A Pan-cancer Transcriptome Analysis Reveals Pervasive Regulation through Alternative Promoters.

Most human protein-coding genes are regulated by multiple, distinct promoters, suggesting that the choice of promoter is as important as its level of transcriptional activity. However, while a global change in transcription is recognized as a defining feature of cancer, the contribution of alternative promoters still remains largely unexplored. Here, we infer active promoters using RNA-seq data from 18,468 cancer and normal samples, demonstrating that alternative promoters are a major contributor to context-specific regulation of transcription. We find that promoters are deregulated across tissues, cancer types, and patients, affecting known cancer genes and novel candidates. For genes with independently regulated promoters, we demonstrate that promoter activity provides a more accurate predictor of patient survival than gene expression. Our study suggests that a dynamic landscape of active promoters shapes the cancer transcriptome, opening new diagnostic avenues and opportunities to further explore the interplay of regulatory mechanisms with transcriptional aberrations in cancer.

AESurv: autoencoder survival analysis for accurate early prediction of coronary heart disease.

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in the United States. Accurate time-to-event CHD prediction models with high-dimensional DNA methylation and clinical features may assist with early prediction and intervention strategies. We developed a state-of-the-art deep learning autoencoder survival analysis model (AESurv) to effectively analyze high-dimensional blood DNA methylation features and traditional clinical risk factors by learning low-dimensional representation of participants for time-to-event CHD prediction. We demonstrated the utility of our model in two cohort studies: the Strong Heart Study cohort (SHS), a prospective cohort studying cardiovascular disease and its risk factors among American Indians adults; the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), a prospective cohort study including randomized clinical trials and observational study to improve postmenopausal women's health with one of the main focuses on cardiovascular disease. Our AESurv model effectively learned participant representations in low-dimensional latent space and achieved better model performance (concordance index-C index of 0.864 ± 0.009 and time-to-event mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve-AUROC of 0.905 ± 0.009) than other survival analysis models (Cox proportional hazard, Cox proportional hazard deep neural network survival analysis, random survival forest, and gradient boosting survival analysis models) in the SHS. We further validated the AESurv model in WHI and also achieved the best model performance. The AESurv model can be used for accurate CHD prediction and assist health care professionals and patients to perform early intervention strategies. We suggest using AESurv model for future time-to-event CHD prediction based on DNA methylation features.

ctGAN: combined transformation of gene expression and survival data with generative adversarial network.

Recent studies have extensively used deep learning algorithms to analyze gene expression to predict disease diagnosis, treatment effectiveness, and survival outcomes. Survival analysis studies on diseases with high mortality rates, such as cancer, are indispensable. However, deep learning models are plagued by overfitting owing to the limited sample size relative to the large number of genes. Consequently, the latest style-transfer deep generative models have been implemented to generate gene expression data. However, these models are limited in their applicability for clinical purposes because they generate only transcriptomic data. Therefore, this study proposes ctGAN, which enables the combined transformation of gene expression and survival data using a generative adversarial network (GAN). ctGAN improves survival analysis by augmenting data through style transformations between breast cancer and 11 other cancer types. We evaluated the concordance index (C-index) enhancements compared with previous models to demonstrate its superiority. Performance improvements were observed in nine of the 11 cancer types. Moreover, ctGAN outperformed previous models in seven out of the 11 cancer types, with colon adenocarcinoma (COAD) exhibiting the most significant improvement (median C-index increase of ~15.70%). Furthermore, integrating the generated COAD enhanced the log-rank p-value (0.041) compared with using only the real COAD (p-value = 0.797). Based on the data distribution, we demonstrated that the model generated highly plausible data. In clustering evaluation, ctGAN exhibited the highest performance in most cases (89.62%). These findings suggest that ctGAN can be meaningfully utilized to predict disease progression and select personalized treatments in the medical field.

Evaluating the impact of a street outreach intervention on participant involvement in gun violence.

