Climate migration amplifies demographic change and population aging.

The warnings of potential climate migration first appeared in the scientific literature in the late 1970s when increased recognition that disintegrating ice sheets could drive people to migrate from coastal cities. Since that time, scientists have modeled potential climate migration without integrating other population processes, potentially obscuring the demographic amplification of this migration. Climate migration could amplify demographic change-enhancing migration to destinations and suppressing migration to origins. Additionally, older populations are the least likely to migrate, and climate migration could accelerate population aging in origin areas. Here, we investigate climate migration under sea-level rise (SLR), a single climatic hazard, and examine both the potential demographic amplification effect and population aging by combining matrix population models, flood hazard models, and a migration model built on 40 y of environmental migration in the United States to project the US population distribution of US counties. We find that the demographic amplification of SLR for all feasible Representative Concentration Pathway-Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP-SSP) scenarios in 2100 ranges between 8.6-28 M [5.7-53 M]-5.3 and 18 times the number of migrants (0.4-10 M). We also project significant aging of coastal areas as youthful populations migrate but older populations remain, accelerating population aging in origin areas. As the percentage of the population lost due to climate migration increases, the median age also increases-up to 10+ y older in some highly impacted coastal counties. Additionally, our population projection approach can be easily adapted to investigate additional or multiple climate hazards.

Projections of human kinship for all countries.

Demographers have long attempted to project future changes in the size and composition of populations, but have ignored what these processes will mean for the size, composition, and age distribution of family networks. Kinship structures matter because family solidarity-a crucial source of informal care for millions of people around the world-is conditional on kin being alive. Here, we present innovative projections of biological kin for the 1950 to 2100 period and discuss what they imply for the availability of informal care. Overall, we project that the number of living kin for individuals will decline dramatically worldwide. While a 65-yo woman in 1950 could expect to have 41 living kin, a 65-yo woman in 2095 is projected to have just 25 [18.8 to 34.7] relatives (lower and upper 80% projection intervals). This represents a 38% [15 to 54] global decline. The composition of family networks is also expected to change, with the numbers of living grandparents and great-grandparents markedly increasing, and the numbers of cousins, nieces and nephews, and grandchildren declining. Family networks will age considerably, as we project a widening age gap between individuals and their kin due to lower and later fertility and longer lifespans. In Italy, for example, the average age of a grandmother of a 35-yo woman is expected to increase from 77.9 y in 1950 to 87.7 y [87.1 to 88.5] in 2095. The projected changes in kin supply will put pressure on the already stretched institutional systems of social support, as more individuals age with smaller and older family networks.

Air pollution and the burden of long-term care: Evidence from China.

We examine the causal effects of PM2.5 exposure on the burden of long-term care (LTC) by matching a satellite-based PM2.5 (particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers (µm) in diameter) dataset with a nationally representative longitudinal study in China from 2011 to 2018. We find significant adverse effects of PM2.5 exposure-instrumented by thermal inversions-on the LTC burden. A 10 µg/m3 increase in annual PM2.5 exposure increases average monthly hours of LTC and the associated financial costs by 28 h and CNY 452, respectively. The effects are greater for those who had never smoked nor experienced severe PM2.5 pollution (annual average PM2.5 > 35 µg/m3) in the previous 5 years. We also find that as PM2.5 increases, chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases, could lead to a higher likelihood of LTC dependency but reduce the total hours and costs of LTC provision. Finally, we find that PM2.5 reduces the total years of LTC need, suggesting that PM2.5 increases LTC costs by increasing the severity of LTC dependency, rather than the duration of LTC need. Our findings can assist policymakers in planning for LTC provisions and clean air policies.

Ambient PM2.5 exposure and rapid population aging: A double threat to public health in the Republic of Korea.

Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) can infiltrate deep into the respiratory system, posing significant health risks. Notably, the health burden of PM2.5 is more pronounced among the older adult population. With an aging population, the public health burden attributable to PM2.5 could escalate even if the current PM2.5 level remains stable. This study evaluated the number of deaths attributable to long-term PM2.5 exposure in the Republic of Korea between 2020 and 2050 and identified the PM2.5 concentration required at least to maintain the current PM2.5 health burden. To calculate mortality for 2020-2050, we performed a health impact assessment using 3-year (2019-2021) average population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations, age-specific population and mortality rates. In 2020, 33,578 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 31,708-35,448] deaths were attributable to PM2.5 exposure. Projecting forward, if the 2019-2021 average PM2.5 level remains constant, mortality is projected to be 112,953 (95% CI = 109,963-115,943) in 2050, more than three times higher than in 2020. To maintain the same level of health burden in 2050 as in 2020, the PM2.5 concentration needs to be immediately reduced to 5.8 µg/m3. In an age-specific analysis, the proportion of older adults (ages 65+) to total mortality would increase from 83% (2020) to 96% (2050), indicating that the rising mortality is predominantly driven by the aging population. By region, the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations, which is required immediately in 2020 to have the health burden in 2050 equal to that in 2020, varied from 3.6 µg/m3 in Goheung-gun (25% reduction) to 20.8 µg/m3 in Heungdeok-gu (82% reduction). Our study emphasizes the critical need for air quality management to consider aging populations when establishing PM2.5 air quality standards, as well as their associated policies and regulations.

Social and physical environment effects on toileting disability among older adults in India.

BACKGROUND: To examine the prevalence of toileting disability among older adults in India and its association with broad aspects of the physical and social environment. METHODS: We use data from the inaugural wave of the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India and focus on adults aged 65 and older (N = 20,789). We draw on the disablement process model and existing frameworks to identify environmental factors and other risk factors that may be associated with toileting disability. Hierarchical logistic regressions are implemented to analyze the health impacts from physical and social environment characteristics. RESULTS: One in five older Indian adults had difficulties with toileting, and the prevalence rate of this functional disability varied across sub-national regions. We find that low neighborhood trust was associated with an increased likelihood of toileting disability, as was the use of assistive mobility devices. The negative effects of these social and external environment characteristics hold when we stratified the sample by rural and urban residency. Also, older adults in urban areas without access to toilets and using shared latrines had higher odds of being disabled in terms of toileting. Other factors important in explaining toileting disability among older adults included poor self-rated health, arthritis, currently working, living in the East or West region, and having functional limitations. CONCLUSIONS: Poor person-environment fit can compromise older adults' ability to perform self-care tasks. Policymakers need to look beyond the physical environment (e.g., dedicating resources to construct toilet facilities) to adopt a more holistic, multi-faceted approach in their sanitation policies. Improving the safety of neighborhood surroundings in which shared latrines are located and the availability of accessible toilets that cater to those with mobility impairments can help improve independence in toileting among older adults.

The willingness and influencing factors to choose institutional elder care among rural elderly: an empirical analysis based on the survey data of Shandong Province.

BACKGROUND: The ageing of the population has become an escalating problem in China, which has led to an increasing demand for healthcare throughout society. The care services of elderly institutions, as a more mature way of aging, can alleviate various social problems brought about by ageing to a certain extent. The aim of this paper is to explore the degree of acceptance of institutional care by rural elderly people in Shandong Province and the factors that influence whether rural elderly people accept institutional care services. METHODOLOGY: Based on the theory of planned behavior, an analytical framework was constructed for the willingness of rural elderly people to receive nursing services from elderly care institutions. Using survey data from 192 rural elderly people in Shandong Province, descriptive statistics, binary logistic regression, and horizontal comparative analysis methods were used to analyze the willingness of rural elderly people to provide for the elderly and its influencing factors. RESULT: Only 17.71% of respondents expressed willingness to receive services from elderly care institutions. Among them, education level, trust in elderly care institutions, and support from adult children have a significant positive impact on whether rural elderly people receive nursing services from elderly care institutions; The number of children, the level of understanding of elderly care institutions, neighbors' choices of elderly care methods, and their ability to contribute to the family have a significant negative impact on whether rural elderly people receive nursing services from elderly care institutions. There are significant differences in the willingness and influencing factors of rural elderly people to provide for the elderly among different regions. CONCLUSION: The non-acceptance of institutional care by rural older people is a general phenomenon rather than a sample characteristic, thus justifying the supplementary status of institutional care services. The pension intention of the rural elderly in Shandong Province is obviously affected by personal will factors, and the influencing factors are various. The traditional concept of old-age care in Shandong province has a strong path-dependent effect on the choice of the rural elderly. There is heterogeneity in the willingness and influencing factors of the rural elderly in different regions and countries. Based on this, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: strengthen the spiritual and cultural construction of residents; The government should pay attention to the correct guidance of public opinion; And increase pension subsidies. It is hoped that reduce the burden of national elderly care through these suggestions.

