Understanding the relationship between intergenerational mobility and community violence.

Violence is a key mechanism in the reproduction of community disadvantage. The existing evidence indicates that violence in a community impacts the intergenerational mobility of its residents. The current study explores the possibility of a reverse relationship. This study provisionally tests the hypothesis that depressed intergenerational mobility in a community may also spark subsequent community violence. We deploy a county measure of intergenerational mobility captured during early adulthood for a cohort of youth born between 1980 and 1986 and raised in low-income families [R. Chetty, N. Hendren, Quart. J. Econom. 133, 1163-1228 (2018)]. We model the relationship between county mobility scores and two county-level outcomes: violent crime and homicide. We find that a county's level of intergenerational mobility as measured by the Chetty-Hendren data is a major predictor of its rate of violent crime and homicide in 2008, when the youth in Chetty's mobility cohort were young adults (the same age the mobility measure was captured). In fact, mobility is a significantly stronger and more consistent predictor of community violent crime and homicide rates than more commonly used factors like poverty, inequality, unemployment, and law enforcement presence.

Evaluating the impact of a street outreach intervention on participant involvement in gun violence.

The past several years have witnessed increased calls for community violence interventions (CVIs) that address firearm violence while centering local expertise and avoiding the criminal legal system. Currently, little evidence exists on CVI effectiveness at the individual level. This study presents an evaluation of the impact of a street outreach-based CVI [Chicago CRED (Create Real Economic Destiny)] on participant involvement in violence. We used a quasiexperimental design with a treatment sample of 324 men recruited by outreach staff from 2016 to 2021 and a balanced comparison sample of 2,500 men from a network of individuals arrested in CRED's service areas. We conducted a Bayesian survival analysis to evaluate CRED's effect on individual violence-related outcomes on three levels of treatment: All enrolled participants, a subsample that made it through the initial phase, and those who completed programming. The intervention had a strong favorable effect on the probability of arrest for a violent crime for those completing the program: After 24 mo, CRED alumni experienced an 11.3 percentage point increase in survival rates of arrest for a violent crime relative to their comparisons (or, stated differently, a 73.4% reduction in violent crime arrests). The other two treatment levels experienced nontrivial declines in arrests but did not reach statistical significance. No statistically significant reduction in victimization risk was detected for any of the treatment levels. Results demonstrate that completion of violence intervention programming reduces the likelihood of criminal legal involvement for participants, despite the numerous systemic and environmental factors that impede personal success.

Conflict, violence, and warfare among early farmers in Northwestern Europe.

Bioarchaeological evidence of interpersonal violence and early warfare presents important insights into conflict in past societies. This evidence is critical for understanding the motivations for violence and its effects on opposing and competing individuals and groups across time and space. Selecting the Neolithic of northwestern Europe as an area for study, the present paper examines the variation and societal context for the violence recorded in the human skeletal remains from this region as one of the most important elements of human welfare. Compiling data from various sources, it becomes apparent that violence was endemic in Neolithic Europe, sometimes reaching levels of intergroup hostilities that ended in the utter destruction of entire communities. While the precise comparative quantification of healed and unhealed trauma remains a fundamental problem, patterns emerge that see conflict likely fostered by increasing competition between settled and growing communities, e.g., for access to arable land for food production. The further development of contextual information is paramount in order to address hypotheses on the motivations, origins, and evolution of violence as based on the study of human remains, the most direct indicator for actual small- and large-scale violence.

Hate crime supporters are found across age, gender, and income groups and are susceptible to violent political appeals.

Hate crime is a pervasive problem across societies. Though perpetrators represent a small share of the population, their actions continue in part because they enjoy community support. But we know very little about this wider community of support; existing surveys do not measure whether citizens approve of hate crime. Focusing on Germany, where antiminority violence is entrenched, this paper uses original surveys to provide systematic evidence on the nature and impacts of hate crime support. Employing direct and indirect measures, I find that significant shares of the population support antirefugee hate crime and that the profile of supporters is broad, going much beyond common perpetrator types. I next use a candidate choice experiment to show that this support has disturbing political consequences: among radical right voters, hate crime supporters prefer candidates who endorse using gun violence against refugees. I conclude that a significant number of citizens empower potential perpetrators from the bottom-up and further legitimize hate crime from the top-down by championing violence-promoting political elites.

Correcting misperceptions of the other political party does not robustly reduce support for undemocratic practices or partisan violence.

