Combined effects of warming and drought on plant biomass depend on plant woodiness and community type: a meta-analysis.

Global warming and precipitation extremes (drought or increased precipitation) strongly affect plant primary production and thereby terrestrial ecosystem functioning. Recent syntheses show that combined effects of warming and precipitation extremes on plant biomass are generally additive, while individual experiments often show interactive effects, indicating that combined effects are more negative or positive than expected based on the effects of single factors. Here, we examined whether variation in biomass responses to single and combined effects of warming and precipitation extremes can be explained by plant growth form and community type. We performed a meta-analysis of 37 studies, which experimentally crossed warming and precipitation treatments, to test whether biomass responses to combined effects of warming and precipitation extremes depended on plant woodiness and community type (monocultures versus mixtures). Our results confirmed that the effects of warming and precipitation extremes were overall additive. However, combined effects of warming and drought on above- and belowground biomass were less negative in woody- than in herbaceous plant systems and more negative in plant mixtures than in monocultures. We further show that drought effects on plant biomass were more negative in greenhouse, than in field studies, suggesting that greenhouse experiments may overstate drought effects in the field. Our results highlight the importance of plant system characteristics to better understand plant responses to climate change.

Global change effects on plant communities are magnified by time and the number of global change factors imposed.

Global change drivers (GCDs) are expected to alter community structure and consequently, the services that ecosystems provide. Yet, few experimental investigations have examined effects of GCDs on plant community structure across multiple ecosystem types, and those that do exist present conflicting patterns. In an unprecedented global synthesis of over 100 experiments that manipulated factors linked to GCDs, we show that herbaceous plant community responses depend on experimental manipulation length and number of factors manipulated. We found that plant communities are fairly resistant to experimentally manipulated GCDs in the short term (<10 y). In contrast, long-term (≥10 y) experiments show increasing community divergence of treatments from control conditions. Surprisingly, these community responses occurred with similar frequency across the GCD types manipulated in our database. However, community responses were more common when 3 or more GCDs were simultaneously manipulated, suggesting the emergence of additive or synergistic effects of multiple drivers, particularly over long time periods. In half of the cases, GCD manipulations caused a difference in community composition without a corresponding species richness difference, indicating that species reordering or replacement is an important mechanism of community responses to GCDs and should be given greater consideration when examining consequences of GCDs for the biodiversity-ecosystem function relationship. Human activities are currently driving unparalleled global changes worldwide. Our analyses provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that these human activities may have widespread impacts on plant community composition globally, which will increase in frequency over time and be greater in areas where communities face multiple GCDs simultaneously.

Determinants of community compositional change are equally affected by global change.

Global change is impacting plant community composition, but the mechanisms underlying these changes are unclear. Using a dataset of 58 global change experiments, we tested the five fundamental mechanisms of community change: changes in evenness and richness, reordering, species gains and losses. We found 71% of communities were impacted by global change treatments, and 88% of communities that were exposed to two or more global change drivers were impacted. Further, all mechanisms of change were equally likely to be affected by global change treatments-species losses and changes in richness were just as common as species gains and reordering. We also found no evidence of a progression of community changes, for example, reordering and changes in evenness did not precede species gains and losses. We demonstrate that all processes underlying plant community composition changes are equally affected by treatments and often occur simultaneously, necessitating a wholistic approach to quantifying community changes.

A hierarchical, multivariate meta-analysis approach to synthesising global change experiments.

Meta-analyses enable synthesis of results from globally distributed experiments to draw general conclusions about the impacts of global change factors on ecosystem function. Traditional meta-analyses, however, are challenged by the complexity and diversity of experimental results. We illustrate how several key issues can be addressed by a multivariate, hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis (MHBM) approach applied to information extracted from published studies. We applied an MHBM to log-response ratios for aboveground biomass (AB, n = 300), belowground biomass (BB, n = 205) and soil CO2 exchange (SCE, n = 544), representing 100 studies. The MHBM accounted for study duration, climate effects and covariation among the AB, BB and SCE responses to elevated CO2 (eCO2 ) and/or warming. The MHBM revealed significant among-study covariation in the AB and BB responses to experimental treatments. The MHBM imputed missing duration (4.2%) and climate (6%) data, and revealed that climate context governs how eCO2 and warming impact ecosystem function. Predictions identified biomes that may be particularly sensitive to eCO2 or warming, but that are under-represented in global change experiments. The MHBM approach offers a flexible and powerful tool for synthesising disparate experimental results reported across multiple studies, sites and response variables.

Do trade-offs govern plant species' responses to different global change treatments?

Plants are subject to trade-offs among growth strategies such that adaptations for optimal growth in one condition can preclude optimal growth in another. Thus, we predicted that a plant species that responds positively to one global change treatment would be less likely than average to respond positively to another treatment, particularly for pairs of treatments that favor distinct traits. We examined plant species' abundances in 39 global change experiments manipulating two or more of the following: CO2 , nitrogen, phosphorus, water, temperature, or disturbance. Overall, the directional response of a species to one treatment was 13% more likely than expected to oppose its response to a another single-factor treatment. This tendency was detectable across the global data set, but held little predictive power for individual treatment combinations or within individual experiments. Although trade-offs in the ability to respond to different global change treatments exert discernible global effects, other forces obscure their influence in local communities.