Robust and prototypical immune responses toward COVID-19 vaccine in First Nations peoples are impacted by comorbidities.

High-risk groups, including Indigenous people, are at risk of severe COVID-19. Here we found that Australian First Nations peoples elicit effective immune responses to COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccination, including neutralizing antibodies, receptor-binding domain (RBD) antibodies, SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific B cells, and CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. In First Nations participants, RBD IgG antibody titers were correlated with body mass index and negatively correlated with age. Reduced RBD antibodies, spike-specific B cells and follicular helper T cells were found in vaccinated participants with chronic conditions (diabetes, renal disease) and were strongly associated with altered glycosylation of IgG and increased interleukin-18 levels in the plasma. These immune perturbations were also found in non-Indigenous people with comorbidities, indicating that they were related to comorbidities rather than ethnicity. However, our study is of a great importance to First Nations peoples who have disproportionate rates of chronic comorbidities and provides evidence of robust immune responses after COVID-19 vaccination in Indigenous people.

Is the disease risk and penetrance in Leber hereditary optic neuropathy actually low?

Pedigree analysis showed that a large proportion of Leber hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) family members who carry a mitochondrial risk variant never lose vision. Mitochondrial haplotype appears to be a major factor influencing the risk of vision loss from LHON. Mitochondrial variants, including m.14484T>C and m.11778G>A, have been added to gene arrays, and thus many patients and research participants are tested for LHON mutations. Analysis of the UK Biobank and Australian cohort studies found more than 1 in 1,000 people in the general population carry either the m.14484T>C or the m.11778G>A LHON variant. None of the subset of carriers examined had visual acuity at 20/200 or worse, suggesting a very low penetrance of LHON. Haplogroup analysis of m.14484T>C carriers showed a high rate of haplogroup U subclades, previously shown to have low penetrance in pedigrees. Penetrance calculations of the general population are lower than pedigree calculations, most likely because of modifier genetic factors. This Matters Arising Response paper addresses the Watson et al. (2022) Matters Arising paper, published concurrently in The American Journal of Human Genetics.

Testing the intrinsic mechanisms driving the dynamics of Ross River Virus across Australia.

The mechanisms driving dynamics of many epidemiologically important mosquito-borne pathogens are complex, involving combinations of vector and host factors (e.g., species composition and life-history traits), and factors associated with transmission and reporting. Understanding which intrinsic mechanisms contribute most to observed disease dynamics is important, yet often poorly understood. Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most important mosquito-borne disease, with variable transmission dynamics across geographic regions. We used deterministic ordinary differential equation models to test mechanisms driving RRV dynamics across major epidemic centers in Brisbane, Darwin, Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, and Coorong. We considered models with up to two vector species (Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Aedes camptorhynchus, Culex globocoxitus), two reservoir hosts (macropods, possums), seasonal transmission effects, and transmission parameters. We fit models against long-term RRV surveillance data (1991-2017) and used Akaike Information Criterion to select important mechanisms. The combination of two vector species, two reservoir hosts, and seasonal transmission effects explained RRV dynamics best across sites. Estimated vector-human transmission rate (average ß = 8.04x10-4per vector per day) was similar despite different dynamics. Models estimate 43% underreporting of RRV infections. Findings enhance understanding of RRV transmission mechanisms, provide disease parameter estimates which can be used to guide future research into public health improvements and offer a basis to evaluate mitigation practices.

Mesothelioma: Scientific clues for prevention, diagnosis, and therapy.

