Optimizing efficiency and resilience of no-take marine protected areas for fish conservation under climate change along the coastlines of China Seas.

Climate change is one of the major threats to coastal fish biodiversity, and optimization of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) is imminent. We predicted fish redistribution under climate change in coastal China Seas with joint species distribution modeling and prioritized areas for conservation with Zonation, for which we used core area zonation (CAZ) and additive benefit function (ABF). Based on our results, we devised an expansion plan of no-take MPAs. Under climate change, fish were redistributed northward along the coast. These redistributions were segmented by the Yangtze River estuary and its adjacent waters, indicating a possible biogeographical barrier. Under CAZ and ABF, significantly more fish habitat was conserved than under random prioritization (p < 0.001, Cohen's d = -0.36 and -0.62, respectively). The ABF better represented areas with higher species richness, whereas CAZ better represented core habitats for species with narrow distributions. Without accounting for species redistribution, the expanded MPAs were mainly distributed in the northwest of the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the north of the Yellow Sea, and the west of the Bohai Sea. When accounting for species redistribution, the proposed MPAs were mainly distributed in the north of the Bohai Sea and southwest of the Yellow Sea, corresponding to the northern species redistributions. These MPAs conserved less habitat for fishes at present but protected more and better quality habitat for fishes in 2050 and 2100 than those MPAs that did not account for species redistribution, indicating improved fish conservation under climate change. Incorporating species redistribution and trade-offs between areas with high species richness and areas that contain habitats for rare species are suggested to address coastal fish conservation under climate change. This work provides valuable information for fish conservation and is a precursor to systematic conservation planning along the coastlines of China Seas.

Mejora de la eficiencia y la resiliencia de las áreas marinas protegidas con veda para la conservación de peces bajo el cambio climático en la costa de los mares de China Resumen El cambio climático es una de las principales amenazas para la biodiversidad de peces costeros, y la mejora de las área marinas protegidas (AMP) con vedas es inevitable. Pronosticamos la redistribución de los peces por el cambio climático en la costa de los mares de China con un modelo de distribución de especies y las áreas priorizadas para la conservación con Zonation, para el cual usamos zonación de las áreas núcleo (ZAN) y la función del beneficio aditivo. (FBA). Con base en nuestros resultados, diseñamos un plan de expansión de AMP con veda. Con el cambio climático, los peces se redistribuyeron hacia el norte a lo largo de la costa. Esta redistribución fue segmentada por el estuario del río Yangtze y las aguas vecinas, indicador de una posible barrera biogeográfica. Con la ZAN y la FBA, se conservó una cantidad significativa de peces en comparación con una priorización aleatoria (p < 0.001, d de Cohen = ­0.36 y ­0.62, respectivamente). La FBA representó de mejor manera las áreas con una riqueza de especies elevada, mientras que la ZAN representó de mejor manera los hábitats nucleares de las especies con una distribución reducida. Sin contar la redistribución de las especies, las AMP expandidas se localizaron principalmente en el noroeste del Mar del Sur de China, del Mar del Este de China, al norte del Mar Amarillo y al oeste del Mar Bohai. Cuando consideramos la redistribución de las especies, las AMP propuestas se localizaron principalmente al norte del Mar de Bohai y al suroeste del Mar Amarillo, lo que corresponde a la redistribución hacia el norte de las especies. Estas AMP conservaron un menor hábitat de los peces en el presente pero protegieron un mejor hábitat y de mayor calidad para los peces en 2050 y 2100 que las AMP que no consideraron la redistribución de especies, lo que indica una mejora en la conservación de peces bajo el cambio climático. Se sugiere que la incorporación de la redistribución de especies y las compensaciones entre las áreas con una riqueza de especies elevada y las áreas que albergan hábitats para especies raras abordarán la conservación de peces costeros bajo el cambio climático. Esta investigación proporciona información valiosa para la conservación de peces y es un precursor de la planeación sistemática de la conservación a lo largo de la costa de los mares de China.

Incorporation of human-wildlife interactions in ecosystem-based management to enhance conservation of endangered guitarfish.

Growing human use of the marine environment increases the proximity of humans to marine wildlife and thus likely increases human-wildlife interactions. Such interactions influence perceptions of nature and promote or undermine conservation. Despite their importance, human-wildlife interactions are rarely considered in ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP). Ideally, these interactions should be identified and considered in ecosystem-based management (EBM), which is often purported to be the basis for MSP. We used Marxan software and data from a citizen science project documenting location, species, age, sex, and activity type to identify regions along Israel's coast with a high probability of encounters between people and 2 species of guitarfish. We considered the geographic distribution of these encounters and the various activities undertaken by the reporting observers. We ran 4 scenarios in Marxan. Two had conservation goals of 30% and 50% guitarfish habitat protection. In the third and fourth scenarios, we added a 50% conservation goal of human leisure activities to each guitarfish conservation goal. We also conducted a gap analysis between our guitarfish conservation goals and the Israel Nature and Parks Authority's master plan for marine protected areas. We found the park authority was close to meeting the 30% goal but was far from meeting the conservation goal of 50% of guitarfish habitat conservation. Different human uses were more likely to interact with different life stages of guitarfish, and different recreational activities occurred in different areas. Identifying areas of specific human use showed which activities should be addressed in conservation management decisions. Our addition of certain recreational uses to the model of habitat conservation showed how enhancing human dimensions in conservation planning can lead to more holistic ecosystem-based conservation necessary for effective marine planning.

