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1.
BMC Med ; 22(1): 100, 2024 Mar 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38448944

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In 2021, whilst societies were emerging from major social restrictions during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the UK government instigated an Events Research Programme to examine the risk of COVID-19 transmission from attendance at cultural events and explore ways to enable people to attend a range of events whilst minimising risk of transmission. We aimed to measure any impact on risk of COVID-19 transmission from attendance at events held at or close to commercially viable capacity using routinely collected data. METHODS: Data were obtained on attendees at Phase 3 Events Research Programme events, for which some infection risk mitigation measures were in place (i.e. evidence of vaccination or a negative lateral flow test). Attendance data were linked with COVID-19 test result data from the UK Test and Trace system. Using a self-controlled case series design, we measured the within person incidence rate ratio for testing positive for COVID-19, comparing the rate in days 3 to 9 following event attendance (high risk period) with days 1 and 2 and 10-16 (baseline period). Rate ratios were adjusted for estimates of underlying regional COVID-19 prevalence to account for population level fluctuations in infection risk, and events were grouped into broadly similar types. RESULTS: From attendance data available for 188,851 attendees, 3357 people tested positive for COVID-19 during the observation period. After accounting for total testing trends over the period, incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals for positive tests were 1.16 (0.53-2.57) for indoor seated events, 1.12 (0.95-1.30) for mainly outdoor seated events, 0.65 (0.51-0.83) for mainly outdoor partially seated events, and 1.70 (1.52-1.89) for mainly outdoor unseated multi-day events. CONCLUSIONS: For the majority of event types studied in the third phase of the UK Events Research Programme, we found no evidence of an increased risk of COVID-19 transmission associated with event attendance. However, we found a 70% increased risk of infection associated with attendance at mainly outdoor unseated multi-day events. We have also demonstrated a novel use for self-controlled case series methodology in monitoring infection risk associated with event attendance.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemias , Pesquisa , Reino Unido/epidemiologia
2.
Clin Infect Dis ; 76(4): 573-581, 2023 02 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36200701

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, the first severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) protease inhibitor, reduces the risk of hospitalization and death by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but has been associated with symptomatic rebound after therapy completion. METHODS: Six individuals with relapse of COVID-19 symptoms after treatment with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, 2 individuals with rebound symptoms without prior antiviral therapy and 7 patients with acute Omicron infection (controls) were studied. Soluble biomarkers and serum SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein were measured. Nasal swabs positive for SARS-CoV-2 underwent viral isolation and targeted viral sequencing. SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike, anti-receptor-binding domain, and anti-nucleocapsid antibodies were measured. Surrogate viral neutralization tests against wild-type and Omicron spike protein, as well as T-cell stimulation assays, were performed. RESULTS: High levels of SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies were found in all participants. Anti-nucleocapsid IgG and Omicron-specific neutralizing antibodies increased in patients with rebound. Robust SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cell responses were observed, higher in rebound compared with early acute COVID-19 patients. Inflammatory markers mostly decreased during rebound. Two patients sampled longitudinally demonstrated an increase in activated cytokine-producing CD4+ T cells against viral proteins. No characteristic resistance mutations were identified. SARS-CoV-2 was isolated by culture from 1 of 8 rebound patients; Polybrene addition increased this to 5 of 8. CONCLUSIONS: Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment does not impede adaptive immune responses to SARS-CoV-2. Clinical rebound corresponds to development of a robust antibody and T-cell immune response, arguing against a high risk of disease progression. The presence of infectious virus supports the need for isolation and assessment of longer treatment courses. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04401436.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Ritonavir , Tratamento Farmacológico da COVID-19 , Antivirais , Imunoglobulina G , Anticorpos Antivirais
3.
Biometrics ; 79(4): 3818-3830, 2023 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36795803

RESUMO

Contact-tracing is one of the most effective tools in infectious disease outbreak control. A capture-recapture approach based upon ratio regression is suggested to estimate the completeness of case detection. Ratio regression has been recently developed as flexible tool for count data modeling and has proved to be successful in the capture-recapture setting. The methodology is applied here to Covid-19 contact tracing data from Thailand. A simple weighted straight line approach is used which includes the Poisson and geometric distribution as special cases. For the case study data of contact tracing for Thailand, a completeness of 83% could be found with a 95% confidence interval of 74%-93%.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Busca de Comunicante , Surtos de Doenças , Distribuições Estatísticas
4.
Eur J Oral Sci ; 131(1): e12906, 2023 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36412995

