Postoperative radiotherapy omission in selected patients with early breast cancer following preoperative breast MRI (PROSPECT): primary results of a prospective two-arm study.

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant breast radiotherapy as a standard component of breast-conserving treatment for early cancer can overtreat many women. Breast MRI is the most sensitive modality to assess local tumour burden. The aim of this study was to determine whether a combination of MRI and pathology findings can identify women with truly localised breast cancer who can safely avoid radiotherapy. METHODS: PROSPECT is a prospective, multicentre, two-arm, non-randomised trial of radiotherapy omission in patients selected using preoperative MRI and postoperative tumour pathology. It is being conducted at four academic hospitals in Australia. Women aged 50 years or older with cT1N0 non-triple-negative breast cancer were eligible. Those with apparently unifocal cancer had breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and, if pT1N0 or N1mi, had radiotherapy omitted (group 1). Standard treatment including excision of MRI-detected additional cancers was offered to the others (group 2). All were recommended systemic therapy. The primary outcome was ipsilateral invasive recurrence rate (IIRR) at 5 years in group 1. Primary analysis occurred after the 100th group 1 patient reached 5 years follow-up. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and cost-effectiveness of the PROSPECT pathway were analysed. This study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12610000810011). FINDINGS: Between May 17, 2011, and May 6, 2019, 443 patients with breast cancer underwent MRI. Median age was 63·0 years. MRI detected 61 malignant occult lesions separate from the index cancer in 48 patients (11%). Of 201 group 1 patients who had BCS without radiotherapy, the IIRR at 5 years was 1·0% (upper 95% CI 5·4%). In group 1, one local recurrence occurred at 4·5 years and a second at 7·5 years. In group 2, nine patients had mastectomy (2% of total cohort), and the 5-year IIRR was 1·7% (upper 95% CI 6·1%). The only distant metastasis in the entire cohort was genetically distinct from the index cancer. The PROSPECT pathway increased QALYs by 0·019 (95% CI 0·008-0·029) and saved AU$1980 (95% CI 1396-2528) or £953 (672-1216) per patient. INTERPRETATION: PROSPECT suggests that women with unifocal breast cancer on MRI and favourable pathology can safely omit radiotherapy. FUNDING: Breast Cancer Trials, National Breast Cancer Foundation, Cancer Council Victoria, the Royal Melbourne Hospital Foundation, and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation.

Geographic patterns of koala retrovirus genetic diversity, endogenization, and subtype distributions.

Koala retrovirus (KoRV) subtype A (KoRV-A) is currently in transition from exogenous virus to endogenous viral element, providing an ideal system to elucidate retroviral-host coevolution. We characterized KoRV geography using fecal DNA from 192 samples across 20 populations throughout the koala's range. We reveal an abrupt change in KoRV genetics and incidence at the Victoria/New South Wales state border. In northern koalas, pol gene copies were ubiquitously present at above five per cell, consistent with endogenous KoRV. In southern koalas, pol copies were detected in only 25.8% of koalas and always at copy numbers below one, while the env gene was detected in all animals and in a majority at copy numbers above one per cell. These results suggest that southern koalas carry partial endogenous KoRV-like sequences. Deep sequencing of the env hypervariable region revealed three putatively endogenous KoRV-A sequences in northern koalas and a single, distinct sequence present in all southern koalas. Among northern populations, env sequence diversity decreased with distance from the equator, suggesting infectious KoRV-A invaded the koala genome in northern Australia and then spread south. The exogenous KoRV subtypes (B to K), two novel subtypes, and intermediate subtypes were detected in all northern koala populations but were strikingly absent from all southern animals tested. Apart from KoRV subtype D, these exogenous subtypes were generally locally prevalent but geographically restricted, producing KoRV genetic differentiation among northern populations. This suggests that sporadic evolution and local transmission of the exogenous subtypes have occurred within northern Australia, but this has not extended into animals within southern Australia.

