Month-to-month all-cause mortality forecasting: a method allowing for changes in seasonal patterns.

Forecasting of seasonal mortality patterns can provide useful information for planning health-care demand and capacity. Timely mortality forecasts are needed during severe winter spikes and/or pandemic waves to guide policy-making and public health decisions. In this article, we propose a flexible method for forecasting all-cause mortality in real time considering short-term changes in seasonal patterns within an epidemiologic year. All-cause mortality data have the advantage of being available with less delay than cause-specific mortality data. In this study, we use all-cause monthly death counts obtained from the national statistical offices of Denmark, France, Spain, and Sweden from epidemic seasons 2012-2013 through 2021-2022 to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. The method forecasts deaths 1 month ahead, based on their expected ratio to the next month. Prediction intervals are obtained via bootstrapping. The forecasts accurately predict the winter mortality peaks before the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the method predicts mortality less accurately during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, it captures the aspects of later waves better than other traditional methods. The method is attractive for health researchers and governmental offices for aiding public health responses because it uses minimal input data, makes simple and intuitive assumptions, and provides accurate forecasts both during seasonal influenza epidemics and during novel virus pandemics.

Understanding early deaths after major emergency abdominal surgery: An observational study of 754 patients.

BACKGROUND: Major emergency abdominal surgery is associated with severe postoperative complications and high short- and long-term mortality. Despite recent advancements in standardizing multidisciplinary care bundles, a subgroup of patients continues to face a heightened risk of short-term mortality. This study aimed to identify and describe the high-risk surgical patients and risk factors for short-term postoperative mortality. METHODS: In this study, we included all patients undergoing major emergency abdominal surgery over 2 years and collected data on demographics, intraoperative variables, and short-term outcomes. The primary outcome measure was short-term mortality and secondary outcome measures were pre, intra, and postoperative risk factors for premature death. Multivariable binary regression analysis was performed to determine possible risk factors for short-term mortality. RESULTS: Short-term mortality within 14 days of surgery in this cohort of 754 consecutive patients was 8%. Multivariable analysis identified various independent risk factors for short-term mortality throughout different phases of patient care. These factors included advanced age, preoperative history of myocardial infarction or ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, liver cirrhosis, chronic kidney disease, and vascular bowel ischemia or perforation of the stomach or duodenum during the primary surgery. CONCLUSION: Patients at high risk of early mortality following major emergency abdominal surgery exhibited distinct perioperative risk factors. This study underscores the importance of clinicians identifying and managing these factors in high-risk patients to ensure optimal care.

Risk factors for short-term all-cause mortality in patients with end stage renal disease: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVES: There is a lack of prognostic information to guide the prediction of short-term all-cause mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The aim was to review the risk factors that influenced the risk of short-term all-cause mortality in patients with ESRD. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science databases were searched for articles published between 2000 and 2020. Articles describing risk factors predicting short-term mortality (≤ 3 years) in patients with ESRD were included. Four reviewers independently performed title, abstract, full text screening and data extraction. Assessment of risk of bias was assessed using the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool checklist. RESULTS: 20,840 articles were identified and 113 papers were included for this review. Of the 113 papers, 6.2% included only peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients, 67.3% included only hemodialysis (HD) patients, 20.4% included both PD and HD patients, with the remaining papers featuring patients on conservative management or awaiting renal transplant. Risk factors were categorised into 13 domains: 1)demographics/ lifestyle, 2) comorbidities 3)intradialytic blood pressure, 4)biomarkers, 5)cardiovascular measurements, 6)frailty status, 7)medications, 8)treatment related indicators, 9)renal related parameters, 10)health status, 11)cause of ESRD, 12)access to healthcare care/ information and, 13)proxy measures for poor health. C-reactive protein(CRP), age, and functional status were observed to have higher percentage of instances of being significantly associated with all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: Commonly examined risk factors observed from this review may be used to build a general prognostic model for patients with ESRD, with specific treatment related risk factors added on to enhance the accuracy of the models.

A multi-institutional study of short-term mortality in COVID-positive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery: is survival better than expected?