RESUMO

SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of the debilitating COVID-19, is mainly transmitted by first infecting nose and lung epithelial cells. The mouth is also believed to be a viral portal site since certain types of oral epithelial cells were shown to express ACE2 receptor. However, it is unclear whether oral epithelial cells are directly infected by SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we addressed whether epithelial cells of the oral gingiva were susceptible to infection. Interestingly, we found that KRT5+ and KRT18+ gingival epithelial cells do not express ACE2 but highly express TMPRSS2 and Furin as well as CD147, which was proposed to be an alternative receptor for SARS-CoV-2. However, using SARS-CoV-2 pseudoviruses containing the spike protein, we observed that gingival epithelial cells were not susceptible to infection due to the lack of ACE2 expression and the inability of CD147 to mediate viral entry. These results strongly suggest that epithelial cells from the gingiva are not susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 and CD147 is not a receptor for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The susceptibility of oral cells from other oral structures under healthy and pathological conditions still needs to be confirmed to better understand the role of the oral cavity in COVID-19 infection and transmission.


Assuntos
Basigina , Receptores de Coronavírus , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , Enzima de Conversão de Angiotensina 2/metabolismo , COVID-19 , Suscetibilidade a Doenças , Células Epiteliais/metabolismo , Gengiva , SARS-CoV-2/metabolismo , Basigina/metabolismo , Receptores de Coronavírus/metabolismo
5.
BMC Pulm Med ; 23(1): 341, 2023 Sep 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37697259

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lung infection has represented a global challenge. Intriguingly, it has been shown that the alveolar lung epithelium expresses little Angiotensin Converting Enzyme receptor protein (ACE2), the entry receptor for SARS-CoV-2. Upper airway establishment of infection and translocation to the lung is well documented but other anatomical niches may be relevant to potentially serious lung infection. ACE2 is heavily expressed in the gastrointestinal tract and gastrointestinal symptoms support a clinical diagnosis of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This suggests a research question and the need to gather patient data exploring potential aerodigestive links in SARS-CoV-2 tranlocation and infection which may be relevant in the peripheral lung. This recognizes anatomical proximity and concepts of bi-directional movement between the Gastrointestinal and lung systems in normal physiology and disease. We have therefore explored the potential for gastro oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) micro aspiration and aeorodigestive pathophysiology in a novel prospective investigation of patients hospitalized with COVID-19. METHODS: This is a prospective descriptive cohort study of 210 patients who were hospitalized with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19. The cohort was divided into three groups of patients based on symptom severity and radiological results. The Reflux Symptom Index (RSI) was used to evaluate the presence and severity of GOR. An RSI greater than 13 is considered to be abnormal. Patients' saliva samples were tested using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to determine the level of salivary pepsin among the cohort of patients. RESULTS: A total of 210 patients with COVID-19 were enrolled in the study with 55.2% (116/210) classified as mildly ill, 31.9% (67/210) moderately ill and 12.9% (27/210) as severely ill. 34% (72/210) of the patients had an RSI score of over 13 and a median salivary pepsin value of 54 ± 29 ng/ml which suggested an incidence of extraesophageal reflux (EOR) in around a third of patients. The presence of respiratory comorbid conditions, an RSI score of over 13 and a salivary pepsin level of > 76ng/ml increased the risk of developing a more severe COVID-19 infection. CONCLUSION: The study showed a high prevalence of EOR among the study cohort and provide the first prospective evidence suggesting the potential for aerodigestive pathophysiology including microaspiration in COVID-19 disease. We believe that the results of our study support the need for more extensive research.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Refluxo Gastroesofágico , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Estudos Prospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , Jordânia/epidemiologia , Enzima de Conversão de Angiotensina 2 , Estudos de Coortes , Pepsina A , Refluxo Gastroesofágico/epidemiologia
6.
Epidemiol Infect ; 150: e42, 2022 01 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35094727

