Adaptive evolution of the enigmatic Takakia now facing climate change in Tibet.

The most extreme environments are the most vulnerable to transformation under a rapidly changing climate. These ecosystems harbor some of the most specialized species, which will likely suffer the highest extinction rates. We document the steepest temperature increase (2010-2021) on record at altitudes of above 4,000 m, triggering a decline of the relictual and highly adapted moss Takakia lepidozioides. Its de-novo-sequenced genome with 27,467 protein-coding genes includes distinct adaptations to abiotic stresses and comprises the largest number of fast-evolving genes under positive selection. The uplift of the study site in the last 65 million years has resulted in life-threatening UV-B radiation and drastically reduced temperatures, and we detected several of the molecular adaptations of Takakia to these environmental changes. Surprisingly, specific morphological features likely occurred earlier than 165 mya in much warmer environments. Following nearly 400 million years of evolution and resilience, this species is now facing extinction.

Real-time emulation of future global warming reveals realistic impacts on the phenological response and quality deterioration in rice.

Decreased production of crops due to climate change has been predicted scientifically. While climate-resilient crops are necessary to ensure food security and support sustainable agriculture, predicting crop growth under future global warming is challenging. Therefore, we aimed to assess the impact of realistic global warming conditions on rice cultivation. We developed a crop evaluation platform, the agro-environment (AE) emulator, which generates diverse environments by implementing the complexity of natural environmental fluctuations in customized, fully artificial lighting growth chambers. We confirmed that the environmental responsiveness of rice obtained in the fluctuation of artificial environments is similar to those exhibited in natural environments by validating our AE emulator using publicly available meteorological data from multiple years at the same location and multiple locations in the same year. Based on the representative concentration pathway, real-time emulation of severe global warming unveiled dramatic advances in the rice life cycle, accompanied by a 35% decrease in grain yield and an 85% increase in quality deterioration, which is higher than the recently reported projections. The transcriptome dynamism showed that increasing temperature and CO2 concentrations synergistically changed the expression of various genes and strengthened the induction of flowering, heat stress adaptation, and CO2 response genes. The predicted severe global warming greatly alters rice environmental adaptability and negatively impacts rice production. Our findings offer innovative applications of artificial environments and insights for enhancing varietal potential and cultivation methods in the future.

Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity.

The observed rate of global warming since the 1970s has been proposed as a strong constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR)-key metrics of the global climate response to greenhouse-gas forcing. Using CMIP5/6 models, we show that the inter-model relationship between warming and these climate sensitivity metrics (the basis for the constraint) arises from a similarity in transient and equilibrium warming patterns within the models, producing an effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) governing recent warming that is comparable to the value of ECS governing long-term warming under CO[Formula: see text] forcing. However, CMIP5/6 historical simulations do not reproduce observed warming patterns. When driven by observed patterns, even high ECS models produce low EffCS values consistent with the observed global warming rate. The inability of CMIP5/6 models to reproduce observed warming patterns thus results in a bias in the modeled relationship between recent global warming and climate sensitivity. Correcting for this bias means that observed warming is consistent with wide ranges of ECS and TCR extending to higher values than previously recognized. These findings are corroborated by energy balance model simulations and coupled model (CESM1-CAM5) simulations that better replicate observed patterns via tropospheric wind nudging or Antarctic meltwater fluxes. Because CMIP5/6 models fail to simulate observed warming patterns, proposed warming-based constraints on ECS, TCR, and projected global warming are biased low. The results reinforce recent findings that the unique pattern of observed warming has slowed global-mean warming over recent decades and that how the pattern will evolve in the future represents a major source of uncertainty in climate projections.

The dawn of the tropical Atlantic invasion into the Mediterranean Sea.

The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hotspot already affected by climate-driven biodiversity collapses. Its highly endemic fauna is at further risk if global warming triggers an invasion of tropical Atlantic species. Here, we combine modern species occurrences with a unique paleorecord from the Last Interglacial (135 to 116 ka), a conservative analog of future climate, to model the future distribution of an exemplary subset of tropical West African mollusks, currently separated from the Mediterranean by cold upwelling off north-west Africa. We show that, already under an intermediate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) by 2050, climatic connectivity along north-west Africa may allow tropical species to colonize a by then largely environmentally suitable Mediterranean. The worst-case scenario RCP 8.5 leads to a fully tropicalized Mediterranean by 2100. The tropical Atlantic invasion will add to the ongoing Indo-Pacific invasion through the Suez Canal, irreversibly transforming the entire Mediterranean into a novel ecosystem unprecedented in human history.