PURPOSE: Early reports of 30-day mortality in COVID-positive patients with hip fracture were often over 30% and were higher than historical rates of 10% in pre-COVID studies. We conducted a multi-institutional retrospective cohort study to determine whether the incidence of 30-day mortality and complications in COVID-positive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery is as high as initially reported. METHODS: A retrospective chart review was performed at 11 level I trauma centers from January 1, 2020 to May 1, 2022. Patients 50 years or older undergoing hip fracture surgery with a positive COVID test at the time of surgery were included. The primary outcome measurements were the incidence of 30-day mortality and complications. Post-operative outcomes were reported using proportions with 95% confidence interval (C.I.). RESULTS: Forty patients with a median age of 71.5 years (interquartile range, 50-87 years) met the criteria. Within 30-days, four patients (10%; 95% C.I. 3-24%) died, four developed pneumonia, three developed thromboembolism, and three remained intubated post-operatively. Increased age was a statistically significant predictor of 30-day mortality (p = 0.01), with all deaths occurring in patients over 80 years. CONCLUSION: In this multi-institutional analysis of COVID-positive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery, 30-day mortality was 10%. The 95% C.I. did not include 30%, suggesting that survival may be better than initially reported. While COVID-positive patients with hip fractures have high short-term mortality, the clinical situation may not be as dire as initially described, which may reflect initial publication bias, selection bias introduced by testing, or other issues. LEVELS OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic Level III.

Patients with fulminant myocarditis supported with veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of short-term mortality and impact of risk factors.

Fulminant myocarditis (FM) may lead to cardiogenic shock requiring veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO). Results of effectiveness studies of VA-ECMO have been contradictory. We evaluated the aggregate short-term mortality after VA-ECMO and predictive factors in patients with FM. We systematically searched in electronic databases (February 2022) to identify studies evaluating short-term mortality (defined as mortality at 30 days or in-hospital) after VA-ECMO support for FM. We included studies with 5 or more patients published after 2009. We assessed the quality of the evidence using the QUIPS and GRADE tools. Mortality was pooled using random effect models. We performed meta-regression to explore heterogeneity based on a priori defined factors. We included 54 observational studies encompassing 2388 FM patients supported with VA-ECMO. Median age was 41 years (25th to 75th percentile 37-47), and 50% were female. The pooled short-term mortality was 35% (95% CI 29-40%, I2 = 69%; moderate certainty). By meta-regression, studies with younger populations showed lower mortality. Female sex, receiving a biopsy, cardiac arrest, left ventricular unloading, and earlier recruitment time frame, did not explain heterogeneity. These results remained consistent regardless of continent and the risk of bias category. In individual studies, low pH value, high lactate, absence of functional cardiac recovery on ECMO, increased burden of malignant arrhythmia, high peak coronary markers, and IVIG use were identified as independent predictors of mortality. When conventional therapies have failed, especially in younger patients, cardiopulmonary support with VA-ECMO should be considered in the treatment of severe FM.

Relationship between blood urea nitrogen to serum albumin ratio and short-term mortality among patients from the surgical intensive care unit: a population-based real-world study.