Mesothelioma affects mostly older individuals who have been occupationally exposed to asbestos. The global mesothelioma incidence and mortality rates are unknown, because data are not available from developing countries that continue to use large amounts of asbestos. The incidence rate of mesothelioma has decreased in Australia, the United States, and Western Europe, where the use of asbestos was banned or strictly regulated in the 1970s and 1980s, demonstrating the value of these preventive measures. However, in these same countries, the overall number of deaths from mesothelioma has not decreased as the size of the population and the percentage of old people have increased. Moreover, hotspots of mesothelioma may occur when carcinogenic fibers that are present in the environment are disturbed as rural areas are being developed. Novel immunohistochemical and molecular markers have improved the accuracy of diagnosis; however, about 14% (high-resource countries) to 50% (developing countries) of mesothelioma diagnoses are incorrect, resulting in inadequate treatment and complicating epidemiological studies. The discovery that germline BRCA1-asssociated protein 1 (BAP1) mutations cause mesothelioma and other cancers (BAP1 cancer syndrome) elucidated some of the key pathogenic mechanisms, and treatments targeting these molecular mechanisms and/or modulating the immune response are being tested. The role of surgery in pleural mesothelioma is controversial as it is difficult to predict who will benefit from aggressive management, even when local therapies are added to existing or novel systemic treatments. Treatment outcomes are improving, however, for peritoneal mesothelioma. Multidisciplinary international collaboration will be necessary to improve prevention, early detection, and treatment.

Generational differences in mental health trends in the twenty-first century.

Given the observed deterioration in mental health among Australians over the past decade, this study investigates to what extent this differs in people born in different decades-i.e., possible birth cohort differences in the mental health of Australians. Using 20 y of data from a large, nationally representative panel survey (N = 27,572), we find strong evidence that cohort effects are driving the increase in population-level mental ill-health. Deteriorating mental health is particularly pronounced among people born in the 1990s and seen to a lesser extent among the 1980s cohort. There is little evidence that mental health is worsening with age for people born prior to the 1980s. The findings from this study highlight that it is the poorer mental health of Millennials that is driving the apparent deterioration in population-level mental health. Understanding the context and changes in society that have differentially affected younger people may inform efforts to ameliorate this trend and prevent it continuing for emerging cohorts.

Rates and causes of death after release from incarceration among 1 471 526 people in eight high-income and middle-income countries: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Formerly incarcerated people have exceptionally poor health profiles and are at increased risk of preventable mortality when compared with their general population peers. However, not enough is known about the epidemiology of mortality in this population-specifically the rates, causes, and timing of death in specific subgroups and regions-to inform the development of targeted, evidence-based responses. We aimed to document the incidence, timing, causes, and risk factors for mortality after release from incarceration. METHODS: We analysed linked administrative data from the multi-national Mortality After Release from Incarceration Consortium (MARIC) study. We examined mortality outcomes for 1 471 526 people released from incarceration in eight countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Scotland, Sweden, and the USA) from 1980 to 2018, across 10 534 441 person-years of follow-up (range 0-24 years per person). We combined data from 18 cohort studies using two-step individual participant data meta-analyses to estimate pooled all-cause and cause-specific crude mortality rates (CMRs) per 100 000 person-years, for specific time periods (first, daily from days 1-14; second, weekly from weeks 3-12; third, weeks 13-52 combined; fourth, weeks 53 and over combined; and fifth, total follow-up) after release, overall and stratified by age, sex, and region. FINDINGS: 75 427 deaths were recorded. The all-cause CMR during the first week following release (1612 [95% CI 1048-2287]) was higher than during all other time periods (incidence rate ratio [IRR] compared with week 2: 1·5 [95% CI 1·2-1·8], I2=26·0%, weeks 3-4: 2·0 [1·5-2·6], I2=53·0%, and weeks 9-12: 2·2 [1·6-3·0], I2=70·5%). The highest cause-specific mortality rates during the first week were due to alcohol and other drug poisoning (CMR 657 [95% CI 332-1076]), suicide (135 [36-277]), and cardiovascular disease (71 [16-153]). We observed considerable variation in cause-specific CMRs over time since release and across regions. Pooled all-cause CMRs were similar between males (731 [95% CI 630-839]) and females (660 [560-767]) and were higher in older age groups. INTERPRETATION: The markedly elevated rate of death in the first week post-release underscores an urgent need for investment in evidence-based, coordinated transitional healthcare, including treatment for mental illness and substance use disorders to prevent post-release deaths due to suicide and overdose. Temporal variations in rates and causes of death highlight the need for routine monitoring of post-release mortality. FUNDING: Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council.