How population aging promotes carbon emission reduction in Chinese cities: The chain mediating role of industrial upgrading and energy conservation.

High carbon emissions and population aging are two obstacles to China's development as an emerging economy. It is urgent to scientifically examine the impacts of population aging on carbon emissions to discover new pathways for urban carbon emission reduction. However, existing studies face challenges in terms of focusing on and methodology for accurately capturing the role of industrial production and energy consumption in the environmental effects of population aging. This paper constructs a chain mediation analytical framework and systematically examines the intrinsic linkages between population aging and carbon emissions in Chinese cities from 2000 to 2020 using a two-way fixed effects model. This paper has three main findings. (1) The positive correlation between urban population aging and carbon emissions development is generally low, with coupling coordination degree values of 0.4233, 0.4458, 0.4220, 0.4715, and 0.4665 for each yearly cross-section. (2) For every 1% increase in the population aging rate, carbon emissions decrease by 0.3478% on average. The carbon reduction effect of population aging is significantly greater in low-emissions cities and high-income cities than in other cities. (3) The industrial upgrading (IU) path, energy conservation (EC) path and chain mediation (CM) path account for 72.43%, 7.23% and 20.34%, respectively, of the indirect effects. If the causal link between IU and EC is not considered, the EC effect will be overestimated by 281.16%. The results of the study suggest that properly coping with population aging and reducing carbon emissions are not completely opposed to each other, a conclusion that passes both endogeneity exclusion and robustness check. This paper advocates replacing the one-size-fits-all approach in carbon emissions management and investing more in policy preferences to support carbon emission reduction in both high-emissions and low-income cities.

The degree of population aging and living carbon emissions: Evidence from China.

Population aging and global warming have become everyday concerns of all countries. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2019, this paper uses the panel fixed effect model and two-stage least square method to analyze the effect of population aging on domestic energy carbon emissions of urban and rural residents. On this basis, the threshold regression model is introduced to explore the heterogeneity of the effect under different aging levels. The results show that (1) the progress of population aging at the overall level will significantly increase the level of carbon emissions from household energy consumption. At the regional level, the effect of population aging on carbon emissions from household energy consumption in rural areas is higher than in urban areas. (2) Population aging has a nonlinear effect on the carbon emissions of residential energy consumption. For urban areas, when the level of population aging crosses the threshold, its marginal impact on living carbon emissions in urban areas is further enhanced. In contrast, the opposite is true in rural areas. (3) Heterogeneity analysis results show that the impact of population aging on residential energy carbon emissions differs in different regions at the national and rural levels but does not show regional heterogeneity at the urban level.

[Demographic and professional risks of depopulation among working population in Russia: 14 years later (analytical review).]

The article presents a comparative analysis of the process of population aging in the context of demographic and professional risks of depopulation among working population in Russia. The values of the main medical and demographic indicators of population aging for Russia and developed countries were given. The results of UN forecasts, probabilistic forecasts of the total number and some characteristics of the age-sex structure for the population of the Russian Federation were analyzed. The state of demographic disadvantage in Russia and in the world was convincingly shown. Particular attention was paid to the consideration of the demographic risks of a reduction in the working-age population and an increase in the burden on the working-age population. The need for further research on the use of geroprotectors and modern gerontotechnologies as means and methods for preventing premature decline in work ability, slowing down the aging process of workers, reducing the mortality rate among working population and increasing professional longevity has been proven.

[Geriatric syndromes: the importance of the problem, controversial issues of terminology.]