BACKGROUND: Patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit (SICU) often suffer from multi-organ dysfunction and have a high mortality rate. Therefore, finding a simple but effective clinical indicator to predict the prognosis of patients is essential to improve their survival. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between blood urea nitrogen to serum albumin ratio (B/A) and short-term mortality among patients from the SICU. METHODS: All eligible adult patients admitted to the SICU from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database were recruited for this study. Participants were divided into a death group (n = 638) and a survival group (n = 2,048) based on the 90-day prognosis, and then grouped by B/A quartiles. We used restricted cubic splines (RCS) to visually analyze the correlation of B/A with 30- and 90-day risk of death. Cumulative survival rates were estimated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves according to B/A quartiles and evaluated using the log-rank test. Cox proportional risk models were developed and sensitivity analyses were performed to explore whether B/A was independently associated with short-term outcomes in SICU patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were analyzed to ascertain the value of B/A for prognosticating 90-day outcome. RESULTS: A total of 2686 participants were included in the final study, and their 30-day and 90-day all-cause mortality rates were 17.61% and 23.75%, respectively. The differences in 30-day and 90-day mortality rates were statistically significant among the four groups of patients (all p < 0.001). RCS curves showed that B/A was linearly associated with the risk of 30-day and 90-day all-cause mortality in SICU patients (χ2 = 0.960, p = 0.811; χ2 = 1.940, p = 0.584). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the 90-day cumulative survival rate gradually decreased as B/A increased, with patients in the highest quartile of B/A having the lowest survival rate (p < 0.001). Cox regression indicated that elevated B/A (> 9.69) was an independent risk factor for 30-day and 90-day all-cause mortality in SICU patients. The analysis of ROC curves demonstrated that B/A exhibited a significant predictive ability for 90-day mortality, with an optimal threshold of 6.587, a sensitivity of 56.9%, and a specificity of 64.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated B/A (> 9.69) on admission was an independent risk factor for short-term mortality in SICU patients, and clinicians should pay more attention to this group of patients and intervene clinically at an early stage to reduce mortality.

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor plus pentoxifylline increases short-term survival in patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis: a network meta-analysis.

Background: Optimal treatments for severe alcoholic hepatitis (SAH) remain controversial. Previous network meta-analysis showed that corticosteroid (CS) combined with N-acetylcysteine (NAC) was superior in reducing short-term mortality of patients with SAH. Recently, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) treatments for SAH yielded promising results.Objectives: To determine how currently available treatments affect the survival and complications of patients with SAH.Methods: The study was conducted following the guidelines of PRISMA. The data from PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, and clinicaltrials.gov to October 2022 were searched, and patients with SAH with pharmacotherapy were included in our study. The primary outcome was short-term survival, and the other outcomes were medium- (3/6 months) or long-term (12 months) survival and complications after treatment. R software was used to establish network meta-analysis models and the result was expressed by the odd ratio (OR) value and 95% credible interval (Crls).Results: A total of 31 randomized controlled trials, including 19 treatment regimens, were enrolled in our study. As the primary outcome, G-CSF+ pentoxifylline (PTX) ranked first in one-month survival and showed significant superiority when compared with the placebo (OR 8.60, 95% Crls 1.92-45.10) and CS (OR 4.95, 95% Crls 1.11-25.53). Also, G-CSF+PTX ranked first in improving three-month survival and reducing the occurrence of infection. PTX+MTD ranked first in six-month survival, and G-CSF ranked first in twelve-month survival. CS+MTD ranked first in the occurrence of gastrointestinal bleeding and hepatorenal syndrome.Conclusions: The combination of G-CSF and PTX showed a significant benefit in improving the short-term survival of SAH patients.

Effect of intra-aortic balloon pump with veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in acute myocardial infarction with cardiogenic shock: A meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of a concomitant intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) with veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) intervention in acute myocardial infarction with cardiogenic shock (AMICS) patients is contested in the literature. This study sought to compare short-term mortality weaning rate from VA-ECMOin AMICS cases. METHODS: We conducted a literature review and compared the primary and secondary endpoints in the following treatment groups of AMICS patients: (1) VA-ECMO plus IABP vs. IABP alone and (2) VA-ECMO plus IABP vs. VA-ECMO alone. The primary endpoint was in-hospital all-cause mortality; while 30-days mortality, weaning from VA-ECMO, and vascular complications comprised secondary endpoints. RESULTS: VA-ECMO concomitant with IABP was administered to 3,580 (76.4%) patients, while IABP alone and VA-ECMO alone treatments accounted for 1.7% and 21.9% of the patients, respectively. We found that in-hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients treated with VA-ECMO plus IABP vs. VA-ECMO alone (odds ratio (OR) = 0.52; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.21-1.31; I-squared statistic (I2 = 30%) or IABP alone (OR = 0.20; 95% CI = 0.08-0.55; I2 = 0%). Additionally, 30-days mortality was significantly lower in patients treated with VA-ECMO plus IABP vs. VA-ECMO alone (OR = 0.31; 95% CI = 0.25-0.40; I2 = 0%) or IABP alone (OR = 0.24; 95% CI = 0.11-0.50; I2 = 0%). A significant difference was observed in weaning from VA-ECMO in patients treated with VA-ECMO plus IABP vs. VA-ECMO alone (OR = 1.91; 95% CI = 1.09-3.33; I2 = 0%). CONCLUSION: In-hospital and 30-days mortality were significantly lower in AMICS patients treated with VA-ECMO plus IABP vs. VA-ECMO alone or IABP alone. VA-ECMO with concomitant IABP could increase the proportion of patients weaned from VA-ECMO, significantly reducing in-hospital mortality, without increasing complications.