Phylodynamic signatures in the emergence of community-associated MRSA.

Community-associated, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) lineages have emerged in many geographically distinct regions around the world during the past 30 y. Here, we apply consistent phylodynamic methods across multiple community-associated MRSA lineages to describe and contrast their patterns of emergence and dissemination. We generated whole-genome sequencing data for the Australian sequence type (ST) ST93-MRSA-IV from remote communities in Far North Queensland and Papua New Guinea, and the Bengal Bay ST772-MRSA-V clone from metropolitan communities in Pakistan. Increases in the effective reproduction number (Re) and sustained transmission (Re > 1) coincided with spread of progenitor methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) in remote northern Australian populations, dissemination of the ST93-MRSA-IV genotype into population centers on the Australian East Coast, and subsequent importation into the highlands of Papua New Guinea and Far North Queensland. Applying the same phylodynamic methods to existing lineage datasets, we identified common signatures of epidemic growth in the emergence and epidemiological trajectory of community-associated S. aureus lineages from America, Asia, Australasia, and Europe. Surges in Re were observed at the divergence of antibiotic-resistant strains, coinciding with their establishment in regional population centers. Epidemic growth was also observed among drug-resistant MSSA clades in Africa and northern Australia. Our data suggest that the emergence of community-associated MRSA in the late 20th century was driven by a combination of antibiotic-resistant genotypes and host epidemiology, leading to abrupt changes in lineage-wide transmission dynamics and sustained transmission in regional population centers.

Multiple arterial vs. single arterial coronary artery bypass grafting: sex-related differences in outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Uncertainty exists over whether multiple arterial grafting has a sex-related association with survival after coronary artery bypass grafting. This study aims to compare the long-term survival of using multiple arterial grafting vs. single arterial grafting in women and men undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. METHODS: The retrospective study used the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiothoracic Surgical Database with linkage to the National Death Index. Patients from 2001 to 2020 were identified. Sex-stratified, inverse probability weighted Cox proportional hazard model was used to facilitate survival comparisons. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total number of 54 275 adult patients receiving at least two grafts in primary isolated bypass operations were analysed. The entire study cohort consisted of 10 693 (19.7%) female patients and 29 711 (54.7%) multiple arterial grafting procedures. At a median (interquartile range) postoperative follow-up of 4.9 (2.3-8.4) years, mortality was significantly lower in male patients undergoing multiarterial than single arterial procedures (adjusted hazard ratio 0.82; 95% confidence interval 0.77-0.87; P < .001). The survival benefit was also significant for females (adjusted hazard ratio 0.83; 95% confidence interval 0.76-0.91; P < .001) at a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 5.2 (2.4-8.7) years. The interaction model from Cox regression suggested insignificant subgroup effect from sex (P = .08) on the observed survival advantage. The survival benefits associated with multiple arterial grafting were consistent across all sex-stratified subgroups except for female patients with left main coronary disease. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to single arterial grafting, multiple arterial revascularization is associated with improved long-term survival for women as well as men.