A growing consensus suggests that a cause of support for undemocratic practices and partisan violence is that partisans misperceive the other side. That is, they vastly exaggerate the extent to which members of the other party support undemocratic practices and violence. When these misperceptions are corrected, citizens' own beliefs moderate. I present results from an experiment that show that misperception corrections do not have an effect in the presence of competing information (i.e., that challenges the validity of the correction or offers a conflicting narrative). Basic corrections do not constitute a robust way to counter democratic backsliding stemming from citizens' misperceptions. The results highlight the need to devise stronger misperception interventions and, more generally, to consider competing information environments when devising any scalable behavioral intervention.

Correcting misperceptions of out-partisans decreases American legislators' support for undemocratic practices.

There is substantial concern about democratic backsliding in the United States. Evidence includes notably high levels of animosity toward out-partisans and support for undemocratic practices (SUP) among the general public. Much less is known, however, about the views of elected officials-even though they influence democratic outcomes more directly. In a survey experiment conducted with state legislators (N = 534), we show that these officials exhibit less animosity toward the other party, less SUP, and less support for partisan violence (SPV) than the general public. However, legislators vastly overestimate the levels of animosity, SUP, and SPV among voters from the other party (though not among voters from their own party). Further, those legislators randomly assigned to receive accurate information about the views of voters from the other party reported significantly lower SUP and marginally significantly lower partisan animosity toward the other party. This suggests that legislators' democratic attitudes are causally linked to their perceptions of other-party voters' democratic attitudes. Our findings highlight the importance of ensuring that office holders have access to reliable information about voters from both parties.

EEG biomarkers of behavioral inhibition in patients with depression who committed violent offenses: a Go/NoGo ERP study.

Understanding the neurobiological correlates of behavioral inhibition in patients with depression who committed violent offenses could contribute to the prediction and prevention of violence. The present study recruited 29 depressed patients with violent offenses (VD group), 27 depressed patients without violent behavior (NVD group), and 28 healthy controls (HC group) to complete a visual Go/NoGo task, during which their responses and electroencephalography were simultaneously recorded using an event-related potentiometer. The results showed that the VD group made more commission errors and responded more slowly relative to the NVD and HC groups. The P3 amplitude of the VD group was reduced in the frontal and central brain regions compared to the HC group and increased in the parietal regions compared to the NVD group. In comparison to Go stimuli, NoGo stimuli induced longer P3 latencies in frontal regions in both the VD and NVD groups; however, this difference was not statistically significant in the HC group. These results provide electrophysical evidence of behavioral inhibition deficits in patients with depression, especially in those with violent behaviors. The reduced P3 amplitude in the frontal-central regions, increased P3 amplitude in the parietal regions, and increased NoGo P3 latency may be potential electrophysiological features that can predict violent behavior in patients with depression.

A comparison of political violence by left-wing, right-wing, and Islamist extremists in the United States and the world.

Although political violence has been perpetrated on behalf of a wide range of political ideologies, it is unclear whether there are systematic differences between ideologies in the use of violence to pursue a political cause. Prior research on this topic is scarce and mostly restricted to self-reported measures or less extreme forms of political aggression. Moreover, it has generally focused on respondents in Western countries and has been limited to either comparisons of the supporters of left-wing and right-wing causes or examinations of only Islamist extremism. In this research we address these gaps by comparing the use of political violence by left-wing, right-wing, and Islamist extremists in the United States and worldwide using two unique datasets that cover real-world examples of politically motivated, violent behaviors. Across both datasets, we find that radical acts perpetrated by individuals associated with left-wing causes are less likely to be violent. In the United States, we find no difference between the level of violence perpetrated by right-wing and Islamist extremists. However, differences in violence emerge on the global level, with Islamist extremists being more likely than right-wing extremists to engage in more violent acts.

Unexpected employee location is associated with injury during robberies.

Millions of employees are victims of violent crimes at work every year, particularly those in the retail industry, who are frequent targets of robbery. Why are some employees injured while others escape from these incidents physically unharmed? Departing from prevailing models of workplace violence, which focus on the static characteristics of perpetrators, victims, and work environments, we examine why and when injuries during robberies occur. Our multimethod investigation of convenience-store robberies sought evidence from detailed coding of surveillance videos and matched archival data, preregistered experiments with formerly incarcerated individuals and customer service personnel, and a 3-y longitudinal intervention study in the field. While standard retail-industry safety protocols encourage employees to be out from behind the cash register area to be safer, we find that robbers are significantly more likely to injure or kill employees who are located there (versus behind the cash register area) when a robbery begins. A 3-y field study demonstrates that changing the safety training protocol-through providing employees with a behavioral script to follow should a robbery begin when they are on the sales floor-was associated with a significantly lower rate of injury during these robberies. Our research establishes the importance of understanding the interactive dynamics of workplace violence, crime, and conflict.