Predictors of Short-Term Mortality in Patients with Ischemic Stroke.

Background and Objectives: The purpose of this study is to investigate the predictive factors for intrahospital mortality in ischemic stroke patients. We will examine the association between a range of clinical and demographic factors and intrahospital mortality, including age, sex, comorbidities, laboratory values, and medication use. Materials and Methods: This retrospective, longitudinal, analytic, observational cohort study included 243 patients over 18 years old with a new ischemic stroke diagnosis who were hospitalized in Cluj-Napoca Emergency County Hospital. Data collected included the patient demographics, baseline characteristics at hospital admission, medication use, carotid artery Doppler ultrasound, as well as cardiology exam, and intrahospital death. Results: Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine which variables were independently associated with intrahospital death. An NIHSS score > 9 (OR-17.4; p < 0.001) and a lesion volume > 22.3 mL (OR-5.8; p = 0.003) were found to be associated with the highest risk of death. In contrast antiplatelet treatment (OR-0.349; p = 0.04) was associated with lower mortality rates. Conclusions: Our study identified a high NIHSS score and large lesion volume as independent risk factors for intrahospital mortality in ischemic stroke patients. Antiplatelet therapy was associated with lower mortality rates. Further studies are needed to explore the potential mechanisms underlying these associations and to develop targeted interventions to improve patient outcomes.

The influences of timing of urgent endoscopy in patients with acute variceal bleeding: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There has always been a debate on the optimal timing of endoscopy in patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the relation between the timing of endoscopy and the short-term outcomes of patients with AVB. METHODS: Patients with AVB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h after admission at our tertiary care center from 2014 to 2022 were evaluated retrospectively. The primary outcomes were the 6-week mortality and re-bleeding. The secondary outcomes included the total number of blood units transfused, the length of hospital stay, and the need for salvage therapy. We used Cox proportional hazards model to analyze the predictors of 6-week mortality in all patients as well as in those who were at high risk of further bleeding or death. RESULTS: A total of 312 patients were enrolled. Among them, 170 patients (54.49%) underwent urgent endoscopy (< 6 h), and 142 patients (45.51%) underwent early endoscopy (6-24 h). There were no significant differences between the urgent-endoscopy group and the early-endoscopy group, regarding the 6-week mortality (16.47% vs. 10.56%; P value = 0.132) and 6-week re-bleeding rate (11.2% vs. 16.2%; P value = 0.196). In multivariate analysis, time to endoscopy was independent of 6-week mortality (P value = 0.170), but the time between the beginning of bleeding and endoscopy (within 12 h) was significantly associated with low 6-week mortality (OR: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.06-0.46; P value = 0.001). Time to endoscopy was still not associated with 6-week mortality in patients at high risk for further bleeding or death (Glasgow-Blatchford score ≥ 12, n = 138, P value = 0.902). CONCLUSIONS: Endoscopy performed within 6 h of admission, rather than within 6 to 24 h, did not improve six-week clinical outcomes in patients in stable condition with AVB and even those who were at high risk of further bleeding and death.