The past several years have witnessed increased calls for community violence interventions (CVIs) that address firearm violence while centering local expertise and avoiding the criminal legal system. Currently, little evidence exists on CVI effectiveness at the individual level. This study presents an evaluation of the impact of a street outreach-based CVI [Chicago CRED (Create Real Economic Destiny)] on participant involvement in violence. We used a quasiexperimental design with a treatment sample of 324 men recruited by outreach staff from 2016 to 2021 and a balanced comparison sample of 2,500 men from a network of individuals arrested in CRED's service areas. We conducted a Bayesian survival analysis to evaluate CRED's effect on individual violence-related outcomes on three levels of treatment: All enrolled participants, a subsample that made it through the initial phase, and those who completed programming. The intervention had a strong favorable effect on the probability of arrest for a violent crime for those completing the program: After 24 mo, CRED alumni experienced an 11.3 percentage point increase in survival rates of arrest for a violent crime relative to their comparisons (or, stated differently, a 73.4% reduction in violent crime arrests). The other two treatment levels experienced nontrivial declines in arrests but did not reach statistical significance. No statistically significant reduction in victimization risk was detected for any of the treatment levels. Results demonstrate that completion of violence intervention programming reduces the likelihood of criminal legal involvement for participants, despite the numerous systemic and environmental factors that impede personal success.

Longer CAG repeat length is associated with shorter survival after disease onset in Huntington disease.

It is well known that the length of the CAG trinucleotide expansion of the huntingtin gene is associated with many aspects of Huntington disease progression. These include age of clinical onset and rate of initial progression of disease severity. The relationship between CAG length and survival in Huntington disease is less studied. To address this, we obtained the complete Registry HD database from the European Huntington Disease Network and reanalyzed the time from reported age of disease onset until death. We conducted semiparametric proportional hazards modeling of 8,422 participants who had experienced onset of clinical Huntington disease, either retrospectively or prospectively. Of these, 826 had a recorded age of death. To avoid biased model estimates, retrospective onset ages were represented by left truncation at study entry. After controlling for onset age, which tends to be younger in those with longer CAG repeat lengths, we found that CAG length had a substantial and highly significant influence upon survival time after disease onset. For a fixed age of onset, longer CAG expansions were predictive of shorter survival. This is consistent with other known relationships between CAG length and disease severity. We also show that older onset age predicts shorter lifespan after controlling for CAG length and that the influence of CAG on survival length is substantially greater in women. We demonstrate that apparent contradictions between these and previous analyses of the same data are primarily due to the question of whether to control for clinical onset age in the analysis of time until death.

Bayesian semiparametric model for sequential treatment decisions with informative timing.

We develop a Bayesian semiparametric model for the impact of dynamic treatment rules on survival among patients diagnosed with pediatric acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The data consist of a subset of patients enrolled in a phase III clinical trial in which patients move through a sequence of four treatment courses. At each course, they undergo treatment that may or may not include anthracyclines (ACT). While ACT is known to be effective at treating AML, it is also cardiotoxic and can lead to early death for some patients. Our task is to estimate the potential survival probability under hypothetical dynamic ACT treatment strategies, but there are several impediments. First, since ACT is not randomized, its effect on survival is confounded over time. Second, subjects initiate the next course depending on when they recover from the previous course, making timing potentially informative of subsequent treatment and survival. Third, patients may die or drop out before ever completing the full treatment sequence. We develop a generative Bayesian semiparametric model based on Gamma Process priors to address these complexities. At each treatment course, the model captures subjects' transition to subsequent treatment or death in continuous time. G-computation is used to compute a posterior over potential survival probability that is adjusted for time-varying confounding. Using our approach, we estimate the efficacy of hypothetical treatment rules that dynamically modify ACT based on evolving cardiac function.

Characterizing quantile-varying covariate effects under the accelerated failure time model.

An important task in survival analysis is choosing a structure for the relationship between covariates of interest and the time-to-event outcome. For example, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model structures each covariate effect as a constant multiplicative shift in the outcome distribution across all survival quantiles. Though parsimonious, this structure cannot detect or capture effects that differ across quantiles of the distribution, a limitation that is analogous to only permitting proportional hazards in the Cox model. To address this, we propose a general framework for quantile-varying multiplicative effects under the AFT model. Specifically, we embed flexible regression structures within the AFT model and derive a novel formula for interpretable effects on the quantile scale. A regression standardization scheme based on the g-formula is proposed to enable the estimation of both covariate-conditional and marginal effects for an exposure of interest. We implement a user-friendly Bayesian approach for the estimation and quantification of uncertainty while accounting for left truncation and complex censoring. We emphasize the intuitive interpretation of this model through numerical and graphical tools and illustrate its performance through simulation and application to a study of Alzheimer's disease and dementia.

AFEI: adaptive optimized vertical federated learning for heterogeneous multi-omics data integration.