Use of radiotherapy in patients with oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, and ovarian cancer: an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on variation in radiotherapy use in different countries, although it is a key treatment modality for some patients with cancer. Here we aimed to examine such variation. METHODS: This population-based study used data from Norway, the four UK nations (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales), nine Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Saskatchewan), and two Australian states (New South Wales and Victoria). Patients aged 15-99 years diagnosed with cancer in eight different sites (oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, or ovarian cancer), with no other primary cancer diagnosis occurring within the 5 years before to 1 year after the index cancer diagnosis or during the study period were included in the study. We examined variation in radiotherapy use from 31 days before to 365 days after diagnosis and time to its initiation, alongside related variation in patient group differences. Information was obtained from cancer registry records linked to clinical or patient management system data, or hospital administration data. Random-effects meta-analyses quantified interjurisdictional variation using 95% prediction intervals (95% PIs). FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2017, of 902 312 patients with a new diagnosis of one of the studied cancers, 115 357 (12·8%) did not meet inclusion criteria, and 786,955 were included in the analysis. There was large interjurisdictional variation in radiotherapy use, with wide 95% PIs: 17·8 to 82·4 (pooled estimate 50·2%) for oesophageal cancer, 35·5 to 55·2 (45·2%) for rectal cancer, 28·6 to 54·0 (40·6%) for lung cancer, and 4·6 to 53·6 (19·0%) for stomach cancer. For patients with stage 2-3 rectal cancer, interjurisdictional variation was greater than that for all patients with rectal cancer (95% PI 37·0 to 84·6; pooled estimate 64·2%). Radiotherapy use was infrequent but variable in patients with pancreatic (95% PI 1·7 to 16·5%), liver (1·8 to 11·2%), colon (1·6 to 5·0%), and ovarian (0·8 to 7·6%) cancer. Patients aged 85-99 years had three-times lower odds of radiotherapy use than those aged 65-74 years, with substantial interjurisdictional variation in this age difference (odds ratio [OR] 0·38; 95% PI 0·20-0·73). Women had slightly lower odds of radiotherapy use than men (OR 0·88, 95% PI 0·77-1·01). There was large variation in median time to first radiotherapy (from diagnosis date) by cancer site, with substantial interjurisdictional variation (eg, oesophageal 95% PI 11·3 days to 112·8 days; pooled estimate 62·0 days; rectal 95% PI 34·7 days to 77·3 days; pooled estimate 56·0 days). Older patients had shorter median time to radiotherapy with appreciable interjurisdictional variation (-9·5 days in patients aged 85-99 years vs 65-74 years, 95% PI -26·4 to 7·4). INTERPRETATION: Large interjurisdictional variation in both use and time to radiotherapy initiation were observed, alongside large and variable age differences. To guide efforts to improve patient outcomes, underlying reasons for these differences need to be established. FUNDING: International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Institute New South Wales, Cancer Research UK, Danish Cancer Society, National Cancer Registry Ireland, The Cancer Society of New Zealand, National Health Service England, Norwegian Cancer Society, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, DG Health and Social Care Scottish Government, Western Australia Department of Health, and Public Health Wales NHS Trust).

Use of chemotherapy in patients with oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, and ovarian cancer: an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There are few data on international variation in chemotherapy use, despite it being a key treatment type for some patients with cancer. Here, we aimed to examine the presence and size of such variation. METHODS: This population-based study used data from Norway, the four UK nations (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales), eight Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Saskatchewan), and two Australian states (New South Wales and Victoria). Patients aged 15-99 years diagnosed with cancer in eight different sites (oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, or ovarian cancer), with no other primary cancer diagnosis occurring from within the 5 years before to 1 year after the index cancer diagnosis or during the study period were included in the study. We examined variation in chemotherapy use from 31 days before to 365 days after diagnosis and time to its initiation, alongside related variation in patient group differences. Information was obtained from cancer registry records linked to clinical or patient management system data or hospital administration data. Random-effects meta-analyses quantified interjurisdictional variation using 95% prediction intervals (95% PIs). FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2017, of 893 461 patients with a new diagnosis of one of the studied cancers, 111 569 (12·5%) did not meet the inclusion criteria, and 781 892 were included in the analysis. There was large interjurisdictional variation in chemotherapy use for all studied cancers, with wide 95% PIs: 47·5 to 81·2 (pooled estimate 66·4%) for ovarian cancer, 34·9 to 59·8 (47·2%) for oesophageal cancer, 22·3 to 62·3 (40·8%) for rectal cancer, 25·7 to 55·5 (39·6%) for stomach cancer, 17·2 to 56·3 (34·1%) for pancreatic cancer, 17·9 to 49·0 (31·4%) for lung cancer, 18·6 to 43·8 (29·7%) for colon cancer, and 3·5 to 50·7 (16·1%) for liver cancer. For patients with stage 3 colon cancer, the interjurisdictional variation was greater than that for all patients with colon cancer (95% PI 38·5 to 78·4; 60·1%). Patients aged 85-99 years had 20-times lower odds of chemotherapy use than those aged 65-74 years, with very large interjurisdictional variation in this age difference (odds ratio 0·05; 95% PI 0·01 to 0·19). There was large variation in median time to first chemotherapy (from diagnosis date) by cancer site, with substantial interjurisdictional variation, particularly for rectal cancer (95% PI -15·5 to 193·9 days; pooled estimate 89·2 days). Patients aged 85-99 years had slightly shorter median time to first chemotherapy compared with those aged 65-74 years, consistently between jurisdictions (-3·7 days, 95% PI -7·6 to 0·1). INTERPRETATION: Large variation in use and time to chemotherapy initiation were observed between the participating jurisdictions, alongside large and variable age group differences in chemotherapy use. To guide efforts to improve patient outcomes, the underlying reasons for these patterns need to be established. FUNDING: International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Institute New South Wales, Cancer Research UK, Danish Cancer Society, National Cancer Registry Ireland, The Cancer Society of New Zealand, National Health Service England, Norwegian Cancer Society, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, DG Health and Social Care Scottish Government, Western Australia Department of Health, and Public Health Wales NHS Trust).