Association between frailty and clinical outcomes in surgical patients admitted to intensive care units: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative frailty may be a strong predictor of adverse postoperative outcomes. We investigated the association between frailty and clinical outcomes in surgical patients admitted to the ICU. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, and Ovid MEDLINE were searched for relevant articles. We included full-text original English articles that used any frailty measure, reporting results of surgical adult patients (≥18 yr old) admitted to ICUs with mortality as the main outcome. Data on mortality, duration of mechanical ventilation, ICU and hospital length of stay, and discharge destination were extracted. The quality of included studies and risk of bias were assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. Data were synthesised according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines. RESULTS: Thirteen observational studies met inclusion criteria. In total, 58 757 patients were included; 22 793 (39.4%) were frail. Frailty was associated with an increased risk of short-term (risk ratio [RR]=2.66; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.99-3.56) and long-term mortality (RR=2.66; 95% CI: 1.32-5.37). Frail patients had longer ICU length of stay (mean difference [MD]=1.5 days; 95% CI: 0.8-2.2) and hospital length of stay (MD=3.9 days; 95% CI: 1.4-6.5). Duration of mechanical ventilation was longer in frail patients (MD=22 h; 95% CI: 1.7-42.3) and they were more likely to be discharged to a healthcare facility (RR=2.34; 95% CI: 1.36-4.01). CONCLUSION: Patients with frailty requiring postoperative ICU admission for elective and non-elective surgeries had increased risk of mortality, lengthier admissions, and increased likelihood of non-home discharge. Preoperative frailty assessments and risk stratification are essential in patient and clinician planning, and critical care resource utilisation. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020210121.

Association of lactate to albumin ratio and bicarbonate with short-term mortality risk in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have indicated that the ratio of lactate/albumin (L/A) has predictive value for the prognosis of critically ill patients with heart failure. Some studies have also indicated that a low serum bicarbonate concentration is inversely related to the mortality risk of patients with cardiogenic shock. However, the value of bicarbonate and the L/A ratio for predicting the mortality risk of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is still unclear. We therefore conducted a retrospective study to research this problem. METHODS: The subjects of this study were patients with AMI, and the data source was the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database. The primary endpoint was 30-day all-cause mortality after admission. The Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to compare the predictive value of L/A ratio, lactate and albumin for end-point events. The effects of different L/A ratio levels and different bicarbonate concentrations on 7-day and 30-day all-cause mortality were compared using Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves. Hazard ratios for different L/A ratio and different bicarbonate concentrations were investigated using COX proportional hazards models. RESULTS: The Area Under Curve (AUC) of L/A ratio, lactate, and albumin were 0.736, 0.718, and 0.620, respectively. (1) L/A ratio: The patients were divided into three groups according to their L/A ratio: tertile T1 (L/A ratio ≤ 0.47), tertile T2 (L/A ratio ≤ 0.97), and tertile T3 (L/A ratio > 0.97). The T2 and T3 groups had higher 30-day all-cause mortality risks than the T1 group. The restricted cubic spline (RCS) model indicated that there was a nonlinear relationship between L/A ratio and 30-day mortality (P < 0.05). (2) Bicarbonate concentration: The patients were also divided into three groups based on their bicarbonate concentration: G1 (22-27 mmol/L), G2 (< 22 mmol/L), and G3 (> 27 mmol/L). The G2 and G3 groups had higher 30-day all-cause mortality risks than the G1 group. The RCS model indicated that there was a nonlinear relationship between bicarbonate concentration and 30-day mortality (P < 0.05). The RCS model indicated that there was a nonlinear relationship between hemoglobin level and 30-day all-cause mortality (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: L/A ratio and bicarbonate concentration and hemoglobin level have predictive value for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

Prevalence and predictors for 72-h mortality after transfer to acute palliative care unit.