Vertical federated learning has gained popularity as a means of enabling collaboration and information sharing between different entities while maintaining data privacy and security. This approach has potential applications in disease healthcare, cancer prognosis prediction, and other industries where data privacy is a major concern. Although using multi-omics data for cancer prognosis prediction provides more information for treatment selection, collecting different types of omics data can be challenging due to their production in various medical institutions. Data owners must comply with strict data protection regulations such as European Union (EU) General Data Protection Regulation. To share patient data across multiple institutions, privacy and security issues must be addressed. Therefore, we propose an adaptive optimized vertical federated-learning-based framework adaptive optimized vertical federated learning for heterogeneous multi-omics data integration (AFEI) to integrate multi-omics data collected from multiple institutions for cancer prognosis prediction. AFEI enables participating parties to build an accurate joint evaluation model for learning more information related to cancer patients from different perspectives, based on the distributed and encrypted multi-omics features shared by multiple institutions. The experimental results demonstrate that AFEI achieves higher prediction accuracy (6.5% on average) than using single omics data by utilizing the encrypted multi-omics data from different institutions, and it performs almost as well as prognosis prediction by directly integrating multi-omics data. Overall, AFEI can be seen as an efficient solution for breaking down barriers to multi-institutional collaboration and promoting the development of cancer prognosis prediction.

Orchestrating information across tissues via a novel multitask GAT framework to improve quantitative gene regulation relation modeling for survival analysis.

Survival analysis is critical to cancer prognosis estimation. High-throughput technologies facilitate the increase in the dimension of genic features, but the number of clinical samples in cohorts is relatively small due to various reasons, including difficulties in participant recruitment and high data-generation costs. Transcriptome is one of the most abundantly available OMIC (referring to the high-throughput data, including genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic and epigenomic) data types. This study introduced a multitask graph attention network (GAT) framework DQSurv for the survival analysis task. We first used a large dataset of healthy tissue samples to pretrain the GAT-based HealthModel for the quantitative measurement of the gene regulatory relations. The multitask survival analysis framework DQSurv used the idea of transfer learning to initiate the GAT model with the pretrained HealthModel and further fine-tuned this model using two tasks i.e. the main task of survival analysis and the auxiliary task of gene expression prediction. This refined GAT was denoted as DiseaseModel. We fused the original transcriptomic features with the difference vector between the latent features encoded by the HealthModel and DiseaseModel for the final task of survival analysis. The proposed DQSurv model stably outperformed the existing models for the survival analysis of 10 benchmark cancer types and an independent dataset. The ablation study also supported the necessity of the main modules. We released the codes and the pretrained HealthModel to facilitate the feature encodings and survival analysis of transcriptome-based future studies, especially on small datasets. The model and the code are available at http://www.healthinformaticslab.org/supp/.

Automated tumor immunophenotyping predicts clinical benefit from anti-PD-L1 immunotherapy.

Cancer immunotherapy has transformed the clinical approach to patients with malignancies, as profound benefits can be seen in a subset of patients. To identify this subset, biomarker analyses increasingly focus on phenotypic and functional evaluation of the tumor microenvironment to determine if density, spatial distribution, and cellular composition of immune cell infiltrates can provide prognostic and/or predictive information. Attempts have been made to develop standardized methods to evaluate immune infiltrates in the routine assessment of certain tumor types; however, broad adoption of this approach in clinical decision-making is still missing. We developed approaches to categorize solid tumors into 'desert', 'excluded', and 'inflamed' types according to the spatial distribution of CD8+ immune effector cells to determine the prognostic and/or predictive implications of such labels. To overcome the limitations of this subjective approach, we incrementally developed four automated analysis pipelines of increasing granularity and complexity for density and pattern assessment of immune effector cells. We show that categorization based on 'manual' observation is predictive for clinical benefit from anti-programmed death ligand 1 therapy in two large cohorts of patients with non-small cell lung cancer or triple-negative breast cancer. For the automated analysis we demonstrate that a combined approach outperforms individual pipelines and successfully relates spatial features to pathologist-based readouts and the patient's response to therapy. Our findings suggest that tumor immunophenotype generated by automated analysis pipelines should be evaluated further as potential predictive biomarkers for cancer immunotherapy. © 2024 The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Application of the ERS/ATS Spirometry Standards and Race-Neutral Equations in the COPDGene Study.