Exploring the Infectious Contribution to Intussusception Causality Using the Effects of COVID-19 Lockdowns in Australia: An Ecological Study.

BACKGROUND: Intussusception is the primary cause of acute bowel obstruction in infants. The majority of cases <2 years of age are classed as idiopathic, with viral infection implicated as one of the causes. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) public health measures led to significant decreases in communicable disease prevalence. During these times, reductions in intussusception frequency were greater than would be expected with our previous understanding of its infectious etiology. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, multistate, ecological study over a 12-year period. Monthly case numbers of "intussusception"-coded admissions (code K56.1; International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, Australian Modification) were acquired from state-wide admissions data sets from New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland, representing 77.62% of the eligible Australian population. These counts within differing jurisdictional lockdowns were compared with non-lockdown periods in order to investigate a correlation between intussusception frequency and lockdown periods. RESULTS: We found a negative association between intussusception frequency and lockdown periods in both eligible states. The largest reductions were seen in the <2-year age groups, with Victoria experiencing a 62.7% reduction (rate ratio, 0.37; P < .001) and New South Wales a 40.1% reduction (0.599; P = .006) during lockdown times. Controls for variations in lockdown restrictions between both regional and metropolitan areas also showed expected decreases. CONCLUSIONS: Our ecological study demonstrates significant decreases in the frequency of pediatric intussusception admissions during the COVID-19 lockdown periods. The unexpected magnitude of the reductions suggests that the true proportion of infectious disease-caused idiopathic intussusception is greatly underestimated.

Relationships of Severity of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia with Adverse Neurodevelopmental Outcomes and Poor Respiratory Function at 7-8 Years of Age.

OBJECTIVE: To clarify the relationships of 3 definitions of severity of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) with adverse neurodevelopmental and respiratory outcomes at early school-age. STUDY DESIGN: Participants comprised 218 consecutive survivors to 7-8 years of age born either <28 weeks' gestation or weighing <1000 g in Victoria, Australia, in 2005. BPD was classified as none, grade 1 (mild), grade 2 (moderate), or grade 3 (severe), using 2 commonly accepted definitions: 1) Jobe2001, and 2) Higgins2018, and our own 3) Victorian Infant Collaborative Study (VICS) 2005, adapted from Jensen2019. Outcomes included major neurodevelopmental disability, low IQ and academic achievement, poor motor function, and poor respiratory function as assessed by spirometry. Outcomes for children with each grade of BPD were compared with children with no BPD. RESULTS: Of the 218 survivors, 132 (61%) had BPD on Jobe2001 criteria, and 113 (52%) had BPD on both Higgins2018 and VICS2005 criteria. Grade 1 on any criteria was not associated with any adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes. Grade 1 on both Higgins2018 and VICS2005 was associated with reduced spirometry, grade 2 on both Higgins2018 and VICS2005, and grade 3 on all criteria were associated with increased risk for both adverse neurodevelopmental and respiratory outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with no BPD, receiving additional oxygen up to 29% but no positive pressure support at 36 weeks' postmenstrual age increased the risk of abnormal respiratory function but not adverse neurodevelopment. Receiving ≥30% oxygen or any positive pressure support at 36 weeks increased the risk of both adverse outcomes.

Trajectories of oral bisphosphonate use after hip fractures: a population-based cohort study.

