Differential Hospital Participation in Bundled Payments in Communities with Higher Shares of Marginalized Populations.

BACKGROUND: Medicare's voluntary bundled payment programs have demonstrated generally favorable results. However, it remains unknown whether uneven hospital participation in these programs in communities with greater shares of minorities and patients of low socioeconomic status results in disparate access to practice redesign innovations. OBJECTIVE: Examine whether communities with higher proportions of marginalized individuals were less likely to be served by a hospital participating in Bundled Payments for Care Improvement Advanced (BPCI-Advanced). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study using ordinary least squares regression controlling for patient and community factors. PARTICIPANTS: Medicare fee-for-service patients enrolled from 2015-2017 (pre-BPCI-Advanced) and residing in 2,058 local communities nationwide defined by Hospital Service Areas (HSAs). Each community's share of marginalized patients was calculated separately for each of the share of beneficiaries of Black race, Hispanic ethnicity, or dual eligibility for Medicare and Medicaid. MAIN MEASURES: Dichotomous variable indicating whether a given community had at least one hospital that ever participated in BPCI-Advanced from 2018-2022. KEY RESULTS: Communities with higher shares of dual-eligible individuals were less likely to be served by a hospital participating in BPCI-Advanced than communities with the lowest quartile of dual-eligible individuals (Q4: -15.1 percentage points [pp] lower than Q1, 95% CI: -21.0 to -9.1, p < 0.001). There was no consistent significant relationship between community proportion of Black beneficiaries and likelihood of having a hospital participating in BPCI-Advanced. Communities with higher shares of Hispanic beneficiaries were more likely to have a hospital participating in BPCI-Advanced than those in the lowest quartile (Q4: 19.2 pp higher than Q1, 95% CI: 13.4 to 24.9, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Communities with greater shares of dual-eligible beneficiaries, but not racial or ethnic minorities, were less likely to be served by a hospital participating in BPCI-Advanced Policymakers should consider approaches to incentivize more socioeconomically uniform participation in voluntary bundled payments.

Did the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Bundled Payment Program Impact Sex Disparities in Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasties?

BACKGROUND: Sex disparities have been noted across various aspects of total hip/knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA). Given incentives to standardize care, bundled payment initiatives including the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) program may reduce disparities. This study aimed to assess the CJR program's impact on sex disparities in THA/TKA care and outcomes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 259,673 THAs (61.7% women) and 506,311 TKAs (64.0% women) from a large national database (2013 to 2017). Sex disparities were assessed for care and outcomes related to the period (1) before surgery, (2) during hospitalization for THA/TKA, and (3) after discharge. Disparities were reported as women:men ratios. Difference-in-differences analyses estimated the impact of the CJR program on pre-existing sex disparities. RESULTS: For both THA and TKA, women were less likely than men to present with a Charlson-Deyo comorbidity index >0 (women:men ratio 0.88 to 0.92), but were more likely to require blood transfusions (women:men ratio 1.48 to 1.79) and be discharged to institutional postacute care (women:men ratio 1.50 to 1.66). Difference-in-differences models demonstrated that the CJR bundled payment program reduced sex disparities in institutional postacute care discharges (THA: -2.28%; 95% confidence interval [CI] -4.20 to -0.35%, P = .02; TKA: -2.07%; 95% CI -3.93 to -0.20%; P = .03) and THA 90-day readmissions (-1.00%, 95% CI -1.88 to -0.13%, P = .02), indicating a differential impact of CJR in women versus men for some outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: While sex disparities in THA/TKA persist, the CJR program demonstrates potential to impact such differences. Future research should focus on how potential mechanisms could be leveraged to reduce disparities.

Practice Management Strategies Among Current Members of the American Association of Hip and Knee Surgeons.