Incorporación de las interacciones humano­fauna dentro de la gestión basada en el ecosistema para mejorar la conservación del pez guitarra en peligro Resumen El uso creciente que el humano le da al mar incrementa la cercanía de las personas con la fauna marina, lo que probablemente incrementa las interacciones humano­fauna. Dichas interacciones influyen sobre las percepciones que se tienen de la naturaleza y promueven debilitan la conservación. A pesar de su importancia, pocas veces se consideran las relaciones humano­fauna dentro de la planeación espacial basada en ecosistemas marinos (PEM). Lo ideal debería ser la identificación y consideración de estas interacciones dentro de la gestión basada en el ecosistema (GBE), la cual con frecuencia se considera como la base de la PEM. Usamos software Marxan y datos de un proyecto de ciencia ciudadana que documenta la ubicación, especie, edad, sexo y tipo de actividad para identificar las regiones de la costa de Israel con una alta probabilidad de encuentros entre las personas y dos especies de pez guitarra. Consideramos la distribución geográfica de estos encuentros y las diferentes actividades que realizan los observadores. En Marxan corrimos cuatro escenarios. Dos de los escenarios contaban objetivos de conservación del 30% y 50% de la protección del hábitat del pez guitarra. En los otros dos escenarios, añadimos un objetivo de conservación de 50% de las actividades humanas de recreación a los objetivos uno y dos. También realizamos un análisis de brecha entre los objetivos de conservación del pez guitarra y el plan maestro para las áreas marinas protegidas de la Autoridad de Parques y Naturaleza de Israel. Descubrimos que esta autoridad estaba cerca de lograr el objetivo del 30% pero lejos del de 50% de la conservación del hábitat del pez guitarra. Fue más probable que los diferentes usos humanos interactuaran con diferentes estadios de vida del pez guitarra y las diversas actividades recreativas ocurrieron en áreas distintas. La identificación de las áreas con un uso humano específico mostró cuáles actividades deberían abordarse en las decisiones de gestión de la conservación. La suma de ciertos usos recreativos al modelo de conservación del hábitat mostró cómo aumentar las dimensiones humanas en la planeación de la conservación puede derivar en una conservación basada en el ecosistema más holística, necesaria para la planeación marina eficiente.

Global patterns of raptor distribution and protected areas optimal selection to reduce the extinction crises.

Globally, human-caused environmental impacts, such as habitat loss, have seriously impacted raptor species, with some 50% of species having decreasing populations. We analyzed global patterns of distribution of all 557 raptor species, focusing on richness, endemism, geographic range, conservation status, and population trends. Highest species diversity, endemism, species at risk, or restricted species were concentrated in different regions. Patterns of species distribution greatly differed between nocturnal and diurnal species. To test the efficiency of the global protected areas in conserving raptors, we simulated and compared global reserve systems created with strategies aiming at: 1) constraining the existing system into the final solution; and 2) minimizing the socioeconomic cost of reserve selection. We analyzed three targets of species distribution to be protected (10, 20, 30%). The first strategy was more efficient in meeting targets and less efficient in cost and compactness of reserves. Focusing on actions in the existing protected areas is fundamental to consolidate conservation, and politically and economically more viable than creating new reserves. However, creating new reserves is essential to protect more populations throughout the species' geographic range. Our findings provide a fundamental understanding of reserves to maintain raptor diversity and reduce the global population and species extinction crisis.

Effects of climate and land-cover change on the conservation status of gibbons.

Species shift their distribution in response to climate and land-cover change, which may result in a spatial mismatch between currently protected areas (PAs) and priority conservation areas (PCAs). We examined the effects of climate and land-cover change on potential range of gibbons and sought to identify PCAs that would conserve them effectively. We collected global gibbon occurrence points and modeled (ecological niche model) their current and potential 2050s ranges under climate-change and different land-cover-change scenarios. We examined change in range and PA coverage between the current and future ranges of each gibbon species. We applied spatial conservation prioritization to identify the top 30% PCAs for each species. We then determined how much of the PCAs are conserved in each country within the global range of gibbons. On average, 31% (SD 22) of each species' current range was covered in PAs. PA coverage of the current range of 9 species was <30%. Nine species lost on average 46% (SD 29) of their potential range due to climate change. Under climate-change with an optimistic land-cover-change scenario (B1), 12 species lost 39% (SD 28) of their range. In a pessimistic land-cover-change scenario (A2), 15 species lost 36% (SD 28) of their range. Five species lost significantly more range under the A2 scenario than the B1 scenario (p = 0.01, SD 0.01), suggesting that gibbons will benefit from effective management of land cover. PA coverage of future range was <30% for 11 species. On average, 32% (SD 25) of PCAs were covered by PAs. Indonesia contained more species and PCAs and thus has the greatest responsibility for gibbon conservation. Indonesia, India, and Myanmar need to expand their PAs to fulfill their responsibility to gibbon conservation. Our results provide a baseline for global gibbon conservation, particularly for countries lacking gibbon research capacity.