Bisphosphonates prevent future hip fractures. However, we found that one in six patients with hip fractures had a delay in bisphosphonate initiation and another one-sixth discontinued treatment within 12 months after discharge. Our results highlight the need to address hesitancy in treatment initiation and continuous monitoring. PURPOSE: Suboptimal antiresorptive use is not well understood. This study investigated trajectories of oral bisphosphonate use following first hip fractures and factors associated with different adherence and persistence trajectories. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of all patients aged ≥ 50 years dispensed two or more bisphosphonate prescriptions following first hip fracture in Victoria, Australia, from 2012 to 2017. Twelve-month trajectories of bisphosphonate use were categorized using group-based trajectory modeling. Factors associated with different trajectories compared to the persistent adherence trajectory were assessed using multivariate multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: We identified four patterns of oral bisphosphonate use in 1811 patients: persistent adherence (66%); delayed dispensing (17%); early discontinuation (9%); and late discontinuation (9%). Pre-admission bisphosphonate use was associated with a lower risk of delayed dispensing in both sexes (relative risk [RR] 0.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21-0.39). Older patients ( ≥ 85 years old versus 50-64 years old, RR 0.38, 95% CI 0.22-0.64) had a lower risk of delayed dispensing. Males with anxiety (RR 9.80, 95% CI 2.24-42.9) and females with previous falls had increased risk of early discontinuation (RR 1.80, 95% CI 1.16-2.78). CONCLUSION: Two-thirds of patients demonstrated good adherence to oral bisphosphonates over 12 months following hip fracture. Efforts to further increase post-discharge antiresorptive use should be sex-specific and address possible persistent uncertainty around delaying treatment initiation.

Cardiovascular disease hospitalizations among women who undergo fertility treatment.

RESEARCH QUESTION: Are women who receive fertility treatment at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) hospitalization compared with women who do not? DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study of all women registered for fertility treatment at Monash IVF between 1998 and 2014. This cohort was linked to the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset, which contains records of all hospital admissions in the Australian state of Victoria. Age- and Index of Relative Socioeconomic Disadvantage (IRSD)-adjusted relative risks of CVD hospitalization for women who did or did not undergo fertility treatment were determined using Poisson regression. Risks were calculated overall by CVD subtype and stratified by area-based social disadvantage using IRSD fifths, number of stimulated cycles and mean oocytes per cycle. RESULTS: Of 27,262 women registered for fertility treatment, 24,131 underwent treatment and 3131 did not. No significant difference was found in risk of CVD hospitalization between treated and untreated women overall (adjusted RR 0.93, 95% 0.82 to 1.05) or by CVD subtype. The admission risk for CVD was significantly lower in treated women who had a mean of fewer than five oocytes per cycle (adjusted RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.92) compared with untreated women. Treated women residing in areas within the second IRSD fifth were less likely to be hospitalized for CVD compared with untreated women (age-adjusted RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.89). CONCLUSIONS: Fertility treatment is not associated with increased risk of CVD hospitalization. Lower risk among some subgroups of treated women may be explained by social disadvantage.

The CONFIRM trial protocol: the utility of prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography/computed tomography in active surveillance for prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVES: Primary objectives: To determine the additive value of prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) in the risk stratification of men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer (PCa) who would have otherwise been deemed suitable for active surveillance (AS). Specifically, we aim to determine if PSMA PET/CT can detect a cohort of men on AS that are in fact high risk and likely to experience unfavourable outcomes should they remain on their current treatment pathway. SECONDARY OBJECTIVES: to determine the additive value of PSMA PET/CT to repeat multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) of the prostate and explore whether a confirmatory biopsy may be avoided in men with a negative PSMA PET/CT and a negative repeat mpMRI of the prostate (Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System score of <3). Furthermore, to develop a nomogram combining clinical, imaging and biomarker data to predict the likelihood of failure on AS in men with high-risk features. Also, a blood sample will be taken to perform a Prostate Health Index test at the time of confirmatory biopsy. Furthermore, a portion of this blood will be stored at a biobank for up to 5 years if a follow-up study on molecular biomarkers and genetic assays in this cohort of men is indicated, based on the results from the CONFIRM trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The CONFIRM trial is a prospective, multicentre, pre-test/post-test, cohort study across Victoria, Australia, involving men with newly diagnosed low-risk PCa with high-risk features, considered suitable for AS and undergoing confirmatory biopsy. The trial's goal is to provide high-quality evidence to establish whether PSMA PET/CT has a role in risk-stratifying men deemed suitable for AS despite having high-risk feature(s). RESULTS: The CONFIRM trial will measure the proportion of men deemed unsuitable for ongoing AS based on pathological upgrading and multidisciplinary team recommendation due to PSMA PET/CT scan and PSMA-targeted confirmatory biopsy. Additionally, the positive and negative predictive values, sensitivity, and specificity of PSMA PET/CT will be calculated in isolation and combined with repeat mpMRI of the prostate. CONCLUSIONS: This trial will provide robust prospective data to determine if PSMA-PET/CT and standard of care (prostate biopsy ± repeat mpMRI) can improve diagnostic certainty in men undergoing confirmatory biopsy for low-grade PCa with high-risk features.