PURPOSE: Accurate prediction of survival is important to facilitate clinical decision-making and improve quality of care at the end of life. While it is well documented that survival prediction poses a challenge for treating physicians, the need for clinically valuable predictive factors has not been met. This study aims to quantify the prevalence of patient transfer 72 h before death onto the acute palliative care unit in a tertiary care center in Switzerland, and to identify factors predictive of 72-h mortality. METHODS: All patients hospitalized between January and December 2020 on the acute palliative care unit of the Competence Center Palliative Care of the Department of Radiation Oncology at the University Hospital Zurich were assessed. Variables were retrieved from the electronic medical records. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used to identify predictors of mortality. RESULTS: A total of 398 patients were screened, of which 188 were assessed. Every fifth patient spent less than 72 h on the acute palliative care unit before death. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, predictors for 72-h mortality after transfer were no prior palliative care consult (p = 0.011), no advance care directive (p = 0.044), lower performance status (p = 0.035), lower self-care index (p = 0.003), and lower blood albumin level (p = 0.026). CONCLUSION: Late transfer to the acute palliative care unit is not uncommon, which can cause additional distress to patients and caretakers. Though clinically practical short-term survival predictors remain largely unidentified, early integration of palliative care should be practiced more regularly in patients with life-limiting illness.

Early fluid management affects short-term mortality in patients with end-stage kidney disease undergoing chronic hemodialysis and requiring continuous renal replacement therapy.

BACKGROUND: Early fluid management is considered a key element affecting mortality in critically ill patients requiring continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). Most studies have primarily focused on patients with intrinsic acute kidney injury requiring CRRT, although end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients generally exhibit greater vulnerability. We investigated the association between fluid balance and short-term mortality outcomes in ESKD patients undergoing chronic hemodialysis and requiring CRRT. METHODS: This retrospective study included 110 chronic hemodialysis patients who received CRRT between 2017 and 2019 at Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital. The amounts of daily input and output, and cumulative 3-day and 7-day input and output, were assessed from the initiation of CRRT. The participants were classified into two groups based on 7-day and 14-day mortalities. Cox regression analyses were carried out on the basis of the amounts of daily input and output, cumulative input and output, and cumulative fluid balance. RESULTS: During follow-up, 7-day and 14-day mortalities were observed in 24 (21.8%) and 34 (30.9%) patients. The patients were stratified into two groups (14-day survivors vs. non-survivors), and there were no significant differences in demographic characteristics between the two groups. However, diabetes mellitus was more common among survivors than among non-survivors. Univariate analyses showed that the amounts of daily output at 48, and 72 h, and 3-day cumulative input and output, were significantly associated with 7-day mortality risk regardless of the cumulative fluid balance (HR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.12-0.70, p = 0.01 for daily output at 48 h; HR: 0.34, 95% CI: 0.13-0.85, p = 0.02 for daily output at 72 h.; HR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.61-0.86, p = 0.01 for 3-day cumulative input; HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.41-0.90, p = 0.01 for 3-day cumulative output). Adjusted multivariate analyses showed that the lower 3-day cumulative output is an independent risk factor for 7-day and 14-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, increased cumulative output were significantly associated with reduced short-term mortality risk in chronic hemodialysis patients undergoing CRRT regardless of cumulative fluid balance. Further prospective studies to investigate the association between fluid balance and mortality in ESRD patients requiring CRRT are warranted.

Azithromycin use prior to ICU admission is associated with a lower short-term mortality for critically ill acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients: A retrospective cohort study.

Azithromycin was thought to prevent acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPDs) by anti-microbial and anti-inflammatory effects. However, it's value in the treatment of critically ill patients with AECOPD before ICU admission remains unclear. Our study aimed to find whether azithromycin use prior to ICU admission leads to better clinical outcomes for those individuals. 533 critically ill patients with AECOPD from the MIMIC-IV database were included. Univariate followed multivariate logistic regression was used to select risk factors for short-term mortality. The multivariable logistic regression models were implemented to investigate the association between azithromycin use before ICU admission and short-term mortality. Lower short-term mortality was observed in the azithromycin group (p = .021), independent of differences in demographic data and other clinical outcomes (p>.05). Azithromycin use before ICU admission was proved to have a decreased short-term mortality by multivariable logistic regression (p<.05). The results remained consistent after being stratified by age, SOFA scores, pH, and cancer diagnosis. Azithromycin use prior to ICU admission was associated with lower short-term mortality for critically ill AECOPD patients.

The Effect of COVID-19 on 30-Day Mortality Rates Amongst Fragility Hip Fracture Patients.