Las especies modifican su distribución como respuesta a los cambios en el clima y el uso de suelo, lo que puede derivar en una disparidad espacial entre las áreas protegidas (AP) y las áreas de conservación prioritarias (ACP). Analizamos los efectos del cambio en el clima y el uso de suelo sobre la distribución potencial de los gibones para identificar las ACP que lograrían su conservación exitosa. Recopilamos puntos globales de presencia de gibones y modelamos (modelo de nicho ecológico) su distribución actual y potencial para la década de 2050 bajo diferentes escenarios de cambio climático y de uso de suelo. Después exploramos los cambios en la distribución y la cobertura de las AP entre la distribución actual y a futuro de cada especie de gibón y aplicamos la priorización de la conservación espacial para identificar el mejor 30% de ACP para cada especie. Posteriormente determinamos la extensión conservada de las ACP en cada país dentro de la distribución mundial de gibones. En promedio, el 31% (DS 22) de la distribución actual de cada especie está cubierta en las AP. La distribución actual de nueve especies tiene una cobertura de áreas protegidas menor al 30%. Como promedio, nueve especies perdieron el 46% (DS 29) de su rango potencial debido al cambio climático. Bajo un escenario de cambio climático con un cambio de suelo optimista (B1), doce especies perdieron el 39% (DS 28) de su distribución. Con un escenario pesimista (A2), 15 especies perdieron el 36% (DS 28) de su distribución. Cinco especies perdieron considerablemente más distribución bajo el escenario A2 en relación con el B1 (p = 0.01, SD 0.01), lo que sugiere que los gibones se beneficiarán con la gestión efectiva de la cobertura terrestre. La cobertura dentro de las AP de la distribución futura fue < 30% para once especies. En promedio, el 32% (DS 25) de las ACP estuvo cubierto dentro de las AP. Indonesia albergó más especies y más ACP, por lo que tuvo la mayor responsabilidad en la conservación de los gibones. Indonesia, India y Myanmar necesitan expandir sus AP para cumplir con su responsabilidad en la conservación de los gibones. Nuestros resultados proporcionan una línea base para la conservación mundial de los gibones, particularmente para aquellos países que carecen de los recursos para investigarlos.

Prioritizing global tall forests toward the 30 × 30 goals.

The Global Deal for Nature sets an ambitious goal to protect 30% of Earth's land and ocean by 2030. The 30 × 30 initiative is a way to allocate conservation resources and extend protection to conserve vulnerable and underprotected ecosystems while reducing carbon emissions to combat climate change. However, most prioritization methods for identifying high-value conservation areas are based on thematic attributes and do not consider vertical habitat structure. Global tall forests represent a rare vertical habitat structure that harbors high species richness in various taxonomic groups and is associated with large amounts of aboveground biomass. Global tall forests should be prioritized when planning global protected areas toward reaching the 30 × 30 goals. We examined the spatial distribution of global tall forests based on the Global Canopy Height 2020 product. We defined global tall forests as areas with the average canopy height above 3 thresholds (20, 25, and 30 m). We quantified the spatial distribution and protection level of global tall forests in high-protection zones, where the 30 × 30 goals are being met or are within reach, and low-protection zones, where there is a low chance of reaching 30 × 30 goals. We quantified the protection level by computing the percentage of global tall forest area protected based on the 2017 World Database on Protected Areas. We also determined the global extent and protection level of undisturbed, mature, tall forests based on the 2020 Global Intact Forest Landscapes mask. In most cases, the percentage of protection decreased as forest height reached the top strata. In the low-protection zones, <30% of forests were protected in almost all tall forest strata. In countries such as Brazil, tall forests had a higher percentage of protection (consistently >30%) compared to forests of lower height, presenting a more effective conservation model than in countries such as the United States, where forest protection was almost uniformly <30% across height strata. Our results show an urgent need to target forest conservation in the greatest height strata, particularly in high-protection areas, where most global tall forests are found. Vegetation vertical structure can inform the decision-making process toward the 30 × 30 goals because it can be used to identify areas of high conservation value for biodiversity protection which also contribute to carbon sequestration.