"Too young to have this kind of diagnosis": A qualitative exploration of younger adults' experiences of colorectal cancer diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE: Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence is rising among adults under the age of 50 (early- or young-onset CRC). This population is more likely to have advanced-stage disease at diagnosis, suggesting their diagnostic pathway may be prolonged. To better understand factors influencing this pathway, this study explored patients' experiences of decision-making during a diagnosis of young-onset CRC. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 participants with young-onset CRC diagnosed in 2021-2022 in Victoria, Australia. Interviews were conducted online or by phone an average 7 months (range 1-13) after diagnosis. Analysis was approached from a critical realist perspective, with themes developed inductively using reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Five themes were identified: Shifting Perception of Urgency, Multidimensional Perception of Role, Making the Most of Resources, Stage of Life, and COVID Adds Complexity. Participants' decision-making evolved over the diagnostic period. As participants perceived urgency to act, they took on a more active role in decision-making, utilising personal resources to access timely care. Their decisions were shaped by stage-of-life considerations, including employment and caring for a young family, with the COVID-19 pandemic adding "…a whole other layer of complexity" to the process. CONCLUSIONS: Younger adults with CRC make decisions in the context of unique considerations, adapting to reduce time to diagnosis, with decisions complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Greater support from health care providers/systems in the diagnostic period may improve timeliness of CRC diagnosis and outcomes in younger adults.

Modelling the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus in Victoria, Australia, using an expert-systems approach.

Predictive models for vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are instrumental to understanding the potential geographic spread of VBDs and therefore serve as useful tools for public health decision-making. However, predicting the emergence of VBDs at the micro-, local, and regional levels presents challenges, as the importance of risk factors can vary spatially and temporally depending on climatic factors and vector and host abundance and preferences. We propose an expert-systems-based approach that uses an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) deployed within a geographic information system (GIS), to predict areas susceptible to the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) emergence. This modelling approach produces risk maps, identifying micro-level risk areas with the potential for disease emergence. The results revealed that climatic conditions, especially the minimum temperature and precipitation required for JEV transmission, contributed to high-risk conditions developed during January and March of 2022 in Victora. Compared to historical climate records, the risk of JEV emergence was increased in most parts of the state due to climate. Importantly, the model accurately predicted 7 out of the 8 local government areas that reported JEV-positive cases during the outbreak of 2022 in Victorian piggeries. This underscores the model's potential as a reliable tool for supporting local risk assessments in the face of evolving climate change.

The burden of skin and soft tissue, bone and joint infections in an Australian cohort of people who inject drugs.

INTRODUCTION: There are currently limited data regarding the clinical and economic significance of skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) and bone and joint infections in Australian people who inject drugs (PWID). METHODS: Retrospective cohort study in adult PWID admitted to Monash Health, a large heath care network with six hospitals in Victoria, Australia. Inpatients were identified using administrative datasets and International Classification of Disease (ICD-10) coding for specific infection-related conditions. Cost analysis was based on mean ward, intensive care and hospital-in-the-home (HITH) lengths of stay. Spinal infections and endocarditis were excluded as part of previous studies. RESULTS: A total of 185 PWID (61 female, 124 male, median age 37) meeting the study criteria were admitted to Monash Health between January 2010 and January 2021. Admitting diagnoses included 78 skin abscesses, 80 cellulitis, 17 septic arthritis, 4 osteomyelitis, 3 thrombophlebitis and 1 each of necrotising fasciitis, vasculitis and myositis. Pain (87.5%) and swelling (75.1%) were the most common presenting complaints. Opioids (67.4%) and methamphetamine (37.5%) were the most common primary drugs injected. Almost half (46.5%) of patients had concurrent active hepatitis C (HCV) infection on admission. Hepatitis B (HBV) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) were uncommon. The most significant causative organism was methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (24.9%). In 40.0% (74/185) no organism was identified. Patients required a median acute hospital stay of 5 days (2-51 days). There were 15 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with median duration 2 days. PICC line insertion for antibiotics was required in 16.8% of patients, while 51.4% required surgical intervention. Median duration of both oral and IV antibiotic therapy was 11 days. Almost half (48.6%) of patients were enrolled in an opioid maintenance program on discharge. Average estimated expenditure was AUD $16, 528 per admission. CONCLUSION: Skin and soft tissue and joint infections are a major cause of morbidity for PWID. Admission to hospital provides opportunistic involvement of addiction specialty services.