An evolutionary innovation for mating facilitates ecological niche expansion and buffers species against climate change.

One of the drivers of life's diversification has been the emergence of "evolutionary innovations": The evolution of traits that grant access to underused ecological niches. Since ecological interactions can occur separately from mating, mating-related traits have not traditionally been considered factors in niche evolution. However, in order to persist in their environment, animals need to successfully mate just as much as they need to survive. Innovations that facilitate mating activity may therefore be an overlooked determinant of species' ecological limits. Here, we show that species' historical niches and responses to contemporary climate change are shaped by an innovation involved in mating-a waxy, ultra-violet-reflective pruinescence produced by male dragonflies. Physiological experiments in two species demonstrate that pruinescence reduces heating and water loss. Phylogenetic analyses show that pruinescence is gained after taxa begin adopting a thermohydrically stressful mating behavior. Further comparative analyses reveal that pruinose species are more likely to breed in exposed, open-canopy microhabitats. Biogeographic analyses uncover that pruinose species occupy warmer and drier regions in North America. Citizen-science observations of Pachydiplax longipennis suggest that the extent of pruinescence can be optimized to match the local conditions. Finally, temporal analyses indicate that pruinose species have been buffered against contemporary climate change. Overall, these historical and contemporary patterns show that successful mating can shape species' niche limits in the same way as growth and survival.

Constraints on regional projections of mean and extreme precipitation under warming.

The projected changes in the hydrological cycle under global warming remain highly uncertain across current climate models. Here, we demonstrate that the observational past warming trend can be utilized to effectively co1nstrain future projections in mean and extreme precipitation on both global and regional scales. The physical basis for such constraints relies on the relatively constant climate sensitivity in individual models and the reasonable consistency of regional hydrological sensitivity among the models, which is dominated and regulated by the increases in atmospheric moisture. For the high-emission scenario, on the global average, the projected changes in mean precipitation are lowered from 6.9 to 5.2% and those in extreme precipitation from 24.5 to 18.1%, with the inter-model variances reduced by 31.0 and 22.7%, respectively. Moreover, the constraint can be applied to regions in middle-to-high latitudes, particularly over land. These constraints result in spatially resolved corrections that deviate substantially and inhomogeneously from the global mean corrections. This study provides regionally constrained hydrological responses over the globe, with direct implications for climate adaptation in specific areas.

Warming may offset impact of precipitation changes on riverine nitrogen loading.

Climate change, especially in the form of precipitation and temperature changes, can alter the transformation and delivery of nitrogen on the land surface and to aquatic systems, impacting the trophic states of downstream water bodies. While the expected impacts of changes in precipitation have been explored, a quantitative understanding of the impact of temperature on nitrogen loading is lacking at landscape scales. Here, using several decades of nitrogen loading observations, we quantify how individual and combined future changes in precipitation and temperature will affect riverine nitrogen loading. We find that, contrary to recent decades, rising temperatures are likely to offset or even reverse previously reported impacts of future increases in total and extreme precipitation on nitrogen runoff across the majority of the contiguous United States. These findings highlight the multifaceted impacts of climate change on the global nitrogen cycle.

Ozonolysis can produce long-lived greenhouse gases from commercial refrigerants.

Hydrofluoroolefins are being adopted as sustainable alternatives to long-lived fluorine- and chlorine-containing gases and are finding current or potential mass-market applications as refrigerants, among a myriad of other uses. Their olefinic bond affords relatively rapid reaction with hydroxyl radicals present in the atmosphere, leading to short lifetimes and proportionally small global warming potentials. However, this type of functionality also allows reaction with ozone, and whilst these reactions are slow, we show that the products of these reactions can be extremely long-lived. Our chamber measurements show that several industrially important hydrofluoroolefins produce CHF3 (fluoroform, HFC-23), a potent, long-lived greenhouse gas. When this process is accounted for in atmospheric chemical and transport modeling simulations, we find that the total radiative effect of certain compounds can be several times that of the direct radiative effect currently recommended by the World Meteorological Organization. Our supporting quantum chemical calculations indicate that a large range of exothermicity is exhibited in the initial stages of ozonolysis, which has a powerful influence on the CHF3 yield. Furthermore, we identify certain molecular configurations that preclude the formation of long-lived greenhouse gases. This demonstrates the importance of product quantification and ozonolysis kinetics in determining the overall environmental impact of hydrofluoroolefin emissions.

Respiration-driven methanotrophic growth of diverse marine methanogens.