Priorización de bosques globales altos hacia las metas 30 por 30 Resumen El Tratado Global por la Naturaleza establece una meta ambiciosa de proteger 30% de los continentes y océanos de la Tierra para 2030. La iniciativa 30 por 30 es una forma de asignar recursos para la conservación y extender la protección para conservar ecosistemas vulnerables y sin protección al tiempo que se controlan las emisiones de carbono para combatir el cambio climático. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los métodos de priorización para identificar áreas de elevado valor de conservación se basan en atributos temáticos y no consideran la estructura vertical del hábitat. Los bosques altos globales representan un estructura de hábitat vertical rara que alberga alta riqueza de especies de varios grupos taxonómicos y se asocia con grandes cantidades de biomasa aérea. Los bosques altos globales deberían ser priorizados cuando se planifican áreas protegidas globales en el esfuerzo por alcanzar las metas 30 por 30. Examinamos la distribución espacial de bosques globales con base en el producto Altura de Dosel Global 2020. Definimos a los bosques altos globales como áreas con una altura de dosel promedio por arriba de 3 umbrales (20, 25 y 30 m). Cuantificamos la distribución espacial y el nivel de protección de los bosques altos globales en zonas con gran protección, donde se están alcanzando las metas 30 por 30. Cuantificamos el nivel de protección registrando el porcentaje de bosque alto global protegido con base en la Base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas 2017. También determinamos la extensión global y el nivel de protección de bosques altos, maduros, no perturbados con base en la mascarilla Paisajes Forestales Globales Intactos 2020. En la mayoría de los casos, el porcentaje de protección decreció a medida que la altura del bosque llegaba al estrato superior. En las zonas poco protegidas, >30% de los bosques estaban protegidos en casi todos los estratos de bosque alto. En países como Brasil, los bosques altos tuvieron un mayor porcentaje de protección (>30% consistentemente) que los bosques de menor altura, presentando un modelo de conservación más efectivo que en países como los Estados Unidos, donde la protección de bosques fue casi uniformemente >30% en los tres estratos de altura. Nuestros resultados muestran una urgente necesidad de enfocar la conservación de bosques en los estratos más altos, particularmente en las áreas muy protegidas, donde se encuentra la mayoría de bosques altos globales. La estructura vertical de la vegetación puede proporcionar información al proceso de toma de decisiones con miras a las metas 30 por 30 debido a que puede ser utilizada para identificar áreas de elevado valor de conservación para la protección de la biodiversidad que también contribuya al secuestro de carbono.

Identifying climate change refugia for South American biodiversity.

Refugia-based conservation offers long-term effectiveness and minimize uncertainty on strategies for climate change adaptation. We used distribution modelling to identify climate change refugia for 617 terrestrial mammals and to quantify the role of protected areas (PAs) in providing refugia across South America. To do so, we compared species potential distribution across different scenarios of climate change, highlighting those regions likely to retain suitable climatic conditions by year 2090, and explored the proportion of refugia inside PAs. Moist tropical forests in high-elevation areas with complex topography concentrated the highest local diversity of species refugia, although regionally important refugia centers occurred elsewhere. Andean-Amazon forests contained climate change refugia for more than half of the continental species' pool and for up to 87 species locally (17 × 17 km2 grid cell). The highlands of the southern Atlantic Forest also included megadiverse refugia for up to 76 species per cell. Almost half of the species that may find refugia in the Atlantic Forest will do so in a single region-the Serra do Mar and Serra do Espinhaço. Most of the refugia we identified, however, were not in PAs, which may contain <6% of the total area of climate change refugia, leaving 129-237 species with no refugia inside the territorial limits of PAs of any kind. Our results reveal a dismal scenario for the level of refugia protection in some of the most biodiverse regions of the world. Nonetheless, because refugia tend to be in high-elevation, topographically complex, and remote areas, with lower anthropogenic pressure, formally protecting them may require a comparatively modest investment.

Identificación de refugios para la biodiversidad de Sudamérica ante el cambio climático Resumen Las estrategias de conservación basadas en refugios ofrecen efectividad a largo plazo y minimizan la incertidumbre sobre las estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático. Utilizamos modelos de distribución para identificar los refugios del cambio climático de 617 especies de mamíferos terrestres y cuantificar el papel de las áreas protegidas en la provisión de refugios en Sudamérica. Para esto, comparamos la distribución potencial de las especies en diferentes escenarios de cambio climático, destacando las regiones que probablemente conservarán las condiciones climáticas adecuadas para el año 2090, y exploramos la proporción de refugios dentro de las áreas protegidas. Los bosques tropicales húmedos de zonas de gran altitud y topografía compleja concentraron la mayor diversidad local de refugios de especies, aunque también hubo centros de refugio de importancia regional en otras localidades. Los bosques amazónicos andinos albergaron los refugios ante el cambio climático de más de la mitad del conjunto de especies continentales y para hasta 87 especies a escala local (celda cuadriculada de 17 × 17 km2 ). Las tierras altas del sur del Bosque Atlántico también incluyeron refugios megadiversos para hasta 76 especies por celda. Casi la mitad de las especies que pueden refugiarse en el Bosque Atlántico lo harán en una sola región: la Serra do Mar y la Serra do Espinhaço. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los refugios que identificamos no estaban en áreas protegidas, las cuales pueden contener <6% del área total de refugios del cambio climático, dejando entre 129 y 237 especies sin refugio dentro de los límites territoriales de las áreas protegidas de cualquier tipo. Nuestros resultados revelan un panorama desolador para el nivel de protección de los refugios en algunas de las regiones con mayor biodiversidad del mundo. No obstante, dado que los refugios suelen encontrarse en zonas remotas de gran altitud con topografía compleja y menor presión antropogénica, protegerlos formalmente puede requerir una inversión comparativamente modesta.

Spatial analysis enables priority selection in conservation practices for landscapes that need ecological security.