The foundation of healthy aging is the prevention of disability. In modern medical usage, a syndrome refers to a collection of symptoms and signs with a single underlying cause that may not yet be known. Geriatric syndromes, on the other hand, refer to multifactorial health conditions and occur when the accumulated effects of impairments in multiple systems make an older person vulnerable to situational changes. The use of the term "syndrome" in geriatrics emphasizes the multiple causes of a single manifestation involving an abundance of factors involving multiple organs and systems and is characterized by unique features of common health problems in older adults. It is the geriatric syndromes that can have a significant impact on quality of life and disability. Therefore, early detection of these medical conditions using targeted geriatric assessment is essential in geriatrics. Understanding the essence and feminology of geriatric syndromes, their correct positioning and interpretation is an extremely urgent problem. The main purpose of the presented review is precisely to try to answer these questions. In addition, it has not yet been determined whether geriatric syndromes should be included in the diagnosis (the only exception is sarcopenia syndrome, which was officially included in the 10th International Classification of Diseases in 2016).

Chinese Migrant Workers' Financial Security in Old Age-A Cultural Shift From Reliance on Filial Piety to Public Pension.

Migrant workers' retirement in rural China need not mean that they are financially ready for retirement. This study examines which factors influence migrant workers' public pension savings. Using a mixed-methods approach comprising surveys and interviews with Chinese migrant workers from three emigration provinces (Anhui, Henan, and Sichuan), we find that migrant workers with more social support and less spending on children are more likely to have public pension savings than their counterparts. We also observe an age cohort effect for spending on children: The younger cohorts of migrant workers in their 40s and 50s are more likely to spend their savings on children than save for retirement. In the dual process of urbanization and population aging, the emergence of retirement in rural China is reshaping the intergenerational relations such that the culture of filial piety is no longer the sole foundation of old-age financial security.

The impact of "Aging with Medical and Caregiving" on family caregiving-Evidence from China's pilot cities for integrating medical and caregiving.

Easing the pressure on family caregiving and addressing the shortage of manpower for family caregiving are significant challenges that China faces in responding to its aging population. This study utilizes data from the 2015 and 2020 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and employs a Difference-in-Difference method to investigate the impact of pilot policies that integration of medical and caregiving for aging individuals. The findings reveal that these pilot programs are successful in reducing the amount of time spent on family caregiving and the financial burden placed on families, effectively relieving the pressure associated with family caregiving. However, the effects of these programs differ depending on the level of disability, household registration, and the geographical location of the participants. Further analysis suggests that these pilot programs achieve these positive outcomes by increasing government investment in health and wellness funds and providing in-family medical and caregiving services.

Health and labor market effects of an unanticipated rise in retirement age. Evidence from the 2012 Italian pension reform.

As retirement ages increase around the world, not all workers may be equally able to extend their working lives. In this article, we examine the health and labor market effects of an Italian pension reform that suddenly increased the normal retirement age up to 7 years for women and up to 2 years for men. To do this, we use linked labor and healthcare administrative data, jointly with survey data and difference-in-difference methods. Our results show that the reform was effective in postponing retirement among both genders, as pension claiming dropped substantially for older workers. However, there were also side effects as the reform significantly pushed previously employed men and women into unemployment and disability pension. Among women only, the reform also increased sick leave and hospitalizations related to mental health and injuries. These effects were driven by women with previously low health status, suggesting that undifferentiated and abrupt increases in pension age might harm more vulnerable workers. Coherently with the milder tightening of retirement age experienced by men, labor market responses were smaller in size, and they did not suffer any significant health effects.

The Extension of Late Working Life in Germany: Trends, Inequalities, and the East-West Divide.

The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. We use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onward for the 1941‒1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours and present results for western and eastern Germany by gender, education, and occupation. While working life expectancy has increased across cohorts, we find strong regional and socioeconomic disparities. Decomposition analyses show that among males, socioeconomic differences are predominantly driven by variation in employment rates; among women, variation in both employment rates and working hours are highly relevant. Older eastern German women have longer working lives than older western German women, which is likely attributable to the German Democratic Republic legacy of high female employment.

Predicting of elderly population structure and density by a novel grey fractional-order model with theta residual optimization: a case study of Shanghai City, China.