RATIONALE: The European Respiratory Society (ERS) and the American Thoracic Society (ATS) recommend using z-scores, and the ATS has recommended using Global Lung Initiative (GLI)- "Global" race-neutral reference equations for spirometry interpretation. However, these recommendations have been variably implemented and the impact has not been widely assessed, both in clinical and research settings. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the ERS/ATS airflow obstruction severity classification. METHODS: In the COPDGene Study (n = 10,108), airflow obstruction has been defined as a forced expiratory volume in one second to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) ratio <0.70, with spirometry severity graded from class 1 to 4 based on race-specific percent predicted (pp) FEV1 cut-points as recommended by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). We compared the GOLD approach, using NHANES III race-specific equations, to the application of GLI-Global equations using the ERS/ATS definition of airflow obstruction as FEV1/FVC ratio < lower limit of normal (LLN) and z-FEV1 cut-points of -1.645, -2.5, and -4 ("zGLI Global"). We tested the four-tier severity scheme for association with COPD outcomes. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The lowest agreement between ERS/ATS with zGLI Global and the GOLD classification was observed in individuals with milder disease (56.9% and 42.5% in GOLD 1 and 2) and race was a major determinant of redistribution. After adjustment for relevant covariates, zGLI Global distinguished all-cause mortality risk between normal spirometry and the first grade of COPD (Hazard Ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.04-1.44, p=0.014), and showed a linear increase in exacerbation rates with increasing disease severity, in comparison to GOLD. CONCLUSIONS: The zGLI Global severity classification outperformed GOLD in the discrimination of survival, exacerbations, and imaging characteristics.

Cardiovascular events following coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination in adults: a nationwide Swedish study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: While the rationale for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination is to reduce complications and overall mortality, some cardiovascular complications from the vaccine itself have been demonstrated. Myocarditis and pericarditis are recognized as rare acute adverse events after mRNA vaccines in young males, while evidence regarding other cardiovascular events remains limited and inconsistent. This study assessed the risks of several cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in a Swedish nationwide register-based cohort. METHODS: Post-vaccination risk of myocarditis/pericarditis, dysrhythmias, heart failure, myocardial infarction, and cerebrovascular events (transient ischaemic attack and stroke) in several risk windows after each vaccine dose were assessed among all Swedish adults (n = 8 070 674). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) compared with unvaccinated were estimated from Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: For most studied outcomes, decreased risks of cardiovascular events post-vaccination were observed, especially after dose three (HRs for dose three ranging from .69 to .81), while replicating the increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis 1-2 weeks after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination. Slightly increased risks, similar across vaccines, were observed for extrasystoles [HR 1.17 (95% CI 1.06-1.28) for dose one and HR 1.22 (95% CI 1.10-1.36) for dose two, stronger in elderly and males] but not for arrhythmias and for transient ischaemic attack [HR 1.13 (95% CI 1.05-1.23), mainly in elderly] but not for stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of myopericarditis (mRNA vaccines only), extrasystoles, and transient ischaemic attack was transiently increased after COVID-19 vaccination, but full vaccination substantially reduced the risk of several more severe COVID-19-associated cardiovascular outcomes, underscoring the protective benefits of complete vaccination.

Risk of Malaria Following Untreated Subpatent Plasmodium falciparum Infections: Results Over 4 Years From a Cohort in a High-Transmission Area in Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: People with suspected malaria may harbor Plasmodium falciparum undetected by rapid diagnostic test (RDT). The impact of these subpatent infections on the risk of developing clinical malaria is not fully understood. METHODS: We analyzed subpatent P. falciparum infections using a longitudinal cohort in a high-transmission site in Kenya. Weighted Kaplan-Meier models estimated the risk difference (RD) for clinical malaria during the 60 days following a symptomatic subpatent infection. Stratum-specific estimates by age and transmission season assessed modification. RESULTS: Over 54 months, we observed 1128 symptomatic RDT-negative suspected malaria episodes, of which 400 (35.5%) harbored subpatent P. falciparum. Overall, the 60-day risk of developing clinical malaria was low following all episodes (8.6% [95% confidence interval, 6.7%-10.4%]). In the low-transmission season, the risk of clinical malaria was slightly higher in those with subpatent infection, whereas the opposite was true in the high-transmission season (low-transmission season RD, 2.3% [95% confidence interval, .4%-4.2%]; high-transmission season RD, -4.8% [-9.5% to -.05%]). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of developing clinical malaria among people with undetected subpatent infections is low. A slightly elevated risk in the low-transmission season may merit alternate management, but RDTs identify clinically relevant infections in the high-transmission season.