Global urbanization has not only promoted social and economic development, but also contributed to seriously ecological challenges. As a type of sustainable landscape patterns, ecological security pattern is considered as an effective spatial pathway to simultaneously conserve ecological security and maintain social-economic development. However, the fragmentation issue of ecological sources of ecological security pattern has not been effectively addressed, although many case studies have been conducted to identify ecological security pattern. In this study, we used spatial conservation prioritization to identify the ecological security pattern of the city belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia, China. Ecological sources were selected using Zonation model while ecological corridors and key ecological nodes were identified with circuit model. The results showed that the ecological security pattern was composed of 97 ecological sources, 226 ecological corridors, 267 pinch points and 22 barriers, covering a total area of 7713.1 km2 and accounting for 34% of the study area. Ecological sources were concentrated in the Helan Mountain, Xiang Mountain and along the Yellow River. Besides, ecological corridors were dense in the southern and eastern part of the study area. Both indicated that the Yellow River and Helan Mountain were the conservation hotspots. Landscape connectivity of ecological sources identified through Zonation-based spatial conservation prioritization was better than that with the scoring approach based on ecosystem service importance. Particularly, in the Zonation approach the landscape connectivity increased with 44% while the average patch area increased with 28% when comparing with the scoring approach. The spatial conservation prioritization approach proposed in this study provides a new effective tool to construct ecological security pattern, which is conducive to the synergic enhancement of landscape connectivity and ecosystem services conservation.

Diversity and dynamics in larval digenean assemblages parasitizing Heleobia parchappii in a freshwater shallow lake from the Southeastern Pampa plain, Argentina.

Digeneans have important roles within ecosystems; however, it is estimated that only 14% of the species have been described. Therefore, before being able to detail their role, digenean species' identification and the diversity present in the ecosystems must be known. In this study, the diversity and the temporal-spatial dynamics of larval digeneans in the freshwater snail Heleobia parchappii were analysed in a shallow lake. Specimens of H. parchappii were collected seasonally at three points during one year and a total of 2871 molluscs were analysed. A total of 23 species of digenea were registered and both the overall prevalence and the composition of the assemblages presented temporal and spatial variations, responding to the differential environmental conditions characteristics (anthropic effect, presence of native forests, and differential use of the habitat by the definitive hosts) of three sampled sites. The assemblages of larval digenean in their first intermediate host support the idea that this area is of great importance in biodiversity, and could be endemic areas of some species of digenean that use reptiles, amphibians and bats as hosts, groups that are at risk of conservation. Protection of these environments is a fundamental pillar in the policies for the conservation of wild flora and fauna.

A brief history of population genetic research in California and an evaluation of its utility for conservation decision-making.

A recently published macrogenetic dataset of California's flora and fauna, CaliPopGen, comprehensively summarizes population genetic research published between 1985 and 2020. Integrating these genetic data into the requisite "best available science" upon which conservation professionals rely should facilitate the prioritization of populations based on genetic health. We evaluate the extent to which the CaliPopGen Dataset provides genetic diversity estimates that are 1) unbiased, 2) sufficient in quantity, 3) cover entire species' ranges, and 4) include potentially adaptive loci. We identified genetic diversity estimates for 4,462 spatially referenced populations of 432 species, confirming California's rich published history of population genetics research. Most recent studies used microsatellites markers, which have uniquely high levels of variation, and estimates of all genetic metrics varied significantly across marker types. Most studies used less than 10 loci for inferences, rendering parameter estimates potentially unreliable, and covered small spatial extents that include only a fraction of the studied species' California distribution (median 16.3%). In contrast, the ongoing California Conservation Genomics Project (CCGP) aims to cover the full geographical and environmental breadth of each species' occupied habitats, and uses a consistent approach based on whole-genome data. However, the CCGP will sequence only 12% of the number of individuals, and covers only about half the evolutionary diversity, of the CaliPopGen Database. There is clearly a place in the evaluation of the genetic health of California for both approaches going forward, especially if differences among studies can be minimized, and overlap emphasized. A complementary use of both datasets is warranted to inform optimal conservation decision-making. Finally, a synopsis of the available population genetic data for California, all other US states and 241 other countries, allows us to identify states and countries for which meaningful data summaries, such as CaliPopGen, could be collated and others, which have limited published data available and are prime targets for future, empirical work.

Landscape epidemiology of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans: reconciling data limitations and conservation urgency.

Starting in 2010, rapid fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population declines in northwestern Europe heralded the emergence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), a salamander-pathogenic chytrid fungus. Bsal poses an imminent threat to global salamander diversity owing to its wide host range, high pathogenicity, and long-term persistence in ecosystems. While there is a pressing need to develop further research and conservation actions, data limitations inherent to recent pathogen emergence obscure necessary insights into Bsal disease ecology. Here, we use a hierarchical modeling framework to describe Bsal landscape epidemiology of outbreak sites in light of these methodological challenges. Using model selection and machine learning, we find that Bsal presence is associated with humid and relatively cool, stable climates. Outbreaks are generally located in areas characterized by low landscape heterogeneity and low steepness of slope. We further find an association between Bsal presence and high trail density, suggesting that human-mediated spread may increase risk for spillover between populations. We then use distribution modeling to show that favorable conditions occur in lowlands influenced by the North Sea, where increased survey effort is needed to determine how Bsal impacts local newt populations, but also in hill- and mountain ranges in northeastern France and the lower half of Germany. Finally, connectivity analyses suggest that these hill- and mountain ranges may act as stepping stones for further spread southward. Our results provide initial insight into regional environmental conditions underlying Bsal epizootics, present updated invasibility predictions for northwestern Europe, and lead us to discuss a wide variety of potential survey and research actions needed to advance future conservation and mitigation efforts.