BACKGROUND: Accurately predicting the future development trend of population aging is conducive to accelerating the development of the elderly care industry. This study constructed a combined optimization grey prediction model to predict the structure and density of elderly population. METHODS: In this paper, a GT-FGM model is proposed, which combines Theta residual optimization with fractional-order accumulation operator. Fractional-order accumulation can effectively weaken the randomness of the original data sequence. Meanwhile, Theta residual optimization can adjust parameter by minimizing the mean absolute error. And the population statistics of Shanghai city from 2006 to 2020 were selected for prediction analysis. By comparing with the other traditional grey prediction methods, three representative error indexes (MAE, MAPE, RMSE) were conducting for error analysis. RESULTS: Compared with the FGM model, GM (1,1) model, Verhulst model, Logistic model, SES and other classical prediction methods, the GT-FGM model shows significant forecasting advantages, and its multi-step rolling prediction accuracy is superior to other prediction methods. The results show that the elderly population density in nine districts in Shanghai will exceed 0.5 by 2030, among which Huangpu District has the highest elderly population density, reaching 0.6825. There has been a steady increase in the elderly population over the age of 60. CONCLUSIONS: The GT-FGM model can improve the prediction accuracy effectively. The elderly population in Shanghai shows a steady growth trend on the whole, and the differences between districts are obvious. The government should build a modern pension industry system according to the aging degree of the population in each region, and promote the balanced development of each region.

The demographic dividend is more than an education dividend.

The demographic dividend has long been viewed as an important factor for economic development and provided a rationale for policies aiming at a more balanced age structure through birth control and family planning. Assessing the relative importance of age structure and increases in human capital, recent work has argued that the demographic dividend is related to education and has suggested a dominance of improving education over age structure. Here we reconsider the empirical relevance of shifts in the age distribution for development for a panel of 159 countries over the period 1950 to 2015. Based on a flexible model of age-structured human capital endowments, the results document important interactions between age structure and human capital endowments, suggesting that arguments of clear dominance of education over age structure are unwarranted and lead to potentially misleading policy conclusions. An increase in the working-age population share has a strong and significant positive effect on growth, even conditional on human capital, in line with the conventional notion of a demographic dividend. An increase in human capital only has positive growth effects if combined with a suitable age structure. An increasing share of the most productive age groups has an additional positive effect on economic performance. Finally, the results show considerable heterogeneity in the effect of age structure and human capital for different levels of development. Successful policies for sustainable development should take this heterogeneity into account to avoid detrimental implications of a unidimensional focus on human capital without accounting for demography.

Population aging, migration, and productivity in Europe.

This paper provides a systematic, multidimensional demographic analysis of the degree to which negative economic consequences of population aging can be mitigated by changes in migration and labor-force participation. Using a microsimulation population projection model accounting for 13 individual characteristics including education and immigration-related variables, we built scenarios of future changes in labor-force participation, migration volumes, and their educational composition and speed of integration for the 28 European Union (EU) member states. We study the consequences in terms of the conventional age-dependency ratio, the labor-force dependency ratio, and the productivity-weighted labor-force dependency ratio using education as a proxy of productivity, which accounts for the fact that not all individuals are equality productive in society. The results show that in terms of the more sophisticated ratios, population aging looks less daunting than when only considering age structure. In terms of policy options, lifting labor-force participation among the general population as in Sweden, and education-selective migration if accompanied by high integration, could even improve economic dependency. On the other hand, high immigration volumes combined with both low education and integration leads to increasing economic dependency. This shows the high stakes involved with integration outcomes under high migration volumes.

An aging giant at the center of global warming: Population dynamics and its effect on CO2 emissions in China.