AFFECT: an R package for accelerated functional failure time model with error-contaminated survival times and applications to gene expression data.

BACKGROUND: Survival analysis has been used to characterize the time-to-event data. In medical studies, a typical application is to analyze the survival time of specific cancers by using high-dimensional gene expressions. The main challenges include the involvement of non-informaive gene expressions and possibly nonlinear relationship between survival time and gene expressions. Moreover, due to possibly imprecise data collection or wrong record, measurement error might be ubiquitous in the survival time and its censoring status. Ignoring measurement error effects may incur biased estimator and wrong conclusion. RESULTS: To tackle those challenges and derive a reliable estimation with efficiently computational implementation, we develop the R package AFFECT, which is referred to Accelerated Functional Failure time model with Error-Contaminated survival Times. CONCLUSIONS: This package aims to correct for measurement error effects in survival times and implements a boosting algorithm under corrected data to determine informative gene expressions as well as derive the corresponding nonlinear functions.

An uncertainty-based interpretable deep learning framework for predicting breast cancer outcome.

BACKGROUND: Predicting outcome of breast cancer is important for selecting appropriate treatments and prolonging the survival periods of patients. Recently, different deep learning-based methods have been carefully designed for cancer outcome prediction. However, the application of these methods is still challenged by interpretability. In this study, we proposed a novel multitask deep neural network called UISNet to predict the outcome of breast cancer. The UISNet is able to interpret the importance of features for the prediction model via an uncertainty-based integrated gradients algorithm. UISNet improved the prediction by introducing prior biological pathway knowledge and utilizing patient heterogeneity information. RESULTS: The model was tested in seven public datasets of breast cancer, and showed better performance (average C-index = 0.691) than the state-of-the-art methods (average C-index = 0.650, ranged from 0.619 to 0.677). Importantly, the UISNet identified 20 genes as associated with breast cancer, among which 11 have been proven to be associated with breast cancer by previous studies, and others are novel findings of this study. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed method is accurate and robust in predicting breast cancer outcomes, and it is an effective way to identify breast cancer-associated genes. The method codes are available at: https://github.com/chh171/UISNet .

Translational modeling-based evidence for enhanced efficacy of standard-of-care drugs in combination with anti-microRNA-155 in non-small-cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Elevated microRNA-155 (miR-155) expression in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) promotes cisplatin resistance and negatively impacts treatment outcomes. However, miR-155 can also boost anti-tumor immunity by suppressing PD-L1 expression. Therapeutic targeting of miR-155 through its antagonist, anti-miR-155, has proven challenging due to its dual molecular effects. METHODS: We developed a multiscale mechanistic model, calibrated with in vivo data and then extrapolated to humans, to investigate the therapeutic effects of nanoparticle-delivered anti-miR-155 in NSCLC, alone or in combination with standard-of-care drugs. RESULTS: Model simulations and analyses of the clinical scenario revealed that monotherapy with anti-miR-155 at a dose of 2.5 mg/kg administered once every three weeks has substantial anti-cancer activity. It led to a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 6.7 months, which compared favorably to cisplatin and immune checkpoint inhibitors. Further, we explored the combinations of anti-miR-155 with standard-of-care drugs, and found strongly synergistic two- and three-drug combinations. A three-drug combination of anti-miR-155, cisplatin, and pembrolizumab resulted in a median PFS of 13.1 months, while a two-drug combination of anti-miR-155 and cisplatin resulted in a median PFS of 11.3 months, which emerged as a more practical option due to its simple design and cost-effectiveness. Our analyses also provided valuable insights into unfavorable dose ratios for drug combinations, highlighting the need for optimizing dose regimens to prevent antagonistic effects. CONCLUSIONS: This work bridges the gap between preclinical development and clinical translation of anti-miR-155 and unravels the potential of anti-miR-155 combination therapies in NSCLC.

Breast cancer survival analysis in the Republic of Mauritius by age, stage at diagnosis and molecular subtype: A retrospective cohort study.