RESUMO

A subset of events within the UK Government Events Research Programme (ERP), developed to examine the risk of transmission of COVID-19 from attendance at events, was examined to explore the public health impact of holding mass sporting events. We used contact tracing data routinely collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires, to describe the potential public health impact of the large sporting and cultural events on potential transmission and incidence of COVID-19. Data from the EURO 2020 matches hosted at Wembley identified very high numbers of individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 and were traced through NHS Test & Trace. This included both individuals who were potentially infectious (3036) and those who acquired their infection during the time of the Final (6376). This is in contrast with the All England Lawn Tennis Championships at Wimbledon, where there were similar number of spectators and venue capacity but there were lower total numbers of potentially infectious cases (299) and potentially acquired cases (582). While the infections associated with the EURO 2020 event may be attributed to a set of socio-cultural circumstances which are unlikely to be replicated for the forthcoming sporting season, other aspects may be important to consider including mitigations for spectators to consider such as face coverings when travelling to and from events, minimising crowding in poorly ventilated indoor spaces such as bars and pubs where people may congregate to watch events, and reducing the risk of aerosol exposure through requesting that individuals avoid shouting and chanting in large groups in enclosed spaces.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Eventos de Massa , Saúde Pública , Esportes , COVID-19/transmissão , Busca de Comunicante , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2
7.
Environ Res ; 203: 111810, 2022 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34343550

RESUMO

With a recent surge of the new severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2, COVID-19) in South Korea, this study attempts to investigate the effects of environmental conditions such as air pollutants (PM2.5) and meteorological covariate (Temperature) on COVID-19 transmission in Seoul. To account for unobserved heterogeneity in the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 across 25 contiguous districts within Seoul, we adopt a full Bayesian hierarchical approach for the generalized linear mixed models. A formal statistical analysis suggests that there exists a positive correlation between a 7-day lagged effect of PM2.5 concentration and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, which implies an elevated risk of the infectious disease. Conversely, temperature has shown a negative correlation with the number of COVID-19 cases, leading to reduction in relative risks. In addition, we clarify that the random fluctuation in the relative risks of COVID-19 mainly originates from temporal aspects, whereas no significant evidence of variability in relative risks is observed in terms of spatial alignment of the 25 districts. Nevertheless, this study provides empirical evidence using model-based formal assessments regarding COVID-19 infection risks in 25 districts of Seoul from a different perspective.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , COVID-19 , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/análise , Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , Material Particulado/análise , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Seul/epidemiologia , Temperatura
8.
Environ Res ; 208: 112711, 2022 05 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35033552

RESUMO

How is the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2020 with an health policy of full lockdowns and in 2021 with a vast campaign of vaccinations? The present study confronts this question here by developing a comparative analysis of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic between April-September 2020 (based upon strong control measures) and April-September 2021 (focused on health policy of vaccinations) in Italy, which was one of the first European countries to experience in 2020 high numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths and in 2021 Italy has a high share of people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (>89% of population aged over 12 years in January 2022). Results suggest that over the period under study, the arithmetic mean of confirmed cases, hospitalizations of people and admissions to Intensive Care Units (ICUs) in 2020 and 2021 is significantly equal (p-value<0.01), except fatality rate. Results suggest in December 2021 lower hospitalizations, admissions to ICUs, and fatality rate of COVID-19 than December 2020, though confirmed cases and mortality rates are in 2021 higher than 2020, and likely converging trends in the first quarter of 2022. These findings reveal that COVID-19 pandemic is driven by seasonality and environmental factors that reduce the negative effects in summer period, regardless control measures and/or vaccination campaigns. These findings here can be of benefit to design health policy responses of crisis management considering the growth of COVID-19 pandemic in winter months having reduced temperatures and low solar radiations ( COVID-19 has a behaviour of influenza-like illness). Hence, findings here suggest that strategies of prevention and control of infectious diseases similar to COVID-19 should be set up in summer months and fully implemented during low-solar-irradiation periods (autumn and winter period).


