postsynaptic contributions to the click-evoked SP. None of the assays presented here has the sensitivity to diagnose neural degeneration on a case-by-case basis; however, these tests may be useful in longitudinal studies to track accumulation of neural degeneration in individual subjects.

Antiretroviral Therapy and Mortality in Rural South Africa: A Comparison of Causal Modeling Approaches.

Estimation of causal effects from observational data is a primary goal of epidemiology. The use of multiple methods with different assumptions relating to exchangeability improves causal inference by demonstrating robustness across assumptions. We estimated the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on mortality in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, from 2007 to 2011, using 2 methods with substantially different assumptions: the regression discontinuity design (RDD) and inverse-probability-weighted (IPW) marginal structural models (MSMs). The RDD analysis took advantage of a CD4-cell-count-based threshold for ART initiation (200 cells/µL). The 2 methods yielded consistent but nonidentical results for the effect of immediate initiation of ART (RDD intention-to-treat hazard ratio (HR) = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.35, 1.26; RDD complier average causal effect HR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.41, 0.77; IPW MSM HR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.42, 0.58). Although RDD and IPW MSM estimates have distinct identifying assumptions, strengths, and limitations in terms of internal and external validity, results in this application were similar. The differences in modeling approaches and the external validity of each method may explain the minor differences in effect estimates. The overall consistency of the results lends support for causal inference about the effect of ART on mortality from these data.

Inference on network statistics by restricting to the network space: applications to sexual history data.

Analysis of sexual history data intended to describe sexual networks presents many challenges arising from the fact that most surveys collect information on only a very small fraction of the population of interest. In addition, partners are rarely identified and responses are subject to reporting biases. Typically, each network statistic of interest, such as mean number of sexual partners for men or women, is estimated independently of other network statistics. There is, however, a complex relationship among networks statistics; and knowledge of these relationships can aid in addressing concerns mentioned earlier. We develop a novel method that constrains a posterior predictive distribution of a collection of network statistics in order to leverage the relationships among network statistics in making inference about network properties of interest. The method ensures that inference on network properties is compatible with an actual network. Through extensive simulation studies, we also demonstrate that use of this method can improve estimates in settings where there is uncertainty that arises both from sampling and from systematic reporting bias compared with currently available approaches to estimation. To illustrate the method, we apply it to estimate network statistics using data from the Chicago Health and Social Life Survey. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The use of permutation tests for the analysis of parallel and stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trials.

We investigate the use of permutation tests for the analysis of parallel and stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trials. Permutation tests for parallel designs with exponential family endpoints have been extensively studied. The optimal permutation tests developed for exponential family alternatives require information on intraclass correlation, a quantity not yet defined for time-to-event endpoints. Therefore, it is unclear how efficient permutation tests can be constructed for cluster-randomized trials with such endpoints. We consider a class of test statistics formed by a weighted average of pair-specific treatment effect estimates and offer practical guidance on the choice of weights to improve efficiency. We apply the permutation tests to a cluster-randomized trial evaluating the effect of an intervention to reduce the incidence of hospital-acquired infection. In some settings, outcomes from different clusters may be correlated, and we evaluate the validity and efficiency of permutation test in such settings. Lastly, we propose a permutation test for stepped-wedge designs and compare its performance with mixed-effect modeling and illustrate its superiority when sample sizes are small, the underlying distribution is skewed, or there is correlation across clusters. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Leveraging contact network structure in the design of cluster randomized trials.