Incorporating putatively neutral and adaptive genomic data into marine conservation planning.

The availability of genomic data for an increasing number of species makes it possible to incorporate evolutionary processes into conservation plans. Recent studies show how genetic data can inform spatial conservation prioritization (SCP), but they focus on metrics of diversity and distinctness derived primarily from neutral genetic data sets. Identifying adaptive genetic markers can provide important information regarding the capacity for populations to adapt to environmental change. Yet, the effect of including metrics based on adaptive genomic data into SCP in comparison to more widely used neutral genetic metrics has not been explored. We used existing genomic data on a commercially exploited species, the giant California sea cucumber (Parastichopus californicus), to perform SCP for the coastal region of British Columbia (BC), Canada. Using a RAD-seq data set for 717 P. californicus individuals across 24 sampling locations, we identified putatively adaptive (i.e., candidate) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) based on genotype-environment associations with seafloor temperature. We calculated various metrics for both neutral and candidate SNPs and compared SCP outcomes with independent metrics and combinations of metrics. Priority areas varied depending on whether neutral or candidate SNPs were used and on the specific metric used. For example, targeting sites with a high frequency of warm-temperature-associated alleles to support persistence under future warming prioritized areas in the southern coastal region. In contrast, targeting sites with high expected heterozygosity at candidate loci to support persistence under future environmental uncertainty prioritized areas in the north. When combining metrics, all scenarios generated intermediate solutions, protecting sites that span latitudinal and thermal gradients. Our results demonstrate that distinguishing between neutral and adaptive markers can affect conservation solutions and emphasize the importance of defining objectives when choosing among various genomic metrics for SCP.

Incorporación de Datos Genómicos Putativamente Neutros y Adaptativos dentro de la Planeación de la Conservación Marina Resumen La disponibilidad de los datos genómicos para un número creciente de especies posibilita la incorporación de los procesos evolutivos dentro de los planes de conservación. Los estudios recientes muestran cómo los datos genéticos pueden informar a la priorización de la conservación espacial (PCE) pero tienden a enfocarse más en las medidas de la diversidad y la distinción derivadas principalmente de los conjuntos de datos genéticos neutrales. La identificación de los marcadores genéticos adaptativos puede proporcionar información importante con respecto a la capacidad de las poblaciones para adaptarse al cambio ambiental. Aun así, no se ha explorado el efecto de la inclusión de las medidas basadas en los datos genéticos adaptativos dentro de la PCE y cómo se comparan con las medidas genéticas neutrales de uso más amplio. Usamos datos genómicos existentes sobre una especie de explotación comercial, el pepino de mar gigante de California (Parastichopus californicus), para realizar la PCE para la región costera de la Columbia Británica (BC) en Canadá. Usamos un conjunto de datos RAD-seq para 717 individuos de la especie P. californicus en 24 localidades de muestreo para identificar los polimorfismos de un solo nucleótido (PSNs) putativamente adaptativos (es decir, candidatos) con base en las asociaciones genotipo-ambiente manifestadas con la temperatura del fondo marino. Calculamos varias medidas para los PSNs neutrales y los PSNs candidatos y comparamos los resultados de la PCE con medidas independientes y con combinaciones de medidas. Las áreas prioritarias variaron dependiendo de si se usaron los SNP neutrales o los candidatos y de la medida específica que se utilizó. Por ejemplo, enfocarse en sitios con una frecuencia alta de alelos asociados con agua cálida para fortalecer la persistencia frente al futuro calentamiento prioriza las áreas en la región del sur de la costa. Al contrario, enfocarse en sitios con una alta heterocigosidad esperada en los loci de los candidatos para fortalecer la persistencia frente a la incertidumbre ambiental prioriza las áreas en la parte norte de la costa. Cuando combinamos las medidas, todos los escenarios generaron soluciones intermedias, protegiendo así los sitios que abarcan gradientes latitudinales y gradientes térmicos. Nuestros resultados demuestran que la distinción entre los marcadores neutrales y los adaptativos puede afectar las soluciones de conservación y también enfatizan la importancia de la definición de los objetivos cuando se elige entre varias medidas genómicas para la PCE.

Software for prioritizing conservation actions based on probabilistic information.

Marxan is the most common decision-support tool used to inform the design of protected-area systems. The original version of Marxan does not consider risk and uncertainty associated with threatening processes affecting protected areas, including uncertainty about the location and condition of species' populations and habitats now and in the future. We described and examined the functionality of a modified version of Marxan, Marxan with Probability. This software explicitly considers 4 types of uncertainty: probability that a feature exists in a particular place (estimated based on species distribution models or spatially explicit population models); probability that features in a site will be lost in the future due to a threatening process, such as climate change, natural catastrophes, and uncontrolled human interventions; probability that a feature will exist in the future due to natural successional processes, such as a fire or flood; and probability the feature exists but has been degraded by threatening processes, such as overfishing or pollution, and thus cannot contribute to conservation goals. We summarized the results of 5 studies that illustrate how each type of uncertainty can be used to inform protected area design. If there were uncertainty in species or habitat distribution, users could maximize the chance that these features were represented by including uncertainty using Marxan with Probability. Similarly, if threatening processes were considered, users minimized the chance that species or habitats were lost or degraded by using Marxan with Probability. Marxan with Probability opens up substantial new avenues for systematic conservation planning research and application by agencies.