The prevalence of and factors associated with prior induced abortion among women who gave birth in Victoria, 2010-2019.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of a history of induced abortion among women who gave birth in Victoria during 2010-2019; to assess the association of socio-demographic factors with a history of induced abortion. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study; analysis of cross-sectional perinatal data in the Victorian Perinatal Data Collection (VPDC). SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: All women who gave birth (live or stillborn) in Victoria, 1 January 2010 - 31 December 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported induced abortions prior to the index birth; outcome of the most recent pregnancy preceding the index pregnancy. RESULTS: Of the 766 488 women who gave birth during 2010-2019, 93 251 reported induced abortions (12.2%), including 36 938 of 338 547 nulliparous women (10.9%). Women living in inner regional (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-0.96) or outer regional/remote/very remote areas (aOR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.83-0.89) were less likely than women in major cities to report induced abortions. The likelihood increased steadily with age at the index birth and with parity, and was also higher for women without partners at the index birth (aOR, 2.20; 95% CI, 2.16-2.25) and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women (aOR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.25-1.40). The likelihood was lower for women born in most areas outside Australia than for those born in Australia. The likelihood of a history of induced abortion declined across the study period overall (2019 v 2010: 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90-0.96) and for women in major cities (0.88; 95% CI, 0.84-0.91); rises in inner regional and outer regional/remote/very remote areas were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Access to abortion care in Victoria improved during 2010-2019, but the complex interplay between contraceptive use, unintended pregnancy, and induced abortion requires further exploration by remoteness of residence. Robust information about numbers of unintended pregnancies and access to reproductive health services are needed to guide national sexual and reproductive health policy and practice.

Obesity in women giving birth in Victoria, 2010-2019: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of obesity in pregnant women in Victoria, 2010-2019. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study; analysis of Victorian Perinatal Data Collection data. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Women who gave birth in seventeen Victorian Department of Health areas (eight metropolitan, nine regional), 2010-2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportions of births to women with obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2), by Department of Health area and year. RESULTS: A total of 710 364 births with records that included the mothers' BMI were recorded in Victoria during 2010-2019. The proportion of births to women with obesity rose from 19.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 19.3-19.9%) in 2010 to 21.5% (95% CI, 21.2-21.8%) in 2019; the proportion of births to women with normal weight declined from 49.0% (95% CI, 48.6-49.4%) to 46.8% (95% CI, 46.4-47.1%). In metropolitan areas, the proportion of births to women with obesity rose from 17.7% (95% CI, 17.7-17.8%) to 19.4% (95% CI, 19.3-19.4%); in regional areas, it increased from 25.0% (95% CI, 25.0-25.1%) to 29.1% (95% CI, 29.0-29.2%). The increase in prevalence of obesity was greater among women living in the lowest socio-economic standing (Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage) quintile than for those residing in the quintile of least disadvantage (adjusted rate ratio, 2.16; 95% CI, 2.12-2.20). CONCLUSION: The proportion of births to Victorian women with obesity rose during 2010-2019, particularly in regional areas. Ensuring that regional health services are adequately resourced to meet the needs of the increasing number of women at risk of obesity during pregnancy is vital.

Serosurvey for Japanese encephalitis virus antibodies following an outbreak in an immunologically naïve population, Victoria, 2022: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the distribution and prevalence of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) antibody (as evidence of past infection) in northern Victoria following the 2022 Japanese encephalitis outbreak, seeking to identify groups of people at particular risk of infection; to investigate the distribution and prevalence of antibodies to two related flaviviruses, Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) and West Nile virus Kunjin subtype (KUNV). STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional serosurvey (part of a national JEV serosurveillance program). SETTING: Three northern Victorian local public health units (Ovens Murray, Goulburn Valley, Loddon Mallee), 8 August - 1 December 2022. PARTICIPANTS: People opportunistically recruited at pathology collection centres and by targeted recruitment through community outreach and advertisements. People vaccinated against or who had been diagnosed with Japanese encephalitis were ineligible for participation, as were those born in countries where JEV is endemic. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Seroprevalence of JEV IgG antibody, overall and by selected factors of interest (occupations, water body exposure, recreational activities and locations, exposure to animals, protective measures). RESULTS: 813 participants were recruited (median age, 59 years [interquartile range, 42-69 years]; 496 female [61%]); 27 were JEV IgG-seropositive (3.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2-4.8%) (median age, 73 years [interquartile range, 63-78 years]; 13 female [48%]); none were IgM-seropositive. JEV IgG-seropositive participants were identified at all recruitment locations, including those without identified cases of Japanese encephalitis. The only risk factors associated with JEV IgG-seropositivity were age (per year: prevalence odds ratio [POR], 1.07; 95% CI, 1.03-1.10) and exposure to feral pigs (POR, 21; 95% CI, 1.7-190). The seroprevalence of antibody to MVEV was 3.0% (95% CI, 1.9-4.5%; 23 of 760 participants), and of KUNV antibody 3.3% (95% CI, 2.1-4.8%; 25 of 761). CONCLUSIONS: People living in northern Victoria are vulnerable to future JEV infection, but few risk factors are consistently associated with infection. Additional prevention strategies, including expanding vaccine eligibility, may be required to protect people in this region from Japanese encephalitis.