BACKGROUND: A survey was conducted at the 2023 Annual Meeting of the American Association of Hip and Knee Surgeons (AAHKS) to assess practice management strategies among current AAHKS members. METHODS: Members of AAHKS used an app to answer both multiple-choice and "yes or no" questions related to a variety of issues related to their practices. RESULTS: The number of AAHKS members in private practice (37%) continues to decline, and 4% are now in private equity-employed practices. Fee for service (30%) and relative value units (30%) are the major forms of compensation. The number of AAHKS members that perform total joint arthroplasties at ambulatory surgery centers continues to increase, and supply chain issues (91%) remain a problem. There has been a decrease in surgeon participation in bundled payment programs and gainsharing arrangements with hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: This member's survey provides valuable information regarding practice patterns. The shift to outpatient surgery has continued. Future surveys will be performed to monitor changes in practice patterns over time.

Randomized trial shows healthcare payment reform has equal-sized spillover effects on patients not targeted by reform.

Changes in the way health insurers pay healthcare providers may not only directly affect the insurer's patients but may also affect patients covered by other insurers. We provide evidence of such spillovers in the context of a nationwide Medicare bundled payment reform that was implemented in some areas of the country but not in others, via random assignment. We estimate that the payment reform-which targeted traditional Medicare patients-had effects of similar magnitude on the healthcare experience of nontargeted, privately insured Medicare Advantage patients. We discuss the implications of these findings for estimates of the impact of healthcare payment reforms and more generally for the design of healthcare policy.

The effect of myelopathic symptoms on hospital costs, length of stay, and discharge location in anterior cervical discectomy and fusion.

OBJECTIVE: Cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) is a common clinical degenerative disease treated with anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF), which seriously impacts quality of life and causes severe disability. The objective of the study was to determine the effect of different characteristics of the neurological deficit found in myelopathic patients undergoing ACDFs on hospital cost, length of stay (LOS), and discharge location. METHODS: This is a retrospective review of ACDF cases performed at a single institution by multiple surgeons from 2011 to 2017. Patient symptomatology, complications, comorbidities, demographics, surgical time, LOS, and discharge location were collected. Patients with readmissions or reoperations were excluded. Symptoms evaluated were based on clinical diagnosis, Japanese Orthopaedic Association classification, Ranawat grade, and Cooper scales. Symptoms were further grouped using principal component analysis. Cost was defined as surgical episode hospital stay costs plus outpatient clinic costs plus discharge disposition cost. Multivariate linear regression models were created to evaluate correlations with outcomes. The primary outcome was total 90-day hospital costs. Secondary outcomes were discharge location and LOS. RESULTS: A total of 250 patients were included in the analyses. Discharge location, neuromonitoring use, number of surgical vertebral levels, cage use, LOS, surgical time, having a complication, and sex were all found to be predictive of total 90-day costs. Myelopathic symptomatology was not found to be associated with increased 90-day costs (p ≥ 0.131) when correcting for these other factors. Lower-extremity functionality was found to be associated with increased LOS (p < 0.0001). Upper-extremity myelopathy was found to be associated with increased discharge location needs (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Cervical myelopathy was not found to be predictive of total 90-day costs using symptomatology based on multiple myelopathy grading systems. Lower-extremity functionality was, however, found to predict LOS, while upper-extremity myelopathy was found to predict increased discharge location needs. This implies that preoperative deficits from myelopathy should not be considered in a bundled payment system; however, certain myelopathic symptoms should be considered when determining the cost of care.

Lessons Learned From the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Model at an Academic Tertiary Center: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