Long-term outcomes after hospitalization for atrial fibrillation or flutter.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and flutter are common causes of hospitalizations but contemporary long-term outcomes following these episodes are uncertain. This study assessed outcomes up to 10 years after an acute AF or flutter hospitalization. METHODS: Patients hospitalized acutely with a primary diagnosis of AF or flutter from 2008-17 from all public and most private hospitals in Australia and New Zealand were included. Kaplan-Meier methods and flexible parametric survival modelling were used to estimate survival and loss in life expectancy, respectively. Competing risk model accounting for death was used when estimating incidence of non-fatal outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 260 492 adults (mean age 70.5 ± 14.4 years, 49.6% female) were followed up for 1 068 009 person-years (PY), during which 69 167 died (incidence rate 6.5/100 PY) with 91.2% survival at 1 year, 72.7% at 5 years, and 55.2% at 10 years. Estimated loss in life expectancy was 2.6 years, or 16.8% of expected life expectancy. Re-hospitalizations for heart failure (2.9/100 PY), stroke (1.7/100 PY), and myocardial infarction (1.1/100 PY) were common with respective cumulative incidences of 16.8%, 11.0%, and 7.1% by 10 years. Re-hospitalization for AF or flutter occurred in 21.3% by 1 year, 35.3% by 5 years, and 41.2% by 10 years (11.6/100 PY). The cumulative incidence of patients undergoing catheter ablation of AF was 6.5% at 10 years (1.2/100 PY). CONCLUSIONS: Patients hospitalized for AF or flutter had high death rates with an average 2.6-year loss in life expectancy. Moreover, re-hospitalizations for AF or flutter and related outcomes such as heart failure and stroke were common with catheter ablation used infrequently for treatment, which warrant further actions.

A health inequality analysis of childhood asthma prevalence in urban Australia.

BACKGROUND: Long-standing health inequalities in Australian society that were exposed by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic were described as "fault lines" in a recent call to action by a consortium of philanthropic organizations. With asthma a major contributor to childhood disease burden, studies of its spatial epidemiology can provide valuable insights into the emergence of health inequalities early in life. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to characterize the spatial variation of asthma prevalence among children living within Australia's 4 largest cities and quantify the relative contributions of climatic and environmental factors, outdoor air pollution, and socioeconomic status in determining this variation. METHODS: A Bayesian model with spatial smoothing was developed to regress ecologic health status data from the 2021 Australian Census against groups of explanatory covariates intended to represent mechanistic pathways. RESULTS: The prevalence of asthma in children aged 5 to 14 years averages 7.9%, 8.2%, 8.5%, and 7.6% in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth, respectively. This small inter-city variation contrasts against marked intracity variation at the small-area level, which ranges from 6% to 12% between the least and most affected locations in each. Statistical variance decomposition on a subsample of Australian-born, nonindigenous children attributes 66% of the intracity spatial variation to the assembled covariates. Of these covariates, climatic and environmental factors contribute 30%, outdoor air pollution contributes 19%, and areal socioeconomic status contributes the remaining 51%. CONCLUSION: Geographic health inequalities in the prevalence of childhood asthma within Australia's largest cities reflect a complex interplay of factors, among which socioeconomic status is a principal determinant.

Exploring the Infectious Contribution to Intussusception Causality Using the Effects of COVID-19 Lockdowns in Australia: An Ecological Study.

BACKGROUND: Intussusception is the primary cause of acute bowel obstruction in infants. The majority of cases <2 years of age are classed as idiopathic, with viral infection implicated as one of the causes. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) public health measures led to significant decreases in communicable disease prevalence. During these times, reductions in intussusception frequency were greater than would be expected with our previous understanding of its infectious etiology. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, multistate, ecological study over a 12-year period. Monthly case numbers of "intussusception"-coded admissions (code K56.1; International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, Australian Modification) were acquired from state-wide admissions data sets from New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland, representing 77.62% of the eligible Australian population. These counts within differing jurisdictional lockdowns were compared with non-lockdown periods in order to investigate a correlation between intussusception frequency and lockdown periods. RESULTS: We found a negative association between intussusception frequency and lockdown periods in both eligible states. The largest reductions were seen in the <2-year age groups, with Victoria experiencing a 62.7% reduction (rate ratio, 0.37; P < .001) and New South Wales a 40.1% reduction (0.599; P = .006) during lockdown times. Controls for variations in lockdown restrictions between both regional and metropolitan areas also showed expected decreases. CONCLUSIONS: Our ecological study demonstrates significant decreases in the frequency of pediatric intussusception admissions during the COVID-19 lockdown periods. The unexpected magnitude of the reductions suggests that the true proportion of infectious disease-caused idiopathic intussusception is greatly underestimated.