Current research overstates American support for political violence.

SignificanceRecent political events show that members of extreme political groups support partisan violence, and survey evidence supposedly shows widespread public support. We show, however, that, after accounting for survey-based measurement error, support for partisan violence is far more limited. Prior estimates overstate support for political violence because of random responding by disengaged respondents and because of a reliance on hypothetical questions about violence in general instead of questions on specific acts of political violence. These same issues also cause the magnitude of the relationship between previously identified correlates and partisan violence to be overstated. As policy makers consider interventions designed to dampen support for violence, our results provide critical information about the magnitude of the problem.

Correcting inaccurate metaperceptions reduces Americans' support for partisan violence.

Scholars, policy makers, and the general public have expressed growing concern about the possibility of large-scale political violence in the United States. Prior research substantiates these worries, as studies reveal that many American partisans support the use of violence against rival partisans. Here, we propose that support for partisan violence is based in part on greatly exaggerated perceptions of rival partisans' support for violence. We also predict that correcting these inaccurate "metaperceptions" can reduce partisans' own support for partisan violence. We test these hypotheses in a series of preregistered, nationally representative, correlational, longitudinal, and experimental studies (total n = 4,741) collected both before and after the 2020 US presidential election and the 2021 US Capitol attack. In Studies 1 and 2, we found that both Democrats' and Republicans' perceptions of their rival partisans' support for violence and willingness to engage in violence were very inaccurate, with estimates ranging from 245 to 442% higher than actual levels. Further, we found that a brief, informational correction of these misperceptions reduced support for violence by 34% (Study 3) and willingness to engage in violence by 44% (Study 4). In the latter study, a follow-up survey revealed that the correction continued to significantly reduce support for violence approximately 1 mo later. Together, these results suggest that support for partisan violence in the United States stems in part from systematic overestimations of rival partisans' support for violence and that correcting these misperceptions can durably reduce support for partisan violence in the mass public.

Climate change-induced population pressure drives high rates of lethal violence in the Prehispanic central Andes.

Understanding the influence of climate change and population pressure on human conflict remains a critically important topic in the social sciences. Long-term records that evaluate these dynamics across multiple centuries and outside the range of modern climatic variation are especially capable of elucidating the relative effect of­and the interaction between­climate and demography. This is crucial given that climate change may structure population growth and carrying capacity, while both climate and population influence per capita resource availability. This study couples paleoclimatic and demographic data with osteological evaluations of lethal trauma from 149 directly accelerator mass spectrometry 14C-dated individuals from the Nasca highland region of Peru. Multiple local and supraregional precipitation proxies are combined with a summed probability distribution of 149 14C dates to estimate population dynamics during a 700-y study window. Counter to previous findings, our analysis reveals a precipitous increase in violent deaths associated with a period of productive and stable climate, but volatile population dynamics. We conclude that favorable local climate conditions fostered population growth that put pressure on the marginal and highly circumscribed resource base, resulting in violent resource competition that manifested in over 450 y of internecine warfare. These findings help support a general theory of intergroup violence, indicating that relative resource scarcity­whether driven by reduced resource abundance or increased competition­can lead to violence in subsistence societies when the outcome is lower per capita resource availability.

NETfacts: An integrated intervention at the individual and collective level to treat communities affected by organized violence.