BACKGROUND: Our institution participated in the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) model from 2016 to 2020. Here we review lessons learned from a total joint arthroplasty (TJA) care redesign at a tertiary academic center amid changing: (1) CJR rules; (2) inpatient only rules; and (3) outpatient trends. METHODS: Quality, financial, and patient demographic data from the years prior to and during participation in CJR were obtained from institutional and Medicare reconciled CJR performance data. RESULTS: Despite an increase in true outpatients and new challenges that arose from changing inpatient-only rules, there was significant improvement in quality metrics: decreased length of stay (3.48-1.52 days, P < .001), increased home discharge rate (70.2-85.5%, P < .001), decreased readmission rate (17.7%-5.1%, P < .001), decreased complication rate (6.5%-2.0%, P < .001), and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Composite Quality Score increased from 4.4 to 17.6. Over the five year period, CMS saved an estimated $8.3 million on 1,486 CJR cases, $7.5 million on 1,351 non-CJR cases, and $600,000 from the voluntary classification of 371 short-stay inpatients as outpatient-a total savings of $16.4 million. Despite major physician time and effort leading to marked improvements in efficiency, quality, and large cost savings for CMS, CJR participation resulted in a net penalty of $304,456 to our institution, leading to zero physician gainsharing opportunities. CONCLUSION: The benefits of CJR were tempered by malalignment of incentives among payer, hospital, and physician as well as a lack of transparency. Future payment models should be refined based on the successes and challenges of CJR.

Implant Selection Strategies for Total Joint Arthroplasty: The Effects on Cost Containment and Physician Autonomy.

BACKGROUND: With continued declines in reimbursement for total joint arthroplasty, health systems have explored implant cost containment measures to generate sustainable margins. This review evaluated how implementation of (1) implant price control programs, (2) vendor purchasing agreements, and (3) bundled payment models affected implant costs and physician autonomy in implant selection. METHODS: PubMed, EBSCOhost, and Google Scholar were searched to identify studies that evaluated the efficacy of total hip or total knee arthroplasty implant selection strategies. The review included publications between January 1, 2002, and October 17, 2022. The mean Methodological Index for Nonrandomized Studies score was 18.3 ± 1.8. RESULTS: A total of 13 studies (32,197 patients) were included. All studies implementing implant price capitation programs found decreased implant costs, ranging 2.2 to 26.1% and increased utilization of premium implants. Most studies found bundled payments models reduced total joint arthroplasty implant costs with greatest reduction being 28.9%. Additionally, while absolute single vendor agreements had higher implant costs, preferred single vendor agreements had reduced implant costs. When given price constraints, surgeons tended to select more premium implants. CONCLUSION: Alternative payment models that incorporated implant selection strategies saw reduced costs and surgeon utilization of premium implants. The study findings encourage further research on implant selection strategies, which must balance the goals of cost containment with physician autonomy and optimized patient care. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III.

Increased length of stay following total joint arthroplasty based on insurance type.

BACKGROUND: Increased length of stay after total joint arthroplasty has been shown to be a risk factor for peri-operative complications. The purpose of this study was to determine if Medicaid insurance would be a risk factor for increased length of stay after total joint arthroplasty. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed a single surgeon's practice of 428 total hip and total knee arthroplasties who had insurance status of Medicaid, Medicare, Private or none. After exclusion criteria there were 400 patients. Patients with insurance status of Medicaid, Medicare or Private were then compared based on length of stay ≤ 2 days and length of stay > 2 days and then further analyzed using demographic, operative data, and total length of stay. RESULTS: Medicaid patients had an increased length of stay compared to patients with Medicare or Private insurance [1.98 days versus 1.73 days, p = .037, 95% confidence intervals (1.78-2.18) and (1.61-1.85), respectively]. The greatest predictor of a less than two-night stay post-operatively was private insurance status (p = 0.001). Medicaid patients had a higher incidence of prescribed narcotic use pre-operatively (p = 0.013). Although not significant, a trend was noted in the Medicaid population with higher incidence of smoking (p = 0.094) and illicit drug abuse (p = 0.099) pre-operatively in this sample subset. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with Medicaid insurance undergoing total joint arthroplasty have increased length of stay compared to patients with Medicare or Private insurance and have higher incidence of pre-operative narcotic use.

Bundled Payment Episodes Initiated by Physician Group Practices: Medicare Beneficiary Perceptions of Care Quality.