BACKGROUND: In settings like the Ebola epidemic, where proof-of-principle trials have provided evidence of efficacy but questions remain about the effectiveness of different possible modes of implementation, it may be useful to conduct trials that not only generate information about intervention effects but also themselves provide public health benefit. Cluster randomized trials are of particular value for infectious disease prevention research by virtue of their ability to capture both direct and indirect effects of intervention, the latter of which depends heavily on the nature of contact networks within and across clusters. By leveraging information about these networks-in particular the degree of connection across randomized units, which can be obtained at study baseline-we propose a novel class of connectivity-informed cluster trial designs that aim both to improve public health impact (speed of epidemic control) and to preserve the ability to detect intervention effects. METHODS: We several designs for cluster randomized trials with staggered enrollment, in each of which the order of enrollment is based on the total number of ties (contacts) from individuals within a cluster to individuals in other clusters. Our designs can accommodate connectivity based either on the total number of external connections at baseline or on connections only to areas yet to receive the intervention. We further consider a "holdback" version of the designs in which control clusters are held back from re-randomization for some time interval. We investigate the performance of these designs in terms of epidemic control outcomes (time to end of epidemic and cumulative incidence) and power to detect intervention effect, by simulating vaccination trials during an SEIR-type epidemic outbreak using a network-structured agent-based model. We compare results to those of a traditional Stepped Wedge trial. RESULTS: In our simulation studies, connectivity-informed designs lead to a 20% reduction in cumulative incidence compared to comparable traditional study designs, but have little impact on epidemic length. Power to detect intervention effect is reduced in all connectivity-informed designs, but "holdback" versions provide power that is very close to that of a traditional Stepped Wedge approach. CONCLUSION: Incorporating information about cluster connectivity in the design of cluster randomized trials can increase their public health impact, especially in acute outbreak settings. Using this information helps control outbreaks-by minimizing the number of cross-cluster infections-with very modest cost in terms of power to detect effectiveness.

Antiretroviral Therapy to Prevent HIV Acquisition in Serodiscordant Couples in a Hyperendemic Community in Rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) was highly efficacious in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in stable serodiscordant couples in the HPTN-052 study, a resource-intensive randomized controlled trial with near-perfect ART adherence and mutual HIV status disclosure among all participating couples. However, minimal evidence exists of the effectiveness of ART in preventing HIV acquisition in stable serodiscordant couples in "real-life" population-based settings in hyperendemic communities of sub-Saharan Africa, where health systems are typically resource-poor and overburdened, adherence to ART is often low, and partners commonly do not disclose their HIV status to each other. METHODS: Data arose from a population-based open cohort in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 17 016 HIV-uninfected individuals present between January 2005 and December 2013 were included. Interval-censored time-updated proportional hazards regression was used to assess how the ART status affected HIV transmission risk in stable serodiscordant relationships. RESULTS: We observed 1619 HIV seroconversions in 17 016 individuals, over 60 349 person-years follow-up time. During the follow-up period, 1846 individuals had an HIV-uninfected and 196 had an HIV-infected stable partner HIV incidence was 3.8/100 person-years (PY) among individuals with an HIV-infected partner (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-5.6), 1.4/100 PY (.4-3.5) among those with HIV-infected partners receiving ART, and 5.6/100 PY (3.5-8.4) among those with HIV-infected partners not receiving ART. Use of ART was associated with a 77% decrease in HIV acquisition risk among serodiscordant couples (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% CI, .07-.80). CONCLUSIONS: ART initiation was associated with a very large reduction in HIV acquisition in serodiscordant couples in rural KwaZulu-Natal. However, this "real-life" effect was substantially lower than the effect observed in the HPTN-052 trial. To eliminate HIV transmission in serodiscordant couples, additional prevention interventions are probably needed.

Linkage of viral sequences among HIV-infected village residents in Botswana: estimation of linkage rates in the presence of missing data.

Linkage analysis is useful in investigating disease transmission dynamics and the effect of interventions on them, but estimates of probabilities of linkage between infected people from observed data can be biased downward when missingness is informative. We investigate variation in the rates at which subjects' viral genotypes link across groups defined by viral load (low/high) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) status using blood samples from household surveys in the Northeast sector of Mochudi, Botswana. The probability of obtaining a sequence from a sample varies with viral load; samples with low viral load are harder to amplify. Pairwise genetic distances were estimated from aligned nucleotide sequences of HIV-1C env gp120. It is first shown that the probability that randomly selected sequences are linked can be estimated consistently from observed data. This is then used to develop estimates of the probability that a sequence from one group links to at least one sequence from another group under the assumption of independence across pairs. Furthermore, a resampling approach is developed that accounts for the presence of correlation across pairs, with diagnostics for assessing the reliability of the method. Sequences were obtained for 65% of subjects with high viral load (HVL, n = 117), 54% of subjects with low viral load but not on ART (LVL, n = 180), and 45% of subjects on ART (ART, n = 126). The probability of linkage between two individuals is highest if both have HVL, and lowest if one has LVL and the other has LVL or is on ART. Linkage across groups is high for HVL and lower for LVL and ART. Adjustment for missing data increases the group-wise linkage rates by 40-100%, and changes the relative rates between groups. Bias in inferences regarding HIV viral linkage that arise from differential ability to genotype samples can be reduced by appropriate methods for accommodating missing data.