Aim Fragility hip fracture patients have always been vulnerable to high rates of short term mortality, an issue that may have been exacerbated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. To date, published data regarding Irish hip fracture patients in the era of COVID-19 is limited. This study aims to assess the effect of COVID-19 on 30-day mortality rates amongst a group of Irish hip fracture patients. Additionally, patient demographics, length of stay, admission haematological parameters, fracture type and surgical procedure will be assessed. Methods A multicentre, observational, retrospective study of hip fracture patients (n = 1,017) admitted to six Dublin teaching hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic (4th February to 9th July 2020) was performed. For comparative purposes, equivalent data was retrospectively collected relating to hip fracture patients admitted to the same six teaching hospitals during the same time period in 2019. Results 481 patients were admitted during the specified timeframe in 2020, compared with 536 in 2019. The mean patient age was 77.6 years and 65.9% of patients were female. There was no statistically significant overall difference in 30-day mortality rates between the study and control groups, at 5.4% in 2020 and 4.3% in 2019 (p=0.338). There was an insignificant decrease in mean length of stay (17.85 days in 2020 vs. 18.82 days in 2019; p=0.106). Advancing age (p=0.021), male gender (p=0.019), low admission haemoglobin (p=0.024) and high admission white cell count (p=0.019) were all associated with increased 30-day mortality. Conclusion We found no significant difference in 30-day mortality rates amongst our cohort of hip fracture patients at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ireland. Advancing age, male gender, anaemia at admission and leucocytosis at admission were associated with increased 30-day mortality. The continuation of COVID-19 related safety protocols in the treatment of hip fracture patients is essential in maintaining a safe hip fracture service.

Comparison of geriatric nutritional risk index and creatinine index in short-term mortality prediction in maintenance hemodialysis patients.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to analyze and compare the predictive values of the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) and Creatinine Index (CI) in the short-term mortality of maintenance hemodialysis patients and to determine their best cut-offs. METHODS: A total of 169 adult hemodialysis patients were included in this retrospective, cross-sectional, and single-center study. The demographic, clinical, and laboratory data of the month in which the patients were included in the study were obtained from their medical files and computer records. All-cause death was the primary outcome of the study during a 12-month follow-up after baseline GNRI and CI calculations. RESULTS: The mean age of the study population was 57 ± 16 years (49.7% were women, 15% were diabetic). During the one-year observation period, 19 (11.24%) of the cases died (8 CV deaths). The optimal cut-off value for GNRI was determined as 104.2 by ROC analysis [AUC = 0.682 ± 0.06, (95% CI, 0.549-0.815), p = 0.01]. The low GNRI group had a higher risk for all-cause and CV mortality compared to the higher GNRI group (p = 0.02 for both in log-rank test). The optimal sex-specific cut-off was 12.18 mg/kg/day for men [AUC = 0.723 ± 0.07, (95% CI, 0.574-0.875), p = 0.03] and was 12.08 mg/kg/day for females [AUC = 0.649 ± 0.13, (95% CI, 0.384- 0.914), p = 0.01]. Patients with lower sex-specific CI values had higher all-cause and CV mortality (p = 0.001 and p = 0.009 in log-rank test, respectively). In multivariate cox models, both GNRI [HR = 4.904 (% 95 CI, 1.77-13.56), p = 0.002] and sex-specific CI [HR = 5.1 (95% CI, 1.38-18.9), p = 0.01] predicted all-cause mortality. The association of GNRI with CV was lost [HR = 2.6 (CI 95%, 0.54-13.455), p = 0.22], but low CI had a very strong association with CV mortality [HR = 11.48 (CI 95%, 1.25 -104), p = 0.03]. DISCUSSION: In hemodialysis patients, GNRI and CI have similar powers in predicting all-cause short-term mortality. The association of CI with all-cause death depends on gender. On the other hand, sex-specific CI predicts CV mortality better than GNRI.