BACKGROUND: The Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) initiative incentivizes participating providers to reduce total Medicare payments for an episode of care. However, there are concerns that reducing payments could reduce quality of care. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of BPCI with patient-reported functional status and care experiences. DESIGN: We surveyed a stratified random sample of Medicare beneficiaries with BPCI episodes attributed to participating physician group practices, and matched comparison beneficiaries, after hospitalization for one of the 18 highest volume clinical episodes. The sample included beneficiaries discharged from the hospital from February 2017 through September 2017. Beneficiaries were surveyed approximately 90 days after their hospital discharge. We estimated risk-adjusted differences between the BPCI and comparison groups, pooled across all 18 clinical episodes and separately for the five largest clinical episodes. PARTICIPANTS: Medicare beneficiaries with BPCI episodes (n=16,898, response rate=44.5%) and comparison beneficiaries hospitalized for similar conditions selected using coarsened exact matching (n=14,652, response rate=46.2%). MAIN MEASURES: Patient-reported functional status, care experiences, and overall satisfaction with recovery. KEY RESULTS: Overall, we did not find differences between the BPCI and comparison respondents across seven measures of change in functional status or overall satisfaction with recovery. Both BPCI and comparison respondents reported generally positive care experiences, but BPCI respondents were less likely to report positive care experience for 3 of 8 measures (discharged at the right time, -1.2 percentage points (pp); appropriate level of care, -1.8 pp; preferences for post-discharge care taken into account, -0.9 pp; p<0.05 for all three measures). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of respondents with favorable care experiences was smaller for BPCI than comparison respondents. However, we did not detect differences in self-reported change in functional status approximately 90 days after hospital discharge, indicating that differences in care experiences did not affect functional recovery.

The potential risk of using historic claims to set bundled payment prices: the case of physical therapy after lower extremity joint replacement.

BACKGROUND: One of the most significant challenges of implementing a multi-provider bundled payment contract is to determine an appropriate, casemix-adjusted total bundle price. The most frequently used approach is to leverage historic care utilization based on claims data. However, those claims data may not accurately reflect appropriate care (e.g. due to supplier induced demand and moral hazard effects). This study aims to examine variation in claims-based costs of post-discharge primary care physical therapy (PT) utilization after total knee and hip arthroplasties (TKA/THA) for osteoarthritis patients. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used multilevel linear regression analyses to predict the factors that explain the variation in the utilization of post-discharge PT after TKA or THA for osteoarthritis patients, based on the historic (2015-2018) claims data of a large Dutch health insurer. The factors were structured as predisposing, enabling or need factors according to the behavioral model of Andersen. RESULTS: The 15,309 TKA and 14,325 THA patients included in this study received an average of 20.7 (SD 11.3) and 16.7 (SD 10.1) post-discharge PT sessions, respectively. Results showed that the enabling factor 'presence of supplementary insurance' was the strongest predictor for post-discharge PT utilization in both groups (TKA: ß = 7.46, SE = 0.498, p-value< 0.001; THA: ß = 5.72, SE = 0.515, p-value< 0.001). There were also some statistically significant predisposing and need factors, but their effects were smaller. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that if enabling factors (such as supplementary insurance coverage or co-payments) are not taken into account in risk-adjustment of the bundle price, they may cause historic claims-based pricing methods to over- or underestimate appropriate post-discharge primary care PT use, which would result in a bundle price that is either too high or too low. Not adjusting bundle prices for all relevant casemix factors is a risk because it can hamper the successful implementation of bundled payment contracts and the desired changes in care delivery it aims to support.

Value-Based Health Care in Hand Surgery: Where Are We & Where Do We Go From Here?

Health care delivery is broken. The cost of care continues to skyrocket and the outcomes most important to patients are often a mystery. Further, care is often delivered via a fee-for-service model where surgeons are rewarded for the quantity, not the quality, of services provided. Such a health care delivery system is not sustainable and does not incentivize stakeholders to focus on the most important element of the health care delivery "puzzle": the patient. Fortunately, we are in the midst of transforming our health care delivery system, with a focus on optimizing the value of care delivery (ie, health outcomes achieved per dollar spent across a full care cycle). In hand surgery, progress has been made as part of this health system evolution. However, there remains much to accomplish. In this article, the authors review the 6 components of a strategic agenda for moving to a high-value health care delivery system for hand surgery, focusing on where we are today and where we need to go from here.