Excess Deaths Associated with Rheumatic Heart Disease, Australia, 2013-2017.

During 2013-2017, the mortality rate ratio for rheumatic heart disease among Indigenous versus non-Indigenous persons in Australia was 15.9, reflecting health inequity. Using excess mortality methods, we found that deaths associated with rheumatic heart disease among Indigenous Australians were probably substantially undercounted, affecting accuracy of calculations based solely on Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

Emergence of Poultry-Associated Human Salmonella enterica Serovar Abortusovis Infections, New South Wales, Australia.

Salmonella enterica serovar Abortusovis is a ovine-adapted pathogen that causes spontaneous abortion. Salmonella Abortusovis was reported in poultry in 2009 and has since been reported in human infections in New South Wales, Australia. Phylogenomic analysis revealed a clade of 51 closely related isolates from Australia originating in 2004. That clade was genetically distinct from ovine-associated isolates. The clade was widespread in New South Wales poultry production facilities but was only responsible for sporadic human infections. Some known virulence factors associated with human infections were only found in the poultry-associated clade, some of which were acquired through prophages and plasmids. Furthermore, the ovine-associated clade showed signs of genome decay, but the poultry-associated clade did not. Those genomic changes most likely led to differences in host range and disease type. Surveillance using the newly identified genetic markers will be vital for tracking Salmonella Abortusovis transmission in animals and to humans and preventing future outbreaks.

Ocular Dirofilariasis in Migrant from Sri Lanka, Australia.

We describe a case of imported ocular dirofilariasis in Australia, linked to the Hong Kong genotype of Dirofilaria sp., in a migrant from Sri Lanka. Surgical extraction and mitochondrial sequences analyses confirmed this filarioid nematode as the causative agent and a Dirofilaria sp. not previously reported in Australia.

Population-Based Study of Pertussis Incidence and Risk Factors among Persons >50 Years of Age, Australia.

Despite vaccination programs, pertussis has been poorly controlled, especially among older adults in Australia. This longitudinal, retrospective, observational study aimed to estimate the incidence and risk factors of pertussis among persons ≥50 years of age in Australia in the primary care setting, including those with underlying chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. We used the IQVIA general practitioner electronic medical record database to identify patients ≥50 years of age with a clinical diagnosis of pertussis during 2015-2019. Pertussis incidence rates ranged from 57.6 to 91.4 per 100,000 persons and were higher among women and highest in those 50-64 years of age. Patients with COPD or asthma had higher incidence rates and an increased risk for pertussis compared with the overall population ≥50 years of age. Our findings suggest that persons ≥50 years of age in Australia with COPD or asthma have a higher incidence of and risk for pertussis diagnosis.

Obstetric and Neonatal Invasive Meningococcal Disease Caused by Neisseria meningitidis Serogroup W, Western Australia, Australia.

Three mother-baby pairs with invasive meningococcal disease occurred over 7 months in Western Australia, Australia, at a time when serogroup W sequence type 11 clonal complex was the predominant local strain. One mother and 2 neonates died, highlighting the role of this strain as a cause of obstetric and early neonatal death.

Shiga Toxin‒Producing Escherichia coli Diagnoses from Health Practitioners, Queensland, Australia.

In Queensland, Australia, 31 of 96 Shiga toxin‒producing Escherichia coli cases during 2020-2022 were reported by a specialty pathology laboratory servicing alternative health practitioners. Those new cases were more likely to be asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic, prompting a review of the standard public health response.

Benefits and harms of prostate specific antigen testing according to Australian guidelines.