War and crises affect mental health, social attitudes, and cultural norms, which can exacerbate the state of long-term insecurity. With decades of armed conflict, the Democratic Republic of Congo is one example, and violence has become normalized in civilian settings. In this study, we tested the effectiveness of the NETfacts health system, an integrated model of evidence-based individual trauma treatment (Narrative Exposure Therapy [NET]) and a trauma-informed community-based intervention (NETfacts). Alongside changes in mental health outcomes (posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, social disapproval, and shame) we also investigated change in attitudes, including rape myth acceptance, stigmatization of survivors of sexual violence, and skepticism about the reintegration of former combatants. To test whether the additional community intervention is superior to individual NET alone, we implemented a randomized controlled design with six villages and interviewed a sample of 1,066 community members. Our results demonstrate that the NETfacts health system in comparison with NET alone more effectively reduced rape myth acceptance and with it ongoing victimization and perpetration. Community members of the NETfacts group also presented with less stigmatizing attitudes against survivors of sexual violence. Skepticism about the reintegration of former combatants declined in both groups. NETfacts appears to have increased motivation to engage in individual treatment. Synergizing the healing effects of individual and collective trauma exposure, the NETfacts health system appears to be an effective and scalable approach to correct degrading or ignominious norms and restore functioning and mental health in postconflict communities.

Religious leaders can motivate men to cede power and reduce intimate partner violence: Experimental evidence from Uganda.

Violence committed by men against women in intimate relationships is a pervasive problem around the world. Patriarchal norms that place men as the head of household are often to blame. Previous research suggests that trusted authorities can shift perceptions of norms and create behavior change. In many settings, a compelling authority on behavior in relationships is religious leaders, who are influential sources of information about proper conduct in relationships and gatekeepers of marriage, but may also uphold traditional gender roles. One way leaders exert their influence is through premarital or couples counseling courses. In this study, we test whether, if given an opportunity to offer a more progressive religious interpretation of gender roles during these courses, religious leaders could motivate men to share power and thereby reduce violence. Building on existing faith networks of Christian religious leaders in western Uganda, we conducted a large pair-matched, randomized controlled trial among 1,680 heterosexual couples in which participants were randomized to attend a 12-session group counseling course or wait-listed. We find that the program shifted power from men to women and reduced intimate partner violence by five percentage points, comparable with more intensive secular programs. These improvements were largest among couples counseled by religious leaders who held the most progressive views at baseline and who critically engaged with the material. Our findings suggest that religious leaders can be effective agents of change for reducing violence.

Aberrant type 2 dopamine receptor availability in violent offenders with psychopathy.

Psychopathy is characterized by antisocial behavior, poor behavioral control and lacking empathy, and structural alterations in the corresponding neural circuits. Molecular brain basis of psychopathy remains poorly characterized. Here we studied type 2 dopamine receptor (D2R) and mu-opioid receptor (MOR) availability in convicted violent offenders with high psychopathic traits (n = 11) and healthy matched controls (n = 17) using positron emission tomography (PET). D2R were measured with radioligand [11C]raclopride and MORs with radioligand [11C]carfentanil. Psychopathic subjects had lowered D2R availability in caudate and putamen, and striatal D2R availability was also associated with degree of psychopathic traits in this prisoner sample. No group differences were found in MOR availability, although in the prisoner sample, psychopathic traits were negatively correlated with MOR availability in the amygdala and nucleus accumbens. We conclude that D2R signaling could be the putative neuromolecular pathway for psychopathy, whereas evidence for alterations in the MOR system is more limited.

Climate and Gender: Association Between Droughts and Intimate Partner Violence in India.

Extreme climate events are related to women's exposure to different forms of violence. We examined the relationship between droughts and physical, sexual, and emotional intimate partner violence (IPV) in India by using 2 different definitions of drought: precipitation-based drought and socioeconomic drought. We analyzed data from 2 rounds of a nationally representative survey, the National Family Health Survey, where married women were asked about their experiences of IPV in the previous year (2015-2016 and 2019-2021; n = 122,696). Precipitation-based drought was estimated using remote sensing data and geographic information system (GIS) mapping, while socioeconomic drought status was collected from government records. Logistic regression models showed precipitation-based drought to increase the risk of experiencing physical IPV and emotional IPV. Similar findings were observed for socioeconomic drought; women residing in areas classified as drought-impacted by the government were more likely to report physical IPV, sexual IPV, and emotional IPV. These findings support the growing body of evidence regarding the relationship between climate change and women's vulnerability, and highlight the need for gender responsive strategies for disaster management and preparedness.

Neighborhood-level Fatal Police Violence and Severe Maternal Morbidity in California.