Anaerobic marine environments are the third largest producer of the greenhouse gas methane. The release to the atmosphere is prevented by anaerobic 'methanotrophic archaea (ANME) dependent on a symbiotic association with sulfate-reducing bacteria or direct reduction of metal oxides. Metagenomic analyses of ANME are consistent with a reverse methanogenesis pathway, although no wild-type isolates have been available for validation and biochemical investigation. Herein is reported the characterization of methanotrophic growth for the diverse marine methanogens Methanosarcina acetivorans C2A and Methanococcoides orientis sp. nov. Growth was dependent on reduction of either ferrihydrite or humic acids revealing a respiratory mode of energy conservation. Acetate and/or formate were end products. Reversal of the well-characterized methanogenic pathways is remarkably like the consensus pathways for uncultured ANME based on extensive metagenomic analyses.

An upper bound for extreme temperatures over midlatitude land.

Heatwaves damage societies worldwide and are intensifying with global warming. Several mechanistic drivers of heatwaves, such as atmospheric blocking and soil moisture-atmosphere feedback, are well-known for their ability to raise surface air temperature. However, what limits the maximum surface air temperature in heatwaves remains unclear; this became evident during recent Northern Hemisphere heatwaves which achieved temperatures far beyond the upper tail of the observed statistical distribution. Here, we present evidence for the hypothesis that convective instability limits annual maximum surface air temperatures (TXx) over midlatitude land. We provide a theory for the corresponding upper bound of midlatitude temperatures, which accurately describes the observed relationship between temperatures at the surface and in the midtroposphere. We show that known heatwave drivers shift the position of the atmospheric state in the phase space described by the theory, changing its proximity to the upper bound. This theory suggests that the upper bound for midlatitude TXx should increase 1.9 times as fast as 500-hPa temperatures at the time and location of TXx occurrences. Using empirical 500-hPa warming, we project that the upper bound of TXx over Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land (40°N to 65°N) will increase about twice as fast as global mean surface air temperature, and TXx will increase faster than this bound over regions that dry on the hottest days.

Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached.

Leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on climate model output, we use the spatial pattern of historical temperature observations to predict the time until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Although no observations are used during the training, validation, or testing, the ANNs accurately predict the timing of historical global warming from maps of historical annual temperature. The central estimate for the 1.5 °C global warming threshold is between 2033 and 2035, including a ±1σ range of 2028 to 2039 in the Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) climate forcing scenario, consistent with previous assessments. However, our data-driven approach also suggests a substantial probability of exceeding the 2 °C threshold even in the Low (SSP1-2.6) climate forcing scenario. While there are limitations to our approach, our results suggest a higher likelihood of reaching 2 °C in the Low scenario than indicated in some previous assessments-though the possibility that 2 °C could be avoided is not ruled out. Explainable AI methods reveal that the ANNs focus on particular geographic regions to predict the time until the global threshold is reached. Our framework provides a unique, data-driven approach for quantifying the signal of climate change in historical observations and for constraining the uncertainty in climate model projections. Given the substantial existing evidence of accelerating risks to natural and human systems at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, our results provide further evidence for high-impact climate change over the next three decades.

The impact of multifactorial stress combination on plants, crops, and ecosystems: how should we prepare for what comes next?

The complexity of environmental conditions encountered by plants in the field, or in nature, is gradually increasing due to anthropogenic activities that promote global warming, climate change, and increased levels of pollutants. While in the past it seemed sufficient to study how plants acclimate to one or even two different stresses affecting them simultaneously, the complex conditions developing on our planet necessitate a new approach of studying stress in plants: Acclimation to multiple stress conditions occurring concurrently or consecutively (termed, multifactorial stress combination [MFSC]). In an initial study of the plant response to MFSC, conducted with Arabidopsis thaliana seedlings subjected to an MFSC of six different abiotic stresses, it was found that with the increase in the number and complexity of different stresses simultaneously impacting a plant, plant growth and survival declined, even if the effects of each stress involved in such MFSC on the plant was minimal or insignificant. In three recent studies, conducted with different crop plants, MFSC was found to have similar effects on a commercial rice cultivar, a maize hybrid, tomato, and soybean, causing significant reductions in growth, biomass, physiological parameters, and/or yield traits. As the environmental conditions on our planet are gradually worsening, as well as becoming more complex, addressing MFSC and its effects on agriculture and ecosystems worldwide becomes a high priority. In this review, we address the effects of MFSC on plants, crops, agriculture, and different ecosystems worldwide, and highlight potential avenues to enhance the resilience of crops to MFSC.