Guidelines for prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing in Australia recommend that men at average risk of prostate cancer who have been informed of the benefits and harms, and who decide to undergo regular testing, should be offered testing every 2 years from 50 to 69 years. This study aimed to estimate the benefits and harms of regular testing in this context. We constructed Policy1-Prostate, a discrete event microsimulation platform of the natural history of prostate cancer and prostate cancer survival, and PSA testing patterns and subsequent management in Australia. The model was calibrated to pre-PSA (before 1985) prostate cancer incidence and mortality and validated against incidence and mortality trends from 1985 to 2011 and international trials. The model predictions were concordant with trials and Australian observed incidence and mortality data from 1985 to 2011. Out of 1000 men who choose to test according to the guidelines, 36 [21-41] men will die from prostate cancer and 126 [119-133] men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer, compared with 50 [47-54] and 94 [90-98] men who do not test, respectively. During the 20 years of active PSA testing, 32.3% [25.6%-38.8%] of all PSA-test detected cancers are overdiagnosed cases that is, 30 [21-42] out of 94 [83-107] PSA-test detected cancers. Australian men choosing to test with PSA every two years from 50 to 69 will reduce their risk of ever dying from prostate cancer and incur a risk of overdiagnosis: for every man who avoids dying from prostate cancer, two will be overdiagnosed with prostate cancer between 50 and 69 years of age. Australian men, with health professionals, can use these results to inform decision-making about PSA testing.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delivery of prostate cancer care in Australia: An interrupted time series analysis.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a major disruption to health services across the world. The aim of this population-based study was to assess the downstream effects of the pandemic on diagnostic tests and treatment activities related to prostate cancer (PC). The Australian Government Department of Health Medicare Benefits Schedule and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme databases were queried from January 2010 to June 2022. Two interrupted time series were performed Pre-COVID (January 2010 to February 2020) and peri-COVID (March 2020 to June 2022). Temporal modeling was performed to account for seasonal variation. Pre-COVID-19, monthly prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing showed a declining trend and testing decreased by 81 tests per 100 000 annually. A single-month 38% drop in PSA testing was observed in April 2020; this corresponded to Australia's first wave. No change was observed in the rate of prostate biopsies. Peri-COVID-19 outbreaks, there was a slight shift toward the use of long-acting androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) at 4% with a predilection still for short-acting agents. with no registered change in the overall volume of radiotherapy or surgery. There were no deficits in the number of diagnostic and treatment activities for men with PC. Aside from a slight shift toward long-acting ADT use during the pandemic, no other patterns were observed. The longer-term impact such as missed diagnosis or late presentation affecting chances of survival due to COVID-19 is yet to be ascertained.

Associations between pathological features and risk of metachronous colorectal cancer.

Survivors of colorectal cancer (CRC) are at risk of developing another primary colorectal cancer - metachronous CRC. Understanding which pathological features of the first tumour are associated with risk of metachronous CRC might help tailor existing surveillance guidelines. Population-based CRC cases were recruited from the United States, Canada and Australia between 1997 and 2012 and followed prospectively until 2022 by the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Metachronous CRC was defined as a new primary CRC diagnosed at least 1 year after the initial CRC. Those with the genetic cancer predisposition Lynch syndrome or MUTYH mutation carriers were excluded. Cox regression models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations. Of 6085 CRC cases, 138 (2.3%) were diagnosed with a metachronous CRC over a median follow-up time of 12 years (incidence: 2.0 per 1000 person-years). CRC cases with a synchronous CRC were 3.4-fold more likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 3.36, 95% CI: 1.89-5.98) than those without a synchronous tumour. CRC cases with MMR-deficient tumours had a 72% increased risk of metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.11-2.64) compared to those with MMR-proficient tumours. Compared to cases who had an adenocarcinoma histologic type, those with an undifferentiated histologic type were 77% less likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.06-0.94). Existing surveillance guidelines for CRC survivors could be updated to include increased surveillance for those whose first CRC was diagnosed with a synchronous CRC or was MMR-deficient.