Marxan es la herramienta de apoyo a las decisiones que más comúnmente se usa para orientar el diseño de los sistemas de áreas protegidas. La versión original de Marxan no considera el riesgo y la incertidumbre asociados con los procesos amenazantes que afectan a las áreas protegidas, incluyendo la incertidumbre sobre la ubicación y la condición de las poblaciones de las especies y su hábitat ahora y en el futuro. Describimos y analizamos la funcionalidad de una versión modificada de Marxan: Marxan con Probabilidad. Este software considera explícitamente cuatro tipos de incertidumbre: probabilidad de que una característica exista en un lugar en particular (estimada con base en los modelos de distribución de especies o con modelos de población espacialmente explícitos); probabilidad de que las características de un sitio se pierdan en el futuro debido a un proceso amenazante, como el cambio climático, las catástrofes naturales y las intervenciones humanas descontroladas; probabilidad de que una característica existirá en el futuro debido a los procesos naturales de sucesión; como los incendios o las inundaciones; y probabilidad de que una característica exista pero haya sido degradada por los procesos amenazantes, como la sobrepesca y la contaminación, y por lo tanto no puede contribuir a los objetivos de conservación. Sintetizamos los resultados de cinco estudios que ilustraron cómo cada tipo de incertidumbre puede usarse para orientar el diseño del área protegida. Si hubiera incertidumbre en la distribución de la especie o de su hábitat, los usuarios podrían maximizar la posibilidad de que estas características estuvieran representadas mediante la inclusión de Marxan con Probabilidad. De manera similar, si los procesos amenazantes estuvieran considerados, los usuarios minimizarían la posibilidad de que se pierda la especie o degrade el hábitat usando Marxan con Probabilidad. Marxan con Probabilidad abre nuevas vías importantes para la investigación sobre la planeación sistemática de la conservación y su aplicación por parte de las agencias.

Global human influence maps reveal clear opportunities in conserving Earth's remaining intact terrestrial ecosystems.

Leading up to the Convention on Biological Diversity Conference of the Parties 15, there is momentum around setting bold conservation targets. Yet, it remains unclear how much of Earth's land area remains without significant human influence and where this land is located. We compare four recent global maps of human influences across Earth's land, Anthromes, Global Human Modification, Human Footprint and Low Impact Areas, to answer these questions. Despite using various methodologies and data, these different spatial assessments independently estimate similar percentages of the Earth's terrestrial surface as having very low (20%-34%) and low (48%-56%) human influence. Three out of four spatial assessments agree on 46% of the non-permanent ice- or snow-covered land as having low human influence. However, much of the very low and low influence portions of the planet are comprised of cold (e.g., boreal forests, montane grasslands and tundra) or arid (e.g., deserts) landscapes. Only four biomes (boreal forests, deserts, temperate coniferous forests and tundra) have a majority of datasets agreeing that at least half of their area has very low human influence. More concerning, <1% of temperate grasslands, tropical coniferous forests and tropical dry forests have very low human influence across most datasets, and tropical grasslands, mangroves and montane grasslands also have <1% of land identified as very low influence across all datasets. These findings suggest that about half of Earth's terrestrial surface has relatively low human influence and offers opportunities for proactive conservation actions to retain the last intact ecosystems on the planet. However, though the relative abundance of ecosystem areas with low human influence varies widely by biome, conserving these last intact areas should be a high priority before they are completely lost.

Global priorities for conservation across multiple dimensions of mammalian diversity.

Conservation priorities that are based on species distribution, endemism, and vulnerability may underrepresent biologically unique species as well as their functional roles and evolutionary histories. To ensure that priorities are biologically comprehensive, multiple dimensions of diversity must be considered. Further, understanding how the different dimensions relate to one another spatially is important for conservation prioritization, but the relationship remains poorly understood. Here, we use spatial conservation planning to (i) identify and compare priority regions for global mammal conservation across three key dimensions of biodiversity-taxonomic, phylogenetic, and traits-and (ii) determine the overlap of these regions with the locations of threatened species and existing protected areas. We show that priority areas for mammal conservation exhibit low overlap across the three dimensions, highlighting the need for an integrative approach for biodiversity conservation. Additionally, currently protected areas poorly represent the three dimensions of mammalian biodiversity. We identify areas of high conservation priority among and across the dimensions that should receive special attention for expanding the global protected area network. These high-priority areas, combined with areas of high priority for other taxonomic groups and with social, economic, and political considerations, provide a biological foundation for future conservation planning efforts.

Conservation triage or injurious neglect in endangered species recovery.

Listing endangered and threatened species under the US Endangered Species Act is presumed to offer a defense against extinction and a solution to achieve recovery of imperiled populations, but only if effective conservation action ensues after listing occurs. The amount of government funding available for species protection and recovery is one of the best predictors of successful recovery; however, government spending is both insufficient and highly disproportionate among groups of species, and there is significant discrepancy between proposed and actualized budgets across species. In light of an increasing list of imperiled species requiring evaluation and protection, an explicit approach to allocating recovery funds is urgently needed. Here I provide a formal decision-theoretic approach focusing on return on investment as an objective and a transparent mechanism to achieve the desired recovery goals. I found that less than 25% of the $1.21 billion/year needed for implementing recovery plans for 1,125 species is actually allocated to recovery. Spending in excess of the recommended recovery budget does not necessarily translate into better conservation outcomes. Rather, elimination of only the budget surplus for "costly yet futile" recovery plans can provide sufficient funding to erase funding deficits for more than 180 species. Triage by budget compression provides better funding for a larger sample of species, and a larger sample of adequately funded recovery plans should produce better outcomes even if by chance. Sharpening our focus on deliberate decision making offers the potential to achieve desired outcomes in avoiding extinction for Endangered Species Act-listed species.

Navigating protected areas networks for improving diffusion of conservation practices.

The Natura 2000 protected area network is the cornerstone of European Union's biodiversity conservation strategy. These protected areas range across multiple biogeographic regions, and they include a diversity of species assemblages along with a diversity of managing organizations, altogether making difficult to pool relevant sites to facilitate the flow of knowledge significant to their management. Here we introduce an approach to navigating protected area networks that has the potential to foster systematic identification of key sites for facilitating the exchange of knowledge and diffusion of information within the network. To demonstrate our approach, we abstractly represented Romanian Natura 2000 network as a co-occurrence network, with individual sites as nodes and shared species as edges, further combining into our analysis network topology, community detection, and network reduction methods. We identified most representative Natura 2000 sites that may increase the transfer of information within the national network of protected areas, detected clusters of sites and key sites for maintaining network cohesiveness, and highlighted the subsample of sites that retain the characteristics of the entire network. Our analysis provides implications for protected area prioritization by proposing a network perspective approach to collaboration rooted in ecological principles.

Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available.

Using a social-ecological framework to inform the implementation of conservation plans.

One of the key determinants of success in biodiversity conservation is how well conservation planning decisions account for the social system in which actions are to be implemented. Understanding elements of how the social and ecological systems interact can help identify opportunities for implementation. Utilizing data from a large-scale conservation initiative in southwestern of Australia, we explored how a social-ecological system framework can be applied to identify how social and ecological factors interact to influence the opportunities for conservation. Using data from semistructured interviews, an online survey, and publicly available data, we developed a conceptual model of the social-ecological system associated with the conservation of the Fitz-Stirling region. We used this model to identify the relevant variables (remnants of vegetation, stakeholder presence, collaboration between stakeholders, and their scale of management) that affect the implementation of conservation actions in the region. We combined measures for these variables to ascertain how areas associated with different levels of ecological importance coincided with areas associated with different levels of stakeholder presence, stakeholder collaboration, and scales of management. We identified areas that could benefit from different implementation strategies, from those suitable for immediate conservation action to areas requiring implementation over the long term to increase on-the-ground capacity and identify mechanisms to incentivize implementation. The application of a social-ecological framework can help conservation planners and practitioners facilitate the integration of ecological and social data to inform the translation of priorities for action into implementation strategies that account for the complexities of conservation problems in a focused way.

Expanding Kenya's protected areas under the Convention on Biological Diversity to maximize coverage of plant diversity.

Biodiversity is highly valuable and critically threatened by anthropogenic degradation of the natural environment. In response, governments have pledged enhanced protected-area coverage, which requires scarce biological data to identify conservation priorities. To assist this effort, we mapped conservation priorities in Kenya based on maximizing alpha (species richness) and beta diversity (species turnover) of plant communities while minimizing economic costs. We used plant-cover percentages from vegetation surveys of over 2000 plots to build separate models for each type of diversity. Opportunity and management costs were based on literature data and interviews with conservation organizations. Species richness was predicted to be highest in a belt from Lake Turkana through Mount Kenya and in a belt parallel to the coast, and species turnover was predicted to be highest in western Kenya and along the coast. Our results suggest the expanding reserve network should focus on the coast and northeastern provinces of Kenya, where new biological surveys would also fill biological data gaps. Meeting the Convention on Biological Diversity target of 17% terrestrial coverage by 2020 would increase representation of Kenya's plant communities by 75%. However, this would require about 50 times more funds than Kenya has received thus far from the Global Environment Facility.

Applying the dark diversity concept to nature conservation.

Linking diversity to biological processes is central for developing informed and effective conservation decisions. Unfortunately, observable patterns provide only a proportion of the information necessary for fully understanding the mechanisms and processes acting on a particular population or community. We suggest conservation managers use the often overlooked information relative to species absences and pay particular attention to dark diversity (i.e., a set of species that are absent from a site but that could disperse to and establish there, in other words, the absent portion of a habitat-specific species pool). Together with existing ecological metrics, concepts, and conservation tools, dark diversity can be used to complement and further develop conservation prioritization and management decisions through an understanding of biodiversity relativized by its potential (i.e., its species pool). Furthermore, through a detailed understanding of the population, community, and functional dark diversity, the restoration potential of degraded habitats can be more rigorously assessed and so to the likelihood of successful species invasions. We suggest the application of the dark diversity concept is currently an underappreciated source of information that is valuable for conservation applications ranging from macroscale conservation prioritization to more locally scaled restoration ecology and the management of invasive species.