Characteristics and risk factors for 90-day readmission following shoulder arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Anatomic total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) and reverse TSA are the standard of care for end-stage shoulder arthritis. Advancements in implant design, perioperative management, and patient selection have allowed shorter inpatient admissions. Unplanned readmissions remain a significant complication. Identification of risk factors for readmission is prudent as physicians and payers prepare for the adoption of bundled care reimbursement models. The purpose of this study was to identify characteristics and risk factors associated with readmission following shoulder arthroplasty using a large, bi-institutional cohort. METHODS: A total of 2805 anatomic TSAs and 2605 reverse TSAs drawn from 2 geographically diverse, tertiary health systems were examined for unplanned inpatient readmissions within 90 days following the index operation (primary outcome). Forty preoperative patient sociodemographic and comorbidity factors were tested for their significance using both univariable and multivariable logistic regression models, and backward stepwise elimination selected for the most important associations for 90-day readmission. Readmissions were characterized as either medical or surgical, and subgroup analysis was performed. A short length of stay (discharge by postoperative day 1) and discharge to a rehabilitation or skilled nursing facility were also examined as secondary outcomes. Parameters associated with increased readmission risk were included in a predictive model. RESULTS: Within 90 days of surgery, 175 patients (3.2%) experienced an unanticipated readmission, with no significant difference between institutions (P = .447). There were more readmissions for surgical complications than for medical complications (62.9% vs. 37.1%, P < .001). Patients discharged to a rehabilitation or skilled nursing facility were significantly more likely to be readmitted (13.1% vs. 8.8%, P = .049), but a short inpatient length of stay was not associated with an increased rate of 90-day readmission (42.9% vs. 41.3%, P = .684). Parameter selection based on predictive ability resulted in a multivariable logistic regression model composed of 16 preoperative patient factors, including reverse TSA, revision surgery, right-sided surgery, and various comorbidities. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for this multivariable logistic regression model was 0.716. CONCLUSION: Risk factors for unplanned 90-day readmission following shoulder arthroplasty include reverse shoulder arthroplasty, surgery for revision and fracture, and right-sided surgery. Additionally, there are several modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors that can be used to ascertain a patient's readmission probability. A shorter inpatient stay is not associated with an increased risk of readmission, whereas discharge to post-acute care facilities does impose a greater risk of readmission. As scrutiny around health care cost increases, identifying and addressing risk factors for readmission following shoulder arthroplasty will become increasingly important.

Increased Complications and Cost Associated With Hip Arthroplasty for Femoral Neck Fracture: Evaluation of 576,119 Medicare Patients Treated With Hip Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of total hip arthroplasty (THA) for treatment of osteoarthritis (OA) and femoral neck fractures (FNFs) in the geriatric population is well established. We compare perioperative complications and cost of THA for treatment of OA to hemiarthroplasty (HA) and THA for treatment of FNF. METHODS: Data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services were used to identify all patients 65 years and older undergoing primary hip arthroplasty between 2013 and 2017. Patients were divided into 3 cohorts: THA for OA (n = 326,313), HA for FNF (n = 223,811), and THA for FNF (n = 25,995). Generalized regressions were used to compare group mortality, 90-day readmission, thromboembolic events, and 90-day episode costs, controlling for age, gender, race, and comorbidities. RESULTS: Compared to patients treated for OA, FNF patients were older and had significantly more comorbidities (all P < .001). Even among the youngest age group (65-69 years) without comorbidities, FNF was associated with a greater risk of mortality at 90 days (THA-FNF odds ratio [OR] 9.3, HA-FNF OR 27.0, P < .001), 1 year (THA-FNF OR 7.8, HA-FNF OR 19.0, P < .001) and 5 years (THA-FNF hazard ratio 4.5, HA-FNF hazard ratio 10.0, P < .001). The average 90-day direct cost was $12,479 and $14,036 greater among THA and HA for FNF respectively compared to THA for OA (all P < .001). CONCLUSION: Among Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services hip arthroplasty patients, those with an FNF had significantly higher rates of mortality, thromboembolic events, readmission, and greater direct cost. Reimbursement models for arthroplasty should account for the distinctly different perioperative complication and resource utilization for FNF patients.