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , COVID-19 , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Pandemias , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Meio Ambiente , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Estações do Ano , Vacinação
9.
Indoor Air ; 32(10): e13110, 2022 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36305060

RESUMO

Airborne transmission of disease is of concern in many indoor spaces. Here, aerosol dispersion and removal in an unoccupied 4-bed hospital room were characterized using a transient aerosol tracer experiment for 38 experiments covering 4 configurations of air purifiers and 3 configurations of curtains. NaCl particle (mass mean aerodynamic diameter ~3 µm) concentrations were measured around the room following an aerosol release. Particle transport across the room was 1.5-4 min which overlaps with the characteristic times for significant viral deactivation and gravitational settling of larger particles. Concentrations were close to spatially uniform except very near the source. Curtains resulted in a modest increase in delay and decay times, less so when combined with purifiers. The aerosol decay rate was in most cases higher than expected from the clean air delivery rate, but the reduction in steady-state concentrations resulting from air purifiers was less than suggested by the decay rates. Apparently, a substantial (and configuration-dependent) fraction of the aerosol is removed immediately, and this effect is not captured by the decay rate. Overall, the combination of curtains and purifiers is likely to reduce disease transmission in multi-patient hospital rooms.


Assuntos
Filtros de Ar , Poluição do Ar em Ambientes Fechados , Humanos , Poluição do Ar em Ambientes Fechados/análise , Aerossóis , Quartos de Pacientes , Hospitais
10.
Can J Anaesth ; 69(5): 582-590, 2022 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35211876

RESUMO

PURPOSE: The optimal noninvasive modality for oxygenation support in COVID-19-associated hypoxemic respiratory failure and its association with healthcare worker infection remain uncertain. We report here our experience using high-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO) as the primary support mode for patients with COVID-19 in our institution. METHODS: We conducted a single-centre historical cohort study of all COVID-19 patients treated with HFNO for at least two hours in our university-affiliated and intensivist-staffed intensive care unit (Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, QC, Canada) between 27 August 2020 and 30 April 2021. We report their clinical characteristics and outcomes. Healthcare workers in our unit cared for these patients in single negative pressure rooms wearing KN95 or fit-tested N95 masks; they underwent mandatory symptomatic screening for COVID-19 infection, as well as a period of asymptomatic screening. RESULTS: One hundred and forty-two patients were analysed, with a median [interquartile range (IQR)] age of 66 [59-73] yr; 71% were male. Patients had a median [IQR] Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score of 3 [2-3], median [IQR] oxygen saturation by pulse oximetry/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio of 120 [94-164], and a median [IQR] 4C score (a COVID-19-specific mortality score) of 12 [10-14]. Endotracheal intubation occurred in 48/142 (34%) patients, and overall hospital mortality was 16%. Barotrauma occurred in 21/142 (15%) patients. Among 27 symptomatic and 139 asymptomatic screening tests, there were no cases of HFNO-related COVID-19 transmission to healthcare workers. CONCLUSION: Our experience indicates that HFNO is an effective first-line therapy for hypoxemic respiratory failure in COVID-19 patients, and can be safely used without significant discernable infection risk to healthcare workers.


RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: La modalité non invasive optimale pour le soutien en oxygène lors d'insuffisance respiratoire hypoxémique liée à la COVID-19 et son association avec l'infection des travailleurs de la santé restent incertaines. Nous rapportons ici notre expérience avec l'utilisation de canules nasales à haut débit (CNHD) comme principale modalité de soutien pour les patients atteints de COVID-19 dans notre établissement. MéTHODE: Nous avons mené une étude de cohorte historique monocentrique de tous les patients atteints de COVID-19 traités par CNHD pendant au moins deux heures dans notre unité de soins intensifs affiliée à l'université et dotée d'intensivistes (Hôpital général juif, Montréal, QC, Canada) entre le 27 août 2020 et le 30 avril 2021. Nous rapportons leurs caractéristiques cliniques et leurs résultats. Les travailleurs de la santé de notre unité ont soigné ces patients dans des chambres individuelles à pression négative en portant des masques KN95 ou N95 ajustés; ils ont subi un dépistage symptomatique obligatoire de l'infection à la COVID-19, ainsi qu'un dépistage en période asymptomatique. RéSULTATS: Cent quarante-deux patients ont été analysés, avec un âge médian [écart interquartile (ÉIQ)] de 66 [59-73] ans; 71 % étaient des hommes. Les patients avaient un score SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) médian [ÉIQ] de 3 [2, 3], un ratio médian [ÉIQ] de saturation en oxygène par oxymétrie de pouls/fraction d'oxygène inspiré de 120 [94-164], et un score 4C (un score de mortalité spécifique à la COVID-19) médian [ÉIQ] de 12 [10­14]. Dans l'ensemble, 48/142 patients (34 %) ont reçu une intubation endotrachéale, et la mortalité hospitalière globale était de 16 %. Un barotraumatisme est survenu chez 21/142 (15 %) patients. Parmi les 27 tests de dépistage symptomatiques et 139 tests asymptomatiques, aucun cas de transmission de COVID-19 liée aux CNHD aux travailleurs de la santé n'a été observé. CONCLUSION: Notre expérience indique que les CNHD constituent un traitement de première intention efficace pour l'insuffisance respiratoire hypoxémique chez les patients atteints de COVID-19 qui peut être utilisé en toute sécurité, sans risque d'infection significatif discernable pour les travailleurs de la santé.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Ventilação não Invasiva , Insuficiência Respiratória , COVID-19/complicações , COVID-19/terapia , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Oxigênio , Oxigenoterapia , Insuficiência Respiratória/etiologia , Insuficiência Respiratória/terapia
11.
J Environ Manage ; 302(Pt B): 114085, 2022 Jan 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34800764

RESUMO

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been first reported in December 2019 and rapidly spread worldwide. As other severe acute respiratory syndromes, it is a widely discussed topic whether seasonality affects the COVID-19 infection spreading. This study presents two different approaches to analyse the impact of social activity factors and weather variables on daily COVID-19 cases at county level over the Continental U.S. (CONUS). The first one is a traditional statistical method, i.e., Pearson correlation coefficient, whereas the second one is a machine learning algorithm, i.e., random forest regression model. The Pearson correlation is analysed to roughly test the relationship between COVID-19 cases and the weather variables or the social activity factor (i.e. social distance index). The random forest regression model investigates the feasibility of estimating the number of county-level daily confirmed COVID-19 cases by using different combinations of eight factors (county population, county population density, county social distance index, air temperature, specific humidity, shortwave radiation, precipitation, and wind speed). Results show that the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases is weakly correlated with the social distance index, air temperature and specific humidity through the Pearson correlation method. The random forest model shows that the estimation of COVID-19 cases is more accurate with adding weather variables as input data. Specifically, the most important factors for estimating daily COVID-19 cases are the population and population density, followed by the social distance index and the five weather variables, with temperature and specific humidity being more critical than shortwave radiation, wind speed, and precipitation. The validation process shows that the general values of correlation coefficients between the daily COVID-19 cases estimated by the random forest model and the observed ones are around 0.85.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , Umidade , SARS-CoV-2 , Temperatura , Estados Unidos , Tempo (Meteorologia)
12.
Int J Environ Health Res ; 32(5): 1095-1110, 2022 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33090891

RESUMO

We investigate the climatic influence on COVID-19 transmission risks in 228 cities globally across three climatic zones. The results, based on the application of a Boosted Regression Tree algorithm method, show that average temperature and average relative humidity explain significant variations in COVID-19 transmission across temperate and subtropical regions, whereas in the tropical region, the average diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality significantly predict the infection outbreak. The number of positive cases showed a decrease sharply above an average temperature of 10°C in the cities of France, Turkey, the US, the UK, and Germany. Among the tropical countries, COVID-19 in Indian cities is most affected by mean diurnal temperature, and those in Brazil by temperature seasonality. The findings have implications on public health interventions, and contribute to the ongoing scientific and policy discourse on the complex interplay of climatic factors determining the risks of COVID-19 transmission.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Temperatura
13.
Eur Econ Rev ; 150: 104283, 2022 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36193445