Time for a prehospital-modified sequential organ failure assessment score: An ambulance-Based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To adapt the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score to fit the prehospital care needs; to do that, the SOFA was modified by replacing platelets and bilirubin, by lactate, and tested this modified SOFA (mSOFA) score in its prognostic capacity to assess the mortality-risk at 2 days since the first Emergency Medical Service (EMS) contact. METHODS: Prospective, multicentric, EMS-delivery, ambulance-based, pragmatic cohort study of adults with acute diseases, referred to two tertiary care hospitals (Spain), between January 1st and December 31st, 2020. The discriminative power of the predictive variable was assessed through a prediction model trained using the derivation cohort and evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) on the validation cohort. RESULTS: A total of 1114 participants comprised two separated cohorts recruited from 15 ambulance stations. The 2-day mortality rate (from any cause) was 5.9% (66 cases). The predictive validity of the mSOFA score was assessed by the calculation of the AUC of ROC in the validation cohort, resulting in an AUC of 0.946 (95% CI, 0.913-0.978, p < .001), with a positive likelihood ratio was 23.3 (95% CI, 0.32-46.2). CONCLUSIONS: Scoring systems are now a reality in prehospital care, and the mSOFA score assesses multiorgan dysfunction in a simple and agile manner either bedside or en route. Patients with acute disease and an mSOFA score greater than 6 points transferred with high priority by EMS represent a high early mortality group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN48326533, Registered Octuber 312,019, Prospectively registered (doi:https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN48326533).

Evaluation of a risk index for predicting short-term and long-term outcomes in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of the admission risk index (RI) to predict short-term and long-term outcomes in a broad population with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) using data from the Chinese Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry. BACKGROUND: The RI was developed as a simple tool to predict risk of death in STEMI patients. The performance in predicting short-term and long-term risk of death in Chinese patients receiving percutaneous coronary intervention and conservative treatment for STEMI remains unclear. METHODS: Age, heart rate (HR), and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were used to calculate RI using (HR×[age/10]2 )/SBP. We used the prediction tool to predict mortality over 12 months. RESULTS: The C-index of the admission RI for predicting in-hospital, 1-, 6-, and 12-months mortality were 0.78, 0.78, 0.78, and 0.77, respectively, compared with 0.75 of the Global Registry in Acute Coronary Events score. Based on the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the RI was categorized into quintiles for convenient clinical use, and it revealed a nearly 15-fold gradient of increasing mortality from 2.29 to 32.5% (p < .0001) while RI >34 had the highest mortality. By categorizing into five different risk groups, the short-term and long-term mortality of patients receiving different treatments could be distinguished. CONCLUSIONS: RI based on three routine variables and easily calculated by any medical practitioner is useful for predicting in-hospital and long-term mortality in patients with STEMI at the initial consultation with clinicians.

Laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infection in systemic lupus erythematosus: Risk profiling and short-term mortality.

OBJECTIVES: To delineate laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infection (LCBI), analyze risk factors for its occurrence and predictors for its short-term mortality in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients.Methods A single center, retrospective, case-controlled study was performed in 159 SLE patients (2013-2019) to identify risk factors of LCBI by comparing patients with LCBI (n = 39) to those without infection (n = 120). The predictors associated with 30-day mortality in LCBI patients were also analyzed. RESULTS: Altogether 40 bacteria strains were isolated in 39 LCBI patients with a predominance of the gram-negative bacilli (24 strains, 60.0%). Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus were the leading Gram-negative and Gram-positive microorganisms, respectively. Occurrence of LCBI was independently predicted by: SLE disease duration >4 years, SLEDAI score >4 points, glucocorticoids dose >7.5 mg/d and the previous or concomitant occurrence of autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AIHA) or thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA). Based on the identified risk factors, we developed a matrix model for the risk of future LCBI. The 30-day mortality (39 cases) was 23.1% and healthcare-associated LCBI was a predictor for 30-day mortality in SLE patients compared with community-acquired LCBI. CONCLUSION: Longer duration, higher disease activity and glucocorticoids dose, and occurrence of AIHA or TMA were risk factors of LCBI in SLE and its poor short-term prognosis may attribute to healthcare-associated LCBI.