Evaluating the evidence for non-monotonic dose-response relationships: A systematic literature review and (re-)analysis of in vivo toxicity data in the area of food safety.

This study aims to evaluate the evidence for the existence of non-monotonic dose-responses (NMDRs) of substances in the area of food safety. This review was performed following the systematic review methodology with the aim to identify in vivo studies published between January 2002 and February 2015 containing evidence for potential NMDRs. Inclusion and reliability criteria were defined and used to select relevant and reliable studies. A set of six checkpoints was developed to establish the likelihood that the data retrieved contained evidence for NMDR. In this review, 49 in vivo studies were identified as relevant and reliable, of which 42 were used for dose-response analysis. These studies contained 179 in vivo dose-response datasets with at least five dose groups (and a control group) as fewer doses cannot provide evidence for NMDR. These datasets were extracted and analyzed using the PROAST software package. The resulting dose-response relationships were evaluated for possible evidence of NMDRs by applying the six checkpoints. In total, 10 out of the 179 in vivo datasets fulfilled all six checkpoints. While these datasets could be considered as providing evidence for NMDR, replicated studies would still be needed to check if the results can be reproduced to rule out that the non-monotonicity was caused by incidental anomalies in that specific study. This approach, combining a systematic review with a set of checkpoints, is new and appears useful for future evaluations of the dose response datasets regarding evidence of non-monotonicity.

Prenatal exposure to persistent organic pollutants and child overweight/obesity at 5-year follow-up: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs), may influence offspring weight gain. More prospective epidemiological studies are needed to compliment the growing body of evidence from animal studies. METHODS: Serum from 412 pregnant Norwegian and Swedish women participating in a Scandinavian prospective cohort study were collected in 1986-88, and analyses of two perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) and five organochlorines (OCs) were conducted. We used linear and logistic regression models with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to evaluate the associations between maternal serum POP concentrations at 17-20 weeks of gestation and child overweight/obesity (body mass index (BMI) ≥ 85th percentile) at 5-year follow-up. Results were further stratified by country after testing for effect modification. We also assessed potential non-monotonic dose-response (NMDR) relationships. RESULTS: In adjusted linear models, we observed increased BMI-for-age-and-sex z-score (ß = 0.18, 95% CI: 0.01-0.35), and increased triceps skinfold z-score (ß = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.02-0.27) in children at 5-year follow-up per ln-unit increase in maternal serum perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) concentrations. We observed increased odds for child overweight/obesity (BMI ≥ 85th percentile) for each ln-unit increase in maternal serum PFOS levels (adjusted OR: 2.04, 95% CI: 1.11-3.74), with stronger odds among Norwegian children (OR: 2.96, 95% CI: 1.42-6.15). We found similar associations between maternal serum perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) concentrations and child overweight/obesity. We found indications of NMDR relationships between PFOS and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) 153 and child overweight/obesity among Swedish children. CONCLUSION: We found positive associations between maternal serum PFAS concentrations and child overweight/obesity at 5-year follow-up, particularly among Norwegian participants. We observed some evidence for NMDR relationships among Swedish participants.

Resilience of groundwater systems in the presence of Bisphenol A under uncertainty.

Assessing the health risks associated with emerging contaminants in groundwater systems is a complex issue that has been receiving increased attention in indirect potable reuse applications. Among several emerging contaminants, our study focuses on developing a numerical model that aims to compute the transport characteristics of Bisphenol A (BPA) in a 3D spatially heterogeneous aquifer under uncertainty. Traditional approaches that characterize the health risk of BPA to humans rely on the monotonic dose-response (MDR) relationship with a regulatory dose limit. Recent public health studies indicate that BPA can cause endocrine-related health effects in specific low dose ranges, which requires the consideration of the non-monotonic dose-response (NMDR) model. This work investigates the impact of different BPA DR models (i.e., monotonic vs. non-monotonic) on the resilience of the aquifer against BPA contamination in the presence of hydrogeological heterogeneity. For the resilience estimation, a systematic stochastic methodology linking risk characterization to aquifer resilience is established. Our results show the importance of the interplay between the DR models and aquifer heterogeneity on controlling the uncertainty of the resilience loss RL (d) at a specified environmentally sensitive target. In the increased level of aquifer heterogeneity, the uncertainty bounds are higher for RL estimated through the NMDR model as opposed to the MDR model. Moreover, RL is controlled by η (-), the ratio of the volumetric flow rate at the source zone to the average flow rate at the background aquifer. In a risk management perspective, the consideration of the NMDR model needs to be emphasized due to its impact on the uncertainty of RL. A critical case is when the land use of a contamination site indicates a large number of the vulnerable population to endocrine-related health effects. In this case, η as an indicator of aquifer resilience can reduce the uncertainty of RL.

Evidence of the Possible Harm of Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals in Humans: Ongoing Debates and Key Issues.

Evidence has emerged that endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) can produce adverse effects, even at low doses that are assumed safe. However, systemic reviews and meta-analyses focusing on human studies, especially of EDCs with short half-lives, have demonstrated inconsistent results. Epidemiological studies have insuperable methodological limitations, including the unpredictable net effects of mixtures, non-monotonic dose-response relationships, the non-existence of unexposed groups, and the low reliability of exposure assessment. Thus, despite increases in EDC-linked diseases, traditional epidemiological studies based on individual measurements of EDCs in bio-specimens may fail to provide consistent results. The exposome has been suggested as a promising approach to address the uncertainties surrounding human studies, but it is never free from these methodological issues. Although exposure to EDCs during critical developmental periods is a major concern, continuous exposure to EDCs during non-critical periods is also harmful. Indeed, the evolutionary aspects of epigenetic programming triggered by EDCs during development should be considered because it is a key mechanism for developmental plasticity. Presently, living without EDCs is impossible due to their omnipresence. Importantly, there are lifestyles which can increase the excretion of EDCs or mitigate their harmful effects through the activation of mitohormesis or xenohormesis. Effectiveness of lifestyle interventions should be evaluated as practical ways against EDCs in the real world.