RESUMO

Do cities accelerate COVID-19 transmission? Increased transmission arising from population density prompts spatial policies for financial support and containment, and poorer prospects for recovery. Using daily case counts from over 3,000 counties in the U.S. from February to September 2020, I estimate a compartmental transmission equation. Rational sheltering behavior plausibly varies by location, so I propose two instruments that exploit unanticipated variation in exposure to potential infection. In the first month of local infections, an additional log point of population density raises the expected transmission parameter estimate by around 3%. After the first month, the relation vanishes: density effects occur only in the outbreaks. Public transport, work-from-home jobs and income explain additional variation in transmission but do not account for the density effects. Consistent with location-varying optimal sheltering behavior, I document stronger mobility declines in denser areas, but only after the first month of infections. These results suggest that differences in transmission between cities and other places do not motivate spatial policies for recovery or containment, or poorer prospects after the pandemic.

14.
Appl Soft Comput ; 131: 109728, 2022 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36281433

RESUMO

Public sentiments towards global pandemics are important for public health assessment and disease control. This study develops a modularized deep learning framework to quantify public sentiments towards COVID-19, followed by leveraging the predicted sentiments to model and forecast the daily growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally, via a proposed G parameter. In the proposed framework, public sentiments are first modeled via a valence dimensional indicator, instead of discrete schemas, and are classified into 4 primary emotional categories: (a) neutral; (b) negative; (c) positive; (d) ambivalent, by using multiple word embedding models and classifiers for text sentiments analyses and classification. The trained model is subsequently applied to analyze large volumes (millions in quantity) of daily Tweets pertaining to COVID-19, ranging from 22 Jan 2020 to 10 May 2020. The results demonstrate that the global community gradually evokes both positive and negative sentiments towards COVID-19 over time compared to the dominant neural emotion at its inception. The predicted time-series sentiments are then leveraged to train a deep neural network (DNN) to model and forecast the G parameter by achieving the lowest possible mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) score of around 17.0% during the model's testing step with the optimal model configuration.

15.
Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul ; 111: 106509, 2022 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35437340

RESUMO

In this paper, a spectral approach is used to formulate and solve robust optimal control problems for compartmental epidemic models, allowing the uncertainty propagation through the optimal control model to be represented by a polynomial expansion of its stochastic state variables. More specifically, a statistical moment-based polynomial chaos expansion is employed. The spectral expansion of the stochastic state variables allows the computation of their main statistics to be carried out, resulting in a compact and efficient representation of the variability of the optimal control model with respect to its random parameters. The proposed robust formulation provides the designers of the optimal control strategy of the epidemic model the capability to increase the predictability of the results by simply adding upper bounds on the variability of the state variables. Moreover, this approach yields a way to efficiently estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic state variables and conduct a global sensitivity analysis. To show the practical implementation of the proposed approach, a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission is considered. The numerical results show that the spectral approach proposed to formulate and solve robust optimal control problems for compartmental epidemic models provides healthcare systems with a valuable tool to mitigate and control the impact of infectious diseases.

16.
Hist Philos Life Sci ; 44(4): 72, 2022 Dec 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36477872

RESUMO

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Greek authorities enforced a vaccination mandate for healthcare workers (HCWs). At the same time, multiple concerns were raised about the epidemiological profile of Greece in addition to the ethical status of the harsh measures and their impact on employees, organizations, society, and public health. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), considerations regarding the evidence of vaccine safety and effectiveness, necessity, and proportionality should be clearly evaluated by before imposing mandatory vaccination policies. We discuss the issues regarding the mechanics of the transmission and contraction of SARS-CoV-2, the toxicity of COVID-19 vaccines, and the impact of the suspension of HCWs who did not vaccinate versus the potential expected benefits in addition to whether the vaccine mandates were justified considering the overall epidemiological context.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Saúde Pública
17.
Qatar Med J ; 2022(4): 50, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36340970