Police violence is a pervasive issue that may have adverse implications for severe maternal morbidity (SMM). We assessed how the occurrence of fatal police violence (FPV) in one's neighborhood before/during pregnancy may influence SMM risk. Hospital discharge records from California between 2002-2018 were linked with the Fatal Encounters database (N=2,608,682). We identified 2,184 neighborhoods (census-tracts) with at least one FPV incident during the study period and used neighborhood fixed-effects models adjusting for individual sociodemographic characteristics to estimate odds of SMM associated with experiencing FPV in one's neighborhood anytime within the 24-months before childbirth. We did not find conclusive evidence on the link between FPV occurrence before delivery and SMM. However, estimates show that birthing people residing in neighborhoods where one or more FPV events had occurred within the preceding 24-months of giving birth may have a mildly elevated odds of SMM than those residing in the same neighborhoods with no FPV occurrence during the 24-months preceding childbirth (Odds Ratio (OR)=1.02; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.99-1.05), particularly among those living in neighborhoods with fewer (1-2) FPV incidents throughout the study period (OR=1.03; 95% CI:1.00-1.06). Our findings provide evidence for the need to continue to examine the health consequences of police violence.

Toward a clearer understanding of what works to reduce gun violence: the role of falsification strategies.

Strong epidemiologic evidence from ecological and individual-level studies in the United States supports the claim that access to firearms substantially increases the risk of dying by suicide, homicide, and firearm accidents. Less certain is how well particular interventions work to prevent these deaths and other firearm-related harms. Given the limits of existing data to study firearm violence and the infeasibility of conducting randomized trials of firearm access, it is important to do the best we can with the data we already have. We argue that falsification strategies are a critical-yet underutilized-component of any such analytical approach. The falsification strategies we focus on are versions of "negative controls" analyses in which we expect that an analysis should yield a null causal effect, and thus where not obtaining a null effect estimate raises questions about the assumptions underlying causal interpretation of a study's findings. We illustrate the saliency of this issue today with examples drawn from studies published in leading peer-reviewed journals within the last 5 years. Collecting rich, high-quality data always takes time, urgent as the need may be. On the other hand, doing better with the data we already have can start right now.

Neuroimmune mechanisms connecting violence with internalizing symptoms: A high-dimensional multimodal mediation analysis.

Violence exposure is associated with worsening anxiety and depression symptoms among adolescents. Mechanistically, social defeat stress models in mice indicate that violence increases peripherally derived macrophages in threat appraisal regions of the brain, which have been causally linked to anxious behavior. In the present study, we investigate if there is a path connecting violence exposure with internalizing symptom severity through peripheral inflammation and amygdala connectivity. Two hundred and thirty-three adolescents, ages 12-15, from the Chicago area completed clinical assessments, immune assays and neuroimaging. A high-dimensional multimodal mediation model was fit, using violence exposure as the predictor, 12 immune variables as the first set of mediators and 288 amygdala connectivity variables as the second set, and internalizing symptoms as the primary outcome measure. 56.2% of the sample had been exposed to violence in their lifetime. Amygdala-hippocampus connectivity mediated the association between violence exposure and internalizing symptoms ( ζ ̂ Hipp π ̂ Hipp = 0.059 $$ {\hat{\zeta}}_{\mathrm{Hipp}}{\hat{\pi}}_{\mathrm{Hipp}}=0.059 $$ , 95 % CI boot = 0.009,0.134 $$ 95\%{\mathrm{CI}}_{\mathrm{boot}}=\left[\mathrm{0.009,0.134}\right] $$ ). There was no evidence that inflammation or inflammation and amygdala connectivity in tandem mediated the association. Considering the amygdala and the hippocampus work together to encode, consolidate, and retrieve contextual fear memories, violence exposure may be associated with greater connectivity between the amygdala and the hippocampus because it could be adaptive for the amygdala and the hippocampus to be in greater communication following violence exposure to facilitate evaluation of contextual threat cues. Therefore, chronic elevations of amygdala-hippocampal connectivity may indicate persistent vigilance that leads to internalizing symptoms.

Multivariate Bayesian spatio-temporal P-spline models to analyze crimes against women.

Univariate spatio-temporal models for areal count data have received great attention in recent years for estimating risks. However, models for studying multivariate responses are less commonly used mainly due to the computational burden. In this article, multivariate spatio-temporal P-spline models are proposed to study different forms of violence against women. Modeling distinct crimes jointly improves the precision of estimates over univariate models and allows to compute correlations among them. The correlation between the spatial and the temporal patterns may suggest connections among the different crimes that will certainly benefit a thorough comprehension of this problem that affects millions of women around the world. The models are fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations and are used to analyze four distinct crimes against women at district level in the Indian state of Maharashtra during the period 2001-2013.