Profound Impact of Insurance Payor and Socioeconomic Status in Total Hip Arthroplasty Outcomes: Results From a High Volume Tertiary Care Center.

BACKGROUND: Dual eligible Medicare/Medicaid patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) have worse outcomes compared to other insurance payors. Prior literature fails to control for the heterogeneity of care provided amongst a large cohort of hospitals and surgeons as well as differences in patient populations treated. This study compares dual eligible THA patients and Medicaid and Medicare only THA patients at a single high volume tertiary center. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed patients who underwent THA for aseptic osteoarthritis of the hip over a three-year period with either Medicaid or Medicare insurance. 3,329 THA patients were included, of which 439 were Medicaid payor, 182 were dual eligible, and 2,708 were Medicare payor. Groups were compared using appropriate tests for direct comparisons and regression analysis. RESULTS: Dual eligible patients were less likely to be white and married, and were more likely to be current smokers and have COPD, liver disease, renal disease, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) compared to Medicare patients. These patients also had a lower age-adjusted Charleson Comorbidity Index when compared to Medicare patients (2.4 vs 3.4, P < .001). When controlling for smoking status, age, BMI and major medical comorbidities, dual eligible and Medicaid patients had increased length of stay (LOS) (0.58, 0.66 days, P < .001), higher risk of discharge to subacute rehabilitation (RR 1.97, 3.19, P < .001), and dual eligible patients more often returned to the ED within 90 days (RR 2.74, P < .001) compared to Medicare patients. CONCLUSION: This study supports the implementation of socioeconomic risk stratification efforts to properly evaluate value-based healthcare metrics in total hip arthroplasty patients.

Home Health Care in Medicare-Aged Patients is Associated With Increased Early Emergency Visits, Readmissions, and Costs Following Total Knee Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Home health services are utilized in order to provide at-home care following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The purpose of this study is to determine whether patients receiving home health services post-operatively had lower rates of complications, emergency room visits, and readmissions as well as to determine if home health provided value by reducing total episode-of-care costs. METHODS: The PearlDiver database was retrospectively reviewed to identify all primary TKA patients over 65 years old from 2010 to 2018. Patients who received home health services were matched using a propensity score algorithm to a set of similar patients who were discharged home under self-care. We compared complication rates, emergency room visits, readmissions, and 90-day episode-of-care claims costs between the groups. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to determine the independent effect of home health services on emergency department (ED) visits and hospital readmissions. RESULTS: Of the 185,444 TKA patients discharged home, 15,849 (8.5%) received home health services. Patients who received home health services had higher rates of ED visits at 2 weeks (3.3% vs 2.8%, P = .014) and 3 months (7.1% vs 6.5%, P = .038) as well as increased readmissions at 2 weeks (0.9% vs 0.7%, P = .028); complication rates were similar between groups (11.4% vs 10.9%, P = .159). Episode-of-care costs for home health patients were higher than those discharged under self-care ($24,266 vs $22,539, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Home health services do not appear to provide value as they are associated with significantly increased costs and do not lower the rates of complications, ED visits, or readmissions following TKA.

Practice Management Strategies Among Current Members of the American Association of Hip and Knee Surgeons.