RESUMO

The risk of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission in the confined mobile ambulance compartment is increased during aerosol-generating procedures and close proximity. Paramedics are encouraged to increase body-surface-isolation by donning additional personal protective equipment (PPE) during patient encounters. This study aimed to better understand paramedics' knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to PPE use during the COVID-19 pandemic in the prehospital setting with a focus on mitigating risks associated with infection control. This prospective quantitative study collected descriptive data using a specifically designed data collection tool. The survey data was then cleaned and analyzed with Microsoft Excel® and the latest version of the Statistical Package for Social Sciences. One thousand frontline paramedics employed by the Hamad Medical Corporation Ambulance Service (HMCAS) were invited via email to participate in the study. A total of 282 (28.2% of frontline paramedics) paramedics completed the online survey, of which 80.1% completed the mandatory HMCAS online infection control training program within the last year, and 17.0% between one to two years ago. Approximately 83% of the participants had completed an N95 mask fit test at HMCAS within the past five years, and 91.5% completed the hand hygiene training. The study found that 98.2% of the paramedics were knowledgeable about COVID-19 and its transmission, while 96.1% agreed that aerosol-generating procedures increased airborne transmission. The paramedics' attitudes were mainly positive toward the use of PPE to prevent the spread of the virus, which was synchronous with their practice. The sample population demonstrated a strong knowledge of COVID-19 and its transmission. Their overall positive attitudes and good infection control practices were demonstrative of efforts to mitigate risks associated with the spread of the virus.

19.
Curr Opin Colloid Interface Sci ; 54: 101451, 2021 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33782631

RESUMO

The high rate of spreading of COVID-19 is attributed to airborne particles exhaled by infected but often asymptomatic individuals. In this review, the role of aerosols in SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus transmission is discussed from the biophysical perspective. The essential properties of the coronavirus virus transported inside aerosol droplets, their successive inhalation, and size-dependent deposition in the respiratory system are highlighted. The importance of face covers (respirators and masks) in the reduction of aerosol spreading is analyzed. Finally, the discussion of the physicochemical phenomena of the coronavirus entering the surface of lung liquids (bronchial mucus and pulmonary surfactant) is presented with a focus on a possible role of interfacial phenomena in pulmonary alveoli. Information given in this review should be important in understanding the essential biophysical conditions of COVID-19 infection via aerosol route as a prerequisite for effective strategies of respiratory tract protection, and possibly, indications for future treatments of the disease.

20.
Virol J ; 18(1): 138, 2021 07 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34217301

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is a catastrophic global phenomenon, affecting human life in a way unseen since the 1918 influenza pandemic. Effective management of this threat requires halting transmission, a strategy requiring accurate knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns. METHODS: This was a retrospective contact study aiming to estimate the transmission rate of COVID-19 by tracing contacts in symptomatic, pre-symptomatic, and asymptomatic patients. History of patients' contacts during 24 h before appearance of symptoms or infection confirmation was traced for disease transmission. RESULTS: Overall, a total of 201 COVID-19 patients had contact with 7168 people in 24 h with an average of 35.66 contacts per patient, ranging from a minimum of 4 to maximum of 87 contacts (meetings). Out of 7168 persons met, infection was detected in 64 (0.89%). For the 155 symptomatic patients, a total of 5611 contacted persons were traced before appearance of symptoms (pre-symptomatic) in last 24 h with an average of 36.20 meetings per patient. The infection was transmitted in 63 (1.12%) people with 5548 (98.88%) remaining uninfected. Out of the 63 transmissions, 62 (98.4%) were traced within 6 h before symptom onset, while only 1 was identified in the 6-12 h timeframe before symptoms. A total of 1557 persons were traced having meeting/contacts with asymptomatic cases in last 24 h before infection confirmation. Out of these 1557 persons, only 1 was found to be infected and the infection rate was calculated to be 0.06%. Statistically, the transmission rate by pre-symptomatic patients was found to be significantly higher than the transmission rate by asymptomatic individuals (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: In the studied population, the risk of pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 was low, with transmission risks of 1.12% and 0.06% respectively. Pre-symptomatic infection becomes very rare in contacts made longer than 6 h before onset of symptoms. The infection transmission is traced as long as about 9 h before the appearance of clear symptoms in the patients, but the incidence rate was as low as about 0.02% of the total contacts in that period.


Assuntos
Infecções Assintomáticas/epidemiologia , COVID-19/transmissão , Busca de Comunicante/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Idoso , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Busca de Comunicante/métodos , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Paquistão , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Adulto Jovem
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