Breast cancer is by far the leading cancer both in terms of incidence and mortality in the Republic of Mauritius, a Small Island Developing State (SIDS). However, few studies assessed its survival by age, stage at diagnosis and molecular subtype. We identified 1399 breast cancer cases newly diagnosed between 2017 and 2020 at the Central Health Laboratory, Victoria Hospital. Cancers were categorized into five molecular subtypes: (1) luminal A, (2) luminal B Her2 negative, (3) luminal B Her2 positive, (4) Her2 enriched and (5) Triple negative. The net 1 and 3-year survival were estimated for different age groups, staging at time of diagnosis and molecular subtype. We also estimated the excess hazards using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. While early stage at diagnosis (stage 1 [44.4%] and stage 2 [20.1%]) were most common compared to late presentation (Stage 3 [25.4%] and stage 4 [10.1%]), luminal B Her2 negative (36.7%) was the most frequent molecular subtype. The net 1- and 3-year breast cancer survival rates were 93.9% (92.3-95.4) and 83.4% (80.4-86.4), respectively. Breast cancer three-year survival rates were poorest among the youngest patients (<50 years), 77.1% (70.7-83.5), those diagnosed with stage 4 (28.5% [17.1-39.9]) and cancer with a triple negative molecular subtype (71.3% [63.3-79.3]). Emphasis on a national breast cancer screening programme, down staging breast cancer at diagnosis and systematic molecular subtyping of all breast tissues could be pivotal in improving breast cancer survival outcomes in the Republic of Mauritius.

Prostate cancer treatment recommendation study based on machine learning and SHAP interpreter.

This study utilized data from 140,294 prostate cancer cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Here, 10 different machine learning algorithms were applied to develop treatment options for predicting patients with prostate cancer, differentiating between surgical and non-surgical treatments. The performances of the algorithms were measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method was employed to investigate the key factors influencing the prediction process. Survival analysis methods were used to compare the survival rates of different treatment options. The CatBoost model yielded the best results (AUC = 0.939, sensitivity = 0.877, accuracy = 0.877). SHAP interpreters revealed that the T stage, cancer stage, age, cores positive percentage, prostate-specific antigen, and Gleason score were the most critical factors in predicting treatment options. The study found that surgery significantly improved survival rates, with patients undergoing surgery experiencing a 20.36% increase in 10-year survival rates compared with those receiving non-surgical treatments. Among surgical options, radical prostatectomy had the highest 10-year survival rate at 89.2%. This study successfully developed a predictive model to guide treatment decisions for prostate cancer. Moreover, the model enhanced the transparency of the decision-making process, providing clinicians with a reference for formulating personalized treatment plans.

Estimating and presenting hazard ratios and absolute risks from a Cox model with complex nonlinear interactions.

Interaction analysis is a critical component of clinical and public health research and represents a key topic in precision health and medicine. In applied settings, however, interaction assessment is usually limited to the test of a product term in a regression model and to the presentation of results stratified by levels of additional covariates. Stratification of results often relies on categorizing or making linearity assumptions for continuous covariates, with substantial loss of precision and of relevant information. In time-to-event analysis, moreover, interaction assessment is often limited to the multiplicative hazard scale by inclusion of a product term in a Cox regression model, disregarding the clinically relevant information that is captured by the absolute risk scale. In this paper we present a user-friendly procedure, based on the prediction of individual absolute risks from the Cox model, for the estimation and presentation of interactive effects on both the multiplicative and additive scales in survival analysis. We describe how to flexibly incorporate interactions with continuous covariates, which potentially operate in a nonlinear fashion, provide software for replicating our procedure, and discuss different approaches to deriving CIs. The presented approach will allow clinical and public health researchers to assess complex relationships between multiple covariates as they relate to a clinical endpoint, and to provide a more intuitive and precise depiction of the results in applied research papers focusing on interaction and effect stratification.

Separable effects for adherence.

Comparing different medications is complicated when adherence to these medications differs. We can overcome the adherence issue by assessing effectiveness under sustained use, as in usual causal 'per-protocol' estimands. However, when sustained use is challenging to satisfy in practice, the usefulness of these estimands can be limited. Here we propose a different class of estimands: separable effects for adherence. These estimands compare modified medications, holding fixed a component responsible for non-adherence. Under assumptions about treatment components' mechanisms of effect, a separable effects estimand can quantify the effectiveness of medication initiation strategies on an outcome of interest under the adherence mechanism of one of the medications. These assumptions are amenable to interrogation by subject-matter experts and can be evaluated using causal graphs. We describe an algorithm for constructing causal graphs for separable effects, illustrate how these graphs can be used to reason about assumptions required for identification, and provide semi-parametric weighted estimators.