Revealing the complex correlation between population aging and CO2, and projecting their future dynamics are fundamentally necessary to inform effective policies toward a low-carbon and sustainable development in China. Differing from the existing studies, this study highlighted a quantitative investigation on the impact of aging on CO2 emissions across the different stages of regional development in China through a STIRPAT model based on balanced provincial panel data from 1995 to 2019, and projected the demographic change and CO2 emissions till 2050 by employing cohort model and scenario analysis. It is found that CO2 emissions in China has witnessed a significant growth during 1995-2019, and will exhibit an inverted U-shaped growth till 2050 with its peak appears between 2030 and 2040. Statistically, every 1% growth of aging population will cause a 0.62% increase in CO2 emissions in China. However, a big regional difference was also detected as aging contributed to CO2 reduction in the eastern region, but stimulated CO2 emissions in the central and western regions. Policy implications for achieving a low-carbon and aging-oriented sustainable development may include the integration of aging into the decision-making in industrial structure upgrading and CO2 emission reduction at both national and region levels, the promotion of further transition to low-carbon consumption and green products in the eastern region, and strengthening the deep fusion of aging-oriented industries with local resource and environmental endowment in the central and western regions such as the development of eco-agriculture and green pension industries.

Low life satisfaction status among older people with and without an intimate partner: a nationwide cross-sectional study in China.

BACKGROUND: Focusing on older people with and without an intimate partner, this study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of low life satisfaction in both groups, as well as the potential risk factors. METHODS: The 2017-2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) data were used, and 9960 individuals aged 60 years and above were included in the analyses. Factors evaluated in this survey included sociodemographic characteristics, clinical variables, physical and social activities, and economic and social factors. The associations of low life satisfaction with independent variables were analysed using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Compared with those with an intimate partner (n = 2025), elders without an intimate partner (n = 7935) showed a higher prevalence of low life satisfaction (15.1 vs. 9.9%, P < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression showed that ≥2 physical diseases (P = 0.024), poor self-reported health status (P = 0.012), and lack of community care service (P = 0.014) were risk factors for low life satisfaction among elders without an intimate partner, while poor self-reported health status (P < 0.001), ≥2 physical diseases (P = 0.001), being troubled with bodily pain (P < 0.001), lack of light physical activity >10 mins each time (P = 0.011), lack of moderate physical activity >10 mins each time (P = 0.001), lack of social activities in the previous month (P = 0.039), and lack of community care service (P < 0.001) were risk factors for elders with an intimate partner. Regarding the potential reasons for low life satisfaction in the elderly, dissatisfaction with current health status (28.0%) and air quality (15.6%) were most prevalent. CONCLUSIONS: Older people without an intimate partner have lower life satisfaction. Having ≥2 physical diseases, poor self-reported health status, and lack of community care service were common risk factors for low life satisfaction among older adults with or without an intimate partner.

Relationship between specific leisure activities and successful aging among older adults.

Background/Objectives: This study was designed to investigate the association between specific leisure activities and successful aging among older adults, using data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. Methods: A total of 7689 older adults were involved in this study and categorized as successful aging group (n = 3989; 51.8%) or non-successful aging group (n = 3703; 48.2%). Participants were identified as successful aging if they had a score of more than 3 points, or as non-successful aging. The points were based on the following five items and each item was assigned 1 point: self-rated health, self-rated psychological status or mood, cognitive function, activities of daily life, and physical activity. Six activities including gardening work, reading newspapers or books, raising domestic animals or pets, playing cards or mahjong, watching TV or listening to radio, and participating in social activities were collected to reflect leisure activities. Chi-square tests, independent sample t-test, and logistic regression analyses were employed to explore the association between specific leisure activities and successful aging. Results: The prevalence of successful aging was 51.8% among Chinese older adults. A significant positive relationship was found between the frequency of participation in specific leisure activities and successful aging (p < 0.05). Older adults who usually participated in leisure activities had greater odds for successful aging compared to those who never participated in leisure activities (adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.31 (95% CI: 1.15-1.49) to 1.88 (95% CI: 1.62-2.19)). Older adults participating in one or more leisure activities had greater odds for successful aging compared to those who did not participate in leisure activities (adjusted OR: 1.51 (95% CI: 1.30-1.76) to 4.10 (95% CI: 2.44-6.89)). Conclusions: The findings provide evidence that participating more frequently and in more leisure activities was associated with a greater probability of successful aging among Chinese older adults. Encouraging older people to participate frequently in a larger number of leisure activities may be a key to promote successful aging. Therefore, the frequency and number of participation in leisure activities should be highlighted and targeted for promoting successful aging.