BACKGROUND: A survey was conducted at the 2021 Annual Meeting of the American Association of Hip and Knee Surgeons (AAHKS) to evaluate current practice management strategies among AAHKS members. METHODS: An application was used by AAHKS members to answer both multiple-choice and yes or no questions. Specific questions were asked regarding the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on practice patterns. RESULTS: There was a dramatic acceleration in same day total joint arthroplasty with 85% of AAHKS members performing same day total joint arthroplasty. More AAHKS members remain in private practice (46%) than other practice types, whereas fee for service (34%) and relative value units (26%) are the major form of compensation. At the present time, 93% of practices are experiencing staffing shortages, and these shortages are having an impact on surgical volume. CONCLUSION: This survey elucidates the current practice patterns of AAHKS members. The pandemic has had a significant impact on some aspects of practice activity. Future surveys need to monitor changes in practice patterns over time.

Strategies for spinal surgery reimbursement: bundling in the working-age population.

INTRODUCTION: Bundled payments for spine surgery, which is known for having high overall cost with wide variation, have been previously studied in older adults. However, there has been limited work examining bundled payments in working-age patients. We sought to identify the variation in the cost of spine surgery among working age adults in a large, national insurance claims database. METHODS: We queried the TRICARE claims database for all patients, aged 18-64, undergoing cervical and non-cervical spinal fusion surgery between 2012 and 2014. We calculated the case mix adjusted, price standardized payments for all aspects of care during the 60-, 90-, and 180-day periods post operation. Variation was assessed by stratifying Hospital Referral Regions into quintiles. RESULTS: After adjusting for case mix, there was significant variation in the cost of both cervical ($10,538.23, 60% of first quintile) and non-cervical ($20,155.59, 74%). Relative variation in total cost decreased from 60- to 180-days (63 to 55% and 76 to 69%). Index hospitalization was the primary driver of costs and variation for both cervical (1st-to-5th quintile range: $11,033-$19,960) and non-cervical ($18,565-$36,844) followed by readmissions for cervical ($0-$11,521) and non-cervical ($0-$13,932). Even at the highest quintile, post-acute care remained the lowest contribution to overall cost ($2070 & $2984). CONCLUSIONS: There is wide variation in the cost of spine surgery across the United States for working age adults, driven largely by index procedure and readmissions costs. Our findings suggest that implementing episodes longer than the current 90-day standard would do little to better control cost variation.

Comparison of machine learning techniques to predict unplanned readmission following total shoulder arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) techniques have been shown to successfully predict postoperative complications for high-volume orthopedic procedures such as hip and knee arthroplasty and to stratify patients for risk-adjusted bundled payments. The latter has not been done for more heterogeneous, lower-volume procedures such as total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) with equally limited discussion around strategies to optimize the predictive ability of ML algorithms. The purpose of this study was to (1) assess which of 5 ML algorithms best predicts 30-day readmission, (2) test select ML strategies to optimize the algorithms, and (3) report on which patient variables contribute most to risk prediction in TSA across algorithms. METHODS: We identified 9043 patients in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Database who underwent primary TSA between 2011 and 2015. Predictors included demographics, comorbidities, laboratory data, and intraoperative variables. The outcome of interest was 30-day unplanned readmission. Five ML algorithms-support-vector machine (SVM), logistic regression, random forest (RF), an adaptive boosting algorithm, and neural network-were trained on the derivation cohort (2011-2014 TSA patients) to predict 30-day unplanned readmission rates. After training, weights for each respective model were fixed and the classifiers were evaluated on the 2015 TSA cohort to simulate a prospective evaluation. C-statistic and f1 scores were used to assess the performance of each classifier. After evaluation, features were removed independently to assess which features most affected classifier performance. RESULTS: The derivation and validation cohorts comprised 5857 and 3186 primary TSA patients, respectively, with similar demographics, comorbidities, and 30-day unplanned readmission rates (2.9% vs. 2.7%). Of the ML algorithms, SVM performed the worst with a c-statistic of 0.54 and an f1-score of 0.07, whereas the random-forest classifier performed the best with the highest c-statistic of 0.74 and an f1-score of 0.18. In addition, SVM was most sensitive to loss of single features, whereas the performance of RF did not dramatically decrease after loss of single features. Within the trained RF classifier, 5 variables achieved weights >0.5 in descending order: high bilirubin (>1.9 mg/dL), age >65, race, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and American Society of Anesthesiologists' scores ≥3. In our validation cohort, we observed a 2.7% readmission rate. From this cohort, using the RF classifier we were then able to identify 436 high-risk patients with a predicted risk score >0.6, of whom 36 were readmitted (readmission rate of 8.2%). CONCLUSION: Predictive analytics algorithms can achieve acceptable prediction of unplanned readmission for TSA with the RF classifier outperforming other common algorithms.