Trends in diabetic ketoacidosis in Victoria, Australia 2002-2016.

BACKGROUND: International longitudinal studies have indicated an increasing incidence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA). We aim to examine the incident trends, demographic differences, length of stay and mortality for DKA in adults with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Victoria, Australia from 2002 to 2016. METHODS: Age and sex adjusted incident trends, length of stay and mortality for DKA was retrospectively obtained using the Victorian Admitted Episode Dataset between 2002 and 2016. Data for adults with T1D and T2D was obtained from the National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify changes in linear trends that were described as average annual percentage change (AAPC). RESULTS: There were 23,628 DKA presentations in Victoria between 2002 and 2016. For T1D there was an increase in DKA presentations (AAPC + 6.8%) from 2003 to 2016 and for T2D there was a decline from 2003 to 2011 (APC - 3.5%), increase from 2011 to 2014 (APC + 38.5%), and a decrease from 2014 to 2016 (APC - 20.9%). Length of stay was longer for people with T2D than T1D (P < 0.001) and the mortality rate was 0.51% for the study period. CONCLUSIONS: DKA rates increased for T2D from 2011 to 2014 which correlates with the introduction of sodium glucose-linked transport protein 2 inhibitors. However, the aetiology for the observed increase in T1D from 2002 to 2016 remains unknown.

Effects of private health insurance on waiting time in public hospitals.

The Australian government pays $6.7 billion per year in rebates to encourage Australians to purchase private health insurance (PHI) and an additional $6.1 billion to cover services provided in private hospitals. What is the justification for large government subsidies to a private industry when all Australians already have free coverage under Medicare? The government argues that more people buying PHI will relieve the burden on the public system and may reduce waiting times. However, the evidence supporting this is sparse. We use an instrumental variable approach to study the causal effects of higher PHI coverage in the area on waiting times in public hospitals in the same area. The instrument used is area-level average house prices, which correlate with average income and wealth, thus influencing the purchase of PHI due to tax incentives, but not directly affecting waiting times in public hospitals. We use 2014-2018 hospital admission and elective surgery waiting list data linked at the patient level from the Victorian Center for Data Linkage. These data cover all inpatient admissions in all hospitals in Victoria (both public and private hospitals) and those registered on the waiting list for elective surgeries in public hospitals in Victoria. We find that one percentage point increase in PHI coverage leads to about 0.34 days (or 0.5%) reduction in waiting times in public hospitals on average. The effects vary by surgical specialities and age groups. However, the practical significance of this effect is limited, if not negligible, despite its statistical significance. The small effect suggests that raising PHI coverage with the aim to taking the pressure off the public system is not an effective strategy in reducing waiting times in public hospitals. Alternative policies aiming at improving the efficiency of public hospitals and advancing equitable access to care should be a priority for policymakers.

Isolation and characterization of enterococci from poultry reveals high incidence of Enterococcus thailandicus in Victoria, Australia.

AIMS: Antibiotic resistance is a global health crisis. Roughly two-thirds of all antibiotics used are in production animals, which have the potential to impact the development of antibiotic resistance in bacterial pathogens of humans. There is little visibility on the extent of antibiotic resistance in the Australian food chain. This study sought to establish the incidence of antibiotic resistance among enterococci from poultry in Victoria. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 2016, poultry from a Victorian processing facility were swabbed immediately post-slaughter and cultured for Enterococcus species. All isolates recovered were speciated and tested for antibiotic susceptibility to 12 antibiotics following the Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute guidelines. A total of 6 farms and 207 birds were sampled and from these 285 isolates of Enterococcus were recovered. Eight different enterococcal species were identified as follows: E. faecalis (n = 122; 43%), E. faecium (n = 92; 32%), E. durans (n = 35; 12%), E. thailandicus (n = 23; 8%), E. hirae (n = 10; 3%), and a single each of E. avium, E. gallinarum, and E. mundtii. Reduced susceptibility to older classes of antibiotics was common, in particular: erythromycin (73%), rifampin (49%), nitrofurantoin (40%), and ciprofloxacin (39%). Two vancomycin-intermediate isolates were recovered, but no resistance was detected to either linezolid or gentamicin. CONCLUSIONS: The relatively high numbers of a recently described species, E. thailandicus, suggest this species might be well adapted to colonize poultry. The incidence of antibiotic resistance is lower in isolates from poultry than in human medicine in Australia. These results suggest that poultry may serve as a reservoir for older antibiotic resistance genes but is not driving the emergence of antimicrobial resistance in human bacterial pathogens. This is supported by the absence of resistance to linezolid and gentamicin.

Multimorbidity impacts cardiovascular disease risk following percutaneous coronary intervention: latent class analysis of the Melbourne Interventional Group (MIG) registry.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is strongly associated with disability or functional decline, poor quality of life and high consumption of health care services. This study aimed (1) To identify patterns of multimorbidity among patients undergoing first recorded percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); (2) To explore the association between the identified patterns of multimorbidity on length of hospital stay, 30-day and 12- month risk of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) after PCI. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of the Melbourne Interventional Group (MIG) registry. This study included 14,025 participants who underwent their first PCI from 2005 to 2015 in Victoria, Australia. Based on a probabilistic modelling approach, Latent class analysis was adopted to classify clusters of people who shared similar combinations and magnitude of the comorbidity of interest. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odd ratios and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the 30-day and 12-month MACCE. RESULTS: More than two-thirds of patients had multimorbidity, with the most prevalent conditions being hypertension (59%) and dyslipidaemia (60%). Four distinctive multimorbidity clusters were identified each with significant associations for higher risk of 30-day and 12-month MACCE. The cluster B had the highest risk of 30-day MACCE event that was characterised by a high prevalence of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (92%), hypertension (73%) and reduced ejection fraction (EF) (57%). The cluster C, characterised by a high prevalence of hypertension (94%), dyslipidaemia (88%), reduced eGFR (87%), diabetes (73%) and reduced EF (65%) had the highest risk of 12-month MACCE and highest length of hospital stay. CONCLUSION: Hypertension and dyslipidaemia are prevalent in at least four in ten patients undergoing coronary angioplasty. This study showed that clusters of patients with multimorbidity had significantly different risk of 30-day and 12-month MACCE after PCI. This suggests the necessity for treatment approaches that are more personalised and customised to enhance patient outcomes and the quality of care delivered to patients in various comorbidity clusters. These results should be validated in a prospective cohort and to evaluate the potential impacts of these clusters on the prevention of MACCE after PCI.

Data-driven collaborative QUality improvement in Cardiac Rehabilitation (QUICR) to increase program completion: protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of deaths and disability worldwide. Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) effectively reduces the risk of future cardiac events and is strongly recommended in international clinical guidelines. However, CR program quality is highly variable with divergent data systems, which, when combined, potentially contribute to persistently low completion rates. The QUality Improvement in Cardiac Rehabilitation (QUICR) trial aims to determine whether a data-driven collaborative quality improvement intervention delivered at the program level over 12 months: (1) increases CR program completion in eligible patients with CHD (primary outcome), (2) reduces hospital admissions, emergency department presentations and deaths, and costs, (3) improves the proportion of patients receiving guideline-indicated CR according to national and international benchmarks, and (4) is feasible and sustainable for CR staff to implement routinely. METHODS: QUICR is a multi-centre, type-2, hybrid effectiveness-implementation cluster-randomized controlled trial (cRCT) with 12-month follow-up. Eligible CR programs (n = 40) and the individual patient data within them (n ~ 2,000) recruited from two Australian states (New South Wales and Victoria) are randomized 1:1 to the intervention (collaborative quality improvement intervention that uses data to identify and manage gaps in care) or control (usual care with data collection only). This sample size is required to achieve 80% power to detect a difference in completion rate of 22%. Outcomes will be assessed using intention-to-treat principles. Mixed-effects linear and logistic regression models accounting for clusters within allocated groupings will be applied to analyse primary and secondary outcomes. DISCUSSION: Addressing poor participation in CR by patients with CHD has been a longstanding challenge that needs innovative strategies to change the status-quo. This trial will harness the collaborative power of CR programs working simultaneously on common problem areas and using local data to drive performance. The use of data linkage for collection of outcomes offers an efficient way to evaluate this intervention and support the improvement of health service delivery. ETHICS: Primary ethical approval was obtained from the Northern Sydney Local Health District Human Research Ethics Committee (2023/ETH01093), along with site-specific governance approvals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12623001239651 (30/11/2023) ( https://anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=386540&isReview=true ).