The impact of multifactorial stress combination on reproductive tissues and grain yield of a crop plant.

Global warming, climate change, and industrial pollution are altering our environment subjecting plants, microbiomes, and ecosystems to an increasing number and complexity of abiotic stress conditions, concurrently or sequentially. These conditions, termed, "multifactorial stress combination" (MFSC), can cause a significant decline in plant growth and survival. However, the impacts of MFSC on reproductive tissues and yield of major crop plants are largely unknown. We subjected soybean (Glycine max) plants to a MFSC of up to five different stresses (water deficit, salinity, low phosphate, acidity, and cadmium), in an increasing level of complexity, and conducted integrative transcriptomic-phenotypic analysis of their reproductive and vegetative tissues. We reveal that MFSC has a negative cumulative effect on soybean yield, that each set of MFSC condition elicits a unique transcriptomic response (that is different between flowers and leaves), and that selected genes expressed in leaves or flowers of soybean are linked to the effects of MFSC on different vegetative, physiological, and/or reproductive parameters. Our study identified networks and pathways associated with reactive oxygen species, ascorbic acid and aldarate, and iron/copper signaling/metabolism as promising targets for future biotechnological efforts to augment the resilience of reproductive tissues of major crop plants to MFSC. In addition, we provide unique phenotypic and transcriptomic datasets for dissecting the mechanistic effects of MFSC on the vegetative, physiological, and reproductive processes of a crop plant.

Warming temperatures drive at least half of the magnitude of long-term trait changes in European birds.

SignificanceClimate change is impacting wild populations, but its relative importance compared to other causes of change is still unclear. Many studies assume that changes in traits primarily reflect effects of climate change, but this assumption is rarely tested. We show that in European birds global warming was likely the single most important contributor to temporal trends in laying date, body condition, and offspring number. However, nontemperature factors were also important and acted in the same direction, implying that attributing temporal trends solely to rising temperatures overestimates the impact of climate warming. Differences among species in the amount of trait change were predominantly determined by these nontemperature effects, suggesting that species differences are not due to variation in sensitivity to temperature.

Isotopic filtering reveals high sensitivity of planktic calcifiers to Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum warming and acidification.

Ocean warming and acidification driven by anthropogenic carbon emissions pose an existential threat to marine calcifying communities. A similar perturbation to global carbon cycling and ocean chemistry occurred ∼56 Ma during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), but microfossil records of the marine biotic response are distorted by sediment mixing. Here, we use the carbon isotope excursion marking the PETM to distinguish planktic foraminifer shells calcified during the PETM from those calcified prior to the event and then isotopically filter anachronous specimens from the PETM microfossil assemblages. We find that nearly one-half of foraminifer shells in a deep-sea PETM record from the central Pacific (Ocean Drilling Program Site 865) are reworked contaminants. Contrary to previous interpretations, corrected assemblages reveal a transient but significant decrease in tropical planktic foraminifer diversity at this open-ocean site during the PETM. The decrease in local diversity was caused by extirpation of shallow- and deep-dwelling taxa as they underwent extratropical migrations in response to heat stress, with one prominent lineage showing signs of impaired calcification possibly due to ocean acidification. An absence of subbotinids in the corrected assemblages suggests that ocean deoxygenation may have rendered thermocline depths uninhabitable for some deeper-dwelling taxa. Latitudinal range shifts provided a rapid-response survival mechanism for tropical planktic foraminifers during the PETM, but the rapidity of ocean warming and acidification projected for the coming centuries will likely strain the adaptability of these resilient calcifiers.

Trends in surface equivalent potential temperature: A more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes.

Trends in surface air temperature (SAT) are a common metric for global warming. Using observations and observationally driven models, we show that a more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes is the trend in surface equivalent potential temperature (Thetae_sfc) since it also accounts for the increase in atmospheric humidity and latent energy. From 1980 to 2019, while SAT increased by 0.79[Formula: see text], Thetae_sfc increased by 1.48[Formula: see text] globally and as much as 4[Formula: see text] in the tropics. The increase in water vapor is responsible for the factor of 2 difference between SAT and Thetae_sfc trends. Thetae_sfc increased more uniformly (than SAT) between the midlatitudes of the southern hemisphere and the northern hemisphere, revealing the global nature of the heating added by greenhouse gases (GHGs). Trends in heat extremes and extreme precipitation are correlated strongly with the global/tropical trends in Thetae_sfc. The tropical amplification of Thetae_sfc is as large as the arctic amplification of SAT, accounting for the observed global positive trends in deep convection and a 20% increase in heat extremes. With unchecked GHG emissions, while SAT warming can reach 4.8[Formula: see text] by 2100, the global mean Thetae_sfc can increase by as much as 12[Formula: see text], with corresponding increases of 12[Formula: see text] (median) to 24[Formula: see text] (5% of grid points) in land surface temperature extremes, a 14- to 30-fold increase in frequency of heat extremes, a 40% increase in the energy available for tropical deep convection, and an up to 60% increase in extreme precipitation.

Marine anoxia linked to abrupt global warming during Earth's penultimate icehouse.

Piecing together the history of carbon (C) perturbation events throughout Earth's history has provided key insights into how the Earth system responds to abrupt warming. Previous studies, however, focused on short-term warming events that were superimposed on longer-term greenhouse climate states. Here, we present an integrated proxy (C and uranium [U] isotopes and paleo CO2) and multicomponent modeling approach to investigate an abrupt C perturbation and global warming event (∼304 Ma) that occurred during a paleo-glacial state. We report pronounced negative C and U isotopic excursions coincident with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 partial pressure and a biodiversity nadir. The isotopic excursions can be linked to an injection of ∼9,000 Gt of organic matter­derived C over ∼300 kyr and to near 20% of areal extent of seafloor anoxia. Earth system modeling indicates that widespread anoxic conditions can be linked to enhanced thermocline stratification and increased nutrient fluxes during this global warming within an icehouse.

Carbon mineralization with concurrent critical metal recovery from olivine.

Carbon dioxide utilization for enhanced metal recovery (EMR) during mineralization has been recently developed as part of CCUS (carbon capture, utilization, and storage). This paper describes fundamental studies on integrating CO2 mineralization and concurrent selective metal extraction from natural olivine. Nearly 90% of nickel and cobalt extraction and mineral carbonation efficiency are achieved in a highly selective, single-step process. Direct aqueous mineral carbonation releases Ni2+ and Co2+ into aqueous solution for subsequent recovery, while Mg2+ and Fe2+ simultaneously convert to stable mineral carbonates for permanent CO2 storage. This integrated process can be completed in neutral aqueous solution. Introduction of a metal-complexing ligand during mineral carbonation aids the highly selective extraction of Ni and Co over Fe and Mg. The ligand must have higher stability for Ni-/Co- complex ions compared with the Fe(II)-/Mg- complex ions and divalent metal carbonates. This single-step process with a suitable metal-complexing ligand is robust and utilizes carbonation processes under various kinetic regimes. This fundamental study provides a framework for further development and successful application of direct aqueous mineral carbonation with concurrent EMR. The enhanced metal extraction and CO2 mineralization process may have implications for the clean energy transition, CO2 storage and utilization, and development of new critical metal resources.

Environmental complexity mitigates the demographic impact of sexual selection.

Sexual selection and the evolution of costly mating strategies can negatively impact population viability and adaptive potential. While laboratory studies have documented outcomes stemming from these processes, recent observations suggest that the demographic impact of sexual selection is contingent on the environment and therefore may have been overestimated in simple laboratory settings. Here we find support for this claim. We exposed copies of beetle populations, previously evolved with or without sexual selection, to a 10-generation heatwave while maintaining half of them in a simple environment and the other half in a complex environment. Populations with an evolutionary history of sexual selection maintained larger sizes and more stable growth rates in complex (relative to simple) environments, an effect not seen in populations evolved without sexual selection. These results have implications for evolutionary forecasting and suggest that the negative demographic impact of sexually selected mating strategies might be low in natural populations.

Infectious Diseases and Clinical Xenotransplantation.

Xenotransplantation, transplantation into humans of vascularized organs or viable cells from nonhuman species, is a potential solution to shortages of transplantable human organs. Among challenges to application of clinical xenotransplantation are unknown risks of transmission of animal microbes to immunosuppressed recipients or the community. Experience in allotransplantation and in preclinical models suggests that viral infections are the greatest concern. Worldwide, the distribution of swine pathogens is heterogeneous and cannot be fully controlled by international agricultural regulations. It is possible to screen source animals for potential human pathogens before procuring organs in a manner not possible within the time available for surveillance testing in allotransplantation. Infection control measures require microbiological assays for surveillance of source animals and xenograft recipients and research into zoonotic potential of porcine organisms. Available data suggest that infectious risks of xenotransplantation are manageable and that clinical trials can advance with appropriate protocols for microbiological monitoring of source animals and recipients.