National Trends in Post-Acute Care Costs Following Total Knee Arthroplasty From 2007 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: Post-acute care continues to represent a target for cost savings with increasing popularity of value-based payment models in total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Rapid recovery and accelerated rehabilitation protocols have been successful in reducing costs at the institutional level, but national trends are less clear. This study aimed to determine if advancements in perioperative care led to a reduction in post-acute care costs and resource utilization following TKA. METHODS: We reviewed a consecutive series of 79,843 primary TKA patients from the Humana claims dataset from 2007 to 2016. Post-acute care costs included any claims within 90 days of surgery for subacute or inpatient rehabilitation, home health, outpatient or emergency visits, prescription medications, physical therapy, and readmissions. Demographics, episode-of-care and post-acute care costs, readmissions, and discharge disposition were compared. Controlling for demographics and comorbidities, multivariate regression analyses were performed to compare trends in discharge disposition and post-acute care costs. RESULTS: From 2007 to 2016, the average episode-of-care costs ($46,754 vs $31,856) and post-acute care costs per patient decreased ($20,224 vs $13,498). Rates of discharge to skilled nursing facilities (25.0% vs 22.5%) and inpatient rehabilitation also declined (12.4% vs 2.1%). Readmissions also decreased (8.1% vs 7.1%) saving an average of $324 per patient. When compared to 2007-2012, total costs declined most rapidly after 2013 primarily due to a $3516 (21%) decrease in post-acute spending. CONCLUSION: There has been a substantial decline in post-acute care costs and resource utilization following TKA, with the largest decrease occurring following the introduction of Medicare bundled payment models in 2013.

Target Price Adjustment for Hip Fractures Is Not Sufficient in the Bundled Payments for Care Improvement Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Under the Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) initiative, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) adjusts the target price for total hip arthroplasty (THA) based upon the historical proportion of fracture cases. Concerns exist that hospitals that care for hip fracture patients may be penalized in BPCI. The purpose of this study is to compare the episode-of-care (EOC) costs of hip fracture patients to elective THA patients. METHODS: We reviewed a consecutive series of 4096 THA patients from 2015 to 2018. Patients were grouped into elective THA (n = 3686), fracture THA (n = 176), and hemiarthroplasty (n = 274). Using CMS claims data, we compared EOC costs, postacute care costs, and performance against the target price between the groups. To control for confounding variables, we performed a multivariate analysis to identify the effect of hip fracture diagnosis on costs. RESULTS: Elective THA patients had lower EOC ($18,200 vs $42,605 vs $38,371; P < .001) and postacute care costs ($4477 vs $28,093 vs $23,217; P < .001) than both hemiarthroplasty and THA for fracture. Patients undergoing arthroplasty for fracture lost an average of $23,122 (vs $1648 profit for elective THA; P < .001) with 91% of cases exceeding the target price (vs 20% for elective THA; P < .001). In multivariate analysis, patients undergoing arthroplasty for fracture had higher EOC costs by $19,492 (P < .001). CONCLUSION: Patients undergoing arthroplasty for fracture cost over twice as much as elective THA patients. CMS should change their methodology or exclude fracture patients from BPCI, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic.